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Sunday, January 29, 2012

Ryan Howard’s contract looks good to Amaro

Hell…Brill’s Content and Talk looked good to me at one point. So there’s that.

“I’m kind of happy,” Amaro said. “Really happy because if I would’ve had to put eight or nine years on Howard’s deal right now, that would be a little disconcerting. Right now we have Howard for the next five years. I kind of like that rather than giving an eight-, nine- or 10-year deal.”

...Amaro has been criticized for Howard’s contract - it’s worth $25 million per season compared to $24 million for Pujols and $23.7 million for Fielder - and that was before the first baseman tore his Achilles’ tendon making the final out in the team’s NLDS loss to St. Louis.

“He’s still, say what you want about Ryan Howard and how he stacks up against those guys, but there’s not too many people who over the last several years that have had this kind of production and he’s right there with those guys,” Amaro said.

...The numbers are comparable, though Howard ranks third in all but home runs. Amaro, however, said he doesn’t see the Big Piece on the downside of his career.

“I think that Ryan’s the kind of guy - this is one of the reasons we signed him to two long-term deals - even when we signed him to a multi-year deal he got himself in better shape than he’s ever gotten himself into,” Amaro said. “There’s always a fear that guys get complacent. That’s not what we’re going to get out of Ryan. I know Ryan. Ryan’s desire to be successful remains very high. I know there was no one more upset with the way things ended the last couple of years than he is. I think he’s going to be as productive a player as he has been in the past and even more so at times.”

Repoz Posted: January 29, 2012 at 01:33 AM | 26 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, phillies, projections, sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Howie Menckel Posted: January 29, 2012 at 02:09 AM (#4048595)

Wow, that is one impressive whistling in the graveyard.


   2. ValueArbitrageur Posted: January 29, 2012 at 02:51 AM (#4048599)
According to FanGraphs, Howard has been worth $13m the last two years.

Not per year, total.

And now he tears an important ligament. My guess is he never sniffs 2 WAR in a season again, and is waived either in 2013 or 2014.
   3. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: January 29, 2012 at 02:55 AM (#4048600)
The 'Big Piece'? Nicknames these days suck.
   4. Shock Posted: January 29, 2012 at 04:21 AM (#4048608)
it’s worth $25 million per season compared to $24 million for Pujols


Whoa.

Can we just...

it’s worth $25 million per season compared to $24 million for Pujols


Whoa.
   5. Athletic Supporter leads the nation in drifters Posted: January 29, 2012 at 04:40 AM (#4048611)
What are you expecting him to say? "I ###### up and now we're stuck with a shitty player on an expensive contract"? No matter what he thinks, it has to be right to put out some boilerplate rather than throwing Howard under the bus.
   6. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: January 29, 2012 at 04:46 AM (#4048612)
Howard vs. a bus is an evenly matched fight.
   7. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: January 29, 2012 at 05:00 AM (#4048613)
And now he tears an important ligament. My guess is he never sniffs 2 WAR in a season again, and is waived either in 2013 or 2014.


Football players make complete recoveries from achilles tears.
   8. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 29, 2012 at 07:34 AM (#4048618)
What are you expecting him to say?


How about "No comment"?
   9. JPWF1313 Posted: January 29, 2012 at 07:47 AM (#4048620)
He'll recover, he will have missed a year be a year older and put up a 120s or so OPS+ with 100the ribbies which will let the fillies pretend he's worth the monies. It is going to get ugly when he misses 20 games a year and/or has less baserunners than usual and puts. Up mediocre traditional stats
   10. Textbook Editor Posted: January 29, 2012 at 11:35 AM (#4048668)
Well, in the narrowest sense, Amaro is right: Having Howard for 5/$125 now because he was an idiot a few years ago is better than Amaro being an idiot today and signing Howard for 8/$200.

So being an idiot in the past "saved" him from being a really big idiot today and signing Howard to an even more insane contract.

That's introspection, I guess...
   11. A Random 8-Year-Old Eskimo Posted: January 29, 2012 at 11:37 AM (#4048669)
#5 is exactly right. It's unclear whether Amaro realizes the Howard contract was an incredible mistake, but I wouldn't conclude that he doesn't just because he stands up for his player and the contract in public.

Maybe he's casting his fishing rod to see if there's another Tony Reagins out there who will give it a nibble.
   12. tfbg9 Posted: January 29, 2012 at 12:29 PM (#4048683)
Howard's got the most oppo power I've ever seen. Not that this has much to do with the thread, but I've never seen a guy drive such no-doubter HR's the other way with such ease as he.
   13. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: January 29, 2012 at 12:58 PM (#4048694)
Football players make complete recoveries from achilles tears.


Some of them do.
   14. ValueArbitrageur Posted: January 29, 2012 at 01:16 PM (#4048702)
Football players make complete recoveries from achilles tears.


I was going by fWAR, which thinks Ryan was worth 1.4 and 1.6 WAR the last two years, as a younger player and without dealing with a dicey injury like that.

bWAR likes him a bit better, giving 2.0 and 2.7 WAR the last two years.

Clearly there was a little hyperbole in my statement, there is enough natural variance in players results that it won't be surprising if he puts it together one last time and squeezes out 3 or 4 WAR in a season. But next year he'll be 32, recovering from the achilles tear, and is coming off two consecutive years that smell suspiciously like he's due for a complete collapse.

I'm thinking collapse is a bit more likely than a rebound.
   15. Gotham Dave Posted: January 29, 2012 at 01:21 PM (#4048704)
I can't think of a similar slugger to Howard who was regarded as a big star despite being, all things considered, not very valuable. Brock probably had a similar disconnect between his perception and actual value for most of his career. I don't think Joe Carter was nearly as well regarded as Howard but he was certainly considered a star, and was inferior to Howard (though not by a ton). Rice comes to mind, but had three consecutive elite seasons while Howard has had two(ish), three years apart.

Carter is probably the best comparison, considering his perception also largely was derived from gaudy HR/RBI totals.

I'm super, super annoyed that I fell into the sportswriter trap of all of these comparisons also being black players.
   16. Jacob Posted: January 29, 2012 at 01:35 PM (#4048714)
Howard's got the most oppo power I've ever seen.


Thanks to Subway!
   17. Greg (U)K Posted: January 29, 2012 at 03:00 PM (#4048756)
I'm super, super annoyed that I fell into the sportswriter trap of all of these comparisons also being black players.

Maybe Juan Gonzalez for the hispanics.
And for the white folks...I don't know. Jay Buhner? Paul O'Neill? Danny Tartabull (not white enough) and Keith Hernandez (actually quite good) don't really fit but they get Seinfeld mentions too.

I guess a comprehensive list of baseball players mentioned or featured in Seinfeld would also include
Roger McDowell
Joe Pepitone
Joe DiMaggio
Babe Ruth
Mickey Mantle
Derek Jeter
Bernie Williams
Ken Phelps
Ken Griffey Jr.
Barry Bonds

I'm sure I'm forgetting a bunch.
   18. Sam Hutcheson is the Rickey Henderson of... Posted: January 29, 2012 at 03:15 PM (#4048763)
Howard's got the most oppo power I've ever seen. Not that this has much to do with the thread, but I've never seen a guy drive such no-doubter HR's the other way with such ease as he.


Barry Lamar scoffs at you.
   19. Walt Davis Posted: January 29, 2012 at 03:35 PM (#4048777)
Yep, Juan Gone is the closest comp to Howard. Kingman comes close but Kingman (a) wasn't nearly the hitter Howard is and (b) was kinda famous but didn't have nearly as positive a rep as Howard.

Hmmm ... Mattingly is not a bad "rep" comp but, at his peak, he was a lot more deserving of the praise than Howard. Still "best player in baseball"?

Steve Garvey during his playing days is also a good Howard comp but even Garvey at least had a 5-year stretch over 20 WAR.

Holy crap! 1978 Larry Bowa had 5.1 WAR.
   20. AROM Posted: January 29, 2012 at 03:37 PM (#4048778)
"I can't think of a similar slugger to Howard who was regarded as a big star despite being, all things considered, not very valuable. "

Cecil Fielder. Highest paid in the game for a little while.
   21. Slivers of Maranville (SdeB) Posted: January 29, 2012 at 05:10 PM (#4048821)

I guess a comprehensive list of baseball players mentioned or featured in Seinfeld would also include


You mean there isn't already a Wikipedia article on that topic?
   22. Jonk Posted: January 29, 2012 at 07:17 PM (#4048883)
Football players make complete recoveries from achilles tears.
Complete? Rarely.
   23. tigertears Posted: January 29, 2012 at 09:10 PM (#4048929)
Cecil Fielder is a terrific comp. Dave Parker is worth a mention. Kingman was always considered a freak show, not a great player.
   24. Roger McDowell spit on me! Posted: January 29, 2012 at 09:18 PM (#4048935)
I'm sure I'm forgetting a bunch.

Phil Rizzuto - Holy Cow!
   25. Textbook Editor Posted: January 29, 2012 at 09:35 PM (#4048944)
Holy crap! 1978 Larry Bowa had 5.1 WAR.


And finished 3rd in the MVP voting!
   26. Nasty Nate Posted: January 30, 2012 at 11:49 PM (#4050082)
I'm sure I'm forgetting a bunch.


Danny Tartabull
Paul O'Neil

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