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Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Ryan & Sullivan: What are Bill James’ Red Sox projections?

“Bill James doesn’t even like to watch baseball!”

Repoz Posted: January 12, 2011 at 01:33 PM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: books, projections, red sox, sabermetrics

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   1. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 12, 2011 at 02:43 PM (#3728675)
Ryan is saying that because James projects the Red Sox front five to only 60 wins combined, it's a "doom and gloom scenario."

In fact, that's a perfectly normal win total for the front five of a 95-win team. These are recent Sox clubs that won a lot of games - listed team wins, then wins from front five starters:

95 , 57 - 2009 Sox
95 , 58 - 2008 Sox
96 , 68 - 2007 Sox
95 , 62 - 2005 Sox
98 , 73 - 2004 Sox
95 , 60 - 2003 Sox

Ryan didn't used to be an idiot. His brain fell out in direct correlation to the amount of time he spent on talk radio. The format itself is simply evil.

EDIT: I should note that I'm just using the five starters who started the most games for the club. If I looked back at the opening day starting five, the numbers would almost certainly be lower.
   2. Morty Causa Posted: January 12, 2011 at 02:54 PM (#3728680)
How can we have such unemployment when people like this can find work? Ryan is not only stupid; he speaks unclearly. It's like he's got a bag of marbles in his mouth and is in a race to talk as fast he can without thinking.
   3. Dale Sams Posted: January 12, 2011 at 03:29 PM (#3728694)
Thass a perty fancy basement Bill's got himself.
   4. Craig Calcaterra Posted: January 12, 2011 at 04:02 PM (#3728717)
I love the end where they ask how Theo Epstein must feel to hear such heresy. As if Epstein (or any other decent boss) wouldn't want to hear anything that could even be construed as a dissenting voice.
   5. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: January 12, 2011 at 04:28 PM (#3728731)
My prediction: pain.
   6. RobertMachemer Posted: January 12, 2011 at 04:30 PM (#3728733)
The Red Sox are a Stephen J Cannell production?
   7. villageidiom Posted: January 12, 2011 at 05:02 PM (#3728750)
How can we have such unemployment when people like this can find work? Ryan is not only stupid; he speaks unclearly. It's like he's got a bag of marbles in his mouth and is in a race to talk as fast he can without thinking.
Just like some people have a face for radio, Ryan has a voice for newspaper.

And like Bill Simmons, Ryan should stick to basketball.

(Aside: LOL at #6.)
   8. robinred Posted: January 12, 2011 at 05:15 PM (#3728754)
Question: did James run these before Crawford and Gonzalez came to Boston? I notice they didn't mention projections for either of those guys.

I have never heard Ryan talk before. He looks and sounds like Andy Rooney's younger, dumber half-brother. He is actually, or was at least, a pretty good writer.
   9. Mickey Henry Mays Posted: January 12, 2011 at 07:43 PM (#3728885)
Ryan didn't used to be an idiot. His brain fell out in direct correlation to the amount of time he spent on talk radio. The format itself is simply evil.


You're slip is showing.
   10. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 12, 2011 at 08:42 PM (#3728938)
????
   11. BillP Posted: January 12, 2011 at 09:25 PM (#3728973)
I don't understand how this is possible. All cameras should be programmed by now to shut off permanently when someone says something like "can I quote our good friend Dan Shaughnessy."
   12. Dale Sams Posted: January 13, 2011 at 12:03 AM (#3729099)
I don't understand how this is possible. All cameras should be programmed by now to shut off permanently when someone says something like "can I quote our good friend Dan Shaughnessy."


That's my bad. I input "Shank" and "CHB". I didn't know anyone still used his real name.
   13. The District Attorney Posted: January 13, 2011 at 04:16 AM (#3729232)
This is very similar to the "Bill James predicts Jeff Bagwell will win the batting title as a rookie" thing.
   14. Banacek Posted: January 13, 2011 at 04:08 PM (#3729358)
Bill looks svelte in this picture.

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