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Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Season Prediction thread

The season has (sort of) started! Let’s make predictions!

Gamingboy Posted: March 28, 2012 at 03:37 PM | 108 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: community, predictions

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   1. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: March 28, 2012 at 04:00 PM (#4091530)
Seattle will win on Opening Day.

The rest I'm less sure of;

AL East - New York
AL Central - Detroit
AL West - Texas
Wild Cards - Boston, Tampa Bay
AL Champ - Detroit
MVP - Adrian Gonzalez
Cy Young - Felix Hernandez

NL East - Philadelphia
NL Central - Milwaukee
NL West - San Francisco
Wild Cards - Atlanta, Cincinnati
NL Champ - Philadelphia
MVP - Andrew McCutchen
Cy Young - Matt Cain

WS Champ - Philadelphia
   2. SoSH U at work Posted: March 28, 2012 at 04:06 PM (#4091540)
AL East - Tampa
AL Central - Kansas City
AL West - Los Angeles
Wild cards - New York, Texas
AL Champ - Texas
MVP - Evan Longoria
Cy Young - Jered Weaver

NL East - Miami
NL Central - Cincinnati
NL West - San Francisco
NL Wild Cards - Philadelphia, Arizona
NL Champ - Miami
MVP - Joey Votto
Cy Young - Matt Cain

WS Champ - Miami


   3. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 28, 2012 at 04:07 PM (#4091542)
AL East - Tampa Bay
AL Central - Detroit
AL West - Los Angeles
AL WC - Boston
AL WC - New York

NL East - Atlanta
NL Central - Cincinnati
NL West - Arizona
NL WC - Miami
NL WC - San Francisco

Boston over New York
Tampa Bay over Boston
Los Angeles over Detroit
Los Angeles over Tampa Bay

Miami over San Francisco
Atlanta over Miami
Cincinnati over Arizona
Atlanta over Cincinnati

Atlanta over Los Angeles

AL MVP: Evan Longoria, TBR
NL MVP: Justin Upton, ARI
AL Cy: David Price, TBR
NL Cy: Zack Grienke, MIL
AL ROY: Jesus Montero, SEA
NL ROY: Bryce Harper, WAS
   4. Nasty Nate Posted: March 28, 2012 at 04:09 PM (#4091546)
I predict:

- no perfect games, but 2 no-hitters
- another PED scandal
- a SP gets a sub-2.00 ERA
- the world series is a sweep
   5. Derb Posted: March 28, 2012 at 04:11 PM (#4091552)
Al East - Tampa Bay
AL Central - Detroit
AL West - Los Angeles
AL Wild Cards - New York, Texas

NL East - Philadelphia
NL Central - Cincinnati
NL West - San Francisco
NL Wild Cards - Miami, St. Louis

World Series - San Francisco over Detroit

Al MVP - Jose Bautista
AL Cy Young - David Price

NL MVP - Buster Posey
NL Cy Young - Clayton Kershaw
   6. Randy Jones Posted: March 28, 2012 at 04:13 PM (#4091556)
AL East - Yankees
AL Central - Detroit
AL West - Angels
WC - Red Sox, Rays

ROY - Montero
MVP - Cabrera
CYA - CC



NL East - Marlins
NL Central - Reds
NL West - Dodgers
WC - Phillies, Giants

ROY - Harper
MVP - Tulowitzki
CYA - Halladay



WS - Yankees over Giants
   7. phredbird Posted: March 28, 2012 at 04:14 PM (#4091559)
LA Dodgers win the WS, bay-bee!
   8. staring out the window and waiting for fenderbelly Posted: March 28, 2012 at 04:25 PM (#4091568)
AL East - NYY
AL Central - Tigers
AL West - Rangers
AL WC - TB
AL WC - Angels

NL East - Marlins
NL Central - Reds
NL West - Diamondbacks
NL WC - Phillies
NL WC - Brewers

AL champ - Tigers
NL champ - Brewers

WS - Brewers

AL MVP: M Cabrera
NL MVP: J Upton
AL Cy: Price
NL Cy: Grienke
   9. Demitri Krotchliknioff Posted: March 28, 2012 at 04:28 PM (#4091574)
Pain.
   10. hardrain Posted: March 28, 2012 at 04:31 PM (#4091577)
AL East - NYY
AL Central - Tigers
AL West - Angels
AL WC - TB, Texas


NL East - Phillies
NL Central - Reds
NL West - Diamondbacks
NL WC - Marlins
NL WC - Braves

AL champ - Yankees
NL champ - Marlins

WS - Yankees
   11. Nasty Nate Posted: March 28, 2012 at 04:39 PM (#4091589)
Pain.


Anyone who predicts differently is selling something.
   12. Randy Jones Posted: March 28, 2012 at 04:43 PM (#4091596)
   13. radioman Posted: March 28, 2012 at 04:46 PM (#4091604)
AL East - New York
AL Central - Detroit
AL West - LA
Wild Cards - Texas, Tampa Bay
AL Champ - New York
MVP - Albert Pujols
Cy Young - CC Sabathia

NL East - Philadelphia
NL Central - Cincinnati
NL West - San Francisco
Wild Cards - Atlanta, Miami
NL Champ - Atlanta
MVP - Jose Reyes
Cy Young - Clayton Kershaw

WS Champ - Yankees
   14. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: March 28, 2012 at 05:05 PM (#4091627)
I predict that the Mariners will not continue to have the highest win total in the majors for the entire season.
   15. TerpNats Posted: March 28, 2012 at 05:09 PM (#4091630)
AL East: Tampa Bay
AL Central: Detroit
AL West: Texas
Wild cards: L.A. Angels, N.Y. Yankees
AL champ: Texas
MVP: Napoli
Cy Young: Verlander

NL East: Philadelphia
NL Central: Milwaukee
NL West: Arizona
Wild cards: Atlanta, Washington
NL champ: Milwaukee
MVP: Kemp
Cy Young: Zimmermann

WS champ: Texas
   16. Sexy Lizard Posted: March 28, 2012 at 05:10 PM (#4091631)
AL East: Baltimore
AL Central: Minnesota
AL West: Seattle
AL WC: Kansas City
AL WC: Oakland

NL East: New York
NL Central: Houston
NL West: San Diego
NL WC: Pittsburgh
NL WC: Chicago

AL Champ: Seattle
NL Champ: Houston

WS: Houston

AL MVP: Bill Hall, NYY
NL MVP: Matt Diaz, ATL
AL Cy: Oliver Perez, SEA
NL Cy: Barry Zito, SFG
AL ROY: Dane De La Rosa, TB
NL ROY: Lars Anderson, SDP

WS MVP: Carlos Corporan, HOU
   17. Squash Posted: March 28, 2012 at 05:20 PM (#4091643)
AL East: Baltimore
AL Central: Minnesota
AL West: Seattle
AL WC: Kansas City
AL WC: Oakland

NL East: New York
NL Central: Houston
NL West: San Diego
NL WC: Pittsburgh
NL WC: Chicago


I predict at least one of these will be correct.
   18. Swedish Chef Posted: March 28, 2012 at 05:28 PM (#4091648)
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Angels
AL WC: Rays vs Red Sox -> Rays

Rays over Angels
Yankees over Tigers

Yankees over Rays

NL East: Marlins
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Giants
NL WC: Phillies vs Braves -> Braves

Marlins over Brewers
Giants over Braves

Giants over Marlins

Giants over Yankees

AL MVP: Longoria
AL CY: Sabathia
AL ROY: Montero

NL MVP: Reyes
NL CY: Johnson
NL ROY: Harper
   19. Davo Dozier Posted: March 28, 2012 at 05:33 PM (#4091656)
I predict:

...that one of Matt Downs, Brent Morel, or Todd Frazier will hit 30 home runs.

...that one of Felipe Paulino, Cory Lueke, or Chris Capuano will accumulate 5 WAR.

...that the Dodgers will make the playoffs.

...that the Royals will win more games than the Diamondbacks.

...that the Tigers will win fewer than 88 games.
   20. Mattbert Posted: March 28, 2012 at 06:04 PM (#4091683)
All I know for sure is that the Athletics are gonna go 162-0, baby! Woooooo!
   21. Gamingboy Posted: March 28, 2012 at 06:11 PM (#4091693)
ALE: Yankees
ALC: Tigers
ALW: Angels
ALWCs: Rays and Rangers (Rays win)

NLE: Phils
NLC: Reds
NLW: D-Backs
NLWCs: Giants and Marlins (Giants win)

Phillies beat Tigers in WS.

AL CY: Verlander.
AL MVP: Pujols.
AL RoY: Darvish.

NL CY: Doc Halladay
NL MVP: Kemp.
NL RoY: Yonder Alonso
   22. deputydrew Posted: March 28, 2012 at 06:47 PM (#4091726)
AL East: New York
AL Central: Detroit
AL West: Texas
Wild cards: Boston, Tampa Bay
AL champ: New York
MVP: Adrian Gonzalez
Cy Young: Felix Hernandez

NL East: Washington
NL Central: St. Louis
NL West: San Francisco
Wild cards: Milwaukee, Miami
NL champ: San Francisco
MVP: Jose Reyes
Cy Young: Zack Greinke

WS champ: San Francisco
   23. Kiko Sakata Posted: March 28, 2012 at 06:56 PM (#4091742)
AL East: Tampa
AL Central: White Sox (it's boring to go with the overwhelming favorite)
AL West: Texas
Wild Cards: Anaheim, Detroit
AL Champ: Texas

NL East: Philly
NL Central: Cincy
NL West: LA
Wild Cards: Washington, Milwaukee
NL Champ: Philly

WS Champ: Texas
   24. Walt Davis Posted: March 28, 2012 at 07:03 PM (#4091750)
I predict* ...

the Mayan civilization will not survive past 2012.

Ryan Braun will not become the promotional spokesperson for Frigidaire.

Craig Biggio will be elected to the HoF.

Mets fanboys will give me grief when Ike Davis has a 140 OPS+ through May 15.

Justin Verlander will be torn apart by the competing gravitational pulls of Cabrera and Fielder.

the Cubs will repeat 1977.

Now, let's see

Yanks, Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Rangers
Phillies, Braves, Reds, Cards, an 84-win NL West team

Because God hates me ... Yanks over either Reds/Cards

NL MVP: Ian Stewart
AL MVP: Prince Fielder (Ryan Howard impersonation)

NL CYA: ohhh ... let's go Kershaw
AL CYA: Justin Verlander

* some predictions may be for humorous intent ... like there is no way an NL West team will win as many as 84 games
   25. AndrewJ Posted: March 28, 2012 at 07:09 PM (#4091753)
AL East: Yankees
ALCentral: Tigers
AL West: Rangers
Wild-card winner: Angels

NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Reds
NL West: Giants
Wild-card winner: Nats

World Series winner: Phillies
   26. Dan Posted: March 28, 2012 at 07:23 PM (#4091763)
AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Rangers
AL Wildcards: Yankees, Rays
AL CY: Verlander
AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez
AL ROY: Darvish

NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: Giants
NL WCs: Atlanta, Washington
NL CY: Strasburg
NL MVP: Matt Kemp
NL ROY: Harper

WS Champ: Boston Red Sox
   27. TerpNats Posted: March 28, 2012 at 07:24 PM (#4091764)
AL East: Yankees
ALCentral: Tigers
AL West: Rangers
Wild-card winner: Angels

NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Reds
NL West: Giants
Wild-card winner: Nats

World Series winner: Phillies
But who will the Angels and Nats beat in their respective wild-card games, Andrew?
   28. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: March 28, 2012 at 07:30 PM (#4091770)
I predict a lot of people will over-estimate the improvement of the Marlins.
   29. Willie Mayspedes Posted: March 28, 2012 at 07:32 PM (#4091771)
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Rangers
AL Wildcards: Angels, Red Sox
AL CY: Jered Weaver
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
AL ROY: Matt Moore

NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Giants
NL WCs: Diamondbacks, Braves
NL CY: Grienke
NL MVP: Pablo Sandoval (.340 Avg)
NL ROY: Paul Goldschmidt (35 HR's)

WS Champ: Braves over Angels (Jason Heyward 3 Hrs, Pujols hits .350 but rest of lineup stinks in series)
   30. Davo Dozier Posted: March 28, 2012 at 07:33 PM (#4091774)
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Rangers
Wild Cards: Angels and Rays

NL East: Marlins
NL Central: Reds
NL West: Dodgers
Wild Cards: Phillies and Cardinals

I think the Yankees will have the best record, so I'll go for them to win the World Series.

I'll also take the sucker's bet, that the Astros will lose more than 110 games. (Last team to do that: The 2004 Diamondbacks.)
   31. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: March 28, 2012 at 07:44 PM (#4091780)
AL East: NYY
AL Central: DET
AL West: LAA

AL wild-card teams: BOS over TEX
ALDS: NYY over BOS; LAA over DET
ALCS: NYY over LAA

NL East: PHI
NL Central: STL
NL West: SFG

NL wild-card teams: MIL over CHC
NLDS: PHI over MIL; SFG over STL
NLCS: PHI over SFG

World Series: NYY over PHI

Yes, that's the Cubs in the NL wild-card game. My system may be deeply cynical, but over time it beats any other I've ever seen.
   32. They paved Misirlou, put up a parking lot Posted: March 28, 2012 at 07:48 PM (#4091783)
AL East - TBR
AL Central - DET
AL West - TEX
WC - NYY and LAA
MVP - Pujols
CYA - Matt Moore

NL East - ATL
NL Central - MIL
NL West - Giants
WC - MIA and LAD
MVP - Giancarlo Stanton
CYA - Josh Johnson

AL Champ - TBR
NL Champ - MIA

WS Champ - TBR

Bonus prediction - No more than 5 of my predictions (including this one) will be correct
   33. AndrewJ Posted: March 28, 2012 at 07:51 PM (#4091785)
But who will the Angels and Nats beat in their respective wild-card games, Andrew?

Beats me.
   34. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Panda. Posted: March 28, 2012 at 08:02 PM (#4091792)
AL East - Red Sox
AL Central - Tigers
AL West - Rangers
Wild cards - Rays beat Angels
ALDS - Rays beat Tigers, Rangers beat Red Sox
ALCS - Rangers beat Rays
MVP - Miguel Cabrera
Cy Young - Jon Lester

NL East - Braves
NL Central - Reds
NL West - D-Backs
Wild Cards - Phillies beat Cardinals
NLDS - Reds beat Phillies, Braves beat D-Backs
NLCS - Reds beat Braves
MVP - Justin Upton
Cy Young - Roy Halladay

World Series Champ - Texas Rangers (finally)
   35. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: March 28, 2012 at 08:29 PM (#4091807)
You are, as always, a bunch of cowards, who couldn't pick their way out of a paper bag. This is how it's done:

Boston    94    Detroit     94    Texas       92    
New York  93    Kansas City 81    Los Angeles 88    
Tampa Bay 88    Minnesota   79    Oakland     71    
Toronto   81    Cleveland   78    Seattle     71    
Baltimore 67    Chicago     70    

Phila
.    91    Cincinnati  89    Arizona     88 
Miami     85    Milwaukee   86    San Fran
.   87  
Atlanta   84    St
Louis   84    Los Angeles 85   
Wash
.     81    Pittsburgh  74    Colorado    81    
New York  69    Chicago     69    San Diego   71   
                Houston     59 


AL
WC play-in: Angels over Rays (12th inning Pujols walk-off HR)
WC: Yankees over Angels
DS: Red Sox over Rangers in 5
Yankees over Tigers in 4
CS: Red Sox over Yankees in 5

NL
WC: Brewers over Giants
DS: Phillies over Brewers in 3
Reds over D-Backs in 4
CS: Reds over Phillies in 7


WS: Red Sox over Reds in 6

AL MVP Adrian Gonzalez
AL CY Felix Hernandez
AL ROY Yu Darvish

NL MVP Matt Kemp
NL CY Roy Halladay
NL ROY Ryce Harper

That's the season. No reason to play the games. Have fun with your whole 'watching the games' nonsense.
   36. They paved Misirlou, put up a parking lot Posted: March 28, 2012 at 08:30 PM (#4091808)
MVP - Pujols


Just to elaborate on this, all time great players who change careers while still in their prime usually step it up a notch, and as often as not win a major award. Bonds, Frank Robinson, Maddux, Randy Johnson, Clemens, and Carlton all won MVP or CYA their first year with a new team. Rickey Henderson, Tom Seaver, A Rod, and Joe Morgan did not, but all were decent candidates. Ricky and Joe led their leagues in WAR. Seaver went 16-3 with a 169 ERA+ after the trade. A Rod didn't deserve the award, but could have won with a .318/52/135 triple crown line had the Rangers done better.

Going further down the career WAR list, Fergie Jenkins won 25 games and was a close second in CYA for Texas after the trade. Griffey was a "disappointing" .271/40/118. Reggie Jackson led the league in OPS+ but didn't get much MVP love. Pedro Martinez was a distant second in CYA to Clemens' triple crown season. Jim Thome won his only HR title his first year in Philly.

That's every modern player above 70 career WAR who changed teams for the first time while still in their primes. I think Pujols will have a terrific year.

edit: and though he wasn't a recent player, that Ruth guy did pretty well also, though he didn't win an award.
   37. Kiko Sakata Posted: March 28, 2012 at 08:44 PM (#4091822)
Just to elaborate on this, all time great players who change careers while still in their prime usually step it up a notch, and as often as not win a major award.


He's a notch (or two or three) below all of the guys you mention, but Vlad Guerrero won an MVP award in his first season with the Angels.
   38. robinred Posted: March 28, 2012 at 08:47 PM (#4091825)
AL:

EAST-BOSTON
CENTRAL-DETROIT
WEST-LOS ANGELES
WCS--NEW YORK AND TEXAS

NL:

EAST-PHILADELPHIA
CENTRAL-CINCINNATI
WEST-SAN FRANCISCO
WCS--MILWAUKEE AND MIAMI
   39. They paved Misirlou, put up a parking lot Posted: March 28, 2012 at 08:48 PM (#4091826)
Expanding on the Ruth comment:

Ruth - Yes, would have won MVP had it existed

Tris Speaker - ditto

Eddie Collins - no, but a terrific (10.1 WAR) season

Hornsby - 3rd in MVP but probably deserved it. led the league in WAR

Pete Alexander - went to the western front. N/A

Nap Lajoie - led league in everything but triples and walks. Would have been unanimous MVP.

Jimmie Foxx - a disappointment like Griffey was, Good year but below personal standards.

Lefty Grove - very poor season. The only stinker in the bunch. But then again, he was 34. Probably not fair to count that as in prime.

Gaylord Perry - missed him above. Won (and deserved) CYA.

Blyleven - Missed him as well. So-so year. Pitched well, but missed a bunch of starts and had a losing record.


That's every 20th century player with over 80 career WAR.






   40. frannyzoo Posted: March 28, 2012 at 08:50 PM (#4091827)
Might I just interject that while I'm not completely married to the whole "Cincinnati has to host the Opening Day game during the afternoon on a day in which no other games occur" scenario, this is as about as ######-up a way to galvanize excitement for baseball as possible? As in, not even if you were trying to actively undermine excitement for the impending season bad?

And now back to your regularly scheduled prognostications....btw, the Rangers are winning it all. Just so you know.
   41. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: March 28, 2012 at 08:53 PM (#4091832)
Seriously. I expect the Marlins-signed-famous-people-so-they're-awesome silliness from the MSM, but it's weird seeing all of this Miami swill here. They got better. They were *really friggin' terrible* before.
   42. cabintwelve Posted: March 28, 2012 at 09:02 PM (#4091840)
The Pirates will not win 70 games.
The Royals will not win 80 games.
The Phillies will not win 90 games.

Trevor Bauer will win the NL ROY.

The Twins will finish 2nd in the AL Central.

Giancarlo Stanton will have a coming out party, win the Home Run Derby and drive in the GW RBI in the AS game. The Marlins will finish 3rd in the NL East.
   43. They paved Misirlou, put up a parking lot Posted: March 28, 2012 at 09:03 PM (#4091843)
My Marlins picks were mostly frivolous, and if I had to put my money where my mouth was, I would probably not pick them. That said, IF Josh Johnson can stay healthy, he is a legit CYA threat. And IF Stanton can up his game another notch he is a legit MVP candidate. And IF both those things happened, like I "predicted they will", the Fish are definitely in the hunt for a wild card. And the Marlins ALWAYS win the pennant when they are the wild card.

The Phillies have terrific pitching, but their offense has a good chance to be abysmal.
   44. robinred Posted: March 28, 2012 at 09:07 PM (#4091850)
I picked the Marlins to be a WC simply because I dig their new HR celebration machine.
   45. zachtoma Posted: March 28, 2012 at 09:08 PM (#4091851)
AL West - Angels
AL Central - Tigers
AL East - Yankees
Wild Cards - Rangers/Jays

NL West - Rockies
NL Central - Cardinals
NL East - Nationals
Wild Cards - Marlins/Giants

AL Playoffs
Rangers over Jays

Yankees over Rangers
Angels over Tigers

Yankees over Angels

NL Playoffs
Giants over Marlins

Cardinals over Giants
Nationals over Rockies

Cardinals over Nationals

World Series
Yankees over Cardinals
(historically, the most conservative of all possible WS predictions)

Awards
NL MVP - Troy Tulowitzki
(dark horse - Giancarlo Stanton)
AL MVP - Albert Pujols
(dark horse - Carlos Santana)
NL Cy - Stephen Strasburg
AL Cy - CC Sabathia
NL RoY - Trevor Bauer
AL RoY - Jesus Montero
   46. Davo Dozier Posted: March 28, 2012 at 09:15 PM (#4091858)
Go big or go home:

All 30 teams finish 81-81. The post-season gets canceled. No awards are given.
   47. They paved Misirlou, put up a parking lot Posted: March 28, 2012 at 09:22 PM (#4091870)
Seriously. I expect the Marlins-signed-famous-people-so-they're-awesome silliness from the MSM, but it's weird seeing all of this Miami swill here. They got better. They were *really friggin' terrible* before.


They are replacing Gregg Dobbs with Jose Reyes. That's got to be good for 4 wins.

Hanley Ramirez was terrible last year. If he returns to career norms, that's another 4 wins.

Mike Stanton could easily improve by another win or 2.

Mark Buehrle and Josh Johnson replace 2 replacement level guys in the rotation. That's another 8-9 wins.

Zambrano is a wild card. He could be great, he could be crap. Let's just say he replaces Vasquez' production (32 starts, 106 ERA+).

That's 88-90 wins and in the WC hunt.

Yeah, that's a lot that has to go right, and I wouldn't put money on it. But in a no-risk prediction exercise like this, that's where I put my internet bucks. I await your scorn.
   48. JJ1986 Posted: March 28, 2012 at 09:30 PM (#4091878)
AL East - Tampa Bay
AL Central - Detroit
AL West - Los Angeles Angels
AL WC - Yankees over Kansas City
MVP - Pujols
Cy Young - CC
ROY - Moore

NL East - Philadelphia
NL Central - Milwaukee
NL West - Colorado
NL Wild card - Atlanta over Washington
MVP - LWJ
Cy Young - Hamels
ROY - Arenado

AL Champs - LAA
NL Champs - Atlanta
WS - LAA

   49. They paved Misirlou, put up a parking lot Posted: March 28, 2012 at 09:34 PM (#4091881)
MVP - LWJ


Larry Walker Jr.?
   50. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: March 28, 2012 at 09:37 PM (#4091884)
Reyes replaces Dobbs. That's +4. Ramirez was terrible last year, only nominally better in 2010. Expecting him to bounce back to 140+ OPS is a stretch. Assume he bounces back to 2010 (not peak) and give him a +3.

Mike Stanton posted a 140+ as a 21 year old. Expecting *more* out of him is just silly. +0

Buehrle (3.7 WAR in 2010) is actually replacing Javy Vazquez (2.5 WAR in 2010.) It's a win advantage at most. I'll give you an extra 4 wins for a healthy, rebounded Johnson. +5 on the rotation. Throw in another +1 for Zambrano over Brad Hand and hell, throw in another +1 for Heath Bell while you're at it.

+4+3+0+1+4+1+1 = +14

The Marlins finished 30 games out last year, and 13 behind Atlanta.

So, 14 is more than 13, right? Sure, but now you have to apply the everything goes right calcs to the Braves.

+3 from Prado. +3 from Heyward. +2 from Bourn (over McLouth, etc.) +1 for replacing Derek Lowe. Now the Marlins are not so good again.

Just seems a little silly to me. They got better.

They were *really, really bad.*
   51. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: March 28, 2012 at 09:47 PM (#4091893)
I also think it's highly unlikely that both WC's come from the same division.
   52. Mattbert Posted: March 28, 2012 at 09:50 PM (#4091895)
AL East: Rays
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Angels
AL Wild Cards: Yankees, Red Sox

NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Reds
NL West: Giants
NL Wild Cards: Brewers, Nationals

Red Sox over Yankees
Angels over Red Sox
Rays over Tigers
Rays over Angels

Brewers over Nationals
Phillies over Brewers
Reds over Giants
Phillies over Reds

Phillies over Rays

AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez
AL CYA: Jered Weaver
AL ROY: Matt Moore

NL MVP: Jay Bruce
NL CYA: Cole Hamels
NL ROY: Nolan Arenado
   53. Juan V Posted: March 28, 2012 at 09:52 PM (#4091899)
AL East: NYY
AL Centre: DET
AL West: TEX
AL Wild Cards: LAA, TB
AL Pennant: TEX
AL MVP: Pujols
AL Cy: Carsten Charles

NL East: ATL
NL Centre: STL
NL West: SF
NL Wild Cards: PHI, MIL
NL Pennant: ATL
NL MVP: Tulo
NL Cy: Greinke

World Series Champion: TEX
2013 #1 Draft Pick: OAK
   54. zachtoma Posted: March 28, 2012 at 09:53 PM (#4091900)
Additionally, I'm pretty bearish on these teams going in to 2012:

Phillies - Without Utley and Howard for substantial parts of the year, that lineup is dismal. And old. Dismal and old.

Red Sox - They are starting to look like a disaster before they've even played a game. Seems like the culture of that organization has only become more toxic over the winter. Doesn't mean they can't win of course, but it's hard to feel optimistic about them.

Braves - Yeah, I'm a Braves fan, but they don't seem like they really want to be a major league organization anymore. They had gaping holes at LF and SS all off-season and did precisely nothing. They won't spend a dime. Now we're going into the year choosing between one not-MLB-ready SS and another never-will-be-ready SS. I've always been a skeptic of Martin Prado and I think his 2011 season was pretty close to the "real" Prado we can expect going forward, but he's not even our LF, and he won't be for however many games Chipper misses. Injuries in the rotation are a real concern. I'm not convinced Heyward is back on track. 2012 looks to me like a big disappointment waiting to happen.

Dodgers - I see them showing up as a 'dark horse', or more accurately a 'feel good' pick several times here. Kemp and Kershaw were worth 17 WAR together last season, what are the odds of that happening again? The rest of the roster has gotten worse too thanks to some of Ned Colletti's most dreadful work this off-season. I don't think Andre Ethier is coming back as a force in the lineup. A .500 record looks like the ceiling to me. I could easily see 90 losses.

Larry Walker Jr.?


The one and only Larry Wayne Jones. It's a nice thought, but I doubt it; he's already out two weeks after having his knee operated on.
   55. They paved Misirlou, put up a parking lot Posted: March 28, 2012 at 09:54 PM (#4091901)
They were *really, really bad.*


Your math gives them 86 wins. Mine 88-90. Is that really worth quibbling about?

They weren't really, really bad. They won 72 games. That's bad, but hardly meriting the really, really prefix. Teams go from 72 to 90 wins all the time. OK, not literally all the time, but it's hardly remarkable. The Rays did it in 2008. The Rangers did it in 2004. The Giants did it in 2009. The Padres did it in 2010. The Dodgers in 2006. The Angels in 2002. The tigers in 2006. The Rockies in 2009. The White Sox in 2008. The Diamondbacks last year. The Mariners went from 61 to 85 recently.

   56. They paved Misirlou, put up a parking lot Posted: March 28, 2012 at 10:00 PM (#4091905)
I also think it's highly unlikely that both WC's come from the same division.


Last year it would have been BOS and TBR.

In 2010 it would have been BOS and NYY

In 2009 it would have been COL and SFG

In 2008 it would have been BOS and NYY

In 2007 it would have been COL and SDP

In 2006 it would have been DET and CHW

OK, with another playoff spot on the line, the dynamics may have changed the outcome, but that's pretty good evidence that it's very possible.

   57. Lassus Posted: March 28, 2012 at 10:14 PM (#4091916)
As pathetic as it is, I can't really make any predictions until I look at things more.

But -

I will make this prediction: The Mets finish within three games of the Phils, above or below. And the Marlins end up ahead of the Braves.
   58. They paved Misirlou, put up a parking lot Posted: March 28, 2012 at 10:22 PM (#4091923)
Mike Stanton posted a 140+ as a 21 year old. Expecting *more* out of him is just silly. +0


There have been eleven 21 year olds to post a WAR between 5.0 and 6.0 in MLB history. Stanton was at 5.7. The other 10:

Frank Robinson went from 6.0 to 4.5 the following year.

Ted Williams went from 6.0 to 11.3

Al Kaline went from 5.8 to 4.9

Stan Musial went from 5.8 to 8.9

Joe Morgan went from 5.5 to 3.6

Mickey Mantle went from 5.3 to 7.8

Hal Trosky went from 5.2 to 0.7

Stuffy McInnins went from 5.2 to 5.8

Tom Brunansky went from 5.0 to 2.5

Sherry Magee went from 5.0 to 7.1

OK, maybe Stanton is just Brunansky part II. I'd say that's more likely than him being Musial, Williams, or Mantle. But the fact is, 5 of those 10 improved, 4 of them by a lot.

   59. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: March 28, 2012 at 10:35 PM (#4091939)
OK, maybe Stanton is just Brunansky part II. I'd say that's more likely than him being Musial, Williams, or Mantle. But the fact is, 5 of those 10 improved, 4 of them by a lot.


I think the question is better posed "Is Gio Stanton Ted Williams, Stan Musial or Mickey Mantle?" I think the answer to that is "probably not." He may be great. He may be HOF great one day. But Frank Robinson, Al Kaline, and Joe Morgan were all HOF great and they all regressed slightly. I don't think he has to be Tom Brunansky. I just don't think he's Stan Musial or Ted Williams.
   60. Graham & the 15-win "ARod Vortex of suck" Posted: March 28, 2012 at 10:50 PM (#4091949)
I predict a lot of people will over-estimate the improvement of the Marlins.


But probably not as much as everyone is over-estimating the improvement of the Reds.
   61. outl13r Posted: March 28, 2012 at 10:56 PM (#4091955)
He reminds me a lot of Stuffy McInnis. [scrambles over to bb-ref to figure out who the hell that is...]
   62. Davo Dozier Posted: March 28, 2012 at 10:59 PM (#4091959)
And another (a serious one): More runs will be scored this year than were scored last year.
   63. McCoy Posted: March 28, 2012 at 11:01 PM (#4091960)
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Angels

AL WC: Texas
AL WC: Tampa

NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Giants

NL WC: Arizona
NL WC: Atlanta

World Series: Giants vs Tigers

WS Winners: Tigers

Cubs lose 94 games.
   64. They paved Misirlou, put up a parking lot Posted: March 28, 2012 at 11:04 PM (#4091961)
I think the question is better posed "Is Gio Stanton Ted Williams, Stan Musial or Mickey Mantle?" I think the answer to that is "probably not." He may be great. He may be HOF great one day. But Frank Robinson, Al Kaline, and Joe Morgan were all HOF great and they all regressed slightly. I don't think he has to be Tom Brunansky. I just don't think he's Stan Musial or Ted Williams.


Widening the search slightly. Players between 4.7 and 6.7 (+/- 1.0 from Stanton's 5.7) at age 21 we add:

Hank Aaron went from 6.7 to 7.5
Ty Cobb 6.7 to 10.6
Mel Ott - 6.6 to 6.1
Arky Vaughan 6.5 to 7.1
Tris speaker - 6.2 to 7.6
Johnny Bench - 6.1 to 6.5
Justin Upton - 4.8 to 3.2
Joe DiMaggio - 4.8 to 9.0
Alex Rodriguez - 4.8 to 7.9
Whitey Lockman - 4.8 to 3.5

Regardless of the predictions, that's damned impressive company he's keeping.
   65. Davo Dozier Posted: March 28, 2012 at 11:04 PM (#4091962)
I don't know how to code it all fancy, so two posts:

1. Yankees 96-66
2. Rays 93-69
3. Blue Jays 86-76
4. Red Sox 83-79
5. Orioles 64-98

1. Tigers 87-75
2. Indians 86-76
3. Royals 82-80
4. White Sox 73-89
5. Twins 66-96

1. Rangers 96-66
2. Angels 92-70
3. Athletics 72-90
4. Mariners 68-94
   66. Davo Dozier Posted: March 28, 2012 at 11:04 PM (#4091964)
1. Marlins 92-70
2. Phillies 91-71
3. Braves 84-78
4. Nationals 82-80
5. Mets 69-93

1. Cardinals 94-68
2. Reds 85-75
3. Brewers 84-78
4. Cubs 81-81
5. Pirates 76-86
6. Astros 52-110

1. Dodgers 85-77
2. Diamondbacks 83-79
3. Rockies 80-82
4. Giants 77-85
5. Padres 73-89
   67. Davo Dozier Posted: March 28, 2012 at 11:10 PM (#4091968)
To add on to the posts justifying Marlins love: No one I've seen has mentioned that Logan Morrison gave them all of 0 WAR in 2011 (and missed 40 games). You have to imagine some improvement there (I'm imagining a ton of improvement, but that's just me--I think he's a good breakout candidate).

And a lot of the "love" might be more just skepticism of the front-runners. The Phillies and Braves have a ton of question marks and reasons to be bearish (age, injury, lack of depth, etc). Someone has to pick up those extra wins!
   68. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: March 28, 2012 at 11:18 PM (#4091971)
I predict a lot of people will over-estimate the improvement of the Marlins.


But probably not as much as everyone is over-estimating the improvement of the Reds.

I'll have you know, some of us are capable of doing both.

Honestly, I didn't know anyone ever read anyone else's predictions in these things, let alone expend so much energy refuting them as ol' Sammy has done here.
   69. Gamingboy Posted: March 28, 2012 at 11:33 PM (#4091980)
Okay, time for some more... fun predictions:

Eric Hosmer will win the Home Run Derby, thus declaring his existence to the world at large. During the Derby, a small boy chasing a home run falls into one of the Kauffman Stadium fountains. Thankfully, Brian Wilson is on the scene as a ESPN "analyst" after being snubbed of a roster spot, and is able to use his beard as a flotation device to save the boy.

Mariano Rivera blows a save. NY sports talk remains completely calm, realizing that even the greatest can mess up now and then.

Ichiro, before his first game against Yu Darvish, proclaims (through a translator) that he hopes that it will "Awaken the warrior spirit of my ancestors, so that I may face him like I am a wrestler in his final round with nothing to lose but honor."

Robert Andino sets a new record for lowest career WAR by a opposing player to be booed non-stop by the Fenway Park crowd.

The first words by Ozzie Guillen when the Marlins hit their first home run at the new ballpark will be: "What the #### is up with that statue?!?! That is ###### up! What the #### were they thinking, were they on ####### drugs?!?!"" Only it will be several times more hilarious than that.

Lassus is arrested and tased in Flushing when he rushes the field during a ceremony honoring a certain first-ballot HOF switch-hitting 3B. The Primates, amazed he actually went through with it, post his bail.

Albert Pujols leaves a game in mid-August with a slight strain. Jose Canseco offers his services to the Angels. Pujols is back at first the next day.

C.J. Wilson spends an off-day filming a cameo in J.J. Abrams' second Star Trek movie.

Bobby Valentine and Buck Showalter are revealed to be following kayfabe scripts.

The NL wins the All-Star Game. People start to wonder when the AL will ever win another ASG.

Justin Verlander throws a perfect game and then is seen eating dinner with Kate Upton. Randy Johnson is unavailable for comment.

Joe Mauer hits a pitiful .321 Batting Average.

Bryce Harper debuts during a interleague series against Baltimore. The proximity of Harper to Wieters causes a minor flux in the space time continuum that makes it appear that Harper is playing for Montreal and that Wieters is wearing a mid-90s Chris Hoiles uniform.

Peter Angelos finally decides to sell the Orioles. Cal Ripken plays a role similar to Magic Johnson or Nolan Ryan in getting the team. Hey, we can hope...

   70. McCoy Posted: March 28, 2012 at 11:37 PM (#4091982)
Cal will sure look good in pinstripes.
   71. Roger McDowell spit on me! Posted: March 28, 2012 at 11:53 PM (#4091989)
OK..here it goes:

AL East - Tampa Bay
AL Central - Detroit
AL West - LA Angels
WC - Texas and New York, with the Yankees winning.
AL Champs - Tampa Bay

NL East - Atlanta
NL Central - St Louis
NL West - SF
Wild Cards - Miami and Cincinnati
NL Champs - Miami

The winner of the Gator Alley series - Tampa Bay

AL MVP - Miguel Cabrera
AL Cy Young - Jered Weaver

NL MVP - Jose Reyes
NL Cy Young - Timmeh Lincecum
   72. robinred Posted: March 29, 2012 at 12:07 AM (#4091997)
But probably not as much as everyone is over-estimating the improvement of the Reds.


It's more that I think MIL and STL will be worse. I think the Reds will go about 88-74; I just think that will be enough this time. I think the Brewers will win 85-88 as well.
   73. Jim (jimmuscomp) Posted: March 29, 2012 at 12:18 AM (#4092004)
Bryce Harper debuts during a interleague series against Baltimore. The proximity of Harper to Wieters causes a minor flux in the space time continuum that makes it appear that Harper is playing for Montreal and that Wieters is wearing a mid-90s Chris Hoiles uniform.


Friggin' brilliant.
   74. cardsfanboy Posted: March 29, 2012 at 12:23 AM (#4092006)
NL East Phillies, Braves, Nationals, Marlins, Mets
NL Central Cardinals, Brewers, Pirates, Reds, Cubs, Astros
NL West Giants, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Dodgers, Padres
NL Wildcard Diamondbacks, Brewers

AL East Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles
AL Central Tigers(I think this is the easiest pick out there), White Sox, Indians, Twins, Royals
AL West Angels, Rangers, A's, Mariners
AL wildcard Rangers, Rays

WS champ Cardinals
Al Champ Rays
NL MVP Holliday
NL Cy Young Annibal Sanchez.
AL MVP Pujols
AL Cy Young Sabathia

Comeback player of the year NL Santana, AL Dunn.

   75. Walt Davis Posted: March 29, 2012 at 01:56 AM (#4092019)
But probably not as much as everyone is over-estimating the improvement of the Reds.

I'm not expecting much improvement from the Reds (although I did forget that Madson is out). I'm expecting decline in the Brewers and Cards and non-improvement (or at least nowhere near enough) in the Cubs, Pirates and Astros. Cincy wins a weakened division in my scenario.
   76. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: March 29, 2012 at 07:54 AM (#4092069)
Honestly, I didn't know anyone ever read anyone else's predictions in these things, let alone expend so much energy refuting them as ol' Sammy has done here.


Um...sorry. I'll go back to the raging political thread then, I guess.
   77. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: March 29, 2012 at 07:58 AM (#4092070)
AL East: Boston
AL Central: Detroit
AL West: Los Angeles of Anaheim
AL Wild Card: Rangers over Yankees
ALCS: Los Angeles of Anaheim over Boston
AL CY: Dan Haren
AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez

NL East: Philadelphia
NL Central: St Louis
NL West: Arizona
NL Wild Card: Milwaukee over Atlanta
NLCS: Philadelphia over St Louis
NL CY: Roy Halladay
NL MVP: Justin Upton

WS: Los Angeles of Anaheim over Philadelphia
   78. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: March 29, 2012 at 08:00 AM (#4092071)
I don't see a problem with bringing some data to the prediction thread. Miami only projects around .500 at this point, and Atlanta is 5-10 wins better than them. It's obviously well in the range of things that happen in a baseball season for Miami to beat Atlanta, but it's a reasonably big upset to pick.
   79. bunyon Posted: March 29, 2012 at 08:53 AM (#4092089)
A little late, I guess, but ahead of any North American games.


NL East: Atlanta
NL Central: St. Louis
NL West: San Francisco
NL WC 1: Philadelphia
NL WC 2: Arizona

AL East: Tampa
AL Central: Detroit
AL West: Los Angeles/Anaheim
AL WC 1: Texas
AL WC 2: Boston

NLDS
Philadelphia over St. Louis 3-1
San Francisco over Atlanta 3-2

ALDS
Detroit over Boston 3-0
Tampa over LAA 3-1

NLCS
San Francisco over Philadelphia 4-2

ALCS
Tampa over Detroit 4-3

WS
Tampa over San Francisco 4-1

   80. Rants Mulliniks Posted: March 29, 2012 at 08:55 AM (#4092092)
NL East
X-Phillies 92 70
y-Braves 91 71
Marlins 86 76
Nats 84 78
Mets 66 96

NL Central
X-St L 88 74
y-Reds 87 75
Brewers 82 80
Pirates 71 91
Cubs 67 95
Astros 53 109

NL West
X-D-Backs 87 75
Giants 84 78
Padres 81 81
Rockies 80 82
Dodgers 77 85

AL East
X-NYY 98 64
y-Red Sox 93 68
TB 91 71
Jays 84 78
O's 68 94

AL Central
X-Tigers 97 65
Royals 78 84
Indians 77 85
Twins 71 91
Chisox 69 93

AL West
X-Rangers 98 64
y-Angels 94 68
Mariners 69 93
A's 67 95

AL MVP: M. Cabrera
AL CY: Sabathia
AL ROY: Matt Moore

NL MVP: Votto
NL CY: Strasburg
NL ROY: Teheran
   81. jmurph Posted: March 29, 2012 at 08:55 AM (#4092093)
AL East: NYY
AL Central: Detroit
AL West: The Los Anaheim Angeles of Anageles
AL Wild Card: Boston, Texas

NL East: Philadelphia
NL Central: St Louis
NL West: Arizona
NL Wild Card: Washington, San Francisco

WS: Texas over Arizona
   82. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: March 29, 2012 at 08:57 AM (#4092094)
I don't see a problem with bringing some data to the prediction thread. Miami only projects around .500 at this point, and Atlanta is 5-10 wins better than them. It's obviously well in the range of things that happen in a baseball season for Miami to beat Atlanta, but it's a reasonably big upset to pick.

FWIW, Vegas has them practically even. Miami at 85, Atlanta at 85.5.
   83. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: March 29, 2012 at 08:58 AM (#4092096)
AL East: Tampa
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Rangers
Wild Cards: Yankees, Angels
AL Champ: Rays
MVP: Longoria
CY: Jered Weaver

NL East: Braves
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Dodgers
Wild Cards: Marlins, D'Backs
NL Champ: Brewers
MVP: Upton
CY: Greinke

WS: Rays over Brewers
   84. Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: March 29, 2012 at 09:03 AM (#4092099)
Bobby Valentine and Buck Showalter are revealed to be following kayfabe scripts.


I look forward to Ben Cherington's heel turn (reacquiring Manny at the trade deadline.)

AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Detroit
AL West: LAA
Wild Card: Rangers over Rays

NL East: Miami
NL Central: Milwaukee
NL West: San Francisco
Wild Card: Philly (strong second half surge) over Atlanta

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
NL MVP: Justin Upton

AL CY: Felix Hernandez
NL CY: Josh Johnson

AL ROTY: Mike Trout
NL ROTY: Bryce Harper

NL Comeback: Johan Santana
AL Comeback: Andy Pettitte

World Series: Philly over Rangers

EDIT: Seasonal Events:

- Giancarlo Stanton hits 50+ HR
- David Wright returns to form (300BA, 30/30)
- Jeter *still* manages to hit 300
- Billy Beane reveals that his absentee management of the A's has been because he's secretly been pulling the strings in Boston since '03 ("It was me, Boston! It was ME ALL ALONG!")
   85. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: March 29, 2012 at 09:17 AM (#4092112)
FWIW, Vegas has them practically even. Miami at 85, Atlanta at 85.5.
I'm seeing 85 for Miami, 87 for Atlanta at one site, and 85.5 for Atlanta, 82.5 for Miami at another. 5-10 is beyond what they've got, but Atlanta looks like the Vegas favorite, too.
   86. Davo Dozier Posted: March 29, 2012 at 09:51 AM (#4092139)
You have to remember, in our lifetimes, every time the Marlins have spent a ton of money in an effort to compete, they've succeeded.
   87. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: March 29, 2012 at 09:52 AM (#4092144)
I'm seeing 85 for Miami, 87 for Atlanta at one site, and 85.5 for Atlanta, 82.5 for Miami at another. 5-10 is beyond what they've got, but Atlanta looks like the Vegas favorite, too.


My point is not that it's out of the range of possibilities that Miami beats Atlanta (or Philadelphia.) If everything goes right for them, and most things go wrong for the other two, then that could very well happen. But I'm not sure it's quite rational to say "Hanley will rebound to his 2009 MVPish form" but assume Jason Heyward is meat at the age of 21. I don't think it's reasonable to project a full, healthy year from Jose Reyes any more than it is to project the same for Chipper Jones. I don't think there's any reason to believe Logan Morrison will break out but Martin Prado will wither away to nothingness.

I think the Phillies have the edge on the division, because they have the starters, and the regular season is about the starters. If Hanson and Hudson are healthy from May-September, it's mostly a tossup. Marlins and Nats are 3-5 games back of the Braves, and barring weirdness, the Mets are the Mets.
   88. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: March 29, 2012 at 09:53 AM (#4092145)
I'm seeing 85 for Miami, 87 for Atlanta at one site, and 85.5 for Atlanta, 82.5 for Miami at another. 5-10 is beyond what they've got, but Atlanta looks like the Vegas favorite, too.

Sorry, should have read 86.5 for Atlanta. I'm using the average from about 10 sites. Anyway, the point wasn't that Atlanta isn't the 'favorite', it was that a 1.5 win difference is much closer to a coin-flip, than it is a 'big upset'.
   89. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: March 29, 2012 at 09:55 AM (#4092148)
Yeah, and we'll see how the numbers read when more projections come out, but 85 looks high to me for Miami.
   90. Rants Mulliniks Posted: March 29, 2012 at 10:21 AM (#4092182)
You have to remember, in our lifetimes, every time the Marlins have spent a ton of money in an effort to compete, they've succeeded.


Not unless there's a poster under the age of 15! :-)
   91. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 29, 2012 at 11:41 AM (#4092299)
2013 MLB Draft Order

1. Houston
2. NY Mets
3. Baltimore
4. Minnesota
5. Los Angeles Dodgers
6. Pittsburgh
7. Chicago White Sox
8. Oakland
9. Chicago Cubs
10.Kansas City
11.Seattle
12.Colorado
13.Cleveland
14.San Diego
15.Toronto
16.Washington
17.St. Louis
18.Milwaukee
19.Philadelphia
20.San Francisco
21.Miami
22.Texas
23.Arizona
24.Detroit
25.NY Yankees
26.Cincinnati
27.Boston
28.Tampa Bay
29.LA Angels
30.Atlanta
   92. Guapo Posted: March 29, 2012 at 12:11 PM (#4092335)
AL East: Tampa
AL Central: Detroit
AL West: LA Angels
Wild Cards: NY Yankees, Texas
AL Champ: Detroit

NL East: Atlanta
NL Central: Milwaukee
NL West: San Francisco
Wild Cards: Florida, St. Louis
NL Champ: Milwaukee

WS Champ: Milwaukee
   93. Gamingboy Posted: March 29, 2012 at 01:18 PM (#4092400)
More predictions:

Nyjer Morgan announces he will from now on be known as Ziggy Stardust.

The fences at Target Field mysteriously move in ten feet one night. Wracked by guilt, Joe Mauer admits that Justin Morneau, Danny Valencia, and a drunk-dialing-and-confused Michael Cuddyer forced him to join in.

Jamie Moyer faces Jim Thome. Remembering how things were done in their early days, Thome is allowed to request whether the ball is thrown high or low.

Logan Morrison somehow tweets during an at-bat.

Magic Johnson goes to the booth and sits down with Vin Scully for a inning and a half and they discuss baseball, basketball, LA, Jackie Robinson, the Dream Team, Larry Bird, and the 1960s Tigers. It is one of the most glorious things in the history of sports.


   94. Dr. Vaux Posted: March 29, 2012 at 04:08 PM (#4092490)
AL East: Tampa
AL Central: Cleveland
AL West: Texas
AL WC #1: New York
AL WC#2: Boston

AL pennant winner: Tampa

NL East: Miami
NL Central: Cincinnati
NL West: Colorado
NL WC #1: Atlanta
NL WC#2: Milwaukee

NL pennant winner: Miami

World Series winner: Miami

AL MVP: Adrian Beltre
AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez

NL MVP: Giancarlo Stanton
NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum

Other predictions:

Daniel Bard is effective in the rotation, but the Red Sox move him to the bullpen in July despite having only two other healthy starters.
Michael Pineda has an ERA over 5.00.
Alex Rodriguez hits over 40 home runs.
The Royals contend until September.
The Orioles have at least one month in which they win fewer than 10 games.
The Angels finish ten games behind the Rangers and five games behind the Red Sox.
Albert Pujols hits under .300.

The Phillies struggle to reach .500.
Jason Heyward makes the All-Star team.
Carlos Zambrano makes a solid showing.
The Astros win at least 65 games.
Aroldis Chapman doesn't start a game.
The Dodgers make a big-ticket trade deadline acquisition despite being only fringe contenders.
No NL races are decided before the final week, and each division has three serious contenders.
   95. cardsfanboy Posted: March 29, 2012 at 04:27 PM (#4092503)
I'm not expecting much improvement from the Reds (although I did forget that Madson is out). I'm expecting decline in the Brewers and Cards and non-improvement (or at least nowhere near enough) in the Cubs, Pirates and Astros. Cincy wins a weakened division in my scenario.


I expect improvement from the Cardinals and Pirates, and the Brewers to drop some, and the Reds to basically stand pat. I think the Cardinals have the highest possible variance of those four teams due to potential injury risk. I think the Cardinals could finish anyplace from 1-4, I think the Brewers any place 1-3(only team in the division guaranteed to finish over .500), the Reds any place 2-4 and the Pirates either 3-4.

Of course I think that if the injury bug stays relatively average or better, the Cardinals are the best team in the NL by a good margin.
   96. Dr. Vaux Posted: March 29, 2012 at 04:59 PM (#4092525)
Of course I think that if the injury bug stays relatively average or better, the Cardinals are the best team in the NL by a good margin.


Does that include Chris Carpenter not being out indefinitely with a nerve issue?
   97. cardsfanboy Posted: March 29, 2012 at 05:11 PM (#4092537)
Does that include Chris Carpenter not being out indefinitely with a nerve issue?


Of course. Talent wise, the team is stacked more than any NL team, but most of them are over 30, or have recent history of injuries or both. First half of last season Cardinals were among the teams with the most players on the DL, from the All Star break on, I think they had one player go on the DL. Health of course matters for teams hoping to compete, (all teams of course, but it really doesn't matter if all the Astros or Mariners are healthy for their playoff dreams, and in fact it's arguable that injuries to those type of things could lead to luck in that a young player might be given more than a chance)


   98. 'Spos lost the handle trying to make the transfer Posted: March 30, 2012 at 03:01 PM (#4093135)
National League

East
Philadelphia Phillies 89 Wins Division in tiebreaker
Atlanta Braves 89

Central
St. Louis Cardinals 89
Milwaukee Brewers 88 Loses second wild card in tiebreaker

West
Arizona Diamondbacks 90
Los Angeles Dodgers 88 Wins second wild card in tiebreaker

American League

East
Tampa Bay Rays 91
Boston Red Sox 90 Wins first wild card in tiebreaker
New York Yankees 90 Lose wild card tiebreaker

Central
Detroit Tigers 90

West
Texas Rangers 92
Los Angeles Angels 90 Wins second wild card in tiebreaker


Angels over the Dodgers in 6
   99. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: March 30, 2012 at 03:12 PM (#4093150)
Of course. Talent wise, the team is stacked more than any NL team


You need to show your work here, kid.
   100. JE (Jason Epstein) Posted: April 01, 2012 at 09:07 AM (#4094096)
AL East: Tampa Bay
AL Central: Detroit
AL West: Texas
Wild cards: New York, Los Angeles
Playoff: New York
AL Champ: Detroit
MVP: Evan Longoria
Cy: Felix Hernandez

NL East: Philadelphia
NL Central: St. Louis
NL West: Los Angeles
NL Wild Cards: Atlanta, Cincinnati
Playoff: Atlanta
NL Champ: Philadelphia
MVP: Joey Votto
Cy: Cliff Lee

WS Champ: Detroit in 7
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