That’s really a two-part question, of course: (1) Does he deserve to make the Hall of Fame. (2) What are his chances?
The initial reaction of many may be to compare him to Don Mattingly, another first baseman who had a high peak value but suffered back issues that hurt his effectiveness. As you can see from the list below of recent first basemen, however, Mattingly isn’t really in the same ballpark as Helton. The list includes each player’s career WAR and then their best five consecutive seasons.
Jeff Bagwell 79.5 (five-year peak: 34.4)
Jim Thome 72.8 (26.9)
Rafael Palmeiro 71.8 (26.3)
Mark McGwire 62.0 (29.8)
Todd Helton 61.1 (37.4)
John Olerud 58.0 (27.0)
Will Clark 56.4 (27.7)
Fred McGriff 52.6 (26.7)
Jason Giambi 51.2 (34.7)
Carlos Delgado 44.3 (26.1)
Don Mattingly 42.2 (28.8)
Helton is way ahead of Mattingly in both career value and peak value—Helton, in fact, has the best five-year peak on the board. That period ran from 2000 to 2004, when he hit .349/.450/.643 while averaging 37 home runs and 123 RBIs. While Helton hit .300 five times after that, he was never the same in the power department, reaching 20 home runs just once and never again reaching 100 RBIs.
...For me, Helton falls just under the line. Take away Coors Field, and I wonder if he’s John Olerud. That’s not meant as a criticism, just that nobody thinks of Olerud as a Hall of Famer. I think Helton’s initial time on the ballot will mirror Walker’s—about 20 percent of the vote.
Posted: September 16, 2013 at 05:04 AM | 61 comment(s)
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