Dreamer’s Holiday: Fixing the Giants…the Jenkins way.
Looking ahead to the Giants’ offseason and how they can resume supremacy in the NL West:
—The major free-agent targets - Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Jose Reyes - are out of reach. Take an early run at Carlos Beltran, assuring him the lineup will strengthen, and if he has his doubts, forget it; he won’t be worth signing. See if Jimmy Rollins really wants to leave Philadelphia (he’d be perfect as the leadoff hitter and shortstop). And go strong on the Twins’ Michael Cuddyer, a proven leader and solid hitter who can play almost anywhere.
—Mark DeRosa’s $5.5 million salary is coming off the books; see if he’d stay for less. The stretch drive showed he has something left, and he’s invaluable as a bench guy with character.
—The obscenely rich Yankees and Red Sox have terrible starting rotations that will let them down in October (if the Sox even get there). The Braves’ staff is broken-down and overworked. Never forget what Bruce Bochy, Ron Wotus, Dave Righetti and bullpen coach Mark Gardner mean to the Giants in terms of handling and protecting pitchers. There wasn’t a single pitch-count issue all year, and the Giants enter 2012 with a rock-solid rotation core of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong. It’s the envy of all of baseball, and the rewards will be sweet.
Repoz
Posted: September 28, 2011 at 08:56 AM |
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1. Jim WisinskiWell, not ALL of baseball.
If you include age and salary in the analysis, would you rather have the Phillies' top four or the Giants'? I'm not sure it's clear cut.
-- The major free-agent targets - Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Jose Reyes - are out of reach. Take an early run at Carlos Beltran, assuring him the lineup will strengthen, and if he has his doubts, forget it; he won't be worth signing. See if Jimmy Rollins really wants to leave Philadelphia (he'd be perfect as the leadoff hitter and shortstop). And go strong on the Twins' Michael Cuddyer, a proven leader and solid hitter who can play almost anywhere.
Why the hell should top free agents be out of the Giants' reach? I can't see the Yanks or Red Sox going after Fielder and Jose Reyes has enough injury baggage that he's not going to get 2.7 zillion dollars. Jimmy Rollins to hit lead off? Mike Cuddyer? Cuddyer, Jenkins? Did you learn nothing from the Mark DeRosa experience. These are your answers? To over pay for aging players whose contracts you will instantly regret?
Or the Rays Shields, Price, Hellickson, and Moore
Yeah, those were the guys I was talking about. Plus there's still plenty of hope for Wade Davis despite the poor season and Alex Cobb was a good prospect who acquitted himself well enough in the majors before a weird blockage around a rib ended his season.
/shrug
He's looked good.
Or the A's Gonzalez, McCarthy, Cahill, and Anderson/Harden/Braden.
You do realize who the GM is in SF, don't you? This is kind of his thing.
Because the Gints payroll was 118M this season, and they're going to have to spend about that much next year on existing obligation and bringing back their arbitration eligibles (which still leaves them several roster spots short of a full team).
Also because part of the reason for firing Neukum was spending too much of the team's new revenue.
Giants:
Lincecum, age 27, 2011 salary $14M; 2012 Arb3; 2011 stats-- 130 ERA+, 220 strikeouts in 217 IP
Cain, age 26, 2011 salary $7.33M; 2012 $15.33M; 2011 stats-- 123 ERA+, 117 strikeouts in 221 IP
Bumgarner, age 21, 2011 salary $0.45M; 2012 pre-arb; 2011 stats 111 ERA+, 191 strikeouts in 204 IP
Vogelsong, age 33, 2011 salary ? (not on Cot's); 2012 arb3; 2011 stats 132 ERA+, 139 strikeouts in 179 IP
Rays:
Shields, age 29, 2011 salary $4.25M; 2012 $7M; 2011 stats-- 132 ERA+, 225 strikeouts in 249 IP
Price, age 25, 2011 salary $2.183M, 2012 $2.43M; 2011 stats--111 ERA+, 215 strikeouts in 220 IP
Hellickson, age 24, 2011 salary $0.418M, 2012 pre-arb; 2011 stats-- 126 ERA+, 117 strikeouts in 189 IP
Moore, age 22, has not done anything in MLB yet! (okay, 134 ERA+ in 9 innings pitched)
So, I don't know, I'm looking at Shields being older than Lincecum but making less money (partly because he hasn't won two Cy Young awards like Timmy has), Price a year younger than Cain, much cheaper but also probably not as good, ERA+ notably worse though he does have more strikeouts, Hellickson and Bumgarner both really good, really cheap and pre arb, but Hellickson is THREE years older which seems huge to me for pitchers at this stage of their careers, and then Vogelsong and Moore both basically free, but both unproven--is Vogelsong for real? Or will he turn back into a pumpkin next season? Will Moore live up to the hype or not? He hasn't done anything at the MLB level yet.
Anyway, I would rather have the Giants' rotation for next season for sure, and probably for the next 2-3 seasons, but for the Rays they have a very limiting payroll situation so their rotation probably suits their organizational needs better. But saying the Rays have a better 4 by including a pitcher who has 9 IP in MLB seems a bit precipitous.
As for the A's, come on, we all know that Cahill and Gonzalez will be traded for packages of B prospects as part of the 2012 rebuilding plan.
Vogelsong had his moments in Pittsburgh, but could never put together the kind of consistency he needed to succeed.
His success this year came out of nowhere... He wasn't that good in Japan, he wasn't that good in the minors the last two years, he wasn't good before he went to Japan.
The clearest indicator is that his walk rate went from 3.8 - 4.5 down to 3.1 per nine. That's got to shave about a run off of your ERA. Of course, he used to be at around a 5.00 ERA true talent guy (at best), which FIP sees by giving him a 3.85 FIP ERA.
So partly he found his control at age 33 and partly he got really freaking lucky. I don't see how anyone could expect Vogelsong to be this good again next year...
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