Here we are in 2012, and Jackson is once again defying the prognosticators with a big season. If he hadn’t missed three weeks with an abdominal strain, he’d be right there in the MVP runner-up discussion with his teammate Cabrera and a few others (behind Mike Trout). Jackson is once again producing a high BABIP—up to .405 after his four-hit day on Sunday.
Maybe that .405 mark is unsustainable, but Jackson has shown growth at the plate in many areas. His strikeout rate, while still high, is down 5 percent from 2011; his walk rate is up more than 4 percent; after chasing after 27 percent of pitches outside the strike zone his first two seasons, that’s down to less than 22 percent in 2012; with 11 home runs, he has already topped the 10 he hit in 2011.
There’s real growth here. Plus, it’s important to point out that it’s unusual for a hitter to have multiple seasons with a BABIP around .390. Derek Jeter has had seasons of .386, .391 and .396; Bobby Abreu had two seasons of .391 and .393; Rod Carew had seasons of .381, .391 and .408; Ichiro Suzuki is a bit of a unique hitter, but had seasons of .384, .389 and .399. Like those players, Jackson has good speed; infielders have to respect that and maybe play a step more shallow, which helps a few more grounders to sneak into the outfield. He has enough power that the outfielders have to respect that, so they can’t cut off boopers and shallow fly balls.
It’s time for number crunchers to admit: Austin Jackson has become one of the best all-around players in the American League. And he looks pretty good as a leadoff hitter.
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1. Harveys WallbangersThere are only 17. Some current examples are Howie Kendrick, Delmon Young and Michael Bourn. In this group, the highest career ISO belongs to Bill Hall at 188. Cory Snyder, Miguel Olivo and Jose Herandez are in the 165-180 range. There are some pretty good players here but mainly of the wicked fast variety (Willie Wilson, Willie McGee, Mookie Wilson and Ron LeFlore who should have been a Willie or a Wilson). Three of those 17 played extensively for the Cubs (Dunston, Patterson and Jose Hernandez).
I have no idea if that's predictive of anything, just found it odd. If Jackson maintains a walk rate close to this year's it will be a moot point for him soon enough.
Y'think?
Or is Jackson just the type of player who has high BABIPs year in and year out? Is there such a player?
I remember one about Cameron Maybin's extension in which someone said the Tigers would be far better off if they still had him. (I assume as a straight, "he's better than Jackson" line rather than not doing the Cabrera trade)
DET-Austin Jackson, 11.6 fWAR
ARI-Ian Kennedy, 9.7 fWAR
ARI-Edwin Jackson, 8.9 fWAR (most of this was not with ARI)
DET-Max Scherzer, 8.8 fWAR
DET-Phil Coke, 3.7 fWAR
DET-Daniel Schlereth, -0.6
DET>ARI/NYY at this point, right? IIRC, at the time the thought was good deal for the Yankees, good deal for Detroit and WTF is ARI thinking.
What a great deal. The returns for all three teams likely exceeded expectations. That can't happen very often.
Yeah. Just not .405 high. .360 seems to be the upper limit on a 'true talent level' basis these days, though I suppose it could go higher with someone who was a master at bunting for hits.
My thoughts on Jackson was that I thought that at his age, it was possible for him to cut his strikeouts and increase his power (Abreu did the same thing early in his career), and he's done both. Amazingly, he's combined that with another huge BABIP year.
Since 1990, there have been 16 qualifying seasons with a BABIP over 390, headed of course by Jose Hernandez's 404. David Wright had his crazy year as did BJ Upton. Roger Cedeno had a season at 393 and Chone Figgins tossed in a 391. The only repeats on the list are Jeter and Abreu -- if Jackson keeps it up, this will be his second.
Post-integration, min 3000 PA, only 17 players have managed a BABIP of 340 or better, led by Carew at 359 then Jeter at 355. There are a LOT of current players on this list -- including Abreu and Ichiro in their swan songs, 9 of the 17 are currently active. John Kruk is probably the most surprising name here.
And you can ignore my earlier speedy comment -- a lot of these guys aren't that fast. It helps but Miguel Cabrera ain't beating out a lot of infield singles.
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