Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Ryan Thibs has his HOF Ballot Tracker Up and Running!

Ryan has received his first official ballot, courtesy of Adam Rubib. Ten votes, including Vizquel.

So who gets a higher percentage of vote this year, Trammell with the VC or Vizquel with the BBWAA? (Only partly a tongue-in-cheek question…)

TJ Posted: November 22, 2017 at 02:48 PM | 1774 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 4 of 18 pages ‹ First  < 2 3 4 5 6 >  Last ›
   301. The Duke Posted: December 09, 2017 at 11:57 AM (#5589242)
I’m sure the Thibs ballot influences people. First it helps identify people like Sheffield who may be falling below 5%. It also probably freaked out people who like vizquel and were going to vote for him and then realized he could be inner circle if they did.
   302. shoewizard Posted: December 09, 2017 at 06:28 PM (#5589412)
So Thome is going in first ballot , huh ?
   303. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: December 09, 2017 at 11:44 PM (#5589469)
Sure, I like John Smoltz. But there's no way he deserves the HOF more than Curt Schilling.
The voters really liked Smoltz the closer.

Schilling's top WAR seasons = 8.8 / 8.7 / 7.9 / 6.3 / 6.2 / 6.0 / 5.9 / 5.5 / 5.1 / 4.9 / 4.9
Smoltz's top WAR seasons = 7.3 / 5.9 / 5.4 / 4.9 / 4.8 / 4.6 / 4.4 / 4.2 / 3.7 / 3.6 / 3.6
   304. homerwannabee Posted: December 10, 2017 at 11:09 AM (#5589518)
Surprised that Johan Santana has still not received a single vote. At this rate he might not get 5%. Has there ever been any pitcher who has won 2 Cy Young Awards that hasn't gotten 5% their first time out? If he doesn't get 5% I'd consider him the best pitcher in a long time not to get 5% their first time out. Yeah, his career was short, but still. He led the league in ERA+ three years in a row. Led the league in ERA three times. Made the top 5 in Cy Young voting five straight years. Led the league in strike outs 3 years in a row. Got a Triple Crown in pitching in 2006. Most wins, lowest ERA, and Most Strike outs. His five year WAR peak is 35.4. To average a 7 WAR for five straight years is really, really good. No, Johan is no Pedro Martinez, but Pedro was elected on the first ballot with 91% of the vote.
A good argument can be made that Johan isn't a Hall of Famer, but I don't think a good argument can be made that he doesn't deserve 5% of the vote. He at least deserves to have people discuss his candidacy.

Now as far as Omar Vizquel. The major thing in his favor is he has 11 gold gloves in a prime defensive position. Offensively, yeah, his 82 OPS is shockingly low, but he does have more hits than Babe Ruth. Back in the day, those players who had no shot at 3000 still wanted to get past Ruth. I remember Buckner having that goal, but failing to do so of course. Every single player that was not on PEDs, or didn't bet on baseball who has more hits than Ruth is in the Hall of Fame. Also he did miss around 70 games because of the strikes of 1994, 1995. Those strikes don't happen, and he has over 2930 hits, and maybe someone lets him hobble his way to the 3000 hit mark? One last thing. He's in the top 10 in Defensive WAR all time. I know Bellinger has a much better defensive WAR than Vizquel, but Bellinger never was able to get 1500 hits, and had an OPS of 68. So yeah, people put a value on a guy who has twice as many hits. That shouldn't be too shocking.
   305. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: December 10, 2017 at 11:14 AM (#5589522)
2014-2020 HOF Classes

1- Pedro Martinez
2- Randy Johnson (L)
3- Greg Maddux
4- John Smoltz
5- Tom Glavine (L)

Mariano Rivera (CL) / Trevor Hoffman

1- Tim Raines..(S).......LF
2- Chipper Jones..(S)...3B
3- Frank Thomas.........DH
4- Ken Griffey,Jr..(L)....CF
5- Jeff Bagwell............1B
6- Vladimir Guerrero....RF
7- Derek Jeter............SS
8- Ivan Rodriguez.......C
9- Craig Biggio...........2B

Mike Piazza......C
Jim Thome....1B-DH

This is only my opinion.
Thank you for your time.
   306. SoSH U at work Posted: December 10, 2017 at 11:24 AM (#5589525)
Has there ever been any pitcher who has won 2 Cy Young Awards that hasn't gotten 5% their first time out?


Bret Saberhagen.
   307. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: December 10, 2017 at 11:28 AM (#5589527)
The voters really liked Smoltz the closer.


As in many HOF discussions, there is a divide between those who see reliever/closer as a position, and those who do not (see Hoffman, Trevor). If closer is a position, then Smoltz is one of a relatively few players in history who excelled at two positions (see Eckersley, Dennis).
   308. SoSH U at work Posted: December 10, 2017 at 11:31 AM (#5589529)
If closer is a position, then Smoltz is one of a relatively few players in history who excelled at two positions (see Eckersley, Dennis).


Yeah, I think what allowed Smoltz to distinguish himself with the voters was his time as a closer made him look like a better version of Eck (which, in fact, he was). They weren't comparing him with the other starters (either the locks who were better than him, or the guys he was most directly comparable to, Mussina and Schilling).

   309. SoSH U at work Posted: December 10, 2017 at 11:40 AM (#5589532)
Has there ever been any pitcher who has won 2 Cy Young Awards that hasn't gotten 5% their first time out?


Also, Denny McLain was on three ballots, but he never received more than 1 percent of the vote.

   310. taxandbeerguy Posted: December 10, 2017 at 12:15 PM (#5589544)
2014-2020 HOF Classes

1- Pedro Martinez
2- Randy Johnson (L)
3- Greg Maddux
4- John Smoltz
5- Tom Glavine (L)

Mariano Rivera (CL) / Trevor Hoffman

1- Tim Raines..(S).......LF
2- Chipper Jones..(S)...3B
3- Frank Thomas.........DH
4- Ken Griffey,Jr..(L)....CF
5- Jeff Bagwell............1B
6- Vladimir Guerrero....RF
7- Derek Jeter............SS
8- Ivan Rodriguez.......C
9- Craig Biggio...........2B

Mike Piazza......C
Jim Thome....1B-DH

This is only my opinion.
Thank you for your time.


I suspect a team composed of these guys would have won a lot of games between 1990 and 2005 or so. Maybe 8-10 World Series?

Throw Roy Halladay in as a spot starter / long guy and Edgar Martinez as another bat off the bench (or 3B for 1990-94) and this would be most formidable.
   311. Booey Posted: December 10, 2017 at 12:48 PM (#5589553)
Has there ever been any pitcher who has won 2 Cy Young Awards that hasn't gotten 5% their first time out?

Bret Saberhagen.

Also, Denny McLain was on three ballots, but he never received more than 1 percent of the vote.


I don't expect Lincecum to get much support, either.

If he doesn't get 5% I'd consider him the best pitcher in a long time not to get 5% their first time out.


I'd go with Kevin Brown. Comparable peak, better career.

Every single player that was not on PEDs, or didn't bet on baseball who has more hits than Ruth is in the Hall of Fame.


Yeah, but Harold Baines (who's got a comparable HOF case to Vizquel), is only 7 hits behind Ruth and 11 behind Vizquel. He's got the most RBI and total bases of anyone who's not in the HOF, will be in the HOF, or would have been in the HOF if not for PED's/gambling. And if Vizquel gets in, you can add hits to that list, too. By definition SOMEONE has to hold these distinctions. Above average regulars who just lasted forever seem like exactly the type of player you'd expect to hold these 'records.' It doesn't make them HOFers.
   312. Peter Farted Again Posted: December 10, 2017 at 12:56 PM (#5589557)
Ballot #33 from Amalie Benjamin: Guerrero, Hoffman, Jones, Martinez, Mussina, Rolen, Schilling, Thome, Wagner, Walker.

Random, likely Bonds/Clemens-supporting Twitter user: "Your ballet sucks."

Benjamin: "Honestly, I stalled out in ballet in preschool, so it's really not that surprising."
   313. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: December 10, 2017 at 01:11 PM (#5589562)
That ballot definitely doesn't suck, but why does she gets to vote 33 times?
   314. bachslunch Posted: December 10, 2017 at 03:06 PM (#5589593)
Benjamin’s ballot is very good if you’re anti-PED. Maybe swapping out Andruw for Wagner would be an improvement, but otherwise fine. There’s also no. Vizquel, another plus. Especially given some of the bad ballots we’ve seen.
   315. shoewizard Posted: December 10, 2017 at 03:32 PM (#5589601)
Who are these guys

ERA+    ERA  FIP    WPA   SV%    K%  BB%     IP    G GS BAbip  HR HBP
187    2.31 2.73 29.067 85.9
33.28.3%  903.0  853  0  .265  82  33
151    2.87 3.36 30.601 89.1
25.99.1%  923.1  787 29  .261  84  23
141    2.87 3.08 34.153 88.8
25.87.01089.1 1035  0  .266 100   9 


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/10/2017.
   316. Downing Almost Deserves It Posted: December 10, 2017 at 03:42 PM (#5589612)
#315

Is this a Joe Nathan argument? Loved Nathan and would say he's neck and neck with Hoffman. But they're both so far below what I think is a reasonable Hall standard. With so few innings, you need to be even greater than these guys were.
   317. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 10, 2017 at 03:52 PM (#5589617)
[305] The 1998 version of that team would win 120 games easily. With that said, I’d imagine that plenty of six year spans of Hall of Famers look really good.
   318. shoewizard Posted: December 10, 2017 at 06:11 PM (#5589669)
Is this a Joe Nathan argument? Loved Nathan and would say he's neck and neck with Hoffman. But they're both so far below what I think is a reasonable Hall standard. With so few innings, you need to be even greater than these guys were.


Wagner/Nathan/Hoffman there.

Agree none of them would get my HOF vote.

Point being SD low run scoring environment, and a lot of low scoring teams, so a lot of save chances for Hoffman. But the actual quality of these 3 pitchers, not much to choose from, but arguably the one going into the HOF, maybe this year, is no better than the other 2, and maybe worse and the other 2 won't even get a whiff.
   319. Downing Almost Deserves It Posted: December 10, 2017 at 06:16 PM (#5589672)
To me, like Chris Speier, Bill Russell, and Omar Vizquel, Nathan, Hoffman, and Wagner are fairly indistinguishable. None of the six are remotely eligible for the Hall.
   320. reech Posted: December 10, 2017 at 06:24 PM (#5589676)
Congratulations to Alan Trammell and Jack Morris! #motown #hof
   321. Rennie's Tenet Posted: December 10, 2017 at 06:27 PM (#5589678)
It will be nice to have 5 or 6 inductees who are still close to their playing days.
   322. bachslunch Posted: December 10, 2017 at 06:44 PM (#5589693)
Trammell and Morris. Well, they got one right at least. Frankly, that’s better than I thought it would go (was afraid it would just be the latter). Voting, with 12 needed for election:

Morris: 14
Trammell: 13
Simmons: 11
Miller: 7

The rest got fewer votes. Simmons unfortunately missed by only one vote.

https://baseballhall.org/news/modern-era-ballot-results-2018

   323. Peter Farted Again Posted: December 10, 2017 at 07:09 PM (#5589703)
Oh man. The anti-Schilling bias at mlb.com is REAL.

On the page describing the 2018 ballot, they list stats for all the major candidates EXCEPT Schilling, who they only mention is "on the ballot for a sixth time."

On their main HOF coverage page, they highlight various candidates and group them by team. Most of the biggies don't have to share a headline -
for example, Edgar gets his own space, with fellow Mariner Jamie Moyer only mentioned as an also-ran in the main article. Schilling's headline (D-backs) is lumped in with Livan Hernandez and Orlando Hudson, and he isn't even mentioned in the Red Sox headline (only Damon is).

I think someone hate he...
   324. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: December 10, 2017 at 07:15 PM (#5589704)
Selig in, Morris in. Vizquel lookin' real good. Now all we need is an etching of Clemens, Bonds and the chain-rattling ghost of Marvin Miller standing outside in the falling snow, peering through the window. The Very Possible Dream is going to come true!
   325. Ziggy's screen name Posted: December 10, 2017 at 09:41 PM (#5589806)
Stupid pointless trivia time. First player born in decade X elected to hall of fame. Decade/player/election year

1850s - Old Hoss Radbourn/Buck Ewing/Cap Anson - 1939
1860s - Cy Young - 1937
1870s - Honus Wagner - 1936
1880s - Ty Cobb/Walter Johnson/Christy Mathewson - 1936
1890s - Babe Ruth - 1936
1900s - Lou Gehrig - 1939
1910s - Dizzy Dean - 1953
1920s - Stan Musial - 1969
1930s - Sandy Koufax - 1972
1940s - Catfish Hunter - 1987
1950s - Robin Yount - 1999
1960s - Kirby Pucket - 2001
1970s - Pedro Martinez - 2015

So who is going to be the first player from the 1980s elected? How about the 1990s?
   326. taxandbeerguy Posted: December 10, 2017 at 10:06 PM (#5589823)
@325

1840s - Deacon White - 2013 Although Candy Cummings has plenty of playing time and was elected in 1939, he went in as a builder (inventor)of sorts. The Hall of Merit goes back to the 1830's with the incomparable Dickey Pearce too.
   327. ajnrules Posted: December 10, 2017 at 10:11 PM (#5589826)
So who is going to be the first player from the 1980s elected? How about the 1990s?

I'm going to go with Clayton Kershaw and Mike Trout.
   328. cardsfanboy Posted: December 10, 2017 at 10:18 PM (#5589830)
I'm going to go with Clayton Kershaw and Mike Trout.


Albert Pujols for the 80's.
   329. Baldrick Posted: December 10, 2017 at 10:41 PM (#5589847)
So who is going to be the first player from the 1980s elected? How about the 1990s?

80s: Pujols seems the best bet. He's close to done, and will be an easy first balloter once his five years are up.
   330. Booey Posted: December 10, 2017 at 10:58 PM (#5589851)
1950s - Robin Yount - 1999


George Brett too.

I'm going to go with Clayton Kershaw and Mike Trout.


Kershaw was born in 1988 and is still just 29 years old. There's going to be several players born 1980-1987 going in before him (pretty much all the first ballot types currently in their 30's - Cabrera, Cano, etc).
   331. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: December 10, 2017 at 11:33 PM (#5589859)
Benjamin’s ballot is very good if you’re anti-PED. Maybe swapping out Andruw for Wagner would be an improvement, but otherwise fine. There’s also no. Vizquel, another plus. Especially given some of the bad ballots we’ve seen.

Any ballot that includes Rolen and leaves off Vizquel gets a lot of credit from me at this point. (Which is kind of sad, because... does anyone actually think Omar Vizquel was a better baseball player than Scott Rolen? But here we are.)
   332. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: December 11, 2017 at 12:49 AM (#5589877)
(pretty much all the first ballot types currently in their 30's - Cabrera, Cano, etc


Eh, I'll give you Miggy as a 1st ballot type easy. Cano's body of work still needs to be worked on to be anywhere near 1st ballot. I think he's a HOFer now, but getting closer to 3000 hits and keeping that shiny .300 BA will go a long, long way to being 1st ballot.
   333. Baldrick Posted: December 11, 2017 at 10:55 AM (#5589997)
37 votes in, which means we've got approximately 10% of the electorate. Big winners:
- Larry Walker, who is up six (!) votes. That level of growth probably won't sustain itself over the whole electorate, but if he can move up from 22% into the low or mid 30s, that might give him some momentum in his final two years. He'll never get elected by the writers directly, but a stronger showing at the end might help him get through a different door.
- Edgar Martinez, who is up a net of four votes. A gain of four from 37 votes implies an overall gain of ~10% at the end of the day. If that holds, he'll very likely make it on his last ballot, especially given the number of people who have listed him as a casualty of the 10 vote limit. In his final year--and on a less crowded ballot--he'll probably get those votes.
- Vlad Guerrero, who is up four votes, and seems like a lock to make it this year, after missing by just 3% last year.
- Curt Schilling, who is up three votes, after keeping his mouth (relatively) shut lately. He and Mussina still both seem likely to make it eventually, though they'll probably take until their final couple ballots to actually get there.

Other things of note:
- Hoffman is at a net of 0, gaining two but losing two others. He only needs to pick up ~5 votes from the whole electorate, and it seems impossible to imagine he won't get them somewhere. But at least so far, he hasn't made any gains.
- Of the new guys, Andruw Jones and Scott Rolen are almost certain to make 5%, but probably won't start particularly strong. Still, keeping them on the ballot will be good. Might give them a chance to grow a bit over the years. No votes for Johan Santana yet, which isn't shocking, but still surprises me a bit. He's almost certain to get five-percented. Vizquel has faded a bit from his scorching start, but is 17/37, and seems very likely to at least be in the 30s or 40s. Which...yeah, I don't get it. then there's Chipper Jones (35/37) and Jim Thome (36/37), who are basically certainties at this point.
- Combining the new guys (Chipper and Thome) with the likely holdovers (Vlad and Hoffman), we're looking at a class of four inductees.
   334. SoSH U at work Posted: December 11, 2017 at 11:02 AM (#5590010)
- Combining the new guys (Chipper and Thome) with the likely holdovers (Vlad and Hoffman), we're looking at a class of four inductees


Combining them with the Vets picks, we're looking at a six pack.
   335. gabrielthursday Posted: December 11, 2017 at 11:09 AM (#5590026)
The bizarre thing about Vizquel to me is that he isn't actually close to the best defensive shortstop - and he isn't even the best defensive player on the current ballot (Andruw Jones). If you're making a special dispensation for extraordinary defensive ability, shouldn't it actually be extraordinary? Yes, he was very good, not only are Ozzie, Belanger ahead of him, so too are such luminaries as Travis Jackson, Bobby Wallace and Rey Sanchez.
   336. Booey Posted: December 11, 2017 at 11:37 AM (#5590078)
The bizarre thing about Vizquel to me is that he isn't actually close to the best defensive shortstop - and he isn't even the best defensive player on the current ballot (Andruw Jones).


Longevity gave Vizquel a high hit total, and I think that's getting him a lot more credit for his offense than the numbers warrant. It's seemed to make some people forget that his hitting was actually the weak spot in his game for his entire career. Voters are ranking him as close to the best defensive shortstop ever, and a pretty good hitter to boot.

He'd be a deserving HOFer if both those things were true, but they're not.
   337. Baldrick Posted: December 11, 2017 at 03:44 PM (#5590360)
38th ballot is ANOTHER gain for Walker. That's really impressive. At the moment, he has six returning voters and seven new ones.
   338. Rally Posted: December 11, 2017 at 04:07 PM (#5590379)
80s: Pujols seems the best bet. He's close to done, and will be an easy first balloter once his five years are up.


Pujols is the best candidate. If not him, maybe Joe Mauer? That could happen if:

A) The Angels let Pujols keep playing out his contract
B) Mauer has a bad year and retires after his contract ends at the end of 2018
C) Voters put Mauer in quickly

Looking at pitchers, Sabathia could be a candidate. Pujols is the only first ballot lock, but a big part of it is who retires first and gets on the ballot.
   339. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 11, 2017 at 05:22 PM (#5590416)
Hoffman is at a net of 0, gaining two but losing two others. He only needs to pick up ~5 votes from the whole electorate, and it seems impossible to imagine he won't get them somewhere. But at least so far, he hasn't made any gains.

Hoffman is now down one, gaining 2, but losing 3. Only needed 5 more votes for election last year, so he probably can make it just on the relatively few voters that continue to maintain the First Ballot Is Special tradition. Hoffman is certainly not the strongest case, but I'm a bit surprised that folks would vote for him in his 1st year then promptly abandon him when he's so close to being elected. Perhaps those are strategic voters who thought someone else needed their vote more, but the purpose is to elect people, and having Hoffman gobble up ~ 300 votes without being elected does make it more difficult for more worthy possibilities. Electing 4 this year may be necessary to clear the ballot space needed to put Edgar Martinez in next year on his final year of eligibility.
   340. cardsfanboy Posted: December 11, 2017 at 07:29 PM (#5590485)
Cano's body of work still needs to be worked on to be anywhere near 1st ballot. I think he's a HOFer now, but getting closer to 3000 hits and keeping that shiny .300 BA will go a long, long way to being 1st ballot.


Seriously? He's just playing for the counting stats now, he just completed his age 34 season(which was his 8th all star year) he has 2376 career hits, he has 5 gold gloves, he's received votes for MVP 8 times, has 65.7 career war, is locked into a contract until 2023, has 289 hr as a second baseman(301 for his career) and will probably retire with more than 377 that is the record at the position.... For him to not be a hofer, he would have to basically repeat what Albert Pujols did last year, and do it another 5 times while claiming to be healthy. He's a hit by bus candidate right now.

Bill James HOf monitor has him at 155(average for hofer is 100)
Hof standards at 46 average hofer is 50. (and that is just going to go up even if he isn't particularly good going forward)

Cano is about as locked into the hof as any player in the game right now. (assuming a Dale Murphy level of decline even)

   341. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: December 11, 2017 at 09:39 PM (#5590508)
Seriously? He's just playing for the counting stats now, he just completed his age 34 season(which was his 8th all star year) he has 2376 career hits, he has 5 gold gloves, he's received votes for MVP 8 times, has 65.7 career war, is locked into a contract until 2023, has 289 hr as a second baseman(301 for his career) and will probably retire with more than 377 that is the record at the position.... For him to not be a hofer, he would have to basically repeat what Albert Pujols did last year, and do it another 5 times while claiming to be healthy. He's a hit by bus candidate right now.

Bill James HOf monitor has him at 155(average for hofer is 100)
Hof standards at 46 average hofer is 50. (and that is just going to go up even if he isn't particularly good going forward)

Cano is about as locked into the hof as any player in the game right now. (assuming a Dale Murphy level of decline even)


WTF are you going on about mate? Did you even read the sentence of mine you quoted? I never said he wasn't a HOFer. I said he's probably not 1st ballot material at this stage if he retired right now as compared to Miggy. I'd vote for him(as I've stated already), but I don't think the electorate would put him in 1st ballot if he retired before the season(yes, I know about the contract, etc.)
Also, it's a real shame when every statement has to be overqualified because another poster takes a quote out of context and rambles on incessantly about something on which we actually agree.
   342. The Duke Posted: December 11, 2017 at 10:13 PM (#5590517)
Vizquel has more hits than Ruth and played better defense. What more do you need to know?
   343. cardsfanboy Posted: December 11, 2017 at 10:22 PM (#5590522)
WTF are you going on about mate? Did you even read the sentence of mine you quoted? I never said he wasn't a HOFer. I said he's probably not 1st ballot material at this stage if he retired right now as compared to Miggy. I'd vote for him(as I've stated already), but I don't think the electorate would put him in 1st ballot if he retired before the season(yes, I know about the contract, etc.)
Also, it's a real shame when every statement has to be overqualified because another poster takes a quote out of context and rambles on incessantly about something on which we actually agree.


The issue is the first ballot qualifier, which really has no meaning. I mean Lou Brock is a first balloter, Yogi Berra is not. That tells you all you need to know about the "first ballot" qualifier.

If Cano Pulls a Kirby Puckett or Thruman Munson today, he's in the hof on his first ballot. If he has anything resembling a normal decline phase, he's in on the first ballot. If he has a Pujols level of decline phase but sticks around because of the contract, he is in on the first ballot.

The only two ways he doesn't make it on the first ballot is if he retires the same year that Pujols, Kershaw, Mauer, Molina, Posey, Beltre, Cabrera.... retire. Or if he gets popped taking ped's. (mind you, if he Oj simpsons someone, he's 50/50 to get in, but if he votes for a Republican while being an outright ######### then he might struggle a bit.
   344. Baldrick Posted: December 11, 2017 at 10:31 PM (#5590529)
Cano right now is basically Robbie Alomar the year before he cratered. Alomar missed out on being first ballot by just a couple points. My sense is that Cano has a tiny bit more 'buzz' to him than Alomar did, but they're probably pretty close either way. And, of course, Alomar seems to have been punished by a few people for the spitting incident, while Cano has nothing like that.

I'd say that Cano is probably a first ballot guy unless he is truly terrible AND sticks around for 4-5 more years BUT is injured enough that he isn't able to rack up any real progress on his counting stats. Even if he replicates Alomar, that's still 300 more hits (putting him at ~2700), and he'll disappear quickly enough that there won't be much time to do serious damage to his legacy.
   345. PreservedFish Posted: December 11, 2017 at 10:32 PM (#5590530)
I'm with Hugh Jordan. Cano is not a first ballot lock.
   346. PreservedFish Posted: December 11, 2017 at 10:43 PM (#5590542)
My sense is that Cano has a tiny bit more 'buzz' to him than Alomar did, but they're probably pretty close either way. And, of course, Alomar seems to have been punished by a few people for the spitting incident, while Cano has nothing like that.


I don't agree with this. Cano has 8 All-Star games, which is impressive. Alomar had 8 before he turned 30. Alomar established himself as "future HOF" player when he was about 24 years old. And a postseason stud at the same age.

No, Cano never spit on anyone. But he did get an awful lot of flak for not hustling. I could be wrong, but he seems to be lacking in signature moments. Woeful postseason numbers so far. Cano is less of the "you're watching a future Hall of Famer, kid" and more of the "Huh, he's been pretty great for like ten years, right? I guess he might be over the line now" variety.
   347. Downing Almost Deserves It Posted: December 11, 2017 at 11:13 PM (#5590545)
Wow, Cano has been awful in the playoffs. Yet he still has a better October OPS than Omar Vizquel.
   348. gabrielthursday Posted: December 12, 2017 at 01:44 AM (#5590579)
Cano has more work to do to get to a first-ballot selection, I think. If he pulled a Chone Figgins and collapsed, I think there's a slight chance he doesn't get elected by the BBWAA at all. There is a big differential between his value between Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference (52 WAR vs. 66 WAR). With B-R, he's just about a lock; with Fangraphs, he needs another couple productive years at least.
   349. The Duke Posted: December 12, 2017 at 08:52 AM (#5590614)
Aside from the fact that a team would probably not put someone out there every year with neagative WAR, what if Albert Pujols plays out the string and outs up a negative 10-15 WAR. Does that start to taint his accomplishments? Does it impact his inner-circle argument?
   350. Adam Starblind Posted: December 12, 2017 at 09:16 AM (#5590626)
Second baseman have long been underappreciated by Hall voters. Who was the last to go in on the first-ballot? Joe Morgan?

Not impossible, but I don't see it as a slam dunk that Cano will do better than Alomar, Biggio, or Sandberg (not to mention Whittaker and Grich).
   351. Rally Posted: December 12, 2017 at 01:46 PM (#5590896)
what if Albert Pujols plays out the string and outs up a negative 10-15 WAR. Does that start to taint his accomplishments? Does it impact his inner-circle argument?


He's still first ballot, that would knock him down to 85-90 WAR. Is he still inner circle? He'd end up 4th in WAR (he's currently 2nd) for 1B behind Gehrig, Foxx, Anson. But 4 years of crappy, full-time, 2017 caliber play would also mean 3400+ hits, 700+ homers, and maybe even breaking Aaron's RBI record (379 away). So yeah, he's still inner circle.

I don't think there's much chance of that, especially now that Ohtani is in the mix for DH at bats. Pujols is either more healthy and productive, or the playing time drops from here on out.
   352. Ithaca2323 Posted: December 12, 2017 at 02:12 PM (#5590919)
Not impossible, but I don't see it as a slam dunk that Cano will do better than Alomar, Biggio, or Sandberg (not to mention Whittaker and Grich).


Well, I don't really see what Grich and Whitaker have to do with anything, given that the BBWAA voting bodies not only have nearly different makeups, but are also using different methods—not exclusively, but in larger numbers than before.

And I'd have to think that the subsequent inclusion of Alomar and Biggio will make Cano's case stronger. He's already passed Biggio in bWar, and is just behind Alomar. His counting numbers should dwarf them as well.

It's hard to know how to apply Biggio to Cano, honestly. On the one hand, he debuted at 68% on a much, much, much deeper ballot than Cano probably will. But the guys not voting for Bonds/Clemens because of PEDs probably freed up some spots for him.

My gut tells me he fills his career out nicely, and 75 WAR/3,000/400 plus a cleared ballot means 1st ballot induction
   353. Ithaca2323 Posted: December 12, 2017 at 02:21 PM (#5590928)
It's interesting watching the progress of players on the tracker.

Edgar is now a net +6 among returning voters. Could he make a big enough leap this year?

Hoffman is -1. I mean, it would be unprecedented for him to go backward from 74%, and when you're at 74%, there's only so many pickup opportunities, but that's mildly disconcerting, if you want Hoffman in—whether you think he's deserving or just want to clear the ballot.

Vlad is +6, and is probably going to make up the 15 he missed by last year pretty easily.

Walker is +8, which is pretty astounding considering he was only +17 all last year.

Getting four in via the BBWAA is still looking very likely, and I'm almost ready to get excited about Edgar making it 5
   354. TDF, trained monkey Posted: December 12, 2017 at 02:33 PM (#5590940)
[305] The 1998 version of that team would win 120 games easily.
The best lineups would score just under 6.85 r/g; swap Bonds for Raines (Raines and Thomas hurt the team with relatively bad seasons), and you're up to 7.14 r/g. The actual 108-game winning Yankees scored 5.96 r/g.

There aren't any relievers there, but the 5 listed starters allowed 3.07 r/9. Substitute Clemens for Johnson, and you're down to 2.91 r/9. The actual 106-game winning Braves allowed 3.59 r/g.

By pythag, the team in 305 would win over 83% of its games - 135; with Bonds and Clemens, they would win 4 more. A team that hit like the '98 Yankees and pitched like the '98 Braves would win 119 games.
   355. Rally Posted: December 12, 2017 at 02:37 PM (#5590945)
It's hard to know how to apply Biggio to Cano, honestly.


Biggio probably would have gone in first ballot except for this line of thinking:

BBWAA crazy: "I can't vote for Bagwell because he probably used steroids. He must have, he was in the same locker room as Ken Caminiti"

Internet poster trying to point out the ridiculousness of that: "Come on, that's no proof Bagwell did anything. If you think that proves anything against Bagwell, then how can you vote for Biggio since they were all on the same team?"

BBWAA crazy: "You're right! No HOF for Biggio either!"

Internet poster: (facepalm)
   356. Baldrick Posted: December 12, 2017 at 02:56 PM (#5590963)
It would be pretty surprising if Edgar makes it this year. Even with his significant gains, he's still off pace to actually get in. So he would need to do even better from the 90% that haven't published their ballots so far than from the 10% who did. Could happen, but I'd bet against it.

I'll be really REALLY shocked if Hoffman misses, but I suppose it's possible. It would certainly be interesting, especially since it would mean Hoffman and Rivera sharing a ballot.
   357. taxandbeerguy Posted: December 12, 2017 at 03:06 PM (#5590980)
@354

Thanks for that. Made my day.

The more ballots come in, I'm thinking Vlad is going to end up well over the line, in the 83-87% range as opposed to 80% or so I would've pegged him at.

I think Edgar's going to end up short but of this holds, he will be right around 70-72% which would set up nicely for election coming in 2019.

Hope Hoffman can get in just to clear the ballot.

Walker's adds are very impressive with still many voters saying he's just off ballot for them. He (and Edgar and Mussina to lesser extents) were #11 on a lot of ballots last year. I think Rolen will be the new Walker candidate, as soon as the ballot clears up, he could have a substantial number of adds. Could be here by 2020 or (more likely) 2021.
   358. DanG Posted: December 12, 2017 at 05:08 PM (#5591143)
Most WAR Fielding Runs, seasons 1-11, 75%+ G at Shortstop, since 1956:

Player             Rfld dWAR OPS+   PA From   To   Age
Andrelton Simmons 163.0 21.9   90 3129 2012 2017 22
-27
Ozzie Smith       157.6 28.6   85 6812 1978 1988 23
-33
Mark Belanger     153.3 25.4   69 4398 1965 1975 21
-31
Jack Wilson       143.2 20.8   77 5262 2001 2011 23
-33
Luis Aparicio     132.5 23.8   80 7106 1956 1966 22
-32
Ozzie Guillen     125.8 22.0   70 5396 1985 1995 21
-31
Adam Everett      116.2 15.6   66 3070 2001 2011 24
-34
Cal Ripken        115.8 22.7  126 7092 1981 1991 20
-30
Troy Tulowitzki    96.0 16.0  120 5142 2006 2016 21
-31
Ron Hansen         90.7 16.6   93 4452 1958 1968 20
-30
Omar Vizquel       90.6 18.0   83 5888 1989 1999 22
-32 

First 11 seasons was chosen because it covers Omar's peak fielding years.
   359. bachslunch Posted: December 12, 2017 at 05:14 PM (#5591149)
Coke to post 355. Got a good laugh out of it. Or at least we can laugh now given that they’re both in.
   360. gabrielthursday Posted: December 12, 2017 at 05:52 PM (#5591180)
@356
Even with his significant gains, he's still off pace to actually get in. So he would need to do even better from the 90% that haven't published their ballots so far than from the 10% who did.

Actually, this isn't the case. Because of the distribution of ballots so far received, Martinez is definitely on pace for induction. There are 40 returning voters, 12 of whom didn't vote for him last time. He's gained 8 votes from that group. Based on last years number of voters, there are 171 voters left who didn't vote for him last year. Martinez is on pace to gain 114 votes from them. He is losing 1 of 14 votes from his supporters last year - with 231 left to report, he is on pace to lose 16 or 17 of those voters. That's a net gain of +98, more than enough to gain election - he missed by 73 votes last year.
   361. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: December 12, 2017 at 06:59 PM (#5591220)
The voters in 2020 won't have too much trouble whittling their ballots down to 10.
Jeter will go in on the first ballot, but after that there should be plenty of room.

Clemens(8), Bonds(8), Schilling(8),and Mussina(8) will lead the way. After that, there's
Halladay(2), Pettitte(2), Helton(2), Vizquel(3), Rolen(3), A.Jones(3), Manny(4), Wagner(5),
Sheffield(6), Kent(7), Sosa(8),and L.Walker(10).

2021 has no obvious guys at all, Buehrle and Hudson are the top newcomers.
   362. Peter Farted Again Posted: December 12, 2017 at 07:54 PM (#5591234)
That still looks like a pretty tough ballot, in a different way. Jeter through Halladay, plus Walker, will likely be on the majority of 2020 ballots, taking up 7 slots. I'd guess one of them (Mussina?) will already be in by then, so that's 6. If you vote for all of them, there's only 4 slots left for 10 candidates, all of whom have at least a reasonably plausible case. True, the cream of the crop won't be squeezed anymore, but there's still a logjam near the borderline.
   363. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: December 12, 2017 at 08:15 PM (#5591242)
I messed up on 361. Obviously, Mussina will only be in his 7th election.
   364. cardsfanboy Posted: December 12, 2017 at 08:40 PM (#5591253)
It would be pretty surprising if Edgar makes it this year. Even with his significant gains, he's still off pace to actually get in. So he would need to do even better from the 90% that haven't published their ballots so far than from the 10% who did. Could happen, but I'd bet against it.

I'll be really REALLY shocked if Hoffman misses, but I suppose it's possible. It would certainly be interesting, especially since it would mean Hoffman


I don't think anyone is thinking Edgar is going in this year, just that he's going to reach a point where it becomes obvious he's going in. He's on his ninth ballot, and a jump to 68 or so percent pretty much guarantees he goes in on his 10th and final ballot. I think the combination of saber savvy voters, and the fact that a percentage of voters are already trying to justify Ortiz is going to help him out tremendously, I mean if a clearly inferior hitter like Ortiz is a first ballot hofer as a DH, then it makes zero sense to keep Edgar out.
   365. Adam Starblind Posted: December 12, 2017 at 09:15 PM (#5591264)
I don't really see what Grich and Whitaker have to do with anything, given that the BBWAA voting bodies not only have nearly different makeups, but are also using different methods—not exclusively, but in larger numbers than before.


Fairly simple thing--like other second baseman that we think of as clearly worthy of induction, they were underappreciated. But it was absolutely clear (including I'm sure to you) that my point was much more about Biggio, Alomar, and Sandberg.
   366. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: December 12, 2017 at 09:15 PM (#5591266)
. I think the combination of saber savvy voters, and the fact that a percentage of voters are already trying to justify Ortiz is going to help him out tremendously, I mean if a clearly inferior hitter like Ortiz is a first ballot hofer as a DH, then it makes zero sense to keep Edgar out.


Keep the love for Ortiz coming my friend! Have you been to any good soccer matches lately?

Ortiz has got that narrative thing going in spades. Sure even I know Edgar was a more valuable player over the course of his career, but, and I know you'll love this argument, it is still the Hall of FAME and a borderline guy like Ortiz gets that big boost to push him over.
   367. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: December 12, 2017 at 09:22 PM (#5591274)
Jeter will go in on the first ballot, but after that there should be plenty of room.

Clemens(8), Bonds(8), Schilling(8),and Mussina(8) will lead the way. After that, there's
Halladay(2), Pettitte(2), Helton(2), Vizquel(3), Rolen(3), A.Jones(3), Manny(4), Wagner(5),
Sheffield(6), Kent(7), Sosa(8),and L.Walker(10).


That still looks like a pretty tough ballot, in a different way.


Jeter
Clemens
Bonds
Schilling
Mussina
Halladay
Walker
Manny
Rolen
are over qualified

Sosa, Sheffield and if I squint Kent can have arguments made for them.
The rest fall below the line for me. If you think Pettite is a HOFer then you might as well elect Buehrle. At least he's thrown a perfecto, a no-no and had that "nobody ever stole on him and look how fast he works" narrative thing going for him. Along with a few GG.
   368. cardsfanboy Posted: December 12, 2017 at 09:47 PM (#5591285)
Ortiz has got that narrative thing going in spades. Sure even I know Edgar was a more valuable player over the course of his career, but, and I know you'll love this argument, it is still the Hall of FAME and a borderline guy like Ortiz gets that big boost to push him over.


Yep, in half of his post season series he played in he sucked, but hey let's forget simple math and only focus on the few he kicked ass in.


He's a B hofer, who should be like Jim Rice struggling to go in for 15 years even if you ignore the clear PED taint, and instead he's going to go in on his first or second ballot because 1. the writers are ####### stupid 2. the fans are equally stupid.... And again I shouldn't complain, Lou Brock is just a slightly better candidate and equally inferior and he went in on the first ballot (he didn't have bad 40% of his post seasons being a drain on the team like Ortiz does)
   369. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: December 12, 2017 at 10:04 PM (#5591300)
I don't think Pettitte or Helton are Hall-worthy, I just think they'll hang around on the ballot.
Helton in the teens and Pettitte in the twenties. I'm thrilled about Larry Walker. I'd like to see
him maybe get up to at least 50% before his time runs out. Maybe get on a VC ballot.
I had him as a rookie on my 1990 fantasy team. Then I got him again in 1997 (hurt 1/2 of 1996).
Holy cow, the box scores that year were fun.
   370. The Duke Posted: December 12, 2017 at 10:38 PM (#5591338)
Vizquel drifting to 30-40% range. What are odds the first 7 ballots cast would all have his name?
   371. Peter Farted Again Posted: December 12, 2017 at 11:09 PM (#5591372)
If it were truly random chance, assuming Vizquel's "true" percentage is 1/3, it's 1 in 3^7 = 1/2187. It's definitely not random, but there's the theory.
   372. Baldrick Posted: December 12, 2017 at 11:30 PM (#5591389)
Actually, this isn't the case. Because of the distribution of ballots so far received, Martinez is definitely on pace for induction. There are 40 returning voters, 12 of whom didn't vote for him last time. He's gained 8 votes from that group. Based on last years number of voters, there are 171 voters left who didn't vote for him last year. Martinez is on pace to gain 114 votes from them. He is losing 1 of 14 votes from his supporters last year - with 231 left to report, he is on pace to lose 16 or 17 of those voters. That's a net gain of +98, more than enough to gain election - he missed by 73 votes last year.

Hadn't thought about it that way, and that is a good point.

I'd still bet against it happening, but he's doing a little better than I thought.
   373. kwarren Posted: December 13, 2017 at 12:05 AM (#5591425)
Selig in, Morris in. Vizquel lookin' real good. Now all we need is an etching of Clemens, Bonds and the chain-rattling ghost of Marvin Miller standing outside in the falling snow, peering through the window. The Very Possible Dream is going to come true!

How long before we don't even care anymore. I know I'm losing interest in the Hall of Fame as time passes.
   374. kwarren Posted: December 13, 2017 at 12:18 AM (#5591431)
what if Albert Pujols plays out the string and outs up a negative 10-15 WAR. Does that start to taint his accomplishments? Does it impact his inner-circle argument?


I don't think that negative WAR at the beginning or the end of a career should be held against a player's qualification. If they had instead posted those seasons in the minors or in "happily-retired ville" nobody would hold it against them. Some players get called up too early or hang on too long (to collect 25 million annually). What they do, when they are just taking up space in the majors, really shouldn't be part of their HOF argument.
   375. gabrielthursday Posted: December 13, 2017 at 01:24 AM (#5591442)
@358

This is one of the reasons I really don't understand the Vizquel candidacy. Yes, he was a good defensive shortstop - but he certainly wasn't a generational defender, much less in the running for best of all time. I also dislike how defence only seems to be valued by the BBWAA in shortstops - Kenny Lofton and Jim Edmonds received no credit for their defensive abilities, and it very much looks like Andruw Jones and Scott Rolen will receive very little credit for their abilities in the field. All of those players have creditable resumes as hitters too, unlike Vizquel.
   376. Srul Itza At Home Posted: December 13, 2017 at 03:29 AM (#5591450)
he didn't have bad 40% of his post seasons being a drain on the team like Ortiz does)


Of course, he only played in three.
   377. Booey Posted: December 13, 2017 at 11:32 AM (#5591642)
Hoping Edgar gets in this year is just getting greedy. ;-) We're already likely to see a 6 player class; 4 BBWAA inductees plus the VC actually - gasp! - elected 2 living former players, including a long time SABR darling (plus a longtime SABR anti-darling, but whatevs). Edgar will pull a Raines and get in on his last ballot, forming a 3 player class with Rivera and Halladay. Here's how I see the next few elections playing out. The recent 3 player/year average is going to drop back down to 1 or 2 pretty quick:

2018 - Chipper (1), Thome (1), Vlad (2), Hoffman (3)
2019 - Rivera (1), Halladay (1 - some RIP sympathy), Edgar (10)
2020 - Jeter (1), Mussina (7) - Yankee centric election.
2021 - Schilling (9) - Backlog is finally whittled down enough for him to break through.
2022 - Ortiz (1) - Last chance for Bonds and Clemens (and first for ARod). B/C will be close, but I don't see either of them making it via the writers.
2023 - Ichiro! (1) - Debut of Carlos Beltran too, but he may have to wait a year or two.

Maybe Vizquel gets in there somewhere too. I don't see anyone else on the current ballot making it in via the BBWAA.
   378. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: December 13, 2017 at 11:33 AM (#5591645)
Costas wins the Frick---quite honestly, I would have thought he had already won it
   379. Booey Posted: December 13, 2017 at 11:38 AM (#5591654)
This is one of the reasons I really don't understand the Vizquel candidacy. Yes, he was a good defensive shortstop - but he certainly wasn't a generational defender, much less in the running for best of all time.


My biggest problem with his candidacy is how much credit he seems to be getting for his offense, based solely on a high compiled hit total. He was never a good hitter. His offense is a negative against his candidacy, not a plus for it. Being league average at the plate at one thing - batting average - (and well below average at everything else) for a really long time doesn't make you great.
   380. Booey Posted: December 13, 2017 at 11:57 AM (#5591697)
If you think Pettite is a HOFer then you might as well elect Buehrle. At least he's thrown a perfecto, a no-no and had that "nobody ever stole on him and look how fast he works" narrative thing going for him. Along with a few GG.


That's all true for the HoM, but I can see how HOF voters might prefer Pettitte. 256 wins usually gets you into the HOF (see Morris, Jack). 214 usually doesn't unless you were Pedro - or at least Schilling or Halladay - at your peak. 42 extra wins plus 7 fewer losses equals a significantly higher winning percentage (.626-.572). Pettitte also had two 20 win seasons (none for Buehrle, and only 1 season higher than 16), did better in CYA voting (2nd, 4th, 5th, 5th, and 6th place finishes. Buehrle had just one 5th place finish), and has a much more extensive postseason resume (19-11, including 8 World Series vs 2-1 and 1 World Series).
   381. Howie Menckel Posted: December 13, 2017 at 12:19 PM (#5591739)
Pettitte regular season was a 3.85 ERA for a 117 ERA+

postseason he was a 3.81 ERA
   382. Downing Almost Deserves It Posted: December 13, 2017 at 12:51 PM (#5591796)
@cardsfanboy

With respect, I think you're being awfully unfair to Ortiz. There is no clear steroid taint. He may or may not have failed a test before there was any steroid ban. We're looking at one unconfirmed report.

You're also being unfair in terms of post-season performance. Even in the 2013 ALCS, for example, I'll take the grand slam to essentially win Game 2 to even the series. And while Brock was 3/3 (if you count 1964 with a .300 OBP), Ortiz was great in well over three playoff series. By the way, Ortiz posted a .455/.576/.795 in the World Series compared to Brock's awesome .391/.424/.655. I'll take Ortiz.

However, the bottom line is that you're absolutely right that Ortiz isn't qualified as a Hall of Famer unless you correct for playoff performance or "fame" far more than I think is even remotely reasonable. Huge Red Sox fan. It makes me sad, but keep Papi out. Oh, and put Dewey in.

Like Morris and Brock, it won't be Papi's fault when he gets in. I say let's focus our collective anger on the folks who elect the undeserving rather than the undeserving themselves.

   383. John DiFool2 Posted: December 13, 2017 at 12:59 PM (#5591813)
This is one of the reasons I really don't understand the Vizquel candidacy. Yes, he was a good defensive shortstop - but he certainly wasn't a generational defender, much less in the running for best of all time. I also dislike how defence only seems to be valued by the BBWAA in shortstops - Kenny Lofton and Jim Edmonds received no credit for their defensive abilities, and it very much looks like Andruw Jones and Scott Rolen will receive very little credit for their abilities in the field. All of those players have creditable resumes as hitters too, unlike Vizquel.


Second basemen have to hit like 3B.
Third basemen have to hit like 1B.
Center fielders have to hit like corner outfielders.

I.e. no adjustments for position difficulty or for defensive ability need apply.
   384. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 13, 2017 at 01:06 PM (#5591827)
I think you're being awfully unfair to Ortiz. There is no clear steroid taint. He may or may not have failed a test before there was any steroid ban. We're looking at one unconfirmed report.

How is that different than most of those tainted by pre-testing era steroid allegations? Rumor and speculation can't be OK for Bonds, Clemens & Sosa et al but unfair for Ortiz. And there's those whose election appears to have just been delayed, such as Bagwell, Piazza & Biggio. I'm fine with insisting on actual evidence (or even not worrying about whether folks took the readily available PED of their era), but Ortiz shouldn't be the only beneficiary of such a standard.
   385. Downing Almost Deserves It Posted: December 13, 2017 at 01:15 PM (#5591843)
@384

Good point. I completely ignore any PED use or speculation before the time they were banned by MLB. I do so for all players.
   386. homerwannabee Posted: December 13, 2017 at 01:17 PM (#5591845)
Still shocked that Johan Santana doesn't have a single vote after 46 ballots. He has 9 straight years of an ERA+ of 129 or higher. Had six straight years of finishing 7th or higher in the Cy Young award. 5 straight years finishing 5th or higher. From a period of 2004 to 2008 he's the best pitcher in baseball. Don Mattingly has a three year period of being the best player in baseball and he gets at least 5% for 15 years.
This is an absolute disgrace that he's not even getting 5%.

Edit: He also is in the top 5 in WAR four different years.
   387. Booey Posted: December 13, 2017 at 01:25 PM (#5591859)
Don Mattingly has a three year period of being the best player in baseball and he gets at least 5% for 15 years.

This is an absolute disgrace that he's not even getting 5%.


That makes sense in theory, but that's the downside of the pointless 10 player max rule. Mattingly didn't have to face ballots as crowded as this one until his last couple years.

A better way to look at it, IMO, is: would Santana make your top 10 this year? That'd be hard to justify for me. And if he wouldn't, it's not really fair to fault other voters for having the same mindset.

On an unlimited ballot, yes, there'd be no reason why he shouldn't get at least 5%.
   388. gabrielthursday Posted: December 13, 2017 at 01:25 PM (#5591861)
@385

PEDs were banned in 1991. MLB didn't take measures to effectively enforce the ban until 2003 or so. Now, you can certainly say that players who took PEDs before testing began are less culpable for breaking the rules - but they were still breaking them.
   389. bachslunch Posted: December 13, 2017 at 01:27 PM (#5591863)
Off topic Hall of Fame news, may be of interest or not: the Rock and Roll Hall elected Sister Rosetta Tharpe (early influence), The Cars, Bon Jovi, Nina Simone, Moody Blues, and Dire Straits.
   390. Ithaca2323 Posted: December 13, 2017 at 01:31 PM (#5591870)
I can't see Pettitte getting in. I can't imagine hardline PED guys going to bat for him, and even without that, he's basically borderline. I mean, it's sort of hard to fathom, but he had half as many 4 WAR seasons as Jack Morris

I've always thought one of the things that would hurt Pettitte was that he always seemed to be the Yankees Game 2 starter in the postseason, and thus did not have the "ace" label. It seemed like the Yankees always had someone who was ahead of Pettitte in the hierarchy (Cone, Wells, Clemens, El Duque, Mussina, Sabathia)
   391. Downing Almost Deserves It Posted: December 13, 2017 at 01:32 PM (#5591871)
@388

I don't believe they were banned in 1991. The Commissioner said they were, but he doesn't have the right to impose such a ban. It had to be collectively bargained. The Commissioner can't just say that all players have to give 5% of their salaries to charity, that there will be double headers every Tuesday, or just about anything else. Pretty much everything has to be collectively bargained.

And still no Marvin Miller in the Hall. Alas.
   392. Ithaca2323 Posted: December 13, 2017 at 01:34 PM (#5591875)
2020 - Jeter (1), Mussina (7) - Yankee centric election.


This would just be the perfect capper to Mussina's career of being overlooked. With his luck, Jeter would get 100% that year
   393. Booey Posted: December 13, 2017 at 01:39 PM (#5591882)
PEDs were banned in 1991. MLB didn't take measures to effectively enforce the ban until 2003 or so. Now, you can certainly say that players who took PEDs before testing began are less culpable for breaking the rules - but they were still breaking them.


Yeah, but only in the same sense that players smoking pot or doing coke (or amps) were breaking the rules (the generic "anything that's illegal is also banned" rule).
   394. Booey Posted: December 13, 2017 at 01:42 PM (#5591883)
This would just be the perfect capper to Mussina's career of being overlooked. With his luck, Jeter would get 100% that year


Hey, at least this way, people will actually show up to Mussina's election!
   395. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 13, 2017 at 01:47 PM (#5591890)
PEDs were banned in 1991. MLB didn't take measures to effectively enforce the ban until 2003 or so. Now, you can certainly say that players who took PEDs before testing began are less culpable for breaking the rules - but they were still breaking them.

As #391 notes, steroids weren't really banned in 1991. Certainly not in the way that amphetamines were supposedly controlled by federal law while MLB turned a blind eye toward blatant violation of that law. Penalties for abuse of amphetamines were always more severe. For some reason, some folks want to pretend that using pharmaceuticals to play better in the 1990s was different than using pharmaceuticals to play better in the 1960s-1980s.
   396. BrianBrianson Posted: December 13, 2017 at 01:53 PM (#5591899)
If it were truly random chance, assuming Vizquel's "true" percentage is 1/3, it's 1 in 3^7 = 1/2187. It's definitely not random, but there's the theory.


This isn't really the right way to address the question. There's a "look elsewhere" bias, where there were a lot of unlikely events you're not considering, but once you add them all up, the odds of something very unlikely happening is quite high.
   397. TJ Posted: December 13, 2017 at 02:09 PM (#5591918)
Off topic Hall of Fame news, may be of interest or not: the Rock and Roll Hall elected Sister Rosetta Tharpe (early influence), The Cars, Bon Jovi, Nina Simone, Moody Blues, and Dire Straits.


Alan Trammell goes into Cooperstown and The Moody Blues make the R&R HOF- now all we have to do is get the Magic 8-Ball into the National Toy Hall of Fame and everything will be right with the world.
   398. Ithaca2323 Posted: December 13, 2017 at 02:13 PM (#5591923)
Re; Johan

To begin with, he was rarely the best pitcher in baseball from 2004-2008. By bWAR:

2004: Santana 8.6, Johnson 8.5
2005: Clemens 7.8, Willis 7.2, Santana 7.2
2006: Santana 7.5, Webb 7.0
2007: Oswalt 6.7, Beckett 6.5....Santana 5.0
2008: Lincecum 7.9, Santana 7.1, Dempster 7.0

Yeah, his cumulative WAR from 2004-2008 might be the highest, but on a season by season basis, he never really stood out the way Pedro, Clemens, Johnson and Maddux did in their primes. I feel like, since Santana's entire case rests on his peak, there needs to be some season where he just blows all the competition away. Here are those seasons for those other pitchers:

1990: Clemens 10.6, Finley 7.6
1994: Maddux 8.5, Cone 6.8
1997: Clemens 11.9, Pedro 9.0
2001: Pedro, 11.7, Johnson 8.1
2002: Johnson 10.9, Schilling 8.7

Every one of those guys had at least one season where they were 2 or 3 WAR better than everyone else*

*That is, if we assume Maddux's lead over Cone would have continued to grow over the 10 or so starts he missed via the labor stoppage.

Second, I'm sure this data is incomplete, but the tracker lists 12 voters who'd have included more names had they had space, and just one of them lists Santana. I'm not sure he's being hurt by the 10 man limit that much. He'll lose a vote or two, but I don't know if the number is 21 (or however many he'll miss by)
   399. homerwannabee Posted: December 13, 2017 at 02:24 PM (#5591941)
I said the PERIOD from 2004 to 2008. I know he wasn't the best every single year, but over those 5 years of consistent excellence he was the best over a period of five years.

Open your eyes. The man was lights out. This is a horrible injustice. Also four of those years you pick on his stats he was ONE OF THE TWO OR THREE BEST PITCHERS. That's incredible.


The discrimination against starters is amazing. One day people should realize that they are NOT A NORMAL POSITION player. There are five starters on a team. There is only ONE catcher, shortstop, right fielder, Center fielder, 1b, 2b, and 3rd baseman. Stop treating them like there is only one pitcher per team.
   400. homerwannabee Posted: December 13, 2017 at 02:31 PM (#5591950)
Also stop comparing him to INNER CIRCLE 1st BALLOT HALL OF FAMERS. Yes, almost ANY Hall of Fame pitcher looks bad compared to those guys. This was the Golden Age of great pitchers. I am not arguing that he's a first ballot hall of famer. I am arguing that he deserves 5%. He deserves to have his candidacy looked at and inspected.
Page 4 of 18 pages ‹ First  < 2 3 4 5 6 >  Last ›

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Kiko Sakata
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogLEAGUE CHAMPION SERIES OMNICHATTER! for the 2018 Playoffs!
(2614 - 2:42am, Oct 21)
Last: Gold Star - just Gold Star

NewsblogMLB must fix glaring problem that ruined an all-time classic
(88 - 2:12am, Oct 21)
Last: Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle

NewsblogOTP 2018 October 15: The shift in focus from sport to politics
(1441 - 1:56am, Oct 21)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogOT - NBA Thread (2018-19 season kickoff edition)
(795 - 1:22am, Oct 21)
Last: maccoach57

NewsblogOT - October 2018 College Football thread
(156 - 11:42pm, Oct 20)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogWhy The Dodgers' WS Odds are So High
(27 - 11:28pm, Oct 20)
Last: Baldrick

NewsblogCatch-All Pop Culture Extravaganza (October 2018)
(544 - 10:57pm, Oct 20)
Last: Lassus

NewsblogThe Brewers are becoming more and more positionless on defense | SI.com
(22 - 8:50pm, Oct 20)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogBest 2018-19 Hot Stove value may be in trade
(2 - 6:44pm, Oct 20)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogAstros' Jose Altuve underwent surgery to repair right knee injury
(1 - 6:01pm, Oct 20)
Last: Count Vorror Rairol Mencoon (CoB)

NewsblogWhat It Took to Write About Baseball as a Woman
(25 - 5:36pm, Oct 20)
Last: jingoist

Sox TherapyAmerican League Champions!!!!
(32 - 5:17pm, Oct 20)
Last: What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face?

NewsblogOT: Soccer Thread (2018-19 season begins!)
(997 - 2:06pm, Oct 20)
Last: Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature

Hall of Merit2019 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion
(173 - 1:33pm, Oct 20)
Last: Dr. Chaleeko

NewsblogBrewers win NLCS Game 6 vs. Dodgers
(2 - 12:21pm, Oct 20)
Last: perros

Page rendered in 0.7359 seconds
46 querie(s) executed