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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, October 07, 2009
“Get me that young kid in Pittsburgh with the long blonde hair…uhh, McCloudy or something.” (hitches beige Dockers..looks to leak)
“Nate McLouth is still a fourth OF masquerading as a starting CF.”
That’s Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus. It’s not the first time I’ve heard this comment, and I don’t get it. Take a look at McLouth’s numbers for the past three seasons.
Season OPS+ +/- SB/CS
2007 110 -9 22/1
2008 126 -37 23/3
2009 109 +3 19/6
There is no arguing that McLouth is an above-average hitter, and when you add in his contributions on the basepaths it’s clear that he is a valuable offensive player. His lone deficiency is on defense, where he drew the ire of many saber-minded commentators for winning a Gold Glove while having the worst Plus/Minus in the league. He also was the Pirates lone All-Star representative in 2008, because someone had to go. But the justifiable backlash against his mainstream overrating doesn’t justify relegating him to part-time status.
...In conclusion, I think there is very little evidence to support the claim that McLouth is a fourth outfielder. He may not be an All-Star or a Gold-Glover, but he’s a starting center fielder for most major-league teams.
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1. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: October 07, 2009 at 12:28 PM (#3343392)Someone from the sabersphere is overreacting? Get out of here!
Maybe I'm projecting. Or maybe someone needs to point out to Joe that McLouth would start every day and twice on Sundays ahead of Melky Cabrera.
McClouth is a good player. Not a great player, but a good player.
What is not worthwhile, what is categorically wrong, is mistaking such a player for a quad-A, "fourth outfielder" type. McLouth clearly belongs in MLB and he clearly starts in virtually every ML team's outfield. If Jordan Schafer rebounds successfully from the wrist injury and puts up equivalent offense while playing better defense in CF, then you start to ask yourself "McLouth vs Matt Diaz" or some variant, but that's not an argument against either player being a ML starter.
Same here.
If Jordan Schafer rebounds successfully from the wrist injury and puts up equivalent offense while playing better defense in CF, then you start to ask yourself "McLouth vs Matt Diaz" or some variant, but that's not an argument against either player being a ML starter.
Which, as a Diaz fan, is nice to be able say.
The answer is it doesn't matter.
I've never fully embraced the Matt Diaz fan club, but his work post-Francoeur gives me more confidence that before. He still shows noticable splits vs RHP and in a perfect world I'd platoon him with a healthy Ryan Church, but if he's starting on one of the corners every day you're not giving up too much. He's turned himself into a quality defender on either side of center.
I suspect the answer is actually "Who's your starting pitcher today?"
Naturally, it depends on the other available players. If you have a good defensive centerfielder who doesn't give up too much offensively, and a hole on the corner, you move Mclouth. If there isn't a good centerfielder, you play him there. If you have three better outfielders, THEN McLouth would be your fourth outfielder, although it might be better to use him as trade bait to fill another hole.
McLouth was 32nd by OPS+
445+ PAs (to get 5 per team)
McLouth was 36th.
Basically the only way McLouth is not a starting caliber MLB OF is if he's really a DH who can't even fake LF...
Yeah, but getting all use-case specific reduces Joe's ability to make sweeping, asinine, utterly pointless proclamations.
In the case of the 2010 Atlanta Braves, Nate McLouth's proper position depends on a couple of very non-McLouth related variables.
1) Does Frank Wren acquire a major free agent for the OF. They're on record as chasing a "RH power bat." Matt Holliday and Jason Bay are available. Wren has money. If they buy one of those guys, McLouth plays CF.
2) In the absence a free agent acquisition, who between Ryan Church, Jordan Schafer and Jason Heyward wins the battles in spring training? If it's Church or Heyward (as starters), McLouth plays CF. If Schafer plays himself into a starting role again it makes sense to move McLouth to LF and play Diaz/Church in RF.
As for Sheehan... he's, in a lot of ways, the face of what BPro has been/become, for better or worse.
With BPro it’s Sheehan who by all accounts has chased off legitimately talented and interesting guys like Cameron while pouring out article after article barely above the Mariotti barrier.
Same with Football Outsiders. I enjoyed it until some guy named Bill Barnwell seemed to be given the reins.
Who are these people and how do they gain control? Is it a “I will work 24 hours and before anyone knows it I will be calling the shots” approach that works?
I would have thought more of Silver and Schatz (hey, there’s a law firm if I ever heard one) but maybe with everyone calling they took their eyes off the ball. Or in Nate’s case he’s pretty much moved on and the rest of us in baseball suffer as he transitions into a new phase of his career................................
My favorite Barnwell quote:
Bill Barnwell: New York Giants. When I think about this upcoming Giants season, my heart hurts in the way it does when you think of ex-girlfriends sleeping with new people. Many new people. At the same time. While she reassures them all how much better they are in bed than you. Oh, and she does this all in the next room over from you while you’re trying to sleep. And then makes the whole group breakfast afterwards, your favorite breakfast, too, and throws out the last helping as you go to grab some. It’s like that, except it’s going to happen for about 17 consecutive weekends. It astounds me that some people still think this team has a chance of being competitive in 2007.
Outside of raping a 13 year old and moving to France, there's very little Riann Spanjer-Furstenberg can do to limit my enthusiasm about him.
I've never fully embraced the Matt Diaz fan club, but his work post-Francoeur gives me more confidence that before. He still shows noticable splits vs RHP and in a perfect world I'd platoon him with a healthy Ryan Church, but if he's starting on one of the corners every day you're not giving up too much. He's turned himself into a quality defender on either side of center.
Just always remember to pinch-run for him if he's ever the tying run on third when a playoff birth is on the line.
Your propositions don't support your conclusion. From what you say, Sheehan is a terrible *analyst.* He could still be a perfectly good, even great writer. Not that I think he is, but what you highlight is his weakness as an analyst.
THis makes him sound like Howard Cossell.
It is odd:
McLouth 2007-2009: 265/353/467, 116 OPS+, defense probably better suited to a corner
Swisher 2007-2009: 244/362/454, 115 OPS+, defense probably better suited to a corner
One is a saber-darling, the other is a fungible piece the Pirates were smart to trade (which they might have been but he's not fungible).
There was also a lot of cherry picking going on- the Pro-Swisherites had a habit of discounting 2008 as being Ozzie induced or something, and WRT McLouth, also discounting 2008 for some reason or another.
People (not just sabr-ites) form initial opinions and they can be hard to shake, if you think Swish is a 125 OPS+ level hitter, one year at 92 (out of 3) isn't going to change your mind, likewise if you think McLouth is a 105 or so OPS+ hitter (who can't play a credible CF), one year at 126 isn't going to change yours either....
I'm trying to decipher if you're being serious or sarcastic.
Yes.
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