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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Thursday, February 07, 2008
Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling is not expected to be ready for the start of spring training because of shoulder issues, much like the ones that caused the club to shut him down for seven weeks last season, according to sources. His availability for Opening Day could also be in question, though one source familiar with Schilling’s condition said it was premature to speculate.
Details remain sketchy, but Schilling recently went to see Dr. Craig Morgan, the doctor who performed his shoulder surgery in 1995. Morgan, citing HIPPA regulations, referred all questions to Schilling, who has not yet responded to e-mails sent to him and his publicist seeking confirmation. Red Sox GM Theo Epstein e-mailed a “no comment” when asked about Schilling’s condition.
*** Schilling could be lost for season.
knucklehead7
Posted: February 07, 2008 at 07:22 PM | 79 comment(s)
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1. Guapo Posted: February 07, 2008 at 09:21 PM (#2685917)Unless somehow he injured it in those API workouts? Seems improbable.
It ain't easy being a windmill
(Emphasis mine.)
If that report is true, the Red Sox think Schilling is done. "Surgery", I assume, would be season-ending and probably career-ending.
If Schilling is done, there's a whole lot of backstory that's missing. How did he hurt himself? When did he hurt himself? Did he withhold information from the Sox?
why the hell should he do that? because theo is so dreamy?
Makes sense to me. They both seem more than ready.
If you're sitting in your chair wrong, it can be hell on your mouse shoulder.
It's times like these you're glad you have Tim Wakefield enslaved, eh?
Closer, yes, but Boston's rotation should still be better, as should their bullpen.
Also, Masterson is 22 and only made 10 starts in AA last year. Maybe I'm wrong, but I doubt he sees Boston this year.
216-146, 3.46 ERA (127 ERA+), 3 20-win seasons, greatest postseason record of a starting pitcher in the contemporary era
My guess is that's enough for the BBWAA, but it'll take a few ballots.
On the merits, counting postseason, peak, and his tiny number of unearned runs, I think Schilling is better than Mussina and about comparable to Kevin Brown. I think the HoF in/out line should be right about in between Mussina and Brown, so I like Schilling for the honor he's likely to get, eventually.
It's odd - if Masterson manages to develop a third pitch, he might have to stay in the minors longer to refine his stuff and get used to long outings. If he can't, he might be shuttled up to the majors more quickly for short relief.
I feel like Schilling will have the easiest time of that group with the BBWAA, even if Mussina finishes with better numbers. Postseason glory, and all.
I like the Yankee backend. Sox still pick it up on the front end.
Closer, yes, but Boston's rotation should still be better, as should their bullpen.
I'm not sure the Yanks have a bullpen, but I suppose I may have missed something. Mo, Hawkins, Farnsworth, Ramirez, Britton and one of the kids? Is Henn the lefty? Or do they pitch Ohlendorf and screw the matchup thing?
If Schilling's career is over, I agree with you on all counts as to what I expect to happen. Schilling would be hitting the ballot pretty much by himself as far as qualified pitchers are concerned (him and Clemens, and it's not clear whether Clemens will get McGwired), a year ahead of whoever retires in 2008 (probably Randy Johnson and Tom Glavine, possibly Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux and John Smoltz). I would expect Schilling won't make it on the first ballot, then will get pushed down by all the 300 game winners for a few years, then make it around his 8th or 9th year of eligibilty.
Schilling does belong.
True their pitching is still better, but the Yankees outscored them by 100 runs last year. If the Yankees rotation is only a little worse than Boston's, they should be the better team.
there's that guy they pick up from the Nats for Tyler Clippard who's name I would even attempt to type out.
yep, I agree at this stage he is THE definition of borderline HOFer, but will get in after 6-7 ballots(the 20 win seasons, the 3000K, and the postseason "heroics" will do it)
Schill has always been good about keeping his fat, ugly mug in front of the press so that'll help him.
The injury is very sus, maybe smacking Shonda around a bit? Yep, bad taste
And that is why its important to have 6 starters!
I think you have to add Joba as a long man for a couple of months. I think they are going to use a bunch of the young arms out there.
With his changeup, Ramirez should be very tough on lefties.
CP, I'm of the opinion that one of either Joba or Kennedy starts in the bullpen, which certainly helps. I just don't see Mussina starting the year in the bullpen without a whole lot of drama (I definitely don't think he's a bad dude, but come on, he's a "potential hall of famer," veteran, etc).
I've seen, but can't recall the specifics of, some pretty convincing arguments that when factor in unearned runs, Schilling has had better value than Brown. I think they should both be in, but it'll be interesting to follow the debates on which is better, especially when Schilling gets in and Brown doesn't.
there's that guy they pick up from the Nats for Tyler Clippard who's name I would even attempt to type out.
Oh yeah, he's supposed to have a great arm. He's not listed on their roster, I hope they don't #### him up.
They've already said Joba is starting in the pen as a long man. I think they want to keep his IP under 150 this year. He'll relieve until somebody gets hurt or Mussina shows he's done.
211-144, 127 ERA+ - Brown
216-146, 127 ERA+ - Schilling
Schilling is probably somewhat better when you account for the UER totals, but that's only going to make them non-identical, not notably different. Brown's got 1997, a season far better than Schilling's best. Schilling has the postseason. I'll take Schilling, but it's close.
In the voting, Brown is going to get screwed. I think Schilling will take a little while to get elected because of the 216 wins. That's extremely low for a recent BBWAA selection. You have to go back to 1990 and 1991 to find a BBWAA starting pitcher under 300 wins, and Jenkins and Palmer had 284 and 268 respectively.
Bert Blyleven's going to go in in 2010, and (shudder) Jack Morris may also make it before Schilling and company hit the ballot.
Anyway, I think Brown is right on the borderline and Schilling is over it. In the article I wrote about various pitchers a few days ago, I concluded that:
And I rate Brown and Mussina as ahead of the other four non-Dutch guys; it's close, but I think both are worthy. Schilling and Smoltz, to me, are unquestionably worthy.
To be clear, I think he should go in the Hall of Fame, but it's hard for me to think that he will.
The thing I really like about Albaladejo is that he can consistently throw his breaking ball for strikes, and generally has solid control. It sounds real elementary, but these attributes are huge for a reliever. He should definitely make the bullpen out of spring training. 12-2 SO to BB ratio in a very small MLB sample last season.
I’m a huge Yankee fan, and thus automatically despise Schilling the pitcher, but you never want to see a guy’s career end because of an injury, especially in the off season. That’s tough.
Kind of pity, because his peak was stratospheric and he was a rare bird, a sinkerballer who could rack up the Ks. Fun guy to watch, because he threw really hard, and when he was on, it seemed impossible to hit the ball hard off him. Sort of like Brandon Webb on steroids. Literally.
I'd say this is mostly due to his being an extreme groundballer vs. Schilling a flyballer. Your idea may have some merit but it probably accounts for very little of the UER difference.
And I agree with the several other Primates who've said that the HoF bar should be somewhere around Brown and Mussina. Schilling and Smoltz are maybe borderline but definitely Hallworthy, and they're both above the other two.
Wow. Did you look at Smoltz's career totals?
207-145, 127 ERA+
Double wow.
Of course that's slightly misleading on both ends. His ERA+ will be propped up by his work in the bullpen, but that also serves to drive his win total down. Still weird though.
An Ellsbury/Lowrie/Masterson package would definitely look better today than it did last week.
Still, Schilling was their #4 starter (by projected ERA) and was never in the plans for more than 20-25 starts. I'm not going to shed too many tears.
You don't think Schilling goes straight to BBTN? I always assumed he'd be a regular on ESPN immediately upon retirement.
It's sort of a shame that this just came to light about 2 seconds after the Santana deal got wrapped up, isn't it? Lousy timing. I think the Red Sox are a good solid starter short of where I'd be comfortable right now.
Even better if he does go to BBTN, Fat Al. Put him up there with Clemens and watch the fun begin.
IP
3256 - Brown
3261 - Schilling
3367 - Smoltz
K
2397 - Brown
2975 - Smoltz
3116 - Schilling
With those 207 wins, Smoltz also has 154 saves. The difference created by the ease of pitching fewer inning versus the value of the extra leverage of those innings = hell if I know.
The post season is really where Brown slides off this scale:
11-2, 133 IP, 2.23 ERA, 120 K - Schilling
15-4, 207 IP, 2.65 ERA, 194 K - Smoltz (4 saves)
5-5, 81 IP, 4.19 ERA, 71 K - Brown
For his regular season (1 CYA), closing, and post season prowess, and his spot as one of Atlanta's historic "Big 3" -- and for the fact that he may catch up to and surpass Schilling in wins and Ks -- Smoltz is the most likely to get in.
For his regular season, and post season prowess, and especially for his iconic role in two huge post season series wins over the Yankees, I think Schilling will also get in.
I think Brown is the least of these three, his "higher peak" (which really comes down to one especially great year) notwithstanding. I don't know if he deserves enshrinement, but I agree with those who don't think he is likely to get it.
But haven't they known for a little while, like probably before the Santana trade? This seems to have been kept under wraps. I think a whole appeal to mlb office happened. I'd guess it's been known for a couple of weeks. I think the Sox regained their senses and realized they were not in a desperate situation regarding their rotation and avoided the huge contract Santana was definitely going to get.
I'll take Smoltz for that honor. ERA is .4 higher but he has 70 more innings, and his WS ERA is his best of any postseason round, at 2.47 in 51 innings. Of course, Schilling is 2.06 in 48 WS innings.
I can see it now, and I'm already cringing...
I'm not sure about this, Justin. The voters seem to pay attention to postseason performance -- well, I mean that they write about it a lot; I'm not sure how much weight even they give it in HOF voting, other than for tiebreakers. (EDITED) Is there a pitcher who is in the HOF with postseason performance being a significant part of his case? (Ruffing maybe?) I would say Catfish but he wasn't going to be denied once he had the 20-win seasons and the reputation as a winner.
22.3 IP, 1.20 ERA, 25 K, 7 BB
And for all that, he got no two losses and a no-decision as Morris, Pettitte and Clemens all pitched gems.
I think Kevin Brown has a good chance of not even getting 5% of the vote and dropping off the first year. He has the misfortune of playing at the same time as some all time greats, and I think that Dag Nabbit has done a good job of showing that the current voters are electing fewer players than in the past.
Not trading for Santana will be one of Theo's biggest mistakes.
Reading the backstory a bit, I guess it's clear they've known about Schilling's problems for a while. It's surprising, then, that they weren't more aggressive in going after Johan.
Early in the negotiations, it seemed that the Red Sox were pushing Lester and the Twins were asking Ellsbury (or more likely, asking for Ellsbury AND Lester). In the final week, the Red Sox reportedly pulled Lester off the table -- perhaps we now know why? Trading Lester for Santana is an upgrade, for sure, but it doesn't add depth. Would you trade Santana for Ellsbury+Lowrie+Masterson over Gomez+Guerra+Humber+Mulvey? Gomez has the highest ceiling of the bunch, even if he is less likely to help the Twins contend in 2008.
from boston.com
I can see it now, and I'm already cringing...
That may hold for writers who weren't watching baseball in the 90's, but for those who were, Smoltz's reputation is pretty much that of a postseason God. He was the only one of Atlanta's Big Three to be below a 3.00 ERA in all three rounds of the postseason, and finished overall at 2.65 with 207 innings. That's better than Whitey Ford on both counts, and Ford is usually considered as one of the Gold Standards for the postseason.
Funny thing about that Big Three. All of them pitched better in the World Series than they did in the other two rounds, and yet the Braves only won one Series in all that time.
Talk about your catch 22s. On one side, you want your team to be in the playoffs. On the other, you'd have to listen to Schilling talk. Ugh.
i got $1.00 bid out on the fool. just opened with him ...
now i have to carry the s.o.b. on my DL spot all year, just in case.
have to look at his name daily!
grrr
And Bob Feller?
EDIT: Also the A's had Plank, Bender and Waddell
I'm guessing here that Schilling might choose to not undergo surgery simply in order to have a better chance of pitching this year (which at his age might be his last chance to pitch).
It's just incredible, isn't it? That's a full season's worth of brilliant pitching against the toughest teams in baseball. Definitely what puts him over, imo.
Plus, it (presumably) wouldn't involve the months of nervous fumbling that most of Theo's trades (or, rather, trade attempts) involve.
God I hope not. If the health of an old, slightly above average pitcher signed to a one year contract had any real impact on whether Theo pulls the trigger on a 3+ prospect $150M acquisition, then I'd have serious concerns about the longterm competitiveness of this team.
I hope Schilling can still give us a quality half season, but if not, I'll be pretty psyched to see what the kids can do. Nothing against Schill, but from the irrational fanboy perspective I think this season just got more exciting.
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