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Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Ryan Thibs has his HOF Ballot Tracker Up and Running!

Ryan has received his first official ballot, courtesy of Adam Rubib. Ten votes, including Vizquel.

So who gets a higher percentage of vote this year, Trammell with the VC or Vizquel with the BBWAA? (Only partly a tongue-in-cheek question…)

TJ Posted: November 22, 2017 at 02:48 PM | 1652 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame

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   101. Sean Forman Posted: November 26, 2017 at 10:22 PM (#5581277)
DRA thinks Jeter is the anti Christ
   102. PreservedFish Posted: November 26, 2017 at 10:29 PM (#5581278)
Yes, it looks like his conclusion is that Derek Jeter was overall an average shortstop.
   103. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: November 26, 2017 at 11:27 PM (#5581291)
DRA thinks Jeter is the anti Christ


Worse than his -246 rField?
   104. bachslunch Posted: November 27, 2017 at 07:32 AM (#5581308)
Just for the heck of it, thought I would take a look at Omar Vizquel in relation to other SS using BBRef WAR. Interestingly, if you stand on one foot, crane your neck to one side, and squint really hard he kind of/maybe/sort of looks like a bottom rung borderline HoFer. But there are of course lots of caveats -- see below.

Asterisk means in the HoF.

*Honus Wagner. 11749/131.0/151
Alex Rodriguez (N/E). 12207/117.7/140
*Cal Ripken. 1283/95.5/112
*George Davis. 10178/84.7/121
*Robin Yount. 12249/77.0/115
*Ozzie Smith. 10778/76.5/87
Bill Dahlen. 10405/75.2/110
*Luke Appling. 10254/74.5/113
*Arky Vaughan. 7722/72.9/136
Derek Jeter (N/E). 12602/71.8/115
Alan Trammell. 9376/70.4/110
*Barry Larkin. 9057/70.2/116
*Bobby Wallace. 9612/70.2/105
*Ernie Banks. 10394/67.4/122
*Joe Cronin. 8840/66.4/119
*Pee Wee Reese. 9470/66.4/99
*Lou Boudreau. 7025/63.0/120
Jack Glasscock. 7552/61.9/112
*Luis Aparicio. 11230/55.7/82
*Joe Sewell. 8333/53.7/108
*Joe Tinker. 7153/53.2/96
Bert Campaneris. 9625/53.0/89
Jim Fregosi. 7403/48.7/113
*Dave Bancroft. 8249/48.5/98

Other Hall of Famers and Vizquel:

29th Omar Vizquel. 12013/45.3/82
33rd *Travis Jackson. 6681/44.0/102
36th *Rabbit Maranville. 11254/42.8/82
37th *Hughie Jennings. 5648/42.3/118
39th *Phil Rizzuto. 6719/40.8/93
54th *John Ward. 8114/35.6/92
101st *George Wright. 2941/23.2/125
262nd *Leo Durocher. 5829/5.1/66

Of these folks, Jeter is first ballot lock, A-Rod has Hall-worthy numbers but will go nowhere because of PED issues, Durocher is in as a manager, Cronin and Boudreau and Jennings also have significant managerial careers, Ward is a combo candidate who also pitched a lot and served as a manager, and Wright by this approach is a special case whose career was mostly spent in the fledgling National Association (where he was arguably one of the best players of the time).

Vizquel is practically a dead ringer for Maranville. Whether one thinks Vizquel has any kind of HoF case depends on how borderline you think Jackson, Maranville, Jennings, and Rizzuto are. The four players between Bancroft and Vizquel are Art Fletcher, Miguel Tejada, Jimmy Rollins, and Vern Stephens. Rollins might be the only one of these who gets any kind of traction, but maybe not.

There are of course major caveats:

-If you value WAA, Vizquel will be a nonstarter. Somewhat relatedly, he doesn't do very well in WAR7 (ranks 62nd with no HoFers near him), or JAWS (ranks 43rd, again with no HoFers nearby).

-There are far better players at the position whose HoF cases have gone varying degrees of nowhere. In particular, why Trammell dropped into the Veterans pool and Vizquel looks to be getting significant support is puzzling.

-Of the four with similar WAR numbers, Jackson and Rizzuto have about half the number of plate appearances Vizquel has (and this further gives Rizzuto no war credit), Maranville has some narrative pluses Vizquel lacks (as was pointed out in a previous post), and Jennings gets serious managerial credit Vizquel doesn't have.

-Historically, the HoF voters for both regular candidates and Veterans seem to be very generous at SS compared to other positions.

For me, those caveats are enough to keep him out. I tend to be a big-Hall person, but I'm not especially sold on the idea of Jackson, Maranville and Rizzuto as HoFers, and I can't rank Vizquel above them (Jennings makes it over the line for me because of his significant managerial boost). The priority should be to induct Dahlen, Trammell, and Glasscock (and both Campaneris and Fregosi have reasonable arguments as well). Trammell is up on the Veterans ballot this time, and I hope he makes it in.
   105. The Duke Posted: November 27, 2017 at 07:48 AM (#5581309)
trammel might draft on vizquel’s Performance if not this year maybe on the next modern era ballot.
   106. EddieA Posted: November 27, 2017 at 09:01 AM (#5581321)
Vizquel looks even worse in JAWS than in WAR, leading only Wright who was a pioneer.
He is the anti-slugger, anti-saber, some sort of virtue signaling candidate.
   107. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: November 27, 2017 at 09:14 AM (#5581324)
Among players who were SS for 80% or more, giving Vizquel maximum advantage, leaving out among others, ARod, Wagner, Yount, Banks, Ripken..., Vizquel is tied for 50th in WAA, with Bill Russell. Tied for 61st if you include active players.
   108. DanG Posted: November 27, 2017 at 09:46 AM (#5581347)
This is all shortstops with 25-75 WAR, 8250+ PA and OPS+ less than 97:

Player             WARWAAOPSRfeld    PA    H  SB   BA  OBP  SLG
Luis Aparicio      55.7 20.4   82 148.6 11230 2677 506 .262 .311 .343 H
Bert Campaneris    53.0 21.2   89  62.7  9625 2249 649 .259 .311 .342
Jimmy Rollins      46.0 16.4   95  30.5 10240 2455 470 .264 .324 .418
Omar Vizquel       45.3  5.0   82 127.6 12013 2877 404 .272 .336 .352
Roger Peckinpaugh  45.0 13.3   86 100.0  8382 1876 205 .259 .336 .335
Rabbit Maranville  42.8  7.6   82 130.0 11254 2605 291 .258 .318 .340 H
Dick Bartell       40.2 12.3   96  40.0  8739 2165 109 .284 .355 .391
Dave Concepcion    39.8  8.1   88  51.8  9641 2326 321 .267 .322 .357
Maury Wills        39.6 10.5   88   0.4  8306 2134 586 .281 .330 .331
Donie Bush         39.3  7.3   91 
-34.0  8744 1804 406 .250 .356 .300
Herman Long        37.0  9.1   94  72.0  8505 2129 537 .277 .335 .383
Edgar Renteria     32.1  4.4   94 
-21.2  9066 2327 294 .286 .343 .398 

Neither Maranville nor Aparicio has a compelling statistical argument for HOF inclusion, but their cases are stronger than Omar's. And Vizquel has nowhere near the narrative case that those two have.
   109. DanG Posted: November 27, 2017 at 10:08 AM (#5581362)
Who was leading the Tribe in that era? This list goes from 1991, when Belle, Baerga and Nagy emerged and Hargrove became the manager, through 2001, the last year of their run:

Player         WARWAAOPSRfeld   PA From   To
Kenny Lofton   47.8 29.3  110  98.7 5571 1992 2001
Jim Thome      40.0 22.2  147 
-33.9 5110 1991 2001
Manny Ramirez  29.9 15.8  152 
-40.8 4095 1993 2000
Albert Belle   27.4 14.9  155 
-30.8 3666 1991 1996
Omar Vizquel   21.0  4.4   88  21.2 4943 1994 2001
Roberto Alomar 20.3 13.1  134  10.1 2068 1999 2001
Carlos Baerga  18.7  6.4  110 
-25.3 3635 1991 1999
Sandy Alomar   10.9 
-0.1   89   7.8 3184 1991 2000
David Justice  10.9  3.8  132  
-1.4 2025 1997 2000 

Player           WAR WAA ERA+  FIP   W  L     IP From   To
Charles Nagy    26.9 9.3  105 4.14 126 95 1848.0 1991 2001
Bartolo Colon   18.0 9.1  117 4.10  65 41  913.1 1997 2001
Dennis Martinez 11.8 7.3  132 4.23  32 17  475.2 1994 1996
Jose Mesa       10.5 3.3  116 3.84  33 36  647.1 1992 1998
Dave Burba      10.1 2.7  103 4.45  56 35  765.2 1998 2001
Eric Plunk      10.0 4.9  140 3.73  36 23  462.0 1992 1998
Orel Hershiser   8.7 3.3  113 4.56  45 21  568.2 1995 1997 

Omar's HOF case relies on his prime years with the Indians. If you were looking for Hall candidates from this list, is he among the top six?
   110. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: November 27, 2017 at 10:30 AM (#5581381)
DRA can be found at The Baseball Gauge. Folks like KJOK or Humphreys, himself, can probably talk better about its specifics. It's got a wider range of variance than Rfield does. My primary issue with DRA is that it's outfield arm ratings aren't very good. If I'm assessing outfield defense, I'm subbing in BBREF's Rof for DRA's arm rating.

The book Wizardry was very good and well worth reading. While WAR won the omnibus stat battle (and I'm a WAR believer), Win Shares did something I really like, which is start the discussion of fielding at the team level rather than the individual level. DRA does the same and then goes from there but in a way that feels more well thought out (to me) and that is expressed in runs, not claim points and stuff like that a la Win Shares.
   111. bachslunch Posted: November 27, 2017 at 10:31 AM (#5581382)
Interesting in DanG's posting to compare the two middle infielders:

Omar Vizquel 21.0 4.4 88 21.2 4943 1994 2001
Roberto Alomar 20.3 13.1 134 10.1 2068 1999 2001

Alomar put up almost as much WAR in three seasons as Vizquel did in eight -- and nearly 10 more WAA.
   112. Sean Forman Posted: November 27, 2017 at 10:46 AM (#5581400)
Maranville at least got A LOT of MVP votes (5 top 10s). He was viewed (contemporaneously and erroneously) as a top player in his era. Vizquel got one measly MVP vote for 8th in his career. And I looked this up--he was never among the top 100 highest paid players in baseball. Additionally his postseason performance is notably poor. He certainly was not helping the Indians get over the line in the postseason.

It's baffling.

My working assumption is that
1) no one trusts any defensive numbers and they assume he was as good as Ozzie and then they look at unadjusted offense and think he was better at the plate than Ozzie.
2) He is a phenomenally nice guy
3) He has the most games played at SS which is, in fact, a significant accomplishment.

He's almost a perfect analog to Bob Boone. 11 to 7 GG's. 3 to 4 ASG's. both retired as all-time leaders in GP's at their positions. Boone actually stayed on the ballot for five years.
   113. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: November 27, 2017 at 11:19 AM (#5581423)
2) He is a phenomenally nice guy

Except when Arthur Rhodes is on the mound.... ;)
   114. SoSH U at work Posted: November 27, 2017 at 11:40 AM (#5581434)
2) He is a phenomenally nice guy


And Jose Mesa wasn't exactly crazy about Omar in his author guise.

   115. TJ Posted: November 27, 2017 at 11:49 AM (#5581438)
And Jose Mesa wasn't exactly crazy about Omar in his author guise.


I always found Vizquel's criticism of Mesa amusing. If I recall correctly, Vizquel didn't exactly shine in either of his WS appearances...
   116. Booey Posted: November 27, 2017 at 01:10 PM (#5581487)
Maranville at least got A LOT of MVP votes (5 top 10s). He was viewed (contemporaneously and erroneously) as a top player in his era. Vizquel got one measly MVP vote for 8th in his career. And I looked this up--he was never among the top 100 highest paid players in baseball. Additionally his postseason performance is notably poor. He certainly was not helping the Indians get over the line in the postseason.

It's baffling.


What gets me is that the BBWAA are the ones voting for both MVP's and the Hall of Fame (yes, I know there's a lot of turnover in 20-25 years). So the same group that collectively thought Vizquel wasn't worthy of even down ballot MVP votes at any time in his career now collectively thinks he's (possibly) a first ballot Hall of Famer? That's a striking inconsistency that just boggles my mind. Either they were horribly wrong then or they're horribly wrong now.

Has any BBWAA elected HOF position player ever gotten as little MVP support as Vizquel? I'd be pretty surprised.

My working assumption is that
1) no one trusts any defensive numbers and they assume he was as good as Ozzie and then they look at unadjusted offense and think he was better at the plate than Ozzie.
2) He is a phenomenally nice guy
3) He has the most games played at SS which is, in fact, a significant accomplishment.

He's almost a perfect analog to Bob Boone. 11 to 7 GG's. 3 to 4 ASG's. both retired as all-time leaders in GP's at their positions. Boone actually stayed on the ballot for five years.


Boone is a good comp that I never thought of. I've used Yadier Molina as a comp before, and cfb is right that it's not perfect (Molina was legitimately a major star for a few years), but 2 things about Yadi and Omar still strike me as similar; first, there doesn't seem to be a lot of middle ground in how people view their HOF cases (i.e. no one seems to think of them as borderline). Casual fans/low information voters (and that seems to apply to most the BBWAA, unfortunately) see them as no brainers, while SABR types don't view them as even being particularly close. And the 2nd similarity is WHY I think they're overrated by the casual fan and sportwriter - they're greatly overrating their hitting. Vizquel's hit total seems to make people forget that he actually wasn't a very good hitter, just like the couple seasons where Molina could hit made people forget about all the years where he couldn't. So I think both players are being viewed as all time great defenders with pretty good bats, whereas both should really just be viewed as glove only candidates.
   117. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 27, 2017 at 01:31 PM (#5581496)
Vizquel is 7th all time in outs made.

Crazy that he batted 2nd for over half his career. And probably on some great offensive teams.
   118. The Duke Posted: November 27, 2017 at 01:36 PM (#5581499)
I listen to the Cards broadcasts on mlb and often listen to the other teams announcers who are a pretty good proxy for “future hall of famer” and if I had to guess from their comments most of them think of Molina as a hall of famer. It’s unscientific but most of them always talk about his incredible defense and durability. I have to assume Vizquel has the same rep. Add in almost getting to 3000 hits probably makes this easy for the people heavily involved in the game. Plus, with all the PED stuff swirling, it’s an easier vote
   119. PreservedFish Posted: November 27, 2017 at 01:48 PM (#5581516)
I could see Yadier as a borderline HOF candidate. He played at a legit HOF level for a few years (Vizquel never really did). The value outside of that small peak is tough to argue for ... basically he's been an OK starter for a dozen years, an OK starter at the toughest position, and with lots of team leader credibility, but still mostly just OK. If he keeps going forever, it's an easier call.
   120. BDC Posted: November 27, 2017 at 01:49 PM (#5581519)
Closest batting careers through age 34 to Yadier Molina, by OPS+ and PA:

Player             dWAR   PA OPSRbaser  HR RBI   BA  OBP  SLG         Pos
Yadier Molina      22.1 6700   98  
-31.3 126 785 .284 .336 .403      *2/H3D
Paul Blair         18.7 6511   98    3.2 132 605 .253 .305 .386  
*8H/97456D
Placido Polanco    16.1 6620   98    9.0  96 631 .303 .347 .411   
*456/H7D3
Brandon Phillips    9.9 6777   96   20.4 186 825 .273 .320 .421      
*4/H6D
B
.JSurhoff        7.2 6850   99   -2.9 146 893 .281 .331 .415 275/3HD9864
Mark Kotsay         3.8 6528   98   
-4.6 121 663 .279 .335 .411    *89H3/D7
Delino DeShields   
-0.2 6652   98   45.0  80 561 .268 .352 .377 *4H7/D65839 


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/27/2017.

Paul Blair seems a very good comp to me. Pretty long career as an elite defensive player at a key position. Blair had 39 WAR by age 34 (he would actually lose a couple later on); Molina has 35.

If you limit the search to pure catchers, you have to expand the playing time and batting ranges much further. Only two are close through age 34:

Player           dWAR   PA OPSRbaser  HR RBI   BA  OBP  SLG      Pos
Yadier Molina    22.1 6700   98  
-31.3 126 785 .284 .336 .403   *2/H3D
Jim Sundberg     22.1 5904   92   
-8.1  71 537 .253 .330 .350   *2/H7D
Russell Martin   14.9 6047  102   
-5.0 175 726 .253 .350 .403 *2/H5D49 


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/27/2017.

A somewhat-better-hitting version of Jim Sundberg also sounds about right. A not-quite-as-good-hitting/somewhat-better-glove version of Russell Martin also sounds about right, but if you proposed that Russell Martin had a HOF case, yes, everybody, low- or high-information, would just laugh. Yet Martin has 36 WAR and is a few months younger than Molina with his 35.
   121. Booey Posted: November 27, 2017 at 01:50 PM (#5581521)
I could see Yadier as a borderline HOF candidate.


I could too, but some people (not here) talk about him like he's already a lock or close to it, and he's really not. He needs to keep going strong for a few more years at least to even get up to borderline.
   122. Lassus Posted: November 27, 2017 at 01:54 PM (#5581523)
somewhat-better-glove version of Russell Martin

Molina and the Cards irritate me in general, but that just is not accurate.
   123. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 27, 2017 at 01:58 PM (#5581527)
Has any BBWAA elected HOF position player ever gotten as little MVP support as Vizquel? I'd be pretty surprised.

They have not (I've looked at this specific topic in previous Vizquel discussions).
   124. Downing Almost Deserves It Posted: November 27, 2017 at 02:00 PM (#5581531)
I assume you mean overall. He's not a better fielder?

No, I don't think Jeter is a better fielder than Vizquel.

I do think Campaneris is closer to Jeter in overall quality than he is to Vizquel.
   125. PreservedFish Posted: November 27, 2017 at 02:02 PM (#5581533)
A not-quite-as-good-hitting/somewhat-better-glove version of Russell Martin also sounds about right, but if you proposed that Russell Martin had a HOF case, yes, everybody, low- or high-information, would just laugh. Yet Martin has 36 WAR and is a few months younger than Molina with his 35.


Very interesting comparison. They have opposite career shapes - Molina has a typical mountain with a peak in his late 20s. But Martin has a valley in his prime.

Martin has, at times, acquired that hard-nosed 4-star backstop general reputation, but he moves teams often enough that it seems like he needs to reestablish that reputation repeatedly.
   126. BDC Posted: November 27, 2017 at 02:08 PM (#5581541)
Molina and the Cards irritate me in general, but that just is not accurate

How far do you want to go, though? Transcendentally better glove than Russell Martin? :) Martin has a pretty good reputation, and got a lot of credit for handling pitchers in Pittsburgh, for instance.

I think that Molina's reputation depends on his being seen as somebody that it's heresy to compare even pretty good catchers to.
   127. Rally Posted: November 27, 2017 at 02:13 PM (#5581543)
Martin has, at times, acquired that hard-nosed 4-star backstop general reputation, but he moves teams often enough that it seems like he needs to reestablish that reputation repeatedly.


I would think in his particular situation that would help him - when he changes teams the team getting him goes to the playoffs. In the latter 2 cases he was a big part of breaking long playoff droughts.
   128. Lassus Posted: November 27, 2017 at 02:25 PM (#5581552)
How far do you want to go, though? Transcendentally better glove than Russell Martin? :) Martin has a pretty good reputation, and got a lot of credit for handling pitchers in Pittsburgh, for instance. I think that Molina's reputation depends on his being seen as somebody that it's heresy to compare even pretty good catchers to.

Fair enough, sure, but has there been a better defensive catcher in the past 10/15 years? I mean, I'm a Mets fan, I certainly may have missed someone.
   129. Booey Posted: November 27, 2017 at 02:58 PM (#5581574)
Has any BBWAA elected HOF position player ever gotten as little MVP support as Vizquel? I'd be pretty surprised.

They have not (I've looked at this specific topic in previous Vizquel discussions).


This is why I say Vizquel would be the biggest "WTF?" BBWAA selection of my lifetime. We've been hearing "future HOFer" attached to his name ever since he retired so I guess it wouldn't be completely out of the blue, but it's still so far distanced from his actual reputation during his prime. It's a completely retroactive HOF case unlike possibly any other.*

*IMO people have adequately shown that his most similar HOF comps like Maranville, Aparacio, and Ozzie were all considered much bigger stars back in their day.
   130. Michael J. Binkley's anxiety closet Posted: November 27, 2017 at 03:04 PM (#5581581)
A not-quite-as-good-hitting/somewhat-better-glove version of Russell Martin also sounds about right, but if you proposed that Russell Martin had a HOF case, yes, everybody, low- or high-information, would just laugh. Yet Martin has 36 WAR and is a few months younger than Molina with his 35


If you believe the numbers at Baseball Prospectus, Martin has added about 19 wins via pitch-framing. The day they released the framing data back to 1988, last year, the called it "Catcher's Day" because they released a number of other catcher-based articles that day, including one arguing Martin as a future HoFer.
   131. TR_Sullivan Posted: November 27, 2017 at 03:16 PM (#5581587)

My Hall of Fame ballot, following in the annual tradition of announcing it first here at BBTF.... I guess this thread is as good as any.

(In alphabetical order)

1. Barry Bonds
2. Roger Clemens
3. Vladimir Guerrero
4. Trevor Hoffman
5. Chipper Jones
6. Edgar Martinez
7. Mike Mussina
8. Scott Rolen
9. Jim Thome
10. Larry Walker

A few notes
-- I am actually getting tired of voting for Bonds and Clemens. But then I got an e-mail...

-- Walker and Martinez, I am on the fence about, but they are getting to the end so I gave them the benefit of the doubt

-- I was fully planning on voting for Omar Vizquel but decided against it. Why? I'd like to see Trammell get in first. I may get back on Vizquel later. I have no doubts he was an outstanding defensive player.

-- I was on the fence with Andruw and Rolen for the last vote. I'm just not convinced on Andruw yet...no rush to vote him yet. Something is bothering me about him.

-- If you take away the PED issue... Thome is no more deserving than Sosa, Ramirez or Sheffield really. I feel bad for Fred McGriff, he deserves more consideration.

-- This was a tough ballot and I wasn't really overly enthusiastic about anybody except one guy....I had 16-17 candidates and I seriously thought about just checking just one guy off and saying the hell with it. But if you are going to do it, take it seriously.

-- I did what I thought best....

TR.Sullivan@mlb.com
   132. Lassus Posted: November 27, 2017 at 03:17 PM (#5581588)
Thanks, TR.
   133. Booey Posted: November 27, 2017 at 03:31 PM (#5581601)
-- I was on the fence with Andruw and Rolen for the last vote. I'm just not convinced on Andruw yet...no rush to vote him yet. Something is bothering me about him.


It must be the way he spells his first name. That kinda weirds me out too...

And thanks for posting. Good ballot.
   134. TJ Posted: November 27, 2017 at 03:33 PM (#5581604)
Yayyyyy for TR! Can't speak for all of us (but I'm sure I do), but I really appreciate and look forward to your ballot for both your choices and your reasons. Thanks!

I've personally moved to the position that, if there is someone a HOF voter is borderline about, they should vote for them if they have room on their ballot. If 75% of the electorate is borderline on a guy, then he's probably a Hall of Famer...

PS- Will one of you Primates who do twitter let Ryan Thibs know TR's made his calls?
   135. TJ Posted: November 27, 2017 at 03:35 PM (#5581607)
-- I am actually getting tired of voting for Bonds and Clemens. But then I got an e-mail...


PS- Great line!
   136. dlf Posted: November 27, 2017 at 03:41 PM (#5581615)
Thanks TR! I appreciate that you post it here even if I think Hoffman should be closer to 15th or 20th on this ballot and not in the top 10.
   137. Baldrick Posted: November 27, 2017 at 03:42 PM (#5581616)
As always, thanks TR. Both for posting here and for a well considered ballot. I'd quibble here and there but that's what this is all about. And I'm extremely glad to see guys like Walker, Rolen, and Edgar on the list.
   138. TomH Posted: November 27, 2017 at 03:59 PM (#5581637)
Bill Mazeroski, who is a reasonable comp to Omar, received virtually zero MVP support (total .19 shares) in his career

Comp YES
no hit
great glove

Comp NO
career length
WS classic moment
   139. Booey Posted: November 27, 2017 at 04:07 PM (#5581649)
Bill Mazeroski, who is a reasonable comp to Omar, received virtually zero MVP support (total .19 shares) in his career


He was also a widely criticized VC pick, not a possibly 1st ballot writers pick. And that WS homer likely did a lot of heavy lifting.
   140. TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember Posted: November 27, 2017 at 04:14 PM (#5581656)
somewhat-better-glove version of Russell Martin

Molina and the Cards irritate me in general, but that just is not accurate.
Well...

1. You need to address the whole quote "A not-quite-as-good-hitting/somewhat-better-glove version of Russell Martin also sounds about right".
2. If you do that, Molina is as much a "not-quite-as-good-hitting" version of Martin as he is a "somewhat-better-glove" version. There's a 61 run difference in defense between them, 57 run difference in offense.

   141. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: November 27, 2017 at 04:14 PM (#5581657)
Well, at least Vizquel won't be the first player to be inducted unanimously.
   142. Rally Posted: November 27, 2017 at 04:22 PM (#5581663)
If Omar makes it...

There were 46,163 fans on hand to watch his MLB debut, on 4-3-1989 in Oakland. How many of them could possibly have imagined they were watching the beginning of a HOF career?
   143. Downing Almost Deserves It Posted: November 27, 2017 at 04:37 PM (#5581674)
#142

More than a handful I suspect, at least if they thought the M's were solid in the draft. Didn't Griffey debut the same day?
   144. bachslunch Posted: November 27, 2017 at 04:42 PM (#5581677)
Great ballot, TR, and glad you’re sharing with us.

Love that you kept steady with Bonds and Clemens in the face of Morgan’s strong arming, found room for Rolen, and didn’t get taken in by the Omar lovefest. Glad also that you’re pushing through Hoffman and Vlad to help get them off the ballot, and happy to see Edgar, Mussina, and Walker there.

Wish all the ballots were this good.
   145. Baldrick Posted: November 27, 2017 at 04:59 PM (#5581687)
If Omar makes it...

There were 46,163 fans on hand to watch his MLB debut, on 4-3-1989 in Oakland. How many of them could possibly have imagined they were watching the beginning of a HOF career?

I was one of them!
   146. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 27, 2017 at 05:04 PM (#5581691)
Edgar Martinez is now +3 with only 8 ballots accounted for. Edgar was 73 votes short last year, so he has some work to do, but he's "on pace" to make it. More seriously, it's probably a two-year effort, using up the entire 10-year eligibility period. Getting toward the end of eligibility seems to cause some voters to take a second look, and ballot space has opened for some voters, but I believe Edgar's surge has been aided by the belated realization by some voters that it would be very difficult to justify a vote for David Ortiz while snubbing Edgar.
   147. BDC Posted: November 27, 2017 at 05:07 PM (#5581694)
There were 46,163 fans on hand to watch his MLB debut

This inevitably got me to thinking "What player had the highest attendance at his major-league debut?" This is not the easiest thing in the world to look for, but I have one candidate who may be provisional. On 18 April 1950, a fellow named Herb Conyers pinch-hit for the Indians in a game where the announced attendance was 65,744 at Cleveland's old Municipal Stadium. I don't know how many of the 65,744 actually saw him. It was the bottom of the tenth, and the game had gone on nearly three hours! Conyers, representing the tying run, singled in the pitcher's spot and was promptly forced at second by Dale Mitchell; the Indians lost the game. Conyers would play only six more games in the majors, but batted .315 in well over a thousand minor-league games.

Well, that's a benchmark at least.
   148. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: November 27, 2017 at 05:15 PM (#5581701)
Bill Mazeroski, who is a reasonable comp to Omar, received virtually zero MVP support (total .19 shares) in his career

Comp YES
no hit
great glove


If anything, this is an undersell on Maz's glove. He wasn't inducted because he was a great fielder. He's in because he was the consensus best fielding 2B ever during his career, an assessment that stands up even to the advanced pbp stats today.

"Great fielding 2B" also include (per bbref) Frank White (#2), Willie Randolph (#3), Mark Ellis (#6), Lou Whitaker (#7), Mark Lemke (#8), and Bobby Grich (#9). Average their HoF support and that's a reasonable comp of where Vizquel should be.

Vizquel ranks 5th on the career Total Zone Runs SS leaderboard at bbref, but is over 100 runs behind Ozzie (as well as Mark Belanger). Equating Ozzie and Omar is like saying Babe Ruth was a great power hitter, and Jason Giambi was also a great power hitter, so they're both Hall of Famers. I just do not get the BBWAA love for Vizquel. At all.
   149. Sean Forman Posted: November 27, 2017 at 05:24 PM (#5581706)
Frank White is a good comp. He even has 2 more ASG's. Tho 3 fewer GG's.
   150. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 27, 2017 at 05:26 PM (#5581708)
"What player had the highest attendance at his major-league debut?"

The Rockies 1993 home opener in front of 80,227 was their 3rd game of the season. I don't think anyone debuted in that game.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/COL/COL199304090.shtml

Lou Frazier debuted with a PH appearance the previous game, and also PH in this one.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=frazilo01&t=b&year=1993

Mike Lansing and Frank Bolick both made their 3rd career appearance in starting the game.

   151. BDC Posted: November 27, 2017 at 05:42 PM (#5581713)
Shortstop Joe Boley of the Athletics, who would go on to be a minor but regular player on the A's 1929-31 dynasty, made his debut in front of an announced 72,000 on 12 April 1927 at Yankee Stadium. He is the leader so far in my searches.
   152. Ulysses S. Fairsmith Posted: November 27, 2017 at 06:31 PM (#5581748)
Vizquel has been touted as a "future hall of famer" on baseball broadcasts . . .


I think this is a major factor in what gets someone into the Hall of Fame.

I used to say that I had as much business in the Hall of Fame as Vizquel does. His longevity now makes him a more reasonable candidate than I am, but I'd still never vote for him.

I also used to say that he had no chance at making the Hall of Fame, but years of hearing him referred to as a future Hall-of-Famer makes me think that he will be elected. I hope I'm wrong.
   153. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: November 27, 2017 at 07:16 PM (#5581760)
He was also a widely criticized VC pick,


Mazeroski's election also resulted in the disolution of that version of the VC and its replacement with the Joe Morgan Super-Friends incarnation that never elected anyone.
   154. ajnrules Posted: November 27, 2017 at 07:24 PM (#5581762)
#131 - late to the party, but thanks always for revealing your vote on this thread. While we don't always agree 100% on the picks, I appreciate the thought that you put into your ballot and your willingness to remain open-minded about certain candidates.
   155. TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember Posted: November 27, 2017 at 07:25 PM (#5581763)
Lynn Henning's (Detroit News) ballot. You could make a small HOF argument for his selections, if he didn't add Vlad while ignoring the significantly better Walker and Rolen. Plus, he explains why he did vote for some guys but doesn't explain why Walker and Rolen are below his line. His ballot:

1. Barry Bonds
2. Roger Clemens
3. Vladimir Guerrero
4. Chipper Jones
5. Edgar Martinez
6. Mike Mussina
7. Curt Schilling
8. Jim Thome
   156. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: November 27, 2017 at 08:00 PM (#5581786)
if he didn't add Vlad while ignoring the significantly better Walker and Rolen. Plus, he explains why he did vote for some guys but doesn't explain why Walker and Rolen are below his line. His ballot:


Do we need an explanation for this though? To summarize:
Walker only has 8000 PA, seen has being assisted by Coors affect, was injured a lot, not long enough peak.
Rolen, good stick, good glove, but not Schmidt or Brooks like. Didn't hit like Matthews, Brett or Boggs. Never seen as best player in league due to lack of MVP support.
Vlad, shiny .300 BA, considered top player for most of his career(see MVP support), rocket arm, hits ball 2 feet out of strike zone! other great narrative.

I don't agree with it, but that's pretty much it. I lean more toward peak, so for me Walker is an easy selection. I would also add Manny to that Hennings ballot and be done with it.

As for the Vizquel love, I just don't get that. As mentioned heaps already, this guy was never even considered great whilst he was playing. A total lack of MVP support shows this. Also lasting a long time does not make you a great player. No one is suggesting Jim Kaat was a better pitcher then Pedro Martinez.
   157. Downing Almost Deserves It Posted: November 27, 2017 at 08:23 PM (#5581797)
Hey all, I have a question for Vizquel detractors. I'm strongly anti-Vizquel. And around here many rail against those who use things like MVP trophies and Gold Gloves to make Hall arguments. Yet, I'm seeing a fair amount disregarding Vizquel because of his paltry MVP shares. Are we being fair when we criticize him based on a lack of MVP support?
   158. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: November 27, 2017 at 08:28 PM (#5581800)
Do we need an explanation for this though? To summarize:
Walker only has 8000 PA,


Vlad has only 9000, the last 1000 of which were well below average (-2.5 WAA).

was injured a lot, not long enough peak.


Vlad 5 year peak 30 WAR, 20 WAA (rounding), 3400 PA. Walker 30 WAR, 22 WAA, 2700 PA. Vlad prime 53 WAR, 32 WAA, 6400 PA. Walker prime 61 WAR, 42 WAA, 6300 PA.

Vlad .318 BA, Walker .313. Both have a MVP. Vlad 0 GG, Walker 7.
   159. The Duke Posted: November 27, 2017 at 08:33 PM (#5581801)
Jim Kaat should be a hall of famer - I don’t think he is a good example of the point you are trying to make
   160. QLE Posted: November 27, 2017 at 08:33 PM (#5581802)
I believe Edgar's surge has been aided by the belated realization by some voters that it would be very difficult to justify a vote for David Ortiz while snubbing Edgar.


While I can't rule out that some have that in mind, I suspect other factors are more important, based on an analysis of the fifty-three ballots last year (and three so far this year) to switch to Martinez.

Of the fifty-three last year:

-Thirty-two voted for fewer of the new players of 2017 (Rodriguez, Ramirez, Guerrero, and the field) than they did players who left the ballot after 2016 (Griffey and Piazza through induction, Trammell and McGwire by hitting the time limit, and Edmonds and the field for failing to reach 5%). In many, if not all, of these cases, it seems likely that he was at top of their backlog for players that just missed their ballot in 2016, but who they had room for in 2017.

-Nine others cast ballots that supported two or more players in 2017 than in 2016- in these cases, it seems to be their reassessing how large they wanted their HOF to be, which suggests that Martinez went from being the best (or at least one of the best) out to over the line.

-Two more are people who dumped Schilling (presumably for reasons having nothing to do with his playing career), and, with him off their ballot, had room for Martinez.

Between these three situations, we have over 80% of Martinez's ballot growth in 2017 covered, suggesting that in many cases it was less reassessment of his credentials, and more BBWAA writers obtaining ballot space for him in one way or another.

Similarly, of the three to switch to Martinez so far this year, one backed five players that left the ballot in 2017 and another four, and in both cases had room for players from their backlog.

If we were seeing a lot more that consisted of voters unequivocally dumping other players for Martinez, the Ortiz points may be more important- and, even then, I'd need to assess the ballot histories in more detail for the other voters, as Martinez lost a lot of votes in the 2014 and 2015 glut years that might be coming back now that the glut has lessened somewhat.
   161. bfan Posted: November 27, 2017 at 09:02 PM (#5581815)
maybe this was said already in here, but is this the greatest use and presentation of a spread-sheet, ever? Excel should use this in their advertising.
   162. Baldrick Posted: November 27, 2017 at 09:04 PM (#5581816)
Hey all, I have a question for Vizquel detractors. I'm strongly anti-Vizquel. And around here many rail against those who use things like MVP trophies and Gold Gloves to make Hall arguments. Yet, I'm seeing a fair amount disregarding Vizquel because of his paltry MVP shares. Are we being fair when we criticize him based on a lack of MVP support?

I think most people making that argument would also happily point to the plethora of sabermetrically-authenticated methods which confirm that Vizquel was never among the 10 best players in the league. 'No MVP votes' is A) just a useful way to communicate that point, and B) a good representation that even for people who buy into grit and the Will to Win, Vizquel was never regarded as an MVP-caliber player.
   163. Downing Almost Deserves It Posted: November 27, 2017 at 09:09 PM (#5581818)
I think most people making that argument would also happily point to the plethora of sabermetrically-authenticated methods which confirm that Vizquel was never among the 10 best players in the league. 'No MVP votes' is A) just a useful way to communicate that point, and B) a good representation that even for people who buy into grit and the Will to Win, Vizquel was never regarded as an MVP-caliber player.

A very fair point. I see what you're saying.
   164. Buck Coats Posted: November 27, 2017 at 09:10 PM (#5581819)
Yeah, I think the MVP arguments aren't "that's why he shouldn't be in the HOF" but "that's why it's so weird that people think he's a HOFer now when they never thought he was particularly great before..."
   165. Booey Posted: November 27, 2017 at 09:43 PM (#5581830)
Yeah, I think the MVP arguments aren't "that's why he shouldn't be in the HOF" but "that's why it's so weird that people think he's a HOFer now when they never thought he was particularly great before..."


Exactly.

Not being great for a really long time doesn't suddenly make you great.
   166. PreservedFish Posted: November 27, 2017 at 09:51 PM (#5581835)
Zero votes for Johan Santana. Tough crowd.
   167. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: November 27, 2017 at 10:11 PM (#5581838)
Jim Kaat should be a hall of famer - I don’t think he is a good example of the point you are trying to make


A primer nitpick. Kaat is on the cusp and like Vizquel was pretty good for a long time. In my mind, not a HOFer. So I think my point was quite valid.
   168. Walt Davis Posted: November 28, 2017 at 12:35 AM (#5581854)
Crazy that he batted 2nd for over half his career. And probably on some great offensive teams.

At his offensive "peak" he was perfectly good at getting on base. From ages 29-39 (he peaked late) he had a 355 OBP vs a (park-adjusted) lgOBP of 341. bWAR doesn't think a lot of his baserunning but he was above-average. I prefer more power in the #2 spot, especially in the AL, so he was probably better suited to leadoff (if not for Lofton) or as the "#9 2nd leadoff man", but he wasn't really hurting the lineup in those days (assuming those days correspond to when he was hitting #2 a lot).

It doesn't make a lot of sense that he got little MVP love but seemingly lots of first ballot love. But of course the primary explanation for that is career length. He's a "gold glove SS with nearly 2,900 hits." I really don't hold his low AS total against him -- as I've noted before, if he was in the NL, he'd have had plenty of AS years.

I agree Ozzie and Aparicio were bigger stars in their day (Maranville I have no idea). But the "logic" is not that hard to me. Maranville was considered the best defensive SS to that time and got in. Aparicio was considered the best to that time and got in. Same with Ozzie. Now nobody thinks Omar was as good as Ozzie -- but is "best defensive SS of all time" now the minimum standard for this sort of player? I don't think we know that he was as good as Aparicio. Omar has 11 GG to Aparicio's 9; Aparicio has 149 Rtot to Omar's 134 -- what info we have says they were about the same. Neither hit, neither won an MVP -- the one year Aparicio came close he had just 3.3 WAR and the writers put Sox players in the top 3 spots!

Anyway, point being if you think Aparicio belongs, it's not obvious that Vizquel doesn't. Unless you think Ozzie is a minimal standard (or just above), we at least have to recognize that somebody similar to Vizquel (a declining Andrelton Simmons say) belongs. Or we agree that, although we might think it's understandable given the info available at the time, Aparicio and Maranville were probably mistakes. That's not an argument that Vizquel belongs, just an argument that I can see why many people would conclude that he does.

TR, thanks for sharing your ballot again. If Ryan's tracker is correct, I see you dropped McGriff and Manny to add Edgar and Walker. I think that's sensible. Manny will still be there a couple of years from now if you want to add him back in. (We can agree to disagree on Hoffman and Vlad but you've got more folks on your side of that argument anyway and there will be no point disagreeing next year.)

All the way up to 9 votes now and the big movers are Edgar and Walker with 3 added votes each. 6 of the 9 did not vote for Edgar last time so he's converted half of them which is exactly what he needs to do (over the next two years) to get over the line. Obviously way too small a sample to draw any conclusions from but it's a promising start. And I'll be very happy if Walker can get a 10-15% boost on this ballot. Great start for Thome, maybe I've undersold his chances. Kent is the big loser so far (just as I expected! :-) having lost 2 votes. Manny's lost 2 votes too.

Odd set of voters these early returns -- all of them voted Clemens and 8 Bonds last year, only 3 for Edgar, none for Walker and nearly all full ballots this year and I suspect last year too.
   169. Walt Davis Posted: November 28, 2017 at 12:41 AM (#5581855)
I'm feeling in a generous mood so here's today's version of my official unofficial ballot

The easy ones: Bonds, Clemens, Chipper, Thome, Walker
The nearly as easy: Rolen
Since I'm feeling generous: Moose, Schilling, Manny

I wouldn't object to: Edgar, Sheff, Sosa
I'll be perfectly happy for: Vlad
   170. Rally Posted: November 28, 2017 at 08:13 AM (#5581867)
Yet, I'm seeing a fair amount disregarding Vizquel because of his paltry MVP shares. Are we being fair when we criticize him based on a lack of MVP support?


It's fair because we aren't asking if he was a good player. He was. We're asking if he was an all-time great player.

More than a handful I suspect, at least if they thought the M's were solid in the draft. Didn't Griffey debut the same day?


Sure did. If Omar gets in, have two HOFers ever debuted in the same game before?

I didn't have to search long to find teammates, Pedro and Piazza are the HOFers with the most recent first seasons, 1992, and both were Dodgers. But they did not debut in the same game, but 20 days apart in September.
   171. Rally Posted: November 28, 2017 at 08:17 AM (#5581868)
Robin Roberts/Richie Ashburn - 1948 Phillies, did not debut in same game.

Doing a quick look for teammates, I might have missed a case where two HOFers debuted on opposite sides in the same game.
   172. Rally Posted: November 28, 2017 at 08:23 AM (#5581869)
Joe Cronin/Paul Waner, 13 days apart for the 1926 Pirates. I did not know Cronin was a Pirate.

He played 2 years and a total of 50 games, and then was sold to the Senators for $7500. If that kind of money could bring a HOF shortstop to the Capital today, I'd have one on my softball team next spring.
   173. Rally Posted: November 28, 2017 at 08:27 AM (#5581870)
Got one: Mickey Cochrane and Lefty Grove, 4-14-1925, Philly A's.
   174. Ithaca2323 Posted: November 28, 2017 at 11:15 AM (#5581922)
Zero votes for Johan Santana. Tough crowd.


Meh.

Santana isn't just a peak candidate, he has nearly no value outside his 7 year peak, and zero postseason boost (1-3, 3.97 in postseason, 0 starts in ALCS or WS).

If that's your entire case, your peak needs to be really, really, great. By WAR, Santana probably doesn't even have an obvious claim to "Best pitcher in baseball" in any given season except 2006.

2004: Santana 8.6, Johnson 8.5
2005: Clemens: 7.8, Willis 7.3, Santana 7.2, Pedro, 7.0
2006: Santana: 7.5, Webb 7.0,
2008: Lincecum 7.9, Santana 7.1, Dempster 7.0

He was the best pitcher, collectively, during the span of 2004-2008, but this wasn't some Pedro like peak, where he's putting up 9, 10, 11 WAR seasons, and blowing away the competition by more than 3 WAR, like Pedro in 2000.
   175. SoSH U at work Posted: November 28, 2017 at 11:21 AM (#5581923)
Joe Cronin/Paul Waner, 13 days apart for the 1926 Pirates. I did not know Cronin was a Pirate.


On the Hall of Famer to be list, Jeter and Rivera made their debuts six days apart.

   176. Srul Itza Posted: November 28, 2017 at 12:34 PM (#5581976)
Are we being fair when we criticize him based on a lack of MVP support?


I think so. There are 10 spots on a ballot, and during his career, around 28 voters per year. Typically, you get around 20-25 different players getting votes. At a minimum, you can be pretty sure that the top 10-15 position players in the league will get at least one vote.

In his entire career, there was only one year in which he got so much as a single, down-ballot vote.

That means, throughout his career, only one voter ever thought he was among the best players in the league.

This is also a problem for Lou Whitaker, who is a favorite around here. Then again, in his entire career he broke 6 war exactly twice, never got to 7, and played over 140 games only 8 times (but should get credit for 109 in '81).
   177. EddieA Posted: November 28, 2017 at 12:52 PM (#5582002)
Has any Barry Bonds teammate ever been inducted into the Hall?
Ironic if Vizquel would be the first over (IMO) the clearly better Kent or Lofton, neither of whom are going to make it.
   178. Booey Posted: November 28, 2017 at 01:43 PM (#5582061)
Has any Barry Bonds teammate ever been inducted into the Hall?


I think I read somewhere that unless Kent gets in (or I suppose Lofton or Vizquel), Bonds would be the only Hall of Famer (assuming he ever gets in himself, of course) that never had a HOF teammate.

A few guys don't join Barry in that distinction only due to cameo's, though. George Brett, for example, only had the finals seasons of Orlando Cepeda (33 games in 1974) and Harmon Killebrew (109 games in 1975).
   179. Rally Posted: November 28, 2017 at 02:06 PM (#5582080)
Santana isn't just a peak candidate, he has nearly no value outside his 7 year peak, and zero postseason boost (1-3, 3.97 in postseason, 0 starts in ALCS or WS).


To me his most memorable postseason moment is throwing the pitch that put Adam "Homerun" Kennedy's name next to Babe Ruth and Reggie Jackson's.
   180. Ithaca2323 Posted: November 28, 2017 at 03:13 PM (#5582170)
I'm just not convinced on Andruw yet...no rush to vote him yet.


Way late on this....but are you sure? Look, I know 5% is a really, really low bar to clear, but Edmonds couldn't clear it just two years ago. I think a vote for Jones, to help ensure he actually stays on the ballot for you to consider, is more valuable than a vote for Walker.

Don't misunderstand me. I'm pro-Walker, and meh on Jones. But Walker's going to need to flip a net of ~80 voters a year for the next three years to get into the Hall. Edgar is undergoing a massive surge, and he's flipping about 50. That's simply not happening. Walker's been on the ballot for 7 years. He was on the 2nd least voted on ballot in history (2012, average of 5.10 votes per ballot) and he moved all the way from 20.3% to 22.9%. The ballot purge hasn't helped him—his 2017 total was still worse than his 2012 one. He just doesn't have the support

Granted, if Jones is struggling to clear 5%, he probably won't get elected either, but at least you'll have allowed people more years to consider him, and given him a chance to survive until after this steroid backlog clears.
   181. Rally Posted: November 28, 2017 at 03:45 PM (#5582196)
Here's the thing with Jones...

TotalZone says was saving 30-35 runs on defense for his prime. I know those are my stats out there, and I apologize for that. They are estimates based on incomplete data.

What we have now is much more precise. Statcast knows where a fielder was when the ball was hit, where the ball ended up, and how long it was in the air. On baseballsavant.com they have a pretty good estimate of outs above average. This year the leader was Buxton at +25. Plays, not runs, and that is plays above the average outfielder, not the average center fielder. Maybe he's +20 compared just to center fielders, and that equates to +16, +17 runs.

We only have two years of this data, and last year the leader (Hamilton) was similar. If you've seen Byron Buxton play center field, its pretty hard to imagine someone playing it better, and really hard to think someone could consistently be 15 runs per year better than Buxton was.

If I take Jones from 1997-2002, when he was +169 runs, and say that he could not have been better than +102 (+17 per year for 6 years) then he's 56 WAR instead of 63.

I started this post thinking about defensive metrics but that's not really that big a difference. Cut his defensive runs into the realm of sanity and instead of being slightly ahead of 2nd ballot HOFer Guerrero, he's slightly behind, but still equivalent value.

You can support Jones for the HOF for peak value reasons even if you don't fully trust the defensive metrics. From 1997-2005 his teams finished first every year and he was a big part of that. It's a problem in that he had very little value after the age of 29. I won't be mock voting for him, because I don't see him as one of the 10 best on this ballot.
   182. cardsfanboy Posted: November 28, 2017 at 06:44 PM (#5582320)
I could too, but some people (not here) talk about him like he's already a lock or close to it, and he's really not. He needs to keep going strong for a few more years at least to even get up to borderline.


I agree with that entire sentence, there are several writers/announcers out there already putting Yadier into the hof, but I think he needs another 3+ seasons as an above average player to get my vote, and that is with me admitting a homer bias. I think that there are players like Molina and Vizquel, who were thought of as hofers by the announcers/writers towards the end of their career, but who after the five years lose enough support that they don't have a real chance by the writers.
   183. BDC Posted: November 28, 2017 at 06:50 PM (#5582324)
unless Kent gets in (or I suppose Lofton or Vizquel), Bonds would be the only Hall of Famer (assuming he ever gets in himself, of course) that never had a HOF teammate

That's the kind of thing that fascinates me (as does the "cameo" qualifier for George Brett).

Part of this is that rosters are so volatile, and were even in the olden days. Part is that HOFers tend to win championships, so multiple players from championship teams tend to get to the HOF.

HOfers who played on a lot of losing clubs are rare and would seem good candidates for fewest HOF teammates. But even someone like Chuck Klein played on the 1935 pennant-winning Cubs and had Hartnett, Cuyler, and Lindstrom as teammates there (doesn't hurt that so many 1930s players are HOFers, of course). And Klein fetched up briefly on the 1939 Pirates with Vaughan and the Waner brothers.

Similarly, Ralph Kiner played one season with Hank Greenberg (1947). And then Kiner was ultimately a teammate of Ernie Banks as well as Larry Doby, Bob Lemon, Early Wynn and Bob Feller. It's hard to labor in obscurity forever in baseball.
   184. EddieA Posted: November 28, 2017 at 07:14 PM (#5582330)
Briefly, it appeared that Bonds was going to have Lincecum and possibly Cain. It was wishful thinking that Lincecum's pitching motion would hold up, but Cain appeared to have been built for the long run.
   185. cardsfanboy Posted: November 28, 2017 at 07:31 PM (#5582334)
-- Walker and Martinez, I am on the fence about, but they are getting to the end so I gave them the benefit of the doubt


Respect that, but disagree, I think both are pretty over the line, especially when you consider the fact an inferior player like David Ortiz is going to get in easily on his first or second ballot.

   186. bookbook Posted: November 28, 2017 at 07:32 PM (#5582336)
#181, I like your analysis. I think the Buxton comparison undersells Jones by a little bit for two reasons. #1, teams are valuing defense, especially outfield defense, more now than they did then. Dyson, Cain, Hayward and others are getting full credit for their defensive value added, and thus more playing time than in other recent eras. Lonnie Smith and Greg Luzinski types are not being tolerated in the outfield nearly as much as they used to be. #2, positioning and technique is much better than it was, across the board. The opportunity for +30 run outliers is not nearly so great. Andrew Jones had an opportunity to add more value on defense than anyone can today.
   187. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: November 29, 2017 at 04:36 AM (#5582446)
We only have two years of this data, and last year the leader (Hamilton) was similar. If you've seen Byron Buxton play center field, its pretty hard to imagine someone playing it better, and really hard to think someone could consistently be 15 runs per year better than Buxton was.

Isn't that only half of the equation though. Some of Andruw Jones' outfield contemporaries were lumbering statues like Adam Dunn, Gary Sheffield, MannyBManny, and so on. Guys where if you have seen them play, it is hard to imagine someone playing it worse.

Those types of guys don't get to play the outfield anymore. And generally, it seems pretty uncontroversial to say that outfield defensive play is currently at an all time high (possibly in part driven by the newer ways of analyzing and quantifying defense). So of course even superlative fielders are not going to stand out as much as the guy who was roaming around a lumberjack convention.

On the flip side of course, Jones is being compared on offense, to a bunch of steroid-age super-sluggers. You win some, you lose some. But it would be unfair to not give him the defensive credit for standing out much more among his peers, while still holding him to the same offensive standard. Even if in absolute terms he is only the equal of some of the guys playing OF right now.
   188. John DiFool2 Posted: November 29, 2017 at 08:37 AM (#5582489)
Those types of guys don't get to play the outfield anymore.


[cough]Kyle Schwarber[/cough]...
   189. Rally Posted: November 29, 2017 at 09:02 AM (#5582500)
#181, I like your analysis. I think the Buxton comparison undersells Jones by a little bit for two reasons. #1, teams are valuing defense, especially outfield defense, more now than they did then. Dyson, Cain, Hayward and others are getting full credit for their defensive value added, and thus more playing time than in other recent eras. Lonnie Smith and Greg Luzinski types are not being tolerated in the outfield nearly as much as they used to be. #2, positioning and technique is much better than it was, across the board. The opportunity for +30 run outliers is not nearly so great. Andrew Jones had an opportunity to add more value on defense than anyone can today.


This is an interesting theory. I don't know if it's true that average CF play has improved over the last 20 years, but it might be true.

#187, It is irrelevant to bring up Manny, Dunn, and Sheffield though. Jones' TZ rating is only compared to other center fielders. If we had statcast data retroactively back to 1997, and baseballsavant displayed the numbers just like the 2016-2017 report, then yes, they would be part of Jones' comparison set. But as it is we are comparing to Steve Finley, Doug Glanville, Devon White, Ray Lankford and the rest of the late 90s center fielders.

How could we infer whether CF play on average has improved?

1. Look at combined BABIP (maybe SLG on BIP to account for 2b/3b) on combined flyballs/linedrives. This would be an indication for overall outfield play, you can't isolate it to center field. And you absolutely must combine line drives/ fly balls. We can be reasonably sure that those classified as groundballs are plays an outfielder could not have made a play on unless there is massive scoring errors. Sometimes the dividing line between grounder/line drive is a bit obscured, but only for the infielder, these plays could not have been made by an OF. There is enough subjectivity between flyballs/linedrives as it is, but the standards for defining these over 20 years cannot possibly be consistent, so just combine them.

2. Look at something like the Bill James speed score metric for center fielders.

   190. PreservedFish Posted: November 29, 2017 at 09:15 AM (#5582502)
Young Andruw Jones was certainly the best outfield defender I've ever seen.
   191. Rally Posted: November 29, 2017 at 09:26 AM (#5582506)
Here is combined BABIP on FB+LD for a few selected years. Anyone else interested, please go to bbref splits and fill in the gaps.

1997 .341
1998 .365
2005 .353
2010 .355
2013 .352
2015 .353
2016 .354
2017 .352

In 1997-98, the classifications were split 60/40 in favor of fly balls. In 2005, it was 66% fly balls. In 2015, when supposedly the "fly ball revolution" was underway, there were more line drives than fly balls. Last 2 years its 52-54% flyballs. This means nothing except varying standards and methods of classifying these hits. Once you combine them it looks like about 35% of these hits find outfield grass or a wall, and that looks reasonably consistent over time. It is not obvious that teams are in general playing better defensive outfielders. The big difference is that the good outfielders are getting more recognition for their work.

For every team that consciously plays a strong defender and gives up a little on the bat, there is a good hitting outfielder without a job, and somebody is going to look past the glove and put him in the lineup.
   192. Rally Posted: November 29, 2017 at 09:28 AM (#5582508)
Young Andruw Jones was certainly the best outfield defender I've ever seen.


For me it's Eric Davis from mid 1986 to mid 1987, even if the numbers don't back that up. Next would be Gary Pettis.
   193. bookbook Posted: November 29, 2017 at 11:33 AM (#5582616)
So the evidence isn’t supporting my hypothesis(. I was going to suggest looking at the five worst defensive cf’s in the majors over time to see if there might be an appreciable difference.)
   194. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: November 29, 2017 at 11:51 AM (#5582641)
For me it's Eric Davis from mid 1986 to mid 1987, even if the numbers don't back that up. Next would be Gary Pettis.


In 1987, Jack Clark hit .286/.459/.597, leading the NL in ob% and slg%.

If Eric Davis didn't exist he would have hit .291/.462/.616.
   195. GregD Posted: November 29, 2017 at 12:05 PM (#5582661)
If Eric Davis didn't exist he would have hit .291/.462/.616.
Thanks for posting that! The spin back to make the throw on the first one is in some ways as impressive as the catch.
   196. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: November 29, 2017 at 12:12 PM (#5582668)
Eric was awesome.

I know it is cherry picking, but, in 162 games played from June 8, 1986, to June 26 1987, Eric Davis was the greatest player (or, at least, the most exciting player) to ever live. 46hr and 97sb, with only 12 caught stealing.
Ridiculous defense and throwing arm.

   197. Rally Posted: November 29, 2017 at 01:22 PM (#5582726)
I know it is cherry picking, but, in 162 games played from June 8, 1986, to June 26 1987, Eric Davis was the greatest player (or, at least, the most exciting player) to ever live. 46hr and 97sb, with only 12 caught stealing.
Ridiculous defense and throwing arm.


I agree 100%. Barry Bonds setting HR and BB might grade out as more valuable at his peak, but Davis was certainly the most exciting. Eric Davis regularly forced you to re-evaluate what is and is not humanly possible on the ballfield.

Examples:

1. A centerfielder should not be able to pick up a ground ball up the middle and step on second base for a forceout.
2. A base runner on second should not be able to tag and go to third on a popup to the first baseman.
   198. BrianBrianson Posted: November 29, 2017 at 02:49 PM (#5582829)
If Eric Davis didn't exist he would have hit .291/.462/.616.


Maybe it's because I was 10 at the time, but I remember Devon White making catches like that without looking like he was trying. In my mind's eye, he made this catch five or six times a game.
   199. The Duke Posted: November 29, 2017 at 07:46 PM (#5583045)
Pettis and White were outstanding. Davis was a light that burned brightly for far too little time. He was amazing during his peak.
   200. bachslunch Posted: November 30, 2017 at 08:12 AM (#5583192)
Ten ballots up now. Vote distribution:

Clemens, Vlad, Thome: 10
Chipper, Hoffman: 9
Bonds: 8
Edgar, Mussina, Vizquel: 7
Schilling: 4
McGriff, Walker: 3
Andruw, Manny, Rolen, Sosa: 2
Kent, Wagner: 1
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