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Wednesday, January 11, 2017

Rumors And Rumblings: GM Moore Making Best Of Royals’ Situation

The Royals have traded two of their would-be free agents, shipping closer Wade Davis to the Chicago Cubs for outfielder Jorge Soler during the Winter Meetings last month then dealing outfielder Jarrod Dyson to the Seattle Mariners for right-hander Nate Karns last Friday.

Soler and Karns are not sure things, but both have a certain amount of upside.

Jim Furtado Posted: January 11, 2017 at 06:24 AM | 22 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: notes, royals

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   1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 11, 2017 at 11:00 AM (#5381563)
I think the strategy of "extend your window while trying to win in 2017" is stupid, but if that's your strategy, getting Karns and Soler and giving up Davis and Dyson seems like the best way to do it. It probably makes the 2017 teams slightly worse while giving you some long-term players with decent upside.

But given his financial constraints, I would have been fine with a proper teardown and rebuild. And I think its stupid Glass is giving him financial constraints.
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 11, 2017 at 11:49 AM (#5381616)
But given his financial constraints, I would have been fine with a proper teardown and rebuild.

The problem is, what is there to tear down?

Most of their expensive players are coming off down/injured years (Gordon, Moustaka, Cain, Hosmer, Volquez, Soria) or are just plain bad (Escobar). I can't see who you could trade now that would bring bacvk anything of note.

Might as well wait for July, and hope they can rebuild value.
   3. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: January 11, 2017 at 12:10 PM (#5381638)
Yeah--2018 is looking like it's going to be a real awful time in KC. Cain, Hosmer, Moustakas Duffy, and Escobar are all on the way out--maybe they can re-sign or extend one of them, but they're gonna have a ton of spots to fill and no prospects to fill them with.

In many ways, the Royals' team right now reminds me of the Twins' team after the 2010 season. In 2010 the Twins went 94-68 and won the AL Central, but after they lost in the ALDS, they should have looked in the mirror and seen that they were an old team that was getting older, and their once great farm system had dried up and there were no prospects in the pipeline. Checking out their BB-Ref page, this is how much team control their stars had remaining right after their 2010 season ended:

* Carl Pavano, Jim Thome, Orlando Hudson, Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, Nick Punto, (all free agents)
* Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, JJ Hardy (free agents after 2011)
* Delmon Young, Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey (free agents after 2012)

So how did they handle it?

* They re-signed Pavano and Thome, but let the other 4 guys--who combined for over 8 bWAR in 2010--depart via free agency.
* They traded JJ Hardy to the Orioles for two prospects who didn't pan out.
* And.....they held on to everyone else.


2011 was an absolute disaster, in ways that no one could have (or should have) predicted, as everyone got injured and they lost 99 games. But even if things had gone well, their ceiling couldn't have been more than 80 wins. But they kept the crew in tact to make that push, and....well, you've seen how things have gone since then in the Twin Cities. That was their one shot to salvage the future by trading their veterans for young players, and all they had to show for it was Brett Jacobson and Jim Hoey.

The 2016-17 Royals have already done better than that, which is good--Karns and Soler are already productive Major Leaguers--but there's definitely a big part of me that hopes they still have one more trade like that in them. Because otherwise we're in for many years of pathetic baseball after this year.
   4. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 11, 2017 at 12:28 PM (#5381667)
I can't see who you could trade now that would bring bacvk anything of note.


Hosmer and Duffy could get a pretty good haul. I think Cain still gets you a good haul. Could probably get something decent for Moose, although maybe teams want to see his knee in action first. Heck, if you were going to tear it down, you could dangle Kelvin Herrera, and with this reliever market, get a very good package for him.

I think you can get more for them now, than waiting til July (more suitors, acquiring team gets a draft pick)
   5. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 11, 2017 at 12:38 PM (#5381678)
getting Karns and Soler and giving up Davis and Dyson seems like the best way to do it


The only thing getting Karns is good for is giving up a lot of run in the fifth inning like clockwork.
   6. Mike Webber Posted: January 11, 2017 at 12:49 PM (#5381685)
@3 - Jeez Davo, that's making me want to find a bottle of rye and get smashed. Don't send that to an Royals fan who is having a little seasonal depression, they'd hang themselves.

I'm not saying you are wrong BTW.
   7. DL from MN Posted: January 11, 2017 at 12:56 PM (#5381692)
Regarding the 2011 Twins -JJ Hardy was traded (at low value) because they thought they had something in Tsuyoshi Nishioka. This was an absolute disaster of a move and probably got Bill Smith fired.

They were right to dump Rauch, Hudson and Guerrier in hindsight. Punto somehow had an awesome 2011. They should have kept Crain instead of paying Matt Capps.
   8. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: January 11, 2017 at 12:56 PM (#5381693)
In an offseason where the best available free agent starter is Jeremy Hellickson, yeah, Danny Duffy should get them a very nice return, I would suspect. (On the other hand, though, is that Duffy is the pending free agent who seems most likely to sign an extension to stay in KC, if the rumor mill is accurate.)
   9. Topher Posted: January 11, 2017 at 01:08 PM (#5381704)
I think the strategy of "extend your window while trying to win in 2017" is stupid


I pay a fair amount of attention to KC. As it relates to on the field success, I think this is stupid as well. But is it fair to say that keeping the window extended* is the most important thing that Dayton Moore can do with the current tv deal expiring after the 2019 season? I would think that a team that wins 81 games in 2017, 2018, 2019 is likely to get a much better tv deal than a team that wins 90 in 2017 and then plummets to 65 wins in 2018 and 2019.

* I do question if it really is possible to extend the window given the poor farm system and the number of 2017 free agents, but for purposes of this discussion I'll assume it can be done.

(And apologies if you've discussed this on your website. I used to pay attention to Royals Review but I'm one of 17 people that still relies on RSS and sbnation is quite poor at supporting the format.)
   10. Topher Posted: January 11, 2017 at 01:10 PM (#5381707)
I also agree with snapper. I think the trade value of the Royals roster is almost uniformly at a low point. That's a problem in and of itself. But I also think (just my gut instinct) that Moore is the type of GM that is likely to overvalue his guys due to the intangibles they bring. So even if he was looking to trade, I doubt he finds too many partners willing to give him what he wants.
   11. Topher Posted: January 11, 2017 at 01:44 PM (#5381731)
Because I don't feel like working today, I just took a peak at the playoff odds and wanted to figure out how many contenders would even be interested in trading for a Royals player that will be a free agent after next season.

Even if the Royals were interested in a fire sale, it would be awfully tough to find too many interested teams.

I made very quick yes/no judgements so some of these are probably wrong. But in general, contenders don't want the Royals' players.

One thing I will say that surprised me was that there don't seem to be too many outfields that could really use Lorenzo Cain. On the flip side, I thought that very few, if any, contenders would have any use for Hosmer but it turns out that's a pretty mediocre position. And the only reason why I said the Red Sox wouldn't want Hosmer is due to them just acquiring Moreland, not that Moreland is the better player.


Team         Cain      Duffy     Escobar     Hosmer      Moustakas     Vargas
Cubs         Maybe     Yes       No          No          No            No
Red Sox      No        Maybe     No          No          Maybe         No
Indians      Yes       No        No          No          No            No
Nationals    No        No        No          Zimmerman   No            No
Astros       No        Yes       No          Yes         No            No
Dodgers      No        No
?       No          No          No            No
Giants       Yes       Yes       No          No          No            No
Mets         No        No        No          Yes         Wright        No
Yankees      No        Yes       No          Yes         Yes           No
Blue Jays    Yes       No        No          Yes         No            No
Rangers      No        Yes       No          Yes         No            No
Cardinals    No        No        No          No          Yes           No
Mariners     No        Yes       No          Yes         No            No
Tigers       Yes       Yes       No          No          Yes           No
Orioles      Yes       Yes       No          No          No            No 
   12. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 11, 2017 at 02:00 PM (#5381743)
One thing I will say that surprised me was that there don't seem to be too many outfields that could really use Lorenzo Cain. On the flip side, I thought that very few, if any, contenders would have any use for Hosmer but it turns out that's a pretty mediocre position. And the only reason why I said the Red Sox wouldn't want Hosmer is due to them just acquiring Moreland, not that Moreland is the better player.

I can't see the Yankees being interested in Hosmer or Moustakas.

They're committed to seeing if Greg Bird and/or Tyler Austin can handle 1st. They've got Headley occupying 3rd, and two top IF prospects in AA.

Duffy yes, if they can extend him.
   13. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: January 11, 2017 at 02:03 PM (#5381747)
Danny Duffy is a solid #2 starter (career ERA+ of 112, 124 over the last 3 years) on a 1-year, $8,000,000 contract. Every team in the league should be interested in him at that price.
   14. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 11, 2017 at 02:06 PM (#5381750)
But is it fair to say that keeping the window extended* is the most important thing that Dayton Moore can do with the current tv deal expiring after the 2019 season?


Perhaps, although I think TV deals are set mostly on the # of viewers (which KC doesn't have a ton of), and the Royals had decent TV ratings even when the team stunk.

FWIW, the Cardinals and Mets were reportedly interested in Cain earlier this winter.
   15. Topher Posted: January 11, 2017 at 02:34 PM (#5381771)
Davo - any team that I said no for Duffy was one that I assumed had enough depth in the rotation that they wouldn't want to give up the prospects to get Duffy. But yes, in a world of unlimited prospects to trade, every team could use Danny Duffy on their roster.
   16. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 11, 2017 at 02:43 PM (#5381787)
FWIW, the Cardinals and Mets were reportedly interested in Cain earlier this winter.

Sure, you could trade him. But he's coming off a 2.5 WAR, injury plagued year, after 2 5-6 WAR years.

If he has a great 1st half, you'll get way more for him than you will now.
   17. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 11, 2017 at 03:17 PM (#5381833)

Sure, you could trade him. But he's coming off a 2.5 WAR, injury plagued year, after 2 5-6 WAR years.

If he has a great 1st half, you'll get way more for him than you will now.


Would you? He's always had a history of injuries. I don't know what would change between now and July. It was a wrist injury that ended his year last year. I guess there's a chance that could carry over to this year so teams would want to see him swing a bat, but I still think the draft pick compensation would allow you to get a better return this winter.
   18. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 11, 2017 at 03:53 PM (#5381877)
Would you? He's always had a history of injuries. I don't know what would change between now and July. It was a wrist injury that ended his year last year. I guess there's a chance that could carry over to this year so teams would want to see him swing a bat, but I still think the draft pick compensation would allow you to get a better return this winter.

I don't think there is any draft opick compensation in the new CBA.
   19. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 11, 2017 at 04:22 PM (#5381909)
There is. Teams would get a pick at the end of the first round if the departing FA signs a $50 million+ contract and the compensated team is not over the luxury tax. If he signs for less than $50 mill, they get a pick at the end of the 2nd round.
   20. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 11, 2017 at 04:31 PM (#5381924)
There is. Teams would get a pick at the end of the first round if the departing FA signs a $50 million+ contract and the compensated team is not over the luxury tax. If he signs for less than $50 mill, they get a pick at the end of the 2nd round.

Learn something new every day!
   21. Zach Posted: January 11, 2017 at 05:58 PM (#5381998)
A teardown/rebuild makes sense on paper, but it's not Dayton's style. He was a "stopgaps for now, prospects for the future" guy from his very first year, when they didn't have any stopgaps or any prospects, either.

If you really wanted to do a teardown, the time to start was last year, when they resigned Alex Gordon instead of letting him go. But could you really do that right after two consecutive pennants and a World Series? Unless you're confident the new squad will be right back in the thick of things, I think you need to keep the core together until it's obvious they can't compete any more. Otherwise how can you ask the fans to stick with you through another long rebuilding process?

Royals fans spent a long time in the cold after 1985, but they didn't dismantle the team in 1986, either.
   22. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: January 11, 2017 at 06:16 PM (#5382012)
Building on my post in #3, I made a list of every single minor leaguer in the Twins' system at the end of the 2010 season who would go/has gone on to play in the Majors (for more than a cup of coffee):

Hitters

Brian Dozier
Miguel Sano
Trevor Plouffe
Ben Revere
Yangervis Solarte
Max Kepler
Eddie Rosario
Aaron Hicks
Chris Herrmann
Oswaldo Arcia
Jorge Polanco
Kennys Vargas

Pitchers

Kyle Gibson
Liam Hendriks
Jeff Manship
Anthony Swarzak
Michael Tonkin
Alex Burnett
Deolis Guerra
AJ Achter
Ryan O'Rourke

...Yeah, it's easy to see why the last 5 years have been so terrible! (I imagine that position player list is better than average, but on the pitching side.....a 4th starter, a decent middle reliever, and then a bunch of mop-up guys. Yuck!)

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