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Thursday, June 04, 2009

SF Gate: Bruce Jenkins’ 3-Dot Lounge

190+ pitch outings by Mike Krukoww-oww!

Mike Krukow had some scathing, spot-on comments about pitch counts yesterday on the Gary Radnich show. Krukow plays it close to the vest during telecasts, honoring the game’s trend toward caution and protecting young arms, but he revealed his true feelings with Radnich, ridiculing the notion of effective pitchers being replaced after 100-odd pitches and calling it “the stupidest thing I’ve ever seen.”

...As Krukow told Radnich, the way you become a winning pitcher is by finishing a game, working your way through a batting order three or four times. Anyone can win the first couple of matchups, but once you’ve figured out how to out-perform that guy every time, especially when it counts, you’re a better pitcher and a better man. Krukow said he routinely had 150-pitch games during his career, clearing 190 a couple of times in college, and that if you decide to stick with a pitcher who has it all going, after 110-120 pitches, “It’s not going to hurt him, OK?” said Krukow. “It’s just not.”

The worst of it is, Hinch probably won’t even think twice about his decision. He and a thousand other managers will take the paranoia route every time. That’s how you lose games, respect and any chance of making an impression in this division.

Repoz Posted: June 04, 2009 at 01:30 PM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: arizona, giants, sabermetrics

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   1. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: June 04, 2009 at 02:15 PM (#3206162)
I have an idea. We stretch out all the Giants pitchers to throw 130+ pitches per start, and if a pitcher gets hurt, Krukow and Jenkins can pay the pitchers' salaries out of their own pockets.

Otherwise, they can shut the hell up.
   2. Flynn Posted: June 04, 2009 at 02:25 PM (#3206178)
I want to hear this interview. Krukow has a thrice-weekly morning spot and he's usually pretty restrained and sensible.
   3. Hang down your head, Tom Foley Posted: June 04, 2009 at 02:28 PM (#3206186)
I hate it when umpires limit pitchers to three outs in an inning. If you make him get six or seven outs, it’s not going to hurt him, OK? It’s just not.

That's why I thank god Scott Podsednik is my team's centerfielder.
   4. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: June 04, 2009 at 02:31 PM (#3206188)
Podsednik is the left fielder at the moment.

Somehow he's got everyone convinced that a .286/.331/.366 line is really good, though, so I'm sure he'll be in center field if and when Quentin comes back.
   5. Ron Johnson Posted: June 04, 2009 at 02:43 PM (#3206202)
Wonder if Krukow is aware that he was a substantially worse pitcher late in the game than he was early.
   6. GregQ Posted: June 04, 2009 at 02:56 PM (#3206216)
Jenkins has been on a pitch count crusade for some time but it seems as if he is bringing it up more and more often. I think last month it was a game that Koufax and a few months before it was someone else.
   7. zack Posted: June 04, 2009 at 03:09 PM (#3206233)
Date Pitches
5/28 97
5/29 85
5/31 164
5/31 121 (four hours later!)
6/1 125
6/2 119

And that's by a girl. What is wrong with players these days, bah! Humbug!
   8. jwb Posted: June 04, 2009 at 03:24 PM (#3206255)
Wonder if Krukow is aware that he was a substantially worse pitcher late in the game than he was early.
He's actually right about this.

PA  tOPS+
1    90
2    94
3
+  119 

Innings show the same pattern. Only 28 games with pitch counts, so nothing to see there.
   9. Petuniaviles Posted: June 04, 2009 at 03:28 PM (#3206263)
I want to hear this interview.

KNBR's pretty good about putting stuff up on their website.

http://www.knbr.com/common/global_audio/201/8275.mp3
   10. Ron Johnson Posted: June 04, 2009 at 06:15 PM (#3206602)
#8 In this case the lower the tOPS+ the better he pitched. Look at the raw numbers.

PA
1 .246/.314/.361 .675
2 .255/.310/.384 .694
3 .284/.348/.435 .783

Same for by innings.

Also worth noting. Seems like he was worked hard only one year. And his arm seems to have fallen off after that.

And in his 20 win season he had an ERA of 6.00 from the 7th inning on (though that looks like a clustering issue. He seems to have given up a lot more runs than you'd expect from raw stats. Bullpen sabotage?)

All in all he looks like an odd choice of a guy to bring up.
   11. Walt Davis Posted: June 04, 2009 at 09:06 PM (#3206874)
That’s how you lose games, respect and any chance of making an impression in this division.

What in the world does this mean? OK, I get the first part and am not interested in debating that. But Hinch loses respect for pulling pitchers early -- when every manager is doing it? I'm not sure I know what making an impression in this division means.

I don't know how many 150 pitch starts Krukow had. I do know that he had only 3 seasons with over 200 IP, only one of those over 210. He pitched in a 5-man rotation his entire career. He averaged 6.1 innings per start. Basically, those are Jeff Suppan numbers.

In his defense, he did have three seasons with a lot of complete games by today's standards -- 6, 7 and 10.
   12. Flynn Posted: June 04, 2009 at 09:26 PM (#3206908)
Unsurprisingly Krukow's interview was considerably more nuanced.

He started off by saying he thought the third and fourth times through the batting order was what makes a pitcher and that while he disagrees he does understand there is so much money in these young arms, there's a premium on pitching and it's an investment.

He also said that his biggest issue was that a raw number doesn't mean anything and that it's better to rely on a pitcher's stuff as a reference to whether he is being tired. He said that a pitcher with bad mechanics can hurt their arm in 30 pitches while a pitcher with good mechanics could throw up to 150 and be fine.

He also said the most he ever threw was around 150.

I don't agree with everything he says but it was much more well thought out than I'm a manly man these kids are wussies pitch counts bad, which is the axe Jenkins is grinding while using a popular well respected local analyst as cover.
   13. RMc is the loyal supporter of the MLB event Posted: June 05, 2009 at 01:23 PM (#3207404)
Once again:
1) Pitching is hard; guys get hurt.
2) Major league pitchers are million-dollar investments.
3) When million-dollar investments go down the toilet, there's hell to pay.
4) "Don't blame me, boss, he was within his pitch count!"
   14. Ron Johnson Posted: June 05, 2009 at 02:41 PM (#3207499)
#13, agree. What's more, hard and fast rules are enforced because a manager's interests are less than perfectly aligned with those of the franchise.

Billy Martin's career offers an interesting look into the dilema. He was so effective in the short term, but look at what happened to his front-line starters. The only one I can think of who had any substantial value (after the initial success under Martin. Don't get me wrong, an awful lot of pitchers had great years under him) after Martin was Jim Kaat. (and you can argue Kaat. A rough 3 years after Martin, followed by two of his best years when he was worked very hard. Followed by a lengthy decline phase)

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