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1. Jose Can You Seabiscuit Posted: July 29, 2010 at 12:28 PM (#3602421)"Hey kids, you can become super famous and make hundreds of millions of dollars by taking this magic pill. But don't do it."
Also, I wrote something recently on the Hall of Fame candidacy of Don Mattingly, and I noted that the Veterans Committee historically has a better than 50 percent hit rate on enshrining players who peak between 20 and 30 percent of the BBWAA vote.
I don't know if I see McGriff getting in with the writers but he seems like the kind of candidate the Veterans Committee is designed for.
The answer is yes.
OTOH, his 1994 HR total would stick out like a sore thumb if it had been a full season. Wonder what guys like Shelton would write about that?
This is very true.
I think Shelton's playing a doubly stupid game here. First, he assumes McGriff was clean, for no other apparent reason than to get a column out of it. Sure, McGriff didn't have "cartoon biceps" but of course neither did Palmeiro, and neither did a lot of the no-name guys who have actually been suspended for PED use. The reason that he gives is that "he never had a season where his numbers spiked sharply" and "when he was at an age when his numbers should have fallen off, McGriff's fell off." But that's ignoring that 1999 season when he was 35, and his SLG jumped 100 points over what it had been the previous two seasons. Then after average year, his power spiked again in 2001, at age 37. I'm absolutely not suggesting that he was using; I'm just saying that I get annoyed when writers arbitrarily pick and choose who was and wasn't clean. Especially when, as in this case, the player doesn't even fit the criteria that the writer arbitrarily made up to "prove" that he was clean.
Second, he writes that the PED users "conspired to make his numbers look small." But McGriff's numbers really only look small if you have no way of putting them in context. McGriff's prime was in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when he was in the top 5 in adjusted OPS+ for 5 straight years and 6 of 7 (between 1988 and 1994), and that one other year outside of the top 5, he finished 6th. He was, simply, one of the game's dominant hitters during the prime of his career. But comparing him to Bonds, Sosa, and McGwire will of course make his numbers look small, because all those guys put up their enormous numbers in the late 1990s and early 2000s, when McGriff was already in his mid 30s and in his decline.
Except that he did have a season where the only number that matters to steroids crusaders spiked sharply. It's just masked by the fact that that season was shortened by a work stoppage. And don't waste your time with that tired stuff about a league-wide jump in offense that must have been the result of multiple factors. They don't want to hear it.
Rk Player OPS+ PA Year Age2 Dave Martinez 92 594 1999 34
3 Dave Martinez 72 347 1998 33
4 Fred McGriff 142 620 1999 35
5 Fred McGriff 111 649 1998 34
6 John Flaherty 83 482 1999 31
7 John Flaherty 39 334 1998 30
9 Kevin Stocker 90 286 1999 29
10 Kevin Stocker 54 381 1998 28
12 Paul Sorrento 92 348 1999 33
13 Paul Sorrento 85 495 1998 32
14 Wade Boggs 94 334 1999 41
15 Wade Boggs 94 483 1998 40
Well ... yeah. You just made the columnist's point for him. Crime Dog was one of the best hitters in the game for a nice spell and his numbers were made to look small(er) by the numbers put by guys in the heart of the Steroid Era.(**)
Don't feel alone, though; these threads frequently wind up with apologists engaged in furious combat with varying mixtures of straw men and themselves.
(**) McGriff is only a year older than Bonds and from 88-91 they compare very favorably in OPS+ -- McGriff 157, 166, 153, 147; Bonds 148, 126, 170, 160. Bonds took off in 92 (and then again after 98), but McGriff's numbers were still very, very good through 94. McGriff's the same age as McGwire and beat him in OPS every year from 88-91. McGwire wins 92-94.
And Tom Emansky.
The point - which perhaps I did a poor job of making - is that McGriff's numbers only look small if you don't know what you're looking at. If the BBWAA (or whoever) overlooks McGriff's numbers because of the bright twinkly lights from the steroid era, that's their own fault, not the fault of the "cheaters".
Bottom line is, McGriff isn't a guy who stayed clean and so couldn't compete. He's a guy who put up a borderline HOF case regardless of what he or anyone around him did or didn't do.
I'd further add that when it comes to McGriff, this isn't a new phenomenon, as he was pretty clearly overlooked at the time, before the steroid era began. As you say, he was a better player than McGriff from 1988-1991, but in that time McGwire had 4 All-Star appearances to McGriff's zero. In 1991, he was left off the NL team while John Kruk made it as a 1B, for crying out loud. He was perenially underrated in terms of MVP voting throughout the peak of his career. He's always been underrated, as Palmeiro was even before his positive steroid test ended the discussion about him.
A quick glance suggests Kruk might have been the only Phils rep (and he had a pretty good year) that year. Eddie Murray's selection may have been less defensible on its merits. OTOH, he was Eddie Murray.
More importantly, who f-ing cares?
No one's laying blame on the "cheaters" for somehow misleading the writers. That's another straw man.
The case made by the column and other defenders of guys roughly McGriff's age is that the numbers put up after him made his numbers look more "tiny." Which they did. That isn't blaming anyone for anything, but instead simply pointing out reality. Yes, the writers should be able to deliberate and reason their way to a better conclusion about the 80s guys, but to date they've shown little ability to do so.
I'd further add that when it comes to McGriff, this isn't a new phenomenon, as he was pretty clearly overlooked at the time, before the steroid era began. As you say, he was a better player than McGriff from 1988-1991, but in that time McGwire had 4 All-Star appearances to McGriff's zero. In 1991, he was left off the NL team while John Kruk made it as a 1B, for crying out loud. He was perenially underrated in terms of MVP voting throughout the peak of his career.
All true and insightful. You have a guy who was underrated in his day who now has the additional obstacle of writer confusion placed in the way of his HOF candidacy.
From the article: "...the Tampa native and former Ray did not curse the cheaters who conspired to make his numbers look small." Emphasis mine.
I don't know how to square your contention with what Shelton actually wrote. I would only suggest that when someone says something, and someone else argues with it, that is not what a "straw man" is.
No, but seriously, thanks for the hip analogy. It really added to my understanding of the concept of "stealing." 2110 version of this article: "They stole from Moyer like a SPACE swindler who swindled your SPACE Mandatory Citizenship Card and got away on a SPACESHIP. IN SPACE."
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