One of the fun aspects of what I do is the ongoing dialogue we can engage in. When I posted my top-10 power rankings on Sunday, and then a follow-up on why I didn’t include the Giants, I heard it loud and clear from Giants fans on Twitter and in the comments section. OK, OK, I get it: I didn’t show your team enough respect. The two major gripes were: (A) The Giants are not only the defending World Series champions, but have won two in three years; (B) They won 94 games in 2012.
Starting with the first one, I’d argue what happened in 2010 is completely irrelevant to what may happen in 2013, especially since the 2012 Giants only had one starting position player who was the same in both postseasons, (Buster Posey, as Pablo Sandoval was benched for much of the 2010 playoffs). The 2010 playoff rotation didn’t include Barry Zito (not on the roster) and the 2012 rotation didn’t include Tim Lincecum (demoted to the bullpen), except for one start. So the two teams really weren’t the same team (which is a credit to the front office). As for the 2012 results, I understand the desire to give credit to the team that just won it all, but I also don’t think it’s accurate to give too much credit for predicting 2013 based on what happened in 2012—and, specifically, placing too much emphasis, for example, for beating the Reds in a five-game series that swung on Brandon Phillips’ baserunning play in Game 3 and Johnny Cueto’s injury.
But that paragraph won’t win over Giants fans. This next section might not either, but here goes. What does winning 94 games mean exactly? Now, one of my arguments in leaving the Giants out of the top 10 was that I believe their true talent level is lower than that of a 94-win team. But even leaving that aside, let’s say 94 wins is 94 wins, regardless of how a team got there. What happens the next season? I looked at all teams in the wild-card era to win 94 games—and, to get a larger sample size, all teams that won 93 or 95 games as well. This gave us 31 teams, not including 2012. The results:
Those 31 teams declined by an average of seven wins the following season.
Eight teams did improve, by an average of four wins per season.
Two teams had the same record.
That means 21 of the 31 teams declined—by an average of nine wins per season.
Posted: December 19, 2012 at 05:13 AM | 26 comment(s)
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