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Monday, July 15, 2013

Schoenfield: Would Chris Davis be the true HR king?

Sal Durante: “STOP—da musing!”

The record is the record, and Bonds is the single-season home run champion. What people believe or desire shouldn’t factor into the argument; well, you can argue, but I’m not buying. We can’t pretend that Bonds didn’t hit 73; we can’t wipe out an entire era and pretend it didn’t exist. Barry Bonds hit 73 baseballs over the fence in 2001, and 73 is the record.

But brace yourself for a non-ending stream of columns, sports radio chatter, Twitter posts and the like. When Davis appears before the media on Monday in New York in preparation for the All-Star Game, he’s going to be mobbed more than other player: Can you do it?

Look, it’s an amazing story. Davis is now slugging .717. Not including Davis this season, there have been 35 seasons in which a player slugged .700—and all but four occurred in the 1920s and ‘30s, or between 1994 to 2004. The four outlier seasons: Ted Williams in 1941 and 1957, Stan Musial in 1948 and Mickey Mantle in 1956. Davis’ performance would remain historic in nature, no matter his final home run tally.

...One thing working against Davis, however, is that Buck Showalter continues to hit Davis fifth in the order, choosing to bat Adam Jones cleanup between lefties Nick Markakis and Davis. That will cost Davis plate appearances over the season—an estimated 30 over the entire year, if he was hitting third instead of fifth—and those 30 missing PAs could be the difference between 59 and 62. With Matt Wieters not having a great year behind him, Davis may also start receiving more walks (although July has produced his lowest walk rate of the season, so pitchers haven’t been pitching around him).

Hey, I hope he makes 62 an interesting number to watch for in late September. A lot of fans will consider 61 the record and that will make for a fun, engaging stretch drive if Davis gets close. It won’t be The Record but it will get people watching baseball, and that’s a good thing.

Repoz Posted: July 15, 2013 at 08:32 AM | 47 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: history, orioles

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   1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 15, 2013 at 09:03 AM (#4494471)
No. We live in a democracy. Monarchies are fascist. Our home run leader will be determined by a vote of esteemed electors.
   2. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 15, 2013 at 10:12 AM (#4494504)
"True record" silliness aside, he has 66 team games left, so if he keeps up his pace (doubtful) he'll hit another 25, for a total of 62.

If he falls back to a more normal-established pace then he'll hit another 15, for a total of 52.

Either way, if he stays health he's going to have a nice 50+ HR season. But he's below pace to catch Sosa or McGwire or Bonds - we're not at the true halfway point, as his team has already played 96 games.
   3. McCoy Posted: July 15, 2013 at 10:24 AM (#4494514)
I'm actually the true home run king. I hit 86 home runs in High Heat Baseball in 2001 and no one has been able to top that.
   4. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: July 15, 2013 at 10:32 AM (#4494524)
"True record" silliness aside, he has 66 team games left, so if he keeps up his pace (doubtful) he'll hit another 25, for a total of 62.

If he falls back to a more normal-established pace then he'll hit another 15, for a total of 52.


The "pre-All-Star game record" was previously held by Reggie Jackson, who went on to add the grand total of 10 after the break. Of course this isn't 1969, and Davis is playing in Camden Yards, not the Oakland Coliseum, but I'd still put the odds of getting to 62 well against him.
   5. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: July 15, 2013 at 10:32 AM (#4494526)
Is this the place to speculate on which historical figure has had the most sex ever? I'd say Genghis Kahn but Peter North can't be far behind. Wilt Chamberlain is overrated in this regard, I believe.

Looking at Davis' contract on Cot's it looks like he's signed for just this season. Is this right? I wonder what he's going to get on the open market.
   6. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 15, 2013 at 10:35 AM (#4494530)

Is this the place to speculate on which historical figure has had the most sex ever?


Only one answer to that question.
   7. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: July 15, 2013 at 10:37 AM (#4494533)
#6, well that was a masterful set-up on my part.
   8. boteman Posted: July 15, 2013 at 10:52 AM (#4494548)
Looking at Davis' contract on Cot's it looks like he's signed for just this season. Is this right? I wonder what he's going to get on the open market.

I'm guessing he'll get more than Pete Kozma.

Both money and the se.x
   9. JJ1986 Posted: July 15, 2013 at 10:59 AM (#4494552)
I think Davis has two more years of team control. It looks like he had about 3.5 seasons of service time on opening day.
   10. JRVJ Posted: July 15, 2013 at 11:21 AM (#4494586)
5, Genghis Kahn is the hands on best at having his genetic material carried over through the generations. If you ever have 5 hours to spend, more or less, listen to Dan Carlin's amazing podcasts (DAN CARLIN'S HARD HISTORY) on the Mongols.

Those dudes were playing in a higher league (I hope I'm quoting Carlin correctly here).
   11. TJ Posted: July 15, 2013 at 11:24 AM (#4494590)
"No. We live in a democracy. Monarchies are fascist. Our home run leader will be determined by a vote of esteemed electors."

Hope it's not the BBWAA, or the official Home Run Leader will be either Derek Jeter or David Eckstein...
   12. Swedish Chef Posted: July 15, 2013 at 11:30 AM (#4494595)
Is this the place to speculate on which historical figure has had the most sex ever?

Augustus the Strong, Elector of Saxony and sometime King of Poland, had 300+ illegitimate children (and no legitimate).
   13. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: July 15, 2013 at 11:43 AM (#4494610)
If you ever have 5 hours to spend, more or less, listen to Dan Carlin's amazing podcasts (DAN CARLIN'S HARD HISTORY) on the Mongols.


Thanks for the tip! Always looking for good podcasts.
   14. Moloka'i Three-Finger Brown (Declino DeShields) Posted: July 15, 2013 at 11:47 AM (#4494613)
If you ever have 5 hours to spend, more or less, listen to Dan Carlin's amazing podcasts (DAN CARLIN'S HARD HISTORY) on the Mongols.


Seconded. Every so often, I'd get lost in Carlin's narrative, and my first instinct was to run like hell. Those dudes were prolific in everything, but especially killing.
   15. bunyon Posted: July 15, 2013 at 11:52 AM (#4494621)
When and how do people listen to podcasts? Cars? iPod? phone? I've yet to catch on to podcasts but many (like here) get recommended that sound good.
   16. ursus arctos Posted: July 15, 2013 at 11:58 AM (#4494631)
Via Ipod during commute (subway), while cooking, grocery shopping, doing laundry, etc.
   17. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: July 15, 2013 at 11:58 AM (#4494632)
I listen while working out or marking student work at home when the wife is away.
   18. bob gee Posted: July 15, 2013 at 12:03 PM (#4494644)
15 - mowing lawn, in car, on train, walking, sometimes at home (i work from home, so it's mainly music)
   19. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 15, 2013 at 12:10 PM (#4494663)
I have an hour commute right now, and listen to podcasts on a regular basis. Could not get into audiobooks, and I can only listen to sports talk for short segments.
   20. Nasty Nate Posted: July 15, 2013 at 12:14 PM (#4494670)
Even if he doesn't approach 73, it would be notable for Davis to threaten the AL record or the franchise record (50).
   21. RJ in TO Posted: July 15, 2013 at 12:17 PM (#4494677)
When and how do people listen to podcasts? Cars? iPod? phone? I've yet to catch on to podcasts but many (like here) get recommended that sound good.

At work during the day - mostly lighter stuff like old time radio broadcasts. At home in the evening while working - stuff which requires more focus, like the assorted history and economics podcasts.

And if you're looking for history dorks yelling at each other, the In Our Times archives are available on iTunes (and, I'm assuming, elsewhere). For the more narrating and less yelling ones, there's also Shakespeare's Restless World (20 15 minute podcasts) and The History of the World in 100 Objects (100 15 minute podcasts).
   22. bunyon Posted: July 15, 2013 at 12:18 PM (#4494678)
Mowing the lawn!!! Bingo.

I have only about a 10 minute commute, oftentimes less, and feel that something serious and deep would be hard to keep up with. On the other hand, I have a lot of godforsaken lawn and the rain makes it needs mowing often.

It occurs to me I don't have a lot of time alone at home where I could put headphones in without being rude to people I care about.


Also, how does one mark papers while listening to something that requires thought? Not sure I could pull that off.
   23. Tom Nawrocki Posted: July 15, 2013 at 12:27 PM (#4494691)
How loud do you have to have the podcast to be able to hear it over mowing the lawn?
   24. michaelplank has knowledgeable eyes Posted: July 15, 2013 at 12:34 PM (#4494701)
When and how do people listen to podcasts? Cars? iPod? phone? I've yet to catch on to podcasts but many (like here) get recommended that sound good.


I drive quite a bit for work and look forward to my trips so I can listen to Stuff You Should Know. Do not be fooled by the many other Stuff products from How Stuff Works.

History of the World in 100 Objects was good but now it's over. In Our Time covers interesting and diverse topics with top-flight (British) academics, but I dislike the format.

Haven't found any others that approach these for quality, and I've been looking.
   25. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: July 15, 2013 at 12:37 PM (#4494705)
The "pre-All-Star game record" was previously held by Reggie Jackson, who went on to add the grand total of 10 after the break.

To give Reggie somewhat fairer context, he played 91 games before the 1969 All-Star break, and 61 afterwards, including missing a 10-game stretch in September. Accounting for that, he "went down" about 12 home runs, not 27.
   26. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: July 15, 2013 at 12:41 PM (#4494712)
How loud do you have to have the podcast to be able to hear it over mowing the lawn?


ABOUT THIS LOUD!!!!!!

I listen on the train, while walking the dogs, and at work if what I'm doing does not require reading.
   27. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: July 15, 2013 at 01:11 PM (#4494755)
I listen on the train, while walking the dogs, and at work if what I'm doing does not require reading.
So you're the reason there's dog #### on the train.
   28. bunyon Posted: July 15, 2013 at 01:13 PM (#4494757)
How loud do you have to have the podcast to be able to hear it over mowing the lawn?

Headphones.
   29. JJ1986 Posted: July 15, 2013 at 01:16 PM (#4494763)
When and how do people listen to podcasts?


In addition to the mentioned options (commute, dog walks, lawn mowing), running (okay, walking) on the treadmill is a good time to listen.
   30. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: July 15, 2013 at 01:17 PM (#4494764)
When and how do people listen to podcasts?


I go for about a half hour walk at lunch everyday and listen then. I prefer music when I drive but the chatter while I walk is very relaxing.
   31. Hang down your head, Tom Foley Posted: July 15, 2013 at 01:25 PM (#4494772)
So you're the reason there's dog #### on the train

That's not from a dog.
   32. BochysFingers Posted: July 15, 2013 at 02:22 PM (#4494867)
If Davis hits 74 home runs this season, I'll consider him the HR king. 62 will get him the all-time AL HR king, which ain't too shabby either.
   33. Everybody Loves Tyrus Raymond Posted: July 15, 2013 at 03:58 PM (#4495004)
The true home run king would be the person with the most home runs. See how simple that is?
   34. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: July 15, 2013 at 04:46 PM (#4495062)
I still consider George Mikan to be the tallest player in NBA history.
   35. The Polish Sausage Racer Posted: July 15, 2013 at 04:57 PM (#4495074)
Why is Selig not demanding Davis' head on a platter too? Anyone who hits well is guilty, guilty, guilty!
   36. cardsfanboy Posted: July 15, 2013 at 04:59 PM (#4495076)
The true home run king would be the person with the most home runs. See how simple that is?


I was thinking that the true homerun king would be if you graph the location of every homerun hit, and compare it to every stadium, and only count those that would have had the distance for a homerun in every stadium(including old no longer in use stadiums). Then who ever has the most, is the true homerun king.
   37. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: July 15, 2013 at 05:11 PM (#4495084)
When and how do people listen to podcasts? Cars? iPod? phone? I've yet to catch on to podcasts but many (like here) get recommended that sound good.

iPod / commuting or walking or doing chores, mainly. Also great for road trips.

Amazing GF bought an attachment for her headphones so we could both listen through the same device, and we've had a couple of very nice long walks through the city while listening to science geekery or "This American Life" or whatever.
   38. JRVJ Posted: July 15, 2013 at 06:25 PM (#4495136)
History of the World in 100 Objects was good but now it's over. In Our Time covers interesting and diverse topics with top-flight (British) academics, but I dislike the format.


I listened to almost all of the World in 100 Objects, and am a regular listener of In Our Time (this last year hasn't been Lord Melvyn's strongest, but he still clicks on ocassion -- and there's so much great stuff from previous years to listen to. The Industrial Revolution Part I episode is genuinely cool, since there's some serious bad blood between Lord Melvyn and a female historian in that one).
   39. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 15, 2013 at 08:26 PM (#4495217)
Is this the place to speculate on which historical figure has had the most sex ever? I'd say Genghis Kahn


He's got to be inner circle for sure. Did I not read somewhere that like 1 in 6 Chinese people can trace a part of their DNA back to Genghis? If not true, still a good yarn though.
   40. valuearbitrageur Posted: July 15, 2013 at 09:16 PM (#4495280)
Amazing GF bought an attachment for her headphones so we could both listen through the same device, and we've had a couple of very nice long walks through the city while listening to science geekery or "This American Life" or whatever.


Sounds like you two aren't even trying for the record of most sex by a couple ever.
   41. michaelplank has knowledgeable eyes Posted: July 15, 2013 at 09:26 PM (#4495292)
am a regular listener of In Our Time (this last year hasn't been Lord Melvyn's strongest, but he still clicks on ocassion -- and there's so much great stuff from previous years to listen to. The Industrial Revolution Part I episode is genuinely cool, since there's some serious bad blood between Lord Melvyn and a female historian in that one).


I remember that one. That was extreme, but it's a version of the main thing I don't like about the show. He's always pushing them to hurry up, racing against time, because it originates as a radio broadcast with a set time limit. If it were a true podcast, it wouldn't matter. Well, they're on break until September so absence will make the heart grow fonder.
   42. Non-Youkilidian Geometry Posted: July 15, 2013 at 10:54 PM (#4495387)
The true home run king would be the person with the most home runs. See how simple that is?

No, the true home run king must be Dave Kingman. Or maybe Jeff King.
   43. Misirlou was a Buddhist prodigy Posted: July 15, 2013 at 11:02 PM (#4495399)
Or Jose Reyes. Or Rex Hudler. Or Mark Koenig. But definitely not Prince Fielder or Mel Queen.
   44. michaelplank has knowledgeable eyes Posted: July 15, 2013 at 11:03 PM (#4495400)
Cesar Tovar.
   45. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: July 16, 2013 at 12:40 AM (#4495457)
Has there been a major leaguer named Vitaman? If so, that's my pick. If not, baseball has no home run king.
   46. RMc is a fine piece of cheese Posted: July 16, 2013 at 01:50 AM (#4495473)
I may have to start listening to "In Our Time", especially since the latest episode is right up my alley.
   47. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: July 16, 2013 at 10:14 AM (#4495577)
Has there been a major leaguer named Vitaman? If so, that's my pick.

No, but the Rams once had a running back and kick returner named Vitamin Smith. At 5-8 / 179 he didn't exactly conjure up an image of a home run king, but he did return 3 kickoffs for TD's in a season, which for nearly 20 years made him the Kick Return King.

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