Over at FanGraphs, Dave Cameron writes that the Mets aren’t that far away:
So, I say good for the Mets on not giving up on their short-term future. They just aren’t anywhere close to being bad enough to justify punting the next few years while they wait for the farm system to develop new stars to build around. They already have stars to build around. They can win with the ones they have now.
I agree with Dave’s premise that teams shouldn’t always be so willing to punt on a season. But I think the Mets are just in the wrong division; and if they can’t sign Dickey now, there’s no guarantee they sign him next offseason. Their best move would be to shop him around and acquire a young hitter to add alongside their old third baseman. You can still build a rotation around Harvey, Wheeler and Niese, but you need to build up the offense around Wright. If they can sign Dickey to a long-term deal, I’m in favor of that—knuckleballers are good risks even in their early 40s—but I don’t believe this ownership is going to give out two megacontracts in one winter.
As bad as the public relations hit would be in trading away the reigning Cy Young winner, maybe Mets fans—at least the older ones—can remember back in 1989, when the Mets acquired the reigning AL Cy Young winner, Frank Viola. While he had some nice years with the Mets, the Twins did acquire Kevin Tapani and Rick Aguilera in the deal. Two years later, the Twins were World Series champs.
Repoz
Posted: December 01, 2012 at 09:56 AM |
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Carter started to look older in 1986, and really looked bad in 87 and 88, which isn't surprising for an catcher. The Mets were pretty foolish to expect a 35 year old catcher to bounce back in 89. If Sasser could have remembered how to throw a ball back to the pitcher, it would have been less bad.
Hernandez really did fall off the cliff in 89.
This is pretty much a pattern with Mets fans. They dump on any trade that didn't result in- I don't know- maybe a championship without looking at the player's actual contributions. Viola's tenure with the Mets is right in line with the rest of his career- a 110 ERA+ with the Mets after a 111 ERA+ with the Twins amid a 112 ERA+ for his career. His unadjusted ERA is actually better with the Mets (3.31) than with the Twins or the Red Sox (3.86 and 3.40 respectively). He had a great season with New York in 1990 (20-12 with a 141 ERA+ while leading the league in IP). He had a down year in '91, the Mets let him go in free agency and then he bounced back for several more good years with Boston. The '91 Mets weren't going to win the World Series with Aguilera and Tapani any more than with Viola (they finished 5th in the NL East that year). It was a fine trade that wasn't enough to overcome the team's other deficiencies.
Not to be a killjoy, but the Mets were 24 games out of 1st last season. Too much focus on that second Wildcard?
Not to be a killjoy, but the Mets were 24 games out of 1st last season. Too much focus on that second Wildcard?
Things can change fast in baseball, no team should ever plan for extended suckage. Especially not one with resources.
Jim Bowden (warning: source) thinks the Mets will trade Dickey to the Royals or Angels for 2 mid-level prospects. I'm not terribly jazzed about that. I think the Mets should trade Dickey, but they have to go big or go home. If the market doesn't yield anything big enough, then re-sign him.
Trading Dickey for 2 mid-level prospects would be an insanely stupid move. I therefore expect it to happen within the week. (Aside: has a player other than Viola been traded after winning the Cy Young, and what was gotten for him?)
Viola gets dumped on in part because he was supposed to be the final piece of the puzzle that would let the Mets breeze through the postseason undefeated on a wave of shutouts. It's ridiculous that people dog athletes for not being as good they hoped. Did people think Viola was floating the ball to the plate because he was distracted, thinking about what yacht polish to buy?
Met fans (and brass) throught they were getting the Sweet Music of his age 27-28 seasons, the guy who won 41 games with ERA+s in the 150s and with a Cy Young award to show for it. He was an average starter after he came over, then had a very strong year, was around average again, and the Mets no longer loved their shiny new toy and let him walk from The Worst Team Money Can Buy. Mets fans hated, hated, hated that team, especially coming as it did on the heels of the Hernandez-Carter Mets, and some of the players caught unwarranted flack for simply being on that club. Remember Vince Coleman's anger at the Mets keeping him out of the Hall of Fame by reducing his steals, the firecrackers thrown at fans, the bleach in the bullpen, David Cone letting it all hang out...?
I don't remember salaries--was the 3/13 Viola got from the Red Sox in '92 a premium deal back then?
Baseball Reference has him third in AL salary in 1992, so I'd say yes.
Looking further, he would have been third in NL salary also, so fifth overall in MLB. Not bad for a disappointment like him.
Hell, the Indians did it twice in two years. As for part 2 of your question: nothing that amounted to a whole lot.
Nice.
Otis and Johnson for Foy
Mitchell et al for McReynolds
Half a pitching staff for Viola
5 players for Alomar
All of those deals were unnecessary "lily-gilding" moves. The position players replaced productive platoons or in Alomar's case, forced Alfonzo to move from 2B to 3B hurting the team at two spots. The Viola deal was a reaction to the Expos trading for Langston, which caused hysteria in the tabloids. And none of them worked.
History is never in the Mets' favor in trades. That's why it's so silly to read "if they trade ----- for "prospects" they'll win everything in 2 years". Still waiting for the championships they won with Doug Flynn, Dan Norman and Ryan Thompson.
Pedro, for Carl Pavano and Tony Armas Jr.
Yeah, I did mean that as rhetorical, and to suggest that teams who trade Cy winners hardly get guaranteed returns.
@15--Bill James really called the McReynolds trade against the Mets. A very solid player, but not nearly as good as the team thought ("a franchise player", they said, iirc), and the kind of guy who was likely to decline very quickly once he reached 30.
I agree.
I was about to agree, as AJM, but the "big" part carries a lot of subjective weight here.
Greg Maddux. He just signed elsewhere when the Cubs lowballed him.
So, everyone knows about the hs girl who was taught the knuckleball by Joe Niekro when he was her little league coach, and she's now an all-star? Great story.
edit: I just noticed this in Schoenfeld's article.
"Trouble is, with Wright now signed and the Mets operating like a midmarket franchise with an estimated $80 million budget, they may not be able to afford Dickey."
80m? Really? Has it gotten that bad?
Yeah, this is basically what I mean. I get that a "big" prospect is in the eye of the beholder, but I'm thinking along the lines of the Beltran deal, where the Mets held out for one very good prospect, instead of settling for 1 B prospect, 1 C prospect and 1 non-prospect. Do the Reds want pitchers? They don't seem to have much use for Mesoraco?
In any case, there is no conceivable reality where this will happen, but in another universe, shouldn't the Mets be in on Josh Hamilton? Realistically, the Mets only have a chance of competing if they can make massive upgrades. The OF is a vortex of suck, so replacing the giant sucking sound with Josh Hamilton would make an enormous difference. Because Hamilton has a different risk profile from most players, he is likely to get a shorter contract with a high AAV. Those contracts often make more sense in any case, but that might create a nice organizational balance with Wright's deal, which was longer with a lower AAV. If the Mets backload the deal a bit, they can reduce the hit in 2013, and the Mets have so few commitments in 2014, they could make the deal work even in a reduced budget. Also, signing Hamilton could really sell tickets, both through increased fan enthusiasm early in the season and more meaningful games late in the season. Again, I get that it will never happen, but I'm not sure it's the wrong idea, even in this universe.
I actually wouldn't have a problem with Hamilton on a short-term contract. As you say, it'd only be money, he'd be filling a huge hole, and as long as he didn't #### up, I do think he'd be very popular and bring excitement. But it won't happen, and I suspect he gets a long-term deal anyway, just because the free agent class is so weak.
What are Jeff Keppinger, Lasting Milledge, and Henry Owens doing?
I've liked Arencibia, but he has posted an OBP comfortably below .300 in each of the last 2 years. I don't think you give up anything of significant value to get him.
Matt Lindstrom, on the other hand, would have been useful to have around from time to time.
Rosenthal hints at past talks involving Niese. If the Jays think they can get that sort of player for Arencibia, more power to them. But Alderson doesn't make that deal.
It wasn't meant as a serious comment at all. Just three Met prospects from the Mets recent past. I don't think it'd be a great idea to bench Thole. He was awful last year but he entered the season with a .350 OBP. He's not going to be an allstar but I still think he has a shot of being a good starter.
Hearkening back to what I mentioned earlier, even if it makes sense to folks like us that d'Arnaud is worth more than Dickey, the general public wouldn't see it that way. I don't think WFAN callers would be thrilled that the Mets traded the Cy Young winner for a minor leaguer, never mind if the Mets threw in more besides. There would also be a ton of pressure on d'Arnaud going forward.
So, this probably doesn't work. I dunno who else is looking to trade quality young catchers, though.
I could envision a rotation of the Harvey/Niese/Wheeler/Holland getting to the Mets into the playoffs as soon as 2014. Use the money you save on Dickey to get a hitter or two.
I think Ike Davis is a good hitter and Wright has been re-signed. Murphy and Tejada are averagish for their positions, and I think 2013 will tell us whether or not Thole can be relied on as such as well. The Mets are freeing up a lot of money with the expiring contracts of Santana and Bay and only have Wright and Niese under contact for 2014. Even if they don't increase payroll, the Mets will have money to spend to add a hitter or two.
By the beginning of the 2014 seasons, Alderson et al will have been in charge for 3.5 years. They need to add some talent to the roster because Minaya can only be blamed for so long.
Towards season end, Alderson said 100MM. We'll see.
Those are the buyouts for Santana and Bay's options. Carlos didn't have an option and the Mets traded him anyway. I don't think the Mets are going to drop all the way down to the 80 million dollar payroll range. The Mets were at 90 million this year and didn't they have to pay back the 25 million they borrowed from MLB? 80 million probably isn't even midmarket anymore. That's pretty much in the bottom third by 2014.
The new TV contracts are kicking in and I think the Mets, even with their ownership issues, should be able to handle 90-95 million in payroll.
I think the current plan is to trade Saltalamacchia and have Lavarnway split catching duties with Ross, so this seems unlikely.
I was wondering this too. Anything below 100M seems below average by 2014 for sure, and <80M definitely seems small market rather than mid market in that time frame.
Texas and KC do at least have some outfielders. Texas has a Cuban import CF, Leonys Martin, who looks like he could be pretty good. But I don't know if they can deal him before they know what's up with Josh Hamilton.
I wonder if KC would be willing to trade Lorenzo Cain and put Wil Myers in CF, satisfying their Frenchy urge. Probably not; I don't get the impression Myers is a great fielder. It's not like Cain is a budding star anyway.
Jurrickson Profar would obviously be off the table; I don't think even KC is dumb enough to consider giving up Myers in this scenario; and I doubt Jake Odorizzi is realistic either. 3B/1B Mike Olt is perhaps not out of the question, but we'd have to be sure he could hack it in corner OF. I'm sure both teams would be trying very hard to pawn a group of Grade B/C prospects on us rather than give up a potential star. Which is always annoying.
I really hope it doesn't get to the point where we trade R.A. Dickey for an uninspiring prospect package. I'd rather just pay him to pitch this year, even in a useless cause, if that's the alternative.
EDIT: Erased idiotic reading of fractions.
Only if Toronto is willing to eat that salary!
And if you're going to play Thole, you need a lefty-masher back-up C.
2009-2011 Thole is an okay player as long as he is basically free. Thole's issue is that a lot of his value is in walks, with no power or speed whatsoever. The fear was always going to be, when people saw how much of a power threat he wasn't, they'd just knock the bat out of his hands. It's hard to read much into the numbers, but his first strike % against and his strike % against have both gone up while the walk rate is dropping, which is exactly what you don't want to see. Combined with a mediocre arm, a strict platoon bat and terrible speed makes for one of the most marginal players around, certainly in tools if not results.
It's a shame really, if he had hit a little worse when he first came up he could've had his Backup Catcher card stamped and had a long MLB career.
He definitely is a Luis Castillo clone as a hitter. But slow. That's not a good thing.
He didn't qualify last year, but had he, he would have had the third lowest ISO in the majors. Ben Revere and Jamey Carroll almost lapped the field, finishing .033 ahead of third place, Rafael Furcal. Thole was substantially closer to the two Twins than he was to Furcal.
Josh Thole has scored 65 runs in the majors, in 300+ games, 900+ ABs. That is impressive.
That's partly on him but also where he hits in the lineup. He hits in front of a pitcher and Ruben Tejada. You aren't going to score a ton of runs that way.
Gomez' fielding is doing an awful lot of work in those numbers. Plus, Gose may be where Gomez was 5 years ago.
Yes, it is. So is Lucas Duda's in his, right?
At espn.go
The Mets seem to have paid off the 25m MLB loan. Also espn:
For those of you who like to dream, here's the Mets with a $150m payroll.
I hadn't realized attendance only dropped by 700 or so a game despite the payroll slashing. Does this means the Wilpons were right, from their perverse point of view, to hang onto the team?
Ruben hit .289 last year and for a rather good portion of the year hit over .300 - the blame of Thole not scoring is not heavily on Ruben's shoulders.
He has no power. You're not going to drive in a slow base runner who also has no power in with a single.
Under Anthopoulous, its pretty much a guarantee that if there's a rumour of a deal its not going to happen.
I understand this, but not even Wright would have driven in Thole that much. I'm fine with Ruben's (lack of) power being a supplementary reason for Thole's lack of runs, but it doesn't seem near the top of the list.
The funny part is that the projected outfield still sucks - Bay, Duda, Neuwenhuis/Den Dekker.
Right, but while I can compare Gose's bat to Gomez's bat, I don't know how Gose's defense compares to Gomez's defense.
That seems like the right approach. He's willing to take a reasonable extension, reportedly 2/30, so you only move him if someone makes a great offer.
I tried to find this; was this from August? Doesn't mean it's not right, but it's also possible things have changed at least a little bit.
==
Even if the Mets keep payroll to 2012 levels, they deferred $15m of Bay's contract so they have some money to spend.
Wright had 41-2-21 = 64 extra base hits, while
Tejada had 26-0-1 = 27
That was in 501/670 = 75% of Wright's plate appearance. Adjust accordingly and Tejada improves to around 34-0-1.
Do the math the way you want, but Wright has something like 31 more extra base hits than Tejada, and would drive in Thole from 1B something like an additional 7 (or so) times over the course of a full season. Not that big a deal.
Which is why I'm not as optimistic as I'd like to be.
7 does seem pretty substantial, given that it represents about 30% of the runs Thole scored last year. Of course this ignores the many times that Wright would advance Thole without scoring him.
Thole's run scoring is simply wacky. He's got to be right around the worst per PA, non-pitcher category.
Thole is also painful to watch with runners on base. In 2012 he drove in 11% of runners on 2nd and only 27% of runners on 3rd. Granted he probably had more PAs than league average with 2 outs, but still pretty poor.
Thole's career split with runners on 3rd and < 2 outs: .234 BA in 58 PA; 29 RBI out of 58 RO 3rd/ 92 RISP/ 125 RO.
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