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Saturday, June 30, 2012

Seidman: Ryan Howard’s Absence Has Killed the Myth

Saving Ryan’s Private WAR: And the mission is to save him.

The Phillies miss Ryan Howard. A lot.

This season has taught us a lot about the Phillies. One lesson is that, despite what WAR may and may not say, a platoon of mediocre first basemen is not equal to Howard. Forget about the strikeouts and the declining slash-lines. The prior notion that a league-average first baseman could produce as much as Howard is simply not true.

...He won’t be 100 percent during the second-half of the season, but 85 percent of Ryan Howard is still probably more valuable than the league-average production the Phils have received from first base.

Those prolonged myths about Howard being expendable because his WAR said so… those can be laid to rest.

He’s not Joey Votto, he’s not Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder or Miguel Cabrera. But he’s a difference-making bat who will give you between a .850 and .930 OPS over the next handful of seasons. Whether that’s worth $125 million, let’s debate it for the 767th time… another time.

Hopefully the first 78 games of the 2012 season explained why we’ve been foolish to take Ryan Howard for granted.

Repoz Posted: June 30, 2012 at 08:42 AM | 15 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: phillies, sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: June 30, 2012 at 09:36 AM (#4170000)
This is silly. The way to lose weight is not by standing next to a fat person, and the way to feel better about the enormous amount of money coming to a declining Ryan Howard is not to have him stand next to Ty Wigginton.
   2. Misirlou is bad, he's nationwide Posted: June 30, 2012 at 09:40 AM (#4170001)
Strawman alert. The writer is assuming facts not in evidence. Howard's replacements, mostly Wiggington and Mayberry, are far from league average. In the aggregate, Phillies firstbaseman are hitting .258/.313/.413, an OPS+ of ~95. Howard's worst year was .253/.346/.488, OPS+ 126.
   3. Howie Menckel Posted: June 30, 2012 at 09:40 AM (#4170003)

The subhed is "more than a blog."

what else is it?
   4. G.W.O. Posted: June 30, 2012 at 09:44 AM (#4170006)
I think its safe to say that the place to look for the biggest difference between the 2011 Phillies and the 2012 Phillies is not in the "Runs Scored" column, but the one right next to it.

The 2012 edition are scoring *more* runs per game than the 2011 equivalent, but they're losing more often. That's a real head-scratcher.
   5. JE (Jason Epstein) Posted: June 30, 2012 at 09:48 AM (#4170007)
The subhed is "more than a blog."

The Seidman brothers appear to be busy bees. Aren't they co-proprietors for Brotherly Glove, another Phillies-centric blog, and contribute to Fangraphs?
   6. Shock Posted: June 30, 2012 at 09:51 AM (#4170008)
Even when injured Howard steals credit from Utley.
   7. RMc and His Roster of Rubbish Posted: June 30, 2012 at 09:55 AM (#4170010)
The subhed is "more than a blog."

what else is it?


It's a floor wax, you cow!!
   8. Nasty Nate Posted: June 30, 2012 at 11:57 AM (#4170040)
Even when injured Howard steals credit from Utley.


Amen.

I guess 7 world series homers doesn't buy the respect it used to.
   9. baudib Posted: June 30, 2012 at 02:22 PM (#4170081)
If the Phillies wanted to be aggressive and cold-blooded and, you know, keep winning, they could have made themselves a very inviting landing spot for Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder this past off-season.
   10. Bob Meta-Meusel Posted: June 30, 2012 at 02:48 PM (#4170092)
Cliff Lee & Roy Halladay combined: 4 Wins, 9 Losses, and an ERA+ just a hair under 100 (and Halladay on the DL). The Phillies are never going to win that way, regardless of what Howard and Utley do, and whether they're playing or not.
   11. boteman Posted: June 30, 2012 at 03:53 PM (#4170126)
Come on, you know that the real problem with the Phillies has already been uttered: aint nobody skeered of 'em.
   12. baudib Posted: June 30, 2012 at 03:54 PM (#4170127)
They need Jim Rice?
   13. Graham Posted: June 30, 2012 at 04:08 PM (#4170135)
The problem is not that Ryan Howard isn't a good player. He is a good player, but he's treated and paid like a great player. He is not a great player.
   14. Bob Evans Posted: June 30, 2012 at 10:30 PM (#4170290)
The subhed is "more than a blog."

what else is it?


It's a weblog.
   15. I Am Not a Number Posted: July 01, 2012 at 09:35 AM (#4170437)
Strawman alert.

Indeed. By the "analysis editor" no less.

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