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Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Ryan Thibs has his HOF Ballot Tracker Up and Running!

Ryan has received his first official ballot, courtesy of Adam Rubib. Ten votes, including Vizquel.

So who gets a higher percentage of vote this year, Trammell with the VC or Vizquel with the BBWAA? (Only partly a tongue-in-cheek question…)

TJ Posted: November 22, 2017 at 02:48 PM | 1774 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame

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   1001. Howie Menckel Posted: January 02, 2018 at 08:45 PM (#5599877)
flip
   1002. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 02, 2018 at 09:26 PM (#5599881)
1980-1999 HOF Elections One-and-Done Outfielders (41+ WAR)

64.5...Reggie Smith (3)
57.7...Bobby Bonds (24)
55.6...Jim Wynn (0)
55.0...Chet Lemon (1)
54.2...Jose Cruz (2)
52.8...Jack Clark (7)
52.7...Cesar Cedeno (2)
46.7...Roy White (0)
43.3...Al Oliver (19)
42.2...Felipe Alou (3)
42.1... Amos Otis (0)
41.6...Ken Singleton (0)
   1003. Howie Menckel Posted: January 02, 2018 at 09:37 PM (#5599884)
Smith and Wynn are in HOM (again, sometimes timing is in play)
Bonds still gets votes, and Singleton did for many years
   1004. ajnrules Posted: January 02, 2018 at 09:39 PM (#5599885)
57.7...Bobby Bonds (24)

Bobby wasn't one and done. His 24 votes was good for 5.8%, and he lasted on the ballot until his 11th year on the ballot in 1997 when he finally fell to 4.2%.
   1005. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: January 02, 2018 at 09:54 PM (#5599888)
JOHNNY DAMON : Even though he is going to be one-and-done, I will always remember his cherry-on-top GS off of Javier Vasquez that
effectively ended the 2004 ALCS. A first-row, down-the-line Yankee Stadium cheapie. He had only one HR,5 RBI in his first 105 postseason
ABs, then he had this wonderful game where he added a second, deeper HR to rub it in.


A few Yankee fans might be more inclined to remember this heads up play that helped the Yanks come back in game 4 of the 2009 World Series to take a 3-1 lead in games.
   1006. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: January 02, 2018 at 10:06 PM (#5599892)
A few Yankee fans might be more inclined to remember this heads up play that helped the Yanks come back in game 4 of the 2009 World Series to take a 3-1 lead in games.

I loved that play. It perfectly exemplified Damon's savviness and daring. In Posnanski's article on Damon, he wrote about it and the interviews after the game:

After the World Series game where he stole the back-to-back bases, he was in the postgame press conference and he was asked about it.

"You know," he said, "I used to be pretty fast."

He then saw me and pointed at me.

"Joe remembers," he said.

I do remember.

The next day, a New York paper used that quote and wrote, "You know, I used to be pretty fast. Joe [Torre] remembers."

It was the only time I've ever been confused for Joe Torre, one of the many gifts Damon gave me in his wonderful career.


   1007. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 02, 2018 at 10:14 PM (#5599896)
(1004) Sorry about the Bobby Bonds mistake, I kind of rushed through it.
   1008. ajnrules Posted: January 02, 2018 at 10:22 PM (#5599898)
Sorry about the Bobby Bonds mistake, I kind of rushed through it.

No worries. We all make mistakes.

And I love that Joe Posnanski / Johnny Damon. It's funny, but Joe "I do remember" gives it a kind of wistfulness, like a hearkening back to the days gone by.
   1009. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 02, 2018 at 10:41 PM (#5599904)
I highly recommend the "POSCAST" with Joe Posnanski and Michael Schur (comedy writer/showrunner/etc. for "The Office","Parks and Rec" and "Brooklyn 99").
They go back and forth for over an hour in hilarious fashion, and have a "draft" late in each poscast.
The two most recent "drafts" are: "Holiday Songs", with Michael, Brandon McCarthy, and 3 other guests (with Joe "running" the draft)
and "'We Are The World' Singers" with Joe, Michael, and Brandon McCarthy. One of my favorites from last July is "Salty Snacks".
   1010. Rennie's Tenet Posted: January 02, 2018 at 11:51 PM (#5599914)
#1002: Willie Davis was None-and-Done and has been allotted 60.5 bWAR and 53.7 fWAR.
   1011. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 03, 2018 at 12:18 AM (#5599915)
1980-2018 Hall of Fame Elections.....One-and-Done Starting Pitchers (PITCHING WAR ONLY)

68.5.....Kevin Brown (12)
68.2.....Rick Reuschel (2)
61.7.....David Cone (21)
59.1.....Bret Saberhagen (7)
58.5.....Chuck Finley (1)
57.5.....Frank Tanana (0)
57.1.....Jerry Koosman (4)
57.0.....Dave Stieb (7)
55.1.....Kevin Appier (1)
53.5.....David Wells (5)
51.1.....Kenny Rogers (1)
50.3.....Mark Langston (0)
49.5.....Dennis Martinez (16)
49.4.....Jimmy Key (3)
48.2.....Dwight Gooden (17)
47.4.....Frank Viola (2)
45.6.....Brad Radke (2)
45.3.....Steve Rogers (0)
43.5.....Bob Welch (1)
42.9.....Sam McDowell (0)
42.6.....Al Leiter (4)
42.5.....Tom Candiotti (2)
40.6.....Mel Stottlemyre (3)
40.5.....Danny Darwin (0)
40.1.....John Candaleria (1)
39.6.....Charlie Hough (4)
39.1.....Jon Matlack (0)
38.7.....Jim Perry (7)
37.4.....Andy Messersmith (3)
37.0.....Claude Osteen (2)
36.6.....Burt Hooton (1)
35.0.....Jose Rijo (1)
35.0.....Bruce Hurst (1)
34.9.....Doyle Alexander (0)
34.5.....Tim Wakefield (1)
34.4.....Charlie Leibrandt (0)
34.3.....John Tudor (2)


   1012. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 03, 2018 at 12:56 AM (#5599918)
So, next year Edgar and Rivera sail in. Mussina probably goes in with Jeter in 2020.
Does Schilling finally make it in 2021, the no-newbies year?
It doesn't look like Bonds and Clemens will make up much ground this year.
I just wish Barry would have been content with the amazing player he was. Just take a back seat to Sosa and McGwire for a few years, man.
Who cares if they hit more home runs? You would have eventually gotten what you deserved in the form of a forty-year retirement of universal
admiration. A legacy as one of the top-five offensive players of all-time. I just look at the "Skinny Barry" stats in awe. He did it all.

   1013. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 03, 2018 at 01:24 AM (#5599919)
CORRECTION (1011) Damn, I forgot this year's one-and-done pitchers.....

50.7.....Johan Santana (3 so far)
50.2.....Jamie Moyer (0)
38.2.....Carlos Zambrano (0)
35.5.....Chris Carpenter (0)

PITCHING WAR only.
   1014. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 03, 2018 at 01:29 AM (#5599920)
It doesn't look like Bonds and Clemens will make up much ground this year.

88.9% & 100% of 1st-time voters, respectively, so far. Granted, it's a small sample - 9 votes at the moment - but a glimmer of hope, although they will need to eventually break through with some of the current holdouts to have a chance for election in the coming years.
   1015. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 03, 2018 at 01:56 AM (#5599921)
One more thing about Bonds and then I'll shut up.

1990 thru 1998

(per 162 games) 697 PA - 554 AB

122 RUNS and 122 RBI

35 DOUBLES, 5 TRIPLES, 40 HOMERS

41 STEALS (12 caught-stealing) = 77.4% success rate

131 BB and 84 K's

.305 / .438 / .600

181+ adjusted OPS

Dang. Holy Cow. I know that these #'s are common
knowledge. I just like looking at the pretty stats as if they are a piece of art.
   1016. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: January 03, 2018 at 08:37 AM (#5599934)
I just wish Barry would have been content with the amazing player he was. Just take a back seat to Sosa and McGwire for a few years, man.
Who cares if they hit more home runs? You would have eventually gotten what you deserved in the form of a forty-year retirement of universal
admiration. A legacy as one of the top-five offensive players of all-time. I just look at the "Skinny Barry" stats in awe. He did it all.


You and a lot of other people think this, possibly including Bonds himself at this point.

   1017. Ithaca2323 Posted: January 03, 2018 at 08:41 AM (#5599936)
88.9% & 100% of 1st-time voters, respectively, so far. Granted, it's a small sample - 9 votes at the moment - but a glimmer of hope, although they will need to eventually break through with some of the current holdouts to have a chance for election in the coming years.


Yeah, unfortunately, I don't think those 15-20 guys a year are going to make enough of a difference for them. They have to change minds. But barring some sort of event—like a current HOF admitting he did steroids—I don't see what could happen to do that
   1018. Ithaca2323 Posted: January 03, 2018 at 08:43 AM (#5599937)
Mussina probably goes in with Jeter in 2020.


The most Mike Mussina of all possible outcomes.
   1019. Tubbs is Bobby Grich when he flys off the handle Posted: January 03, 2018 at 10:55 AM (#5599998)
I would add, I also think that having HOM voters set their own in/out line would automatically bring a "well, he never felt like a Hall-of-Famer to me" element back into voting that I think the HOM is better for not having. I think my first instinct, upon being convinced of the value of, say, David Cone might be to say: "Okay, I accept that. David Cone was a really good pitcher. But he still didn't "feel like a Hall-of-Famer" to me. Baseball-Reference is right to give him 62.5 bWAR/35.6 bWAA. But I feel like the Hall-of-Fame in/out line should be higher than that. Somebody has to be the best pitcher not in the Hall of Fame. Why not David Cone?"

Cone is kind of the opposite for me, he felt like a HOFer to me but his career numbers wound up being closer to say someone like Jimmy Key than I thought they would

In my opinion, Cone is borderline but probably the best candidate with below 200 wins
Cone was an important pitcher on many WS teams for the Jays and Yanks. He was won a CY with KC & was a great young pitcher for the Mets
I do, however, feel his WAR is a bit high. I feel like Royals and Yankees pitchers seem to get a bigger WAR boost than I would expect them to

Cone was certainly on a HOF path when he hurled his perfect game in 1999 but then struggled the rest of the season, the bottom fell out in 00, he pitched okay for Boston 01, and had a quick ill-fated comeback with the Mets. I will say Torre still trusted Cone to get a big out in the 00 WS -much to the chagrin of Denny Neale

Was Cone's career HOF worthy even with the late career dip? I'd probably say just barely. I believe he'll be eligible for December's Today's Game ballot
   1020. Booey Posted: January 03, 2018 at 11:09 AM (#5600014)
So, next year Edgar and Rivera sail in. Mussina probably goes in with Jeter in 2020.
Does Schilling finally make it in 2021, the no-newbies year?


I think Halladay gets in one of these years, too. Possibly even next year with Rivera and Edgar.

Yeah, I think 2021 is the year for Schill. If Edgar, Doc, and Moose (and obviously Mo and Jetes) are already in by then (I guess Edgar will be off the ballot either way), there's really no one left on the ballot that would have a shot (Bonds and Clemens have already been discussed), and another shutout would be...frowned upon.
   1021. Omineca Greg Posted: January 03, 2018 at 11:09 AM (#5600015)
Am I the only one thinks of Bonds as a roguishly provocative anti-hero, and Clemens as a garden variety pain in the ass?

I'd vote for both of them, but for Bonds I would do it quite happily, Clemens not so much.
   1022. Ithaca2323 Posted: January 03, 2018 at 11:24 AM (#5600028)
I think Halladay gets in one of these years, too. Possibly even next year with Rivera and Edgar.


I guess I'll ask: Halladay to me was in, but not overwhelmingly so. Great peak, but 65 total WAR isn't exactly slam dunk territory for pitchers. But we all know voters are human. What role will his unfortunate passing play in his vote totals? I know it didn't help Munson, but I'll be curious to what people write in their columns explaining their ballots
   1023. Booey Posted: January 03, 2018 at 11:24 AM (#5600029)
I think we could see several one player elections in the near future. 2021 could easily be just Schilling. 2022 could be just Ortiz (ARod debuts then too, but...well, ya know). 2023 could be just Ichiro (maybe Beltran, but he may take another ballot or two). Who looks like they may retire in 2018 and debut in 2024? Beltre is still too good. Pujols has too many years left on his contract.

With the thin ballots, I'm guessing we'll see someone somewhat unexpected work their way up to election. Pettitte and Vizquel would be my guesses, but hopefully it's someone like Rolen instead.
   1024. Booey Posted: January 03, 2018 at 11:31 AM (#5600037)
I guess I'll ask: Halladay to me was in, but not overwhelmingly so. Great peak, but 65 total WAR isn't exactly slam dunk territory for pitchers. But we all know voters are human. What role will his unfortunate passing play in his vote totals? I know it didn't help Munson, but I'll be curious to what people write in their columns explaining their ballots


Darryl Kile got 7 sympathy votes (I assume no one really thought his 133-119, 4.12 ERA, 20 WAR career was actually HOF worthy). I think a pitcher with an actual borderline HOF career - and clear HOF peak - will get even more of the votes that may have been in the "Eh, maybe in a few years..." category before. Plus Halladay was always considered a nice guy, great teammate, etc, so he'll get the BOTD that d0uchebag borderliners like Brown and Sheffield and Kent didn't/don't.
   1025. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 03, 2018 at 11:38 AM (#5600043)
I guess I'll ask: Halladay to me was in, but not overwhelmingly so. Great peak, but 65 total WAR isn't exactly slam dunk territory for pitchers. But we all know voters are human. What role will his unfortunate passing play in his vote totals?


Roy Halladay won two Cy Young awards. If you look at the players who have won multiple Cy Young awards and ignore Clemens, because we know why he's not in the Hall of Fame, it's interesting. Every eligible pitcher with MORE than two Cy Youngs is in the Hall of Fame (there are 7 such pitchers - and this is great news for Kershaw and Scherzer!). Among eligible pitchers with exactly two Cy Youngs, three are in the Hall of Fame - Bob Gibson, Tom Glavine, and Gaylord Perry. All three of these guys have more career wins than Halladay (Halladay had 203 - Gibson is closest w/ 251). The other three eligible pitchers (counting Johan Santana) all had fewer wins than Halladay - the other two are Denny McLain (131 wins) and Bret Saberhagen (167).

So, there's a very clear hierarchy, but it's one that actually doesn't tell us what's likely to happen to Halladay - the hierarchy stays equally clear whether Halladay gets elected or not. Pitchers who win MORE than two Cy Youngs make the Hall of Fame (unless they're believed to have used hGH). Pitchers who win exactly two Cy Young awards make the Hall of Fame if they win at least X games, where 168 =< X <= 251. If X<=203, then Halladay gets in. If X>204, Halladay's out.

Personally, I think he's in, but it could take 2-3 years for him to get there.
   1026. Booey Posted: January 03, 2018 at 11:52 AM (#5600062)
If you look at the players who have won multiple Cy Young awards and ignore Clemens, because we know why he's not in the Hall of Fame, it's interesting. Every eligible pitcher with MORE than two Cy Youngs is in the Hall of Fame


Not just IN the HOF, but elected first ballot (Koufax, Seaver, Palmer, Carlton, Maddux, Johnson, Pedro).

So, there's a very clear hierarchy, but it's one that actually doesn't tell us what's likely to happen to Halladay - the hierarchy stays equally clear whether Halladay gets elected or not. Pitchers who win MORE than two Cy Youngs make the Hall of Fame (unless they're believed to have used hGH). Pitchers who win exactly two Cy Young awards make the Hall of Fame if they win at least X games, where 168 =< X <= 251. If X<=203, then Halladay gets in. If X>204, Halladay's out.

Personally, I think he's in, but it could take 2-3 years for him to get there.


I think 200 wins might be the "X" we're looking for. Just a guess, of course, but it's a nice, round "milestone" type number that voters often like. Lots of pitchers with over 200 - but less than 300 - wins have been elected. Several with under 250 even. But to make it with less than 200 you basically had to have Koufax's peak. So I think 203 wins with 2 CYA's and some other high finishes will be enough for Doc.
   1027. The Duke Posted: January 03, 2018 at 11:52 AM (#5600063)
I wonder if Halladay will be good for Mussina and schilling or bad ? I tend to think bad. I think they will all end up around 55% and stealing votes from one another. I’m assuming of course that the very high numbers they have now will shrink when the private voters come in
   1028. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 03, 2018 at 12:00 PM (#5600078)
I think 200 wins might be the "X" we're looking for. Just a guess, of course, but it's a nice, round "milestone" type number that voters often like.


That's my guess, too, actually.

I wonder if Halladay will be good for Mussina and schilling or bad ? I tend to think bad.


Halladay and Mussina have somewhat different cases. Halladay's is a peak/prime - he was the best pitcher in baseball for a time, but had a relatively short career (for a Hall-of-Famer). Whereas Mussina was never the best pitcher in baseball but made up for that with career length (which is proxied well by career wins).

Schilling, on the other hand, has a more similar case to Halladay, except that he's clearly inferior (*) - Schilling was never the best pitcher in baseball; Schilling has the better postseason record, but Halladay has a no-hitter there. Although Schilling does have a few more career wins, but for both of them, the wins are high enough to not be disqualifying (see Johan Santana) but aren't really a selling point in and of themselves (I think you need to get at least close to 250 for that).

If Halladay hurts either of them (and I suppose he could hurt both of them a little bit), I would guess he'd hurt Schilling a bit more than Mussina.

(*) - Edit to add: I'm talking here in terms of perception from a "typical" BBWAA voter perspective. Not from a WAR/sabermetric perspective.
   1029. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 03, 2018 at 12:19 PM (#5600090)
Well, in 2019, the "Big Eight" will be Rivera, Edgar, Mussina, Schilling, Bonds, Clemens, Walker, and Halladay. That still leaves 2 spots for
Vizquel/Manny/Pettitte/other. There should be plenty of room for everyone. This year there is a "Big Ten" (Chipper down to Walker). 4 of them
will be elected and only two upper-tier guys hit the scene next year. It thins out even more in 2020 & 2021, with only Jeter.
   1030. ajnrules Posted: January 03, 2018 at 12:33 PM (#5600102)
Damn, I forgot this year's one-and-done pitchers.....

50.7.....Johan Santana (3 so far)
50.2.....Jamie Moyer (0)
38.2.....Carlos Zambrano (0)
35.5.....Chris Carpenter (0)

Jamie Moyer is going to be the first 250-game winner in the Modern Era to go one and done. Voting was sporadic for the 19th century hurlers, and every other 20th century hurler with 250 wins not in the Hall have lasted to the second ballot. (Granted, guys like Burleigh Grimes, Red Ruffing and Eppa Rixey received less than 5% of the vote their first time through, but in those early days of Hall voting they were back on the ballot the next year.) We'll see next year if Andy Pettitte will be the second.

I guess I'll ask: Halladay to me was in, but not overwhelmingly so. Great peak, but 65 total WAR isn't exactly slam dunk territory for pitchers. But we all know voters are human. What role will his unfortunate passing play in his vote totals? I know it didn't help Munson, but I'll be curious to what people write in their columns explaining their ballots

Halladay would be a fascinating test case. His counting stats are at a level where most pitchers don't make much headway. Lew Burdette is tied with him in wins and lasted 15 years and never got more than 24.1% of the vote. Dennis Martinez and Kevin Millwood are the closest to Doc in strikeouts and they're both one and done. His 65 WAR is above several first ballot Hall of Famers like Bob Feller and Sandy Koufax, but also below several one and done players like Rick Reuschel and Kevin Brown. He also has the multiple Cy Youngs and his reputation of being the Best Pitcher in Baseball, but as Kiko notes it hasn't helped Denny McLain or Johan Santana so far, although they are admittedly far below him in counting stats. How people will treat his untimely passing is the major wild card, as well as how many voters will use the character clause in his favor.
   1031. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: January 03, 2018 at 12:33 PM (#5600103)
And I love that Joe Posnanski / Johnny Damon. It's funny, but Joe "I do remember" gives it a kind of wistfulness, like a hearkening back to the days gone by.

Since it's Posnanski, it reminded me of this Buck O'Neil quote: “In our beautiful memory we were all handsome. We all could sing. We all had the heart of the prettiest girl in town. And we all hit .300.” Of course, in his youth Damon really could run.
   1032. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 03, 2018 at 01:17 PM (#5600148)
(1030) It would be interesting to have a national contest to predict the percentages of ballot newcomers every season.
I don't think many would have had Thome pegged for over 90%. Vizquel is probably a little lower than most people thought.
Halladay / Pettitte / Helton will be very interesting.
I have a hard time accepting the huge gap between Halladay and Johan Santana as far their treatment by the voters.
They both had nice WHIPs and ERA+, but Santana's were slightly better. They both had 2 Cy Young awards + other high finishes.
Halladay was able to stay healthy for the equivalent of 3 additional seasons. He deserves the HOF, in my opinion.
I would like to know what the line is that Santana had to cross to be a serious candidate. One more healthy season? Two? Three?
I'm going to predict 60% for Halladay, 30% for Pettitte, and 15% for Helton.

   1033. soc40 Posted: January 03, 2018 at 01:26 PM (#5600162)
Roy Halladay won two Cy Young awards. If you look at the players who have won multiple Cy Young awards and ignore Clemens, because we know why he's not in the Hall of Fame, it's interesting. Every eligible pitcher with MORE than two Cy Youngs is in the Hall of Fame (there are 7 such pitchers - and this is great news for Kershaw and Scherzer!). Among eligible pitchers with exactly two Cy Youngs, three are in the Hall of Fame - Bob Gibson, Tom Glavine, and Gaylord Perry. All three of these guys have more career wins than Halladay (Halladay had 203 - Gibson is closest w/ 251). The other three eligible pitchers (counting Johan Santana) all had fewer wins than Halladay - the other two are Denny McLain (131 wins) and Bret Saberhagen (167).


Lincecum won 2 Cy Youngs and will be lucky to see a second ballot.
   1034. Ithaca2323 Posted: January 03, 2018 at 01:27 PM (#5600164)
#1030

One of the things I don't like to do is worry too much about what guy hit one benchmark and isn't in the Hall of Fame when comparing him to a guy on the ballot now.

I got into this debate with someone on this site (maybe it was Kiko) about Jim Thome, who I thought was a lock, and I cited the combo of 600 HR, (with no known PED allegations) 1,700 RBI, a .400 OBP, and 70 WAR, which would appeal to traditionalists and SABER voters alike. And the responses were always about some guy who hit one or two of those marks and didn't get in. I think, for example, Harold Baines was brought up for RBI purposes, and Sosa for HR/RBI. But none of those guys had the combination of stats Thome did. Which is probably why Thome is sailing in.

As such, Denny McClain (264 starts, 20.8 WAR) and Johan Santana (284 starts, 50.7) aren't great comps for Halladay (390 and 65.6). Johan kind of is, I guess if you really wanted him to be.

Rueschel, who, although he almost won a three way race for a CY, never really had that "best in the game" legend*. As for Brown, he was named in the Mitchell report and disliked by nearly everyone.

None of Millwood's numbers compare other than Ks. Ditto Burdette and wins. Martinez was a near total non-entity in Cy voting.

*In fairness though, I think Rueschel would have a lot of support today if his numbers were the exact same and his career took place at the same time as Halladay's

So I'm not sure we can drawn any conclusions from the performance of guys who could only match a certain aspect of Halladay's career, but none of whom really approached the totality of it (except Johan, maybe)
   1035. Rally Posted: January 03, 2018 at 01:36 PM (#5600179)
Lincecum won 2 Cy Youngs and will be lucky to see a second ballot.


Those are his only great years, and besides that he has only 2 2/3 seasons that could even be described as good.
   1036. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 03, 2018 at 01:41 PM (#5600186)
I got into this debate with someone on this site (maybe it was Kiko) about Jim Thome, who I thought was a lock


I was on your side there. I was always mystified by folks who thought Thome would struggle (that said, I didn't predict 95% - and suspect he'll still end up a bit lower than that).

Lincecum won 2 Cy Youngs and will be lucky to see a second ballot.


Sure, because he has fewer career wins (110) than even Denny McLain and Johan Santana.

As I pointed out in #1025 and Ithaca pointed out in #1034, Halladay's career is essentially unique. You can find guys who have superficial similarities for whom Halladay has an obviously superior case (Johan, Burdette, Rick Reuschel) and you can find guys who have superficial similarities who were clearly better than Halladay (Bob Gibson, Bob Feller). The list of pitchers who won multiple Cy Youngs, were the best pitcher in their league for a while, and won about 200 games pretty much just contains the one name.

Actually, Hal Newhouser is a pretty decent comp in that regard (he pre-dates Cy Young awards, but won back-to-back MVPs). But he's got the whole "How seriously do we take his 1944 and 1945 seasons when he was dominating a bunch of old men and cripples?" problem going for him (he got around 20% of the vote before spiking to 42% in his last year on the BBWAA ballot before making it via the Veterans' Committee 17 years later).
   1037. Ithaca2323 Posted: January 03, 2018 at 01:56 PM (#5600197)
I was on your side there. I was always mystified by folks who thought Thome would struggle (that said, I didn't predict 95% - and suspect he'll still end up a bit lower than that).


My bad. I can't remember who is was, but it wasn't meant to be gloating or accusatory in any case.
   1038. Rally Posted: January 03, 2018 at 01:59 PM (#5600200)
Halladay had the 2 Cy Youngs, playoff no-hitter and perfect game. He was also generally regarded as a prototypical ace pitcher. I don't think he has any trouble going in first ballot. I predict 85%
   1039. Mike Emeigh Posted: January 03, 2018 at 02:08 PM (#5600205)
Lincecum won 2 Cy Youngs and will be lucky to see a second ballot.


I'm not even sure at this point he's going to see a first ballot, unless he comes back and pitches 4-5 more years. He's barely eligible as it is, and with only 110 wins I don't think even the two CYA will be enough to get him on a ballot.

Lincecum's career has a superficial similarity to Gary Nolan's, and Nolan didn't make a HoF ballot. Yes, Nolan never won a CYA (although more was expected of a starter then) and his peak was nothing like Lincecum's 2008/2009, but I suspect that people will look at Timmy the same way when all is said and done.

-- MWE
   1040. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 03, 2018 at 02:37 PM (#5600230)
I'm not even sure at this point [Lincecum]'s going to see a first ballot


It actually occurred to me after I pulled up his BB-Ref page to see how many wins he had that I should have confirmed that he's even eligible for a first ballot. I'd be a little surprised if he's left off the ballot entirely. There's certainly some quirkiness in terms of who does (Aubrey Huff and Brad Lidge this year) and does not (Javier Vazquez last year) make a ballot. But in the "come on, they even put Casey Blake (2017) and Eddie Guardado (2015) on a damn Hall-of-Fame ballot" vein of argument, I would be surprised if they excluded a two-time Cy Young winner entirely, even one who has absolutely no plausible Hall-of-Fame case.
   1041. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 03, 2018 at 02:45 PM (#5600240)
As I pointed out in #1025 and Ithaca pointed out in #1034, Halladay's career is essentially unique. . . .

Halladay strikes me as the type of player that many HoF voters would need some time to warm up to, since he doesn't really hit some of the usual major markers such as Wins. His untimely death may speed up that process, as it focused attention on how good he was at his peak, but I think he's still a multi-ballot choice. He should benefit from the ballot thinning out, but unless Edgar makes it this year - and I think he misses by ~ 10-15 votes - it's still going to a fairly crowded for a few more years. My guess is he starts around 50% next year.
   1042. DanG Posted: January 03, 2018 at 03:02 PM (#5600259)
Retired pitchers similar to Halladay in Wins, ERA+ and WAR:

Player           W ERA+  WAR     IP From   To
Stan Coveleski 215  127 65.2 3082.0 1912 1928 H
John Smoltz    213  125 66.5 3473.0 1988 2009 H
Kevin Brown    211  127 68.5 3256.1 1986 2005
Don Drysdale   209  121 61.2 3432.0 1956 1969 H
Eddie Cicotte  209  123 56.9 3226.0 1905 1920
Hal Newhouser  207  130 60.4 2993.0 1939 1955 H
Roy Halladay   203  131 65.6 2749.1 1998 2013
Dazzy Vance    197  125 62.5 2966.2 1915 1935 H
David Cone     194  121 61.7 2898.2 1986 2003
Rube Waddell   193  135 61.0 2961.1 1897 1910 H 
   1043. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 03, 2018 at 03:12 PM (#5600267)
Retired pitchers similar to Halladay in Wins, ERA+ and WAR: [list in #1042]


Don Drysdale's a good comp who hadn't occurred to me. Very similar career win totals (209 - 203). Drysdale has the better career ERA (2.95 to 3.38), but Halladay's far enough ahead in ERA+ (131-121) that I think even the least stat-friendly BBWAA voters understand that Drysdale (Dodger Stadium, 1960's) pitched in a MUCH more pitcher-friendly environment than Halladay (heart/end of the "steroid" era). Halladay has one more Cy Young, but Drysdale's win was from back when there was only one Cy Young award across both leagues (although I don't really see any other years where he would have won an NL-only Cy Young).

Drysdale made it in his first year of eligibility with 78.4% of the vote. That seems like a pretty decent guess for Halladay, maybe +/- 10% - which, of course, creates a range that crosses the magic 75% threshold.
   1044. Rally Posted: January 03, 2018 at 03:17 PM (#5600272)
I'm not even sure at this point [Lincecum]'s going to see a first ballot


I'd be surprised if he didn't get on a ballot. He pitched in 10 seasons, that's enough. Does not have to be 10 full seasons. Kerry Wood, Hideo Nomo, and Terry Mulholland made the ballot. Then again, Javier Vazquez and his 2500 strikeouts not making it seems really weird. Not that he had any chance of getting in or even sticking around, but many worse pitchers have appeared on the ballot.
   1045. Booey Posted: January 03, 2018 at 03:17 PM (#5600273)
I'm going to predict 60% for Halladay, 30% for Pettitte, and 15% for Helton.


I'm guessing 77% for Halladay, and I think you got the other two right, though they'll have different trajectories from there. I think Pettitte has a Moose-like climb and works his way up to eventual election (once Halladay, Mussina, and Schilling get elected and Clemens drops off, Andy could have several years as the best pitcher* on the ballot). Helton meanwhile, stays on the ballot for the duration but makes no progress whatsoever, hovering in the 10-20% range every year (see Mattingly, Murphy, etc).


* Perceived best, anyway. Hudson and Buehrle were just as good, but due to Pettitte's regular and postseason win totals, I think he leaves them in the dust
   1046. dlf Posted: January 03, 2018 at 03:18 PM (#5600275)
Drysdale made it in his first year of eligibility with 78.4% of the vote.


No, he made it in 1984, his 10th year, after making a climb from ~21% in 1975.
   1047. SoSH U at work Posted: January 03, 2018 at 03:22 PM (#5600280)
Hudson and Buehrle were just as good, but due to Pettitte's regular and postseason win totals, I think he leaves them in the dust


I'd say that the postseason legitimately separates him from them (at least makes him a better candidate). He's got more than a full season of almost identical rate work against better competition.
   1048. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 03, 2018 at 03:25 PM (#5600282)
(quoting myself from back in comment #863) As I type this, we have 133 non-anonymous votes from folks who voted last year. Of those, 40 did not vote for Edgar last year. Edgar is +15 this year, 15/40 = 37.5%. If Edgar converts 37.5% of the 41.4% who voted no last year, that would give him 58.6% + (37.5%)*(41.4%) = 74.1%, which is close enough that it basically comes down to how Edgar does with first-time voters


We're up to 148 non-anonymous votes from folks who voted last year, of whom 46 did not vote for Edgar last year. Edgar is up to +18, so he's converted 3 of the last 6 holdover "no" votes and is up to having converted just over 39% of the holdover "no" votes that we've seen (18/46 = 39.13%). Updating the last sentence above, 58.6% + (39.1%)*(41.4%) = 74.8%. He remains 7 of 9 among first-time voters (same as when the earlier was quoted) and 3 of 4 among anonymous ballots. This one could stay interesting right to the end (contrary to an opinion I expressed somewhere in the first 7-8 pages that we were pretty much set with a 4-man BBWAA class).
   1049. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 03, 2018 at 03:27 PM (#5600285)
No, he made it in 1984, his 10th year, after making a climb from ~21% in 1975.


Ah, dammit! I'm still not used to BB-Ref not showing everything - it used to be that every year of Hall-of-Fame voting showed when you went to a player's page. I forgot that now you have to click the "show all" - or whatever the hell it says.

Sorry about that. Okay, I expect Halladay to do better than Drysdale did in his first year.
   1050. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 03, 2018 at 03:41 PM (#5600301)
Halladay will be interesting. So far, the predictions have been:

(1026) 2 or 3 years to get elected
(1027) 55% in 2019
(1032) 60%
(1038) 85%
(1041) 50%
(1044) 77%
   1051. Booey Posted: January 03, 2018 at 03:43 PM (#5600304)
I'd say that the postseason legitimately separates him from them (at least makes him a better candidate). He's got more than a full season of almost identical rate work against better competition.


Yeah. Playing in 8 World Series (and winning 5) is a hook that very few modern players are going to have.
   1052. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 03, 2018 at 03:47 PM (#5600309)
I'm going to predict 60% for Halladay, 30% for Pettitte, and 15% for Helton.

I think Pettitte will get at least 40%, maybe even closer to 50%. Or not.
   1053. Srul Itza Posted: January 03, 2018 at 04:05 PM (#5600332)
No, he made it in 1984, his 10th year, after making a climb from ~21% in 1975.



The discussion of Drysdale let me to look at his page and the Franchise Page, and I was very surprised to see that Don Drysdale is the Dodgers career leader in WAR with 67 (including batting and pitching).

I don't know who I would have expected to see at the top, but that did surprise me.


ETA: Kershaw is the best current candidate to overtake him.
   1054. dlf Posted: January 03, 2018 at 04:21 PM (#5600349)
Ah, dammit! I'm still not used to BB-Ref not showing everything - it used to be that every year of Hall-of-Fame voting showed when you went to a player's page. I forgot that now you have to click the "show all" - or whatever the hell it says.

Sorry about that.


No worries. I just remembered the lengthy discussion of Drysdale in Bill James' Politics of Glory, was sure you were wrong, and looked it up before being flummoxed by the same click button. It says something of me that I can remember details of things I read decades ago better than what I read yesterday.

I think Pettitte will get at least 40%, maybe even closer to 50%. Or not.


The first prediction in the history of BBTF which is 100% absolutely certain to come true. (And with that announcement, we will now see the heat death of the universe suddenly coming before the AP election rendering even this impossible.)
   1055. Ithaca2323 Posted: January 03, 2018 at 04:22 PM (#5600351)
I'd say that the postseason legitimately separates him from them (at least makes him a better candidate). He's got more than a full season of almost identical rate work against better competition.


I'm going to sound like an old fuddy-duddy, but here's why I disagree with 1045 and think he'll never get in via the BBWAA: Pettitte pitched in 14 division series. He was the Game 2 starter in 12 of them.

He has good, but not great advanced stats (60.9 WAR, just three seasons with 4 or more WAR or in top 10 in league, 117 ERA+). He has no hardware except an LCS MVP (whatever that's worth).

His case is going to hang on the value voters put on the postseason. But, for all the bulk, he was almost never the guy you counted on the most, and I think the LDS starts show that. I know the end of the regular season is sometimes a race to the finish, but most of the time, you can work those last few days to set up the rotation how you want for the LDS. And it looks like the teams he was on almost always had a better option for G1. (I know that sometimes, the G2 starter gets the G5 start, so there might be an argument that in those cases, they're more valuable than the G1 starter. But I'm not even sure that's true, if the 2009 Yankees are any indication.)

And it wasn't like he was permanently stuck behind a Hall of Famer for 15 years. It was a rotating crop of pitchers. Cone, Wells, El Duque, Clemens, Mussina, Wang, and Sabathia all got the G1 nods over him. Now, some of those guys are merit HOFers, and they were all, at least, very good, for those seasons in question. But to me, this is one time where the narrative, gut-type feeling lines up with the stats. Pettitte was, literally and figuratively, the #2 guy in your rotation.

IDK, maybe he gets in because we'll have a dry spell of 70/80/90 WAR starters on the ballot and he'll start to look like the best of the rest. But I just don't see it
   1056. Random Transaction Generator Posted: January 03, 2018 at 04:26 PM (#5600354)
My predictions:

Halladay 78% (his untimely passing will probably get him more than enough sympathy to make it on the first ballot)
Pettitte 40% (he'll get an initial PED penalty)
Helton 35% (people will look to put a Rockies player in the HOF, and he's a good candidate outside of that)
   1057. GregD Posted: January 03, 2018 at 04:30 PM (#5600359)
The discussion of Drysdale let me to look at his page and the Franchise Page, and I was very surprised to see that Don Drysdale is the Dodgers career leader in WAR with 67 (including batting and pitching).
How do you get the combined list on BBRef? I can quickly get to the pitching and hitting franchise career leaders but don't see the combined leaderboard.
   1058. dlf Posted: January 03, 2018 at 04:33 PM (#5600363)
How do you get the combined list on BBRef? I can quickly get to the pitching and hitting franchise career leaders but don't see the combined leaderboard.


The quickest way is to look at the pictures heading each team's franchise page.
   1059. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 03, 2018 at 04:38 PM (#5600369)
Helton 35% (people will look to put a Rockies player in the HOF, and he's a good candidate outside of that)


I can't see this. Larry Walker's vote total is Todd Helton's ceiling. Walker has a number of advantages over Helton in terms of a traditional Hall-of-Fame case: he won an MVP award, he won more Gold Gloves at a more important defensive position, and Walker has a body of work outside of his Rockies years that one can use to get a feel for how to deal with his Rockie years (Walker batted .322 his last year in Montreal; he hit 26 HR in 545 PA as an old man in St. Louis). In contrast, Helton doesn't have an overwhelming amount of hardware (5 All-Star games, 3 Gold Gloves, 4 Silver Sluggers, 2 top-10 MVP finishes (top finish of 5th)), and his entire career is affected by having played in the thin air of Denver. And Walker also beats Helton by 11.5 career WAR, so it's not like a more sabermetric-savvy electorate is going to do Helton any favors vis-a-vis Walker.

If Walker eventually gets up to the 40-50% range (and he well might based on how he's doing so far this year), maybe that leaves room for Helton to eventually get up to 35%, especially as the strength of the ballot thins out, but I'd be surprised if Helton debuts that high.
   1060. ajnrules Posted: January 03, 2018 at 04:43 PM (#5600375)
I'm not even sure at this point he's going to see a first ballot, unless he comes back and pitches 4-5 more years. He's barely eligible as it is, and with only 110 wins I don't think even the two CYA will be enough to get him on a ballot.

Tim Lincecum is at 21.3 pitching bWAR. Here are the pitchers with at least 250 starts with fewer bWAR than Timmy that made the ballot since 2000.

21.1...Todd Stottlemyre (2008)
20.8...Mike Hampton (2016)
20.5...Darryl Kile (2003)
20.2...Aaron Sele (2013)
19.8...Jim Abbott (2005)
19.7...Tom Browning (2001)
19.0...Ron Darling (2001)
18.1...Shane Reynolds (2010)
18.0...Danny Jackson (2003)
16.0...Kirk Rueter (2011)
14.9...Bobby Witt (2007)
13.7...Jim Deshaies (2001)
12.8...Terry Mulholland (2012)

Obviously none of those pitchers have won a single Cy Young, and of those only Hampton, Abbott, and Danny Jackson even finished in the top 3. None of them have led the league in strikeouts (which Timmy has done three times) and of those only Stottlemyre, Kile, Reynolds and Witt even had a 200-strikeout season. They combined for seven World Series titles (Timmy alone has three), and 13 All-Star teams (Timmy alone has four). True most of them had more wins than Lincecum's 110, but none of them matches Timmy in actual fame or star power. I know the screening committee makes some baffling choices, but I'd be more surprised if Lincecum misses the ballot than if he makes it.

EDIT: Dang most of y'all have moved on since I started researching this. Oh well.
   1061. dlf Posted: January 03, 2018 at 04:47 PM (#5600376)
Larry Walker's vote total is Todd Helton's ceiling. Walker has a number of advantages ...


I think that Helton has two advantages. First, he has all of his career with one team; Walker is most clearly associated with one, but spent a decent chunk elsewhere and first became a minor star for a team that no longer exists. Second, and probably more importantly, Helton comes on a ballot that has been thinned significantly already. I don't necessarily believe these will outweigh the other valid points you raise, but could.
   1062. Ithaca2323 Posted: January 03, 2018 at 04:57 PM (#5600383)
Larry Walker's vote total is Todd Helton's ceiling. Walker has a number of advantages ...


This has always been my stance. I just don't see how you vote for Helton and not Walker

First, he has all of his career with one team; Walker is most clearly associated with one, but spent a decent chunk elsewhere


But this is Colorado and hitters we're talking about. If anything, Walker's helped by this because you can at least see that he was capable of being a great hitter elsewhere. Helton will have no such luxury.
   1063. soc40 Posted: January 03, 2018 at 05:03 PM (#5600388)
Lincecum won 2 Cy Youngs and will be lucky to see a second ballot.


Timmy will surely be on the ballot when eligible. No doubt about it. 2 No Hitters, 2 Cy Youngs, 3 World Series rings. Trivia: Lincecum is one of only two pitchers in MLB history to win multiple World Series championships, multiple Cy Young Awards, throw multiple no-hitters, and be elected to multiple All-Star Games. Who's the other?
   1064. Booey Posted: January 03, 2018 at 05:12 PM (#5600398)
#1063 - Koufax
   1065. Booey Posted: January 03, 2018 at 05:23 PM (#5600411)
How many pitchers in the CYA era have 2 no hitters, period?
   1066. soc40 Posted: January 03, 2018 at 05:44 PM (#5600430)
Not sure but Nolan Ryan will piss on all of them
   1067. dlf Posted: January 03, 2018 at 05:55 PM (#5600437)
How many pitchers in the CYA era have 2 no hitters, period?


In order of when they hurled their second:

Spahn
Koufax
Bunning
Maloney
Wilson
Holtzman
Stoneman
Ryan
Busby
B.Forsch
Nomo
Buehrle
Halladay
Verlander
Bailey
Lincecum
Hamels
Scherzer
Arrieta


Plus Mike Witt, Kent Merker, and Kevin Millwood had single game no hitters plus also took part in multi-pitcher no-nos.
   1068. Booey Posted: January 03, 2018 at 06:00 PM (#5600442)
1066 - Yep, until some of them start flashing their CYA's around...
   1069. Booey Posted: January 03, 2018 at 06:05 PM (#5600446)
So pitchers with multiple CYA's AND multiple no hitters is just Koufax, Halladay, Lincecum, and Scherzer. Should have included Verlander, but he got screwed in 2016 in what would have been his 2nd CYA. I coulda swore the Unit had 2 no-no's as well. Guess not...

Scherzer needs to lead the Nats to a couple of titles to join the list in #1063.
   1070. dlf Posted: January 03, 2018 at 06:09 PM (#5600448)
I coulda swore the Unit had 2 no-no's as well. Guess not...


He did -- I just missed him. Mea culpa.

...

Addendum - Jim Maloney would have had three no-nos (no-no-nos?) but lost one in the 11th inning.
   1071. EddieA Posted: January 03, 2018 at 06:27 PM (#5600460)
Plus Mike Witt, Kent Merker, and Kevin Millwood had single game no hitters plus also took part in multi-pitcher no-nos.


So really Mercker had more career no-hitters than career shut-outs.
   1072. The Duke Posted: January 03, 2018 at 07:02 PM (#5600483)
I can’t see Halladay debuting at more than 50%, I would guess closer to 35-40%. If Mussina and schilling can’t get any love, im not sure why halladay should be a lock for 70-80%. Not sure why so many people feel like he is inner-circle. He’s a worthy case but not a no-brainer
   1073. GregD Posted: January 03, 2018 at 08:13 PM (#5600500)
The quickest way is to look at the pictures heading each team's franchise page.
thanks
   1074. Rally Posted: January 03, 2018 at 08:50 PM (#5600518)
I would not call Halladay inner circle but he’s getting in. I can’t make a logical case as to why he goes in first ballot while Mussina and Schilling have to take the long road, but that’s just my reading of how the baseball writers perceive each pitcher.
   1075. kwarren Posted: January 03, 2018 at 09:53 PM (#5600530)
#889

Thank you for your first post.

Unfortunately, you're still comparing Mariano to other relievers. And comparing a reliever's ERA+ to starters ERA+ is a useless and meaningless thing to do. It is analogous to comparing the raw speed of a 100 metre sprinter to a miler and saying a 12.0 sec 100m is better than a 3:50 mile because the runner ran so much faster, totally neglecting the fact that hundreds of thousands of high school students could run faster for a distance of 100 yards than a elite world miler could maintain for a mile. Relievers put up their gaudy stats in 1-inning intervals (and often less), and relievers typically go six innings or more in each outing. You simply can't use a rate stat to compare them. Use WAR or WAA (value stats compared to rate stats) and you get a general idea, of the value of each to his team. And on top of all that relievers have far less value to their team, are more easily replaced, and make much less money. When it comes to pitchers relievers are clearly 2nd class citizens so why all the fuss when they get a bunch of saves, and put up gaudy ERA and K-stats. It's just nonsense which started to take root when "saves" became a thing.
   1076. Booey Posted: January 03, 2018 at 10:01 PM (#5600532)
I can’t see Halladay debuting at more than 50%, I would guess closer to 35-40%. If Mussina and schilling can’t get any love, im not sure why halladay should be a lock for 70-80%.


Black Ink:

Doc - 48
Schill - 42
Moose - 15

CYA shares:

Doc - 3.50 (9th all time), 2 wins
Schill - 1.85 (25th all time), 0 wins
Moose - 0.92 (66th all time), 0 wins


I really think the 2 CYA's and the status as arguably the best pitcher in baseball for a half decade are huge. It's all about timing. Mussina and Schilling were overshadowed their entire careers by Clemens/Maddux/Johnson/Pedro (and to a lesser extent, Glavine and Smoltz). Halladay's later debut put most his peak years in the interval between the peaks of those guys and Kershaw. If RJ didn't exist and Schilling had won back to back CYA's in 2001 and 2002, he'd probably be in by now. None of this is "fair", of course, but that's just how people roll sometimes (and I don't think it's even a BBWAA thing; if you asked regular - i.e. not stathead - fans who was better between Mussina and Doc, I'm guessing Halladay wins in a landslide).
   1077. toratoratora Posted: January 03, 2018 at 10:09 PM (#5600533)
My bad. I can't remember who is was.

It might have been me. While personally believing Thome is deserving of 1st ballot induction, I thought the lack of narrative, multiple teams, low BA, and being a slugger that hit HR in the steroid era would all combine in sportswriters eyes to make him a 2nd or 3rd ballot inductee. As I stated earlier in the thread, I am happily surprised he is doing so well.
Shrugs.
Course I thought Vlad would sail in 1st vote on BA and narrative, so what do I know
   1078. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: January 03, 2018 at 10:14 PM (#5600535)
I really think the 2 CYA's and the status as arguably the best pitcher in baseball for a half decade are huge.


I was just coming to post something similar in response to both 1074 and 1072.
Being considered the best for 5-6 years is simply huge. This is reflected in the Cy voting at the time. Then he went ahead and threw the perfect game and the playoff no-no and the narrative went up a notch.

As Booey points out, Mussina and Schilling were never considered the best when they were playing.Timing in this case is everything. Schilling was awfully close and had lots of K's.
I think people underestimate that 3000+ K club. That's pretty exclusive and I think even the old school guys see that as an accomplishment.

Doc is going in 3 tries or less. Being the best for half decade or more is something very few pitchers can claim. Whether it's entirely 100% accurate is up for debate but that was the perception at the time.
   1079. kwarren Posted: January 03, 2018 at 10:41 PM (#5600538)
But people here seem to assume that WAR was handed down from on high on stone tablets, where these hidden assumptions and ass-pulls are simply taken as unquestioned gospel, and then used to whack away at whoever's pet peeve.

After seeing what what your "ass pulls" have uncovered (higher leverage for Mariano, and a favourable adjustment for DH's) I think I'm kind of starting to like WAR. Certainly it is great as a starting point. If you want to point out what WAR is getting wrong with regard to relievers and DHs please do so. It's interesting to note that the major league pay scale for these limited roles pretty much line up exactly with WAR. When you look at $ paid / WAR it is the same for relievers and DHS as everybody else. So whether is gospel or not, WAR seems to pretty much in line with the guys who are paying the big bucks to pay the players.

Atlanta in 1992 and 1996 had the lowest runs allowed per game by relief pitchers in the NL. In fact from 1992 to 2002 the Braves had the lowest RA per game in the NL every single year. Hard to be better than the best.

This makes no sense. Rivera didn't play for the Braves. They couldn't have the best bullpen. No, not possible !!
   1080. Baldrick Posted: January 03, 2018 at 10:51 PM (#5600542)
Career K numbers are really strange. For example, it blows my mind that Walter Johnson is still in the top 10 all-time for strikeouts, and within spitting distance of the top 5.

And for all that we're now in the age of ridiculous strikeout rates, it will be a decent chunk of time before he's knocked out of the top 10, too. There are a ton of active players in the low 2000s for career strikeouts, but (apart from Kershaw and maybe Verlander) I'm not sure I'd really bet on any of them actually reaching Johnson up at 3509. Even with K rates what they are, guys just don't pitch enough innings these days to put up huge numbers. Presumably at least one of Greinke, Hamels, Felix, Lester, Sale, etc is able to hang on until their late 30s and get there. But maybe not.

It also seems crazy that Blyleven is still #5 all-time in strikeouts - and that it took him so long to get elected given that fact.
   1081. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 03, 2018 at 10:52 PM (#5600543)
1972.....Sandy Koufax / Early Wynn (4)
1973.....Warren Spahn
1974.....Whitey Ford (2)
1975.....
1976.....Robin Roberts (4) / Bob Lemon (12)
1977.....
1978.....
1979.....
1980.....
1981.....Bob Gibson
1982.....
1983.....Juan Marichal (3)
1984.....Don Drysdale (10)
1985.....
1986.....
1987.....Catfish Hunter (3)
1988.....
1989.....
1990.....Jim Palmer
1991.....Gaylord Perry (3) / Fergie Jenkins (3)
1992.....Tom Seaver
1993.....
1994.....Steve Carlton
1995.....
1996.....
1997.....Phil Niekro (5)
1998.....Don Sutton (5)
1999.....Nolan Ryan
2000.....
2001.....
2002.....
2003.....
2004.....
2005.....
2006.....
2007.....
2008.....
2009.....
2010.....
2011.....Bert Blyleven (14)
2012.....
2013.....
2014.....Greg Maddux / Tom Glavine
2015.....Pedro Martinez/Randy Johnson/John Smoltz
2016.....
2017.....
2018.....


   1082. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 03, 2018 at 11:11 PM (#5600548)
Mussina, Schilling, and Halladay will hopefully all be inducted by 2021. I am guesstimating that Kershaw retires after his age-37 season
(back issues), which would result in an induction year of 2031. Thus, there could be another long lull (9 years) of starting-pitcher inductions
that would almost match the 2000-2010 drought. Of course, a few guys who could sneak in there earlier if they finish their careers strong.
   1083. kwarren Posted: January 03, 2018 at 11:13 PM (#5600549)
I just wish Barry would have been content with the amazing player he was.
He was, until he realized that he could be much better. He owed it to his team to be the best that he could be. That's what sports is all about.


So, there's a very clear hierarchy, but it's one that actually doesn't tell us what's likely to happen to Halladay - the hierarchy stays equally clear whether Halladay gets elected or not. Pitchers who win MORE than two Cy Youngs make the Hall of Fame (unless they're believed to have used hGH). Pitchers who win exactly two Cy Young awards make the Hall of Fame if they win at least X games, where 168 =< X <= 251. If X<=203, then Halladay gets in. If X>204, Halladay's out.

Ah, the old Cy Young / Wins algorithm. Works every time. Does this mean that Mariano is out ? A big bust in both categories. But then we discovered saves, leverage, post-season credit, and ERA+ and all was well again.

I have a hard time accepting the huge gap between Halladay and Johan Santana as far their treatment by the voters.

I have a hard time accepting the huge gap between Sandy Koufax and Johan Santana as far their treatment by the voters.
   1084. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: January 03, 2018 at 11:19 PM (#5600550)
I really think the 2 CYA's and the status as arguably the best pitcher in baseball for a half decade are huge.

FWIW, Robin Roberts was the best pitcher in baseball for about half a decade and took four ballots to get in. (He debuted at the same time as Whitey Ford and with a lower percentage.)

Now, Roberts is the most recent counterexample I could find, and he also had unfortunate timing in that his best stretch came immediately before the Cy Young was invented. So this isn't a guarantee of anything. I hope Halladay goes in right away, but I have some suspicion that it may be 2-3 years.
   1085. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 03, 2018 at 11:26 PM (#5600552)
The manager should have given Robin Roberts some late innings off once in awhile.
   1086. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 04, 2018 at 01:09 AM (#5600570)
Rob Picciolo passed away yesterday. I believe he was the first member of the 1982 Brewers to move on.
I was wondering how far back one would have to go to find a pennant-winning team that still has all living members.
I would think that there is no easy way to do that, but it would be interesting.
   1087. BABiP_Roberts Posted: January 04, 2018 at 01:57 AM (#5600575)
#1075

At the risk of reopening this can of worms, a response:

I understand comparing closers to starters using a rate stat is an apples to oranges comparison but all the numbers I cited in my post are what voters are going to look at when looking at Mariano's career come voting time*. Looking at just WAR has him as a borderline candidate but I believe WAA has him as worthy and my overall point was that if you just want to say he's a pitcher, rather than classifying relievers as their own category, then his overall resume puts him at borderline and his playoff numbers push him over the top. When you take into account what he accomplished in just 1300 or so innings his career is even more impressive. Salary wise I believe Mariano was compensated similarly to his starting pitcher contemporaries in part because he played for the Yankees, yes but also because of his legendary status as well as his unbelievable consistency. I don't use saves when assessing player value I agree it's nonsense.

*This assumes anyone even looks at his numbers. I suspect he gets more than 95% of the vote and most of the electorate simply put a checkmark next to his name and move on without having to do any real analysis.
   1088. shoewizard Posted: January 04, 2018 at 02:02 AM (#5600577)
Mussina, Schilling, and Halladay will hopefully all be inducted by 2021. I am guesstimating that Kershaw retires after his age-37 season
(back issues), which would result in an induction year of 2031. Thus, there could be another long lull (9 years) of starting-pitcher inductions
that would almost match the 2000-2010 drought. Of course, a few guys who could sneak in there earlier if they finish their careers strong.


You probably have better handle on all this than I do, but here is what I'm thinking:

Here are the top guys in WAA not in HOF

Rk            Player WAA/pitch
1      Roger Clemens      94.6
2     Curt Schilling      54.1
3       Mike Mussina      48.6
4       Roy Halladay      40.7
5        Kevin Brown      40.5
6      Rick Reuschel      38.0
7    Bret Saberhagen      36.8
8         David Cone      35.6 


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 1/3/2018.

Looking at that, it would seem that a pitcher needs to get to a bare minimum of 40 WAA these days to have a shot, WAA being a proxy as if you have over 40 WAA you have a bunch of the juicy stuff traditional voters like generally. And realistically, you better get to 45 WAA to be on more solid footing. And this assumes that all 3 of Schilling, Moose, and Doc all get in.

From there, looking at active pitchers, 2018 baseball age in parentheses

Rk             Player WAA/pitch
1     Clayton Kershaw      42.0  
(30)
2        Zack Greinke      35.3  (34)
3         Cole Hamels      33.5  (33)
4    Justin Verlander      33.1  (35)
5         CC Sabathia      29.6  (37)
6     Felix Hernandez      28.8  (32)
7        Max Scherzer      28.2  (33


It doesn't "feel" like anyone below Kershaw on that list is getting to 45.

Greinke had 4.4 WAA last year, but he lost 2 ticks off his fastball, his swing and miss rate on his 4 seamer cratered the last two years, and he really did it with a ton of sliders and smoke and mirrors, (and really good command and pitcher defense too of course). I can see him crossing the 40 threshold perhaps, but I think 45 is a long shot.

Hamels has posted over 2 WAA just once in the past 4 seasons, (2016).

Verlander just posted 2 pretty big seasons at ages 33-34. Maybe he is one of those guys that goes strong for 3-4 more years and gets into the upper 40's. As has been discussed with him before, if he does that, he'll get in pretty easy.

CC: Pass.

King Felix: Needs a big push and seems like a long shot to approach 45, and not very good chance at even 40.

Mad Max: Needs to have the years that Verlander just had the next two seasons to be on Verlanders current track, and THEN keep going another 3 years after that.


Summary:

Baseball being baseball, I'll bet that one of these 6 guys surprises us with how good their mid-late 30's are. So I think there is a decent chance there is at least one active starter that goes in before Kershaw.


PS: the only active reliever I see maybe getting on HOF radar is Kimbrel. But he needs to maintain for at least another 4 years I'd think.

   1089. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: January 04, 2018 at 02:54 AM (#5600578)
#1080:
Rob Picciolo passed away yesterday. I believe he was the first member of the 1982 Brewers to move on.
I was wondering how far back one would have to go to find a pennant-winning team that still has all living members.
I would think that there is no easy way to do that, but it would be interesting.



The 1991 Braves are all still alive, although Marvin Freeman is starving and Otis Nixon is 3,750 years old and could disintegrate into cursed sand at any moment.

Only Pedro Borbon has died from the 1976 Reds. And Sparky Anderson, if we're counting managers.
   1090. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 04, 2018 at 04:06 AM (#5600579)
TORONTO BLUE JAYS 1992 / 1993 are all alive !!! They replace the 1982 BREWERS as the most-recent pennant winner with all living members.

1991 Braves had Rick Mahler, so they're out.
   1091. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 04, 2018 at 04:32 AM (#5600580)
(1088) Verlander probably gets in with 4 more solid seasons through age 38. He'll be around 250 wins and over 70 WAR.
Scherzer is so good I can see him pitching until age 40 and going in around the same time as Kershaw. Of course, he got a late start
so he needs to not miss too much time with injuries. I think Greinke is more of a longshot. He had his two monster years and a few
more good seasons, but I don't know if he has another monster season in him.
   1092. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: January 04, 2018 at 06:02 AM (#5600581)
1991 Braves had Rick Mahler, so they're out.


Oops, I overlooked him. So close!

Mahler only got 1 more hit in 1991 than he'll get next year.
   1093. Random Transaction Generator Posted: January 04, 2018 at 06:53 AM (#5600583)
TORONTO BLUE JAYS 1992 / 1993 are all alive !!! They replace the 1982 BREWERS as the most-recent pennant winner with all living members.


You mean OLDEST pennant winner with all living members.

And the 1993 team had a recent scare as Tony Fernandez was recently quite ill in the hospital during the holidays.

   1094. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 04, 2018 at 08:18 AM (#5600590)
(1093)Yes, I don't kmow why I said "most-recent". I didn't even know the Brewers were the oldest "all-alive" pennabt winner.
   1095. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: January 04, 2018 at 08:38 AM (#5600596)
I understand comparing closers to starters using a rate stat is an apples to oranges comparison but all the numbers I cited in my post are what voters are going to look at when looking at Mariano's career come voting time*. Looking at just WAR has him as a borderline candidate but I believe WAA has him as worthy and my overall point was that if you just want to say he's a pitcher, rather than classifying relievers as their own category, then his overall resume puts him at borderline and his playoff numbers push him over the top.

Well, at least (so far) in this thread nobody's said that postseason numbers shouldn't be taken into account. That may have been the single stupidest point ever made in these HoF debates, and not so so long ago it used to rear its silly head fairly often----"It's unfair to players who didn't make it to the postseason, so let's pretend those postseason numbers don't exist."
   1096. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 04, 2018 at 09:01 AM (#5600602)
(1090) The Brewers held the "oldest all-alive pennant winner" title since June 9, 2014, when Bob Welch of the 1981 Dodgers passed away.
   1097. PreservedFish Posted: January 04, 2018 at 09:15 AM (#5600608)
That may have been the single stupidest point ever made in these HoF debates, and not so so long ago it used to rear its silly head fairly often


It seems that RDP has dropped his experimental trolling argument that the playoffs are a meaningless exhibition.
   1098. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: January 04, 2018 at 09:48 AM (#5600622)
Well, at least (so far) in this thread nobody's said that postseason numbers shouldn't be taken into account. That may have been the single stupidest point ever made in these HoF debates, and not so so long ago it used to rear its silly head fairly often----"It's unfair to players who didn't make it to the postseason, so let's pretend those postseason numbers don't exist."

It seems that RDP has dropped his experimental trolling argument that the playoffs are a meaningless exhibition.


Right, but I'm keeping hope alive that he'll come up with an even more amusing catchphrase. Maybe "Fall Training games" or something along those lines.
   1099. John DiFool2 Posted: January 04, 2018 at 10:23 AM (#5600644)
After seeing what what your "ass pulls" have uncovered (higher leverage for Mariano, and a favourable adjustment for DH's) I think I'm kind of starting to like WAR. Certainly it is great as a starting point. If you want to point out what WAR is getting wrong with regard to relievers and DHs please do so.


https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/re-examining-wars-defensive-spectrum/\

https://www.baseballessential.com/news/2015/04/23/time-reevaluate-war-positional-adjustments/

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-mvp-and-the-dh-adjustment/

https://sports.yahoo.com/news/10-degrees--why-war-doesn-t-always-add-up-030133203.html

[of the 1st two, #1 is more in depth, and I've linked to it here before, guess you missed it]

You seem to be laboring under the misconception that ALL aspects of WAR have these huge bodies of evidence backing them up, when in truth some of them are indeed no better than ass-pulls. Should the reliever leverage adjustment be higher? Lower? Nonexistent? How would YOU in your apparently infinite wisdom determine what it should be? So to have you continue to sit there and spout your rigid unyielding POV while accusing others of "ass-pulls" is deeply disingenuous, Mr. Moses.

Again, what does the fact that these different systems come to different conclusions say to you? How do you determine what the One Truth Faith should be? The one which devalues relievers excessively, no doubt (so, Fangraphs'], since I do NOT see you linking to such articles.
   1100. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: January 04, 2018 at 10:50 AM (#5600662)
Someone needs to learn how to use the <a> tab, someone does.
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