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Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Ryan Thibs has his HOF Ballot Tracker Up and Running!

Ryan has received his first official ballot, courtesy of Adam Rubib. Ten votes, including Vizquel.

So who gets a higher percentage of vote this year, Trammell with the VC or Vizquel with the BBWAA? (Only partly a tongue-in-cheek question…)

TJ Posted: November 22, 2017 at 02:48 PM | 1774 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame

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   1201. ajnrules Posted: January 05, 2018 at 06:41 PM (#5601702)
Dan Brouthers: Hayes, Garfield, Arthur, Cleveland, Harrison, Cleveland, McKinley plus a ceremonial two games six years later for Roosevelt.

Unfortunately it doesn't seem like Brouthers made it to McKinley's inauguration. His last appearance prior to his ceremonial stent in 1904 came in 1896. McKinley was elected in 1896, but did not assume the presidency until 1897, when Brouthers was playing for Springfield in the Eastern League.
   1202. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 05, 2018 at 06:42 PM (#5601705)
(1199) When I was buying the US versions in the 1970's, I only knew about the UK real versions from a book I had.
I know Capitol Records wanted to squeeze out a few more bucks, and I guess albums back then weren't considered
artistic statements yet.
Of course, the British record company didn't include "I Want to Hold Your Hand / This Boy" on "With the Beatles" or
"I Feel Fine / She's a Woman" on "Beatles for Sale", two early albums that each included six cover songs.
So, fifty years later, you look back at those albums and see what they should have been.
(Leaving "We Can Work It Out / Day Tripper" off of "Rubber Soul" and "Paperback Writer / Rain" off of "Revolver" isn't
as bad because those two classics are loaded with 14 originals each.)

Oh, yeah, back to baseball. I like Larry Walker.
   1203. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: January 05, 2018 at 06:44 PM (#5601706)
Larry Walker was at 10.2 percent four years ago.

First, it also looks like it will be hard for Walker to get in, despite this year's increase.

Second, that ballot was Walker's low point, largely because it may have been the most stacked Hall ballot since the first one. This year's ballot is pretty strong (and includes a superior positional rival to Rolen), but it's not 2014.

That's not to say Rolen is necessarily hopeless, with or without Stark's vote. But he's not in a great spot.
   1204. SoSH U at work Posted: January 05, 2018 at 07:46 PM (#5601726)
First, it also looks like it will be hard for Walker to get in, despite this year's increase.

Second, that ballot was Walker's low point, largely because it may have been the most stacked Hall ballot since the first one. This year's ballot is pretty strong (and includes a superior positional rival to Rolen), but it's not 2014.

That's not to say Rolen is necessarily hopeless, with or without Stark's vote. But he's not in a great spot.


The point was, if it's impossible for Rolen to make it with a starting spot of something in the 8 percent neighborhood, then it's also got to be impossible for Walker to make it from having just 10 percent support during his 10th year on the ballot.

My take: neither's getting in, or particularly close, through the BBWAA.

   1205. gabrielthursday Posted: January 05, 2018 at 07:52 PM (#5601730)
I wouldn't be confident that Rolen will drop when the private ballots come in. Those voters have, in the past, tended to have more variation in their ballots - almost always more sceptical of high vote-getters, but often being more supportive of less-popular candidates. Larry Walker, probably the most similar player to Rolen on the ballot (Sabr-approved, oft-injured, strong defensive and baserunning reputations) generally received more support from private ballots than public ones - until last year, where public voters moved more quickly on him. McGriff is another example of a less popular candidate untainted with PEDs outperforming with the private voters.
   1206. cardsfanboy Posted: January 05, 2018 at 08:01 PM (#5601734)
I have no problem with strategic voting and using Ryan's spreadsheet seems like a good way to make these types of decisions. That said, if I had nine locks and was choosing between Walker and Rolen for my tenth slot (and actually, that's probably somewhat close to where I'd really end up), I think I'd choose Rolen as my strategic vote. Rolen's sitting low enough that (a) he's in danger of falling below 5% and (b) even if he breaks 5%, he's starting so, so low that any little vote will help to make him seem more viable. Whereas Walker is kind of in the sweet spot: (i) he's high enough that he's in no danger of falling off the ballot, (ii) he's already showing momentum that could help him gain traction, but (iii) he has no chance of actually being elected this year.


That is a tough one if it was my vote... On this ballot I don't see 9 names ahead of Walker though personally, but if I'm a voter and thinking strategically.. I'm going to give Bonds, Clemens a vote to help maintain any gains they get. Chipper gets a vote, because as a voter I want to state "I helped this guy make the hof....even if he clears it by 23%.... Mussina, Schilling, Thome all get my vote. As a guy who doesn't care about PED's, Manny gets my vote simply to make the statement that "I don't care about PED's". beyond that, Rolen, Walker are the next best candidates anyway, Edgar and Vlad are the guys I would be thinking about strategically.
   1207. cardsfanboy Posted: January 05, 2018 at 08:05 PM (#5601737)

The point was, if it's impossible for Rolen to make it with a starting spot of something in the 8 percent neighborhood, then it's also got to be impossible for Walker to make it from having just 10 percent support during his 10th year on the ballot.

My take: neither's getting in, or particularly close, through the BBWAA.


The point is though, that they will be given a chance to move up through the bbwaa, and the veteran's committee is very much beholden(historically) to what that bbwaa voters have thought(barring the Frisch years) Add in that the rules are set that you can't appear on the veteran's comittee ballot until your hof eligibility time ends up, and if Rolen is one and done, he has to wait another 10+ years before they can consider him, and that is ten years without the back and forth debate of his candidacy, which clearly helped Trammel and Morris this time around (and not Ted Simmons)

   1208. SoSH U at work Posted: January 05, 2018 at 08:18 PM (#5601741)
The point is though, that they will be given a chance to move up through the bbwaa, and the veteran's committee is very much beholden(historically) to what that bbwaa voters have thought(barring the Frisch years) Add in that the rules are set that you can't appear on the veteran's comittee ballot until your hof eligibility time ends up, and if Rolen is one and done, he has to wait another 10+ years before they can consider him, and that is ten years without the back and forth debate of his candidacy, which clearly helped Trammel and Morris this time around (and not Ted Simmons)


OK, but that's not really a counter to what I wrote.
   1209. cardsfanboy Posted: January 05, 2018 at 08:29 PM (#5601746)
OK, but that's not really a counter to what I wrote.


Ehh...just stating. If I'm strategically voting I'm trying to keep the guy on the ballot as long as possible. Strategic voting isn't just about getting the guy in on the bbwaa ballot, but getting the guy in period. And I don't really think historical precedent has as much validity with the next decade ballot as it did with the previous 50 years.
   1210. Jaack Posted: January 05, 2018 at 08:48 PM (#5601755)
Stark probably made the right strategic choice regarding Rolen vs Walker. Rolen is more than likely safe for next year - he needs like 2% of the unnanounced voters to vote for him. Jim Edmonds cleared that, and he didn't do nearly as well in the early returns. Hell, Magglio Ordonez did that among private voters last year. Stark is probably going to have 4 ballot spots cleared up by this year's vote. If Halladay and Rivera take two, that leaves a spot for another newcomer and Rolen.

Walker pushing 45-50% on his final ballot would be huge. Assuming Edgar sneaks in next year, that makes Walker the clear VC player candidate in 2022. I can't see Kevin Brown doing all that well, Palmeiro's a definite no unless attitudes really shift in the next few years. There are a lot of possible managers that could be on the ballot that year - Pinella, Leyland, Dusty, and if they retire, Bochy and Maddon - but Bochy is the only first ballot lock I'd say. With a surge of support Walker could be in the Hall in 5 years, which is something that seemed impossible a couple months ago. Rolen is more than likely 15 years away at best, and a vote today is unlikely to change that.

All in all, aside from Andruw Jones, Walker seems like just about the best candidate to choose for a strategic vote. Rolen is likely safely over 5%, and Vlad/Chipper/Thome/Hoffman are probably safely in. Edgar probably isn't going in this year, but more than likely next year. There isn't really anyone right on the borderline of either threshold (75%/5%) this year aside from Andruw. At that point it's about getting guys momentum, and Walker could make some great use of momentum.
   1211. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 05, 2018 at 11:05 PM (#5601800)
Edgar probably isn't going in this year, but more than likely next year. There isn't really anyone right on the borderline of either threshold (75%/5%) this year aside from Andruw.

Edgar is close enough that voting for him this year is a good strategy, IMHO, considering the potential effect on next year's ballot - freeing up another 325-350 ballots that would otherwise (hopefully) put Edgar over the top in his final year. He was 73 votes short last year, and seems on pace to pick up ~ 55-60, but that's close enough for those who think him worthy to go all in this year.
   1212. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 06, 2018 at 01:04 AM (#5601816)
I know this is just a rough estimate, but I figure if he's picked up 18 votes from the first 39.6% of the vote,
he would be on pace for 45.5 votes gained overall. (.396/18 = 1/X) (.396X=18) (X=18/.396) (x=45.45)
I don't know if that's a proper mathematical approach, but at least I showed my darn work.

   1213. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 06, 2018 at 01:27 AM (#5601819)
If I understand the spreadsheet methodology, Edgar has also picked up 7 of 9 1st-time voters, with 12 more virgin voters still to be accounted for. That puts him a little closer than #1212 suggests, although still a bit short, I think. There's also the question of how many voters that lapsed this year cast a ballot for Edgar last year.
   1214. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 06, 2018 at 02:04 AM (#5601821)
(1212) Or, I could have just rounded 39.6 up to 40 and went 18 X 2.5 = 45 in my head. I'm not the sharpest spoon in the drawer.
   1215. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 06, 2018 at 02:23 AM (#5601823)
I know this is just a rough estimate, but I figure if he's picked up 18 votes from the first 39.6% of the vote,
he would be on pace for 45.5 votes gained overall. (.396/18 = 1/X) (.396X=18) (X=18/.396) (x=45.45)
I don't know if that's a proper mathematical approach, but at least I showed my darn work.


I did an alternate calculation in comment #1048 that's more optimistic about Edgar's chances. Basically, if you look at Edgar's gains so far as a percentage of his "no" votes being converted to "yes", it looks better for him (39.6% of total voters made public so far is far less than 39% of Edgar's "no" votes). My guess is the truth lands somewhere in between and he falls short, but not too far short.

There's also the question of how many voters that lapsed this year cast a ballot for Edgar last year.


I checked this (see page 9 - just after #863 of this thread, I think). Of the voters that Ryan identifies as having lost their ballot, Edgar went 5-for-8 last year.

   1216. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 06, 2018 at 04:26 AM (#5601824)
Well, at least it looks like neither Edgar nor Raines will be hurt by the reduction from 15 years to 10.
   1217. homerwannabee Posted: January 06, 2018 at 10:06 AM (#5601845)
If voters are going to do strategic voting this late in the game, I would hope they vote for Santana. If he can get 5% this year, I'm certain he'd go up every year during his 10 year run on the ballot. Also someone like Andruw Jones whose on the 5% threshold is another good pick.
   1218. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 06, 2018 at 10:09 AM (#5601846)
It's not looking good for the Johan.
   1219. Adam Starblind Posted: January 06, 2018 at 10:35 AM (#5601849)
Vlad/Chipper/Thome/Hoffman are probably safely in


Hoffman's not out of the woods. He's down to 78.8. It would be annoying if he were still around next year. If so, he might well lose some votes because of the Mariano comparison, and then still be around in 2020.
   1220. Rennie's Tenet Posted: January 06, 2018 at 10:45 AM (#5601853)
The tracker now has 168 ballots. Last year (on another website), I memorialized totals after 166 ballots (January 4). This compares the two:

C. Jones 99% this year
Thome 94% this year
Bagwell 92% last year
Raines 91% last year
Rodriguez 84% last year

Guerrero 76% last year (94% this year)
Hoffman 73% (79%)
Bonds 69% (67%)
Martinez 69% (81%)
Clemens 69% (67%)
Mussina 61% (74%)
Schilling 53% (68%)

Vizquel 29% this year
Ramirez 28% (26%)
Smith 28% last year
Walker 25% (40%)
McGriff 15% (17%)
Sheffield 13% (10%)
Kent 13% (11%)
Wagner 12% (10%)
Sosa 11% (13%)
Rolen 11% this year
A. Jones 5.4% this year
   1221. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 06, 2018 at 10:56 AM (#5601856)
Re: Presidents

Joe Start began playing in 1860 and retired in 1886. Prior to the formation of the NA in 1871, players were amateur but top players like Start in name only. So Start could have this list of Presidents:
Buchanan (1860)
Lincoln (1861)
Johnson (1865)
Grant (1869)
Hayes (1877)
Garfield (1881)
Arthur (1881)
Cleveland (1885)

That’s eight Prezzes. Deacon White also gets to seven since he played from 1868 onward, which knocks out Buchanan and Lincoln but tacks on Harrison.
   1222. SoSH U at work Posted: January 06, 2018 at 10:57 AM (#5601857)
Hoffman's not out of the woods. He's down to 78.8. It would be annoying if he were still around next year. If so, he might well lose some votes because of the Mariano comparison, and then still be around in 2020.


Nah, he's safe. He was just five votes shy last year and he's already +9 on returning voters, and 88 percent on newcomers. Similar to Biggio in his third year when he was on the cusp, there's no reason to think he'll lose more support from previous voters than gain support from previous nos the rest of the way.
   1223. The Duke Posted: January 06, 2018 at 11:04 AM (#5601860)
I think Edgar is going to convert a lot of voters. Morgan’s letter will probably keep anyone new from voting for the PED guys and many who have ignored Martinez in the past will probably start moving towards him. It seems guys with no PED rumors are all getting strong votes: Thome, jones, Martinez, mussina, schilling, vizquel, walker, Hoffman, McGriff all seem to be doing well/better. PED guys have stalled out and the borderline guys like Rolen, Santana, Kent, A jones are getting killed. Feels like there is a lot of focus on the top tier no-PED guys.
   1224. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 06, 2018 at 11:11 AM (#5601861)
Thanks to token appearances, Arlie Latham also reaches seven.
Hayes (1880)
Arthur (1883)
Cleveland (1885)
Harrison (1889)
Cleveland (1893)
McKinley (1899)
Roosevelt (1909)
   1225. The Duke Posted: January 06, 2018 at 11:24 AM (#5601864)
There are about 10 voters who capped out at 10 and would have liked to see vizquel and rolen added to their list so if vizquel finishes at 35-45% he will see another step up next year which might propel him in. Rolen will make his way to 20% next year and start to give people reason to re-evaluate him. Andruw jones may not even make it to next year and I don’t think McGriff is going to make a run either
   1226. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 06, 2018 at 01:43 PM (#5601931)
There are about 10 voters who capped out at 10 and would have liked to see vizquel and rolen added to their list so if vizquel finishes at 35-45% he will see another step up next year which might propel him in.

Vizquel is at 28.6%, so it would take quite a surge for him to get to 35%. He may also be a "high resistance" player who doesn't accumulate votes on subsequent ballots as quickly as normal. We're seeing some of that in Hoffman, who finished a bit ahead of Vlad last season, but presumably for the previously discussed reasons specific to him and closers generally, hasn't seen anything like surge Vlad is receiving.
   1227. DanG Posted: January 06, 2018 at 02:02 PM (#5601955)
Vizquel is at 28.6%, so it would take quite a surge for him to get to 35%. He may also be a "high resistance" player who doesn't accumulate votes on subsequent ballots as quickly as normal.
Exactly. Omar Vizquel will not be elected to the Hall by the writers.

The popular arguments for his case are facile, if not downright false. His is not a case that will persuade many voters on closer examination. Rather, it will tend to expose the weaknesses of his case.

Having said that, I don't think the 30% he gets in Year 1 will be his highest support. As the ballot crowding thins out he will pick up some votes, perhaps even doubling that at some point. That's his absolute ceiling.

His case is not unlike Lee Smith's. He debuted at 42% and stayed right around there. He topped out at just over 50% in Year 10. Don Mattingly is another who fits that profile, getting his max support in Year 1, 28%.
   1228. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 06, 2018 at 02:40 PM (#5601973)
Let's say there was a contest that asked you to pick 20 or more current POSITION PLAYERS that you think will make the HOF (by the BBWAA).
You (or your next of kin) get $10,000 for every correct pick, but lose $10,000 for every incorrect pick.
(Ichiro is still considered current).

C-Buster Posey

1B-Albert Pujols
1B-Miguel Cabrera
1B-Joey Votto
1B-Paul Goldschmidt
1B-Cody Bellinger

2B-Robinson Cano
2B-Jose Altuve

SS-Carlos Correa
SS-Corey Seager
SS-Francisco Lindor

3B-Manny Machado
3B-Adrian Beltre
3B-Kris Bryant
3B-Nolan Arenado

OF-Mike Trout
OF-Bryce Harper
OF-Giancarlo Stanton
OF-Ichiro
OF-Mookie Betts
   1229. Ziggy's screen name Posted: January 06, 2018 at 02:57 PM (#5601982)
For it to be wise to play that game you need 10 who will make it. Going down your list: Pujols, Cabrera, Cano, Beltre, Trout, Ichiro, these guys are locks. Of the remaining 14, am I confident that at least four of them will make it? Eh, I guess so. But I'm not confident about any particular one of them.
   1230. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 06, 2018 at 03:48 PM (#5602016)
(1229) Speaking of Russell Branyan, the Brewers got him from Cleveland on July 26, 2004. Despite having had plenty of big league
experience, he had been in the minors all season.
I went to see Maddux go for Win #299 on July 27th at Miller Park, Branyan's first start as a Brewer. Maddux had a 4-0 lead with 2 outs in the sixth,
until Branyan launched a moonshot off the scoreboard in right-center. Memorable.
   1231. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 06, 2018 at 03:52 PM (#5602018)
(1228/1229) OK, say you only lose $7,000 if you get one wrong. Plus the government forces you to do the contest.
   1232. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 06, 2018 at 03:55 PM (#5602019)
Morgan’s letter will probably keep anyone new from voting for the PED guys . . .

Bonds & Clemens currently have 88.9% & 100% of the first-time voters, and both received 86.7% last year. Small sample (9) thus far this year, and it could change, but I don't believe Morgan has much influence with any voters. The anti-PED zealots adopted their position long before Morgan spoke up, and their numbers appear to be declining, albeit slowly.
   1233. cardsfanboy Posted: January 06, 2018 at 04:03 PM (#5602027)
For it to be wise to play that game you need 10 who will make it. Going down your list: Pujols, Cabrera, Cano, Beltre, Trout, Ichiro, these guys are locks. Of the remaining 14, am I confident that at least four of them will make it? Eh, I guess so. But I'm not confident about any particular one of them.


I think Posey is a safe bet from his list, Altuve isn't a safe bet, but he is absolutely on the right path, same with Harper and Stanton. To me it looks like this list will at least break even. Votto might have convinced the naysayers with his performance last year, he was always going to have problems because of the perceived unwillingness to expand the strike zone(something that Ted Williams was also criticized for) A few are stretches but that is the way you have to do these things is look at the best odds.

Sad that Mauer no longer makes these types of lists, even though he had a solid year last year(3.4/1.3 war/waa) And he would need to do that for another 5 or so years as a first baseman to get the counting stats up(he'll probably need 2500 career hits.---still he is at 53.4 war right now and might break 60+ war while being mostly a catcher.)
   1234. Adam Starblind Posted: January 06, 2018 at 04:29 PM (#5602032)
Going down your list: Pujols, Cabrera, Cano, Beltre, Trout, Ichiro, these guys are locks.


Trout still has to play 3 more seasons before he's at 10 years. He is a lock in the sense that if he started to gradually decline tomorrow (he won't) he'd be a shoo in by the time he retired.

On the other hand, there's the scenario in which injuries tank his production for a tumultuous several seasons in which he plays between 50 and 110 games and is merely average. What then? He's got a 6-year stratospheric peak and that's basically all. The SABR crowd is in his corner, but what about others who see a guy with 1800 career hits, 325 HR, etc. Are there any comps?
   1235. The Duke Posted: January 06, 2018 at 04:33 PM (#5602037)
Morgan’s only goal was to hold the line on the people who were at risk of caving in. I think it will work. New voters are overwhelmingly pro-PED, so that should not be a surprise. Morgan just wanted to make sure they don’t make it in on writers ballot because there is little risk of other hall of famers putting them in.

Vizquel will do much better with private ballots just like Lee smith - I’d be surprised if he isn’t at 35-45%.
   1236. SoSH U at work Posted: January 06, 2018 at 04:51 PM (#5602046)
On the other hand, there's the scenario in which injuries tank his production for a tumultuous several seasons in which he plays between 50 and 110 games and is merely average. What then? He's got a 6-year stratospheric peak and that's basically all. The SABR crowd is in his corner, but what about others who see a guy with 1800 career hits, 325 HR, etc. Are there any comps?'


He sails into the Hall of Fame with folks wondering how great he would have been had it not been for the injuries. See Griffey, Jr.

The only impediment to Trout making the Hall of Fame is a failed steroid test or some heinous criminal activity. A six-year run as the unquestioned best player in baseball makes one a Hall lock.

   1237. Ziggy's screen name Posted: January 06, 2018 at 05:07 PM (#5602062)
Cliff-diving Trout comps:

Ralph Kiner
Chuck Klein
Al Rosen (sort of)
Johnny Mize (if you don't give him war credit)

and of course none of those guys were as good as Trout. If he actually got hit by a bus they'd give him the Addie Joss treatment, they'd just have to. If he cliff dives he gets in anyway. It really is just PEDs or gambling or something like that that could keep him out.
   1238. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 06, 2018 at 05:07 PM (#5602063)
Are there any comps?


Not really. Pitchers are far more likely to do what you suggest than position players - Sandy Koufax, for example, would be a good comp outside of the difficulty of comping pitchers to position players in general.

The closest thing to what you lay out in terms of career shape for a position player might be Hank Greenberg. His 13-year career includes seasons of 78, 19, 12, and 1 game. But he had a seven year run (which included his 12-game season, so six full seasons) where he won two MVP awards, finished top-3 in MVP voting four times, and led the league in HR and RBI three times (he always led in both or neither). Then he was drafted and missed the equivalent of about four full seasons (his 19-game and 78-games seasons were in 1941 and 1945 just before and after his military service).

Greenberg's last season was 1947 and he was elected to the HOF in 1956, but that was in the days when they were still working through 70 years worth of players and the eligibility rules were unclear (Greenberg got his first HOF votes in 1945), so I don't know that one can use Greenberg's HOF voting to make any real guesses about how one might treat your hypothetical Mike Trout.
   1239. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 06, 2018 at 05:12 PM (#5602068)
I wonder if there might be a lull in HOF ballot-reveals until the 17th or so.
Didn't the announcement used to be a couple of weeks earlier than this year?
   1240. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 06, 2018 at 05:15 PM (#5602073)
Didn't the announcement used to be a couple of weeks earlier than this year?


My recollection was that the announcement was usually the equivalent of either last week or this week (first Monday after the New Year or something like that). My recollection is also that there tended to be several mass ballot reveals in the days just before the announcement - Chicago Tribune, ESPN, MLB.com, probably others. So, yeah, I'd guess that some of these group reveals have been similarly pushed back. Thibs' spreadsheet said there were 245 public ballots revealed before the final results were announced [edit: last year]. So, in theory, there are still 80 or so more ballots to be revealed in the next 2-3 weeks.
   1241. cardsfanboy Posted: January 06, 2018 at 05:20 PM (#5602076)
I always like Hal Trosky in these type of scenarios, sure his peak wasn't as great as Trout's(who's is?) but we are talking about a guy who .313/.379/.551/.930 135 ops+ his first 8 seasons at age 28, then never returned from the war as the same player. Probably one of the better "what if" players out there. Other guys who are routinely brought out in these type of discussions are Tony Oliva who had 38.6 war in his first 7 full seasons,
   1242. Adam Starblind Posted: January 06, 2018 at 05:34 PM (#5602080)
I guess that's a lock.
   1243. cardsfanboy Posted: January 06, 2018 at 05:42 PM (#5602088)
Last year the hof announcement was January 18th...but before that 2016 announcement was on Jan 6th, 2015 was Jan 7th, 2014 was Jan 8th....
   1244. The Duke Posted: January 06, 2018 at 05:52 PM (#5602098)
Us postal service ain’t what it used to be. Takes about 10 days for ballots to get to Cooperstown now.
   1245. The Duke Posted: January 06, 2018 at 05:55 PM (#5602099)
Trout is as close to a lock after six seasons as one could be. Still, anything could happen so it’s not a sure thing. He still has to get 10 years in to qualify. He could go all Andrew jones on us
   1246. Ziggy's screen name Posted: January 06, 2018 at 06:02 PM (#5602107)
The conversation above is about him going all Andruw Jones on us, and it sure seems like Trout is in even if that happens. To take one name mentioned above, it's not war credit that made Hank Greenberg a hall of famer. And by bWAR at least Trout has only had one season (least year) which was worse than Greenberg's best.
   1247. Ziggy's screen name Posted: January 06, 2018 at 06:05 PM (#5602111)
And while we're talking Trout, ZiPS is projecting him for a 1.000 OPS next year, a figure which he's only cleared once. He's young enough that the aging curve is still working in his favor (how's that for craziness), and it is apparently strong enough to overcome the pull of regression. (Although I'll admit that I don't know how much you regress a six year veteran.)
   1248. Srul Itza Posted: January 06, 2018 at 06:13 PM (#5602118)
The Angels have only been in existence for 57 years, but it is still notable that after only six full seasons, Trout is the franchise leader in WAR.
   1249. TomH Posted: January 06, 2018 at 06:18 PM (#5602123)
nice 1248
   1250. Ithaca2323 Posted: January 06, 2018 at 11:55 PM (#5602270)
And while we're talking Trout, ZiPS is projecting him for a 1.000 OPS next year, a figure which he's only cleared once.


But he's also has a pair of .991 figures. in 2015 and 2016. It's not a leap at all to get to 1.000 from there
   1251. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 07, 2018 at 12:13 AM (#5602272)
It appears that Ryan added one ballot today, by Mark Purdy. Purdy voted for Vlad, Trevor Hoffman, Omar Vizquel, ..., and NOBODY ELSE!
   1252. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 07, 2018 at 12:40 AM (#5602281)
That's a Purdy bad ballot. Some people just crave the attention. "Look at my ballot !! Isn't it bad? Hate me, hate me!!"
   1253. John Northey Posted: January 07, 2018 at 03:02 AM (#5602292)
Does Purdy watch baseball at all? To put Vlad, Hoffman, and Vizquel but not Chipper Jones on your ballot you must not be a baseball fan.
   1254. John Northey Posted: January 07, 2018 at 03:11 AM (#5602293)
Gotta say I like the first time voters percentages so far...
9 of 9 - 100%: Clemens, Vlad, Chipper, Thome
75%+: Bonds, Hoffman, Edgar, Mussina, Schilling
5%+: Andruw, McGriff, Manny, Rolen, Santana, Sheffield, Sosa, Vizquel (1 vote), Wagner, Walker

So 9 voted in, 10 more kept around for next year if it was all up to the rookie voters so far. Will be interesting to see the final results.
   1255. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: January 07, 2018 at 04:47 AM (#5602296)
Does Purdy watch baseball at all? To put Vlad, Hoffman, and Vizquel but not Chipper Jones on your ballot you must not be a baseball fan.
Re: Purdy, I was curious, so I checked his twitter feed. His "explanation" -- and I'm not making this up -- is that he's a small-HOF-ballot guy. Not a small-HOF guy, but a small-HOF-ballot guy. Even though he says elsewhere that he's a small HOF guy, that's not actually why he's not voting for more people. He's not saying that more players on the ballot aren't legitimate HOFers; in fact, he admits that they are. He just doesn't think he should vote for them all at once.

(He also does not grasp the HOF's voting design, since he says, "I am not voting against [PED guys]. Just abstaining at this time," not comprehending that "abstaining" as he uses the term = "voting against." (I mean, I think what he's trying to say is that he doesn't oppose their induction; he's just not voting for them this year. But turning in a ballot without a person's name on it is voting against him.))

He has his own personal "voting categories," and he generally only votes for one from each category. Vlad got the "great hitter" vote this year, so therefore he could not vote for Chipper. INMTU.
   1256. QLE Posted: January 07, 2018 at 04:49 AM (#5602297)
#1251- By my count, we've had nine ballots so far this year that are worse than that of Murray Chass- I'm wondering if we should be alarmed.....
   1257. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 07, 2018 at 05:54 AM (#5602302)
I remember one writer once explained that he never votes for ten players because the stage would be too crowded if ten players were on it.
   1258. bachslunch Posted: January 07, 2018 at 07:03 AM (#5602304)
Purdy’s ballot and thinking is wretched, agreed.

It looks like he retired from The Mercury just last year. So in theory, he’ll lose his ballot at some point. Is it 5 years? Can’t be soon enough.

   1259. Hysterical & Useless Posted: January 07, 2018 at 08:03 AM (#5602306)
Good lord, to put Trevor Hoffman and Omar Vizquel on a ballot is bad enough, but then to not vote for Larry F Jones should be completely and totally disqualifying. I sure as shooting am no expert, but if you don't recognize that the man from Hootersville has to be on your ballot, you should just admit to the BBWAA that you know nothing whatsoever about this thing called "base ball."
   1260. Lassus Posted: January 07, 2018 at 09:00 AM (#5602307)
Disclosure, I love Vizquel, I loved watching him field and actually aesthetically preferred him to Ozzie. I have no problem with him not being a HOFer at all.

I wonder, however, if on this site he even qualifies for the constant yet more amorphous HOVG?
   1261. The Duke Posted: January 07, 2018 at 09:07 AM (#5602309)
There appear to be four returning voters who didn’t vote in 2017 and none of them chose bonds/Clemens so that forces them to pick up a lot of votes just to stay even. Makes me appreciate how hard it is to get to 75%
   1262. bachslunch Posted: January 07, 2018 at 09:35 AM (#5602317)
@1260: re Vizquel and the Hall of Merit — not quite what you asked, but he didn’t get a single vote, and those who commented on him suggest they’re unlikely to ever consider him. SS who did appear on a ballot or got some kind of positive mention not in included Rizzuto, Stephens, Fletcher, Aparicio, Tinker, Bancroft, Garciaparra, Concepcion, Campaneris, and Fregosi. And Miguel Tejada will be eligible next year, if memory serves. Fine by me — he’s behind most all these folks on my ballot options.
   1263. PreservedFish Posted: January 07, 2018 at 09:36 AM (#5602319)
I wonder, however, if on this site he even qualifies for the constant yet more amorphous HOVG?


Sure. My personal HOVG has more room for Vizquel types (that were really good and memorable but never showed an ounce of HOF ability) than for the Nomars or Tejadas that could have been HOFers had things gone otherwise.
   1264. bachslunch Posted: January 07, 2018 at 09:41 AM (#5602320)
@1256: I’m not especially alarmed. Those folks for the most part voted badly last year and likely have done so for years. What I’m happy to see is that the first time voters have been at the very least capable if a bit eccentric and generally excellent. It may take a while for them to outnumber the bozos, but between the good new voters and the culling of the bad, it will hopefully happen.
   1265. bachslunch Posted: January 07, 2018 at 09:52 AM (#5602321)
With nearly 40% of the ballots now in, the projection is that McGriff and Sosa will reach the necessary 5% to stay on. Thibs tracker suggests several other borderline folks are close and likely to make it: Rolen and Kent need 4 votes, Wagner 5, and Sheffield 6. Andruw is a lot more iffy, needing 13, while it’s not looking great for Santana (19) and Damon (20).
   1266. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: January 07, 2018 at 09:59 AM (#5602323)
Were it not for the monumental idiocy of voters like Purdy, we would spend even more time calling each other morons over things like leverage and catcher's defense and DH penalties. We do more than enough of that as it is, so these guys do serve a somewhat useful purpose.

I love Vizquel, I loved watching him field and actually aesthetically preferred him to Ozzie.


Vizquel was a truly beautiful defensive SS. He just wasn't nearly as effective a defender as the aesthetics would lead us to believe.
   1267. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: January 07, 2018 at 11:15 AM (#5602332)
My personal HOVG has more room for Vizquel types (that were really good and memorable but never showed an ounce of HOF ability) than for the Nomars or Tejadas that could have been HOFers had things gone otherwise.

I would lean toward including both of those types in the HOVG, but maybe I'm just a big-HOVG type.
   1268. Baldrick Posted: January 07, 2018 at 12:26 PM (#5602350)
For me, Vizquel is in the HONPWLPC. That's the Hall of Nice Players With Long and Productive Careers.

As a Mariners fan who hit peak baseball-appreciation-age in the early 90s, Vizquel will always be 'my' shortstop, and I genuinely loved that he had such a long and impressive career. Nothing like a HOFer, but a great player to watch. I will certainly be less angry about his eventual HOF induction than I was about, say, Jack Morris, not because he's really any more deserving on the merits, but simply because I always personally enjoyed watching him play.
   1269. The Duke Posted: January 07, 2018 at 01:15 PM (#5602366)
The stats must be missing something with Vizquel. Stats would argue he shouldn’t really get any votes. Yet he is getting votes from he most sabr-inclined voting group (the public group), which suggests he will do even better with private group. So it must be:

1. 2877 hits even over a long period mean a lot more than we think
2. His defense is perceived to be much better than stats would have you believe

Or

Other ideas? Longevity ? If so, Moyer would get more love.
   1270. TomH Posted: January 07, 2018 at 01:25 PM (#5602371)
1269: it depends on which stats you use.

3000 hits in 11100 AB will get you the longevity vote with your meager .270 AVG
2500 hits in- 8800 AB will get you ---nothing-------- with your *good* .285 AVG
2000 hits in- 6500 AB will get you the peak/prme vote with your great .308 AVG

Even though the player in the middle eqwuals half the top & bottom added.

Vizquel holds some longevity records, which Moyer does not, so Omar gets some luv.

It's like people who put Koufax and Nolan Ryan as two of the greatest pitchers ever, but when you average their stats... someone look up the best comp to a guy who has a career record of 245-190, 3.00 ERA, 4000Ks and some no hitters plus 2 Cy Youngs (avg of Sandy and the Express)
   1271. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: January 07, 2018 at 01:34 PM (#5602375)
Yet he is getting votes from he most sabr-inclined voting group (the public group), which suggests he will do even better with private group.


I believe that the overwhelming majority of Vizquel's support comes from people who overrate his defense, thinking that he was nearly the equal of Ozzie (or in some cases, even better). If that judgment was correct, then he would deserve to be elected. But the fact that a larger number of SABR-inclined voters make their ballots public does not mean that Vizquel is getting his votes from the most SABR-inclined voters. Voters like Rick Telander and Mark Purdy are certainly not my idea of SABR-inclined. Vizquel has 49 votes to date; a quick scan of the spreadsheet did not lead me to gasp "My God, HE voted for Omar?!?!?" Perhaps someone with more insight into the electorate than I have can tell me who I might be missing in that regard.
   1272. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: January 07, 2018 at 01:42 PM (#5602376)
look up the best comp to a guy who has a career record of 245-190, 3.00 ERA, 4000Ks and some no hitters plus 2 Cy Youngs (avg of Sandy and the Express)


That's Bob Gibson with an extra thousand strikeouts. Or maybe Steve Carlton with 100 fewer decisions. IOW, that's a pretty hard guy to find given that only four pitchers have ever struck out 4000 batters.
   1273. DavidFoss Posted: January 07, 2018 at 02:31 PM (#5602394)
I believe that the overwhelming majority of Vizquel's support comes from people who overrate his defense


The bulk of his career comes in the peak of the SportsCenter/BaseballTonight era which put a premium on acrobatic fielding plays. With on-demand highlights posted in real time now, I can't be bothered to sit through a 30-60 minute nightly highlight show now.

Vizquel's fielding numbers are a bit odd. He's got Ozzie-caliber numbers in Seattle 1989-1993 and also some other years 98-99,03 and he had surprisingly good years at the end 06-09. But his numbers look very average during 94-98 and 04-05 and downright mediocre from 00-02.

Are there narratives behind the mid-career dips or is that just typical fielding data noise? Was he nursing chronic injuries in the early 00s? Did 90s Indians pitcher or parks suppress his metrics? Just curious.
   1274. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 07, 2018 at 02:52 PM (#5602405)
Vizquel is also a genuinely nice guy who was well liked by both teammates and media. At the margin, that might matter (although I'd argue that he's so far from borderline that it shouldn't).
   1275. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 07, 2018 at 04:41 PM (#5602446)
Except by Jose Mesa.
   1276. Booey Posted: January 07, 2018 at 05:10 PM (#5602458)
I tend to think Omar is getting extra support because people are overrating his offense due to his high hit total. People always overrated his defense, so that's nothing new. But in his prime he was always a great glove, no bat type of player. But now that he lasted long enough to rank up almost 3000 hits (with a just slightly above league average BA), voters are seeing him as a great glove, good enough offense type of player. Which isn't really accurate; his hitting was always the big blow to his candidacy. Simply lasting forever shouldn't change that.
   1277. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: January 07, 2018 at 05:30 PM (#5602463)
Mark Purdy. Purdy voted for Vlad, Trevor Hoffman, Omar Vizquel, ..., and NOBODY ELSE!


Well there ain't nothin' purdy about that!

And I can't believe that no one sunk to this level of humour...BTW I am available for all weddings, parties, anything. Thank you, thank you very much.
   1278. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 07, 2018 at 05:47 PM (#5602469)
And I can't believe that no one sunk to this level of humour...

You give yourself too much credit. See #1252.
   1279. EddieA Posted: January 07, 2018 at 06:32 PM (#5602474)
The defensive games leader list:
c- Ivan Rodriguez
1b- Eddie Murray
2b- Eddie Collins
3b- Brooks Robinson
ss- Vizquel
lf- Bonds
cf- Mays
rf- Clemente
of- Cobb

is a pretty good list to be on. Vizquel has to pick up some votes just from being on the list - there's something to if you played the position more often than anybody else you were a special player. That would be true even if Finley had surpassed Mays - which also probably would have meant Finley would have been a bit better player than he was. Beltre may pass Brooks but he's got to be a no doubter already.
   1280. Omineca Greg Posted: January 07, 2018 at 06:32 PM (#5602475)
Wooooh hey hey
Your Purdy face is going to hell
Your Purdy face is going to hell
Honey honey I can tell
Your Purdy face is going to HELL!!!!
HELL!!!


####.

I got here too late! Will it help if I throw in a...

There's no point in asking, you'll get no reply
Oh just remember I don't decide
I got no reason it's all too much
You'll always find us out to lunch

Oh we're so Purdy
Oh so Purdy
We're vacant
Oh we're so Purdy
Oh so Purdy
Vacant
   1281. The Duke Posted: January 07, 2018 at 07:43 PM (#5602490)
1279 - that is a good list and is another reason for his votes perhaps
   1282. kwarren Posted: January 07, 2018 at 08:08 PM (#5602498)
I have a hard time accepting the huge gap between Sandy Koufax and Johan Santana as far their treatment by the voters.

Postseason. The difference is huge, and it's important.

So Koufax is basically Santana with a great post-season record. That the difference in the support they have received is based of post season credit. I think that simply being a Dodger was a thing back then, his gaudy Dodger Stadium aided ERA, the no-hitters, awesome peak, retiring at his peak to avoid his decline phase, all worked together to build this "Koufax mystique".

Interesting comparison: Koufax ERA+ 131, Kershaw 161, Santana 136.

Koufax was universally seen as the best pitcher in baseball for his five-year peak. Santana was seen as in the discussion for five. When it comes to the Hall, there's a huge difference between being unquestionably the best and part of the conversation.

I don't think the public perception was particularly accurate in either case.
   1283. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: January 07, 2018 at 08:33 PM (#5602502)
#1241:
I always like Hal Trosky in these type of scenarios, sure his peak wasn't as great as Trout's(who's is?) but we are talking about a guy who .313/.379/.551/.930 135 ops+ his first 8 seasons at age 28, then never returned from the war as the same player. Probably one of the better "what if" players out there.
Trosky didn't go to war. In 1941 he had very bad migraines and missed a lot of time with them (and also missed a lot of time with a broken thumb), and then quit and went home to his farm in Iowa. He tried to join up during the war but was declared 4F due to the migraines. He then tried a couple of comebacks, but wasn't really able to make it. The dates on his BBRef totals make him look like a guy who served and got injured or something, but that's just coincidence.
   1284. Booey Posted: January 07, 2018 at 08:58 PM (#5602509)
So Koufax is basically Santana with a great post-season record. That the difference in the support they have received is based of post season credit.


The difference is that Koufax was considered far and away the best pitcher in the game during his peak (some would say of all time). The postseason was part of why people (incorrectly) thought - and some still think - that.
   1285. BDC Posted: January 07, 2018 at 09:33 PM (#5602515)
The defensive games leader list … is a pretty good list to be on

Yes; although for defense-first positions it's not necessarily a measure of greatness. Vizquel took the SS lead from Aparicio, and Rabbit Maranville had held it for a long time earlier on: both HOFers, but neither is in the Hall of Merit (as I assume Vizquel will never be). And at catcher, though the Pudges were both great players, the previous leaders had been Bob Boone and Al Lopez. And early in Brooks Robinson's career, the leader in 3B games was Eddie Yost.
   1286. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: January 07, 2018 at 10:30 PM (#5602524)
So Koufax is basically Santana with a great post-season record.


No not really. (4) 300K seasons, 20 or more complete games 3 times. A WHIP below .9 twice, 41 shutouts. Koufax peak is arguably in the top 5-7 of all time peaks for a pitcher, Santana just doesn't have that. Being considered the best for a period when you play is a huge boost. It's what is going to push Halladay in so easily.
   1287. Howie Menckel Posted: January 07, 2018 at 10:44 PM (#5602528)
So Koufax is basically Santana with a great post-season record.

said no one ever - well, until now
   1288. shoewizard Posted: January 08, 2018 at 12:17 AM (#5602543)
Koufax peak is arguably in the top 5-7 of all time peaks for a pitcher,


If you define peak narrowly, specifically best consecutive 4 seasons, then that holds up, if you take out the guys from before 1920. When you stretch peak out to 5,6 or 7 consecutive seasons, he starts to fall outside the top 5-7. And if you don't require consecutive, and just go by best 4 , I don't think he is in the top 5 either.

So to each his own when defining "peak". Those are VERY movable goal posts.
   1289. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 08, 2018 at 12:33 AM (#5602546)
While a fine pitcher in his own right, Don Drysdale was firmly behind Sandy Koufax is almost every metric. It is very, very sad that he passed
away at such a young age. However, he was able to accomplish something that Mr. Koufax never did. He appeared on an episode of the classic
TV show, "Leave It to Beaver". I haven't seen that episode in decades, but I will always remember it.
   1290. baxter Posted: January 08, 2018 at 12:49 AM (#5602550)
I think Drysdale also appeared in "Soldier in Rain" (as an MP) w/the Great One & McQueen.

Koufax' former father in law was Tommy Udo.
   1291. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: January 08, 2018 at 01:58 AM (#5602555)
However, he was able to accomplish something that Mr. Koufax never did. He appeared on an episode of the classic TV show, "Leave It to Beaver".
Pshaw. That's nothing; Drysdale was on the Brady Bunch.
   1292. baxter Posted: January 08, 2018 at 02:01 AM (#5602556)
Sorry looking up it may be "The Last Time I Saw Archie" a lowpoint for Robert Mitchum and Jack Webb
   1293. Lassus Posted: January 08, 2018 at 04:09 AM (#5602559)
Are there narratives behind the mid-career dips or is that just typical fielding data noise?

Fielding data comes up with a lot of noise, it seems. I wonder if offensive data that did so would be taken as similar gospel.
   1294. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: January 08, 2018 at 05:55 AM (#5602565)
#1289:
While a fine pitcher in his own right, Don Drysdale was firmly behind Sandy Koufax is almost every metric. It is very, very sad that he passed
away at such a young age. However, he was able to accomplish something that Mr. Koufax never did. He appeared on an episode of the classic
TV show, "Leave It to Beaver". I haven't seen that episode in decades, but I will always remember it.



Pshaw. Did Don Drysdale give up an inside-the-park home run to a horse? Was he an integral contributor to one of the three greatest moments in the history of television (along with the moon landing, and Soy Bomb)? I think not.
   1295. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 08, 2018 at 06:51 AM (#5602569)
(1294) "Leo Durocher Meets Mr. Ed"
1. It's funny how Wilbur pronounces it "homeSTAND".
2. Why would Leo say "clowning around" when he could have said "horsing around"?
3. In addition to the players with speaking roles (Roseboro #8, Willie Davis #3, Skowron #14),
I see Ron Fairly (#6) and Dick Nen (#5, Rob's dad).
4. At the :16 second mark, I can't tell who the player to the right of Roseboro is. His uniform number starts
with a "4", and then it kinda looks like a "2", but I didn't see a 42 on the 1963 Dodgers roster. I thought
it might be Dick Tracewski, but he's #44.
5. I don't think Mr. Ed hit that ball. A real baseball-playing horse probably filled in.
6. I would put the "Heidi" AFL game in the greatest moments of television history also.
   1296. Adam Starblind Posted: January 08, 2018 at 06:58 AM (#5602570)
While a fine pitcher in his own right, Don Drysdale was firmly behind Sandy Koufax is almost every metric. It is very, very sad that he passed
away at such a young age. However, he was able to accomplish something that Mr. Koufax never did. He appeared on an episode of the classic
TV show, "Leave It to Beaver". I haven't seen that episode in decades, but I will always remember it.


I think he struck out Dennis the Menace tho.
   1297. TJ Posted: January 08, 2018 at 09:06 AM (#5602580)
5. I don't think Mr. Ed hit that ball. A real baseball-playing horse probably filled in.


A-Rod's grandfather, perhaps?
   1298. Rally Posted: January 08, 2018 at 09:07 AM (#5602581)
5. I don't think Mr. Ed hit that ball. A real baseball-playing horse probably filled in.


Who could it have been? That was filmed 12 years before A-Rod was born.

edit: Beat me to it. Have a coke.
   1299. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: January 08, 2018 at 09:46 AM (#5602585)
Koufax gave up 20 other home runs to Phillies.
   1300. bachslunch Posted: January 08, 2018 at 09:54 AM (#5602589)
Flip, Wilbur.
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