After he blew apart my “DiMythio’s Sphinct-O-Matic Nine” team? Why should I care now…
For the first list, I looked at players since 1969 who had at least 1,000 plate appearances through their age-22 season. The players clustered from a 97 OPS+ to 103 include Roberto Alomar, Lou Whitaker, Ruben Sierra, Chet Lemon, Adrian Beltre and Buddy Bell. Good players, although they all played key defensive positions. They also included Rick Manning, Wil Cordero and Chris Speier. Washington was actually at 106—exactly where his career mark ended up. George Brett was also at 106. Brett won a batting title at 23 and then started hitting for power at 24. Hosmer probably won’t turn into George Brett, but George Brett didn’t look like George Brett at 22, either.
For the second list, I looked at all 22-year-olds since 1969 who had 500 plate appearances. There are 146 of them; Hosmer’s OPS+ of 82 ranks 124th, right below Jerry Remy (and right above Jose Reyes). Only two of the players below or right above Hosmer were first basemen, one being Daric Barton, who hit .226 for the A’s in 2008. Most of the players are middle infielders, catchers or center fielders.
There are a few interesting names to point out, however:
- Ryne Sandberg, 1982 Cubs (90 OPS+): Sandberg hit .271/.312/.372 as a rookie third basemen. He’s obviously a different type of player than Hosmer—moved to second base, more speed—but the point is Sandberg wasn’t all that great as a 22-year-old. His power developed at 24, and he turned into a Hall of Famer.
- Robin Ventura, 1990 White Sox (83 OPS+): This was Ventura’s rookie year, so he didn’t have the year of major league experience like Hosmer did; he hit a pedestrian .249/.324/.318. His walk rate was similar to Hosmer’s, and neither struck out much. (Hosmer struck out more but plays in an era with more strikeouts.) The next year Ventura hit .284/.367/.442 and increased his home runs from five to 23.
- Dale Murphy, 1978 Braves (80 OPS+): The other first baseman, Murphy showed power (22 home runs), but hit just .224 and led the NL in strikeouts. Similar build to Hosmer—tall and lean—although Murphy was athletic enough to eventually move to center field and become a two-time MVP. (Hosmer did steal 16 bases in 17 attempts, so it’s not like he’s Prince Fielder out there.)
- Larry Parrish, 1976 Expos (80 OPS+): Like Hosmer, Parrish played pretty well as a 21-year-old and then regressed at 22. He had a string of productive years starting at age 24.
One other guy worth mentioning is Johnny Damon, who posted a 73 OPS+ at 22 after playing better at 21. After hitting 17 home runs his first three seasons, he hit 18 at 24. But, again, he’s a much different type of player.
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. bobm Posted: March 07, 2013 at 08:16 AM (#4382657)BSOHL.
Hosmer did look pretty lost at the plate at times, but he did look so good his rookie year, it makes me think he can get his head on straight and have a good career going forward. I think firing hitting coach Kevin Seizter may have an effect. Seitzer stresses going the opposite field, which seemed to help Gordon and Butler, but maybe hurt Hosmer. I'm cautiously optimistic Hos can be an All-Star type first baseman going forward.
Now, can anyone explain his crummy defensive numbers? He looks like he should be pretty good. He's fluid, gets to balls pretty well it seems. I also notice it seems like he botches routine plays more than you would like. He has this annoying glove flip on balls that skip in front of the bag, that may look cool but probably costs him some catches. I also think the Royals coaching staff has been poorly positioning their infield, causing Moose to have inflated fielding numbers (who seems average to below average, but is awesome in the metrics), and hurting Escobar's numbers (he looks fantastic, but is average to below aveage by metrics). Any other ideas?
not that it counts for anythiing but i have always thought bigger guys are more prone to struggle the first couple of years because of the bigger strike zone and being forced to adapt to pitchers capable of hitting corners. agreed that i think the kid needs to stay away from seizter's approach because that isn't his core competency.
looks like a hitter to me
Shouldn't the hitting coach adapt to the hitter's strengths? Alternately why have just one hitting coach if his approach works for some but not for others?
Maybe. It is a 366 vs. 350 OBP advantage for Cabrera. Stanton did hit 290 last year which is a very scary thought in its way but he's been more Eddie Mathews than Frank Robinson. What Stanton does have is possibly the greatest power we have seen in a long time. ISO through age 22, min 1000 PA:
DiMaggio 289
T Williams 284
Stanton 283
Mathews 281
Pujols 265
Foxx 260
Horner 255
Juan Gone 235
Cabrera is down at 223.
That's a nice list to be in and Stanton's in an interesting spot on it. The true greats, including guys like FRob as you move further down, all had OBPs 20+ points better. On the other hand, the "busts" (Horner, Gonzalez, Tony C, Andruw, Straw, Trosky, Powell, Canseco, Bruno) all had lower OBPs (a couple were close). Stanton's walk rate is perfectly decent (270 BA, 350 OBP) and it's not too heavily driven by IBB but the best players on the list either hit 25-50 points higher in BA or had 100+ points difference between BA and OBP ... or both.
With his K-rate, it's hard to see him even maintaining the 290 BA he had in 2012 (career on-contact of 401/821) so he'll need to cut the K-rate if he wants to challenge Bonds. :-)
Stanton so far this spring -- 1 K in 18 PA. :-)
Out of curiosity, what level of hitter? #1's list is full of good but not great hitters. Do you think he'll be Eric Chavez or Brunansky or Clark or Murray? (presumably not Pujols) As a 1B, that's a range from average to HoVG/HoF.
Then I'm not entirely sure the differences among those hitters wasn't largely just injuries and such. Chavez was chugging along at 125-130 OPS+ before he got hurt; Sierra had a nice run of 130ish hitting; Beltre is churning out 130 these days. Jack Clark was probably as good or better a hitter than Murray, just much less durable. So maybe that range of hitters isn't as broad as I first thought.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main