Here’s the thing about baseball in 2012: The difference between the best teams and the worst teams isn’t all that extreme. The New York Yankees, for example, have outscored their opponents by 99 runs. The Minnesota Twins, with one of the worst starting rotation in recent memory, have been outscored by 114 runs. That’s 213 runs, which is significant, but maybe not as large as you might imagine. The Twins have played 129 games, so we’re talking about 1.7 runs per game. What’s 1.7 runs? A double here, a single there, an extra walk here, one play made on defense. It’s not that much, but those three or four plays a game add up over 162 games.
This gets us to the Baltimore Orioles, the team that won’t go away. For the past couple of months, most analysts have predicted them to slowly slide out of the playoff chase, especially those of us who look at the numbers. We kept to their negative run differential: It will catch up to them eventually, we said. The talent base isn’t there; they won’t keep winning all these one-run games; their luck will run out.
...Watching the Orioles the past two games, I’ve gotten a little bit of that “destiny” feeling. Lew Ford, out of the majors since 2007, homered both nights. Nate McLouth hit the big two-run home run Monday and added three hits Tuesday. As a Mariners fan, it reminds me of the miracle 1995 season, when the M’s rallied from a 12.5-game deficit in late August to win the American League West. The team featured memorable big moments from guys such as Alex Diaz and Doug Strange and a way-past-his-prime Vince Coleman.
The Orioles are 24-6 (a .800 winning percentage) in one-run games, which would easily be the best record in one-run games during the wild-card era (the 2003 Giants went 28-12, a .700 mark). In fact, that would be the best of any team since 1901—the 1981 Orioles went 21-7 (.750). Of the top 10 one-run records from 1996 to 2011, eight of the teams made the postseason.
Team of destiny? Maybe, just maybe.
Repoz
Posted: August 29, 2012 at 08:48 AM |
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1. jyjjy Posted: August 29, 2012 at 09:11 AM (#4220974)The stupid, it burns! Aaarg!
We still don't seem to embody the caring spirit of Mother Theresa or courage of Mandela tho....
Reading the comments at ESPN is never a good idea unless you want your fiery misanthropy stoked.
1 and 1a: Nats and A's
2. Pirates
3. O's
4. Reds
It would be nice if the A’s would lose every once in a while.
On the other hand, there's no reason the A's and O's can't both make the playoffs. Let's join forces against our mutual enemy, the Rays. Though their nickname rhymes with ours, they are no kin to us! (The wildcard scrum does have kind of a Game of Thrones vibe to it this year.)
Play in, play off. It's good enough for me. Since both teams were projected to be terrible, I don't think either fanbase will turn their nose up at it.
That many of these races involve teams that haven't had a lot of success in recent years makes it even better.
The Tigers are the Lannisters - given every advantage (payroll, division), but still keep messing up.
The A's are the Starks - best at what they do, but faced with too many disadvantages.
The Angels are Renly - Early favorites, but a paper tiger with no real chance.
The Orioles are the Greyjoys - clearly the worst and happy just to be mentioned.
The Rays are Stannis - No one actually likes them, but still the favorites.
Personally, I’m getting greedy.
If I’d been offered an 81-win season in March, I’d have taken it in a heartbeat. Now, I want the division.
The A's are the Starks - best at what they do, but faced with too many disadvantages.
The Angels are Renly - Early favorites, but a paper tiger with no real chance.
The Orioles are the Greyjoys - clearly the worst and happy just to be mentioned.
The Rays are Stannis - No one actually likes them, but still the favorites.
You've got it. Well done!
What's great is that we still have lots of head-to-head matchups with the Rays, including the last three games of the season in Tampa Bay, so our fate is very much in our own hands.
Rays, A's, O's, and Tigers ALL playing .600 or better for August -- nobody's blinking down the stretch and it's awesome.
The A's have what's left of the Red Sox once they leave Cleveland and then it gets tough, especially with the Mariners playing well (those bastards). Hold onto your butts.
Who are the Night's Watch, and if the Tigers are Lannisters, who is Tyrion?
They Yanks are the Night's Watch. They are always there and they play in a cold, sterile environment and they are surrounded by aggressive zombies.
And their players toil under a vow of celibacy!
Brandon Inge, who switched sides in the middle.
It's a vow of celibacy. I wouldn't expect them to he honorable enough to keep it, the blackguards.
I think this an extremely important point that gets glossed over too easily. You need to look at the roster the Orioles have right now to project them over the rest of the season. What they did with Jake Arrieta and Zach Britton in the rotation and with people like Miguel Socolovich and Jason Berken giving up 15 runs in 11 innings tells us very little about how good they are right now.
a) the bullpen has been insanely good. Surreal. You wanna project THAT going forward?
b) even while they have been outscoring their opponents a bit of late, there is still lots of 2nd-order luck involved; run-clutch in addition to their early-season HUGE game-clutch.
c) their schedule won't be easy in Sep.
I would LOVE to see the O's take down the Yankees. But my honest assessment is they go <.500 from here on out.
I guess if you consider 10 of the last 13 games against the Yanks and Rangers easy.
Of all the possible teams Texas could play in the playoffs, the Os would be my choice. And yes, I know that kind of scenario usually means an upset. It's a chance I will take.
Congrats on the surprisingly good year. If you beat us in the playoffs, kudos to you because you deserve it.
I don't but when we were discussing the schedule we weren't just talking about the last 13 games.
Look at the last month of the A's schedule and tell me that #### is easy.
I just said I don't think the last 13 games of the season are easy. What more do you want? My blood?
I'd say admit you were wrong but that would break the internet.
Things are so muddled I don't even know who to root for in other games. Did I want the Rays or Rangers to win last night? No idea. Bah. Stupid, glorious, insane, satanic, wonderful wildcards...
Wrong on what? I specifically said that one had a tough end of season schedule and one had an easy end of season schedule but that was before changes were made to opposing teams' rosters and that things have changed to the point that I don't really know now who has the easiest schedule. Everything I said in my first post points to looking at the schedule at some point in the past and looking at games that in the present have already been played. I was then asked if I thought the last 13 games were easy. I answered that I do not and that when we were discussing the schedule we weren't just talking about the last 13 games.
This is actually pretty good. Nice!
The Rangers have beaten the Orioes this season in games started by Hunter (twice), Gonzalez, Arrieta, and Matusz, and they’ve poured it on against relievers such as Stu Pomeranz and Zach Phillips.
Those aren’t the Orioles they’d be facing in a playoff game. The two games the Orioes won against the Rangers were started by Chen and Tillman, who would be in the playoff rotation.
Of course, it’s perfectly reasonable to want to face the Orioles anyways because they are probably the worst team in the playoff hunt.
Team - SOS
Orioles : .531
Blue Jays : .526
Athletics : .523
Angels : .522
Rays : .521
Marlins : .521
Mariners : .521
Dodgers : .518
Astros : .513
Padres : .513
Nationals : .510
Red Sox : .510
Mets : .509
Indians : .504
Royals : .502
Rockies : .500
Cubs : .496
Rangers : .492
Brewers : .492
Phillies : .489
Diamondbacks : .482
Braves : .481
Cardinals : .481
Giants : .472
Pirates : .472
Tigers : .471
Reds : .468
Team - SOS
Orioles : .531
Blue Jays : .526
Athletics : .523
Well ####, now I have to admit I was wrong, which I won't do because I don't want to break the internet. I will not be responsible for the hundreds of thousands of wanks being wanked right now not coming to climax.
Yeah.
AL Wild Card:
Orioles : .531
Athletics : .523
Angels : .522
Rays : .521
Tigers : .471
NL East:
Nationals : .510
Braves : .481
NL West:
Dodgers : .518
Giants : .472
In the first half they didn't have to face Nate McClutch!
It will be a cold day in hell before I recognize the White Sox or Yankees as teams!
Stupid crappy AL Central.
So what should they be thought of? Based on WP, what record should the Tigers be expected to post over their final 34 compared to the Orioles/A's over their final 34?
SG, here's a thought experiment that maybe you can actualize for us. Take the same approach, but do it for LAST YEAR at this time. What did SoS have to say going into last September, populated as it was by two of the most dramatic collapses in baseball history?
If it is possible could you run the same study starting from August 6th?
Derp...
Twins .491
White Sox .477
Yankees .496
I can do this, I just have to find last year's spreadsheet which I don't have here at work.
Yep.
Team - SOS
Blue Jays : .535
Orioles : .529
Angels : .525
Astros : .519
Padres : .516
Indians : .512
Rays : .511
Phillies : .509
Royals : .509
Marlins : .509
Red Sox : .505
Mariners : .504
Athletics : .504
Dodgers : .501
Twins : .501
Yankees : .501
Mets : .500
Rangers : .497
Cubs : .495
Pirates : .495
Nationals : .494
Giants : .491
Rockies : .490
Cardinals : .490
Tigers : .486
Diamondbacks : .486
Braves : .482
White Sox : .481
Brewers : .479
Reds : .471
Reds : .468
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the 2012 World Series!
I've got a weighted average of some crude depth charts combined with pre-season projections and YTD actual, pythagenpat and component rs/ra winning percentages. Then I just add/subtract .02 from that for home field advantage/disadvantage on a game by game basis.
It estimates the Orioles as around a .462 team. If I make them a .500 team instead, here's the revised SoS of the teams they play that are in the postseason mix.
Rays : .531
Athletics : .526
Yankees : .504
White Sox : .478
Somewhere in the .462 to .500 range feels about right to me. Their offense/defense looks just about league average based on RoS ZiPS, and the pitching staff is average +/- a lot depending on how you feel about the starting pitching.
And here I was just thinking we'd gone far too long between "Shooty's Mom" jokes.
Excellent points, all. My earlier bravado aside, I fully understand that the playoffs are a small-sample-size crapshoot. Even if one team is regarded as being clearly better by the experts, the weaker team can well win. And it would seem to be justice if the Os met and beat the Rangers in the playoffs after the regular season and my bragging.
That said, I realized that I hadn't given the Os the credit they for having a superb season so far. So let me tip my cap to them and say "Nice Work". Baltimore is having a great season (when they haven't been playing my boys) and it's nice to see their franchise get back to winning. Many congrats, bird people.
This is the most awesome thing I've ever read on this site.
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