I agree. The Tigers got two bullpen lefties and a strikeout starter, plus a CF in Jackson that could end up better than Granderson. They saved a ton of money and got younger, while the others teams did the opposite. I wish the Mets could have gotten Granderson and then made this deal.

Where would you pay Granderson. The Mets could also take Max Scherzer. Its not common that a guy with that much talent is traded for comparably little talent.

I would be horrified by this trade if I was a Diamondbacks fan.

Why should the Tigers be trying to "get younger" right now? Didn't they spent 142 games in first place this year? Was that a fluke? Are they rebuilding?

Because Illitch apprently doesn't want to pay for the Tigers anymore.

Tiger always gets the best of three ways.

CF in Jackson that could end up better than Granderson

I'm sorry, but in what universe? He's the world's most famous tweener.

The chance of any prospect putting up continous 3-4+ WAR seasons are pretty rare, let alone at 7 WAR one.

The Tigers made out alright in a tough situation, but they're still stuck with D-train / Magglio and crew and it's not like they have a Yankee budget. (and even the Yankees aren't stuck with a D-train contract)

Coke's not a bad RP, but those guys can go wrong in a hurry, of course it's not a bad idea to stock pile them though.

Sorry for the vague language, what I meant was I wished the Mets had gotten Granderson, then flipped him for, say, Scherzer, Schlereth and Austin Jackson.

CF in Jackson that could end up better than Granderson.

Could. But it's likely he'll never be anywhere near as good as Granderson.

If the Yankees rent Granderson for 2-3 years (then find some way to move him) I don't see that there's much question he'll help them do what the Yankees do, though I agree his defense is not great. Those diving catches are the other side of bad jumps and bad routes. Still, if money is no object, then the only question is whether you're getting the top line talent and he's got that and he's in his prime. Replacing supporting guys shouldn't be that hard when money is no object. But of course it is.

Anyway in a normal universe the Tigers made a nice deal. In the Yankees' universe this works for them, too.

Anyway in a normal universe the Tigers made a nice deal. In the Yankees' universe this works for them, too.

I agree the Tigers made a nice deal, but not really b/c of the Yankees end of it.

Getting Scherzer basically heads up for Jackson was the big win for Detroit. It seems like Ariz. over-values Kennedy and is overly skeptical of Scherzer.

If the Yankees rent Granderson for 2-3 years (then find some way to move him)

I don't understand this comment. Granderson is signed for 3-years at an AAV of ~$8.5M, and there's an $11M option.
I expect him to play out the 3-years, and if he's good they'll extend him. I don't see how this is "renting" or why they'd be looking to trade him?

Detroit got reamed. Ok, maybe not that bad, but balance out the hyperbole.

First, Granderson is a highly valuable player who basically makes competetiveness a joke when they can get fillers like this for what is essentially nothing. Platoon splits aren't bad, just so long as the batter is fundamentally competent (OPS above 600) and not requiring 2 roster spots to fill a position. Otherwise, can maximize value by the creation of easy choices for rest days while keeping the subs in shape. This deal should be vetoed by a Comm with some guts.

Detroit could end up with slush after Sherzer's arm falls off like everyone predicts, and Jackson, a thoroughly mediocre prospect, fullfills expectations. Maybe one of the backfill pans out.

Why should the Tigers be trying to "get younger" right now? Didn't they spent 142 games in first place this year? Was that a fluke? Are they rebuilding?

They've got a front three of Verlander, Scherzer, and Porcello. I don't see them needing to truly 'rebuild' until that changes.

Detroit could end up with slush after Sherzer's arm falls off like everyone predicts, and Jackson, a thoroughly mediocre prospect, fullfills expectations. Maybe one of the backfill pans out.

No one can predict which pitchers will get hurt and which will throw 3000 IP.

They could also end up with a 200 IP, 3.50 ERA SP under team control for 5-years. Scherzer may be close to that right now.

The Yankees could end up with slush if Granderson's seeming 3-year decline continues. If Granderson's skills really are eroding he could very quickly become a 230/290/400 hitter with -10 to -15 defense in CF.

He's the world's most famous tweener.

Aren't tweeners guys who can't hit enough to play a corner but can't field enough to play center? If that's right, Jackson isn't a tweener. He can play center, the question is whether he'll ever make enough contact to be a serviceable Major League hitter.

They've got a front three of Verlander, Scherzer, and Porcello. I don't see them needing to truly 'rebuild' until that changes.

And next winter, Ordonez, Bonderman, Robertson, and Willis all come off the books, saving about $55 million.

Getting Scherzer basically heads up for Jackson was the big win for Detroit. It seems like Ariz. over-values Kennedy and is overly skeptical of Scherzer...

No one can predict which pitchers will get hurt and which will throw 3000 IP.

They could also end up with a 200 IP, 3.50 ERA SP under team control for 5-years. Scherzer may be close to that right now.

Uh,no. Scherzer barely pitched a 170 innings going through a lineup containing a pitcher. When he faces the higher talent levels of the AL and a DH instead of a pitcher, he's going to struggle to make it into the 5th inning with his high pitch counts. Scherzer killed the Diamondback bullpen last year, Jackson is going to breeze into the 7th inning in the NL West, this deal upgraded the bullpen as much as it did the rotation.

And while it's difficult to predict who will get injured, Scherzer has some of the biggest warning signs of any pitcher in the league. Inverted W, head snap, annual bouts of tendinitus/"arm tiredness", and a pitching style that requires high pitch counts. He's a much bigger risk than the typical pitcher for injury. He's also known as a slow recoverer, so when he is inevitability switched to the bullpen he might not be able to pitch back to back nights.

So the "control years" difference isn't so great when some of those years are spent either in the bullpenor recovering from Tommy John surgery, and when the DBacks likely get 1-2 draft picks in two years if they don't re-sign Jackson.

I never heard of Jackson, so I'm not sure how famous a tweener he is.

Uh,no. Scherzer barely pitched a 170 innings going through a lineup containing a pitcher. When he faces the higher talent levels of the AL and a DH instead of a pitcher, he's going to struggle to make it into the 5th inning with his high pitch counts. Scherzer killed the Diamondback bullpen last year, Jackson is going to breeze into the 7th inning in the NL West, this deal upgraded the bullpen as much as it did the rotation.

No chance the guy develops and learns to pitch more efficiently?

C'mon, he's 25. He averaged 5.67 IP per start in his first full season with a 4.12 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 9.2 K/9, and 2.75 K/BB.

Jackson got beat like a drum in the 2nd half, to the tune of a 856 OPS against. I really see nothing to indicate he's anything but an average pitcher who had a lucky half-season.

Platoon splits aren't bad, just so long as the batter is fundamentally competent (OPS above 600) and not requiring 2 roster spots to fill a position.

An OPS of 600 is competent?

Curtis Granderson is a fine fellow, but he shouldn't never hit against a lefty again, especially if he's no longer a plus defender. He's almost Fukudome territory bad against them. The Yankees lineup is loaded, so I guess they can carry an automatic out against lefties easier than most - and I don't deny that Granderson is great against RHP.

But he's a career 210/270/344 against LHP and was dreadfully worse last year (183/245/239(!)).

Aren't tweeners guys who can't hit enough to play a corner but can't field enough to play center?

I'm guessing by "tweener" he means someone who will be stuck between AAA and the Major Leagues. Since he hasn't played in the Major Leagues yet, I can only assume this is due to his low strikeouts and slugging, among other factors. (Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong).

And next winter, Ordonez, Bonderman, Robertson, and Willis all come off the books, saving about $55 million.

Right, which is why the idea that they needed to save $10M this year is a bit of a head-scratcher. Maybe they use that money to lock up Verlander a year sooner or something, but still.

Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong

You meant high strikeouts.

The Tigers have a good, young front of the rotation, but they've got a bad, old lineup. Black holes at catcher, left field and shortstop; question marks in CF and 2b; overpaid veterans at RF and 3b. Plus a LOT of dead money invested in Willis (my vote for the worst contract extension ever-he was coming off a season with a 5+ era), Bonderman and Robertson.

The mood in Detroy-it (as my Dad used to say) is not happy.

The Tigers have a good, young front of the rotation, but they've got a bad, old lineup. Black holes at catcher, left field and shortstop; question marks in CF and 2b; overpaid veterans at RF and 3b. Plus a LOT of dead money invested in Willis (my vote for the worst contract extension ever-he was coming off a season with a 5+ era), Bonderman and Robertson.

ehhh... no doubt, they've got significant holes - and while his habits and body could certainly point towards an early cliff - they do still have Cabrera.

If one took a look at all 30 teams and wanted to pick the best "4 player core".... I'm not so sure the Tigers aren't the team I'd take. It's problematic that 3 of those 4 are pitchers and the one hitter has some flashing red warning lights attached to him, but that's a damn fine core.

If you factor in age - I think the Yankees drop out of the running. Factor in proven MLB success, and I think Braves (McCann/Hanson/Heyward/pick one) fall off.

If you were starting an MLB team from scratch, and didn't necessarily have to win THIS year, but needed to build a consistent winner for the next 5 years... factoring in existing contracts, and assuming you could raid any team of 4 players (but all 4 had to come from the same team)...

Who else besides Verlander/Porcello/Scherzer/Cabrera?

Lincecum/Cain/Panda/????(Posey?)

The Tigers have a good, young front of the rotation, but they've got a bad, old lineup. Black holes at catcher, left field and shortstop; question marks in CF and 2b; overpaid veterans at RF and 3b. Plus a LOT of dead money invested in Willis (my vote for the worst contract extension ever-he was coming off a season with a 5+ era), Bonderman and Robertson.

Yes, but the bad committments are mostly a 2010 issue. Only Guillen and Cabrera are signed for 2011 ($33M total).

So, if they can add more talent around the Verlander, Porcello, Scherzer, Cabrera core, they should be able to afford it. i.e., their problem after this year is acquiring the talent, not paying for it.

Sherman's take

. The way I heard how the Granderson trade began was that Arizona was trying to get Edwin Jackson at the GM Meetings and was told Max Scherzer was too little of a return, but felt Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth was too much. So Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes' first call was to Cashman because he assumed Granderson fit the Yankees' needs so ideally, and that the Yanks had resources that Detroit wanted.

What the Tigers prioritized in this deal was getting youngsters with either no or very little service time (translation: inexpensive players years away from even arbitration), but players ready to play in the majors in 2010 (translation: No A-ball players).

One key factor that helped this deal along was that Ian Kennedy pitched well in the Diamondbacks' backyard in the Arizona Fall League. The D'backs have long liked Kennedy, but they needed to see health after the righty underwent surgery to remove an aneurysm in his arm. Arizona officials were impressed by his command in the AFL. A scout who saw Kennedy in the AFL said the righty was actually throwing in the mid-90s and scored points with scouts by focusing to pitch well at the same time being separated from a Yankee team working through the playoffs.

The Yanks believe Kennedy will be this year's Ross Ohlendorf: Like Ohlendorf, the Yanks really did like Kennedy, but wondered if he would have fully thrive in the AL East. Ohlendorf went to the Pirates and in his first full season as a major league starter went 11-10 with a 3.92 ERA. Kennedy will now work in the NL West, and the Yanks believe his stuff translates better there. One team executive said, "really, I would not be surprised if he pitched 200 innings and won 12 or more games."

Kennedy throwing in the mid-90s? Someone forgot to tell the scout to switch his radar gun to "mph" from "kph"

And it's so nice to know IPK could actually breathe, eat, and go to the toilet while being separated from the Yankees...

Come on, Levski... Are you honestly going to tell me that the prospect of getting the next Russ Ohlendorf doesn't excite you?

Who else besides Verlander/Porcello/Scherzer/Cabrera?

Reyes/Wright/Beltran/Santana is still pretty good. Pedroia/Lester/Beckett/V-Mart. If you were to do the Yanks, Cano/CC/Teix/A-rod is pretty good for the next five years.

Come on, Levski... Are you honestly going to tell me that the prospect of getting the next Russ Ohlendorf doesn't excite you?

Well, I didn't think much of the original Russ Ohlendorf when he was in AZ...

On an AZ radio show, Josh Byrnes mentioned Jeff Suppan and Kevin Slowey as comps for Kennedy. So de facto he gave up 3 years of Max Scherzer and 6 years of Dan Schlereth hoping he'd get Jeff Suppan in return? Talk about the soft bigotry of low expectations

To be fair, he's getting two Jeff Suppans.

I'm sorry that the people in Detroit are unhappy. It's to be expected; Granderson is the type of player who becomes popular, and reducing payroll is never popular, because fans think it's a bad sign for the future. But Granderson's offensive value is batting average driven, and he's coming up on the cliff years for a player with his profile. He's not that big of an asset. Scherzer is more likely to come close to Jackson's 2009 than Jackson is, and is under control for five more years to Jackson's one. Schlereth is a top relief prospect.

To me, Austin Jackson is just a throw-in lottery ticket; the Tigers weren't going to win in 2010 with their offense except by lucking into it with 85 wins, and really, they've still got a chance, albeit maybe a bit less of one, of lucking into 85 wins. Meanwhile, this isn't a long-term problem with payroll, because it's all sloughing off after 2010. They won't go back to the 2007-09 payroll figure, but they'll be around $90 million, and will have a good $35-40 million of that available to spend by 2011 and 2012.

the Tigers weren't going to win in 2010 with their offense except by lucking into it with 85 wins, and really, they've still got a chance, albeit maybe a bit less of one, of lucking into 85 wins

I would add to that, though, they would be a more dangerous 85 win division winner in the playoffs than most teams with that front three*

*Usual caveats about pitcher health, of course.

No chance the guy develops and learns to pitch more efficiently?

C'mon, he's 25. He averaged 5.67 IP per start in his first full season with a 4.12 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 9.2 K/9, and 2.75 K/BB.

Of course there is. But I watched him all season and he didn't improve during the season, he struggled to get to the 6th in August/Sept exactly as he had in April. And his 2009 was a step back from his 2008 in his components.

And to retain his value he must improve. Because the current Scherzer's FIP is going to rise due to the tougher league (Max had one of the easiest opposing lineups of all NL starters), and his pitch-count is going to be even higher, which is hard to imagine from the guy who led the league in pitches per batter. He is an AL reliever if he does not improve, that's the gamble Detroit is taking.

Jackson got beat like a drum in the 2nd half, to the tune of a 856 OPS against. I really see nothing to indicate he's anything but an average pitcher who had a lucky half-season.

Jackson had a significant rise in BABIP during the second half, while Scherzer didn't and Max still put up a 2nd half .789 OPS against, adjusted for league almost as bad as Jackson. And Max had to skip starts due to "tired arm".

The reality is that Jackson has shown steady improvement over the last 4 years, esp. in his walk rate. Scherzer took a step back last year. Scherzer's K rate and other peripherials are enhanced by pitching against one of the weakest lineups of any league starter, while Jackson had to pitch against some of the toughest. 59 of Edwin's 110 career starts have been against the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Indians, and Angels, which I think have been the best offensive clubs in the AL over the last 4 years.

I understand how Max's FIPs are better, and his K rate is awesome, but that's only one component of value. He's going to force the Tigers to use their worst relievers in the 5th and 6th innings, and if you average Max's FIP with theirs it's not going to be better than Jackson's. Very likely worse because Max's FIPs is a chimera that has benefited from those weak lineups and Jackson's inflated by the strong lineups he faced.

I think Jackson is clearly the better starter now, so Max must improve for Detroit to get equal value. Otherwise the only value Detroit got was the extra control years, which are reduced by the injury risk and Max''s value as a reliever. If I'm wrong I'd be happy to have someone point out the errors in my reasoning.

And to retain his value he must improve. Because the current Scherzer's FIP is going to rise due to the tougher league (Max had one of the easiest opposing lineups of all NL starters), and his pitch-count is going to be even higher, which is hard to imagine from the guy who led the league in pitches per batter. He is an AL reliever if he does not improve, that's the gamble Detroit is taking.

But won't Comerica, to some extent, help with that? Scherzer wasn't truly homer prone, but neither was he all that stingy with the longball.

While I take your point about opposing lineups - I don't know that it's really fair to compare trends between a pitcher with 4 years of ML time vs. one that basically has had one season + 2 months.

The slide in K/BB rate isn't really a good measure when we're comparing 60 innings vs. 170.

I'd be more worried about Scherzer if he was some sort of Bobby Witt one K pony, but he's got a pretty good walk rate. I know there are limits to standing solely on peripherals, but Scherzer's aren't just good -- they border on outstanding. 9.2/9 and 2.75/1 are K/9 and K/BB ratios most any pitcher would be pretty happy to have.

Breaking it down more than just K/9 and whatnot, Scherzer threw 65% strikes at a 75% contact rate in 2009 (Lincecum for example threw 64% strikes/74% contact). That's near the top of the league in both categories and makes it really confusing to me how he could possibly struggle with BBs or pitch count. I think I saw him pitch once so I have no idea, anyone have any clue why that paradox is going on? He's throwing strikes and is also getting swings and misses, what else is there?

That's near the top of the league in both categories and makes it really confusing to me how he could possibly struggle with BBs or pitch count. I think I saw him pitch once so I have no idea, anyone have any clue why that paradox is going on? He's throwing strikes and is also getting swings and misses, what else is there?

I think the DBacks kept him on an extraordinarily tight PC - he only went past 110 pitches once all season. He had a remarkable number of starts where he was right in the 100-109 range.

While I take your point about opposing lineups - I don't know that it's really fair to compare trends between a pitcher with 4 years of ML time vs. one that basically has had one season + 2 months.

The slide in K/BB rate isn't really a good measure when we're comparing 60 innings vs. 170.

It's true Max's MLB sample size is limited so far, and Jackson's improvement is pretty much just walk rate, his other peripherals don't show much of a trend. But let me point out that Kennedy has 250 innings of outstanding minor league performance, very comparable to Scherzer's at the same ages. But he put up 39 innings of stink at age 23 in the AL East, and in this trade he's being called someone whose upside is just back-end rotation filler. So I'm not the only one trying to draw big conclusions from small sample sizes.

I'd be more worried about Scherzer if he was some sort of Bobby Witt one K pony, but he's got a pretty good walk rate. I know there are limits to standing solely on peripherals, but Scherzer's aren't just good -- they border on outstanding. 9.2/9 and 2.75/1 are K/9 and K/BB ratios most any pitcher would be pretty happy to have.

Well here is what his peripherals will look like in the AL.



Facing an above average hitter twice instead of a pitcher is going to make a big difference, his peripheral will drop to good, not outstanding, and his inability to pitch deep into games will make his value as a starter questionable. In the NL he struck out the pitcher 40% of the time, vs. 23% for the average position player. And he walked the position players 50% more often than pitchers. And he never gave up a HR to a pitcher. And all of these adjustments are just swapping out the pitcher for a slightly above average hitter, if you adjust the entire lineup for increased strength of competition it's just going to look worse (something like a 8.5 K rate, 3.7 walk rate, 1.2 HR rate, 4.4 FIP?).

He can always improve. For the Tiger's sake he better.

I think the DBacks kept him on an extraordinarily tight PC - he only went past 110 pitches once all season. He had a remarkable number of starts where he was right in the 100-109 range.

But they also took him from about 110 to 175 innings year over year, counting minor league innings. I'm not sure why he wasn't shut down around 145 or 150, the season was over and that's when he started experiencing some dead arm.

In the NL he struck out the pitcher 40% of the time, vs. 23% for the average position player. And he walked the position players 50% more often than pitchers. And he never gave up a HR to a pitcher.

OK - very good look behind the raw rates... point taken.

If you were starting an MLB team from scratch, and didn't necessarily have to win THIS year, but needed to build a consistent winner for the next 5 years... factoring in existing contracts, and assuming you could raid any team of 4 players (but all 4 had to come from the same team)...

Who else besides Verlander/Porcello/Scherzer/Cabrera?

Interesting question. Yeah, Detroit would probably be the best.

Other teams that might be close....

Tampa: Longoria/Shields/Price/Upton(or Zobrist?)
San Francisco: Lincecum/Cain/Sandoval/Bumgarner?
LAD: Kemp/Ethier/Billingsley/Kershaw

Braves : McCann/Yunel/Jurrjens/Hanson is probably a better quartet than the one proposed earlier.

hoping he'd get Jeff Suppan in return?

Kennedy is about to turn 25 and, I believe, is under AZ's control through age 29 at least. Suppan from ages 25-29 threw 1035 innings with a 103 ERA+. That would be a very nice return. It's the 2 years of Edwin Jackson's Jeff Suppan impersonation in exchange for Scherzer that would seem to be more troublesome.

[Scherzer's] peripherals will drop to good, not outstanding.

Tough crowd. Looking at pitchers with at least 120 IP in 2009, 8.8 K/9 would put him 13th in the majors (1 spot behind himself :-) and 4th in the AL. The 2.5 K/BB would be 37th (8 spots behind himself, just behind uber-prospect Tommy Hanson) and 16th in the AL. Sabathia was 7.7 and 2.9 (7.6 and 2.7 for his career); Lackey 7.1 and 3.0; Hernandez 8.2 and 3.1; Lee (AL only) 6.3 and 3.2. The only AL guys who really blew him away on that combo of measures in 2009 were Lester, Greinke, Verlander and Halladay ("only" 7.8 K/9 but a nearly 6 K/BB).

If you were starting an MLB team from scratch, and didn't necessarily have to win THIS year, but needed to build a consistent winner for the next 5 years... factoring in existing contracts, and assuming you could raid any team of 4 players (but all 4 had to come from the same team)...

Who else besides Verlander/Porcello/Scherzer/Cabrera?

Some very good ones not mentioned so far:

BOS: Lester/Pedroia/Youkilis/Buchholz
COL: Tulo/Ubaldo/Fowler/CarGo
BAL: Wieters/A.Jones/Markakis/Matusz

Each of those players is under team control for at least 4 years, and each team costs less next year than Cabrera.