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Tuesday, August 10, 2010

S.I.: Posnanski: Why We Miss The Obvious (Mariners Edition)

Or…Let’s Run This Pennant Up the Flagpole and See if Anybody Salutes it.

It all seems so obvious now, doesn’t it? Bringing back Ken Griffey? Trading for Milton Bradley? Giving 32-year-old Chone Figgins (and his lifetime 99 OPS+) a big-money four-year deal based mostly on one good season (and them moving him to second base)? Signing 32-year-old Jack Wilson to a multi-year contract though he had not played a full-season in two years? Going into the season with Rob Johnson, and his 58 career OPS+, slotted as the regular catcher? Trading for light-hitting Casey Kotchman and inserting him as the Opening Day No. 3 hitter? Building up all sorts of hopes about Ian Snell as a No. 3 starter? Making the moves of a “contender” when the team finished dead last in the American League in runs scored in 2009 and were outscored by 52 runs? Trading a 25-year-old one-time phenom Brandon Morrow and his 98-mph fastball for an older hard-throwing reliever with the same first name (Brandon League)? Expecting another low ERA closer year from David Aardsma? Letting go of Russell Branyan who was one of only two good offensive players on the team in 2009 (he led the team in OPS+)?

Yes, it seems so obvious now that the Seattle Mariners were likely to have a terrible crash this season. And it probably should have seemed obvious in February too. And it probably WAS obvious then — Monday’s firing of manager Don Wakamatsu was etched in stone back before spring training.

But a whole lot of us missed it. Why?

I tend to think of it as the “12 Angry Men Syndrome…

Repoz Posted: August 10, 2010 at 03:01 AM | 211 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, history, mariners, media, sabermetrics

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Page 3 of 3 pages  < 1 2 3
   201. Srul Itza Posted: August 11, 2010 at 10:55 PM (#3614238)
From Shatner's questions to Limbaugh and what's his face, it seems he's fairly liberal, though not overly so.

He's worse than a liberal.

He's a Canadian.
   202. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: August 11, 2010 at 10:55 PM (#3614239)
Reposted because I deserve better:


Also the gang members in this case tied his family up, threatened them with knives, and beat him. Not mere burglars.

He should have gotten a medal not an indictment. Once you threaten somebodies life, they have pretty wide latitude to render you no longer a threat.

My addition:

Jesus christ, someone who wouldn't stalk and kill infiltrators who had tied up their wife and kids and threatened them with knives is not a man. Damn the law on the books, there's a greater law at stake there.
   203. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: August 11, 2010 at 11:14 PM (#3614246)
1: Let's say the homeowner shot the intruder in the back as he was leaving through a window

2: Let's say the homeowner has the intruder at gunpoint, says "hand up", and the intruder actually drops whatever he has, and puts his hands up, "I surrender"- and then the homeowner shoots him

3: Let's say the homeowner has a clear path to escape and call the police, but chooses instead top confront the intruder and shoots him

Do you see prosecution of the homeowner justified in any of the three scenarios above? Do you see any difference in the three scenarios?
The homeowner deserves to be punished in the second case. The first case is more fact specific - was the burglar carrying away stuff? Did he stop when warned? In the third case, the homeowner deserves a medal.
   204. Jeff R., P***y Mainlander Posted: August 11, 2010 at 11:16 PM (#3614248)

I was browsing through the responses, and boy what a bunch of fawning sycophants Dave has as readers

There are some real gems in there.

"Does anyone fact check Joe on a regular basis, or is it possible Joe is NOT better than this?"

You stay classy, Jack Z. fanboy.
   205. Forsch 10 From Navarone (Dayn) Posted: August 11, 2010 at 11:35 PM (#3614253)
Jesus christ, someone who wouldn't stalk and kill infiltrators who had tied up their wife and kids and threatened them with knives is not a man. Damn the law on the books, there's a greater law at stake there.

I had the flu a few years ago and was reduced to watching some Gary Busey movie on cable. He was an ex-con or something, and this biker gang wound up murdering his wife. He had promised his wife to stay on the straight and narrow (or something like that), so he resisted the urge to take revenge. But then the biker gang dug up his wife, chained the coffin to the back of a bike, drove it to Busey's place, cut the chain as they sped by, and sent the coffin crashing into his house. THEN IT WAS ON.
   206. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: August 11, 2010 at 11:44 PM (#3614255)
of course when someone loses a loved one they are angry and will want vengeance- that's why you don't put family members of the victim in the jury box

Wouldn't this have been the correct answer to Bernie Shaw's obnoxious question?

what a bunch of fawning sycophants Dave has as readers

Maybe you need to update your handle.
   207. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: August 11, 2010 at 11:55 PM (#3614264)
I like vengeance.
   208. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: August 12, 2010 at 12:33 AM (#3614288)
   209. Super Creepy Derek Lowe (GGC) Posted: August 12, 2010 at 01:34 AM (#3614320)
I was browsing through the responses, and boy what a bunch of fawning sycophants Dave has as readers

In fact, you could say it's a sycophant-laden forum.
   210. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: August 12, 2010 at 02:41 AM (#3614347)
That's one version
there were multiple witnesses, no two had the same version (which is pretty much how all eyewitness testimony works)

this is the version the NY Court of Appeals found the most likely:
It appears from the evidence before the Grand Jury that Canty approached Goetz, possibly with Allen beside him, and stated "Give me five dollars". Neither Canty nor any of the other youths displayed a weapon. Goetz responded by standing up, pulling out his handgun and firing four shots in rapid succession. The first shot hit Canty in the chest; the second struck Allen in the back; the third went through Ramseur's arm and into his left side; the fourth was fired at Cabey, who apparently was then standing in the corner of the car, but missed, deflecting instead off of a wall of the conductor's cab. After Goetz briefly surveyed the scene around him, he fired another shot at Cabey, who then was sitting on the end bench of the car. The bullet entered the rear of Cabey's side and severed his spinal cord.[19]
Note that this is based on grand jury testimony, not testimony at trial. In other words, it's the testimony most favorable to the prosecution.
   211. CrosbyBird Posted: August 12, 2010 at 02:42 AM (#3614348)
Sure it is, it's a good outcome but a bad process. Not saying it's right, but a good is still achieved.

Reaching a guilty result through a bad process is a bad outcome. Perhaps not in the individual sense, but in the sense of the damage it does to the system. (IMO, of course.)

If OJ did kill his wife, and the cops did add to the evidence, I want a system that tries to achieve 2 goods: 1) punish OJ b/c he did it 2) punish the cops for their bad behavior, severely, to deter future "framing".

I want goal #3 as well: demonstrate to the public that we simply won't trust evidence when it is not obtained properly, to reinforce the idea that we're more focused on individual rights than on punishment.

Believe me, seeing three of their buddies getting fired and losing their pension will deter cops a lot more than a mere acquittal.

I think a good deal of the public impact is lost. The cops may care, but the end result tells people that sometimes our police cheat, and the system is okay with the results of that cheating.

Our current policy shows the public that we have a standard of evidence that is inviolate; the state doesn't get to benefit from the fruit of its own bad actors.
   212. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: August 12, 2010 at 02:49 AM (#3614350)
Once you threaten somebodies life, they have pretty wide latitude to render you no longer a threat.

What threat does someone pose when they are running away from you?
The threat to get away with your property?
Page 3 of 3 pages  < 1 2 3

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