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Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Ryan Thibs has his HOF Ballot Tracker Up and Running!

Ryan has received his first official ballot, courtesy of Adam Rubib. Ten votes, including Vizquel.

So who gets a higher percentage of vote this year, Trammell with the VC or Vizquel with the BBWAA? (Only partly a tongue-in-cheek question…)

TJ Posted: November 22, 2017 at 02:48 PM | 1774 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame

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   1601. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: January 23, 2018 at 11:27 AM (#5611670)
As for perhaps my penultimate unchecked box for Edgar Martinez, his counting numbers (309 homers, 2,247 hits) don't move the needle for a specialist in the way Hoffman's 601 saves (second all-time, 123 more than No. 3) do. His amazing .418 on-base percentage ranks 18th in the modern era, but came over just 8,674 plate appearances, fewer than any Hall of Famer above him on that list save for Mickey Cochrane, an everyday catcher for 11 seasons. A compelling but borderline case who remains a near-miss for me.


Edgar had 8,674 PA
Hoffman faced only 4388 batters in his career.
   1602. TJ Posted: January 23, 2018 at 11:31 AM (#5611676)
My favorite group reveal comment came from some guy in the northjersey.com pool who covers the National League. He said he couldn't vote for Edgar Martinez because Martinez played in the American League and he didn't see enough of Martinez to be convinced.,,

If you don't feel you can vote for a player because he played in the other league so you didn't see him enough, that eliminates anywhere from 30% to 50% of the ballot any given year. How the hell can you still feel qualified to be a Hall of Fame voter?

   1603. Baldrick Posted: January 23, 2018 at 11:33 AM (#5611679)
Oh man, this is the best part from that USA Today group. From Jorge Ortiz:
My most controversial omission, other than the obvious steroid guys, is Thome. I understand the arguments in his favor and I’m sure he’ll get in. But Thome always struck me as a one-dimensional player who was not even the most consequential figure on those great Indians teams of the '90s. Ramirez and Sandy Alomar Jr. were bigger factors. In 22 seasons, Thome had one top-five MVP finish (fourth in 2003 with the Phillies). That sticks out to me.

HE VOTED FOR OMAR VIZQUEL
   1604. Random Transaction Generator Posted: January 23, 2018 at 11:35 AM (#5611682)
The closest race right now is between Andruw Jones and the 5% rule.
He's sitting at 6.1% of the known vote.
   1605. SoSH U at work Posted: January 23, 2018 at 11:36 AM (#5611683)
Ramirez and Sandy Alomar Jr. were bigger factors.


Sandy Alomar?
   1606. Baldrick Posted: January 23, 2018 at 11:41 AM (#5611687)
Sandy Alomar?

That's the part that makes me seriously ponder whether the entire comment is just an elaborate troll.
   1607. Jaack Posted: January 23, 2018 at 11:53 AM (#5611700)
You may laugh, but Alomar got 16 Hall of Fame votes in 2013, which was only two less than Kenny Lofton.

That being said, some of those may have been trying to vote for Roberto Alomar.
   1608. Booey Posted: January 23, 2018 at 12:09 PM (#5611708)
In 22 seasons, Thome had one top-five MVP finish (fourth in 2003 with the Phillies). That sticks out to me.

HE VOTED FOR OMAR VIZQUEL


So just one top-five MVP finish in 22 seasons for Thome stands out, but ZERO top-15 (!) finishes in 24 years for Vizquel doesn't?

And yeah, the Sandy Alomar comment.

Just wow.
   1609. Ithaca2323 Posted: January 23, 2018 at 12:12 PM (#5611713)
#1608 echoes my frustration.

I get that there are just some people that will never be convinced that [dude i think should be a HOFer] should be. But there's just astoundingly poor logic in some of these. Maybe they don't have space to fully explain their reasoning, but my god
   1610. Booey Posted: January 23, 2018 at 12:45 PM (#5611735)
#1609 - Yeah. It's not the choices that bother me, it's the wildly inconsistent logic. I can agree to disagree with someone who thinks Vizquel is a HOFer, or someone else who thinks Thome isn't cuz he was a bit compiler-ish and didn't really shine in MVP voting, but holding both those opinions at the same time makes absolutely no damn sense!!! Vizquel is the definition of a compiler that was never truly dominant, and even Thome's meager MVP support blows Omar's completely non-existent support out of the water.

It's like Morris vs Mussina. I think Moose is a clear "yes" and Jack a clear "no", personally, but I can at least fathom how someone could be yes to both or no to both, but I DON'T understand how someone could be "yes" to Jack and "no" to Moose. Looking over their numbers, there's just no rational way to conclude that Morris had the better career. All the usual criticisms against Mussina - didn't win 300 games, no CYA's, relatively ho-hum ERA - apply even stronger towards the Jack.
   1611. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: January 23, 2018 at 12:56 PM (#5611739)
A few more votes have trickled in; Hoffman and Edgar now even at 77.9%.
   1612. The Duke Posted: January 23, 2018 at 12:57 PM (#5611740)
Vizquel had more hits than Babe Ruth. And every voter who saw him swears he was better than Ozzie or at least his equal. Not hard to see why he is getting 30% support. A lot of guys who don’t do well have some negative narrative which detracts from their story. PEDs for some, schilling is an asshat, rolen couldn’t get along with anyone, Jones collapsed, etc. vizquel doesn’t have to swim upstream against a negative narrative so he’s an easy vote.

   1613. Booey Posted: January 23, 2018 at 01:01 PM (#5611742)
Vizquel had more hits than Babe Ruth.


And right behind him is Harold Baines.
   1614. The Duke Posted: January 23, 2018 at 01:06 PM (#5611747)
Morgan’s letter stopped the pro-ped fan club in its tracks. Bonds and Clemens are flat and the other ped guys lost votes. Morgan was simply trying to stop the “inevitable” momentum and at least for a year he seems to have succeeded. Is Kent considers a ped guy or is he a 10 vote victim this year?
   1615. Booey Posted: January 23, 2018 at 01:06 PM (#5611748)
And again, I'm not really dissing his selection of Vizquel, per se, I'm calling out his logic against Thome WHILE voting for Vizquel, since this guys own criticisms apply against Omar ten-fold.

And for the record, Thome had more homers than Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, Frank Robinson, Mike Schmidt, etc. ;-)
   1616. EO1828 Posted: January 23, 2018 at 01:08 PM (#5611749)
From Ballot #200 to Ballot #217

Chipper 98.5% --> 98.6% (17/17)
Vlad 94.5% ---> 94.5% (16/17)
Thome 93.5% ----> 92.6% (14/17)
Edgar 80.0% ----> 77.9% (9/17)
Hoffman 77.0% ----> 77.9% (15/17)
Mussina 72.0% ----> 70.5% (9/17)
Schilling 65.0% ---> 62.2% (5/17)
Clemens 64.5% ----> 63.6% (9/17)
Bonds 64.5% ----> 63.6% (9/17)
Walker 41.0% ----> 39.2% (3/17)
Vizquel 31.5% -----> 31.3% (5/17)

Edgar, Schilling and Walker had big drops with last 17 revealed ballots. Hoffman gained the most. Chipper and Vlad held steady.

Edgar may drop below 70% when all is done, unless he can convert more voters.
   1617. Ithaca2323 Posted: January 23, 2018 at 01:45 PM (#5611787)
Edgar's gains have really stalled out.

He's probably fine for next season, but if he drops below 70%, I'm going to be a tad worried.
   1618. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 23, 2018 at 02:08 PM (#5611806)
Vizquel is going to make the HoF on his ninth or tenth ballot, isn't he? Maybe he gets the Trammell treatment from the BBWAA, but Trammell debuted with about half of what Vizquel is going to get. Fitting that he debuts the same year Morris finally made it.
   1619. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 23, 2018 at 02:09 PM (#5611810)
I'm going to stick with my 68% prediction for Edgar. I think if Mussina finishes at 62-63%, he has a chance to make the big leap
next year. You gotta figure the Big 8 will be Rivera / Edgar / Mussina / Schilling / Halladay / Bonds / Clemens / Larry.
That still leaves two spots for personal faves.
   1620. Ithaca2323 Posted: January 23, 2018 at 02:21 PM (#5611833)
I'm sure Pettitte will do very well, though he was nowhere as good as Mussina. But 60 bWAR plus the postseason? He'll get a good chunk
   1621. taxandbeerguy Posted: January 23, 2018 at 02:37 PM (#5611863)
@1618

I don't really think so. Looking at the way the new voters are trending, they are sabermetrically inclined (see higher scores for Martinez, Schilling and Mussina), care about PED's but only to the extent that someone was caught (see disparity of scores for Bonds and Clemens compared with Ramirez, although some of this may be the overwhelming #'s for Bonds and Clemens), but do seem to be making a push to get guys in (Vlad and especially Hoffman). So maybe if Vizquel can get 50%, these newer voters will switch their opinions (or if further facts in future revisions of WAR show that Vizquel is a better candidate than he currently is), but the slog to get from 30% to 50% will likely be tougher for him (like Lee Smith) than for sabermetically oriented candidates such as Raines, Edgar, Blyleven, Mussina and Schilling (and Walker to a lesser extent).

Edgar's done this year, but hopeful he can snag 70% of the vote that will set him up nicely. I'm curious about first year voters in this respect 4 votes for Sosa and 1 for Sheffield. by BBREF WAR they are pretty close and the only way Sheffield even drops this far is a monstrously bad total in the field. Probably small sample size, some concerns about Sosa staying on, and possibly quite a few ballots that would have both if ballots expanded. An interesting difference nonetheless.

Also there's certainly some weighing of the seriousness of the (suspected) PED crime going on, with strategic voting and such.
I have it mentally in 5 tiers something like this:
Level 0 - No taint (Most of these guys)
Level 1 - Suspicions and allegations, but nothing beyond that (think Piazza, Pudge and Bagwell). Voters were initially cautious, but as years passed, many hard core anti-PED voters were forced out, these guys gained traction to the point where Pudge was elected first ballot.
Level 2 - More damning evidence (Mitchell Report) admissions of using drugs that were later banned. Sheffield and Sosa seem to fall here
Level 3 - Bonds and Clemens - Highly suspected, but realistically should be in Level 1.
Level 4 - Caught using PED's (Ramirez and Palmeiro).

Seems to be three groups of voters on this issue.
1) Anything more than Level 1 - No vote
2) Somewhere between Levels 3 and 4 is their line, Sosa and Sheffield maybe get slight mental demerits, but since the ballot is so crowded they are 11-13 on many full ballots.
3) Doesn't seem to be an issue / career stats so overwhelming it doesn't matter.

Just some observations as announcement day arrives tomorrow.
   1622. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 23, 2018 at 02:46 PM (#5611875)
Vizquel had more hits than Babe Ruth. And every voter who saw him swears he was better than Ozzie or at least his equal.

My recollection is that many observers consider Ozzie to be in a class by himself, and Vizquel one of many light-hitting, good-fielding shortstops who have come and gone over the years.
   1623. Ithaca2323 Posted: January 23, 2018 at 02:47 PM (#5611878)
Re: 1621

The new voter thing is huge. For example, if you look at Mussina's past three years, I think he's 29-for-35 with the newcomers. That's 83%, and it's a decent part of his gains these past three years.

Omar being 2-for-11 is a really bad sign for him long term.
   1624. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: January 23, 2018 at 02:53 PM (#5611887)
My recollection is that many observers consider Ozzie to be in a class by himself, and Vizquel one of many light-hitting, good-fielding shortstops who have come and gone over the years.
+1. I saw Vizquel for several years in Seattle, and he made a bunch of great plays, but he's no Ozzie, and it's not particularly close.
   1625. John DiFool2 Posted: January 23, 2018 at 03:05 PM (#5611906)
This is baseball-related because of "Sweet Caroline". Neil Diamond has Parkinson's and is done touring at 77. He says he will still record, but
Linda Ronstadt was in her mid-sixties when she had to retire in 2011 and she can't sing at all now. Neil is my third favorite solo artist after
Elton and Bruce. Oh well, I'm glad he's still alive. Rock and Roll heaven is getting crowded.


Annnd Rush just hung them up too.
   1626. DanG Posted: January 23, 2018 at 03:09 PM (#5611915)
vizquel doesn’t have to swim upstream against a negative narrative
Doesn't he?

Omar’s negative narrative:

• Never seen as a great player; received a total of one MVP vote in his career
• Named an all-star only three times
• Poor hitter: batted .300 only once; reached 10 HR only once, in the silly-ball era
• Scored 100 runs in only two seasons, despite being fast and batting #2 for good offenses
• Never his team’s best player
• Never his team’s 2nd best player
• Not paid like a super star, never among the league’s top 40 salaries (e.g., Thome earned well over twice as much as Omar in his career)
• Poor post-season performer, never won a ring
   1627. John DiFool2 Posted: January 23, 2018 at 03:10 PM (#5611918)
But Thome always struck me as a one-dimensional player


If a guy with a career OBP of .402 is "one dimensional," are the likes of Dave Kingman and Joe Carter "zero" dimensional?
   1628. Rally Posted: January 23, 2018 at 03:34 PM (#5611953)
vizquel doesn’t have to swim upstream against a negative narrative


I don't think he could if he had to. He's no Tim Salmon.
   1629. Moeball Posted: January 23, 2018 at 03:57 PM (#5611973)
The “most scared place in Baseball”?

I nominate the left handed batter's box with Randy Johnson on the mound.


I didn't really know Tony Gwynn, but our paths did cross a few times and it was always fun to hear him talk about hitting because he usually had some pretty intelligent insights.

For instance, here's a couple of comments he made about trying to hit against Randy Johnson:

1)The guy was almost 7 feet tall with long arms and legs, so by the time he completed his stride towards home plate and released the ball, the pitch was coming from much closer than 60 feet away from the plate, making his fastball, difficult enough to hit at 98-100 mph, seem even faster because the ball was on top of the batter so quickly.

2)Since Randy had a habit of dropping his arm to almost a sidearm release point on some pitches, it made the pitch look like it was coming from first base instead of the pitcher's mound, which made it even more difficult for a left handed batter to pick up. Thus the batter would have to open up his stance a little more than usual in order to track those pitches.
   1630. Rally Posted: January 23, 2018 at 04:07 PM (#5611985)
Had to look it up, I was expected that even with all that, Gwynn hit .420 off Johnson or something like that.

But no, only 2 for 18.

You'd never know it by his famous all-star game AB, but Larry Walker hit .393 (11 for 28, 1 HR) off Randy. John Kruk's famous AB against Johnson in the 1993 all-star game was the only time they ever faced each other, unless it happened in spring training.
   1631. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: January 23, 2018 at 04:13 PM (#5611996)
If a guy with a career OBP of .402 is "one dimensional,"


I'm pretty sure that the people calling Thome one dimensional consider batting to be a single dimension. Other dimensions would be defense and baserunning, for example. Or did somebody actually call Thome a one dimensional hitter?
   1632. Moeball Posted: January 23, 2018 at 04:22 PM (#5612013)
As for perhaps my penultimate unchecked box for Edgar Martinez, his counting numbers (309 homers, 2,247 hits) don't move the needle for a specialist in the way Hoffman's 601 saves (second all-time, 123 more than No. 3) do. His amazing .418 on-base percentage ranks 18th in the modern era, but came over just 8,674 plate appearances, fewer than any Hall of Famer above him on that list save for Mickey Cochrane, an everyday catcher for 11 seasons. A compelling but borderline case who remains a near-miss for me.


I don't know where this guy gets his "18th in the modern era" from - I just did a Play Index search on Bref and Edgar is 12th all time for hitters with at least 8000 PA since 1901 (I don't know what the writer considers "modern").

As for the "fewer than any Hall of Famer above him" reference to the plate appearances, I have two comments on that:

1)The 11 guys above Edgar on the list I saw were T Williams, B Ruth, Gehrig, Bonds, Hornsby, Cobb, Foxx, Speaker, E Collins, Mantle and F Thomas. You're right, Edgar probably wasn't as good a hitter as, you know, the top 10 or so hitters of all time! Shame on Edgar! This is another of the writers who thinks that the HOF should probably have about 25-30 members total. Yeah, that's realistic. Only the top 3 or so players from each position, at most.

2)I feel this needs to be said - many people refer to a career with 8000 PA as "only" 8000 PA, as if this is a short career. I've got news for you, it isn't. The HOF requires that a player play at least 10 years in the bigs to qualify, and 8000 PA is clearly well over a decade of play. In fact, if someone had 8032 PA, that would be the equivalent of 16 seasons of averaging 502 PA per season, the minimum required to be considered a regular everyday player on a seasonal basis and eligible for the percentage titles - BA, OBA, SLG. 16 seasons of being a qualifying player is NOT a short career, it's far from it. A guy with a career .418 OBA in over 8600 PA and a 147 OPS+ over that time is not a marginal player, this is one of the top 15-20 hitters EVER. Edgar isn't a borderline player, he's ridiculously OVER qualified.

If the HOF is too selective to let in one of the top 20 hitters of all time, then someone needs to re-think what the HOF is or should be about. I realize I'm probably wasting my breath because Edgar is most likely going to get elected in another year anyways, but I felt compelled to speak out.
   1633. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: January 23, 2018 at 04:34 PM (#5612031)
• Poor post-season performer, never won a ring

Also, wrote a book throwing his teammate under the bus for losing the WS.
   1634. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: January 23, 2018 at 04:46 PM (#5612038)
One thing I don't quite get. I was given to understand that the ballots needed to be returned some time ago, around the end of the year. At least, there were several articles that implied as much ("I've got three days left to make my final choice," or words to that effect).

That makes it odd to me that they dribble out in January. The voting is done. The Tracker doesn't influence any votes once the deadline has passed. I suppose I understand voters not wanting to make their votes public before the final count is announced, or never; what I don't get is why you'd choose Jan 5 or Jan 10 or Jan 15. Either you publish before the deadline in an effort to influence, you publish immediately after, you wait until the Hall announces, or you keep it private. What am I missing?
   1635. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: January 23, 2018 at 04:53 PM (#5612043)
Or did somebody actually call Thome a one dimensional hitter?

he did hit a lot of liners
   1636. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 23, 2018 at 05:00 PM (#5612052)
That makes it odd to me that they dribble out in January. The voting is done. The Tracker doesn't influence any votes once the deadline has passed. I suppose I understand voters not wanting to make their votes public before the final count is announced, or never; what I don't get is why you'd choose Jan 5 or Jan 10 or Jan 15. Either you publish before the deadline in an effort to influence, you publish immediately after, you wait until the Hall announces, or you keep it private. What am I missing?


There weren't a lot of ballots that were published on "Jan 5 or Jan 10 or Jan 15" for exactly the reasons you laid out. There are several publications, though - ESPN, MLB.com, et al - that have traditionally revealed how their writers voted right before the announcement. That's the surge of votes we've seen in the past 2-3 days. I think the idea is it's a way to build some excitement for the actual vote and give something of a teaser of who might be elected. The latter, of course, is less of a thing as the profile of Ryan's tracker has grown.

Another thing that makes this year a bit unusual is that the announcement is later than it has been. Up until a couple of years ago, the announcement was fairly early in January, so "immediately after" the deadline basically WAS right before the announcement.
   1637. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: January 23, 2018 at 05:09 PM (#5612056)
people refer to a career with 8000 PA as "only" 8000 PA, as if this is a short career
Just checked: Johnny Bench has exactly the same number of PAs as Edgar, 8674.

HOFers with around that total, or significantly less (ranked by PA):

84. Willie Stargell 9027
85. Gary Carter 9019
87. Harry Heilmann 8964
90. Joe Torre 8802
94. Heinie Manush 8419
96. Bill Mazeroski 8379
103. Duke Snider 8237
111. Kirby Puckett 7831
112. Mike Piazza 7745
114. Dan Brouthers 7691
115. Joe DiMaggio 7672

116. Billy Hamilton 7608
119. Johnny Mize 7370
122. Earl Averill 7221
124. Chuck Klein 7171
144. Ralph Kiner 6256
148. Hank Greenberg 6098
157. Hack Wilson 5556


Yeah, yeah, Edgar was on the low end *and* a DH. I've heard that one before.

Bonus points for figuring out why some are bolded...
   1638. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 23, 2018 at 05:15 PM (#5612061)
I don't get is why you'd choose Jan 5 or Jan 10 or Jan 15. Either you publish before the deadline in an effort to influence, you publish immediately after, you wait until the Hall announces, or you keep it private. What am I missing?

Some of the larger entities, such as ESPN & MLB.com, appear to have made an institutional decision to not influence the vote by publishing while voting is underway, but still get some buzz by writing about its writers votes. Same for some newspapers or individual writers. There are a lot of ways to approach releasing one's ballot, and the process may be in transition as more voters and those interested in the vote have become aware of Thibodaux's Tracker.
   1639. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: January 23, 2018 at 05:17 PM (#5612063)
the process may be in transition as more voters and those interested in the vote have become aware of Thibodaux's Tracker.
It seems like the Tracker has reached its tipping point w/r/t mainstream media - in the last week both the local TV news and the local print newspaper have referenced it, so it's not just interweb geeks. It will be interesting to see how voting trends progress in the next couple years.
   1640. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 23, 2018 at 05:20 PM (#5612064)
Just checked: Johnny Bench has exactly the same number of PAs as Edgar, 8674.

HOFers with around that total, or significantly less (ranked by PA):

84. Willie Stargell 9027

...

157. Hack Wilson 5556


I dunno, maybe it's me, but that table is not terribly persuasive that Edgar doesn't have a "short career" for a Hall-of-Famer. Below Stargell (whose biggest negative is that he never played full seasons), it's mostly a list of catchers, mistakes, and guys who missed time in World War II - and Duke Snider; I'll give you Duke Snider.
   1641. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: January 23, 2018 at 05:30 PM (#5612067)
I dunno, maybe it's me, but that table is not terribly persuasive that Edgar doesn't have a "short career" for a Hall-of-Famer
Oh, there's no doubt Edgar's on the short end, the point being he's not anywhere near the shortest, and not by a long shot. The average (among position players) is 9052.

Going upwards from Stargell, we've got:

81. Barry Larkin 9057
80. Jim Rice 9058
73. Jeff Bagwell 9431
72. Pee Wee Reese 9470
71. Rogers Hornsby 9480

Edit: To be (not entirely) clear, it doesn't state whether 9052 is the median or the mean. The page only says "Average".
   1642. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 23, 2018 at 05:30 PM (#5612068)
(1640) I would say Kiner and Duke both fall under the injury category.
   1643. taxandbeerguy Posted: January 23, 2018 at 05:36 PM (#5612072)
Reviewing a few more interesting things on the tracker this afternoon. Trying to get a feel for who Rolen's supporters are and whether there are any "traditional" voters or if they all have a sabermetric slant. Didn't know the best way of handling it so thought I would look at who else these voters voted for. Arbitrarily decided to see how many of Schilling, Martinez, Walker and Mussina these voters voted for as these are generally Saber-leaning candidates (despite the fact that all are well qualified in other regards) and have middling support and no PED issues.

29 Rolen votes as of now. All but 4 voted for at least 3 of Schilling, Mussina, Edgar, Walker. Those 4 all voted for 10 (Joe Smith, Paul Hagen, John Heyman and Adam Rubin), voted Bonds (and all but Heyman voted for Clemens) plus there's an Andruw Jones vote in there, so the ballots are generally good. Everyone who voted for Rolen voted for at least 9. So needless to say there's not any small hall traditional voters voting for Rolen. Which I guess isn't surprising, but was interested in seeing the numbers.

Also took a look at the drops today for mid-level candidates to see if it's a change in opinion, or the need to drop someone to free up room for Thome, Chipper (and Vlad or Hoffman to get them over the line). As of 226 public ballots Bonds and Clemens only have 1 drop, Guerrero has none, Hoffman's likely getting in so irrelevant for future elections.

Kent has 10 drops, 2 would've voted with more space, 2 seem to have changed their mind (Henning and Plunkett) and the other 6 all had full ballots but didn't disclose if they would've voted. So give it a couple of years and this support probably returns.
Edgar has 3 drops, 2 would've voted with more space and 1 with full ballot but didn't specify re Edgar.
McGriff has 6 drops, 1 would've vote with more space, 1 is a straight drop (Ringolsby) and 4 didn't disclose but had full ballots.
Mussina has 4 drops, 1 would've voted with more space, and 3 didn't disclose but had full ballots.
Manny has 12 drops, 2 would've voted with more space, 7 didn't disclose, 2 dropped for nobody (Ginsburg and Henderson) and 1 indicated discloses but didn't indicate that Manny was among them (Vaccaro). I know that Joe Posnanski was one of the 7 in no-disclosures and would've voted for Manny with space and tend to beleive most writers are in the same boat with most candidates.
Schilling has 5 drops, 2 would've voted with more space and 3 with full ballots but didn't specify.
Sheffield has 5 drops, 1 was a straight drop (Daughtry) and 4 had full ballots but didn't specify omissions.
Sosa has 5 drops, 1 was a straight drop (Borges) and 4 had full ballots but didn't specify.
Wagner has 4 drops, 1 was a straight drop, 1 would have voted for with more space, another had a full ballot but didn't disclose and 1 indicated disclosures but didn't mention Wagner (Vaccaro again)
Walker has 1 drop and would've been voted for with more space.

I'm not sure what any of this proves other than for quite a few candidates, the actual support is understated by at least a couple of percentage points based solely on who was dropped in 2018 from various ballots, never mind the "would have voted for" category for those with 10 man ballots.
   1644. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: January 23, 2018 at 05:40 PM (#5612076)

2)I feel this needs to be said - many people refer to a career with 8000 PA as "only" 8000 PA, as if this is a short career. I've got news for you, it isn't. The HOF requires that a player play at least 10 years in the bigs to qualify, and 8000 PA is clearly well over a decade of play. In fact, if someone had 8032 PA, that would be the equivalent of 16 seasons of averaging 502 PA per season, the minimum required to be considered a regular everyday player on a seasonal basis and eligible for the percentage titles - BA, OBA, SLG. 16 seasons of being a qualifying player is NOT a short career, it's far from it.
No, it is a short career. You spun that about as best as possible, but 502 PAs may be a "qualifying player," but it would be a very short season. That'd be, what, about 115, 120 games? A guy who played only 120 games a year every year, is either a part-time player, injury prone, or a catcher.
   1645. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 23, 2018 at 05:41 PM (#5612077)
#1603:
Oh man, this is the best part from that USA Today group. From Jorge Ortiz:

Looks like there were 4 others who also voted Vizquel but not Thome. Granted, that's rather difficult to justify, but it's still a small number of voters.
   1646. Greg Pope Posted: January 23, 2018 at 06:34 PM (#5612106)
The guy was almost 7 feet tall with long arms and legs, so by the time he completed his stride towards home plate and released the ball, the pitch was coming from much closer than 60 feet away from the plate, making his fastball, difficult enough to hit at 98-100 mph, seem even faster because the ball was on top of the batter so quickly.

OK, but no pitcher releases the ball 60 feet away. How much closer was Johnson's release than the average pitcher?
   1647. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: January 23, 2018 at 07:15 PM (#5612128)
Fangraphs did a detailed analysis of Stephen Strasburg's release point a couple of years ago. 54'4". He's 6'4".
   1648. SoSH U at work Posted: January 23, 2018 at 07:54 PM (#5612146)
John Kruk's famous AB against Johnson in the 1993 all-star game was the only time they ever faced each other, unless it happened in spring training.


Not likely. Kruk came up with the Pads, who trained in Ariz. Johnson was with the Spos, Grapefruit League mainstays. They were each traded during the 1989 season, with Kruk shifting ST homes to Florida and Randy going the other way. Kruk spent one more year with the White Sox before retiring. Chicago is now an AZ club but were still in Florida at the time.

And the absence of any at bats before that A-S game was not a case of keeping Kruk away from Big Unit. They only spent parts of two seasons in the same league - 1988 and 1989. Johnson didn't face Kruk's Padres in either of those seasons.

   1649. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 23, 2018 at 09:24 PM (#5612180)
Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, and Joey Votto are all age 34-35 with six years remaining on their deals.
JUST FOR GIGGLES, let's assume they are all healthy and productive, retiring after the 2023 season with strong HOF cases.
How many players would be inducted in the ten elections before the Big Three?

Mariano Rivera, Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina, Roy Halladay, Derek Jeter, Curt Schilling, Big Papi, Ichiro, Carlos Beltran,
Adrian Beltre, Albert Pujols. That's 11 in 10 years.

Can any of Greinke, Verlander, or Scherzer stay good for six more seasons to make the Class of 2029 even more crowded?
Greinke and Verlander were both born in 1983 and have identical 56.9 WARs. Scherzer got a late start, but he's got the
three CYAs and has five straight seasons of 6+ WAR.
   1650. Booey Posted: January 23, 2018 at 09:59 PM (#5612190)
How many players would be inducted in the ten elections before the Big Three?


I think Verlander and Scherzer are likely HOFers (as power pitchers though, they could last longer than 6 more seasons). Kershaw isn't exactly an iron man; he could possibly retire before 2023. Sabathia still has a pretty good shot IMO. Mauer and Posey.

I agree with (what I think is) your overall point, though; HOF elections are gonna get mighty thin for a while there. Probably be several 1 player elections. 3 player elections might go back to the once a decade or so rarity that they were before ballotgeddon. I'm guessing the voters answer to the weak ballots though is to push through some borderline (Pettitte) or worse (Vizquel) candidates, just like they did from 2006-2009 when some "meh" ballots helped get the likes of Sutter, Gossage, and Rice elected.
   1651. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 23, 2018 at 10:45 PM (#5612205)
Now that Sabathia has dealt with his personal problems, maybe he can keep his "second wind" going for 4-5 more years and really get
that win total up there. You never know with those crafty veterans. Glavine, Maddux, RJ all were effective into their forties.
Mauer is a real tough one for me to figure out. I think Posey still has 7 or 8 seasons, not all as a catcher, off course.
   1652. QLE Posted: January 24, 2018 at 12:46 AM (#5612223)
Looking at some of the comments that have been made since last I was around (rather busy today, and have no idea when I'll be around tomorrow):

Is Kent considers a ped guy or is he a 10 vote victim this year?


Neither, really. The issue I see with him is that, on this current ballot, he's the 16th-best player at best, and this year in particular has two first-timers who are clearly more impressive than him offensively and a third who, other than home runs, is about the same offensively and adds the fact that he was impressive defensively at his position. That is a combination that isn't going to help him any.

Maybe he gets the Trammell treatment from the BBWAA, but Trammell debuted with about half of what Vizquel is going to get.


In addition to what #1621 notes, there are several players who quickly got support in the 30s and 40s and then stalled- in addition to Lee Smith, Gil Hodges, Maury Wills, Tony Oliva, and Steve Garvey are all examples since 1980 of this trend in action. High support to start guarantees nothing, and Vizquel could be another example of this in action.

I don't know where this guy gets his "18th in the modern era" from


Quite- on the one hand, Martinez is 21st on BBREF's list, but that list includes:

1) Brouthers, Hamilton, Bill Joyce, and McGraw- four players who played chiefly in the nineteenth century;

2) Ferris Fain, who didn't even reach the ten-season mark;

3) Max Bishop, who had in-season durability issues and whose OBP is almost as empty as an OBP that high can be;

4) Joey Votto, who is still active and who probably will have his OBP decline by the end of his career;

5) Cochrane, whose career is more or less accurately described in the excerpt;

6) Shoeless Joe Jackson, whose career end and reason for being out of the HOF is a matter of common knowledge.

In other words, the 18th is clearly wrong (there's no definition of "modern era" that seems to fit this- it's 17th if we mean post-1901, and 20th if we mean post-1893), and the claim of no HOFer with that OBP having a shorter career but Cochrane is, firstly, only accurate for twentieth-century players (Brouthers and Hamilton also have fewer), and, secondly, is deeply misleading- none of the players above him on that list with shorter careers had careers anywhere near his length, and (if my math is accurate) you have to go to Brian Giles before you find a player who played chiefly in the 20th century, came within 1000 plate appearances of him, has faced the BBWAA, and either didn't enter the HOF or isn't still on the ballot.

The weird thing about it is, based on his other selections and his prior public ballots, Lacques on the whole seems reasonably sound in his choices (other than an unfortunate taste for Hoffman)- maybe it's some odd personal thing.

Below Stargell (whose biggest negative is that he never played full seasons), it's mostly a list of catchers, mistakes, and guys who missed time in World War II - and Duke Snider; I'll give you Duke Snider.


And even Heilmann missed half a season due to entering the service in WWI, lost time in 1919 due to the shorter schedule, suffered a severe injury that cut short his 1922 season, ad because he played in the 154-game era probably lost around 200 or so plate appearances from the five seasons where he essentially played every game- add all those together, and that's around 700 or so plate appearances lost.

So needless to say there's not any small hall traditional voters voting for Rolen. Which I guess isn't surprising, but was interested in seeing the numbers.


Quite- I haven't done the data-entry to prove this for certain, but, looking at the Rolen voters, it seems there's an odd intangibility to them. There are nine players on this HOF ballot who currently have 50% or more support. It seems that there are no Rolen voters who back all nine of these players- the vote for him seems clearly sabermetrically-inclined and for a large hall, but they all seem to find room for him through some more popular candidate they don't support.
   1653. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 24, 2018 at 05:31 AM (#5612231)
ANDRUW JONES....I hope I'm wrong, but I think he's gonna miss out. The non-publics are going to stay away from the low BA (4.8%).
   1654. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: January 24, 2018 at 08:30 AM (#5612239)
4) Joey Votto, who is still active and who probably will have his OBP decline by the end of his career;


BLASPHEMY! :-)



Edgar put up .400 OB%s through age 40. Votto seems incapable of putting up OB% under .400, unless he is playing on one leg (2014, and still put up a .390).

Edgar actually lost 5 points of OB% in his last season. .423 through age 40, .418 after a .263/.342/.385 age 41 season.
   1655. Rally Posted: January 24, 2018 at 10:22 AM (#5612287)
Is Kent considers a ped guy or is he a 10 vote victim this year?


Don't think he has any credible PED rumors about him.

I'm imagining a more sane HOF voting process.

1. Clemens, Bonds, Manny are not on the ballot. Either they got in first ballot, or the voters all collectively decided to keep them out, but none are taking up ballot space.
2. Edgar, Mussina, Schilling got in a lot earlier than in reality. They are in, we don't have to worry about them now.
3. Hoffman went in either 1st or 2nd.

Holdover ballot is:
Guerrero 71.7
Walker 21.9
McGriff 21.7
Kent 16.7
Sheffield 13.3
Wagner 10.2
Sosa 8.6

Chipper and Thome would be first ballot newcomers, and Vlad gets in. Maybe Walker would be looking even stronger. Kent would be clearly one of the 10 best candidates, but that may not be enough to convince voters to check his name. I guess he'd be getting 30-40%.
   1656. dlf Posted: January 24, 2018 at 11:34 AM (#5612366)
Thib's ballot tracker itself is tracking very well. I've heard it mentioned on talk radio, read about it in numerous articles about the vote generally or individual writers' choices, and yesterday in my google news summary had it linked directly. Great job Ryan and well done kicking off the project Repoz.
   1657. bachslunch Posted: January 24, 2018 at 11:39 AM (#5612373)
Might have already been mentioned, but it looks like all but Andruw, Santana, and Damon among those whose votes are being tallied via the Thibs Tracker are projected safe to stay on the ballot another year. Andruw is projected at 8 votes short, while the other two haven't received more than 3 votes total.
   1658. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 24, 2018 at 11:46 AM (#5612385)
Andruw still has a chance to get 8 votes out of the remaining 180 or so voters.
   1659. SoSH U at work Posted: January 24, 2018 at 11:48 AM (#5612389)
Andruw is projected at 8 votes short, while the other two haven't received more than 3 votes total.


He's not projected at eight votes short. That's where he sits with 56 percent of the vote in.

My guess is he finishes 1 or 2 votes in either direction of the 5 percent line.
   1660. Rennie's Tenet Posted: January 24, 2018 at 02:23 PM (#5612594)
At 243 ballots, 4 hours from the announcement:

C. Jones 98.4%
Guerrero 94.7
Thome 93.4
Hoffman 79.0
Martinez 77.4
Mussina 70.4
Bonds 64.2
Clemens 64.2
Schilling 60.1
Walker 38.3
Vizquel 33.3
Ramirez 22.2
McGriff 19.3
Kent 13.2
Rolen 12.3
Wagner 10.7
Sosa 10.7
Sheffield 10.7
A. Jones 5.8
Damon 1.2
Santana 1.2
   1661. EO1828 Posted: January 24, 2018 at 02:29 PM (#5612597)
When is the earliest we will see 3+ candidates again voted in by the BBWAA?

2019? Mo, Edgar and Halladay?
   1662. Blastin Posted: January 24, 2018 at 02:36 PM (#5612609)
I think if Edgar doesn't make it this year, then yes. If he does, though, I think Mussina is the third spot the following year.

And then in 2020 you have PEDmageddon, though I would be deeply amused by Jeter Clemens and Schilling all at once. Not calling them all PED.
   1663. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 24, 2018 at 02:37 PM (#5612610)
(1661) I predict 2019 is Mariano, Edgar, and Mussina.
   1664. Blastin Posted: January 24, 2018 at 02:47 PM (#5612623)
Halladay is definitely getting in.
   1665. Peter Farted Again Posted: January 24, 2018 at 02:57 PM (#5612637)
Schilling could be in trouble. He's trending sharply down which could be a sign of things to come, on the non-public ballots. Moreover, the time leading up to 2021 (possibly his best shot to get in) happens to be election time, and a certain mouth might be wide open.
   1666. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 24, 2018 at 03:08 PM (#5612652)
(1664) There might be four again next year.
   1667. Booey Posted: January 24, 2018 at 03:39 PM (#5612694)
I think next year will be 3 with Mo, Edgar, Doc. I suspect Moose has to wait until 2020. The lawn will be packed with Yankees fans...but all wearing #2.

Schilling goes in by himself in 2021.
   1668. Blastin Posted: January 24, 2018 at 03:43 PM (#5612702)
Schilling goes in by himself in 2021.


Clemens and Bonds would make this the most hated yet deserving induction ever. lol
   1669. SoSH U at work Posted: January 24, 2018 at 03:46 PM (#5612704)
Schilling goes in by himself in 2021.




Clemens and Bonds would make this the most hated yet deserving induction ever. lol

And we can only hope the choice from the Vet's Committee that meets that year - Dick Allen.
   1670. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 24, 2018 at 04:22 PM (#5612732)
Assuming Vlad, Chipper, Thome & Hoffman make it this year with Edgar just missing, and Rivera elected for 2019, with Halladay & Pettitte getting considerable support, that would still leave voters 7 votes for the remaining 2019 field, allowing voters to reach some of the lesser-worthies such as Walker, Kent or Rolen, if they are so inclined. Returning players who don't get a 2019 surge may be out of luck.
   1671. Ithaca2323 Posted: January 24, 2018 at 04:32 PM (#5612738)
Mussina was a +17 with returning voters two days ago. He's now a +25. He's really jumping up the ballot, and I think 2019 is increasingly likely
   1672. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 24, 2018 at 04:41 PM (#5612744)
This whole JOHAN SANTANA vs. ROY HALLADAY thing.....Their talent levels and accomplishments are basically the same.
They both had injury-shortened careers. The reason one is a first-ballot HOF and the other is receiving 1% of the
vote is 723.2 additional innings pitched.
I'm just trying to figure out how many more quality innings Santana would have needed to A) stay on the ballot for
ten years around the 20% mark (a la Fred McGriff) or B) make a slow climb like Mussina/Schilling and eventually get in.



   1673. taxandbeerguy Posted: January 24, 2018 at 04:42 PM (#5612745)
Mussina's been one of the biggest losers when it comes to private votes though. He's looking great at 70% now, but usually scores 20% lower on private votes. If that's the case he's in the low 60's this year, requiring another 12-15% jump for 2019. If the newcomers were say like 2021 (lack of great first year candidates, Buehrle, Hudson and Torii Hunter headline), I'd give him good odds, but think he's ends up in the low 70's for 2019 setting up for election in 2020 with Jeter. If he surprises and ends with 65%+ for 2018, then maybe he gets in, but much lower than 63%, I don't foresee quite enough support increase in one year (especially since Rivera, Halladay and Pettitte join, although Mussina stacks up really well compared to all three). His election path actually looks like it will be like Edgar's, albeit a year behind (probably because voters realized that Edgar was running out of time after 2016).
   1674. taxandbeerguy Posted: January 24, 2018 at 04:52 PM (#5612752)
@1672

I'm not certain Halladay's going in first ballot, despite what I said in #1673, he has narrative and awards over Mussina, but Mussina has so much more bulk at nearly as good rates. Halladay's great but wouldn't have fared as well in that CYA voting if he was competing with peak Pedro, Unit, Clemens and some top notch years from the likes of Kevin Appier, David Cone etc.

I'd suggest Santana needed A) to appear sometime after 2012 (preferably out to 2014) even if it was for only a couple of innings and he'd be safe. Wouldn't get a ton of votes, but would likely get 5%. Another season of 200IP at around a 120 ERA+ would probably put him over the line for me and two would keep him him in the 20-25% range I'd imagine. To get the climb he could probably use a third season at that level or at the very least an innings eating R.A. Dickey type of year (200IP ERA+ around 100).

Put Halladay on this ballot and I think he struggles for more than 60% even with his recent tragic passing.
   1675. Booey Posted: January 24, 2018 at 05:00 PM (#5612760)
I'm just trying to figure out how many more quality innings Santana would have needed to A) stay on the ballot for ten years around the 20% mark (a la Fred McGriff) or B) make a slow climb like Mussina/Schilling and eventually get in.


I think it's more about wins than innings. Obviously those things are related; I just doubt that voters have a specific HOF-worthy cutoff in mind for innings like I suspect they do for wins. 139 wins is just really damn low for a serious HOF candidate.

Maybe 175 or 180 wins lets him hang around on the ballot for a while. 200 wins and he works his way up to eventual election.

It's still crazy to me that Johan is already on a HOF ballot. He's the same age as me! He should have a few more good years left, not be 6 years past retirement!
   1676. kwarren Posted: January 24, 2018 at 05:04 PM (#5612763)
As for perhaps my penultimate unchecked box for Edgar Martinez, his counting numbers (309 homers, 2,247 hits) don't move the needle for a specialist in the way Hoffman's 601 saves (second all-time, 123 more than No. 3) do.

Using "saves" as a measure of excellence is sheer stupidity. Pitchers with 4.00+ ERAs can easily put up 40 or more saves, and that would make them well below average relievers. If you're the closer and your on a good team you will get a huge number of saves even if you're the worst pitcher in the major leagues. Saves are a measure of nothing (other than how a pitcher is used) and are absolutely meaningless. It was a silly idea to make irrelevant players seem important. Perhaps "Rolaids" came up with the concept and paid MLB to implement it to help their sales. Actually it was a 33 year old sportswriter, naturally, Jerome Holtzman, who came up with the concept in 1959, but it has been butchered badly since that time, particularly by MLB who decided to make it an official stat after the 1968 season and has kept making it worse in the following years. Here is a link to the whole sad sordid tale of woe:

https://www.mlb.com/news/how-save-rule-has-changed-baseball/c-223677902
   1677. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 24, 2018 at 05:11 PM (#5612767)
I just have a feeling that Mussina makes it next year. If you subtract Rivera and Halladay from this year's four
inductees, that's two extra slots for voters to play with. Vlady jumped about 20 points this year, so I can see
Mussina jumping 12 or 13 next year. I'm hoping that once Mussina and Halladay go in, Schilling will soon follow.
   1678. kwarren Posted: January 24, 2018 at 05:15 PM (#5612770)
139 wins is just really damn low for a serious HOF candidate.

Koufax had a very similar career (at least for regular season) but he finished his career on a trememdous high, after a horrible start. Santana was the reverse, so there is likely a recency effect in how they the voters remembered them. In addition Koufax played in a very pitcher friendly park, had great post-season success, played for the 2nd most renowned franchise in the game, and went out when he was on top. Unfortunately Johan had none of these things going for him.
   1679. DanG Posted: January 24, 2018 at 05:28 PM (#5612779)
Pitchers with 4.00+ ERAs can easily put up 40 or more saves
Highest ERA, 40+ saves

Player             ERA SV ERA+   IP Year  Tm
Joe Borowski      5.07 45   89 65.2 2007 CLE
Brian Wilson      4.62 41   95 62.1 2008 SFG
Antonio Alfonseca 4.24 45  104 70.0 2000 FLA
Bobby Jenks       4.00 41  119 69.2 2006 CHW
Danny Graves      3.95 41  108 68.1 2004 CIN
Brian Fuentes     3.93 48  112 55.0 2009 LAA
Lee Smith         3.88 46  103 58.0 1993 TOT
Francisco Cordero 3.84 40  106 72.2 2010 CIN
Addison Reed      3.79 40  111 71.1 2013 CHW
Armando Benitez   3.77 43  110 76.1 2001 NYM 
   1680. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 24, 2018 at 05:29 PM (#5612781)
If he surprises and ends with 65%+ for 2018, then maybe he gets in, but much lower than 63%, I don't foresee quite enough support increase in one year (especially since Rivera, Halladay and Pettitte join, although Mussina stacks up really well compared to all three).

I think that's about right. 65% this year makes Mussina a better than even bet to go in next year, IMHO. If he ends up below that, it begins to look like a two-year process. Mussina getting in next year would also contribute to clearing the ballot glut, and probably has many voters grudgingly admitting that there isn't a strong argument for treating Schilling differently.
   1681. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: January 24, 2018 at 05:34 PM (#5612782)
From the Seattle Times on their Sunday piece on Edgar:
“Edgar’s brain is always working. He’s such a thinker — that’s something I value in him. He’s not going to waste energy. We’re both going to treat that day as normal. If he gets the call, I’ll come home and we’ll get on a plane to New York. Until then, we have to proceed with business as usual.”
That's Edgar's wife, there. Kinda dumb for the guys on the bubble to not know, and then be expected to drop everything and jump on a plane if they get in. Does he get a call either way, or if it's a no, does he just find out like everyone else that he's not in?
The Oakland-based Thibodaux has experienced the Martinez passion first-hand — as has every writer who feels the scorn of Mariners fans when they post a ballot that doesn’t contain his name. Thibodaux says that of all the feedback he receives, “it’s probably half Edgar and half everybody else.”
Wait 'til next year :)
   1682. Moeball Posted: January 24, 2018 at 05:38 PM (#5612784)
Only a half hour to announcement and I'm nervous for Trevor and Edgar and hopeful for Moose (although I realize it's not happening this year).

I always love this time of year and hate it at the same time!

Cue Tim Curry and Carly Simon: antici...pation! (Sorry, giving away my age there!)
   1683. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 24, 2018 at 05:47 PM (#5612789)
(1676, 1679)) Does anyone remember SHAWN CHACON on the 2004 Rockies? He was a starter-turned closer who racked up 35 saves
with a sparkling 7.11 ERA (ERA+ of 70), 1.94 WHIP, and -1.5 WAR. He had a 1-9 record, seven of the losses coming on his
blown saves. He had two additional blown saves where he only gave up the tying run.
What a real quandry for fantasy baseball owners.
   1684. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 24, 2018 at 05:48 PM (#5612791)
12 minutes, folks! Hold on tight!
   1685. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 24, 2018 at 06:02 PM (#5612802)
The announcement was supposed to be 2 minutes ago. I don't see it on mlb.com
   1686. kwarren Posted: January 24, 2018 at 06:05 PM (#5612803)
Re #1679

The point is not that pitchers with 4.00+ ERA get 40 saves, simply that they would/could if given the opportunity. Most managers routinely use one of their best relievers to get saves, even though any pitcher could do the job. The most important relief pitching is just as often done in the 6th, 7th, & 8th innings as in the 9th. No reason to bring your best pitcher in the 9th inning to close out 4-1 games on back to back games, and then be unavailable in a 3-3 tie in the 9th inning in game #3. But that's the way things are done now.
   1687. Count Vorror Rairol Mencoon (CoB) Posted: January 24, 2018 at 06:05 PM (#5612804)
BBWAA.com isn't updated either.
   1688. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: January 24, 2018 at 06:06 PM (#5612806)
They need to run a couple commercials on the broadcast first, duh...
   1689. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 24, 2018 at 06:06 PM (#5612807)
Does anyone remember SHAWN CHACON on the 2004 Rockies? He was a starter-turned closer who racked up 35 saves
with a sparkling 7.11 ERA (ERA+ of 70), 1.94 WHIP, and -1.5 WAR. He had a 1-9 record, seven of the losses coming on his
blown saves. He had two additional blown saves where he only gave up the tying run.

Didn't he also lead the league in Choking His General Manager?

And no, that's not a euphemism.
   1690. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 24, 2018 at 06:07 PM (#5612808)
Isn't the official announcement on the MLB Network? They're doing the build-up - had a nice Intro narrated by Rod Carew - and I assume the actual announcement might be closer to 6:30 PM. Need to hold the audience!
   1691. kwarren Posted: January 24, 2018 at 06:08 PM (#5612809)
' '
   1692. Moeball Posted: January 24, 2018 at 06:10 PM (#5612813)
Does anyone remember SHAWN CHACON on the 2004 Rockies? He was a starter-turned closer who racked up 35 saves
with a sparkling 7.11 ERA (ERA+ of 70), 1.94 WHIP, and -1.5 WAR. He had a 1-9 record, seven of the losses coming on his
blown saves. He had two additional blown saves where he only gave up the tying run.


I know that is bad, but in context, in the land of Coors Field 2004, an ERA over 7 isn't all that outrageous.

After all, Greg Maddux had a career ERA of 5.19 at Coors in 85 innings per Bref, and he was the most extreme groundball pitcher of his time - in other words, the type of pitcher LEAST likely to get hurt by Coors Field, and he still had an ERA over 5 there, so other pitchers who give up more flyballs are really going to get killed there.

OK, looked up Chacon's splits for 2004 - expected to see an ERA of only 4 on the road and an ERA of about 10 at home, but actually, his split was an 8 at Coors and over 6 on the road, so you're right, that's pretty bad!
   1693. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 24, 2018 at 06:11 PM (#5612814)
 1691. kwarren Posted: January 24, 2018 at 06:08 PM (#5612809)
' '


I saw what you wrote earlier...
   1694. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: January 24, 2018 at 06:11 PM (#5612815)
Using "saves" as a measure of excellence is sheer stupidity. Pitchers with 4.00+ ERAs can easily put up 40 or more saves, and that would make them well below average relievers. If you're the closer and your on a good team you will get a huge number of saves even if you're the worst pitcher in the major leagues.

I will preface this by saying that I don't think most people on this board are using saves as a significant part of their Hall of Fame argument for anyone, or as the best indicator of how good a reliever is, or anything like that.

That said, you are overselling your point; most of the time, a closer with 40+-saves has had a very good year for a closer. (Whether you give much weight to a good closer season is up to you.)

Just for... well, not fun exactly, but curiosity... there have been 168 40-save seasons in MLB history. Here is the list of all of the pitchers who have had at least one, along with the highest ERA they posted in a 40-save season. (The list is sorted by career high in saves because I used the single-season saves leaderboard on B-R to make it.)
K-Rod: 6 times, highest ERA 3.24
Thigpen: Once (1.83)
Gagne: 3 times (2.19)
Smoltz: 3 times (3.25)
Hoffman: 9 times (3.43)
Randy Myers: 2 times (3.11)
Rivera: 9 times (2.34)
Rod Beck: 2 times (3.02)
Eckersley: 4 times (2.96)
Familia: 2 times (2.55)
Jim Johnson: 2 times (2.94)
Melancon: 2 times (2.23)
Kimbrel: 4 times (2.10)
Francisco Cordero: 3 times (3.84)
Valverde: 3 times (3.38)
Fuentes: Once (3.93)
Rodney: 2 times (2.85)
Rosenthal: 2 times (3.20)
Jeff Shaw: 3 times (3.62)
Brian Wilson: 2 times (4.62)
Heath Bell: 3 times (2.71)
Benitez: 3 times (3.77)
Britton: Once (0.54)
Alex Colome: Once (3.24)
Chad Cordero: Once (1.82)
Greg Holland: 3 times (3.61)
Isringhausen: Once (2.87)
Kenley Jansen: 3 times (2.76)
Joe Nathan: 4 times (2.70)
Lee Smith: 3 times (3.88). Caveat for Smith - one of his 40-save seasons was in a year in which he was traded; he had over 40 saves and a 4.50 ERA before the trade, but pulled his full-season ERA below 4 after the trade.
John Axford: Once (1.95)
Tom Gordon: Once (2.72)
Bryan Harvey: 2 times (1.70)
Mesa: 4 times (3.25)
Righetti: Once (2.45)
Mike Williams: Once (2.93)
Alfonseca: Once (4.24)
Joe Borowski: Once (5.07)
Guardado: 2 times (2.93)
Jeff Montgomery: Once (2.27)
Robb Nen: 4 times (3.01)
JJ Putz: 2 times (2.17)
Quisenberry: 2 times (2.64)
Kazuhiro Sasaki: Once (3.24)
Rafael Soriano: 3 times (3.11)
Sutter: Once (1.54)
Duane Ward: Once (2.13)
Bob Wickman: Once (2.47)
Jeff Brantley: Once (2.41)
Mark Davis: Once (1.85)
Billy Koch: Once (3.27)
Wagner: 2 times (2.24)
Todd Worrell: Once (3.03)
Foulke: 2 times (2.33)
Roberto Hernandez: Once (3.07)
Doug Jones: Once (2.56)
Joakim Soria: 2 times (1.78)
Drew Storen: Once (2.75)
John Wetteland: 4 times (3.68)
Mitch Williams: Once (3.34)
Rick Aguilera: 2 times (2.84)
Matt Capps: Once (2.47)
Todd Jones: 2 times (3.52)
Brad Lidge: 2 times (2.29)
Derek Lowe: Once (2.56)
Jason Motte: Once (2.75)
Troy Percival: 2 times (3.65)
Reardon: 3 times (3.18)
Danys Baez: Once (2.86)
Brad Boxberger: Once (3.71)
Danny Graves: Once (3.95)
Bobby Jenks: 2 times (4.00)
Jose Jimenez: Once (3.56)
Papelbon: Once (2.34)
Huston Street: 2 times (3.18)
Urbina: 2 times (3.69)
Steve Bedrosian: Once (2.83)
Neftali Feliz: Once (2.73)
Joel Hanrahan: Once (1.83)
Tom Henke: Once (2.91)
Michael Jackson: Once (1.55)
AJ Ramos: Once (2.81)
Addison Reed: Once (3.79)

I count somewhere from 4-5 ERAs of 4+ on that list (depending on how you feel about Lee Smith's 1993). Out of a sample of 168, I wouldn't exactly call that a common event. (Which makes sense, because usually if you don't pitch well, you don't stick around as the closer. The "worst pitcher in the major leagues" wouldn't be the closer for a good team to begin with.)

(Bonus note: Bobby Jenks's 4.00 ERA in 2006 was not actually "well below average"; AL relievers posted a 4.25 ERA as a whole that year, and the White Sox played in a hitter's park.)
   1695. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: January 24, 2018 at 06:13 PM (#5612816)
(1689) I never heard that choking story !! Man, that's a really poor decision that young man made !!
   1696. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: January 24, 2018 at 06:22 PM (#5612820)
Sigh. 70.4.
   1697. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 24, 2018 at 06:22 PM (#5612821)
Not this year for Edgar. Johan's one and done.
   1698. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: January 24, 2018 at 06:24 PM (#5612822)
Chipper, Thome, Vlad, Hofman get in--not Edgar
   1699. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 24, 2018 at 06:26 PM (#5612824)
kwarren was wrong in his since deleted post. Hoffman made it. Martinez looks like a lock for next year, crossing the 70% thresh hold. Mussina is probably 2 years away.
   1700. bachslunch Posted: January 24, 2018 at 06:27 PM (#5612825)
Congratulations to Chipper, Thome, Vlad, and Hoffman. Anybody got the voting percentages?
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