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Monday, January 28, 2013
Damn Secret Society He-Man-Haters Club!
All that said, three reasons he’ll have trouble getting in on the first ballot:
1. He only spent five seasons as a full-time first baseman. He did play a higher percentage of his games in the field than Edgar Martinez—42 percent to 28 percent—but the DH factor could work against him.
2. The Edgar Martinez factor. How much better than Martinez was Thomas? Thomas does lead slightly in career Baseball-Reference WAR, 69.7 to 64.4, and certainly has big edges in home runs (521 to 309) and RBIs (1704 to 1261), but if you add up their 10 best seasons, Martinez edges out Thomas 56.1 WAR to 56.0. Their final slash lines are pretty similar: .301/.419/.555 for Thomas, .312/.418/.515 for Martinez (Thomas played 232 more games). The point here is that Martinez actually compares quite favorably with Thomas, but has languished below 40 percent of the vote.
3. The first-year bias. Simply put: Many voters won’t vote for Thomas on the first ballot because they won’t perceive him as a first-ballot guy.
Real numbers or not.
Posted: January 28, 2013 at 01:09 PM | 40 comment(s)
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