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Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Schoenfield: Orioles starting to look like team of destiny

Mannyfest Destiny or Baltimore Exceptionalism?

Here’s the thing about baseball in 2012: The difference between the best teams and the worst teams isn’t all that extreme. The New York Yankees, for example, have outscored their opponents by 99 runs. The Minnesota Twins, with one of the worst starting rotation in recent memory, have been outscored by 114 runs. That’s 213 runs, which is significant, but maybe not as large as you might imagine. The Twins have played 129 games, so we’re talking about 1.7 runs per game. What’s 1.7 runs? A double here, a single there, an extra walk here, one play made on defense. It’s not that much, but those three or four plays a game add up over 162 games.

This gets us to the Baltimore Orioles, the team that won’t go away. For the past couple of months, most analysts have predicted them to slowly slide out of the playoff chase, especially those of us who look at the numbers. We kept to their negative run differential: It will catch up to them eventually, we said. The talent base isn’t there; they won’t keep winning all these one-run games; their luck will run out.

...Watching the Orioles the past two games, I’ve gotten a little bit of that “destiny” feeling. Lew Ford, out of the majors since 2007, homered both nights. Nate McLouth hit the big two-run home run Monday and added three hits Tuesday. As a Mariners fan, it reminds me of the miracle 1995 season, when the M’s rallied from a 12.5-game deficit in late August to win the American League West. The team featured memorable big moments from guys such as Alex Diaz and Doug Strange and a way-past-his-prime Vince Coleman.

The Orioles are 24-6 (a .800 winning percentage) in one-run games, which would easily be the best record in one-run games during the wild-card era (the 2003 Giants went 28-12, a .700 mark). In fact, that would be the best of any team since 1901—the 1981 Orioles went 21-7 (.750). Of the top 10 one-run records from 1996 to 2011, eight of the teams made the postseason.

Team of destiny? Maybe, just maybe.

Repoz Posted: August 29, 2012 at 08:48 AM | 64 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: orioles

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1. jyjjy Posted: August 29, 2012 at 09:11 AM (#4220974)

so we’re talking about 1.7 runs per game. What’s 1.7 runs? A double here, a single there, an extra walk here, one play made on defense. It’s not that much

The stupid, it burns! Aaarg!

2. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: August 29, 2012 at 09:14 AM (#4220979)

This article has a kiss of death feel to it. It's like the manager getting the dreaded vote of confidence. Oriole fans deserve a winner, it's been a long time, but as soon as I saw this headline my first thought was "8 game losing streak starting...now"

3. Gamingboy Posted: August 29, 2012 at 09:15 AM (#4220980)

We're doomed.

4. Willie Horton Hears The Who (Dan Lee) Posted: August 29, 2012 at 09:16 AM (#4220982)

I'm George. George McFly. I'm your density.

5. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine

Posted: August 29, 2012 at 09:16 AM (#4220983)

This article is good news for the A's!

6. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: August 29, 2012 at 09:19 AM (#4220986)

I had the same reaction. Shut the hell up Dave!

7. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: August 29, 2012 at 09:26 AM (#4220992)

I wonder if anyone saw this article and didn't have that reaction. Maybe he's going for a double reverse jinx kind of thing.

8. TomH Posted: August 29, 2012 at 09:27 AM (#4220995)

What is REALLY sad is that the comments on the ESPN site make this group appear to have the brilliance of Einstein, with the wit and good sense of Twain.

We still don't seem to embody the caring spirit of Mother Theresa or courage of Mandela tho....

9. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine

Posted: August 29, 2012 at 09:33 AM (#4221002)

What is REALLY sad is that the comments on the ESPN site make this group appear to have the brilliance of Einstein, with the wit and good sense of Twain.

Reading the comments at ESPN is never a good idea unless you want your fiery misanthropy stoked.

10. Bourbon Samurai Posted: August 29, 2012 at 09:37 AM (#4221011)

My rooting interests this year are:

1 and 1a: Nats and A's
2. Pirates
3. O's
4. Reds

11. DKDC Posted: August 29, 2012 at 09:43 AM (#4221023)

Jinxes notwithstanding, August has been a pretty awesome run to keep the Orioles in the thick of it. But there's still a lot of baseball to play.

It would be nice if the A’s would lose every once in a while.

12. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine

Posted: August 29, 2012 at 09:48 AM (#4221029)

It would be nice if the A’s would lose every once in a while.

On the other hand, there's no reason the A's and O's can't both make the playoffs. Let's join forces against our mutual enemy, the Rays. Though their nickname rhymes with ours, they are no kin to us! (The wildcard scrum does have kind of a Game of Thrones vibe to it this year.)

13. McCoy Posted: August 29, 2012 at 09:53 AM (#4221035)

The Rays falling out just means both teams get to the one game play in. What we really need to get both teams into the playoffs is for both or either Texas and NY to fall out of the lead.

14. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine

Posted: August 29, 2012 at 10:06 AM (#4221050)

The Rays falling out just means both teams get to the one game play in.

Play in, play off. It's good enough for me. Since both teams were projected to be terrible, I don't think either fanbase will turn their nose up at it.

15. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: August 29, 2012 at 10:11 AM (#4221056)

For all the talk about last year's Game 162 excitement being lost with the added playoff team this year's race is shaping up to be awfully exciting. Last year was unusual in any context but it is starting to look like we are going to come down to the last week of the season with a lot of uncertainty for the AL Wild Card and AL Central races. The NL Wild Card and NL West aren't quite as tight but certainly could be there as well.

That many of these races involve teams that haven't had a lot of success in recent years makes it even better.

16. JJ1986 Posted: August 29, 2012 at 10:12 AM (#4221057)

(The wildcard scrum does have kind of a Game of Thrones vibe to it this year.)

The Tigers are the Lannisters - given every advantage (payroll, division), but still keep messing up.
The A's are the Starks - best at what they do, but faced with too many disadvantages.
The Angels are Renly - Early favorites, but a paper tiger with no real chance.
The Orioles are the Greyjoys - clearly the worst and happy just to be mentioned.
The Rays are Stannis - No one actually likes them, but still the favorites.

17. DKDC Posted: August 29, 2012 at 10:19 AM (#4221066)

Play in, play off. It's good enough for me. Since both teams were projected to be terrible, I don't think either fanbase will turn their nose up at it.

Personally, I’m getting greedy.

If I’d been offered an 81-win season in March, I’d have taken it in a heartbeat. Now, I want the division.

18. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine

Posted: August 29, 2012 at 10:21 AM (#4221069)

19. escabeche Posted: August 29, 2012 at 10:25 AM (#4221072)

I think it's a mistake to project the rest of the Orioles' season from their overall Pythag, which remains well under .500. Come the first week of September, the rotation is Hammel-Chen-Tillman-Gonzalez-Saunders or Hammel-Chen-Tillman-Gonzalez-Johnson, I guess? Either way, it's a very different staff from the Hamell-Chen-Arrieta-Matusz-Hunter that started the season. The Orioles have scored as many as they've given up in the second half, and I don't think it's crazy to envision them playing .500 ball the rest of the way. That gives them 88 wins, which very well might be enough for the wild card.

What's great is that we still have lots of head-to-head matchups with the Rays, including the last three games of the season in Tampa Bay, so our fate is very much in our own hands.

Rays, A's, O's, and Tigers ALL playing .600 or better for August -- nobody's blinking down the stretch and it's awesome.

20. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine

Posted: August 29, 2012 at 10:36 AM (#4221081)

Rays, A's, O's, and Tigers ALL playing .600 or better for August -- nobody's blinking down the stretch and it's awesome.

The A's have what's left of the Red Sox once they leave Cleveland and then it gets tough, especially with the Mariners playing well (those bastards). Hold onto your butts.

21. Gamingboy Posted: August 29, 2012 at 10:46 AM (#4221088)

The Tigers are the Lannisters - given every advantage (payroll, division), but still keep messing up.
The A's are the Starks - best at what they do, but faced with too many disadvantages.
The Angels are Renly - Early favorites, but a paper tiger with no real chance.
The Orioles are the Greyjoys - clearly the worst and happy just to be mentioned.
The Rays are Stannis - No one actually likes them, but still the favorites.

Who are the Night's Watch, and if the Tigers are Lannisters, who is Tyrion?

22. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine

Posted: August 29, 2012 at 10:53 AM (#4221099)

Who are the Night's Watch, and if the Tigers are Lannisters, who is Tyrion?

They Yanks are the Night's Watch. They are always there and they play in a cold, sterile environment and they are surrounded by aggressive zombies.

23. Greg K Posted: August 29, 2012 at 11:03 AM (#4221112)

They Yanks are the Night's Watch. They are always there and they play in a cold, sterile environment and they are surrounded by aggressive zombies.

And their players toil under a vow of celibacy!

24. JJ1986 Posted: August 29, 2012 at 11:09 AM (#4221116)

if the Tigers are Lannisters, who is Tyrion?

Brandon Inge, who switched sides in the middle.

25. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: August 29, 2012 at 11:10 AM (#4221119)

And their players toil under a vow of celibacy!

That's not true

26. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine

Posted: August 29, 2012 at 11:14 AM (#4221123)

That's not true

It's a vow of celibacy. I wouldn't expect them to he honorable enough to keep it, the blackguards.

27. SG Posted: August 29, 2012 at 11:14 AM (#4221124)

I think it's a mistake to project the rest of the Orioles' season from their overall Pythag, which remains well under .500.

I think this an extremely important point that gets glossed over too easily. You need to look at the roster the Orioles have right now to project them over the rest of the season. What they did with Jake Arrieta and Zach Britton in the rotation and with people like Miguel Socolovich and Jason Berken giving up 15 runs in 11 innings tells us very little about how good they are right now.

28. TomH Posted: August 29, 2012 at 11:21 AM (#4221135)

Agree, but....
a) the bullpen has been insanely good. Surreal. You wanna project THAT going forward?
b) even while they have been outscoring their opponents a bit of late, there is still lots of 2nd-order luck involved; run-clutch in addition to their early-season HUGE game-clutch.
c) their schedule won't be easy in Sep.

I would LOVE to see the O's take down the Yankees. But my honest assessment is they go <.500 from here on out.

29. McCoy Posted: August 29, 2012 at 11:25 AM (#4221144)

If I remember correctly the O's had the toughest end of season schedule of all the contenders and Oakland had the easiest. Granted that was before the Red Sox sent their team away and the Blue Jays collapsed so I have no idea how the contenders' schedules look now.

30. Chris Fluit Posted: August 29, 2012 at 11:25 AM (#4221145)

To get all historical here, I like the parallel between this year's Orioles team and the 1890s dynasty. The 19th century dynasty obviously had a much better line-up but they had the same propensity to end the season with a near-complete turnover of the rotation.

31. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine

Posted: August 29, 2012 at 11:31 AM (#4221155)

If I remember correctly the O's had the toughest end of season schedule of all the contenders and Oakland had the easiest.

I guess if you consider 10 of the last 13 games against the Yanks and Rangers easy.

32. Dangerous Dean Posted: August 29, 2012 at 11:33 AM (#4221157)

I hate to pee in your breakfast cereal, but I am a Ranger fan and would be happy to see the Os in the playoffs. Texas has beaten the Os like an army mule this year. Not only have the Rangers won 5 of 7 games but none of the 5 wins were close while both of the losses could have gone either way.

Of all the possible teams Texas could play in the playoffs, the Os would be my choice. And yes, I know that kind of scenario usually means an upset. It's a chance I will take.

Congrats on the surprisingly good year. If you beat us in the playoffs, kudos to you because you deserve it.

33. McCoy Posted: August 29, 2012 at 11:33 AM (#4221158)

I guess if you consider 10 of the last 13 games against the Yanks and Rangers easy.

I don't but when we were discussing the schedule we weren't just talking about the last 13 games.

34. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine

Posted: August 29, 2012 at 11:37 AM (#4221162)

I don't but when we were discussing the schedule we weren't just talking about the last 13 games.

Look at the last month of the A's schedule and tell me that #### is easy.

35. McCoy Posted: August 29, 2012 at 11:38 AM (#4221164)

Look at the last month of the A's schedule and tell me that #### is easy.

I just said I don't think the last 13 games of the season are easy. What more do you want? My blood?

36. McCoy Posted: August 29, 2012 at 11:41 AM (#4221168)

I wrote this back on August 6th when there was about 54 games left to go. As it turns out at that point it was the Tigers with easiest schedule from there on out.

Well, I doubt too many teams play a bunch of games against all three first place teams and two or three of the other WC contenders from here on out like the Orioles do.

Orioles-10 games left against bad records out 54
A's-19/54
Angels-18/53
Tigers-25/54
Rays-9/54
Red Sox-11/53

So the Orioles fit right in with their divisional mates but are at a distinct disadvantage when compared to their out of division foes.

37. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine

Posted: August 29, 2012 at 11:41 AM (#4221169)

I just said I don't think the last 13 games of the season are easy. What more do you want? My blood?

I'd say admit you were wrong but that would break the internet.

38. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: August 29, 2012 at 11:43 AM (#4221171)

I guess if you consider 10 of the last 13 games against the Yanks and Rangers easy.

Probably not "easy" but depending on the standings, that might work out for the A's. If those two have clinched (or effectively so) one might rather be playing them then the other contenders.

39. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine

Posted: August 29, 2012 at 11:45 AM (#4221176)

Probably not "easy" but depending on the standings, that might work out for the A's. If those two have clinched (or effectively so) one might rather be playing them then the other contenders.

Things are so muddled I don't even know who to root for in other games. Did I want the Rays or Rangers to win last night? No idea. Bah. Stupid, glorious, insane, satanic, wonderful wildcards...

40. McCoy Posted: August 29, 2012 at 11:48 AM (#4221185)

I'd say admit you were wrong but that would break the internet.

Wrong on what? I specifically said that one had a tough end of season schedule and one had an easy end of season schedule but that was before changes were made to opposing teams' rosters and that things have changed to the point that I don't really know now who has the easiest schedule. Everything I said in my first post points to looking at the schedule at some point in the past and looking at games that in the present have already been played. I was then asked if I thought the last 13 games were easy. I answered that I do not and that when we were discussing the schedule we weren't just talking about the last 13 games.

41. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip

Posted: August 29, 2012 at 11:53 AM (#4221190)

If the first four of the Yankee rotation consists of Kuroda, the Hughes of late, and a fully healthy Sabathia and Pettitte, they've got an excellent chance of winning it all. But if we get the Bad Hughes of the early season, another Sabathia injury, and Pettitte unable to come back to his June form, I'm not even sure that Baltimore or the Rays won't wind up passing them and win the division. Stranger things have happened.

42. Juilin Sandar to Conkling Speedwell (Arjun) Posted: August 29, 2012 at 11:55 AM (#4221191)

The Tigers are the Lannisters - given every advantage (payroll, division), but still keep messing up.
The A's are the Starks - best at what they do, but faced with too many disadvantages.
The Angels are Renly - Early favorites, but a paper tiger with no real chance.
The Orioles are the Greyjoys - clearly the worst and happy just to be mentioned.
The Rays are Stannis - No one actually likes them, but still the favorites.

This is actually pretty good. Nice!

43. DKDC Posted: August 29, 2012 at 11:56 AM (#4221194)

I hate to pee in your breakfast cereal, but I am a Ranger fan and would be happy to see the Os in the playoffs. Texas has beaten the Os like an army mule this year. Not only have the Rangers won 5 of 7 games but none of the 5 wins were close while both of the losses could have gone either way.

The Rangers have beaten the Orioes this season in games started by Hunter (twice), Gonzalez, Arrieta, and Matusz, and they’ve poured it on against relievers such as Stu Pomeranz and Zach Phillips.

Those aren’t the Orioles they’d be facing in a playoff game. The two games the Orioes won against the Rangers were started by Chen and Tillman, who would be in the playoff rotation.

Of course, it’s perfectly reasonable to want to face the Orioles anyways because they are probably the worst team in the playoff hunt.

44. SG Posted: August 29, 2012 at 11:57 AM (#4221195)

Here's how I have every team's strength of schedule over the rest of the season, from most difficult to easiest. It's basically just opponent's expected log 5 winning percentage for each game adjusted for home field advantage summed up and divided by total games.

Team - SOS
Orioles : .531
Blue Jays : .526
Athletics : .523
Angels : .522
Rays : .521
Marlins : .521
Mariners : .521
Dodgers : .518
Astros : .513
Padres : .513
Nationals : .510
Red Sox : .510
Mets : .509
Indians : .504
Royals : .502
Rockies : .500
Cubs : .496
Rangers : .492
Brewers : .492
Phillies : .489
Diamondbacks : .482
Braves : .481
Cardinals : .481
Giants : .472
Pirates : .472
Tigers : .471
Reds : .468

45. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 29, 2012 at 12:01 PM (#4221197)

Did you forget the Yankees?

46. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine

Posted: August 29, 2012 at 12:02 PM (#4221198)

Here's how I have every team's strength of schedule over the rest of the season, from most difficult to easiest. It's basically just opponent's expected log 5 winning percentage adjusted for home field advantage summed up.

Team - SOS
Orioles : .531
Blue Jays : .526
Athletics : .523

Well ####, now I have to admit I was wrong, which I won't do because I don't want to break the internet. I will not be responsible for the hundreds of thousands of wanks being wanked right now not coming to climax.

47. escabeche Posted: August 29, 2012 at 12:03 PM (#4221201)

Very nice. Conforms with my feeling that the Tigers shouldn't really be thought of as 2.0 GB.

48. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: August 29, 2012 at 12:03 PM (#4221203)

Remember how last season the Rays had no chance because the Red Sox were playing the Orioles while the Rays were playing the Yankees?

Yeah.

49. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 29, 2012 at 12:04 PM (#4221204)

That looks like some really important information for handicapping these races.

AL Wild Card:

Orioles : .531
Athletics : .523
Angels : .522
Rays : .521
Tigers : .471

NL East:

Nationals : .510
Braves : .481

NL West:

Dodgers : .518
Giants : .472

50. escabeche Posted: August 29, 2012 at 12:04 PM (#4221205)

[q]Those aren’t the Orioles they’d be facing in a playoff game.[/q]

In the first half they didn't have to face Nate McClutch!

51. The Long Arm of Rudy Law Posted: August 29, 2012 at 12:04 PM (#4221206)

Here's how I have every team's strength of schedule

It will be a cold day in hell before I recognize the White Sox or Yankees as teams!

52. TerpNats Posted: August 29, 2012 at 12:08 PM (#4221210)

To get all historical here, I like the parallel between this year's Orioles team and the 1890s dynasty.

The 2012 Orioles play dirty baseball? Buck Showalter is the reincarnation of Ned Hanlon?

53. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine

Posted: August 29, 2012 at 12:09 PM (#4221211)

Very nice. Conforms with my feeling that the Tigers shouldn't really be thought of as 2.0 GB.

Stupid crappy AL Central.

54. SoSH U at work Posted: August 29, 2012 at 12:14 PM (#4221221)

Very nice. Conforms with my feeling that the Tigers shouldn't really be thought of as 2.0 GB.

So what should they be thought of? Based on WP, what record should the Tigers be expected to post over their final 34 compared to the Orioles/A's over their final 34?

55. Don Malcolm

Posted: August 29, 2012 at 12:16 PM (#4221224)

Rudy has it right. It would be important info IF we had all the relevant teams in the sample.

SG, here's a thought experiment that maybe you can actualize for us. Take the same approach, but do it for LAST YEAR at this time. What did SoS have to say going into last September, populated as it was by two of the most dramatic collapses in baseball history?

56. McCoy Posted: August 29, 2012 at 12:37 PM (#4221259)

SG,

If it is possible could you run the same study starting from August 6th?

57. SG Posted: August 29, 2012 at 12:57 PM (#4221298)

It will be a cold day in hell before I recognize the White Sox or Yankees as teams!

Derp...

Twins .491
White Sox .477
Yankees .496

SG, here's a thought experiment that maybe you can actualize for us. Take the same approach, but do it for LAST YEAR at this time. What did SoS have to say going into last September, populated as it was by two of the most dramatic collapses in baseball history?

I can do this, I just have to find last year's spreadsheet which I don't have here at work.

If it is possible could you run the same study starting from August 6th?

Yep.

Team - SOS
Blue Jays : .535
Orioles : .529
Angels : .525
Astros : .519
Padres : .516
Indians : .512
Rays : .511
Phillies : .509
Royals : .509
Marlins : .509
Red Sox : .505
Mariners : .504
Athletics : .504
Dodgers : .501
Twins : .501
Yankees : .501
Mets : .500
Rangers : .497
Cubs : .495
Pirates : .495
Nationals : .494
Giants : .491
Rockies : .490
Cardinals : .490
Tigers : .486
Diamondbacks : .486
Braves : .482
White Sox : .481
Brewers : .479
Reds : .471

58. What's the realistic upside, RMc? Posted: August 29, 2012 at 01:13 PM (#4221321)

Tigers : .471
Reds : .468

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the 2012 World Series!

59. DKDC Posted: August 29, 2012 at 01:14 PM (#4221322)

SG - what are you using for opponent quality? How much harder does the schedule of their competitors look if the Orioles are actually a .500 quality team as currently constructed?

60. SG Posted: August 29, 2012 at 01:29 PM (#4221341)

SG - what are you using for opponent quality? How much harder does the schedule of their competitors look if the Orioles are actually a .500 quality team as currently constructed?

I've got a weighted average of some crude depth charts combined with pre-season projections and YTD actual, pythagenpat and component rs/ra winning percentages. Then I just add/subtract .02 from that for home field advantage/disadvantage on a game by game basis.

It estimates the Orioles as around a .462 team. If I make them a .500 team instead, here's the revised SoS of the teams they play that are in the postseason mix.

Rays : .531
Athletics : .526
Yankees : .504
White Sox : .478

61. DKDC Posted: August 29, 2012 at 01:39 PM (#4221350)

Awesome, thanks for running, I'd assumed that you had them rated lower (BPro has them at .432).

Somewhere in the .462 to .500 range feels about right to me. Their offense/defense looks just about league average based on RoS ZiPS, and the pitching staff is average +/- a lot depending on how you feel about the starting pitching.

62. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: August 29, 2012 at 01:52 PM (#4221367)

I will not be responsible for the hundreds of thousands of wanks being wanked right now not coming to climax.

And here I was just thinking we'd gone far too long between "Shooty's Mom" jokes.

63. Dangerous Dean Posted: August 29, 2012 at 05:05 PM (#4221664)

The Rangers have beaten the Orioes this season in games started by Hunter (twice), Gonzalez, Arrieta, and Matusz, and they’ve poured it on against relievers such as Stu Pomeranz and Zach Phillips.

Those aren’t the Orioles they’d be facing in a playoff game. The two games the Orioes won against the Rangers were started by Chen and Tillman, who would be in the playoff rotation.

Of course, it’s perfectly reasonable to want to face the Orioles anyways because they are probably the worst team in the playoff hunt.

Excellent points, all. My earlier bravado aside, I fully understand that the playoffs are a small-sample-size crapshoot. Even if one team is regarded as being clearly better by the experts, the weaker team can well win. And it would seem to be justice if the Os met and beat the Rangers in the playoffs after the regular season and my bragging.

That said, I realized that I hadn't given the Os the credit they for having a superb season so far. So let me tip my cap to them and say "Nice Work". Baltimore is having a great season (when they haven't been playing my boys) and it's nice to see their franchise get back to winning. Many congrats, bird people.

64. Misirlou was a Buddhist prodigy Posted: August 29, 2012 at 05:43 PM (#4221698)

The Tigers are the Lannisters - given every advantage (payroll, division), but still keep messing up.
The A's are the Starks - best at what they do, but faced with too many disadvantages.
The Angels are Renly - Early favorites, but a paper tiger with no real chance.
The Orioles are the Greyjoys - clearly the worst and happy just to be mentioned.
The Rays are Stannis - No one actually likes them, but still the favorites.

This is actually pretty good. Nice!

This is the most awesome thing I've ever read on this site.

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Schoenfield: Orioles starting to look like team of destiny

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