How likely is it that the 120 OPS+ last year is his new established level? If it's not, is a 105 OPS+ with average defense in CF (used to be very good but -9 and -3 the last two years) and good baserunning worth $10 million a year? Maybe it is; center fielders don't grow on trees.

Based on Pagan's recent performance as measured by Fangraphs and B-Ref, this isn't just a fair contract, it's a bargain. Dumber-than-Marcel for Pagan:

+6 Bat + 5 Run + 19 Rep + 1 Pos - 0 Def = +31 RAR

It may be that salaries aren't exploding as much this offseason as I'd expected, but if we expect a somewhat inflated rate of 5.5M per win, Pagan would project to a contract around 3/45 or 4/55.

As a note, Pagan's projected value has nothing to do with his defensive statistics. He rates as just an averageish CF. His value is that (1) Angel Pagan is an above average major league hitter and (2) Angel Pagan is a pretty great baserunner. Even if you discount the baserunning numbers, 4/40 is more than fair.

I don't recall a lot of SABR crying when the Mets gave him up, but I'll be damned if I can remember why not.

Pagan was traded following a 1 WAR year, and the Mets received what seemed like decent value in return - Ramirez was unexpectedly awful last year. Torres more predictably so.

[3] Two different Met GMs gave up Pagan. Idiots.

June 2, 1999: Drafted by the New York Mets in the 4th round of the 1999 amateur draft. Player signed June 1, 2000.

January 25, 2006: Purchased by the Chicago Cubs from the New York Mets.

January 5, 2008: Traded by the Chicago Cubs to the New York Mets for Corey Coles(minors) and Ryan Meyers (minors).

December 7, 2011: Traded by the New York Mets to the San Francisco Giants for Ramon Ramirez and Andres Torres

There was a point last (end of July?) year where Pagan and Torres were close in terms of OPS+, mainly because so much of Torres' OPS came from his OB%.

When Pagan is playing poorly, as he did in 2011, he looks creepy and insane.

This season he looked like a porn actor. He hit a little better though.

Pagan's taco steal will forever be part of the 2012 highlight montage.

A surprising bargain. I mean this is less than Rowand or GMj and not much more (and one year less) than Pierre got ages ago.

Two different Met GMs gave up Pagan. Idiots.

To be fair to Minaya, he did re-acquire Pagan after the latter spent two relatively poor seasons with the Cubs. Pagan was a guy that wasn't really ready to help on a contending team at the time and he was probably a Rule V guy.

Pagan's a guy with good tools that took a little while to develop.

he was probably a Rule V guy.

He wasn't a Rule V guy.

He wasn't a Rule V guy.

I was just guessing that he was by when he signed. Either way, he wasn't a guy that was ready to help the 2006 Mets.

I like Pagan, when he's right, he's a poor man's Carlos Beltran. Very well-rounded player.

Angel Pagan is a pretty great baserunner.

WHAT. DID. I. JUST. READ.

I don't recall a lot of SABR crying when the Mets gave him up, but I'll be damned if I can remember why not.

At the time, Torres for Pagan seemed to me like trading someone for himself: a good 4th OF/marginal starting OF who had his career year in '10, was unimpressive in '11, and would go on to be somewhere in between but closer to '11. Given that, I figured the deal made sense for the Mets because they had no one in the system to inherit CF and Torres had an extra year on the contract, plus maybe Ramirez would be worth something. Ah well.

@14--my problem with acquiring Torres was he had just had a very poor year at an age when very poor years often presage baseball death.

Pagan, on the other hand, was four years younger, and was better when both were good. The Mets were also selling low with him. Easy to say now, but a few years ago, after the 2008 season, I had the sense that Pagan was the kind of guy who might be amenable to an oddball contract, of the kind you never see--something like 5/7.