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Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Ryan Thibs has his HOF Ballot Tracker Up and Running!

Ryan has received his first official ballot, courtesy of Adam Rubib. Ten votes, including Vizquel.

So who gets a higher percentage of vote this year, Trammell with the VC or Vizquel with the BBWAA? (Only partly a tongue-in-cheek question…)

TJ Posted: November 22, 2017 at 02:48 PM | 1774 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame

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   1501. cardsfanboy Posted: January 18, 2018 at 09:33 PM (#5609219)
flip
   1502. cardsfanboy Posted: January 18, 2018 at 09:35 PM (#5609223)
Buster Posey got his leg broken, and now you can't plow over the catcher any more. (I honestly have no idea if this counts.)


I doubt it, being a victim is not quite the same thing as creating a situation to force a rule change.
   1503. cardsfanboy Posted: January 18, 2018 at 09:37 PM (#5609226)
Chase Utley, obviously.


Yes, although it could be argued that he was a catalyst more than a rules challenger.
   1504. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 18, 2018 at 09:38 PM (#5609229)
Will Jason Giambi and his 440 HR get a vote with the steroids?


I'll be surprised if Giambi gets literally zero votes. He won an MVP, was actually pretty well-regarded by the media in spite of the steroids. He's not going to get elected - and likely wouldn't have with or without the steroids - but I think he's got a decent chance of making a second ballot.
   1505. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 18, 2018 at 09:52 PM (#5609242)
I was looking for the most Home Runs hit by a player who received zero HOF votes.

That may just reflect how much ballot space was available for courtesy votes.
   1506. cardsfanboy Posted: January 18, 2018 at 10:01 PM (#5609250)
So, that leaves five players that could come up with a goose egg.....Will Jason Giambi and his 440 HR get a vote with the steroids?


Yes.

I'm not sure.....How about Alfonso Soriano? He only accumulated 27.4 WAR with his 412 HR, but his 289 SB might help.....


Very iffy.

Ryan Howard? 382 HR, but only 14.9 WAR. Maybe a Philly writer gives him a shout-out.....Aramis Ramirez? 386 HR with 32.2 WAR, maybe
because he was a 3B....But I think the champ for a long, long time will be Mr. Adam Dunn with 462 HR and 16.9 WAR.....Maybe I'm
wrong, maybe a Reds writer will vote for him?.....I'm not saying he had a bad career, just saying he might not get a HOF vote.


With the backlog being eliminated more or less, I'm thinking everyone else on your list gets at least one vote. I'm pretty positive that Howard, and Dunn will get votes, and Aramis should get a vote.
   1507. #6bid Posted: January 18, 2018 at 10:11 PM (#5609257)
Ryan Howard? 382 HR, but only 14.9 WAR.


Ryan Howard was paid $180 million dollars in his career. For 15 WAR.
   1508. The Duke Posted: January 18, 2018 at 10:15 PM (#5609261)
There was a point in time where you could see a path for Dunn to make the Hall
   1509. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 18, 2018 at 10:16 PM (#5609262)
Ryan Howard was paid $180 million dollars [sic - BB-Ref says $190.255m] in his career. For 15 WAR.


Or, to be more precise, through 2011, Ryan Howard had been paid $65 million for 19.4 WAR. He was then paid an additional $125 million for -4.5 WAR - on a contract that I'm pretty sure he signed a full year before it actually kicked in.
   1510. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 18, 2018 at 10:20 PM (#5609265)
There was a point in time where you could see a path for Dunn to make the Hall


Yeah, he was kind of a poor man's Jim Thome. That said, I could see him getting zero votes. I'm not sure what the profile would be of the writer who would throw a courtesy vote to Adam Dunn. Then again, Aaron Sele got a Hall-of-Fame vote, so who the heck knows?
   1511. The Duke Posted: January 18, 2018 at 10:22 PM (#5609267)
Isn’t pujols extension going to be much worse than Howard’s? He’s going to crank out negative WAR for several years
   1512. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 18, 2018 at 10:39 PM (#5609284)
#1488: The ghost of Satchel Paige begs to differ about the word “undisputed.”
   1513. John Northey Posted: January 18, 2018 at 10:55 PM (#5609294)
That Howard deal was ugly when signed and got uglier as time went by. A big reason for not signing a guy a year earlier than you need to, let alone 2 years early.

Pujols has 12.9 WAR for LAA so far on that insane deal with 4 years to go. I expect a dead cat bounce year somewhere where he get positive WAR and the Angels try to do a Vernon Wells on someone but no GM that dumb is still hanging around I think. Last year was his first negative WAR year ever and I expect most of his remaining will be too but he at least did provide value on this deal (not enough but some) vs Howard being below replacement 4 of his 5 years on that contract, with the one above barely being above (0.6). The year he signed he had a 1.2 WAR season followed by another before that contract kicked in. For comparison Pujols' negative WAR last year was the first time he was lower than 1.4 in any season.
   1514. cardsfanboy Posted: January 18, 2018 at 11:03 PM (#5609298)
That said, I could see him getting zero votes.


The only reason I think he might get a vote, is that I think there is probably one guy out there in the bbwaa who wants to make a point about the silliness of the Morris vote or to show a nod to the stat vote. I don't think the person who would vote for Dunn is a serious writer, but a stat guy who has earned his stripes and want to thumb his nose at the establishment.
   1515. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 18, 2018 at 11:10 PM (#5609301)
I think there is probably one guy out there in the bbwaa who wants to make a point about the silliness of the Morris vote or to show a nod to the stat vote. I don't think the person who would vote for Dunn is a serious writer, but a stat guy who has earned his stripes and want to thumb his nose at the establishment.


Let me preface this by saying that I am extremely skeptical of Dunn's fielding ratings (I don't really believe it's possible for a major-league player to be 43 runs worse than an average fielder in a single season). But with that said, Adam Dunn isn't exactly a "stat" friendly HOF candidate. He has 16.9 career bWAR - he has four seasons where he hit 40 home runs but has negative WAA. Dunn's career bWAR is less than the aforementioned Aaron Sele (20.6 WAR).
   1516. SoSH U at work Posted: January 18, 2018 at 11:53 PM (#5609313)
Keith Hernandez where they had to change the rules that only the catcher is allowed to be in foul territory,


Hernandez didn't force the rule change - he forced the umpires to enforce it. The rule already existed.
   1517. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 19, 2018 at 12:14 AM (#5609316)
(1509)
MLB Trade Rumours at the time wrote that the length of the contract made it an unnecessary risk, and that the team
didn't get a discount for extending two years before free agency. Almost everybody in the baseball
world thought this was a terrible deal for the Phillies (except the GM).
   1518. #6bid Posted: January 19, 2018 at 12:20 AM (#5609319)
Ryan Howard was paid $180 million dollars [sic - BB-Ref says $190.255m]


My mistake, I looked at "Player Value -- Batting" which did not show the $10 million buyout.

I guess if we wanted to be kind we could give him postseason credit (199 plate appearances, an .845 OPS, not sure how to turn that into WAR but it's probably ... 1? 1.5?)
   1519. Howie Menckel Posted: January 19, 2018 at 12:20 AM (#5609320)
good time to recommend that the young'uns look up classic videos of Hernandez charging at the batter from his 1B spot on a bunt attempt like a praying mantis. the poor bastards who tried to go from second to third never had a chance.....
   1520. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 19, 2018 at 12:39 AM (#5609324)
(1513) The Yankees ended up eating the final year of A-Rod's contract.....I don't think an injury was involved.
Will the Angels end up eating the final TWO years of a healthy-Pujols' contract?.....Would this be the first example of this?
I believe Josh Hamilton's situation was injury-related.....Would Pujols retire at some point? Gil Meche is the only player
I ever remember retiring and leaving money on the table ($12 million).
   1521. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 19, 2018 at 01:16 AM (#5609326)
(1513) The Brewers signed Ryan Braun to an extension FIVE years before his first extension was up, before the 2011 season.
Ryan proposed it, and I think they were happy to have a player want to stay (after Fielder was obviously leaving).
The final 5 years of his 2009-2015 team-friendly extension featured fantastic 2011/2012 seasons, his 2013 suspension,
his bad-thumb 2014, and a solid 2015.....So, even if the Brewers would have just waited to talk extension until TWO years
before his first extension was up, the timing would have worked out great for them. The Brewers would have probably
just waited for the contract to expire after 2015, and then maybe offered him a 3-year deal. Or, maybe the thumb thing
would have scared them off entirely. The first season of his new extension was solid, but 2017 was all about nagging
injuries. He should probably be a DH at this stage of his career, but the only team he would approve a trade to is LAD,
and that ship has sailed. Who knows how the next three years will treat Mr. Braun.
   1522. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 19, 2018 at 01:28 AM (#5609327)

Gil Meche is the only player I ever remember retiring and leaving money on the table ($12 million).

Michael Cuddyer did the same thing after the 2015 season, retiring before the last year of his contract ($12.5 million). Ryan Dempster did something similar in 2014.
   1523. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 19, 2018 at 01:48 AM (#5609328)
I still can't believe that Albert Pujols would leave St.Louis just for two or three extra million a year.
Being a one-team HOFer like Ripken, Gwynn, Yount, Brett, and the rest HAS to be worth more than that.
I remember his wife said that God told them to sign with the Angels, but I wonder if Albert has regrets.
   1524. QLE Posted: January 19, 2018 at 04:30 AM (#5609333)
#1515- Quite- to a heavy degree, Adam Dunn is basically Dave Kingman with more walks, and I suspect the sort of folk who'd vote for him are the same sort who'd back Kingman (who received three votes the one time he was on the ballot). That said, I still can see him getting a few votes, especially from the private ballot folk.

As for a couple of the others named in #1500:

Jason Giambi had a few great years and not much else. There are many the candidate who fell off the ballot with little support with that profile (hello there, Johnny Callison)- but it also describes both Jim Rice and Dave Parker. There's no way he'd do as well as Rice ultimately did and I doubt he'd perform as well as Parker, but it does demonstrate that saying he'll get absolutely no support is not likely at this point.

As for Ryan Howard: Given how much the BBWAA overrated him in MVP voting, I wouldn't be surprised if there's a couple of people who'd throw votes his way he didn't deserve, especially given how the ballot should largely be unclogged by 2022. Given that sixteen people thought Sandy Alomar Jr. was fit just five years ago (and I doubt they've all been purged), a couple of vote for Howard doesn't seem impossible.

Overall, though, it should be noted that any predictions involving this matter is deeply speculative, as quite a bit of this depends on how the BBWAA behaves once they don't have the glut pressures they've had the last few years- those pressures (and the purge) removed a lot of the quirkier votes, and I have no idea if they'll return once they're gone.
   1525. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 19, 2018 at 08:21 AM (#5609342)
I've said this before, but it looks like Curt Schilling will have the stage all to himself in 2021, which would be great.
However, I could also see **2019**= {Rivera / Edgar / Mussina} + **2020**= {Jeter / Halladay / Schilling} + **2021**= {goose egg}.

   1526. Rally Posted: January 19, 2018 at 09:46 AM (#5609381)
(1513) The Yankees ended up eating the final year of A-Rod's contract.....I don't think an injury was involved.
Will the Angels end up eating the final TWO years of a healthy-Pujols' contract?.....Would this be the first example of this?
I believe Josh Hamilton's situation was injury-related.....Would Pujols retire at some point? Gil Meche is the only player
I ever remember retiring and leaving money on the table ($12 million).


They ate the last 1.5 years of A-Rod's deal. Angels have plenty of experience in eating bad contracts. They ate the last 2 years of Gary Matthews Jr., the last 2 of Vernon Wells, and the last 3 of Hamilton. All of these involved trades with the Angels paying 90% or more and the receiving teams paying a token amount.

It won't be a trade with Pujols, but if they let him play 2018 just to see if he has a dead cat bounce, and then release him it will be the same outcome as Hamilton. My prediction for how it plays out is that it will be a described as a retirement for medical reasons - his feet cannot support him well enough to play baseball anymore. I expect Pujols will get every penny the contract calls for, and I don't expect the Angels will collect any insurance money. But that's how it will play out so everybody can save face, and they don't have to just say he's being released.

Towards the end of last year the Astros played Correa and Altuve about 30 feet into the outfield grass. Even from that extreme distance, Pujols could not beat out a ground ball for a hit. As long as that is the case, there is no reason that any team should not play him this way. He's not going to gain infield hits because he can't run at all, and now he won't be able to get any bloop hits either. If that's the best Pujols can do, then saying he's medically unfit to play baseball is the hard cold truth.

Even after last year, Pujols has provided some value, 13 WAR, to the Angels. That's 17.5 more than Howard provided for his extension. Pujols' contract is 115 million more than Howard's. That's 6.6 million per win. At this point if you release Pujols his contract is slightly better than Howard's, but the more Pujols plays and puts up negative WAR the worse it gets.

If you had the foresight to release a player before he went negative, but not the foresight to avoid offering the deal in the first place Howard would have been released as soon as his Achilles went on the last out of the 2011 NLDS. They would pay 125 million for nothing. Angels would play Albert for 5 years, up to 2016 and get 15 WAR. Then they pay for another 5 years and get nothing for it. That looks about even to me.
   1527. John DiFool2 Posted: January 19, 2018 at 10:57 AM (#5609419)
Maybe if the scenario in 1525 comes to pass, that 2021 will be the year that Clemens and Bonds get full re-evaluations/reckonings. There really wouldn't be any other candidates to discuss...
   1528. Booey Posted: January 19, 2018 at 11:07 AM (#5609427)
Jason Giambi had a few great years and not much else.

I think that's selling him a bit short. Giambi had a full 10 year span (1997-2006) where he put up a 155 OPS+ (.293/.421/.553 with an average of 32 homers and 104 rbi), and that's including his awful 2004 when he hit .208 with a .379 slg in 80 games. His best 5 year stretch (1999-2003) saw him hit .311/.444/.596 (171 OPS+) with an average of 39 homers, 122 rbi, and 122 walks.

He's not a HOFer, of course, but he was basically Frank Thomas at his peak. He'll get a few votes from peak voters that don't care about steroids (and for a PED guy, he actually seems to be fairly well respected).
   1529. bachslunch Posted: January 19, 2018 at 11:10 AM (#5609429)
If Bonds and Clemens are ever getting in, it will be in 2021. It will be their last regularly eligible year, and the voters will either decide that they've been punished to the maximum while still being elected or enough voters will stand firm and deny them. I doubt seriously they will ever get in via a Veterans Committee that isn't composed entirely of historians, and that unfortunately will probably happen when a sloth wins the 100 meter dash.
   1530. Srul Itza Posted: January 19, 2018 at 12:42 PM (#5609500)
Will the Angels end up eating the final TWO years of a healthy-Pujols' contract?


As noted above, Pujols can hobble on to the field, but "healthy" is a stretch.
   1531. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 19, 2018 at 01:28 PM (#5609564)
Does he still have plantar fasciitis? Didn't Big Papi retire because of bad feet? And he was still rakin' at 40.
   1532. -- Posted: January 19, 2018 at 01:41 PM (#5609578)
I would nominate the Howard $125M extension as the event generating the widest consensus in the history of BBTF. Virtual unanimity, with a wide cross-section of board participants weighing in.
   1533. Ithaca2323 Posted: January 19, 2018 at 02:23 PM (#5609639)
Jack Morris is good for something, after all!

From Paul Sullivan's column explaining his ballot:

"The last player I check-marked, Mussina, is in his fifth season on the ballot and someone I hadn’t voted for previously, considering him a borderline Hall of Famer who fell just short. But when Jack Morris was elected by the Modern Era committee in December, I changed my mind. Mussina’s numbers (270-153, 3.68 ERA) are better than Morris’ (254-186, 3.90), and if Morris is in, Mussina deserves a spot as well. Check."

By hook or crook, Mussina is going to get there
   1534. Rusty Priske Posted: January 19, 2018 at 02:37 PM (#5609656)
and if Morris is in, Mussina deserves a spot as well. Check."


Mussina deserves to get in, but that is terrible, terrible logic.
   1535. QLE Posted: January 19, 2018 at 02:41 PM (#5609662)
I think that's selling him a bit short. Giambi had a full 10 year span (1997-2006) where he put up a 155 OPS+ (.293/.421/.553 with an average of 32 homers and 104 rbi), and that's including his awful 2004 when he hit .208 with a .379 slg in 80 games. His best 5 year stretch (1999-2003) saw him hit .311/.444/.596 (171 OPS+) with an average of 39 homers, 122 rbi, and 122 walks.


True that that's the total for the span- but said span includes:

1) Two seasons at the start where his OPS+ was at 126 and 130- not bad at all, mind you, but not especially impressive from someone in his position on the defensive spectrum, even before we turn to calculations about his fielding.

2) A season at the end where his OPS+ is at 148- but in which he only played in 139 games, he had a poor season fielding, and where his career trajectory suggests that this wasn't just statistical noise.

As for the five-year peak: Yep, it's great, but the only other season he had at the lower end of that level was 2005.

That said, it should be noted that I actually have him just below my borderline for induction- had he had one more season at his 1999 level, that would have been enough.
   1536. Ithaca2323 Posted: January 19, 2018 at 02:49 PM (#5609674)
Mussina deserves to get in, but that is terrible, terrible logic.


I've gone back and forth on this. I mean, in general, I agree with the idea of not using a mistake to justify a subsequent decision.

But I also think the standards for the Hall are reflected by the players who are elected to it, and as a result, those standards change. I'm not saying we have to identify the worst player at each position and then immediately vote for every player who is even slightly better than that worst player, but I think it's okay to take into consideration the types of players who are in the Hall of Fame when evaluating current options
   1537. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 19, 2018 at 03:03 PM (#5609700)
Will CARLOS BELTRAN receive any love at all from the voters? I don't think he'll ever get elected by the BBWAA,
and I can't really peg what level of support he'll receive.
   1538. SoSH U at work Posted: January 19, 2018 at 03:11 PM (#5609709)
Will CARLOS BELTRAN receive any love at all from the voters? I don't think he'll ever get elected by the BBWAA,
and I can't really peg what level of support he'll receive.


Until the last few years, I would have shared the skepticism. No longer. It might take him until the back half of his eligibility clock, but he'll get elected.
   1539. Booey Posted: January 19, 2018 at 03:21 PM (#5609720)
Will CARLOS BELTRAN receive any love at all from the voters? I don't think he'll ever get elected by the BBWAA, and I can't really peg what level of support he'll receive.


It may take a couple years, but I actually do think he'll get elected by the writers. He's got 70 WAR for the SABR types, and great all around counting stats for the traditionalists; 435 HR, over 1500 runs and rbi, 2700 hits, 300 stolen bases (with a great percentage), ROY, 9 all star appearances, 3 gold gloves, great postseason numbers. He seems like he's got something to offer for all types of voters. Plus the ballot should be a lot more open by the time he hits it.

I've always seen him as a slightly better version of Andre Dawson.

Edit: coke to SoSh. I think passing 400 HR's and 1500 runs/rbi's probably sealed the deal for him. His counting stats are just too high in too many areas to ignore now.
   1540. Moeball Posted: January 19, 2018 at 03:31 PM (#5609733)
Mussina deserves to get in, but that is terrible, terrible logic.


I'm not saying we have to identify the worst player at each position and then immediately vote for every player who is even slightly better than that worst player, but I think it's okay to take into consideration the types of players who are in the Hall of Fame when evaluating current options

The reason it is terrible logic is because this writer just looked at the W-L records and the raw ERAs and saw them as similar with Mussina having a slight advantage. In the real world, Mussina posted a lower ERA despite pitching in a much more hitter-friendly environment, so in terms of context, what Mussina accomplished was far more difficult.

Let's face it - most baseball writers are absolutely horrible at understanding context. You have to beat them over the head with something completely obvious to everyone for them to actually see anything real.

What would have been truly astonishing that most baseball writers would have completely missed would be if there had been a starting pitcher from about 1995-2010 who consistently put up ERAs around 3.5 while pitching the whole time for the Rockies! Most writers would look at that and go "well a 3.50 ERA is decent, but it's nothing really special". Are you kidding? A pitcher that could allow only 3.5 runs a game in Coors field during the crazy scoring years would be an outstanding pitcher. Context matters*.

The ironic part is that when you do club the writers over the head with something that's obvious to everyone - "there are hitter's parks, and then there's Coors Field, which is a whole 'nother universe" - they then overreact too far the other way on the context. The writers completely discount the hitting numbers of anyone that ever put on a Rockies uniform. It's hurting Larry Walker now, and it will probably hurt Todd Helton as well when his time comes. But these guys were actually pretty terrific players, with or without help from Coors Field.

*See Wes Ferrell, the Ferrerll brother NOT in the HOF, but the one who actually was an excellent player.
   1541. Ithaca2323 Posted: January 19, 2018 at 03:40 PM (#5609746)

The reason it is terrible logic is because this writer just looked at the W-L records and the raw ERAs and saw them as similar with Mussina having a slight advantage. In the real world, Mussina posted a lower ERA despite pitching in a much more hitter-friendly environment, so in terms of context, what Mussina accomplished was far more difficult.


I mean, it's also possible this writer looked at a lot of stuff, and only chose to share that part of it, for whatever reason. There are a whole lot of ways Mussina is better than Morris
   1542. Rally Posted: January 19, 2018 at 03:46 PM (#5609752)
Beltran will have a less crowded ballot to deal with. One way or another Bonds and Clemens won't be around when he's on it. There is no chance that Beltran gets skunked like some other recent CF candidates. I say this because Scott Rolen is getting enough support that he'll still be on the ballot next year, and I think Beltran is a more appealing candidate than Rolen.

It's a shame that Lofton and Edmonds are one and done, and while Andruw Jones is a controversial candidate (see this week's Andruw thread) it would be nice if he got more than one year of consideration. Beltran is better than all of them. Dawson is probably a good comp for HOF-voting purposes. Beltran is the best center fielder to debut between Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Trout.
   1543. TomH Posted: January 19, 2018 at 03:59 PM (#5609761)
Beltran also has a case for Best Postseason Player Evah.
   1544. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 19, 2018 at 04:19 PM (#5609777)
(1542) Nyger Morgan begs to differ. Tony Plush, yo.
   1545. Swoboda is freedom Posted: January 19, 2018 at 05:04 PM (#5609809)
There are a whole lot of ways Mussina is better than Morris
Morris was better in a lot of ways too. He pitched that game in the World Series. He had a better moustache. The name Jack is much better than Mike.
   1546. bachslunch Posted: January 19, 2018 at 05:04 PM (#5609810)
@1534: yup, terrible logic. But regardless, Mussina got the guy’s vote, and at this point I’ll take whatever gets results.
   1547. shoewizard Posted: January 19, 2018 at 06:39 PM (#5609867)
Ryan Howard was paid $180 million dollars in his career. For 15 WAR.


Well he wasn't paid for his WAR, rightly or wrongly, he was paid for his HR and RBI.

Forgetting about his awful decline phase, and ridiculous and foreseeable disaster of a contract he was signed to, I have always felt the more fascinating thing about Howard is how a guy that over 4 seasons from 2006-2009 averaged

.278/.379/.589 .967 OPS, 145 OPS+ 50 HR 143 RBI

Yet still was only worth 13.6 WAR, averaging just 3.4 WAR during that period. Even his oWAR was just 15.7 those 4 years, averaging 3.9

The batting line, OPS+ and HR and RBI just seem incongruous with even the oWAR total

I understand all the reasons why and know how to break it down. But it still just doesn't feel right .
   1548. The Duke Posted: January 19, 2018 at 10:40 PM (#5609940)
Why can’t the Hall simply put some people back on the ballot. They’ve done it before. Put lofton and Edmonds and a few others on the ballot if they happen to fall off too quickly

Beltran is a shoe-in. Not sure if it’s 2, or 4 years but he will go in fast. Hard to see why he doesn’t. Played in a lot of places and both leagues so a lot of writers saw him in person. Five tool player in his prime. Good stats across the board and he is known to be one of the nicest players in the game and has done outstanding charitable work. His playoff stats are amazing.

   1549. cardsfanboy Posted: January 19, 2018 at 11:17 PM (#5609951)
Why can’t the Hall simply put some people back on the ballot. They’ve done it before. Put lofton and Edmonds and a few others on the ballot if they happen to fall off too quickly


It can happen, but it won't as long as there are 3-5 people going in every year... The reset of Santo, Boyer and Allen ultimately resulted in no changes, it took another 20+ years for even Santo to make it to the hall.
   1550. John Northey Posted: January 19, 2018 at 11:32 PM (#5609954)
**2019**= {Rivera / Edgar / Mussina} + **2020**= {Jeter / Halladay / Schilling} + **2021**= {goose egg}.

Interesting view. I see 2019 as Rivera/ Edgar / Halladay (clearly better than Mussina outside of longevity), 2020 Mussina / Jeter / Walker (if he stays over 40% this year and cracks 50% pushing 60 in 2019), 2021 Schilling / Bonds / Clemens

The last year bump is very real and if Bonds & Clemens both can crack 60% next year or in 2020 I see them slipping in their final season. I could see Scott Rolen and Jeff Kent starting to climb fast by then too as the backlog clears out. I'm hoping Vizquel is seeing his peak in year one as some other non-HOF'ers have seen (Don Mattingly for example peaked with 28% his first time on the ballot, only cracking 20% in the following season and never again being that high). I doubt Andruw Jones will start climbing or at least not by much. Sosa I'm surprised hasn't started to climb yet given how weak the PED case against him is (far weaker than the one against Bonds).
   1551. Walt Davis Posted: January 20, 2018 at 02:36 AM (#5609978)
The position player Koufax equivalents are Greenberg (due to the war) and Campanella (no the numbers aren't there but 3 MVPs ... and still 31 WAR in 3600 PA at his peak).

#1522: Cuddyer and the Mets did agree on a small buyout (in the range of $2-3 M apparently) ... if memory serves that brought him back to the QO that he could have accepted from the Rox so he didn't "lose" on the deal. Still, yes, he walked away from $10 M.

FWIW, Meche walked away primarily because, under contract, he would have had to continue painful rehab or maybe even face another surgery in an effort to get healthy. I recall the Pirates going through something similar years ago (with Mike Benjamin??) where there was some disagreement as to whether Benjamin "could" play but just didn't want to. I think the Pirates lost that one.

Gossage: I think twice now I've seen somebody refer to Gossage's "peak" as beginning in 1977. This ignores his 1975, possibly the greatest relief season of all time. I believe there are some that get more WAR (somehow) but I looked it up once and every game he appeared in but two, he entered with men on base. In one of the other two, he entered after Kaat gave up a HR. Sure, the Sox then tried him again as a starter in 76 before the Pirates put him back in the pen in 77 so it interrupts his peak, but 1975 is 20% of his career WAR.

#1525: I don't think Mussina is making enough progress this year to have a good chance at 2019. You never know but 2020 for Moose then 2021 for Schilling seems more likely. (There is a huge difference between the revealed ballots and the not-yet-revealed ballots in terms of Mussina support. I'm guessing he'll be low 60s when all is said and done.)

Beltran: He's going in and fairly easily, the ballots look to be very weak in those years. Note, he might get in anyway in the alternate universe of more crowded ballots -- I have a hard time seeing them treating him that much worse than Dawson.

Giambi: Careful, the line between him and Edgar the DH is thinner than you might think. Edgar 32-40: 5487 PA, 321/438/558, 159 OPS+, 46.5 WAR. Giambi 27-35: 5512 PA, 293/427/559, 158 OPS+, 44.6 WAR. The sizable career differences are real of course but they come from Edgar's years as a 3B which bWAR loves -- 22 WAR in about 4 full seasons of PAs. Nobody's voting Edgar because of his 3B years (even if maybe they should be). That sort of peak production is fairly common though -- Berkman got to 44 WAR in 5800 PA, Sheff got to 41 WAR (50 oWAR) in 5600, Goldschmidt is already to 35 WAR in 4000 PA, Tex got to 41 in 5400 PA. A good argument for Vlad is 48 WAR in 5800 and 55 in 7000. Or Edmonds with 52 in 5500 ... he might have still had 40 even as a 1B. Let's not even get started on Votto.

Why can’t the Hall simply put some people back on the ballot. They’ve done it before.

I think they did this in response to pressure not because they felt something was wrong. Whether the pressure came from some writers, current HoFers, historians, whatever. What happened to Santo and Allen was considered an embarrassment. Nobody really seems that worked up about Lofton and Edmonds (or Brown or Palmeiro or ...)
   1552. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 20, 2018 at 04:28 AM (#5609981)
Just a quick musical aside....."The White Album - Pulling the Weeds".....Ob-La-Di, Ob-La-Da / The Continuing Story of Bungalow Bill /
Piggies / Rocky Raccoon / Cry Baby Cry / Revolution 9
   1553. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 20, 2018 at 05:04 AM (#5609982)
(1551) That was just an oversight on my part. I was well aware of Goose's incredible 1975 season, I guess I
just carelessly used his year as starter as a dividing line. 141.2 innings as a reliever is just
amazing !! He had some other impressive innings totals as well. It drives me crazy when I hear how
overworked the Brewers bullpen is when they might have to actually pitch 80 innings.
Also, Trevor Hoffman averaged 55 innings during the second half of his career. It's mostly the manager's
fault, but there was nobody stopping Hoff from volunteering to ocassionally pitch multiple innings or
in non-save situations. Come on, Trevor, take off the bubble wrap, dude !!
   1554. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 20, 2018 at 05:17 AM (#5609984)
One more thing about Gossage. One of his starts was a 2-1 loss at KC in 12 innings. He went the distance and lost on
a 2-out walkoff HR to John Mayberry. Not sure of his pitch count, but it had to be up there. Speaking of long games,
my parents were at the Harvey Haddix game, but had to leave early because they had to work the next day.
Speaking of Haddix, what a joke that he is not "officially" credited with a no-hitter. Hey, record-keepers, why don't
you just change the title at the top of the page to "Pitchers with at least 9 no-hit innings to start the game".
Good grief, what happened to common sense? Even more stupid is Randy Johnson not being credited with a 20-strikeout
game because it was in an extra-inning game - even though he only pitched the first 9 innings for his 20 strikeouts!!!
   1555. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: January 20, 2018 at 07:01 AM (#5609994)
Beltran also has a case for Best Postseason Player Evah.

Maybe not evah, but close. Up through the 2013 NLCS his OPS was 1.173, and while after that he tanked to .531, it still wound up at 1.021. Not quite on the level of Ruth or Gehrig (each with 1.214), but then he played in a lot more postseason games than they did.
   1556. Baldrick Posted: January 20, 2018 at 11:18 AM (#5610018)
Giambi: Careful, the line between him and Edgar the DH is thinner than you might think. Edgar 32-40: 5487 PA, 321/438/558, 159 OPS+, 46.5 WAR. Giambi 27-35: 5512 PA, 293/427/559, 158 OPS+, 44.6 WAR. The sizable career differences are real of course but they come from Edgar's years as a 3B which bWAR loves -- 22 WAR in about 4 full seasons of PAs. Nobody's voting Edgar because of his 3B years (even if maybe they should be).

So the difference is that outside of the time over which they were similar, Giambi did nothing, while Edgar was extremely good.

That sounds like a kind of big difference TBH.
   1557. Booey Posted: January 20, 2018 at 11:50 AM (#5610026)
Even more stupid is Randy Johnson not being credited with a 20-strikeout game because it was in an extra-inning game - even though he only pitched the first 9 innings for his 20 strikeouts!!!

I think he is credited as the co-record holder with Clemens, Wood, and Scherzer.
   1558. John DiFool2 Posted: January 20, 2018 at 12:54 PM (#5610041)
Even more stupid is Randy Johnson not being credited with a 20-strikeout
game because it was in an extra-inning game - even though he only pitched the first 9 innings for his 20 strikeouts!!!


I was at a Red Sox game in 2016 (vs. the Rays in Tampa) where they set a 9 inning team record for strikeouts (w/ 21). Except that oops it went longer than nine, so too bad...
   1559. Baldrick Posted: January 20, 2018 at 01:14 PM (#5610044)
.(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address):
The “most scared place in Baseball”? Really? Imagine your stereotypical nuclear family taking a tour …

“Hey, look, kids, here’s the plaque for Cap Anson! He was a heck of a hitter, and a pretty good manager, too. Oh, and one more thing: He played a crucial role in implementing institutional racism that kept baseball lily-white from the 1880s until Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier in 1947.”

“Now check this out, kids! Ty Cobb. The Georgia Peach. A bat for the ages. Also, he was accused of helping to fix a game in 1919, as well as betting on other games.”

“Here’s a relatively new one: Bud Selig. The best commissioner ever. Well, except for when he did reportedly did nothing upon learning of allegations of serious misconduct by his MLB.com rainmaker Bob Bowman, a charge that Selig hasn’t denied. And back as the Brewers’ owner, Selig helped lead three runs of collusion in which teams worked in unity to denigrate their own product.

“Wow, kids! Isn’t this place sacred?”
   1560. Rennie's Tenet Posted: January 20, 2018 at 01:22 PM (#5610049)
There's been some speculation that the announcement is later this year to try to avoid a conflict with football coverage. I was wondering if maybe they didn't push it back expecting it to be late enough that it wouldn't conflict with the big free agent signings?
   1561. SoSH U at work Posted: January 20, 2018 at 01:28 PM (#5610051)
peaking of Haddix, what a joke that he is not "officially" credited with a no-hitter. Hey, record-keepers, why don't
you just change the title at the top of the page to "Pitchers with at least 9 no-hit innings to start the game".
Good grief, what happened to common sense? Even more stupid is Randy Johnson not being credited with a 20-strikeout
game because it was in an extra-inning game - even though he only pitched the first 9 innings for his 20 strikeouts!!!


I'd say Johnson is the co-holder of the single-game strikeout record. I also think Clemens, Clemens, Wood and Scherzer are the co-holders of the nine-inning strikeout record. Not coincidentally, I never thought putting an asterisk by Maris's name was a crime against humanity (more specifically, I see no problem with identifying any 154-game record holders, as appropriate).

As for Haddix, I never understood why a guy who gave up hits and runs was credited with a perfect game before Faye's purge. It was a more impressive feat, undoubtedly, than the standard issue perfect game, but he ultimately wasn't perfect.

On the other hand, I don't really understannd why the officialness is so important. Four of the five most memorable perfect games in history weren't official perfect games. You've got No. 1. Larsen (not official, didn't happen in regular season when official records are set), then some combination of Shore (not official, relieved Ruth with one on and no out in the first), Haddix (perfect through 12), and Galarraga (lost perfecto on umpire boner). The only official perfect game that cracks the list is Koufax's.

That's also why I vehemently opposed the next-day push for Selig to change the outcome of Galarraga's game. He threw a perfect game. Everyone knows it. He doesn't really need to be on the main list in BBRef to validate it.

Moreover, now he's remembered as the guy who threw a perfect game but lost it on an umpire mistake, and handled it with the utmost grace, rather than the guy who was screwed on the field but later gifted one in the only instance in baseball history of the commissioner reversing an on-field judgment call out of pity.

   1562. Srul Itza Posted: January 20, 2018 at 02:25 PM (#5610087)
Here is the correct link to the Davidoff ballot, which is actually pretty good.
   1563. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 20, 2018 at 02:37 PM (#5610094)
I'd say Johnson is the co-holder of the single-game strikeout record.


Except that worded that way he's not. The single-game strikeout record is held by Tom Cheney who struck out 21 batters in 16 innings on September 12, 1962.
   1564. SoSH U at work Posted: January 20, 2018 at 03:30 PM (#5610136)
Except that worded that way he's not. The single-game strikeout record is held by Tom Cheney who struck out 21 batters in 16 innings on September 12, 1962.


I stand corrected, though I have no idea how I spent the last 50 years not having known this particular feat existed.

   1565. bachslunch Posted: January 20, 2018 at 03:33 PM (#5610139)
@1559, 1562: Davidoff’s is actually a fine ballot with a little bit of strategic voting (he clearly is not happy with the 10 vote limit): Bonds, Clemens, Andruw, Chipper, Edgar, Mussina, Rolen, Schilling, Thome, Walker. He would have voted for Manny, Vlad, Sheffield, and Sosa with more room, plus he’s not taken with Vizquel or the relievers. He writes well, has got good rationale for his choices, and he thumbs his nose at Joe Morgan and the so-called “sacredness” of the Hall. What’s not to like?

I say give the guy a standing ovation.
   1566. The Duke Posted: January 20, 2018 at 09:15 PM (#5610293)
Amused at how angry the journalists get at someone tweeting a picture when the tweet happens to be about them. On the political side I would think I would be more concerned about my colleagues who continue to ruin press objectivity to such a point that no one on either side believes a word anyone says. On the non-political side I’ve found that most competent bloggers are better writers and often better researchers than the people who call themselves journalists,

Schilling’s juvenile behavior should be the least of their Concerns.
   1567. Booey Posted: January 20, 2018 at 10:21 PM (#5610306)
Except that worded that way he's not. The single-game strikeout record is held by Tom Cheney who struck out 21 batters in 16 innings on September 12, 1962.


I stand corrected, though I have no idea how I spent the last 50 years not having known this particular feat existed.


I remember hearing about that when Johnson got his 20 (probably cuz of the extra inning thing), but yeah, it rarely seems to be brought up. I don't remember it even being mentioned for Clemens 20 (the 2nd one; I missed the 1st), Wood's, or Scherzer's.
   1568. QLE Posted: January 21, 2018 at 01:38 AM (#5610341)
It can happen, but it won't as long as there are 3-5 people going in every year...


That, and there was a perfect storm of conditions encouraging their addition: between inductions and players running out of eligibility, most of the players who had received substantial support from the BBWAA in the early 1980s were off-ballot by 1985 (when Allen, Boyer, Santo, and Vada Pinson were all restored), and the players that got on the ballot between 1984 and 1988, in the eyes both of the BBWAA (who tended either to induct them rapidly or let them fall off after one ballot) and sabermetric analysis (by my count, only six who have any real case, two of which failed to make a second ballot and a third who only narrowly did), were not in the aggregate an especially dazzling lot. As a result, the situation was theoretically ripe for putting neglected players back on the ballot to see if they would gain support- and, as noted, it didn't pan out (as the votes per ballot plunged to a level they would not leave until a few years ago).

For those reasons, I doubt this would happen anytime soon- there will be, in all likelihood, somewhere between eight and ten people on this HOF ballot who merit induction and who will return in 2019, and three more people who merit induction waiting to join them that year. Even when we hit 2021, there will still be a backlog, and the fact that the last battle of the Steroids War should erupt in 2022 won't help matters any. I sincerely don't know when there will be conditions like there were in the mid-1980s anytime soon, and it won't make sense to restore the likes of Edmonds, Lofton, and Posada if they're just thrust into a situation where they could get bounced again.
   1569. TomH Posted: January 21, 2018 at 12:37 PM (#5610405)
1555: Beltran scored 45 runs in the postseaosn, and drove in 42, while only making 154 outs (includnig SH, SF, & GIDP as 2); 154 outs is like 5 or 6 "games". That IS about as impressive as anyone, although Pujols and Ortiz have simialr rate prodcution. Beltran also has one walk off RBI, one walk off run scored, as his postseason WPA is over 2, which is rare among hitters. Now, if you ask me which player actually had the best postseason career asa hitter, I would say Gehrig, since he had fewer opportunities than the modern guys. And if you add in his pitching, Ruth would be my choice. But Beltran has a case.
   1570. Greg Pope Posted: January 21, 2018 at 03:33 PM (#5610427)
The last year bump is very real and if Bonds & Clemens both can crack 60% next year or in 2020 I see them slipping in their final season.

I'm not so sure. The last year bump has to have a reason, right? We've seen writers say things like "I'm not going to be the guy to keep Player X out of the hall." Are there other reasons?

But Bonds and Clemens aren't going to get that. The people voting against them are almost certainly doing it for PED reasons. They're not likely to be swayed.

Now, how many are willing to vote for Bonds and Clemens, but just want them to be "punished"? I don't know. Those voters may relent on the last ballot. So there may be a last year bump, but it will probably be for completely different reasons that normal.
   1571. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 21, 2018 at 05:54 PM (#5610566)
I know they could never do it because of cost, but I think it would be great to have a separate room for each position.
Also, I don't have much use for the whole plaque system. I would rather see a few photos of what the player actually
looked like. If they need more revenue to make it better, they should move the HOF to a major city in the middle of the
country like St. Louis or Dallas. Let's be honest, unless a fan lives out east, they're not going to the HOF unless they're rich.
Personally, I could care less about a bunch of boring speeches or weird plaques, but I would love to see the memorabilia.

   1572. Rennie's Tenet Posted: January 21, 2018 at 07:13 PM (#5610614)
Tracker's at 199 ballots. Per last year's thread, it had 247 ballots late afternoon of announcement day.

Current bubble: Edgar 80.4%, Hoffman 77.4%, Mussina 72.4%.
   1573. SoSH U at work Posted: January 21, 2018 at 07:23 PM (#5610619)
Current bubble: Edgar 80.4%, Hoffman 77.4%, Mussina 72.4%.


Hoffman's safe. Edgar's going to be close.
   1574. Walt Davis Posted: January 21, 2018 at 09:00 PM (#5610693)
So the difference is that outside of the time over which they were similar, Giambi did nothing, while Edgar was extremely good.

Sure. As acknowledged, the difference is real. But it's a "value" difference and a career (or prime) vs. peak difference. As I said, nobody's putting Edgar in the HoF because he was an excellent 3B for a few years, he's going in because he had 8 years as an awesome hitter -- same as Giambi. But my post was mainly in response to the following:

Jason Giambi had a few great years and not much else. There are many the candidate who fell off the ballot with little support with that profile (hello there, Johnny Callison)

Callison? Really? A fine player but well short of that level. That was followed by:

True that that's the total for the span- but said span includes:

1) Two seasons at the start where his OPS+ was at 126 and 130- not bad at all, mind you, but not especially impressive from someone in his position on the defensive spectrum, even before we turn to calculations about his fielding.

2) A season at the end where his OPS+ is at 148- but in which he only played in 139 games, he had a poor season fielding, and where his career trajectory suggests that this wasn't just statistical noise.


It seems fair to note that his peak rivals Edgar's peak over a similar span. And fair enough, that poster does say Giambi just misses for him and another year or two like that and he'd support him ... which is less than the distinction between him and Edgar.

   1575. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: January 21, 2018 at 09:06 PM (#5610696)
Edgar's going to be close.


Edgar's gained 21 votes on the nearly 50% of ballots that are now public.He needed 73 extra from last year to be voted in. Edgar historically has not done as well on the non-public ballots(or am I misrembering?), he has no chance this year and I think he will end up about 40-45 votes short.
I hope I am incorrect and the undisclosed ballots support him as much if not more then the public ballots and he only ends up 20 or so short.
   1576. SoSH U at work Posted: January 21, 2018 at 09:32 PM (#5610705)
Edgar's gained 21 votes on the nearly 50% of ballots that are now public.He needed 73 extra from last year to be voted in. Edgar historically has not done as well on the non-public ballots(or am I misrembering?), he has no chance this year and I think he will end up about 40-45 votes short.
I hope I am incorrect and the undisclosed ballots support him as much if not more then the public ballots and he only ends up 20 or so short.


He's going to gain on the private votes, just as he has with the public ones. And, obviously, that's where he has the most room to grow.

But also, look at this trend line. He went from 26 percent support on the private ballots in 2015 to 34.9 percent in 2016 to 50 percent 2017 last year. He'll make more good gains this year. He's been making great gains with both sets of voters.

It's still a lot of ground to make up in one election, and my guess is he falls short. But it will be close.
   1577. Rennie's Tenet Posted: January 21, 2018 at 09:59 PM (#5610718)
Last year's thread is a little murky, but it looks like Edgar sat at 66.5% somewhere between 194 and 200 ballots in. He dropped 8% from that point.
   1578. QLE Posted: January 22, 2018 at 05:48 AM (#5610754)
If last year means anything, we should have the ESPN ballot announcements sometime today.

Last year, the ballots cast from there went as such:

Tim Raines- 16
Vladimir Guerrero- 15
Edgar Martinez- 15
Jeff Bagwell- 14
Barry Bonds- 13
Roger Clemens- 13
Trevor Hoffman- 13
Mike Mussina- 12
Ivan Rodriguez- 12
Curt Schilling- 7
Lee Smith- 6
Manny Ramirez- 5
Jeff Kent- 3
Fred McGriff- 3
Sammy Sosa- 3
Billy Wagner- 2
Jorge Posada- 1

Source

Combined, these ballots have 49 votes free compared to last year. It will be interesting to see what changes take place- note that two of the three players who have been gaining this year (Vlad and Edgar) have almost no room for gains, while the third (Larry Walker) had absolutely no support last year.
   1579. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: January 22, 2018 at 10:07 AM (#5610804)
How many writers did ESPN lay off among the 17 who voted last year? Per the link above the voters were: Jim Caple, Jerry Crasnick, Pedro Gomez, Dan Graziano, Paul Gutierrez, Tim Kurkjian, Scott Lauber, Joe McDonald, Ian O'Connor, Doug Padilla, Nick Pietruszkiewicz, Adam Rubin, Mark Saxon, Claire Smith, Barry Stanton, Jayson Stark and Jean-Jacques Taylor.

Caple and Stark were let go. Anyone else?

15 of the 17 voted for Edgar last year. The two dissents were Graziano and O'Connor, who unfortunately appear to be still with ESPN.
   1580. Walt Davis Posted: January 22, 2018 at 04:26 PM (#5611226)
Edgar: I did some "detailed" math yesterday. I think he's got very little chance to make it this year. He needed to convert 40% of his non-voters to make it and he's already fallen a bit below that for the public repeat voters. If he has the same conversion rate among the currently unknown, he makes it to the low 70s. Given their lower level of support, it might be reasonable to assume his conversion rate among the currently unknown will be lower but even if I cut it to 2/3 of his conversion rate among the known, which is kind of a worst-case scenario around 68-69%.

Basically we're at the halfway point of the voting and he's got about 80% among the known half and I expect he'll get about 60% among the unknown. Last year there was about a 20 point gap between this half of voters and the other half and that's probably not going to narrow much. He's gained about 11% among these voters but would have to gain about 21% among the others to make it over the line this year.

Caveat that for the 4 anon ballots, we don't know if there have been gains or losses for Edgar and even small changes in his estimated conversion rate might push the estimate over 75%.

To clarify, my use of known/unknown above is in reference to known/unknown (or counted/not-yet-counted) votes this year where the known votes are about half of the expected total. It's not a reference to the final public vs non-public percentages from last year. If last year is a guide, Edgar's support among the about-to-be-revealed ballots will be a good bit lower than what we've seen so far.

EDIT: some for clarity
   1581. -- Posted: January 22, 2018 at 05:01 PM (#5611263)
I really want Edgar to get elected.
   1582. gabrielthursday Posted: January 22, 2018 at 05:49 PM (#5611306)
Yes, Edgar will almost certainly fall short this year. His early conversion rate was off-the-charts, and as expected, it has faded significantly. First-time voters will help a little bit, presumably, and the voters leaving the pool will probably help a little as well, but it won't quite be enough. There is some variation every year with occasional voters - maybe if Martinez does has really good luck with the guys who forget to send in their ballots this year, he might just squeak over the line.
   1583. ajnrules Posted: January 22, 2018 at 05:58 PM (#5611314)
I really want Edgar to get elected.

I think he'll get in...just not this year.
   1584. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 22, 2018 at 05:59 PM (#5611317)
It's OK, though. They already have six inductees. Mo Rivera needs a friend to go in with next year.
   1585. EO1828 Posted: January 22, 2018 at 06:19 PM (#5611328)
From Ballot #190 to Ballot #202

Chipper 98.4% --> 98.5% (12/12)
Vlad 94.7% ---> 94.6% (11/12)
Thome 93.2% ----> 93.1% (11/12)
Edgar 80.5% ----> 79.7% (8/12)
Hoffman 78.4% ----> 77.2% (7/12)
Mussina 73.2% ----> 71.3% (5/12)
Schilling 65.8% ---> 64.9% (6/12)
Clemens 65.8% ----> 63.9% (4/12)
Bonds 65.8% ----> 63.9% (4/12)
Walker 40.0% ----> 40.6% (6/12)
Vizquel 30.0% -----> 30.2% (4/12)
   1586. ajnrules Posted: January 22, 2018 at 06:40 PM (#5611332)
Mo Rivera needs a friend to go in with next year.

I think it's quite appropriate for Mariano to go in next year with the hitter he could never get out. XP
   1587. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: January 22, 2018 at 07:01 PM (#5611338)
It would be more appropriate for Mo to go in with Moose, and deliver the last two minutes of his speech for him.
   1588. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: January 22, 2018 at 07:29 PM (#5611346)
I think it's quite appropriate for Mariano to go in next year with the hitter he could never get out.


Aubrey Huff is going to the HOF?
   1589. Ziggy's screen name Posted: January 22, 2018 at 09:02 PM (#5611395)
That Bonds and Clemens have exactly the same vote total isn't a good sign. Basically it means that the only people who aren't voting for them aren't voting for them for steroids (which might have been obvious anyways, but who knows, there was some genius who didn't vote for Willie Mays after all).
   1590. cardsfanboy Posted: January 22, 2018 at 09:43 PM (#5611426)
I really want Edgar to get elected.


I'm not fully sold on Edgar, but I think his elections helps everyone else(especially his superior, Larry Walker) and that he isn't a clear mistake(like Jim Rice, Jack Morris, or potentially Vizquel) so I don't mind him getting in, but he's not a guy who easily crosses my personal line for election. Most days recently I'm for him in, but there are a few days where I'm thinking he's a stretch. At the same time, you can't deny the rate numbers, bench presence etc.
   1591. cardsfanboy Posted: January 22, 2018 at 09:46 PM (#5611428)
On the STLToday post on the election, I pointed out that Edgar wasn't going to get in and took a bit of flack for that, (mostly because I pointed out that the writers who are cowards and refuse to give legit arguments are the ones who won't release their vote total early) Still, it was a pretty safe bet, Edgar isn't going in, so this won't be a historic election with 5 names, which is what the article was saying was a possibility. (not a probability though)

   1592. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 22, 2018 at 11:11 PM (#5611468)
This is baseball-related because of "Sweet Caroline". Neil Diamond has Parkinson's and is done touring at 77. He says he will still record, but
Linda Ronstadt was in her mid-sixties when she had to retire in 2011 and she can't sing at all now. Neil is my third favorite solo artist after
Elton and Bruce. Oh well, I'm glad he's still alive. Rock and Roll heaven is getting crowded.
   1593. taxandbeerguy Posted: January 23, 2018 at 09:43 AM (#5611576)
Well, Hideki Matsui's not going to be shut out.

10 ESPN voters are now up. Some very good ballots and some rather bad ones.
   1594. Rennie's Tenet Posted: January 23, 2018 at 10:04 AM (#5611590)
ESPN votes. I think some were already in the tracker:

Chipper Jones* 10
Trevor Hoffman 10
Jim Thome* 9
Vladimir Guerrero 9
Edgar Martinez 9
Mike Mussina 7
Barry Bonds 6
Roger Clemens 6
Curt Schilling 5
Omar Vizquel* 4
Jeff Kent 3
Fred McGriff 2
Billy Wagner 2
Sammy Sosa 2
Larry Walker 1
Gary Sheffield 1
Manny Ramirez 1
Hideki Matsui* 1

* First year on the ballot

Edit: Schilling got 7 of 17 ESPN votes in 2017.
   1595. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: January 23, 2018 at 10:11 AM (#5611594)
Ken Davidoff with a nice snarky ballot:

The “most scared place in Baseball”? Really? Imagine your stereotypical nuclear family taking a tour …


I was hoping the typo was still there when I opened the link; what with the nuclear family, some kind of apocalyptic event with Cooperstown as Ground Zero seemed to be implied.
   1596. Rally Posted: January 23, 2018 at 10:29 AM (#5611608)
The “most scared place in Baseball”?

I nominate the left handed batter's box with Randy Johnson on the mound.
   1597. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 23, 2018 at 10:40 AM (#5611619)
MLB.com did their group reveal. Thirteen ballots. If it was just up to them, they'd induct 7 this year - including Bonds, Clemens, Edgar, and Mussina, but not including Hoffman (8 of 13). Larry Walker also did very well here - 9/13. Ryan is up to 214 in the Tracker, which he estimates as over half - although I'm not sure why, there were 440 and 442 voters the last two years.
   1598. PepTech Posted: January 23, 2018 at 10:55 AM (#5611635)
Ryan is up to 214 in the Tracker, which he estimates as over half - although I'm not sure why, there were 440 and 442 voters the last two years.
Just looking at his notes, there's ten that either lost their eligibility or died, and three publicly abstaining, so that cuts things down a bit. I don't know why his estimate is 424 as opposed to some other number; might have to do with the past trends of folks who forget to send them in or do it wrong.
   1599. Baldrick Posted: January 23, 2018 at 11:21 AM (#5611662)
USA Today ballots, including this interesting piece of reasoning from Gabe Lacques:
As for perhaps my penultimate unchecked box for Edgar Martinez, his counting numbers (309 homers, 2,247 hits) don't move the needle for a specialist in the way Hoffman's 601 saves (second all-time, 123 more than No. 3) do. His amazing .418 on-base percentage ranks 18th in the modern era, but came over just 8,674 plate appearances, fewer than any Hall of Famer above him on that list save for Mickey Cochrane, an everyday catcher for 11 seasons. A compelling but borderline case who remains a near-miss for me.
   1600. Baldrick Posted: January 23, 2018 at 11:23 AM (#5611663)
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