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Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Sabernomics: Ibanez Versus Burrell

I’m pretty sure this was part the Bobby Czyz/Bruce “The Mouse” Strauss undercard at the Duvast Totawa Ice World.

The differences between Ibanez and Burrell are subtle: Ibanez will be 37 next year and is left-handed, while Burrell is 32 and right-handed. They are alike in that they are both poor-fielding outfielders with good bats, both with OPS+ consistently in the 120s during the past few seasons.

With Ibanez, the Phillies will get output similar to what Burrell gave the team. Given his age, injury may be a bit more likely for Ibabez, but I project their values to be close over the next three years. I project Ibanez to be worth $46.5 million ($14.5 million/year) and Burrell to be worth $48 million ($16 million/year) over this time span. I’m unsure of what Burrell was willing to work for, but Ibanez appears to have offered the Phillies a good deal. Burrell may be worth the $14 million he earned last season with the team, but I suspect he was a going to be more selective than Ibanez, who’s used to making about half the current annual salary of his new contract.

In any event, I think that Phillies fans should be pleased with this signing. Burrell is a valuable player and will likely land a contract with a bigger salary. The team gets to keep Burrell’s production but now has some budget flexibility to add roster depth.

Repoz Posted: December 16, 2008 at 01:49 PM | 6 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, phillies, projections, sabermetrics

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   1. Chris in Wicker Park Posted: December 16, 2008 at 02:37 PM (#3030300)
Maybe but not offering Burrell arbitration makes no sense to me . . . if he accepts, you're on a one year deal. If he doesn't, you can still sign Ibanez and keep your pick.
   2. ECBucs Posted: December 16, 2008 at 02:41 PM (#3030303)
The Phils should definitely offered arbitration.

I don't see Burrell as worth $16 million a year but then I don't think he is as good as Adam Dunn. who is interested in signing Burrell? I haven't seen any rumors yet.
   3. Non-Youkilidian Geometry Posted: December 16, 2008 at 04:52 PM (#3030440)
I've seen some commentators link Burrell to the Reds, which would make some sense, but it's all been very speculative.
   4. flournoy Posted: December 16, 2008 at 05:36 PM (#3030505)
The Brrrennemmmanns would love Burrell, wouldn't they?
   5. celadus Posted: December 16, 2008 at 10:23 PM (#3030982)
As a close watcher of the Mariners, I would say that Phillie fans are not going to be overjoyed with Ibanez's defense. Basically, he runs hard but tends to stay in the same place. No worse than Burrell on defense, but he's five years older. I'd really be surprised to see Ibanez putting up OPS+s in the 120s in his forties.
   6. Lassus Posted: December 16, 2008 at 10:47 PM (#3031012)
The differences between Ibanez and Burrell are subtle: Ibanez will be 37 next year and is left-handed, while Burrell is 32 and right-handed.


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