As Primer fave Malkmus once said…“I like that Get Hustle. They’re cool live. I haven’t heard their records, though.”
If those writing and/or posting to my e-mail and Twitter accounts are an accurate barometer – and from the insane nature of many of them, please, please let that not be true – then the leading reason why the Yankees have not run away with the AL East is because Robinson Cano will not run quickly to first base.
If only Cano were like, say, I don’t know, Paul O’Neill because, wait, come to think of it Paul O’Neill tended to trot to first when he hit a routine grounder or pop. But he showed his emotions outwardly, punched a water cooler, slammed a bat and so he was The Warrior.
...He is the key guy. Derek Jeter and Ichiro Suzuki are table-setters. Teixeira is out injured. Alex Rodriguez is operating on muscle memory. Curtis Granderson is too hit-and-miss, Nick Swisher too emotionally fragile. Cano is in his prime with an impeccable swing and track record. That has made a contract of $150 million, maybe even $200 million, possible. But he is going to hurt his case with the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately Yankees if he cannot carry them now in this time of need.
“We have 10 games left, which is about 50 at-bats,” Cano said. “You don’t know what can happen in those 50 at-bats. Just look what Ichiro did with his last 50 at-bats.”
Ten games. Fifty at-bats. Sure it would be more aesthetically pleasing to see Cano bust it to first base. But the Yankees need him to drive in runs way more than they need him to run fast.
Repoz
Posted: September 25, 2012 at 06:07 AM |
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1. micker17 Posted: September 25, 2012 at 08:44 AM (#4244930)Robinson Cano may be the most physicaly talented player from the neck down, but every time he nonchalances a ground ball or jogs to first base after an obviously indifferent at bat charade I want to scream. If he's like this now, what happens when Jeter retires and Cano becomes the face of the franchise?
I'd rather sign Josh Hamilton and trade Cano and let Scott Boras score his contract elsewhere.
With his injuries, you don't want Hamilton busting it to first on every grounder either.
Oh, and I'm not giving Cano away. I'd want value back. If the Yankees could get Felix or Price, they should make the deal.
I don't like how extremely streaky he is. When he is "off" he's useless, and stays that way for a long time. Now, you get the benefits when he's hot, but there are two things about it that bother me.
1) The Yankees plan on playing in the post-season every year, and having your best hitter become absolutely useless for two-weeks is just devastating to any post-season chances.
2) His long cold streaks show he doesn't adjust well, mechanically, and/or approach wise to what pitchers are doing. I worry that as he ages, and loses his A quickness and bat speed, he (like every other aging hitter) will need to adjust, and Cano will be bad at it.
6/150 would be my absolute top for Cano. And, I hate giving a 2B that much.
Yes, because great hitters never slump.
2) His long cold streaks show he doesn't adjust well, mechanically, and/or approach wise to what pitchers are doing. I worry that as he ages, and loses his A quickness and bat speed, he (like every other aging hitter) will need to adjust, and Cano will be bad at it.
Good point here as well because he's never shown an ability to adjust his approach.
After Cano's one bad year in 2008, the Yankees hired pain in the ass Larry Bowa in 2009 to "motivate" Cano. I get the feeling that Bowa's sole job description was to walk behind Cano and smack him in the head ever 15 minutes.
Cano is going to get MUCH more than $150. Are you comfortable with that?
You don't think Cano's slump are a little longer/deeper than avg.?
Good point here as well because he's never shown an ability to adjust his approach.
He hasn't seen his physical skills deteriorate yet.
Look, I'm not saying dump the guy, I'm willing to give him the largest deal of any 2B ever.
But, if you give Cano a 8/$200+M deal, in 3 years, it'll look just like the current ARod deal.
I'm not willing to make a judgement on the man's character. You don't get that good by being lazy.
You're going to give a 10 year deal to a 30 y.o. 2B?
Have you seen what's happened to Utley, and ARod?
Edit: I mean, if they're willing to run $250M payrolls, then sure, who cares. But, if this new austerity is real, and the limit is $200M, then that's a disastrous contract.
I'm not saying the Yankees don't need to make a judgement, I'm saying I can't, never having met the man.
No. I don't see why anyone would assume this without actual evidence either. If you have some to present then I stand corrected.
Well, if Hamilton can't play b/c of drugs, you don't have to pay him. But, I wouldn't give either those deals.
I'd rather overpay Swisher than Hamilton.
Isn't best enough to get 9/215? Yeah, he's not that good. There's probably only 5-10 players in MLB I'd give that deal to.
We've just seen what happens when you give a star a ludicrous 10 year deal; doesn't the pale shadow of ARod remind you why it's a terrible idea? And ARod was much, much better than Cano is.
Yankee fans are constantly bemoaning the demise of ARod and Teixeira, and now you want to do that again?!?!
Oof, really? What does "overpaying" Swisher look like in terms of $$$/years? Because to me if the money is even remotely close, you've gotta go with Hamilton. Always bet on the overwhelming talent. Assuming of course you HAVE to sign one or the other.
5/90 for Swisher? I'm thinking Hamilton is closer to 6/150.
Swisher's durable, good defensively, and can also cover 1B pretty well. Plus, he's a goofball that loves the Yankees/NY.
Hamilton should avoid NY like the plague.
I've seen too many 2B who were top-10 talents absolutely crater, to go down that road.
There's a very good chance that in 3 years (2 years into the new deal) Cano is a 120 OPS+ 1B/DH or who struggles to stay healthy.
Again, look at Utley. From ages 26-30 he was a MUCH better player than Cano, and now at 33, the Phillies are lucky to get 400 PAs of 120 OPS+.
That's precisely my concern with signing Cano long term. We've seen quite a few good-to-great 2nd baseman fall off the cliff in their early 30's. If Cano can't play 2nd base or can't maintain his production, the Yankees are stuck with an unmovable contract, this in addition to having both A-Rod and Teixeira on the roster. As a matter of roster construction and flexibility, the Yankees locking in to a guy to a long term contract who turns 31 when the contract starts is startlingly risky. Esp. if there isn't a open spot in the DH slot to cushion the fall. I think it's plausible to package Granderson and Cano this offseason, would the A's give the Yankees 3-5 starters/pitching prospects for a full season of Cano and Granderson and going all in for next year?
Of 145 qualified batters on the Fangraphs leaderboard Cano is 55th in BB%. Yes, some of that is IBBs, but your point is still incorrect in so far as it concerns present-day Robinson Cano. He, unlike many other Yankees, also contributes defensively.
I think I pass on both of those contracts. Swisher's going to be 32 next year, and isn't nearly a good enough player to project well through 37. bWAR hates his defense, and even fWAR, which likes it, has his best season ever as worth 4.1 WAR. Why pay a guy who's upside is 4 wins/year more than Adrian Beltre, a far superior player?
I agree that NYC and Hamilton are probably a really bad fit. Also, Hamilton is not a $30M/year player, at least not to me.
Why are the A's going all-in but the Yankees decide to trade two of the better players on a team that's almost certainly going to win somewhere between 90-95 games and maybe the AL East? That kind of deal is overly fixated on "value" players provide in the WAR/$ sense, ignoring that you can't--to paraphrase someone from the Red Sox trade threads--run a bag of money out at center field and second base.
I've made this point before in a previous Cano thread but it's worth noting that this year Cano's performance has been markedly worse in more important situations. According to Fangraphs's RE24 he's been about 19 runs less valuable when you factor in context (the change in run expectancy in the various base/out situations he's faced).
It is not predictive and it's not a character issue since he was great in more important situations last year, unless he's suffered a decline in character level this year. Character tends to peak in a player's mid-20s I believe. But it does mean that he's been less valuable than his raw numbers show this year, and it also explains why some fans may feel frustrated by him this year.
BRef has him -1, -6, +2 the last 3 yrs. I wouldn't call that "hate". UZR has him +1, +9, +2.
That's pretty silly.
I think you resign Swisher, keep Granderson and Cano, and go for it in 2013.
You re-evaluate after 2013, when you see how much Granderson and Cano are offered.
But the Yanks will sign him because 1) how are they going to replace him and 2) how important is cost savings to them? Overpaying a really good player, for them, is better than sinking out of the playoffs.
Cano's been very durable--no promise this will hold up, of course--and, but for that one year, very consistent. If you can afford to have him at second base, you can spend your time and remaining resources worrying about other problems.
+55 RAR, 5/125 or 7/160 or 9/190 - Cano
+47 RAR, 5/100 or 7/130 - Hamilton
+27 RAR, 3/35 ot 5/50 - Swisher
These are not intelligent projections (it's projected WAR based on a regressed weighted average, with an ultra-simple aging pattern), and I think that the aging curves for all three are too optimistic.
I don't think I'd begrudge 7/150 for Cano, and I could probably talk myself into 9/200 if I were a Yankee fan. He's at least a legitimate superstar talent.
Hamilton's raw projection is somewhat inflated by the use of a 5/4/3/2 weighting, which gives significant weight to his amazing 2010 and no weight to his lost 2009. I wouldn't go 5/100 for Hamilton unless I felt very lucky, and I think folks in this thread are right that he's going to be looking for something much more like 6/150. There's a case to be made for transitioning Hamilton to LF/DH to protect his body and just letting him hit. I could try to talk myself into it if the Sox went after Hamilton, but the risks there are obviously huge.
Going more than $40M for Swisher, on the other hand, is the sort of contract that's likely to bite you on the ass from here to eternity. Unless his market collapses and you can get him at a fair price (3/36 or so), I would stay far away from Swisher.
That's his Rfield, but his dWAR comes in at -0.8, -1.4, and -0.6. Not necessarily awful considering the imprecise nature of evaluating defense, but not great, and worse than UZR. My main point was that even using the defensive metrics most favorable to him, he's just not a great player. The most favorable WAR tally shows him as a solidly above average guy over his age 28-31 seasons, but those kinds of players are not usually the ones you want to sign through age 37.
FWIW, he's also a poster child for old player skills. Slow, doesn't play a premium defensive position, and most of his offensive value comes from home runs and walks.
-0.8 of that is position adj. Anyone who plays RF gets that.
Right, but that's not until 2014.
2013, they can spend what they want.
Yes, exactly. And it counts against his overall value, which is moderate at best. Handing out 5 year FA contracts at market+ value to players in their 30s who are not stars is a lousy strategy.
As far as I've seen, they are still pursuing this plan. They can't keep all three, but it's conceivable they could keep two of them. It was always assumed it'd be Granderson and Cano, but Granderson's been bad enough for long enough this season that they may instead decide to go with Swisher and Cano while picking up Granderson's option for 2013 but letting him walk after that.
But I'm guessing they'll eventually let Swisher and Granderson go, re-sign Cano, move Gardner to CF and try and see what they can do in the OF corners.
And handing out 10 year contracts is far worse.
Swisher's probably worth $15-17M per. I don't mind a small overpay, if you can keep the years short.
This. Swisher will probably only be an asset to a playoff team for another couple of seasons. 4/$50M would be an overpay, 5/$90M would be madness.
What 10 year contracts am I pushing for?
FWar has him at 3.2, 4.1, 3.8, 3.0 (YTD).
I think he's a 3 WAR player, and I think a win is worth more to the Yankees. I'd do 4/60 in a heart beat. I don't like giving the 5th year.
Cano's going to be close to 10, if not 10.
+15 Bat - 2 Run + 1 Def - 8 Pos +21 Rep = +27 RAR
Yeah, I don't think that's a great idea. I like Cano a lot; he's an excellent player and a legitimate star. But he's also not a historic superstar from the A-Rod/Pujols mold, he's entering his 30s, and he's a 2B. Other teams are also aware of this, and I'd be shocked if it took 10 years, or even 9, to sign him.
BtB had a series on hitter volatility last year, and Cano came out almost perfectly average. Personally, I trust this number over what Yankees fans say. Cano is such a lightning rod for criticism when he's playing poorly, so I think fans' eyes and memories exaggerate the depth and length of his slumps.
I also hadn't realized until I looked it up just now that Cano has been bad in his career in high leverage situations. He was quite good in those spots in 2010 and 2011, which is what I must have been remembering, but before then he was terrible, and it seems he's reverted this year. I don't know if there's a good reason for that or not.
This year. Is it more likely that he can suddenly control the strike zone, or that his career high in walks this year tells us nothing predictive about him, and more about the Yankee lineup around him?
or that the career high in HR makes pitchers more careful
You were referencing the slump Cano was presently going through. Why wouldn't his 2012 walk rate be relevant?
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