Tejada's shown his walk and k rates to be repeatable skills at the Major League level at 20-21. He managed a 96 OPS+ (284 ba!) this season. I'm fairly confident that Tejada will have enough bat to hold down a major league job. He doesn't have much pop, but he should be okay.

I would be very content if Tejada's bat turned out like Omar Vizquel's.

P.S. Omar Vizquel is STILL playing!? He's going in under the Rabbit Maranville Clause.

Here are the only shortstops since 1998 (the last expansion year and thus for me the start of this modern era)

I think everyone needs to take a breath. Offensive levels are way down and what guys were doing in 2001 and what they are doing in 2011 is drastically different. Obviously if he is down at that .070 area he probably is not getting the job done but damn that .360 OBP has a heck of a lot of value.

I agree with Krusty, I think the evidence is clear that he can hit enough well to hold down a ML SS job.

Speaking of Mets' shortstops, now that the Marlins have signed Buehrle, the draft pick for Reyes is down to a 4th rounder, and sinking fast . . . .

As for Tejada, he isn't going to hit. He's got no pop in the bat, and the odds are he never will. And he doesn't have the speed or outstanding instincts on the bases to turn that OBP into a Luis Castillo-like career of offensive value. The OBP, if it is combined with outstanding defense, may make Tejada a perfectly reasonable shortstop option, with good value. But as to the narrow question of whether he's going to hit, the narrow answer is no.

One problem with this analysis is that 2011 is more similar to the 1980s than it is to the modern era from a power environment perspective. If you extend the analysis back to 1980 you find that about 1/3 of shortstops with 3000 PA had an ISO worse than 0.92.

peaking of Mets' shortstops, now that the Marlins have signed Buehrle, the draft pick for Reyes is down to a 4th rounder, and sinking fast

Buehrle is a type B and MLB announced earlier that the Mets get the Marlins second round pick.

As for Tejada, he isn't going to hit. He's got no pop in the bat, and the odds are he never will. And he doesn't have the speed or outstanding instincts on the bases to turn that OBP into a Luis Castillo-like career of offensive value. The OBP, if it is combined with outstanding defense, may make Tejada a perfectly reasonable shortstop option, with good value. But as to the narrow question of whether he's going to hit, the narrow answer is no.

Your definition of not hitting is not entirely clear, and I'm not being snarky. What do you mean? If his offensive numbers are (generally - lies, damn lies, and statistics, etc.) in the top half of NL shortstops, is that still not hitting? If he's 6th or 7th out of 15? Where is your line for him hitting or not?

[S]peaking of Mets' shortstops, now that the Marlins have signed Buehrle, the draft pick for Reyes is down to a 4th rounder, and sinking fast

Buehrle is a type B and MLB announced earlier that the Mets get the Marlins second round pick.

Exactly. Ken Davidoff tweeted about the Mets getting the second round pick a couple hours ago.

Your definition of not hitting is not entirely clear, and I'm not being snarky. What do you mean? If his offensive numbers are (generally - lies, damn lies, and statistics, etc.) in the top half of NL shortstops, is that still not hitting? If he's 6th or 7th out of 15? Where is your line for him hitting or not?

Yeah, I don't get this either-- if he does what he did last year, and plays strong defense, he should be a valuable contributor on the cheap. His 2011 is tough to evaluate, because a) he was up and down all year, b) he was really streaky, and c) he was 21, d) he hit well in the majors, but poorly in the minors. He doesn't look like the type of player who will develop any sort of HR power, but he did start roping some doubles in the last couple of months of the season. I've never understood why some people on this site are so down on him. Reyes was a rare player, and Tejada's going to fall far short of his offensive numbers. That doesn't mean he won't have value to the team. If you want to get depressed about something, Tejada's OPS+ at SS making the league minimum was the same as Bay's playing LF making $18 M.

The problem, for me, is less with Tejada than with a lineup that has 2 other players with a similar lack of pop in Thole and Turner.

Dueling Mike S. commentaries leads you to think that some people get paid by the word...there is a lot more info (quotes, links, etc.) in the other Mike S. post, however. Note to Repoz and Jimbo: time for a S/W upgrade that lets posters list multiple articles on the same subject in the same item. That way Silva and Salfino can snuggle up to one another...

Not that any of it will really tell us anything until the actual games get played, of course. It should be noted that people are still interested in signing Jamey Carroll (and, in fact, have done so), who has (had) pretty much the same offensive profile as the numbers Tejada put up in '11 and is 37 years old.

#1 I figure Maranville was elected because he was the greatest practical joker of all time.

I figure Maranville was elected because he was the greatest practical joker of all time.

Maranville was one of the best defensive shortstops of his time and not a complete zero at bat, although his particular skill set was less valuable in the high-octane offensive era of the 1920s. He was probably as close to Ozzie Smith as anyone pre-WWII.

-- MWE

The problem, for me, is less with Tejada than with a lineup that has 2 other players with a similar lack of pop in Thole and Turner.

I think it's going to be Murphy at second though, if for no other reason than to avoid having 3 guys with no pop in the order.

Glad someone cleared up thedraft pick compensation, I believe I read the Padres get a first round pick in the top 10 for Bell. Is that right?

Reyes was a rare player, and Tejada's going to fall far short of his offensive numbers. That doesn't mean he won't have value to the team.

Tejada is basically Dave Magadan, which means he'll be selected in the 2015 expansion draft by the Las Vegas Aces.

FWIW, Tejada did have some stops in the minors where his SLG exceeded his OBP by a few points.

Magadan had a career OPS+ of 112. I know pretty much nothing about Tejada, but it doesn't sound like he's anywhere near that good.

And for some reason, they are reportedly shopping Niese.

[15] I didn't mean that he would be. Only that their offense takes a similar shape, and Magadan could never do anything well enough because he wasn't Keith Hernandez.

I think it's going to be Murphy at second though, if for no other reason than to avoid having 3 guys with no pop in the order.

That's what they're saying, and even if that's Plan A, it'll last until Murphy rips his knee up again, and then we'll be set for another season of Turner.

There'll be some Groundhog Day action around here with this whole "can Murphy play 2B" discussion that's going to occupy the long, cold months of January and February.

Anyone heard anything about Ike's progress?

3 thoughts:

1. By including Tejada's age 20 numbers in here, when he should't have been in MLB anyway, Salfino making Tejada look worse than he is. Think about Reese Havens, who some people (adorably) think might be a decent baseball player. His age 20 ISO was .115. And that came in a hitters park, with a metal bat, against amateur pitching. It'd be much more useful to look at the overall development of power in 20-21 year old than to look at the MLB numbers of a 20 year old playing at a tougher level than he was ready for. You're penalizing him for being in the bigs instead of AA.

2. Salfino's age usage also makes some of his comps look like worse players than they are. Renteria for instance had OPS+ marks of 80 and 88 as a 20 and 21 year old, but a 103 OPS+ as a 19(!) year old. Salfino's list ignores than amazing display of natural talent. I can't see how ignoring that information helps the analysis.

3. I wonder how many people realize (I didn't) that Ruben Tejada has outhit Elvis Andrus so far. Whether you compare their 2011 seasons to each other, or their age 21 seasons or the total of the age 20-21 years, Tejada comes out on top.
People don't seem to think of Andrus as a guy that "can't hit." Rather they see him for what he is, a good defensive SS who is young enough to improve at the plate.

I think it's going to be Murphy at second though, if for no other reason than to avoid having 3 guys with no pop in the order.

Those guys would also be playing SS, 2b and C though. It isn't so bad to have no pop from those three positions, though you'll obviously need your corner guys to hit well to have a good offense.

I believe I read the Padres get a first round pick in the top 10 for Bell. Is that right?

No.

I should have just taken all stats through the age 21 season, MM1f is correct. But Renteria did not dramatically exceed his age 20-21 season for the entirety of his career, IIRC. I did check to see if his age 20 and 21 numbers were substantially different and they were not, measured by ISO which is all we're caring about in that piece. And indeed his ISO was better at age 20 than at age 21. So I don't see how including it makes him look worse.

What's with the Jon Niese trade talk? You guys covering that in here anywhere? What's wrong with him.

Makes no sense. He's 24, makes the league minimum, and has potential but a career ERA+ of 88. What do they expect in return? Prospects? He basically IS a prospect.

I should have just taken all stats through the age 21 season, MM1f is correct. But Renteria did not dramatically exceed his age 20-21 season for the entirety of his career, IIRC. I did check to see if his age 20 and 21 numbers were substantially different and they were not, measured by ISO which is all we're caring about in that piece. And indeed his ISO was better at age 20 than at age 21. So I don't see how including it makes him look worse.

His age 20 and 21 ISOs were .63 and .60, his age 19 ISO was .90 and his career ISO was .112, with a career high ISO of .150. Yeah, I'd say he substantially exceeded his age 20-21 seasons.

Ignoring a .90 ISO, and focusing on the .60 ones at 20 and 21 DOES certainly make him look worse and, I think, makes him a poor comparison to Tejada.

I'm not sure how it matters, in the context of your piece, if his age 20 and 21 numbers were substantially different. Sheffield's age 20 ISO was substantially different from his age 21 ISO and you used his numbers while Tejada and Renteria had essentially no change in their ISOs from age 20 to 21.

THIS IS NONSENSE - DO YOU THINK THE YANKEES CARE ABOUT ISO?????

The bigger problem, however, is comparing Tejada only against other players who were MLB regulars at those young ages. Doing so compares him against a set of players who, with the exception of Luis Rivas, were exceptionally talented and very MLB ready at a young age. Tejada does not fit this bill.

Comparing Tejada's age 20-21 performance to other 20-21 year old MLB hitters tells us LESS than merely looking at the ability of your average 20-21 year old baseball player (at any level) to develop power.

Apparently San Diego is getting a pick in the second round for Bell, right before the Marlins pick. Only off by a round...

And for some reason, they are reportedly shopping Niese.

Nothing they do makes sense to me.

His age 20 and 21 ISOs were .63 and .60, his age 19 ISO was .90 and his career ISO was .112, with a career high ISO of .150. Yeah, I'd say he substantially exceeded his age 20-21 seasons.

Ignoring a .90 ISO, and focusing on the .60 ones at 20 and 21 DOES certainly make him look worse and, I think, makes him a poor comparison to Tejada.

you're missing a decimal. if tejeda had an iso of .63, he'd be slugging 1.000.

Yes, why would a team ever consider trading a guy with a 88 career ERA+?

Folks, its the offseason. More specifically, it is the winter meetings. Teams "shop" guys all the time. They talk about 'em. They listen what other teams think about their players. If someone like one of their players more than they do, they talk about what they can get for him.

I get it. It must suck to be a Mets fan. It really, really must. I almost feel bad for you. But some reports about a 5th starter quality pitcher being shopped are no reason to blast management. Its what happens. If the Mets weren't considering what they could get for a replaceable pitcher they wouldn't be doing their job. Y'all should be glad to hear they are exploring every avenue they have for improving their team,

It isn't like they just put Niese on waivers. Let the Mets actually make a bad move before you blast it.

you're missing a decimal. if tejeda had an iso of .63, he'd be slugging 1.000.

Facepalm.

That's an embarrassing basic math error. I suppose it was because I was thinking in terms of "sixty ISO" or a "ninety ISO" instead of a "oh six oh ISO." Dumb.

This article is kind of awful. There isn't a single word in it that addresses Tejada's overall hitting stats, or ability, or potential. ISO is a very important detail but it's just a detail, and without reference to his batting average or eye, the analysis is meaningless.

Then there's a chart that suggests that Tejada's ISO will in fact probably improve significantly. But the author poo-poos his own chart, and draws a new conclusion, making reference to some other set of results that he chooses not to publish.

And then, there is absolutely no support for the conclusion:

Bottom line: Tejada’s defense likely will need to be all world for him to be a suitable option at shortstop going forward.

Where does this come from? If Tejada just repeats what he did last year he will be absolutely "suitable."

Maybe trading Niese and/or Davis (which would be even more senseless) will be the "Victor Zambrano" moment that will stop the Alderson worship of some Met fans. It's so eerie to hear "Sandy has a plan" used to explain otherwise crazy moves. Because that was exactly what was being said about Duquette before he gave away Kazmir.

And regarding Isolated Power: what was Rey Ordonez' ISO? Because when I watch Tejada "hit" I keep seeing Rey-Rey.

But some reports about a 5th starter quality pitcher being shopped are no reason to blast management.

Mmm, after reading Matthew Pouliot's piece on Niese i'm hoping the Mets don't get overwhelmed by a certain club, and retain the player.

Last year, Tejada had two separate stints with the Mets, both running for about two months. In his first stint, which covered 195 PA from May 18th to July 18th, he had an ISO of .024

His second stint, which covered 181 PA from August 8th to the end of the season, Tejada posted an ISO of .084

But Tejada's not in the lineup because of his slugging prowess. If you're going to make an age-based comparison, why not use OPS+? Tejada posted an OPS+ of 96 last year in 376 PA.

Only 116 players in MLB history have amassed 300 PA in a season by age 21 while playing at least half of their games at either 2B or SS. Only 41 of those were able to post an OPS+ of 90 or more. That list of 41 is filled with Hall of Famers.

Joe Tinker had an OPS+ of 98, Pee Wee Reese (97), Bill Mazeroski (96), Robin Yount (94) were ones that put up seasons close to Tejada's.

I'm impressed that Tejada did as well as he did in the majors at such a young age. I'm not worried about the ISO, especially with a 24.5 LD% in his two partial seasons in the majors. He makes contact and pitchers are not knocking the bat out of his hands.

And regarding Isolated Power: what was Rey Ordonez' ISO? Because when I watch Tejada "hit" I keep seeing Rey-Rey.

I think there's a crucial difference. Rey Ordonez was a pigheaded idiot, totally unable to help at the plate in any way. He couldn't bunt or take a pitch or do anything. He would actually swing for the fences. Tejada, on the other hand, might have similar natural ability, but he has the talent of self-awareness.

People don't seem to think of Andrus as a guy that "can't hit." Rather they see him for what he is, a good defensive SS who is young enough to improve at the plate.

Well, I look at Andrus and I see a guy that can't hit, so there's that.

I think if you settle for Tejada, that's fine (I guess) but you are not getting a guy who is going to actually help your offense. He is likely to be a throwback to the 70s, in which shortstops could and did survive on their glovework and no one much cared about their offense. If the typical SS in the years to come reverts to that, then perhaps he will be average, or hell, even above average for the position. But I would hope the Mets will look for an advantage there, and look for someone who can contribute more like an actual hitter. Better to have an above league-average hitter, independent of position, then settle for positional average offense.

If he can improve and develop, then that's great. It is indeed impressive that he has performed well at a young age in the majors, and more importantly, that he seemed to develop from his first not-so-impressive stint in New York. Improvement and learning from failure is a good sign for the future.

@37--In a word, yup. Salfino's article smacks of a guy who had ten minutes before deadline.

As for Tejada not being able to put together a Luis Castillo-like career, why not? Castillo's ability to steal was essentially negated by his ability to get caught stealing, so Castillo gets no edge there. Except for an apparent peak in its middle, for his career the numbers show Castillo to be an average defender. The numbers (and my splendid eye) show Tejada to be an average defender as well. Castillo had all of three seasons with an OPS+ significantly above Tejada's 2011 OPS+ of 96, and Castillo's career OPS+ was 92.

SSS and all that, but there's nothing to date on which to base an assertion that Tejada can't have a Castillo-like career. In fact, given no one has suggested Tejada was playing over his head in 2011, and assuming it's fair to toss Tejada's age 20 season when, as several posters have pointed out he had little business even being in the majors, Tejada has already shown the skills to be at least a Castillo-like player, with the added value of being able to competently play both SS and 2B.

edit: Elvis's comment bears repeating:

"I'm impressed that Tejada did as well as he did in the majors at such a young age. I'm not worried about the ISO, especially with a 24.5 LD% in his two partial seasons in the majors. He makes contact and pitchers are not knocking the bat out of his hands."

Better to have an above league-average hitter, independent of position, then settle for positional average offense.

Not that he is so far at 21, but how does above-average positional hitter get ignored in this equation?

But I would hope the Mets will look for an advantage there, and look for someone who can contribute more like an actual hitter. Better to have an above league-average hitter, independent of position, then settle for positional average offense.

You get your runs where you can. A middle infielder who gets on base at a .360 clip on the cheap is an asset (if that's what he winds up as) that you're turning into a liability. He'll probably be worth more to the Mets over the course of his career than Fernando Martinez.

The Mets had this problem where they didn't produce useful players-- Thole and Tejada look like ML-level regulars, just not great ones. Good teams have average players on them. Jose Reyes was a rare talent, but they can win without someone like him there. There were far worse players than Tejada playing short for playoff teams this year, making more money.

SO
SSS and all that, but there's nothing to date on which to base an assertion that Tejada can't have a Castillo-like career.

I agree Castillo's a good comp offensively, minus the steals, but I don't think Tejada's really peaked with the glove out there either, shifting back and forth between short and second, and working with an infield that changed faces pretty often. His defensive rep was really strong coming up. He definitely did a lot of learning on the job this year. And young players sometimes actually learn sometimes.

Preserved:
I think there's a crucial difference. Rey Ordonez was a pigheaded idiot, totally unable to help at the plate in any way. He couldn't bunt or take a pitch or do anything. He would actually swing for the fences. Tejada, on the other hand, might have similar natural ability, but he has the talent of self-awareness.

That's a damn accurate summary of my frustration watching Ordenez never learn to do anything better, even given 650 PAs a year.

In fact, given no one has suggested Tejada was playing over his head in 2011, and assuming it's fair to toss Tejada's age 20 season when,

I think it's possible that he was over his head. His .331 BABIP was the highest mark of his career (at any level), and his numbers in AAA were worse across the board.

Also, I'm not a fan of throwing out his first season - the circumstances have to be pretty overwhelming for me to ignore data. Maybe he shouldn't have been in the bigs, but it still happened, and the results are meaningful. I think his career OPS+ of 82 should be the jumping off point for any prediction. ZIPS gives him an OPS+ of 83, which suggests that his MLEs are all right around that area too.

But, the bottom line for me is this: he's good enough, and he's really young, so just let him play.

But I would hope the Mets will look for an advantage there, and look for someone who can contribute more like an actual hitter. Better to have an above league-average hitter, independent of position, then settle for positional average offense.

There is no reason to think that the Mets aren't doing exactly this. But they are broke. They can't go sign any difference making free agents and the only difference making SS on the market WAS Reyes and while guys like Rollins (who the Mets probably can't afford) and Jamey Carroll are good stopgaps a non-contender like the Mets probably doesn't need to be wasting their precious few dollars on them. It isn't like Tejada is blocking any other SS in the system who should be playing. I don't see any better option for the Mets in 2011. A 22 year old SS with a good glove and maybe a decent bat is a fine thing when he is making minimum wage. Especially when the team is totally broke.

But, the bottom line for me is this: he's good enough, and he's really young, so just let him play.

Exactly.

Hey, now that Reyes is gone, I certainly agree with the "let him play" approach. Let's see how much he can develop and improve, and if he can be an excellent glove and hold on to a .360 OBP, then by all means, he'll be a valuable player overall. With the complete lack of any power, however he won't be a net valuable offensive player, that's all. I am not going to project him to be that -- we've had that for the last seven years and anyone who is expecting that out of Ruben Tejada is almost certain to be disappointed. I am definitely not advocating that they look for a new SS right now, even as a low-priority move. Tejada should be the 2012 starting shortstop, no doubt.

But put it this way: the net change at that position is going to be one of the biggest reasons the Mets score a lot fewer runs in 2012 than they did in 2011. I don't blame Tejada for that, and it's an unfair standard to hold him to, but if you want to look for a real example of a guy who is actually a strong offensive player at shortstop, don't look at the guy taking over the job. Look at the guy who just left.

but if you want to look for a real example of a guy who is actually a strong offensive player at shortstop, don't look at the guy taking over the job. Look at the guy who just left.

I literally have no idea who that's addressed to-- no one argued that Tejada will be close to the offensive force Reyes was. This is a very bold way of stating the uncontested opinion that Jose Reyes is a better player than Ruben Tejada.

Yes, #46 was probably the least controversial thing I've ever seen here.

I did check to see if his age 20 and 21 numbers were substantially different and they were not, measured by ISO which is all we're caring about in that piece. And indeed his ISO was better at age 20 than at age 21. So I don't see how including it makes him look worse.

Was talking about Tejada here not Renteria. My bad. Was talking about Renteria in the prior sentence. I need an editor for my comments. Actually, it's the iPad's fault for being so hard to type on.

Yes, why would a team ever consider trading a guy with a 88 career ERA+?

I'm not sure you understood my point.

thru age 26, Ozzie Smith had an ISO of .046, and it wasn't even rising as he heaed toward his prime. He obviously never was going to be a decent MLB shortstop.

Re 35 except that Tejada has evidenced some pitch recognition ability coupled with a modicum of discipline and Rey Rey never had either.

Look the track record of high average high walk no power prospects tends to be poor eventually they hit a wall in AA or AAA or MLB where pitchers challenge them and basically say "im not walking you hit this" Tejada has made it this far he's an SS if he hits 90 we could live with it

Edit I really hate DROIDX autospell

I think the plan to look into trading Niese is sound. I like Niese, but I think he may be the new John Maine. He's young, and he strikes guys out, and at times he looks like he could be really, really good. But something always seems to go a little bit wrong. I still think he has a chance to be a #2 starter (seriously), but given where the Mets are in the success cycle, their relative wealth of pitching prospects and their paucity of position prospects, it makes sense to see what kind of offeres are out there for him.

Billy, if you think he has #2 potential, wouldn't it make sense to hang onto him for another year while he's cheap and see if he evolves into that? I agree with your general point that they should be exploring all options to bring talent into the organization. They're looking at dealing Parnell for a position player now, but no word on who. Unless it's a CF or 2B, this would seem like a weird move to me, given how think the 'pen is long-term. Though being the #4 in the pecking order isn't going to drive his stock up.