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Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Shane Baz is the player to be named later in the Chris Archer deal | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

This was a very good trade for the Rays.

Still, the Meadows-Glasnow-Baz price tag is significant, as will be the criticism general manager Neal Huntington takes in some circles for agreeing to it — an ironic twist, given the heat he previously was under for failing to materially improve the roster.

Considerable upside aside, Baz — and Meadows and Glasnow, for that matter — is far from a sure thing. If they all reach their peaks as Archer fails to reach his, it’ll be looked back upon as a disaster. If they don’t, and if Archer returns to something approaching his 2015 self, it won’t.

Jim Furtado Posted: August 15, 2018 at 09:14 AM | 35 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: pirates, rays, shane baz

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   1. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 15, 2018 at 09:27 AM (#5727060)
Fleeced.
   2. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: August 15, 2018 at 09:32 AM (#5727062)
Ouch.

That's a hella haul indeed.

   3. Spahn Insane Posted: August 15, 2018 at 09:52 AM (#5727078)
And they dumped Gerrit Cole less than a year ago.
   4. Rally Posted: August 15, 2018 at 10:23 AM (#5727093)
If they all reach their peaks as Archer fails to reach his, it’ll be looked back upon as a disaster.


Highly unlikely that all reach their peak, but if only 1 of the 3 does that still looks bad. 6 cheap years of a good player vs. 3 1/3 of Archer.
   5. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: August 15, 2018 at 10:41 AM (#5727105)
Archer has been involved in some pretty interesting trades...

The Cubs originally got him for the last decent half-season of Mark DeRosa... then, of course, he headlined (though IIRC - lots of analysts thought Hak-Ju Lee was the real centerpiece of it) the Garza trade... now he goes to Pittsburgh for Meadows/Glasnow/Baz.

He's probably already part of what we might call the Will Myers All-Stars -- guys that have been traded multiple times in very interesting deals (Myers, of course, with Shields/Davis and then the big 3-way with Turner, Ross, and others).

Bobby Bonds is probably another one - various deals involving him included Murcer, Washington, John Denny, Richard Toyota, errr Dotson, Downing, and a few others.

For all his well-traveled-ness - It was really only the first two deals (with Cedeno for Bell/Hampton, then part of the Beltran trade) that ended up mattering i/r/t Octavio Dotel. I suppose the Rasmus deal was 'interesting'.

Sheffield's been a key part of two trades that involved HoFers - Hoffman and Piazza, plus some spare parts in Bonilla and Johnson.

Dave Kingman, for all his travels and expertise in wearing out his welcome, has a decidedly uninteresting trademate consortium.

   6. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: August 15, 2018 at 11:03 AM (#5727114)
dammit.

This post placed here because the stupid Gonfalon subnode has really annoying problems with logins
   7. McCoy Posted: August 15, 2018 at 11:11 AM (#5727119)
I believed I was bummed about Archer going in that trade and wasn't exactly hot for Garza. I remember following Archer's career afterwards because of that trade and even got to see him pitch at least once possibly more. Of course it took me a long time to realize that he wasn't white. Occasionally I should get my head out of the spreadsheets.
   8. mathesond Posted: August 15, 2018 at 11:28 AM (#5727142)
#6 was shocked by his own post?
   9. Rennie's Tenet Posted: August 15, 2018 at 01:02 PM (#5727210)
This and the Kela trade (still a PTBNL owing) should raise some tough questions for Pirate management. The players they've given up are pretty high-profile, so either they've given up an awful lot or being a Pirate prospect just doesn't mean much. The current management team is very close to its 11th anniversary, and the only players they signed as amateurs and who have been real impact players for the team are Cole and a couple years of Pedro Alvarez.


   10. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: August 15, 2018 at 01:22 PM (#5727226)
What's a "real impact player"? They drafted Jordy Mercer in the 3rd round and he's been the starting shortstop for 5 years. They signed Gregory Polanco for $150,000 and he's been the starting RF for 4 years. They aren't All-Stars I guess. And Taillon of course.

It is a bit disturbing that after Cole and Taillon, the only starting pitchers they've drafted and then brought to the majors are the likes of Chad Kuhl, Brandon Cumpton and the aforementioned Tyler Glasnow.
   11. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: August 15, 2018 at 03:05 PM (#5727332)
I mean... the guys Pittsburgh got for Cole are not as good as the guys they gave up to get Archer, and Archer is not as good as Cole. Pretty ironclad indictment, no?
   12. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: August 15, 2018 at 03:17 PM (#5727344)
Archer is locked into a cheap contract whereas Cole might make tons of money in arbitration soon. Does that change it any?
   13. Spahn Insane Posted: August 15, 2018 at 03:20 PM (#5727347)
"Any"? Sure. Enough to make this sequence of moves a win for the Pirates overall? Not to me it's not.
   14. PreservedFish Posted: August 15, 2018 at 03:24 PM (#5727349)
Cole has exploded this year, but he and Archer were not dissimilar at the times of their trades.
   15. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: August 15, 2018 at 03:35 PM (#5727360)
I'll admit I don't know their respective service time/contractual situations.

Factor in that they played 108 real games in the interim. Cole has started 24 games for Houston, as one of the best pitchers in the game. Bucs have gotten 13 starts of above-average performance out of Musgrove and 40+ frankly quite bad IP from Feliz. Colin Moran has been almost exactly replacement level.

Play the old 'sum the WAR' game and you get 1.8 WAR for Musgrove, -0.6 for Feliz and 0.1 for Moran; that's 1.3 WAR vs 3.8 for Cole himself. 2.5 WAR difference over exactly 2/3 of a season, for a team that stands (today) 5 games out of the playoffs.
   16. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 15, 2018 at 03:35 PM (#5727361)
Alvarez has never been a "real impact player", his career high was 0.5 WAR.

(I wanted to use strikethrough on that but couldn't determine the correct syntax)

EDIT: Alvarez had 5.6 WAR with Pitt, including 2.6 and 3.3 in back to back years. So "a couple years of Alvarez" is absolutely correct.

I wouldn't say they're real impact players, but Mercer (7.6 WAR) and Polanco (5.2) are solid starters.

   17. Spahn Insane Posted: August 15, 2018 at 03:37 PM (#5727363)
Cole has exploded this year, but he and Archer were not dissimilar at the times of their trades.

Cole's still been better and is younger (your double negative's doing some heavy lifting), but the real problem is they under-demanded from the Astros, and overpaid to the Rays. The Astros were seeking to defend a world championship but had some questions in the rotation, and they have a stocked farm system. I'd have thought the Bucs could've held out for a better package from them for Cole.

Also, speaking of contenders with rotation question marks and prospects to spare: weren't the Yankees also in on Cole? If so, I'd have thought they and the Astros would've triggered a minor bidding war for Cole's services.
   18. Spahn Insane Posted: August 15, 2018 at 03:39 PM (#5727364)
Alvarez has never been a "real impact player"

Malarkey. You ever see a baseball hit and clank off his glove? That's some impact for your ass, right there.

(I snark, of course, and you're right. Apart from being a low-OBP platoon hitter, Alvarez is probably the worst defensive 1B I've ever seen.)

EDIT: OK, guess the WAR numbers were wrong, but I'd still agree Alvarez has never been "real impact."
   19. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 15, 2018 at 03:56 PM (#5727383)
Spahn, sorry to mislead you.

11 years of this administration, and their position player highlights are Pedro Alvarez, Jordy Mercer, and Gregory Polanco.

Not good.

   20. BDC Posted: August 15, 2018 at 03:58 PM (#5727385)
Baz is the player to be named later


And they will need to supply the rest of the letters for his name themselves.
   21. Russ Posted: August 15, 2018 at 04:03 PM (#5727390)
I just can’t get that upset about losing a 19 year old pitcher. His minor league numbers are fine but not extraordinary. There is a 50/50 chance that Archer has his last start in the MLB after Baz has his (if he gets one). I am still happy with the trade.
   22. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: August 15, 2018 at 04:04 PM (#5727392)
11 years of this administration, and their position player highlights are Pedro Alvarez, Jordy Mercer, and Gregory Polanco.
What about Marte? He's at least had some impact years. I see he was signed on Jan. 4, 2007 (my 30th birthday...sigh...). Was that just before this admin?
   23. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 15, 2018 at 04:06 PM (#5727395)
Huntington was hired 9/25/2007.
   24. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: August 15, 2018 at 04:17 PM (#5727402)
Let's just look at the lineup.

C Francisco Cervelli - traded for Justin Wilson in 2014, then re-signed before he could reach free agency. Good trade
1B Josh Bell - drafted by Pirates in 2011
2B/utility Josh Harrison - traded for Tom Gorzelanny in 2009. Good trade
2B/utility Adam Frazier - drafted by Pirates in 2013
SS Jordy Mercer - drafted by Pirates in 2008
3B Colin Moran - traded for Gerrit Cole
LF Corey Dickerson - acquired from the Rays in 2018 in exchange for nothing, following his 2017 All-Star nod. Good trade. Why did the Rays do this again?
CF Starling Marte - signed by Pirates in 2007 (previous regime)
RF Gregory Polanco - signed by Pirates in 2009

SP Jameson Taillon - drafted by Pirates in 2010
SP Chris Archer
SP Ivan Nova - free agent
SP Trevor Williams - acquired from the Marlins in 2015 in exchange for nothing, as compensation for minor league pitching coordinator Jim Benedict breaking his contract to join the Marlins. Good trade
SP Chad Kuhl - drafted by Pirates in 2013
"SP" Nick Kingham - drafted by Pirates in 2010

Drafting and trading look all right.

What doesn't look all right is a total lack of international signings contributing anything besides Polanco and the occasional reliever. This despite the Pirates taking pride in scouting every country on earth and bringing people from Lithuania and South Africa to the majors. Maybe develop some players from Latin America first, maybe focus on that a little more.
   25. PreservedFish Posted: August 15, 2018 at 04:27 PM (#5727411)
####, I'd be pretty happy keeping Huntington. So he's done a few dumb things? The Pirates were an absolute disaster before he came aboard. No reason to believe some hotshot AGM on the Indians or Cubs is any better than him.
   26. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: August 15, 2018 at 04:30 PM (#5727415)
SP Trevor Williams - acquired from the Marlins in 2015 in exchange for nothing, as compensation for minor league pitching coordinator Jim Benedict breaking his contract to join the Marlins.
Man, how would that feel?

"Trevor, you've been traded to Pittsburgh."

"Hm. For whom? [In my hypotheticals, minor-league baseball players use 'whom.'] Part of a deal for a veteran? Prospect at a position of organizational need? [Likewise.]"

"Well..."
   27. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: August 15, 2018 at 04:39 PM (#5727424)
I mean he was traded for a low-level minor leaguer, they had to trade him for SOMETHING apparently.
   28. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: August 15, 2018 at 04:46 PM (#5727434)
Fundamentally, I think the problem here is that it's REALLY hard for an organization/GM to just come out and say that he made a bad call and didn't actually expect to contend.

I.e., I don't think the Pirates expected Dickerson to be as good as he's been and I also don't think they expected the bullpen to be as good as it's been... and they certainly didn't expect the team to go on a tear and move itself into content at the precisely the moment when I suspect Huntington thought he'd be seeing what he could get for some of the spare parts he nabbed (and nabbed as any good GM entering rebuild mode would do).

If you gave him a crystal ball and some truth serum, I have to think he'd tell you "No ####... had I known then what I know now - I'd have just kept Cole, maybe still make the Archer trade, and probably been in on Moustakas or Frazier once they hit bargain price levels".

I mean, I don't like this trade from the Pirates' perspective at all (and that's only somewhat because they're a divisional foe :-) - but hey... even good GMs make bad calls.

Ian Stewart and DJ Lemaheiu say hello from Thed's ledger...
   29. Rally Posted: August 15, 2018 at 04:49 PM (#5727438)
Archer is locked into a cheap contract whereas Cole might make tons of money in arbitration soon. Does that change it any?


It should, Archer is signed for 3 more years after this one, while Cole will be a free agent at the end of 2019.
   30. Count Vorror Rairol Mencoon (CoB) Posted: August 15, 2018 at 04:52 PM (#5727439)

Also, speaking of contenders with rotation question marks and prospects to spare: weren't the Yankees also in on Cole? If so, I'd have thought they and the Astros would've triggered a minor bidding war for Cole's services.


From what I've read it came down to the fact that the Yankees wouldn't give up Andujar ... Cole has been damn good, but that's probably a non-trade the Yankees are okay with.
   31. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: August 15, 2018 at 05:52 PM (#5727472)
Is it though? Isn't the Yankees rotation a bit of a mess right now?
   32. Count Vorror Rairol Mencoon (CoB) Posted: August 15, 2018 at 06:15 PM (#5727481)
Is it though? Isn't the Yankees rotation a bit of a mess right now?


Heh, that's a bit of an understatement ... it's pretty much a tire fire at the moment, at least it feels that way (although Happ has been a pleasant surprise).

But the difference between having Anjudar (+ Drury) or Cole isn't coming close to closing the gap between the Yankees and Red Sox (regular season) ((or the Astros and very likely the post-season too) this year ...
   33. Rennie's Tenet Posted: August 15, 2018 at 09:09 PM (#5727563)
they certainly didn't expect the team to go on a tear and move itself into content at the precisely the moment when I suspect Huntington thought he'd be seeing what he could get for some of the spare parts he nabbed


They did the same thing in 2017, went 12-2 in July to get close in a weak division.

   34. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: August 16, 2018 at 05:00 PM (#5728264)
From what I've read it came down to the fact that the Yankees wouldn't give up Andujar ...


The Yankees put six or seven guys out of bounds - it was ridiculous. IIRC, the list was Torres, Andujar, Sheffield, Florial, and a couple others I can't remember. They also said that they'd give up Frazier or Adams in the deal, but not both.

Their last-and-best offer was reportedly Frazier, Nick Solak, and a relatively insignificant third piece.
   35. Sunday silence Posted: August 16, 2018 at 09:20 PM (#5728499)
Is it possible that PIT and TB have some sort of working arrangement to continue work deals beneficial to both sides? THe Dickerson deal was a good one for PIT; did he have to clear waivers or something or was PIT specifically the only team that was in on that?

I mean its not unreasonable to suppose that since both of these teams are sort of in the same boat they should work together to help each other out.

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