There is, I believe, a very real chance that no one will be elected this year. I find this fascinating because of the 37 names on the 2013 ballot, I consider 21 to be quite legitimate candidates (Woody Williams? Ah, I don’t think so). What the ballot lacks is a drop-dead newcomer, although there should be one were it not for the fact that he, too, is under suspicion.
I am speaking, of course, of Mike Piazza, who may very well be the greatest hitting catcher of all time, but who, despite the lack of any concrete evidence, is regarded as a cheater by some because he flunked the Eyeball Test. See? This is why the drug issue is so insidious. Unless a McGwire or Palmeiro ’fesses up, we’re all guessing, however well-educated those guesses are. There is no reason to avoid voting for Piazza, whose overwhelming credentials include 427 homers, 1,335 RBIs, .922 OBP, 12 All-Star Games), other than the fact that he looked like a steroid guy.
Jeff Bagwell’s résumé is similarly persuasive (449 homers, 1,529 RBIs, .948 OBP), but, he, too, failed to pass the Eyeball Test. He went from 41.7 percent of the vote two years ago to 56.0 last year. Obviously, a few voters revised their opinion of his candidacy upward. Understand that going from 56 percent to the needed 75 in one year is not likely.
...The Morris candidacy has become extremely controversial, his advocates being old-line baseball sorts who view him as the quintessential gun-slinging Ace of the Staff (14 Opening Day starts) and his detractors being Sabermetric zealots who decry a 3.90 career ERA that would be the highest ever to be so enshrined, and who discredit the notion that he pitched to the score, thus accounting for an inflated ERA. I wasn’t always a yes man. But I became one several years ago and I hope he gets in.
Summing it up: Yes to Bagwell, Biggio, Martinez, Morris, Piazza, Raines, and Schilling. Sorry to anyone else not named Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, McGwire, and Palmeiro.
Repoz
Posted: December 15, 2012 at 09:39 AM |
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1. DarrenI agree, it's unfair that Sosa is treated this way...oh.
Plus, unless I missed it, Palmeiro has never "'fessed up". Doesn't he continue to deny?
Yes, I get the difference, but the author doesn't seem to. Or is using lazy shorthand, I guess.
Of course the Morris vote really diminishes the quality of the ballot, but that ship has sailed.
While not as solid evidence as MLB announcing it, the NYT reported that Sosa failed the 2003 test.
I had both Sosa and Clemens on my HOM/HOF ballot, as well as Bagwell and Piazza. If there's any real evidence that any of those four were juicers, I've yet to see it produced.
Too, Morris and Raines are not good choices. There are better players to choose.
I think the evidence for Clemens is strong enough that a voter can legitimately feel qualified in not voting for him(it's not strong enough for me to say he's guilty, but there is a reason a trial has 12 jurors, it doesn't take as much convincing for everyone) I do not think there is enough evidence to put Sosa in that light, but I understand the innuendo is pretty strong in regards to Sosa. It's enough of a distinction going from Sosa to Piazza that I can see the line being drawn there. I think it's a silly distinction, but it's there.
Agree on Morris, what are the better choices than Raines though? Someone has mentioned Trammell, beyond that who? I wouldn't put Walker or Edgar in before Raines, Lofton's case is too defense numbers oriented to trust, so who is he leaving out?
First, I should say I don't think Raines makes the cut on principle, not just comparatively. But there are some not in the HOF who are better than he is--this is not to say that I think they should be in. Raines's value depends too much on baserunning and on aggregation over a long career. Walker is better. More value over a more concentrated time span. Edgar too, Trammell, McGwire, Palmeiro, Keith Hernandez. Not to mention Bonds, Clemens, and Sosa. But, yeah, the cut for a corner outfield is, or should be, above Raines. If it really mattered to me, I should add.
EDIT: Not to mention guys who are no longer on the ballot.
There are 9 guys on the ballot who (IMO) clearly have a better case than Sosa: Bonds, Clemens, Bagwell, Trammell, Raines, Schilling, Biggio, Walker, and Piazza. That leaves Sosa contending with McGwire, Edgar, Palmeiro, and Lofton for the 10th spot on a full ballot, and I think Sosa only comes out ahead there if you focus on consecutive-years peak.
I'm willing to grant that people are going to apply that standard in different ways, hence I'm not about to get all huffy towards those who come down on this differently from me, but I consider Bonds, Clemens, McGwire, and Palmeiro to be well above such a preponderance, and Sosa right on the line. (As a conservative who also remembers the general caliber of the NY Times' sports reporting in other matters, I'm not inclined to grant them oracular status.) Bagwell and Piazza are safely on the other side: whispers and the plaintive bleats of Murray Chass ain't even close to being enough.
It's a messy moral calculus to be sure, but it's the best I can do to satisfy my conscience. Luckily, it doesn't matter one way or another because I'm just some damn schlub, not a BBWAA voter.
It presumes no such thing. It merely asks the basis for your conclusion, and what conduces against that, and how you reconcile the two. The only thing it presumes is that you are using reason and some evidence.
You didn't answer the questions It has nothing to do directly with particular standards of legal proof. What is the evidence against Clemens--and what contravenes its veracity? Forget about legal standards of proof. Is it enough that someone make accusation? Is that it?
I consider 21 to be quite legitimate candidates
So I left three spots blank.
There is, I believe, a very real chance that no one will be elected this year.
Jeepers, Bob... y'think?
I really think nobody is getting in, and it is not just because of all of the contradictions present between voters. It's also because of all of the contradictions within many individual voters.
In any case, has anyone ever compiled a list of HOF pitchers and their Opening Day starts?
(I love seeing Opening Day and Spring Training capitalized. Wheeee!)
This is the best summary of a no vote for certain players that I've read in quite a while. Preponderance v. Reasonable doubt works very well for me.
As for the NYTimes' reliability, I think questioning it is something people of all political persuasions can get behind.
The BBWAA prefers to use a different Latin principle to arrive at its conclusion, which is taken from Hannibal: aut viam inveniam aut faciam. ("I will either find a way, or I will make one.")
Well ... the NYT had a reporter (Michael Schmidt I believe) who would regularly call and call and call lawyers (or paralegals or personal assistants in charge of copying or ...) who had seen the list until he could get two to say (or not deny or whatever) the same name. Sosa's name was released by the NYT something like 6-12 months after the first big names suggesting it took a lot of calling. To my knowledge, nobody at the NY Times has ever claimed to have seen the actual list of names.
I need something that satisfies my understanding of the 'preponderance of the evidence.'
But what is that evidence in Clemens' case? It's nothing other than the word of McNamee and one conversation with Pettitte. McNamee has changed his story plenty of times so no reasonable person can consider him reliable. And Pettitte himself has said he may have misunderstood the conversation.
I will come back to the basic point though. What everybody needs is some minimal evidence that these people broke the rules. Steroid use was not against the rules of baseball during most of Bonds/Clemens careers and, once steroids were against the rules, they were (to our knowledge) clean.
Even if they shot up with roids every day for 15 years pre-testing, they didn't cheat.
Why is that so hard for people to understand?
If steroid use concerns you, your problem is with MLB and the MLBPA ca 1990-2003 so exact your revenge on MLB and the MLBPA ca 1990-2003 ... good luck with that.
I am fairly certain that MLB does not have a rule on the books that prevents you from abducting an opposing player, and keeping him bound and gagged in your basement for the duration of a game. I would still consider that cheating.
This didn't work out for Harpo and Chico.
It's a matter of principle. Just because it's not against the written rules, it's potentially against the spirit of the game. (Mind you, I cannot fathom how making yourself better to improve your teams chances of winning is against the spirit of the game, but still somehow that is one perception)
The Spirit of the Game, for over 100 years, has been, "If you ain't cheatin', you ain't competin'."
Scuffed balls, corked bats, binocular toting spies stealing signs, watered-down base paths, altered batter's boxes and catcher's boxes and pitcher's mounds, and whatever you could get away with, have always been the order of the day, because "It ain't cheatin' if'n you don't get caught."
That is why baseball is the true National Past-time of this wonderful jay-walking, tax-evading, smuggling, drug-using, Prohibition ignoring, "rules are made to be broken" nation of ours.*
*Edit: One of my favorite example is how Oklahomans are proud of their nickname being Sooners -- meaning people who cheated by sneaking in early.
Which in addition to spitballs, etc. brings us back to greenies which apparently were within the spirit of the game.
Or standard painkillers, etc. It might of course be nothing more than a dodge, but almost all of the players who have admitted use say they did so to overcome injuries and stay healthy. Doing everything you can to take the field is absolutely within the spirit of the game.
I am fairly certain that MLB does not have a rule on the books that prevents you from abducting an opposing player, and keeping him bound and gagged in your basement for the duration of a game.
Alfonso Soriano is available.
Also, if they are in uniform at the time of the abduction, they may violate Rule 3.09:
Players of opposing teams shall not fraternize at any time while in uniform.
Granted, that would perhaps be an overly generous definition of "fraternize."
The current CBA does include:
Players may be disciplined for just cause for conduct that is materially detrimental or materially prejudicial to the best interests of Baseball including, but not limited to, engaging in conduct in violation of federal, state or local law.
Kidnapping is against the law in almost every state ... and given at least one of the players involved probably crossed state lines, it might be a federal case.
I have no idea how long this clause has been in there but I'd imagine it's been in there for some time. Steroid use without a prescription would of course be a violation of the law ... yet I don't think (pre-testing) that any team ever sought to discipline a player for illegal steroid use. They haven't, to my knowledge, sought any discipline for players convicted of DUI or spousal abuse either. They did (try to) discipline some coke users in the 70s-80s though.
Anyway, I think we can all agree that the abduction of ordinary citizens would not fall under the character clause in the HoF voting criteria.
So, yes, he failed a drug test, but his denial is plausible.
This is not quite true. He was (reportedly) asked if he'd done anything unusual along those lines and he said he'd gotten a B-12 shot from Tejada. Palmeiro never claimed the shot was tainted.
The media did its usual fine job. This was the ESPN story. Note the first paragraph:
Rafael Palmeiro said a vitamin he received from Miguel Tejada might have caused the positive test for steroid use that led to the first baseman's suspension
OK, looks a bit like him throwing Tejada under the bus. But, the second paragraph seems to give the "facts" as relayed to them by the source:
Palmeiro said he received vitamin B-12 from Tejada, a person familiar with Palmeiro's unsuccessful grievance hearing to overturn the suspension told The Associated Press Thursday on condition of anonymity because the proceedings were secret.
So, even in the initial "controversy", all that is actually "quoted" is Tejada saying he received B-12 from Tejada. "Tainted" is not attributed to Palmeiro in this story nor is any claim that the shot from Tejada may have caused the test. Maybe he did say that but you can't tell from this mess.
Later in the story:
Beattie said that Palmeiro would issue a statement denying that he accused Tejada of giving him a substance that may have caused a positive test.
and ...
His lawyers, Mayer, Brown, Rowe and Maw LLP, issued a statement Thursday night saying they "are disturbed about the misleading reports being leaked by unnamed sources who claim knowledge of the investigation."
"Rafael Palmeiro has never implicated any player in the intentional use or distribution of steroids, or any other illegal substance, in any interview or testimony," the statement said.
Finally ....
According to the AP's source familiar with the investigation, Palmeiro listed the B-12 as a possible reason for the positive test but did not make any definitive accusation.
which could mean just about anything.
In short, clear as mud.
It would also be interesting to know how much was found. Palmeiro claimed he was clean when tested 3 weeks later, presumably he was clean in any tests prior to that (don't know if there were any) but I don't know how long these things take to clear the system. It's possibly like the Contador case in cycling. At his appeal, Contador suggested it was tainted beef. The ICU (or whoever) claimed that he had blood doped using his own plasma, plasma taken during the offseason when he was roiding ... near as I can tell they presented no real evidence of this.* The appeal panel didn't find either of those very plausible and suggested it was most likely a tainted supplement. The one thing everybody seemed to agree on was that the amount detected was trivial and couldn't be performance-enhancing. He got suspended two years and his TdF title stripped.
* They claimed to have found tiny bits of plastic in his sample which they claimed is common with stored blood (and may well be for all I know). While this might be evidence that he was blood doping, he wasn't accused of blood doping he was accused of roid use. As far as I know they presented no evidence of offseason roiding or that the roids got there via plasma.
EDIT: "Tainted" is not attributed to Palmeiro in this story nor is any claim that the shot from Tejada may have caused the test. Oops! Edit failure. As I later noted in my own post the story does claim Palmeiro listed this as a possible reason (acc to the source). It was deeply enough buried I missed it the first time then meant to go back and correct that bit.
Steroids became a controlled substance in the US in 1990 and were against MLB rules since 1991. Both Bonds and Clemens played a majority of their career after 1991. If they used steroids after 1991, they cheated. If they did so after 1990 they broke the law.
And when MLB goes after pot smokers and the like, then it's an apt comparison.
As to 1991... I really hope you aren't talking about that bogus "cover my ass, because I'm an asshat memo" from Fay Vincent, that didn't and couldn't ban steroids?
Why is that inconsistent... I think Martinez is by far the weakest candidate on his list,(note I block out all votes of Morris to prevent rage) but not sure where the inconsistency comes from.
I do think, he needs to realize that obp and ops are two different stats though.
Didn't this report basically amount to "an anonymous source says that Sosa's name appeared on a list that's never been revealed to the public?"
Not only is that not SOLID evidence, it's not evidence at all.
FTFY
Besides, there are far better reasons to not vote for Sosa for the Hall of Fame. For example, because he speaks Spanish and used an interpreter during his Congressional testimony.
"While not as solid evidence as MLB announcing it, the NYT reported that Sosa failed the 2003 test."
If he did not indeed fail it, that seems like as good a moneymaker as there is - arguably the richest news organization in the country, and clearly your name has been slimed by it.
And if Sosa couldn't have sued for various legal reasons, I would think that expressing anger at that legal limitation from the mountaintop would have been the play there.
Whatever one thinks of the NY Times' newsgathering efforts, one can assume that their attorneys don't allow idle speculation in an actionable case to slide right through...
How much money did Clemens (plus Andy Pettitte and Brian Roberts) collect after the L.A. Times published a false account of Jason Grimsley's statements to the feds, and a U.S. attorney said the story was significantly inaccurate, and a U.S. magistrate branded the report's "manufacturing of facts" as "irresponsible," and the Times issued a public apology? That defamation case was as good a moneymaker as there is.
For a news media organization to defame a public figure requires "actual malice" in the United States. In practice it's basically an impossible standard to meet.
It's something on the order of a willful disregard of known fact(s), and even though what the Times did to Sosa was pretty sleazy, it's hard to see how it could be sued successfully. I think that principle was set down by the Supreme Court nearly 50 years ago in the Sullivan case, IIRC.
--if "controlled substance use" (with or without possible performance enhancing benefits) is the issue, amphetamines have been a controlled substance in the US from 1970 on. Since that date, Mike Schmidt has admitted to their use and Willie Mays has been implicated in their use via John Milner's court testimony. And despite this, nobody cared enough to keep them out of the HoF.
--if "cheating" is the issue, Gaylord Perry and Whitey Ford threw illegal pitches during their careers and John McGraw grabbed base runners belts to impede their progress while playing in the field. And despite this, nobody cared enough to keep them out of the HoF.
--if "against MLB rules" is the issue, there was no formal testing in place with clearly codified penalties for positives re steroids until 2005. For players who tested positive after that time, one might possibly have an argument.
--regardless, no known or suspected steroid user is on the Banned List for PED use.
Really, really old ground for everybody, but the guy that wrote the memo you're indirectly referencing was 100% clear that it didn't apply to members of the PA (as Vincent said in an interview with Maury Brown, at the time their primary focus was cocaine and the PA wasn't giving any ground on that front). It wasn't within his powers to do so.
That's not to say he couldn't discipline for use that was a matter of public record (as for instance he could discipline a player who was busted for coke), but that's it. First offense would likely have required some form of counseling but it was also probable that MLB would get the right for on demand testing for the remainder of a player's career.
It's also worth noting that the same memo references amphetamines. Indeed. treats them exactly the same way.
Incidentally add this to the list of circumstances that make me look like a steroid user. B-12 (doctor's orders).
EDIT: No bacne. My outbreak was mostly on my thighs.
There was also the needle McNamee kept in the Miller Lite can for several years which had traces of both Clemens' DNA and a banned chemical (can't remember if it was hGH or steroid). The prosecution presented a witness who testified that because of the small amount of human DNA on the needle, it would have been impossible for McNamee to have contaminated the sample. I don't recall whether the defense directly contested that fact or presented its own expert to argue that the sample was contaminated or just relied on their many other times showing that McN was a serial liar who admittedly fabricated evidence while serving as a police officer.
Wait, are they crickets I hear?
I mean, we all know that just as to what happened on the field, they qualify. So, what would it be that the HOF would confer on them anyway that they don't have already if it isn't something extra-dimensional? Are they just rubber-stamping what we all know? If so, why would it be such a big deal?
Because apparently it is.
There's something else involved.
No honoring system honors those who compromise the integrity of the thing they are set up to honor. That would be absurd. Suicidal even.
Somehow, I think you and ohthers really want to say either what Shoeless and Shoe in Mouth did was not that bad--it didn't compromise baseball's integrity--or it's time to forgive them for having done so. (Of course, you know that hasn't pass muster historically.) So, which is it? Because what they did does strike at the heart of what makes baseball matter. You can't make them greater without making baseball seem less.
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