There is some statistical fluke in Jeter’s batting line. From 2007 through 2011, as his power faded, Jeter hit home runs on about 10 percent of his fly balls. This year, he’s doubled that figure to 20 percent. Since that is by far a career high, and a number incongruent with everything we know about him as a player, we can surmise that the 12 homers—and the bounce they give to his average and slugging—are less the product of skill than good fortune.

PED, QED.

can we simply cut and paste 300 comments from multiple other Jeter threads, and just call this one "done"? Please?

Years ago I thought arguing Pete Rose was bad and there would never be a more controverisal great figure. I never envisioned Bonds and Jeter. Do we have any candidates coming up who might match this level of ubergreat/noheisn't?

How many other ways can I possibly derail the thread?
* Todd Akin started out good but went too far
* Tim Tebow will lead his new team to victories just by being on the bench to encourage others
* Let's all block a planned parenthod clinic by eating Chik Fil A ssandwiches on their sidewalk
* Romney hates all poor and minorities, but Obama hates America

This year, he’s doubled that figure to 20 percent

Gotta be the Bayless!

PED, QED.

M-O-U-S-E.

He's 4th in the AL in Outs as well, and only 5 behind teammate Ichiro for 3rd!

Didn't Jimmy Rollins lead the NL in outs in his MVP year?

can we simply cut and paste 300 comments from multiple other Jeter threads, and just call this one "done"? Please?

I for one, admire TomH's bravery.

Vaya con dios!

Rollins did lead the NL in outs in 2007, and is in the lead for his 5th Outs title this season.

can we simply cut and paste 300 comments from multiple other Jeter threads, and just call this one "done"? Please?

I'll agree to post no numbers here. But I do want to address something from one of the recent threads that I didn't get around to doing there: Hate. The idea that criticism is because people like me hate Derek Jeter.

Nothing could be further from the truth. Yes, I think he's been a below average defender at short pretty much his whole career, but that's just saying what I think is obvious. I love Derek Jeter. I enjoy watching him play baseball. Unless he's going against one of the teams I have a strong rooting interest for, I will always root for Jeter. And if the Angels are up 7-2 in the 8th inning, I'll even be happy when Jeter gets a hit against them.

I particularly admire his hustle, and the fact that he's never stopped hustling after playing for 18 years. I'm a few years older than Derek and I know I could not do that. I used to be really fast. Now when I play softball once a week I've got to follow some rules to keep my achilles intact: 1)try to hit the ball in the air every time 2) if it's on the ground, don't go full speed. An infield single is not worth the pain of aggravating my foot problems. In the last year I've had to move from shortstop to first base, the old man position.

He's been able to maintain the same style of play - the stats of 38 year old Jeter are almost interchangeable from those of mid 20's Derek Jeter. He's been a joy to watch and I'll miss him when it's all over. I'm pleased that he was able to turn back the clock this year (really, since mid way through last year).

I'll agree to post no numbers here. But I do want to address something from one of the recent threads that I didn't get around to doing there: Hate. The idea that criticism is because people like me hate Derek Jeter.

I rarely manage to see these threads through to the end, but were people really specifically accusing you of being a hater? Because a) I've never gotten that impression, but b) there certainly are a lot of people who do hate Jeter, and c) some of those people are regular posters at BBTF.

"I think he's been a below average defender at short pretty much his whole career" is not hate; "he gives back all of his bat and then some in the field" is.

concur with 10, fwiw

"I think he's been a below average defender at short pretty much his whole career" is not hate; "he gives back all of his bat and then some in the field" is.

Is this the definition that is used when talking about what should be done to playas but the not the game (or maybe it's vice versa, I'm not really sure)? Otherwise it's not hate either. I think it's plainly silly. But just because one believes something that I don't doesn't mean that some sinister motivation was involved, otherwise I'd think Ray was the hatingest bastard I'd ever met.

By the way, I agree wholeheartedly with AROM. And I'd love to see Jeter hang around to knock that filthy POS Rose off the all-time hits leaderboard. And that's something, because I'd stack my genuine, no ambiguities hate for the New York Yankees up against anyone's.

I rarely manage to see these threads through to the end, but were people really specifically accusing you of being a hater?

Nobody accused me specifically. There was a general comment that seemed to imply that anything negative about Jeter was motivated by Jeter-hate. Or at least that's how I read it.

There was a general comment that seemed to imply that anything negative about Jeter was motivated by Jeter-hate. Or at least that's how I read it.

I disagree with this interpretation and agree wholeheartedly with 10 and 11.

By the way, I agree wholeheartedly with AROM. And I'd love to see Jeter hang around to knock that filthy POS Rose off the all-time hits leaderboard. And that's something, because I'd stack my genuine, no ambiguities hate for the New York Yankees up against anyone's.

Depends how he does it. If Jeter can be a .300 hitter, and his defense does not degrade from here, or if he becomes the DH and keeps hitting at his 2011-12 level, I'd be happy with that.

But if Jeter turns into a .245 hitter with no power and -30 UZRs, succeeds Joe Girardi as Yankee manager so he can keep writing his own name in the lineup and chase the record, I'd lose a lot of my respect for him. I don't think there's much chance of the Yankees allowing something like that to happen though.

But if Jeter turns into a .245 hitter with no power and -30 UZRs, succeeds Joe Girardi as Yankee manager so he can keep writing his own name in the lineup and chase the record, I'd lose a lot of my respect for him. I don't think there's much chance of the Yankees allowing something like that to happen though.

I'd probably prefer that method myself, but that just might be the Yankee hate talking.

#14, here's the thread, and the comment in particular is #120.

He may have been completely unserious. Otherwise I have no idea what he was talking about. I can't find much hate in that thread unless that poster thinks that criticizing Jeter's fielding qualifies as hate.

[17] I was browsing the thread as it developed yesterday. I really don't think the comment was directed at you because your comments, IIRC, were reasonable. It was more towards the GuyMs of the world.

Rollins did lead the NL in outs in 2007, and is in the lead for his 5th Outs title this season.

Who has the most career out titles? Willie Wilson?

[17] I was browsing the thread as it developed yesterday. I really don't think the comment was directed at you because your comments, IIRC, were reasonable. It was more towards the GuyMs of the world.

Yeah, I think this is unfair. It's very clear to me that GuyM is highly invested in a particular understanding of fielding statistics, which has significant but non-majority support in the saber community. The idea is that PBP defensive stats are highly problematic, due to evidence of systemic mistakes in categorization and notation. One of the big errors that GuyM and others believe can be fleshed out from the PBP data is a sort of outcome bias - stringers tend to place fielded balls closer to where the shortstop positioned himself, and unfielded balls further from the fielder. This has the effect of dampening significantly the ratings of excellent and poor defenders.

Further, GuyM and others believe that the non-PBP defensive stats actually have quite a bit of overlooked utility. They think that Tango's WOWY analysis (adjusting non-PBP defensive stats according to every possible piece of information) provides the best defensive numbers that we've got at the moment.

It is entirely incidental to this that the non-PBP numbers rate Derek Jeter as a historically poor defenisve player. If it were any other player who happened to have such a huge gap between his PBP and non-PBP defensive ratings, GuyM would be talking about him. I think that attributing bias in this situation in entirely unfair. He and others are making a complex, worthwhile, data-driven argument which just happens to have taken Jeter as its focus because he's the most famous player whose evaluation is most affected by this analysis. Dismissing them as "haters" is wrong.

(I am unconvinced by this argument, primarily the part where non-PBP defensive statistics constitute strong evidence of defensive quality.)

I see a jump throw as being necessitated by lack of range and poor footwork, and producing a close play where good shortstops would just make a normal play. That Jeter is pushing himself to his limits and still making plays is praiseworthy; that he has more significant limitations than most shortstops is not.

Too many people ignore his effort and focus on the limitations. Likewise, too many people ignore his limitations and focus on his effort. IMO, a sizable portion of the people in either camp are doing so out of hate - but not hate of Jeter. They hate the hyperbole of the other camp.

Jeter is a great player. His hitting is the majority of his greatness, and competitive drive is most of the rest. But the final part is that he does all that while playing a competent SS. There are many great hitters in MLB, and most of the ones who are better than Jeter would, if they played SS, likely be far, far worse than Jeter is. That's not a typical comparison to make, but Jeter isn't the typical SS.

Rollins did lead the NL in outs in 2007, and is in the lead for his 5th Outs title this season.

Who has the most career out titles? Willie Wilson?

Let's see, it looks like Willie Wilson doesn't have any.

Rollins probably has the most! Wow.

The Phillies have been doing great in this category. Doug Glanville led the league twice. Juan Samuel three times, Larry Bowa twice, Cookie Rojas and Tony Taylor once each. 14 times a Phillie has led the league in outs, in the last 50 years.

Also Ruben Sierra three times. Bobby Richardson four times, which makes sense. Four times for Doc Cramer. Three times for Red Schoendienst, Luis Aparicio, Frankie Crosetti, and Ivy Olson, who Wilbert Robinson put in the leadoff spot to make out after out for seven straight years. (or I assume he was in the leadoff spot, BB-ref doesn't have the box scores for the Ivy Olson era).

This is just from scanning the list. I probably missed someone.

Interesting way to try to hijack the thread...by turning it into one about Sean Smith. BUT IT WON'T WORK!!!

Guys with uber-high media profiles always produce some level of backlash. I don't think it's worth quantifying, but it would be interesting to come up with some kind of a "Backlash Index." (Perhaps Backlasher can come out of retirement.) I don't think the backlash for Jeter has really penetrated very far into the MSM, however. For that, one needs a foil, someone like a T.J. Simers to be a lightning rod for one's "inner a-hole" or something. Jeter is fortunate in this regard because there's A-Rod right next to him on the Yankees sucking up most of that bandwidth for him.

It should be noted that Jeter's current offensive shape/value coalesced in the second half of 2011. Uncle Joe is moving kinda slow in getting around to recognizing what happened, but better late than never.

Interesting way to try to hijack the thread...by turning it into one about Sean Smith. BUT IT WON'T WORK!!!

Right you are! It's time for a thread about Ivy Olson!

Dismissing them as "haters" is wrong.

Maybe “haters” is the wrong term or we have different definitions, but I felt that the term was applied because of the insistence on the rightness of that side’s data as well complete unwillingness to consider alternatives. YMMV and I admit to being biased in my reading of the analysis because I am a Yankee fan (though not much of a Jeter fan). Also, IIRC, someone broached the argument that Prince Fielder would be a better SS than Jeter, so there’s that too.

Also, IIRC, someone broached the argument that Prince Fielder would be a better SS than Jeter, so there’s that too.

He would be a more hilarious shortstop. I will go to my grave insisting on that.

I appreciated that Sheehan came back and wrote this article, since he is clearly seen as part of the analytical movement that has stood against conventional wisdom regarding Derek Jeter. I remember reading the original piece, and found his arguments about Jeter's deterioration compelling. It's not often you see a writer come back and call himself out like this.

In the days of the Trinity, I felt that ARod and Garciaparra were better than Jeter, and that Jeter got a New York bump that overlooked his shortcomings. I've come around on him since then--he is a wonderful player and a team leader, who truly plays the game the way you'd want your kid to, and who handles himself with dignity (and who has sex with a lot of really attractive women). His range is not good, but I think that (similar to what villageidiom said) what bothers people on the pro-Jeter side of the debate is that so many of his detractors seem to completely overlook all of the positives.

Who has the most career out titles? Willie Wilson?

League Leaders in Outs Made

Name              Times
Bobby Richardson    4
Jimmy Rollins       4
Doc Cramer          3
Frankie Crosetti    3
Freddy Parent       3
Hughie Critz        3
Ivy Olson           3
Juan Pierre         3
Juan Samuel         3
Luis Aparicio       3
Rabbit Maranville   3
Red Schoendienst    3
Ruben Sierra        3

Willie Wilson never led the league in outs made.

Edit: Coke to Crispix who went with prose as the informative method, while I wasted time on the tabular.

Omar the Outmaker had one of the best negative nicknames ever, and yet only led the league in outs two times.

So Rollins has a chance to break the record this year. Cool. Sierra surprises me a little. I would have just assumed that he batted far enough down the lineup and missed enough games to be protected from this "honor."

[30] I'm surprised Alfonso Soriano wasn't up there.

Six-year outmaker leaders, ages 24-29:

                                                 
Rk             Player  Out From   To  OPS     Pos
1         Juan Pierre 2944 2002 2007 .713      *8
2       Jimmy Rollins 2911 2003 2008 .794      *6
3    Bobby Richardson 2876 1960 1965 .638   *4/56
4       Don Kessinger 2867 1967 1972 .638      *6
5          Cal Ripken 2860 1985 1990 .780      *6
6           Lou Brock 2839 1963 1968 .767   *79/8
7       Rick Burleson 2828 1975 1980 .688      *6
8     Garret Anderson 2815 1996 2001 .778  *789/D
9         Juan Samuel 2796 1985 1990 .728  *48/95
10     Billy Williams 2792 1962 1967 .860   *79/8
11      Luis Aparicio 2767 1958 1963 .645      *6
12       Johnny Damon 2766 1998 2003 .791  *87/9D
13         Ray Durham 2761 1996 2001 .786    *4/D
14         Nellie Fox 2761 1952 1957 .749      *4
15      Rafael Furcal 2759 2002 2007 .758    *6/4
16        Bobby Bonds 2757 1970 1975 .851  *98/D7
17     Tony Fernandez 2746 1986 1991 .737      *6
18        Vada Pinson 2746 1963 1968 .786    *8/9
19        Omar Moreno 2740 1977 1982 .654      *8
20      Kirby Puckett 2738 1984 1989 .826    *8/D
21    Brooks Robinson 2730 1961 1966 .782   *5/64
22        George Bell 2729 1984 1989 .835 *7/9D54
23          Steve Sax 2717 1984 1989 .708   *4/57
24      Glenn Beckert 2711 1965 1970 .659   *4/86
25    Bert Campaneris 2707 1966 1971 .667    *6/7

And the fewest, controlling for at least 3800 PAs in the age 24-29 range:

                                                 
Rk           Player  Out From   To   OPS      Pos
1      Frank Thomas 2161 1992 1997 1.066      *3D
2     Mickey Mantle 2181 1956 1961 1.061       *8
3     Eddie Collins 2190 1911 1916  .885       *4
4      Tris Speaker 2221 1912 1917  .942    *8/13
5        Wade Boggs 2245 1982 1987  .923   *5/3D7
6       Jimmie Foxx 2271 1932 1937 1.095 *3/25796
7      Goose Goslin 2274 1925 1930  .944    *7/89
8       Chuck Klein 2309 1929 1934 1.029    *97/8
9     Heinie Manush 2314 1926 1931  .894    *78/9
10       Lou Gehrig 2321 1927 1932 1.124    *3/79
11       Paul Waner 2327 1927 1932  .943   *9/387
12    Jim Bottomley 2357 1924 1929  .936     *3/4
13   Frankie Frisch 2358 1923 1928  .838    *4/56
14      Todd Helton 2361 1998 2003 1.047       *3
15          Mel Ott 2361 1933 1938  .965    *95/8
16   Frank Robinson 2379 1960 1965  .961  *97/385
17      Pie Traynor 2381 1923 1928  .820     *5/6
18   Carlos Delgado 2382 1996 2001  .960      *3D
19       Joe Sewell 2385 1923 1928  .837    *6/54
20       Will Clark 2393 1988 1993  .870       *3
21    Albert Pujols 2397 2004 2009 1.070    *3/D4
22      Ralph Kiner 2406 1947 1952 1.006     *7/3
23       Buddy Myer 2406 1928 1933  .776   *45/79
24     Sam Crawford 2425 1904 1909  .777    893/7
25       Eddie Yost 2428 1951 1956  .783    *5/97

But Bobby Richardson was a winner!

His truly abysmal offense was overlooked because he was fortunate enough to play for the best team in his league (5 out of the 6 years listed).

Jeter is 37 OPS+ points above his ZIPS projection and on pace for 75 more hits, as well as a lot more playing time than ZIPS projected. Is that a record for ZIPS misses, at least for age-38 seasons?

Willie only led the league in PA once, with 745. That one year apparently made my childhood memories of him include a great deal of PA.

jobu

please do not list sheehan as part of anything analtyical

please do not list sheehan as part of anything analtyical

Yeah, I get it, but his prior involvement in BPro gives him that halo/tars him with that brush.

Willie only led the league in PA once, with 745. That one year apparently made my childhood memories of him include a great deal of PA.

And he apparently had "only" 12 (or 13, depending on the source) inside-the-park home runs, when my childhood memories would indicate he had that many just on NBC games of the week.

His truly abysmal offense was overlooked because he was fortunate enough to play for the best team in his league (5 out of the 6 years listed).

He was actually decent with the bat in a couple of those seasons. And it wasn't his idea to bat himself leadoff in the years when he sucked.

I actually really don't like Derek Jeter.

I particularly admire his hustle, and the fact that he's never stopped hustling after playing for 18 years...He's been able to maintain the same style of play - the stats of 38 year old Jeter are almost interchangeable from those of mid 20's Derek Jeter.

Ya know, my days of defending a certain ex-Red to the death are long past (he really has proven himself to be scum), but I gotta say something here: If we were talking about Pete Rose, his hustle would be denigrated with asides about "hot dogging"; his stats would be tempered with "yea, but..."

Pete Rose, ages 24-29: 710 PA/yr, .321/.384/.467 (132 OPS+), 8/15 SB average per year, 5.2 WAR/yr.
Pete Rose, 38: 732 PA, .331/.418/.430 (130 OPS+), 20/31 SB, 2.9 WAR.

Derek Jeter, ages 24-29: 678 PA/yr, .324/.397/.450 (128 OPS+), 24/29 SB/yr, 5.2 WAR/yr.
Derek Jeter, 38: on pace for 731 PA (if he doesn't get extra rest before the playoffs), .324/.364/.450 (119 OPS+), 11/14 (pro-rated) SB, on pace for 2.5 WAR.

EDIT: My point? Many here do exactly the same thing that "we" complain about WRT sportswriters; that they let their emotions and pre-conceived notions about a player color their perceptions about the player's actual ability.

jobu

please do not list sheehan as part of anything analtyical

Sheehan is not and has never been on the cutting edge of analytical research. But he understands the research well, and its advantages and flaws, and his writing and conclusions reflect that.

Anyway, as I wrote in another thread, Jeter's rebound on offense is almost entirely due to his ability to hit LHP. He hasn't hit righties well since 2009.

ray

no he doesn't.

Anyway, as I wrote in another thread, Jeter's rebound on offense is almost entirely due to his ability to hit LHP. He hasn't hit righties well since 2009.

Is this common among aging batters? I feel like I see that a lot. Lefthanded hitters who used to be very capable against southpaws but are relegated to platoon players as their performance against them falls off.

It is actually a good thing for the yankees that jeter is hitting lefties so well, since the yankees seem increasingly susceptible to them.

If we were talking about Pete Rose, his hustle would be denigrated with asides about "hot dogging"

I thought that was Jim Edmonds.

As for Rose, I didn't see him at his best. The player who passed Musial and Aaron on the hit lists before making his run at Ty Cobb, wasn't much of a ballplayer.

I like Jeter's hustle because it results in tangible benefits on the field - more bases taken, infield hits, forcing infield errors - than a player with similar skills and average hustle would get. Rose was probably the same way, but I didn't see a lot of it. There was his sprinting to first on walk which was basically all for show. That doesn't give him any points in my book.

ray

no he doesn't.

Fair enough. You could be right; it's not my impression, but that's fine.

He was actually decent with the bat in a couple of those seasons. And it wasn't his idea to bat himself leadoff in the years when he sucked.

Richardson's oWAR 1960-1965: 0.4, 0.0, 3.0, 0.9, 0.6, 0.0.

I'll concede 1962 as being "decent". Everything else, considering noise, is basically replacement level.

I agree that he wasn't the one putting his name in the leadoff position. Both Stengel and Houk played him nearly full time (Stengel appears to have platooned him some when he was younger), so they either saw something in him that the statistics don't show or felt that they didn't have a better option. And as a person, I don't think you could have a better guy. I've never read where anyone said something negative about Richardson personally.

Also, IIRC, someone broached the argument that Prince Fielder would be a better SS than Jeter

I did write an article advocating moving Frank Thomas to SS (based on his very high range factor -- much higher than any SS in the game).

But it was an April fools article.

I'll concede 1962 as being "decent". Everything else, considering noise, is basically replacement level.

Why the 1960 starting point? Richardson had 2.2 oWAR in 1959, in only 507 PA.

ray

if you follow the community and listen to sheehan he, like neyer, spout what they have heard legitimately informed intelligent people say on the topic without the depth of thought behind it. they have a script and they read from the script and if the script changes they nod their head and begin reading the revised script.

the analytical community is fortunate that these individuals are now with organizations more worthy of their 'talents' in sheehan riding the titanic that is si into oblivion and neyer with sbnation where serious thinking gets in the way

PED, QED.

If Jeter ever tested positive I think Andy's head would explode.

Jeter's rebound on offense is almost entirely due to his ability to hit LHP. He hasn't hit righties well since 2009.

Jeter is hitting .299 against right-handed pitching this year. The power isn't the same as in his best years, but .299 is pretty good against the platoon disadvantage.

The player who passed Musial and Aaron on the hit lists before making his run at Ty Cobb, wasn't much of a ballplayer.

This is exactly what I'm talking about. "The player who passed Musial" hit .325/.391/.390 (118 OPS+) and lead the majors in hits (1981).

If Jeter ever tested positive I think Andy's head would explode.

I think the affect on Andy would be utterly negligible compared to millions of others.

I thought Jeter was done too, probably with a slight rebound, but nothing like this.

Again, Jeter's entire resurgence on offense has come from the ability to mash lefties as well or better than he ever has. He is still mediocre at best against righties (.729 OPS), and hasn't hit them well since 2009.

I don't know what to conclude from this. I thought he was done also, but I thought he'd make some adjustments to narrow his game and therefore rebound a bit on offense -- but what I had in mind was that maybe he'd start swinging at pitches in a certain location more, or layoff pitches in another location, or be more aggressive against a certain pitch type, etc. The way his rebound has come -- almost entirely from hitting LHP -- has been surprising to me. I don't know if a hitter would say to himself, "Ok, what can I still do well, hit lefties? Let's focus on that."

As for Rose, I didn't see him at his best. The player who passed Musial and Aaron on the hit lists before making his run at Ty Cobb, wasn't much of a ballplayer.

You can get some idea from the '75 WS DVDs - Rose was WS MVP that year.
I know the time investment is kind of like Wagner for baseball fans, but I found it totally worth it. Rose on third, Joe Morgan on first.... any pitcher's nightmare.

This is exactly what I'm talking about. "The player who passed Musial" hit .325/.391/.390 (118 OPS+) and lead the majors in hits (1981).

The postmodernish decontruction of Rose the player, based on a hyperventilating overreaction to amps and laying a few bucks on the Reds to win from time to time, is one of the oddest things this observer has ever witnessed. The idea that Rose was a mere compiler, hanging on by his fingernails, the greenie bowl, and unwarranted access to the lineup card is simply batshit insane.

jeter is a really smart guy. really smart guys know how to make adjustments.

for all we know if you look at jeter's hit chart he has stopped swinging at certain pitches in certain zones unless there are two strikes as a means of compensating. many a smart older player has sacrificed some area of the hitting zone to concentrate his efforts

Jeter is hitting .299 against right-handed pitching this year. The power isn't the same as in his best years, but .299 is pretty good against the platoon disadvantage.

He's at .299/.346/.383 (.729) against righties. And I don't want to make too much of this, but in two games on August 19th and 20th he went 7-9 with a HR and three doubles against RHP; before that point he was hovering around a .700 OPS against them.

He's at .299/.346/.383 (.729) against righties. And I don't want to make too much of this, but in two games on August 19th and 20th he went 7-9 with a HR and three doubles against RHP; before that point he was hovering around a .700 OPS against them.

You are making too much out of it. What's the point of parsing out those two games? There's no point at all.

What are the odds that Derek Jeter has in any conscious way decided to start concentrating on killing lefties at the expense of his production against righties? I think it's very close to impossible. And doesn't The Book say it takes like thousands of PAs for platoon advantages to normalize?

As for Rose, I didn't see him at his best. The player who passed Musial and Aaron on the hit lists before making his run at Ty Cobb, wasn't much of a ballplayer.

From one who was there, Rose in the '60s and '70s could do a lot. While he never had big HR power, he had several seasons with 40-50 doubles, and a lot of those came from stretching singles into doubles. He was always very aggressive about taking extra bases. He never had the range to really do the job as an infielder but he was an excellent outfielder who could pretty much run down anything hit out there. As happens with a lot of players, he didn't walk much when he first came up but over the years his batting eye got better and he had some pretty good walk totals and excellent OBPs in the '70s (maybe it was exposure to Joe Morgan?). In the mid-'70s he moved back to the infield to let the Reds get George Foster into the lineup in LF. So, basically Pete could do a lot of things to help a team - hitting, baserunning, fielding (if he was at the right position) and making life livable in the clubhouse. His obsession with stats was derided some times not just in the media but by some of his teammates, but I've heard several of his teammates say that they always wanted to be on a team with Pete Rose because that was always going to be a team that got the absolute most out of every opportunity to win a game.

He's at .299/.346/.383 (.729) against righties. And I don't want to make too much of this, but in two games on August 19th and 20th he went 7-9 with a HR and three doubles against RHP; before that point he was hovering around a .700 OPS against them.

Interestingly, Jeter has already seen more left-handed pitching this season than in all of '11. Including last night's game, he has 173 PAs against lefties versus 388 against righties, whereas last season he had 168 PAs against southpaws versus 439 against righties.

I think a lot of the view of Rose as a compiler comes from the metrics we used to assess hitters at the time: Avg, HR, RBIs (maybe runs). Pete Rose was never a guy with a lot of power, but he was a ".300 hitter." And when he wasn't hitting .300 anymore, he didn't seem to merit a lineup spot (even setting aside that he was playing a traditional power position).

His batting averages from 1982 on:
.271
.245
.286
.264
.219

All with no power, and at first base.

His OPS+ from 1982 on makes him look closer to replacement level, but no one looked at this back then:
90
69--for the 1983 Phillies, who did all right despite having a historically terrible-hitting first baseman
99
99
61

A Jeter who hits like that and who declines in his defense will not be a pretty sight.

A Jeter who hits like that and who declines in his defense will not be a pretty sight.

I don't think it's that bad. a 61 OPS+ looks ghastly anywhere, of course, but the 90-100 OPS+ isn't too bad. That's better than many teams do even at the power positions, and he brings the record chase and associated positive fanfare with him. I think in a few years that Jeter, even at a 90 OPS+, could do what Michael Young does now - bump around between DH and utility infielder and get a ton of ABs and inspire everyone.

The interesting thing is when he gets to the point where the Yankees can only give him 300 ABs, and the Astros will give him 600.

He's at .299/.346/.383 (.729) against righties.

The 2012 league average OBP is .326 for a hitter in NYS according to BBRef. Getting on base like that means he is contributing at the top of the lineup, even without any power.

Interestingly, Jeter has already seen more left-handed pitching this season than in all of '11. Including last night's game, he has 173 PAs against lefties versus 388 against righties, whereas last season he had 168 PAs against southpaws versus 439 against righties.

I don't think that is an accident. The Yanks don't have a lot of answers for lefties in the lineup this year (.809 OPS vs. righties; .772 OPS vs. lefties). Jayson Nix is their third baseman against lefties right now.

69--for the 1983 Phillies, who did all right despite having a historically terrible-hitting first baseman

And who started 28 yo non-prospect, September callup, Len Matuszek in 17 games in September/October. Rose started 11. Tony Perez started 3.

Interestingly, Jeter has already seen more left-handed pitching this season than in all of '11. Including last night's game, he has 173 PAs against lefties versus 388 against righties, whereas last season he had 168 PAs against southpaws versus 439 against righties.

Hmm. Is his 2012 resurgence based almost entirely on the fluke of a greater % of his PA being against lefties?

OK, I forgot exactly which year Pete Rose passed Musial. He was a truly great player for a long time, up to his age 40 season (1981). From there on, he was not a good baseball player. Up through age 40, he was an 80 WAR player. From 41 on, he was a -3.5 WAR player in 2469 PA. A first baseman hitting 261/348/315, an 86 OPS+.

He still had a great batting eye, almost twice as many walks as strikeouts, so he wasn't completely useless. His skill set would have been well suited to pinch hitting. It was only his pursuit of the hit record, teams enabling him to chase that record, and allowing him to write his own name in the lineup card that got him past Cobb.

At what point would Jeter be a bigger asset at DH than he's been at SS? I had always expected A-Rod to age better than Jeter, but it appears I was wrong on that.

Hmm. Is his 2012 resurgence based almost entirely on the fluke of a greater % of his PA being against lefties?

No, he is hitting better against both righties and lefties than he did in 2010-11.

I wouldn't call it a fluke either. It's a completely rational decision by opponents to get lefties in there whenever it's a valid option. You've got Granderson, Cano, Ichiro, Chavez, and Ibanez from the left, Swisher and Tex as switch hitters. Especially with A-Rod out, the only righties are the sub-.200 hitting catcher, and Jeter.

I wouldn't call it a fluke either. It's a completely rational decision by opponents to get lefties in there whenever it's a valid option. You've got Granderson, Cano, Ichiro, Chavez, and Ibanez from the left, Swisher and Tex as switch hitters. Especially with A-Rod out, the only righties are the sub-.200 hitting catcher, and Jeter.

Well, yeah, but such a rational decision by opponents has nothing to do with whether Jeter has actually rebounded as a hitter.

I've heard several of his teammates say that they always wanted to be on a team with Pete Rose because that was always going to be a team that got the absolute most out of every opportunity to win a game.

He was one of those guys who was great to have on your side, but a total PITA as an opponent.
Kind of like Jeter, there, again.

It was only his pursuit of the hit record, teams enabling him to chase that record, and allowing him to write his own name in the lineup card that got him past Cobb.

There's nothing objectionable about a pro athlete pursuing a record.

As to "enabling," the Yankees signed A-Rod to a mega-contract extending to his age 42 season with explicit incentives for setting home run records. That's enabling. The '84 Expos were preseason contenders and Rose was a utility player for them, and the '83 Phillies were actual contenders. The Expos gave him 314 PAs in about five months in 1984 and he wasn't writing the lineup card. The hometown team signed him as a player-manager late in 1984, and he did an excellent job as the team's manager. Any "enabling" was for five months between April and August 1985, by the hometown nine, and even that's a stretch.

Big whoop.

allowing him to write his own name in the lineup card that got him past Cobb.

The pace at which he wrote his own name in the lineup card for the Reds in 1985 was essentially the same as a manager other than him wrote his name in the lineup card for the Expos in 1984.

Rose had a 147 OPS+ for the Reds during his 1984 stint with them, and a 99 OPS+ for the year. He wasn't done.

The 1985 Reds jumped to 89 from 70 wins in 1984, 7 wins above their Pythag, and Dave Parker got his career back on track. Rose did a great job managing that team. It's utterly absurd to suggest that the 1985 Reds were some kind of circus act or blight on baseball.

He was one of those guys who was great to have on your side, but a total PITA as an opponent.
Kind of like Jeter, there, again.

I wasn't aware opponents thought of Jeter in that light.

Rose lost the 1985 NL Manager of the Year vote to Whitey (101 wins, +17 from '84, NL Champs) by one vote.

the discussion has taken place on whether rose the manager played favorites with rose the player.

given that the reds as a team did pretty well under rose's stewardship it's pretty hard to point any accusatory fingers.

the reds did have a lot of talent come up under rose but he did stick guys in the lineup.

eric davis got his start under rose. barry larkin. kal daniels. paul o'neill. chris sabo

sure all these guys were talented but i have seen a lot of managers make guys all but beg to get in the lineup. rose played guys who could play. whatever his failings as a manager he did the most important thing pretty well.

I'm not sure OPS+ is the best way to evaluate players with very high OBP and low SLG. Rose in 1985, e.g. was .264/.395/.319 for a 99 OPS+. I find it hard to believe that any player with a .395 OBP is a below average hitter. He also struck out less than 10% of his at bats and was 8 out of 9 as a base stealer at age 44.

Rose was 4th in the National League in OBP in 1985 and had an OBP 40-odd points higher than the next highest Red regular. He should have batted himself leadoff and written his name in more than 119 times.

I'm not sure OPS+ is the best way to evaluate players with very high OBP and low SLG. Rose in 1985, e.g. was .264/.395/.319 for a 99 OPS+. I find it hard to believe that any player with a .395 OBP is a below average hitter. He also struck out less than 10% of his at bats and was 8 out of 9 as a base stealer at age 44.

Well, I'd call a 99 OPS+ an "average" hitter, since the difference between 99 and 100 is meaningless. With the OBP properly weighted, we can get him to very slightly above average, and in fact BP has him at a .267 EqA. So, slightly above average. But not really someone who is helping at first base; a .267 EqA is below average for the position.

The .319 SLG really is horrid.

And as I always point out, look at Rose's walk rate. "All" he wanted was to break Cobb's record and the SOB still refused to swing at a pitch outside the zone.

4 Don Kessinger 2867 1967 1972 .638 *6
10 Williams 2792 1962 1967 .860 *79/8
24 Glenn Beckert 2711 1965 1970 .659 *4/86


#1, #2 and #3/4 in the Cubs lineup for many years. :-)

In genuine fairness to Williams, I only included him for humorous reasons. He and Cal make the list because they played everyday.

Rose hit 347/467/408 against lefties in 1985 but he used Tony Perez (OPS+ 138) as the primary 1B against lefties.

And as I always point out, look at Rose's walk rate. "All" he wanted was to break Cobb's record and the SOB still refused to swing at a pitch outside the zone.

And that is why I find it hard to believe that Rose would ever throw a game, even under duress. It's not in his nature to accept losing in any way.

And that is why I find it hard to believe that Rose would ever throw a game, even under duress. It's not in his nature to accept losing in any way.

I find it hard to believe as well, but he nonetheless deserves the punishment he's been given.

There's nothing objectionable about a pro athlete pursuing a record.

We finally agree on Barry Bonds!

And that is why I find it hard to believe that Rose would ever throw a game, even under duress. It's not in his nature to accept losing in any way.

While it is generally understood that Pete wasn't trying to lose games - even the Dowd report could only find examples of betting slips where Pete supposedly had the Reds to win - it still is a slippery slope to be on. If you have $$ down to win today's game, and if you have your best starter going today but an iffy bullpen, do you leave the starter out there longer than you normally would to try to maximize your chances to win today's game - as if it was Game 7 of the WS - at the expense of future games where your best starter is unavailable because he's on the DL because you blew out his arm on a 150 pitch outing in a July game where it was 110 degrees? (OK, that's not a very well written sentence but you get the idea).

This doesn't even take into account the possibility of getting in over your head with the bookies to the point where you can be coerced to throw games. But it still is an example of how gambling on the games can cause a manager to not act in the best interests of the team.

Hmm...I wonder if Dusty has a gambling problem?

From 41 on, he was a -3.5 WAR player in 2469 PA. A first baseman hitting 261/348/315, an 86 OPS+.

Yes, although most of that is defense. Not that it's hard to believe a 41+ guy was a horrible defender.

But as a hitter, he was replacement level for 1B until his age 44 season. The late Rose career is a weird one but go give it some context:

39-41: 289/359/357, 99 OPS+

Now Ray raised mean production. But that's not necessarily the best way to look at it when you're asking a question such as "does this guy deserve a starting job (or 400+ PA). There you are going to focus more on the median as that's a better indicator of what sort of alternative you might have available in the market (i.e. Votto, Pujols, etc. pull that mean way up but you ain't gonna get them) plus what you've got in your own system.

Well, 1980-1982 combined, min 600 PA total, 75% games at 1B ... Rose was 17th in OPS+. And he was 11 points ahead of #19. Let's not overstate things as there are only 20 qualifying players. Yeah, even I can't quite figure that one out. So let's drop our %age requirement to 50% -- this drops Rose to 23rd and puts him in a range of seven 1B from Willie Upshaw at 94 to Tony Perez at 105. There are still 3 guys below Upshaw. Perez aside, that group is largely in their prime.

1983-85

Perez: 641 PA, 103 OPS+ (big 85)
Revering: DNP, he had been truly awful in 81-82 with 79 OPS+
Putnam: put up an 80 OPS+ in 1982; 517 PA in 83 with a 109; 212 PA in 84 with a 35! Done
Ron Jackson: 83-84, 507 PA, 66 OPS+, done
Jorgenson: 83-85, 368 PA, 88 OPS+
Upshaw: 1800+ PA, 123 OPS+
Squires: 261 PA, 51 OPS+
Montanez: DNP, he was really done after 1980
Spencer: DNP, he was really done after 1980

So there really weren't better options down at the bottom of the 1B barrel.

Now, we do get a real mystery. In 1983, Rose had a horrific season -- 69 OPS+ in 555 PA. Why the Phils gave him tht kind of playing time is a mystery. And why the Expos signed him? I guess hoping he'd break the record in Montreal and boost the gate. But ...

Rose 84-85: 922 PA, 99 OPS+, 378 OBP, 9 Rbat, 2 oWAR and even 1 WAR

1B 50%, min 400 PA, 84-85:

Rose is #27 which puts him as a 400 PA type of player. His ranking is lower but again he's in a bumch of nine 1B from Garbey at 94 to Cooper at 104. Chambliss, Bergman, Thomson and Perry got significant playing time while hitting worse than that group of 9. Except for Garbey, everybody in that group of nine has 736 to 1300 PA. Cooper, Tabler, Buckner, Carew, Garvey, Hargrove, Green -- teams were trotting out 1B like this all over the place. And as you could probably guess, Rose and Carew dominate these guys in OBP. Even in comparison to some better-hitting guys, he's not that far off in raw numbers:

Rose 275/378/327
J Thompson 249/362/384
Bochte 279/349/390
Cabell 293/337/389
Francona 301/326/400
Driessen 255/332/397

Power and apparently park effects put those guys ahead of Rose but we're now up to 13 1B plus Rose who, looking at em, you think "we gotta be able to do better than that." Unfortunately, by Rbat, there are only 12 guys who were as much as 10 runs better than Rose and one of those is Bochte. It might seem silly but Pete O'Brien was a top-10 1B in the mid-80s.

But surely things are vastly different now. Alas no ... 2010-2011, min 400 PA, 50% at 1B ... only 17 guys topped Rose's Rbat from 84-85 with 13 beating him by more than 10. Kothcman (1000), Helton (950), Dunn (1150), Loney (1200), Overbay (1050) and LaRoche (800) all had 5 or fewer Rbat in more or equal number of PA as Rose.

Now bring in defense and Rose definitely looks worse but even his measly 1 WAR still would put him around #25 for 2011-12.

I don't kid myself -- Rose got those chances in his 40s because of the hit record. And he had no business playing in 86. But his actual performance was quite typical for a guy who gets about 400 PA a year and wasn't then and wouldn't be now out of range for a bad starting, good bench 1B. As I always say, as long as the Dodgers keep penciling in James Loney at 1B, it's hard to argue that playing Rose was nuts.

This is my cue to mention that teams with Pete Rose on the field once he was PETE ROSE outperformed their pythags like crazy. I mean all the time. He was an inspirational leader that led the others to be winners.

He was an inspirational leader that led the others to be winners.

Translation: Everyone was terrified of what Rose would do to them if they caused Pete to lose a bet.

This is my cue to mention that teams with Pete Rose on the field once he was PETE ROSE outperformed their pythags like crazy. I mean all the time. He was an inspirational leader that led the others to be winners.

Pete Rose's teams vs. their Pythags, 1963-72: Even
Pete Rose's teams vs. their Pythags, 1973-85: + 43**

So your point is well taken, and it naturally aroused by curiosity about the subject of this thread.

Derek Jeter's teams vs. their Pythags, 1996-2012: +45

**Not counting his 1984 season, when he was a part time player for Montreal (-4) and Cinci (+2), or 1986, when he played in only 72 games for the Reds (+3) but it's hard to tell who caused the bump.

Pete Rose was good at first, but then he went too far.

I get +26 for Sheffield 2001-9
Milton Bradley at +13 for his career (not counting the OAK/SDP year and early stuff)

Derek Jeter's Mariano Rivera's teams vs. their Pythags, 1996-2012: +45

*cough*

Because a) I've never gotten that impression, but b) there certainly are a lot of people who do hate Jeter, and c) some of those people are regular posters at BBTF.

I fall under B) and C).

Though that doesn't prevent me from recognizing that Derek Jeter is a great player. I just hate him.

But Bobby Richardson was a winner!

His truly abysmal offense was overlooked because he was fortunate enough to play for the best team in his league (5 out of the 6 years listed).

I've made this point before, but the venerated Bobby Richardson and the reviled Horace Clarke were almost exactly the same player -- same team, same position, same offensive value, nearly the same time -- except that Clarke was slightly better defensively. (But Bobby had better teammates...)

I just hate him.

Based on what?

His blandness and corporatespeak in every interview he's ever given? 90% of pro athletes share this trait, and 90% of the ones who don't are generally bungholes.

Something specific he's said or done?

His gift baskets? Unique, but also kind of humorous, you have to admit.

Stories about his pickup moves in bars? Not exactly unknown among thousands of other celebrity Alpha males.

His lack of range in the field?

All those Gold Gloves that caused the future widows of more deserving shortstops to weep softly?

You think all those hits to the opposite field are just luck?

The over-the-top love he gets from much of the media? Do you also hate Cal Ripken, Eli Manning, Michael Jordan, or (if you're ever near Washington) "RG3"? (I almost hate that guy myself just for that chalk-on-the-blackboard nickname)

Having to listen to McCarver go on about him one too many times? That I can understand.

Or is it just all of the above, plus his Satan's Pajamas? Is there any other player you have this reaction to?

Do you also hate Cal Ripken, Eli Manning, Michael Jordan, or (if you're ever near Washington) "RG3"?

Yes. Yes. Yes. Give it time.

There is a lot of difference between hating Jeter and hating Jeter-worship. The player himself, I have no problems with. I have him, assuming a normal late decline phase, as the #13-15 shortstop of all time, even with the lousy glove. That's a HoF player, at the boundary between the middle and outer circles. But this site gets a lot of comments and threads that want to turn him into a demi-god. We recently had a thread started by someone who wanted to claim that Jeter should be the first player ever to get a unanimous vote first-round into the HoF, because he is so much greater than anyone else. THAT, I dislike, because it isn't true.

There is also a larger historical issue, which I've mentioned on a couple of other threads. Jeter and Mike Piazza are the start of something reasonably new in the history of baseball careers. They are great bat / lousy glove players who were not moved off of their prime defensive positions when their defenses got really lousy. The reason, as I see it, is that modern baseball, with great groundskeeping and wonderful equipment and medicine, has resulted in a game where it's hard to make any really destructive number of bad plays. There are guys who make a lot of bad plays compared to their current peers, but not to their peers a few decades earlier. In many ways, Piazza is like Jimmy Foxx, who started as a catcher, except that Foxx played in the 1930s, where his glove at catcher would have been ruinous to his teams, so they had to move him to 3B and then to 1B. Rogers Hornsby started out as a decent defensive shortstop, but put on weight, which allowed him to hit the ball harder, but cost him his SS range. Nowadays, he'd be like Jeter. There would be no reason to move him (Hornsby, BTW, was moved off of SS several years before he developed the inner ear problem that kept him from going back on popups, which happened in 1923). Rogers would have been a lousy career SS, but no worse than Jeter is. However, in the game of the 1920s-30s, a bad SS did a lot more damage than a bad SS does now.

The game changes. Always has. Hopefully, always will. We're going to see a lot of these guys in the future. Joe Torre, and, to a lesser extent, Ted Simmons, were sort of the warning shot across the bow. Piazza and Jeter are the direct hits. In response, their fans complain that their defenses aren't really that bad, and the fans can become irrational about it and then we have flame wars. Those are unproductive. Trying to figure out how to balance this new kind of career in Hall voting is productive. I doubt that Jeter fans are willing to agree that Jeter will not rank in the top ten of SS. They are going to want to minimize the bad glove. But that's an argument about where to place Jeter within the Hall. It's not an argument about whether he belongs in the Hall or not. Of course he does. He's just not an inner circle guy, because his glove is historically bad. It's historically bad because he is certainly the best hitter ever to be allowed to play SS with that bad a glove. He certainly hits well enough to play elsewhere, but the damage done by his glove is no longer large enough to force that move. The same thing applies to Piazza. That's not a good reason to turn a dispute over where within the Hall to rank them into a dispute over whether to put them in the HoF at all. Of course Jeter is a Hall of Famer. He's just not a top ten SS, because he is the worst defensive SS to ever belong in the Hall. Every other Hall caliber player who was this bad at SS got himself moved to a lesser spot. If we don't confuse the two issues, we'll have a lot fewer flame threads. - Brock Hanke

brock

i was reading your post with an open mind until mid way through the last paragraph with the historically bad nonsense.

give me a break.

defensive stat evaluation is still in its infancy and if you are going to state is the brock hanke eyeball test then i will tell you to get your eyes checked because i have been watching this game for longer than you and jeter had his issues but at worst he was below average.

if you are going to claim historically bad when a betancourt has played almost 1000 games at ss or a michael young almost 800 and if we want go back further how about the houston days of rafael ramirez you have a pretty tall order.

jeter has been a below average shortstop for a long time. but he's held serve meaning there has not been a string of seasons where he's been a train wreck or he would have forced the yankees hand. when jeter dipped around age 30 he did something, what i don't know, and got some of it back for a few years. now it looks like father time has caught up again so maybe in another year it will be time to find another home for 'the captain'.

you speak of wanting to avoid flame threads avoiding phrases like 'historically bad' would be a good start.

I just hate him.

Based on what?

Two or three years ago, I was with a buddy in pretty good seats for a Friday night Rangers/Islanders tilt. Directly in front of us were two Islander fans who -- believe it or not -- were somewhat thoughtful, so they spent much of the game congratulating themselves for "debunking" this and that shibboleth.(*)

The third period rolls around and the greatest chant in world sport starts. After the uproarious echoes of "POTVIN SUCKS!!!!" sufficiently fade, one of them says something like, "You know, that's never really made much sense." The other replies, all chin-strokey, "I know; I'd just like to ask sometime, 'But why? Why does he suck??'"

They're sitting kind of 90 degrees in their seats, their front shoulder pointed at the ice; their back one pointed at us, rather inviting an answer.

So my friend gives them one: "He just does. OKAY?????"

(*) One was wearing the Islander pumpkin colored third jersey with a degree of irony -- not DeKalb Corn trucker hat irony, but whatever. Close enough for hockey.