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Friday, May 30, 2008

Saberpolitics?

FiveThirtyEight.com:  No, I’m not Chuck Todd

My real name is Nate Silver and my principal occupation has been as a writer, analyst and partner at a sports media company called Baseball Prospectus. What we do over there and what I’m doing over here are really quite similar. Both baseball and politics are data-driven industries. But a lot of the time, that data might be used badly.

Mac T Posted: May 30, 2008 at 03:03 PM | 45 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Earvin 'Gold Stars' Johnson Posted: May 30, 2008 at 04:24 PM (#2799667)
I just posted this too.
   2. 3Com Park Posted: May 30, 2008 at 04:26 PM (#2799671)
Poblano's stuff has been some of the best analysis out there during the primary season. Hat's off to Nate for his excellent work in his secret identity.
   3. Justin 'The Cespedobear' T Posted: May 30, 2008 at 04:28 PM (#2799674)
That explains Will Carroll dropping the site name in a comment at the Juice Blog yesterday. Which gives me a chance to say how bummed I am that he has started blogging there again. What a scar. I thought I'd gotten rid of him when I stopped reading BP.
   4. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: May 30, 2008 at 04:29 PM (#2799675)
I posted it also, and mentioned it on the Primer dugout thread....
   5. Danny Posted: May 30, 2008 at 04:29 PM (#2799676)
Very cool, Poblano rocks! And not just because he says I was his favorite Hillary supporter on Kos...
   6. CraigK Posted: May 30, 2008 at 04:41 PM (#2799698)
Holy crap! That was Nate Silver?

Spiffy.

(Good site, too; been reading it for a while now.)
   7. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: May 30, 2008 at 04:56 PM (#2799725)
Thinking about it, if Poblano/Nate is right in his predictions (and I think he may be), MSM may well give some more validation to sabermetrics (since the methodology is ultimately the same).
   8. Jimmy P Posted: May 30, 2008 at 05:03 PM (#2799735)
I'm glad you guys linked this. I've been looking for something like this because I hate polls for the Presidential election. The pollsters forget about the Electoral College whenever they do a poll, they just go off strict popular vote. I guess that wouldn't be a huge problem if they controlled their sampling, but I'm sure they don't.
   9. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 30, 2008 at 05:12 PM (#2799753)
Wow, worlds colliding. I just discovered 538.com recently and really enjoyed it.
   10. HowardMegdal Posted: May 30, 2008 at 05:26 PM (#2799776)
The weird part? Steven Goldman is, in reality, Chuck Todd.
   11. Long John McCaine Mutiny on the Bounty (scott) Posted: May 30, 2008 at 05:44 PM (#2799798)
does this mean our conservative friends will now disown PECOTA?

Poblano/Silver rocks.
   12. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: May 30, 2008 at 05:49 PM (#2799802)
Does Chuck Todd rock?
   13. Gromit Posted: May 30, 2008 at 05:51 PM (#2799805)
Part of why I stopped reading BP was they kept injecting politics into their articles.
Maybe this can be his place to vent politically and so they just talk baseball on BP unless
their truly is legitimate crossover.
   14. Vogon Poet Posted: May 30, 2008 at 05:53 PM (#2799808)
It's great watching all the melodrama on the news channels, then Chuck Todd comes on, rolls his eyes and speaks rationally for five minutes. Then the second he's off-screen everyone goes right back to the petty stuff.

We should be seeing Nate Silver on MSNBC soon, right?
   15. Hack Wilson Posted: May 30, 2008 at 05:57 PM (#2799814)
We should be seeing Nate Silver on MSNBC soon, right?


Guy with a sports background on MSNBC-never gonna happen.
   16. HowardMegdal Posted: May 30, 2008 at 06:07 PM (#2799825)
Does Chuck Todd rock?

Yes. He has since his National Journal days.
   17. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: May 30, 2008 at 06:15 PM (#2799836)
Cool.

For those who don't know, Silver absolutely nailed the NC and IN results by using a method that basically presumed that almost no real movement in people's allegiances had occurred since the beginning of the primary campaign (ie, that Wright didn't matter).
   18. still hunting for a halo-red october (in Delphi) Posted: May 30, 2008 at 08:00 PM (#2800031)
I want to echo #11: does this mean that subscriptions to BP may decline once Republicans figure out that Nate Silver is a regular poster to DailyKos?

Just waiting for Bill O'Reilly to rant and rave that people like Nate Silver are ruining America. And then, subsequently, Keith Olbermann will once again declare O-Really one of the worst persons in the world for comparing Nate/Poblano to Hitler.

Also, Chuck Todd is certainly a rising star in political reporting. His stock has risen (I daresay) almost as quickly and as high as Obama's this political season.
   19. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: May 30, 2008 at 08:04 PM (#2800039)
I want to echo #11: does this mean that subscriptions to BP will decline once Republicans figure out that Nate Silver is a regular poster to DailyKos?
It might, but it shouldn't. If Ron Paul could give me a guarenteed way to win my fantasy league every year and a fantastic PBP metric, I'd sign up for his site in a second.
   20. Petuniaviles Posted: May 30, 2008 at 08:06 PM (#2800042)
Guy with a sports background on MSNBC-never gonna happen.


I can't tell if you're joking.
   21. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 30, 2008 at 08:13 PM (#2800050)
Guy with a sports background on MSNBC-never gonna happen.



I can't tell if you're joking.


I assume he is. Everyone knows Rachel Maddow's softball background.
   22. still hunting for a halo-red october (in Delphi) Posted: May 30, 2008 at 08:16 PM (#2800056)
I assume he is. Everyone knows Rachel Maddow's softball background.


Rachel Maddow: Another person (along with Carlos Quentin) I was surprised to learn had attended my alma mater!

Don't mess with the tree.
   23. still hunting for a halo-red october (in Delphi) Posted: May 30, 2008 at 08:18 PM (#2800061)
It might, but it shouldn't. If Ron Paul could give me a guarenteed [sic] way to win my fantasy league every year and a fantastic PBP metric, I'd sign up for his site in a second.


Of course that site would only be available in the libertarian paradise that is Paulville. Also, keeper leagues are not allowed. Everyone knows that keeper leagues are a new form of slavery.
   24. bibigon Posted: May 30, 2008 at 08:18 PM (#2800062)
Well, I'm canceling my BP subscription now. Everyone knows liberal data is unreliable.
   25. still hunting for a halo-red october (in Delphi) Posted: May 30, 2008 at 08:19 PM (#2800065)
Well, I'm canceling my BP subscription now. Everyone knows liberal data is unreliable.


I'm going to say it so no one else has to: fuzzy math?
   26. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 30, 2008 at 08:23 PM (#2800071)

Well, I'm canceling my BP subscription now. Everyone knows liberal data is unreliable.


Stats and facts are part of the reality-based community. That's not the way the world really works anymore. When we act, we create our own reality.
   27. still hunting for a halo-red october (in Delphi) Posted: May 30, 2008 at 08:26 PM (#2800075)
Stats and facts are part of the reality-based community. That's not the way the world really works anymore. When we act, we create our own reality.


I'm starting to think that half of the people here are closet members of the liberal blogosphere.
   28. Brandon in MO (Yunitility Infielder) Posted: May 30, 2008 at 08:28 PM (#2800078)
I'll note having some experience on the lefty blogosphere. And I try to keep a look out for people praising sac bunts to put them back in line.

Having some grasp of stats and demographics is useful now, due to polling firms (SurveyUSA) having weird samples. Such as SurveyUSA overestimating the white vote in Southern Dem primaries (they had Obama up by like 2 in Alabama and he won by 14).

Now, if only political figures had enough grasp on numbers to not overspend in their campaigns. ;)
   29. Brandon in MO (Yunitility Infielder) Posted: May 30, 2008 at 08:31 PM (#2800082)
Of course that site would only be available in the libertarian paradise that is Paulville. Also, keeper leagues are not allowed. Everyone knows that keeper leagues are a new form of slavery.


Why should leagueowners be deprived of players year to year? Are you a statist who believes that private property isn't private?

I should be able to keep my players for as long as possible.

And if Ron Paul had a fantasy sports league, you'd pay money to play it, and then it'd stop working halfway through and start spending your money on it's relatives.
   30. still hunting for a halo-red october (in Delphi) Posted: May 30, 2008 at 08:35 PM (#2800083)
I think we need to start discussing the Republican Party's inexplicable veteran fetish. Play the kids, damnit!
   31. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: May 30, 2008 at 08:35 PM (#2800084)
I don't think it's a question of left versus right. It's more of a question of rationalism versus irrationalism.

Actually, sabermetrics urges the type of fiscal restraint on teams that should appeal to a true conservative.
   32. The Good Face Posted: May 30, 2008 at 08:39 PM (#2800090)
I want to echo #11: does this mean that subscriptions to BP will decline once Republicans figure out that Nate Silver is a regular poster to DailyKos?


Of course they will. Everyone knows Republicans listen to no music other than Ted Nugent, eschew all movies outside the ouvre of Mel Gibson, and read nothing but the bible (New Testament only) and Ann Coulter books in large print.
   33. Brandon in MO (Yunitility Infielder) Posted: May 30, 2008 at 08:42 PM (#2800094)
As for NC and IN. I think the people who tilted their predictions towards Obama got very lucky on Indiana. Obama's turnout was very good in Indiana. And the polling in the south was spotty enough to make NC look better for Clinton than it really was.

Puerto Rico is the next big math contest. As there is no big polling out of there ahd no idea of how many people will vote.

My predictions for Puerto Rico

Clinton 55, Obama 45
600K vote
Clinton counts her margin of victory in her popular vote claims, even if Puerto Rico doesn't vote in Presidential elections in November.

Puerto Rico's turnout could be lower since they lost their minds and decided to hold an election on a sunday.
   34. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: May 30, 2008 at 08:43 PM (#2800095)
And if Ron Paul had a fantasy sports league, you'd pay money to play it, and then it'd stop working halfway through and start spending your money on it's relatives.
And compounding the problem, you'd have to pay your entry fee in gold, none of this fruity paper money ####.
   35. still hunting for a halo-red october (in Delphi) Posted: May 30, 2008 at 08:44 PM (#2800098)
Of course they will. Everyone knows Republicans listen to no music other than Ted Nugent, eschew all movies outside the ouvre of Mel Gibson, and read nothing but the bible (New Testament only) and Ann Coulter books in large print.


The sad part is I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not.
   36. The Good Face Posted: May 30, 2008 at 08:47 PM (#2800106)
Why can't it be both?
   37. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles Posted: May 30, 2008 at 08:48 PM (#2800107)
Play the kids, damnit!

This is what got all those catholic priests in trouble.
   38. still hunting for a halo-red october (in Delphi) Posted: May 30, 2008 at 08:48 PM (#2800109)
Why can't it be both?


Fair enough.
   39. Marmaduke Ellington Posted: May 30, 2008 at 10:00 PM (#2800248)

I'm starting to think that half of the people here are closet members of the liberal blogosphere.


..and then there's Nieporent et al (none of whom are politically closeted).

I'd be shocked if fewer than 90% of Primates were also active political blog participants.
   40. robinred Posted: May 30, 2008 at 10:12 PM (#2800258)
half


is the operative word. The right has been very well-represented on recent political threads, and other people who don't post on pol threads much (Furtado, schuey, Gaelan, TWO OH OH, Dolf Lucky) have buzzed by and made comments ranging from insightful to nasty (and some that were simultaneously insightful and nasty--the best kind) that indicate right-wing leanings of various types.
   41. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: May 30, 2008 at 10:26 PM (#2800265)
I'd be shocked if fewer than 90% of Primates were also active political blog participants.


Sounds a bit high too me. But if it's not, does that mean that as a member of the 10%< club, I'm suffering some kind of BTF disorder?
   42. robinred Posted: May 30, 2008 at 10:29 PM (#2800272)
Sounds a bit high too me


There is a core group of about 20 guys that talk politics, but I think a lot of Primates are turned off by it. Part of that is people wanting this place to be about baseball, but I don't think all that many guys who come here are big on politics on the net.

And, yeah, you obviously have several disorders.
   43. Roy Hobbs of WIFFLE Ball Posted: May 30, 2008 at 10:46 PM (#2800278)
My predictions for Puerto Rico

...

Clinton counts her margin of victory in her popular vote claims


Way to go out on a limb there. :-)
   44. Roy Hobbs of WIFFLE Ball Posted: May 30, 2008 at 10:54 PM (#2800283)
And, btw, FiveThirtyEight.com > Baseball Prospectus.
   45. cardsfanboy Posted: May 30, 2008 at 11:06 PM (#2800297)
There is a core group of about 20 guys that talk politics, but I think a lot of Primates are turned off by it. Part of that is people wanting this place to be about baseball, but I don't think all that many guys who come here are big on politics on the net.


I don't really participate in the politic posts, and am usually not turned off by it, just hope it maintains some civility when they do happen. I've learned some from the posts when they happen, but usually nothing that can change my mind.

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