I love how people pretend that college stars are "safe bets" in the draft.

I'll admit I wanted him over Hosmer. Hosmer's having a crummy year too, but I like him a lot better going forward.

Does the stadium in Seattle just suck the life out of every hitter? Smoak and Ackley seemed pretty sure bets to hit in MLB; Smoak's .470/.698 home/road OPS split is pretty dramatic, ands Ackley's, while not that dramatic, is pretty big. As to those 2, it looks like it just kills extra base hits(for those 2, which are the subject of the article, they have 3 doubles and 4 HR's at home, and 15 doubles and 12 HR's on the road). Is it fence distance or heavy air?

Jesus is your sav... oh.

Is it fence distance or heavy air?

Ichiro sucking their life force away.

(On the road, Ichiro doesn't get to sleep in his own grave, less powerful.)

What happened to the Ms? Last I looked (a while ago) they were ticking along 2-3 games under 500. Have they lost 5 of 20 or something?

Smoak didn't hit when he was with the Rangers too though. And Texas' park is pretty much the opposite of Seattle's.

Yes, but while a .698 OPS isn't good for a 1B, it isn't epically bad, and 8 HRs on the road would equate to 16 for the season at this mid-point, if home=road. That would be a 30 HR season pace, which at least would show some very promising power for a young 1B.

And Smoak's career line in AAA is just .253/.379/.414 (477 PAs, at ages 22-23). I don't know whether he might have benefited from another couple of years in AAA, or whether he's just a sort of AA½ hitter who was overrated to begin with. It's a shame, because I've seen him have a couple of good games for both the Rangers and the Mariners, and he certainly looks like a fine hitter when he has a good night. Most guys do, though.

.220/.302/.370 in 1200 MLB PAs now
+ he's 25

In 2009 he was 5th in the Texas League in OPS, the guy who was first? Chris Carter...

employing 20/20 hindsight, boy was the TL really weak in 2009

He spent half of 2009 in the PCL, and hit .244/.363/.360, didn't make the top 100... and heading into 2010 BA ranked him 13th...
(Seriously a 1B who was 4th in the TL in OPS- half year, and lower than 100th in teh PCL - half year- gets ranked 13th???

Same basic type hitter as Hermida had been (but not as good), and Hermida had been the same basic type hitter as Nick Johnson (though not as good)

2010: Smoak was 27th in the PCL in OPS...

Smoak was drafted very high and in the minors had superficially impressive numbers... but when you adjust to run environment, not as good as, oh, Jesus Montero (who is not exactly lighting up the MLB this year)...

and now you have his MLB track record...

Sure he has "some" power and he'll take a walk, and if you keep hauling him out there one of these days he'll throw a 120 OPS+ against the wall... but it's really time to look fro a 1B solution

And Smoak's career line in AAA is just .253/.379/.414

and league average was .275/.344/.425, meaning that he was just barely a better than average hitter (about a 107 OPS+)- in AAA, a 100 OPS+ in AAA translates to something like an 80-85 in the MLB, Smoak has put up an 88 in the majors.

by way of contrast Carp (is he hurt?) has put up a .276/.357/.506 line in AAA (OPS+ of 123) and an OPS+ of 112 in the majors

Carp is (based on both MLB and AAA) a better hitter than Smoak by 15-20 points of OPS+ or so, and not much of an OF, and he's only a year older than Smoak, so he would seem to me to be the short term replacement/solution...

but the league medium starting 1B hits 120 or so, if Carp is a 105-115 type of guy he's just stop gap (which is better than trainwreck which is what Smoak is)

So, it turns out that Smoak's sucks. But, yeah, Safeco is sucking the life out of every hitter this year. (See Dave Cameron's article at Fangraphs for details, but both home hitters and road hitters are losing massively to the cold weather and dampening air of Seattle this year.)

The big lesson for M's fans: not only is the offense poor, but the pitching is actually worse, which is well masked by the park.

Sure they can.

Carp has been hurt all year. It turns out that it ain't easy to hit for power when your shoulder isn't right. It's been taped back on, and frankencarp is prepping for his return in the minors right now.

I wanted him over Ike Davis.

I wanted him back in 2005 when the A's drafted him out of high school. He looked like a great young prospect, but far from the first guy to not make the leap.

I hear Alfonso Sor- ... oh forget it...