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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Wait, wait…just yesterday even Steve Phillips (gleep!) said that “Felix Hernandez is the slam dunk, no doubt, landslide winner…”
The postulating on who is deserving of the Cy Young has rightfully started as the 2010 season comes to a close. But two players who clearly should be in the fray are hardly mentioned (except for maybe in Boston).
Boston Red Sox pitchers Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester have in some categories, better numbers than CC Sabathia and Felix Hernandez, yet these two seem to be the contenders. However, if history repeats itself (ask Randy Johnson), Hernandez doesn’t have a chance, which leaves Sabathia as the winner.
...Buchholz and Lester managed to have stellar years despite often times having little run support and teammates with little major league experience. Boston is not a last place team (which usually spells doom for a Cy Young contending pitcher) and with less than a week to play, Boston is still in the playoff hunt, though admittedly only a collapse by either the Yankees or Rays gives the Red Sox a chance at being in the post-season.
If Lester and Buchholz finish the year strong (with at least one more start each) and neither are considered leading contenders you have to wonder what the fascination is with Sabathia.
Repoz
Posted: September 28, 2010 at 05:32 PM | 23 comment(s)
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1. Nasty Nate Posted: September 28, 2010 at 06:12 PM (#3650467)No, it started long ago.
Many people seem to prefer viewing individual performance exclusively through the lens of the awards.
I imagine he's several starts shy of Hernandez
Methinks Mr. Tuttle is not reading too much about this subject these days.
I love Buchholz and he DOES lead the league in ERA/ERA+ which is a big point in his favor. As Greg notes, he is far below the innings of the other candidates and as much as I like him, I don't think he belongs in the discussion.
Lester is probably helping Hernandez more than anything else. There is little to choose between him and CC (and Price and others) and his strong finish highlights that fact. If CC or someone else were standing with 21-22 wins and was CLEARLY the 2nd best pitcher behind a 13 win King Felix I think he would have a better chance but that is not the case.
Playing with regression formulae to fit previous Cy Young voting, I see that:
C.C. will get a boost for making the playoffs.
Felix will get "poor guy, he played for the Mariners" votes. If Felix had pitched for a good team that miraculously didn't score much when he was on the mound, he'd be out of luck.
Those who pitch for Boston will get neither.
Felix in a walk.
Nasty Nate will finish in the Top 5 in number of posts in threads devoted to BBWAA awards.
(also, this article/thread - even not including our posts - is another instance where awards-obsession leads away from baseball discussion, not towards it)
Felix should get the "he's vastly superior to any other pitcher in the AL vote."
But, whatever, moot point, Hernandez is the best choice.
67.0 - King Felix
52.9 - Jon Lester
52.4 - Jered Weaver
50.1 - David Price
48.4 - Justin Verlander
48.1 - CC Sabathia
AL Pitcher WAR (Chone):
5.6 - King Felix
5.4 - Jon Lester
5.3 - Jered Weaver
5.2 - Clay Buchholz
5.1 - CC Sabathia
4.9 - David Price
I'm not sure what accounts for the difference between these numbers. I thought both were based on pretty simple RA and replacement level calculations. Is it an issue of park effects?
Either way, Felix is the Cy Young, whether by a lap or by several yards.
Josh Beckett
Jon Lester
John Lackey
Clay Buchholz
Daisuke Matsuzaka
And then I told you that Lester and Buchholz would be two of the five best starters in the league....
...you'd probably have said the Red Sox will win 100 games.
Damn - if Youkilis and Pedroia hadn't gotten hurt, and/or Beckett had pitched well, I think this team is in the playoffs. I also think the Tampa/New York/Boston race for two playoff spots would've been the best playoff race in the Wild Card era.
Alas, it was not meant to be...but watching Buchholz and Lester this year has been a lot of fun.
No, I'd have said the Red Sox haven't won 100 games since 1946, and an emerging Buchholz won't make up for John "worst signing by Theo ever*" Lackey, and Beckett and Dice-K's mediocrity.
But yeah, a few less injuries, Paps not having his worst year ever, Lackey/Beckett doing a bit better. Any one of these and Sox are still in it. Of course NY/TB collapsing somewhat at the end here makes that more possible.
*Said before I quite understood pitcher WAR and value.
Josh Beckett
Jon Lester
John Lackey
Clay Buchholz
Daisuke Matsuzaka
but you failed to mention that 3 of those guys have only been good for 5 1/3 innings every time out AND unfortunately neither Lester nor Buccholz can throw a CG every time out. Which of course means they have had to use the pen...and well we pretty much know that it sucked this year.
Even with 4/9 of an AAA lineup for half a season, they still managed to score plenty of runs. The season was lost when Buccholz missed 6 starts after running the bases in that f*cking interleague game(yeah, I'm still bitter). And of course the inevitable meltdown in innings 5-7 that occured in pretty much every Dice-K and Lackey start. AND of course, that pen...that crappy, crappy pen.
Yeah, but next year, if they don't pitch like they did this year, it will be frustrating.
It really would be one of the more revolutionary acts in baseball awards history--and indication that there will be a break from the past thinking about how we assign these awards; if it sticks (and I have my doubts it will), the ripple effects could be huge (starting with--in 30 years' time--how we think about the question: "Should this guy be in the Hall of Fame?").
To us here on BTF, of course (and I'm assuming here most would say King Felix a the best pitcher in the AL), this doesn't seem all that remarkable a statement to make, but for the old farts at the BBWAA to vote him the Cy Young award with an 13-12 record... 10 years ago you would have said anyone predicting that was a flat-out loon.
That's the thing, it's not the old farts. The guys voting on the major awards are the beat guys, the writers working every day in baseball. They stay abreast with the developments in the game by reading others. They read about it, where more and more writers are comfortable in using advanced metrics. They talk to the front office guys, more and more of whom are using advanced metrics. They have almost no choice but to be at least conversant in statheadese. Felix is going to win this thing because these voters, as opposed to their Chassian forebearers or rabble rousing Marriotians, are far more comfortable with new metrics.
Why? He's got more wins and IP than Price and Lester, but worse ERA and win %. he's got more wins and better win % than Felix, but worse ERA and IP. I realize that being a well above average innings eater pitching in front of a great offense has been a recipe for CYA doesn't mean I have to support it.
My ballot would be Felix, Price, CC (unless Lester pulls something special in is last start.)
As a Jays fan, I never got tired of hearing that out of his trapper.
And if Adrian Beltre would be an MVP candidate and Papi would hit 30 home runs? 146 wins is my guestimate.
The awesome individual performances by Buchholz, Beltre and Ortiz - 3 supporting players coming into the season - will always make 2010 painful.
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