Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Sherman: Forget hustle, Yankees need Cano’s clutch hitting

As Primer fave Malkmus once said…“I like that Get Hustle. They’re cool live. I haven’t heard their records, though.”

If those writing and/or posting to my e-mail and Twitter accounts are an accurate barometer – and from the insane nature of many of them, please, please let that not be true – then the leading reason why the Yankees have not run away with the AL East is because Robinson Cano will not run quickly to first base.

If only Cano were like, say, I don’t know, Paul O’Neill because, wait, come to think of it Paul O’Neill tended to trot to first when he hit a routine grounder or pop. But he showed his emotions outwardly, punched a water cooler, slammed a bat and so he was The Warrior.

...He is the key guy. Derek Jeter and Ichiro Suzuki are table-setters. Teixeira is out injured. Alex Rodriguez is operating on muscle memory. Curtis Granderson is too hit-and-miss, Nick Swisher too emotionally fragile. Cano is in his prime with an impeccable swing and track record. That has made a contract of $150 million, maybe even $200 million, possible. But he is going to hurt his case with the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately Yankees if he cannot carry them now in this time of need.

“We have 10 games left, which is about 50 at-bats,” Cano said. “You don’t know what can happen in those 50 at-bats. Just look what Ichiro did with his last 50 at-bats.”

Ten games. Fifty at-bats. Sure it would be more aesthetically pleasing to see Cano bust it to first base. But the Yankees need him to drive in runs way more than they need him to run fast.

Repoz Posted: September 25, 2012 at 06:07 AM | 61 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: yankees

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. micker17 Posted: September 25, 2012 at 08:44 AM (#4244930)
Robinson Cano is baseball's version of Carmelo Anthony. Both have Hall of stats. Speaking as a Yankee fan and a Knick fan, I'd say that you actually have to watch the games to appreciate how indifferent they are to winning. Body language, facial gestures and hustle just don't show up in the boxscore. Stats rule, but scouting really does count.

Robinson Cano may be the most physicaly talented player from the neck down, but every time he nonchalances a ground ball or jogs to first base after an obviously indifferent at bat charade I want to scream. If he's like this now, what happens when Jeter retires and Cano becomes the face of the franchise?

I'd rather sign Josh Hamilton and trade Cano and let Scott Boras score his contract elsewhere.
   2. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 25, 2012 at 08:51 AM (#4244934)
Oh for the days when folks who thought like micker actually did run the Yankees.
   3. Best Regards, President of Comfort Posted: September 25, 2012 at 08:59 AM (#4244940)
That was a very good impersonation of a meathead Yankees fan. Good job.
   4. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: September 25, 2012 at 08:59 AM (#4244941)
I'd rather sign Josh Hamilton 6/150

With his injuries, you don't want Hamilton busting it to first on every grounder either.
   5. micker17 Posted: September 25, 2012 at 09:07 AM (#4244947)
Cano is on a HOF and 3,000 hit track. I'm just suggesting that there's more to him than his stats, which are quite impresssive. Boras may get Cano 10/$220, but I'd rather the Yankees spend that $ on a different franchise player.

Oh, and I'm not giving Cano away. I'd want value back. If the Yankees could get Felix or Price, they should make the deal.
   6. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: September 25, 2012 at 09:16 AM (#4244953)
I'd rather sign Josh Hamilton and trade Cano and let Scott Boras score his contract elsewhere.
Alright people, we have our baseline set for "Worst Off Season Idea." Anyone want to top it?
   7. TomH Posted: September 25, 2012 at 09:20 AM (#4244958)
Yanks need a tough guy. Trade a stud for Bobby V.
   8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 25, 2012 at 09:21 AM (#4244959)
I also have concerns about signing Cano long-term, but they have nothing to do with his hustle.

I don't like how extremely streaky he is. When he is "off" he's useless, and stays that way for a long time. Now, you get the benefits when he's hot, but there are two things about it that bother me.

1) The Yankees plan on playing in the post-season every year, and having your best hitter become absolutely useless for two-weeks is just devastating to any post-season chances.

2) His long cold streaks show he doesn't adjust well, mechanically, and/or approach wise to what pitchers are doing. I worry that as he ages, and loses his A quickness and bat speed, he (like every other aging hitter) will need to adjust, and Cano will be bad at it.

6/150 would be my absolute top for Cano. And, I hate giving a 2B that much.
   9. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: September 25, 2012 at 09:24 AM (#4244963)
Comparing Cano to Melo might be one of the dumbest things I've ever seen on this board.
   10. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: September 25, 2012 at 09:26 AM (#4244965)
On slightly related note, unless he signs for way below what it I expect him to get (somewhere in the neighborhood of $120/5), I fully expect whoever ends up with Hamilton is going to be very sorry.
   11. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: September 25, 2012 at 09:26 AM (#4244966)
1) The Yankees plan on playing in the post-season every year, and having your best hitter become absolutely useless for two-weeks is just devastating to any post-season chances.

Yes, because great hitters never slump.

2) His long cold streaks show he doesn't adjust well, mechanically, and/or approach wise to what pitchers are doing. I worry that as he ages, and loses his A quickness and bat speed, he (like every other aging hitter) will need to adjust, and Cano will be bad at it.

Good point here as well because he's never shown an ability to adjust his approach.
   12. micker17 Posted: September 25, 2012 at 09:31 AM (#4244969)
Snapper I agree with you. I'm suggesting that his "failure to adjust" is not a physical issue, but a character issue. His talent allows him to hack away when all is well, but when he goes "off", as you say, he's OFF.

After Cano's one bad year in 2008, the Yankees hired pain in the ass Larry Bowa in 2009 to "motivate" Cano. I get the feeling that Bowa's sole job description was to walk behind Cano and smack him in the head ever 15 minutes.

Cano is going to get MUCH more than $150. Are you comfortable with that?
   13. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 25, 2012 at 09:32 AM (#4244971)
Yes, because great hitters never slump.

You don't think Cano's slump are a little longer/deeper than avg.?


Good point here as well because he's never shown an ability to adjust his approach.


He hasn't seen his physical skills deteriorate yet.

Look, I'm not saying dump the guy, I'm willing to give him the largest deal of any 2B ever.

But, if you give Cano a 8/$200+M deal, in 3 years, it'll look just like the current ARod deal.
   14. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 25, 2012 at 09:34 AM (#4244975)
Snapper I agree with you. I'm suggesting that his "failure to adjust" is not a physical issue, but a character issue. His talent allows him to hack away when all is well, but when he goes "off", as you say, he's OFF.

I'm not willing to make a judgement on the man's character. You don't get that good by being lazy.
   15. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: September 25, 2012 at 09:37 AM (#4244977)
Cano is going to get MUCH more than $150. Are you comfortable with that?
Yes. The Yankees may suffer something of a winner's curse on Cano's deal, but I'd give $225 million to Cano before I'd give even $100 million to Hamilton every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
   16. micker17 Posted: September 25, 2012 at 09:40 AM (#4244979)
Organizations need to make character judgements every day. Prior to draft day in all sports, extensive background checks are done. At this level with this kind of financial committment, of course personality counts.

   17. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 25, 2012 at 09:41 AM (#4244981)
Yes. The Yankees may suffer something of a winner's curse on Cano's deal, but I'd give $225 million to Cano before I'd give even $100 million to Hamilton every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

You're going to give a 10 year deal to a 30 y.o. 2B?

Have you seen what's happened to Utley, and ARod?

Edit: I mean, if they're willing to run $250M payrolls, then sure, who cares. But, if this new austerity is real, and the limit is $200M, then that's a disastrous contract.
   18. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 25, 2012 at 09:42 AM (#4244982)
Organizations need to make character judgements every day. Prior to draft day in all sports, extensive background checks are done. At this level with this kind of financial committment, of course personality counts.

I'm not saying the Yankees don't need to make a judgement, I'm saying I can't, never having met the man.
   19. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: September 25, 2012 at 09:46 AM (#4244987)
You don't think Cano's slump are a little longer/deeper than avg.?

No. I don't see why anyone would assume this without actual evidence either. If you have some to present then I stand corrected.
   20. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: September 25, 2012 at 09:49 AM (#4244994)
You're going to give a 10 year deal to a 30 y.o. 2B?
I think most likely Cano ends up with a deal somewhere like Prince Fielder (9/$214) and yes, I would take that over giving a six or seven year deal to a 32-year old LF with an extensive injury history and a history of substance abuse, including a relapse this past year.
   21. Best Regards, President of Comfort Posted: September 25, 2012 at 09:52 AM (#4244997)
What you all need to understand is that what's wrong with the Yankees is that their best player isn't best enough. And everyone else's best player is bestest. Until he's our best player, then he'll be a letdown, too.
   22. Best Regards, President of Comfort Posted: September 25, 2012 at 09:52 AM (#4245000)
I would say that moving to New York City would be the worst life decision that Josh Hamilton could possibly make at this point, short of actual drug use.
   23. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 25, 2012 at 09:53 AM (#4245001)
I think most likely Cano ends up with a deal somewhere like Prince Fielder (9/$214) and yes, I would take that over giving a six or seven year deal to a 32-year old LF with an extensive injury history and a history of substance abuse, including a relapse this past year.

Well, if Hamilton can't play b/c of drugs, you don't have to pay him. But, I wouldn't give either those deals.

I'd rather overpay Swisher than Hamilton.
   24. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 25, 2012 at 09:56 AM (#4245005)
What you all need to understand is that what's wrong with the Yankees is that their best player isn't best enough.

Isn't best enough to get 9/215? Yeah, he's not that good. There's probably only 5-10 players in MLB I'd give that deal to.

We've just seen what happens when you give a star a ludicrous 10 year deal; doesn't the pale shadow of ARod remind you why it's a terrible idea? And ARod was much, much better than Cano is.

Yankee fans are constantly bemoaning the demise of ARod and Teixeira, and now you want to do that again?!?!
   25. The Good Face Posted: September 25, 2012 at 09:59 AM (#4245009)
I'd rather overpay Swisher than Hamilton.


Oof, really? What does "overpaying" Swisher look like in terms of $$$/years? Because to me if the money is even remotely close, you've gotta go with Hamilton. Always bet on the overwhelming talent. Assuming of course you HAVE to sign one or the other.
   26. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: September 25, 2012 at 10:00 AM (#4245010)
[24] I don't think anyone WANTS to give Cano whatever ridiculous contract he's going to get. The point is that he's one of the 5-10 best players in baseball and he's either going to get a huge contract or the Yankees are going to get worse.
   27. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 25, 2012 at 10:01 AM (#4245012)
Oof, really? What does "overpaying" Swisher look like in terms of $$$/years? Because to me if the money is even remotely close, you've gotta go with Hamilton. Always bet on the overwhelming talent. Assuming of course you HAVE to sign one or the other.

5/90 for Swisher? I'm thinking Hamilton is closer to 6/150.

Swisher's durable, good defensively, and can also cover 1B pretty well. Plus, he's a goofball that loves the Yankees/NY.

Hamilton should avoid NY like the plague.
   28. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 25, 2012 at 10:06 AM (#4245022)
[24] I don't think anyone WANTS to give Cano whatever ridiculous contract he's going to get. The point is that he's one of the 5-10 best players in baseball and he's either going to get a huge contract or the Yankees are going to get worse.

I've seen too many 2B who were top-10 talents absolutely crater, to go down that road.

There's a very good chance that in 3 years (2 years into the new deal) Cano is a 120 OPS+ 1B/DH or who struggles to stay healthy.

Again, look at Utley. From ages 26-30 he was a MUCH better player than Cano, and now at 33, the Phillies are lucky to get 400 PAs of 120 OPS+.
   29. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: September 25, 2012 at 10:07 AM (#4245025)
Cano's OBP is a larger percentage of BA than other hitters. His putrid walk rate and average baserunning means that he is simply not an offensive contributor when he's not hitting the ball.
   30. ??'s Biggest Fan! Posted: September 25, 2012 at 10:21 AM (#4245042)
And, I hate giving a 2B that much.

That's precisely my concern with signing Cano long term. We've seen quite a few good-to-great 2nd baseman fall off the cliff in their early 30's. If Cano can't play 2nd base or can't maintain his production, the Yankees are stuck with an unmovable contract, this in addition to having both A-Rod and Teixeira on the roster. As a matter of roster construction and flexibility, the Yankees locking in to a guy to a long term contract who turns 31 when the contract starts is startlingly risky. Esp. if there isn't a open spot in the DH slot to cushion the fall. I think it's plausible to package Granderson and Cano this offseason, would the A's give the Yankees 3-5 starters/pitching prospects for a full season of Cano and Granderson and going all in for next year?
   31. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: September 25, 2012 at 10:21 AM (#4245043)
Cano's OBP is a larger percentage of BA than other hitters. His putrid walk rate and average baserunning means that he is simply not an offensive contributor when he's not hitting the ball.

Of 145 qualified batters on the Fangraphs leaderboard Cano is 55th in BB%. Yes, some of that is IBBs, but your point is still incorrect in so far as it concerns present-day Robinson Cano. He, unlike many other Yankees, also contributes defensively.
   32. The Good Face Posted: September 25, 2012 at 10:25 AM (#4245047)
5/90 for Swisher? I'm thinking Hamilton is closer to 6/150.

Swisher's durable, good defensively, and can also cover 1B pretty well. Plus, he's a goofball that loves the Yankees/NY.

Hamilton should avoid NY like the plague.


I think I pass on both of those contracts. Swisher's going to be 32 next year, and isn't nearly a good enough player to project well through 37. bWAR hates his defense, and even fWAR, which likes it, has his best season ever as worth 4.1 WAR. Why pay a guy who's upside is 4 wins/year more than Adrian Beltre, a far superior player?

I agree that NYC and Hamilton are probably a really bad fit. Also, Hamilton is not a $30M/year player, at least not to me.
   33. Tippecanoe Posted: September 25, 2012 at 10:25 AM (#4245048)
Also, his overall production is exactly what it is, regardless of whether his slumps are deeper (though we still haven't seen evidence). Is there a reason to believe that players who run hot and cold cost the team wins? I mean, if his slumps are worse than comparable players, then his hot streaks must be better.
   34. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: September 25, 2012 at 10:33 AM (#4245052)
I think it's plausible to package Granderson and Cano this offseason, would the A's give the Yankees 3-5 starters/pitching prospects for a full season of Cano and Granderson and going all in for next year?
I find it incredibly hard to believe that (1) The A's would want to add $24 million in salary for next season and (B) The Yankees would want to gut their team like that.

Why are the A's going all-in but the Yankees decide to trade two of the better players on a team that's almost certainly going to win somewhere between 90-95 games and maybe the AL East? That kind of deal is overly fixated on "value" players provide in the WAR/$ sense, ignoring that you can't--to paraphrase someone from the Red Sox trade threads--run a bag of money out at center field and second base.
   35. SG Posted: September 25, 2012 at 10:37 AM (#4245055)
Also, his overall production is exactly what it is, regardless of whether his slumps are deeper (though we still haven't seen evidence).


I've made this point before in a previous Cano thread but it's worth noting that this year Cano's performance has been markedly worse in more important situations. According to Fangraphs's RE24 he's been about 19 runs less valuable when you factor in context (the change in run expectancy in the various base/out situations he's faced).

It is not predictive and it's not a character issue since he was great in more important situations last year, unless he's suffered a decline in character level this year. Character tends to peak in a player's mid-20s I believe. But it does mean that he's been less valuable than his raw numbers show this year, and it also explains why some fans may feel frustrated by him this year.
   36. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 25, 2012 at 10:37 AM (#4245056)
bWAR hates his defense,

BRef has him -1, -6, +2 the last 3 yrs. I wouldn't call that "hate". UZR has him +1, +9, +2.

   37. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 25, 2012 at 10:41 AM (#4245057)
I think it's plausible to package Granderson and Cano this offseason, would the A's give the Yankees 3-5 starters/pitching prospects for a full season of Cano and Granderson and going all in for next year?

That's pretty silly.

I think you resign Swisher, keep Granderson and Cano, and go for it in 2013.

You re-evaluate after 2013, when you see how much Granderson and Cano are offered.
   38. GregD Posted: September 25, 2012 at 10:46 AM (#4245059)
Who else do you think will be bidding on Cano? That would have a big impact on whether his contract is a lot of money or genuinely insane.

But the Yanks will sign him because 1) how are they going to replace him and 2) how important is cost savings to them? Overpaying a really good player, for them, is better than sinking out of the playoffs.

Cano's been very durable--no promise this will hold up, of course--and, but for that one year, very consistent. If you can afford to have him at second base, you can spend your time and remaining resources worrying about other problems.
   39. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 25, 2012 at 10:52 AM (#4245065)
Dumber-than-Marcel projections for Cano, Swisher, and Hamilton:

+55 RAR, 5/125 or 7/160 or 9/190 - Cano
+47 RAR, 5/100 or 7/130 - Hamilton
+27 RAR, 3/35 ot 5/50 - Swisher

These are not intelligent projections (it's projected WAR based on a regressed weighted average, with an ultra-simple aging pattern), and I think that the aging curves for all three are too optimistic.

I don't think I'd begrudge 7/150 for Cano, and I could probably talk myself into 9/200 if I were a Yankee fan. He's at least a legitimate superstar talent.

Hamilton's raw projection is somewhat inflated by the use of a 5/4/3/2 weighting, which gives significant weight to his amazing 2010 and no weight to his lost 2009. I wouldn't go 5/100 for Hamilton unless I felt very lucky, and I think folks in this thread are right that he's going to be looking for something much more like 6/150. There's a case to be made for transitioning Hamilton to LF/DH to protect his body and just letting him hit. I could try to talk myself into it if the Sox went after Hamilton, but the risks there are obviously huge.

Going more than $40M for Swisher, on the other hand, is the sort of contract that's likely to bite you on the ass from here to eternity. Unless his market collapses and you can get him at a fair price (3/36 or so), I would stay far away from Swisher.
   40. The Good Face Posted: September 25, 2012 at 10:58 AM (#4245072)
bWAR hates his defense,

BRef has him -1, -6, +2 the last 3 yrs. I wouldn't call that "hate". UZR has him +1, +9, +2.


That's his Rfield, but his dWAR comes in at -0.8, -1.4, and -0.6. Not necessarily awful considering the imprecise nature of evaluating defense, but not great, and worse than UZR. My main point was that even using the defensive metrics most favorable to him, he's just not a great player. The most favorable WAR tally shows him as a solidly above average guy over his age 28-31 seasons, but those kinds of players are not usually the ones you want to sign through age 37.

FWIW, he's also a poster child for old player skills. Slow, doesn't play a premium defensive position, and most of his offensive value comes from home runs and walks.
   41. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 25, 2012 at 11:00 AM (#4245076)
That's pretty silly.

I think you resign Swisher, keep Granderson and Cano, and go for it in 2013.

You re-evaluate after 2013, when you see how much Granderson and Cano are offered.
I was under the impression that the Yankees were shooting to get under the luxury tax threshold because of the new "rebate" rules. Are they backing off of this plan, or can they re-sign both Swisher and Cano while picking up Granderson's option, and stay under the luxury tax threshold?
   42. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 25, 2012 at 11:02 AM (#4245078)
That's his Rfield, but his dWAR comes in at -0.8, -1.4, and -0.6.

-0.8 of that is position adj. Anyone who plays RF gets that.
   43. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 25, 2012 at 11:02 AM (#4245079)
I was under the impression that the Yankees were shooting to get under the luxury tax threshold because of the new "rebate" rules. Are they backing off of this plan, or can they re-sign both Swisher and Cano while picking up Granderson's option, and stay under the luxury tax threshold?

Right, but that's not until 2014.

2013, they can spend what they want.
   44. The Good Face Posted: September 25, 2012 at 11:05 AM (#4245081)
That's his Rfield, but his dWAR comes in at -0.8, -1.4, and -0.6.

-0.8 of that is position adj. Anyone who plays RF gets that.


Yes, exactly. And it counts against his overall value, which is moderate at best. Handing out 5 year FA contracts at market+ value to players in their 30s who are not stars is a lousy strategy.
   45. SG Posted: September 25, 2012 at 11:05 AM (#4245082)
Are they backing off of this plan, or can they re-sign both Swisher and Cano while picking up Granderson's option, and stay under the luxury tax threshold?


As far as I've seen, they are still pursuing this plan. They can't keep all three, but it's conceivable they could keep two of them. It was always assumed it'd be Granderson and Cano, but Granderson's been bad enough for long enough this season that they may instead decide to go with Swisher and Cano while picking up Granderson's option for 2013 but letting him walk after that.

But I'm guessing they'll eventually let Swisher and Granderson go, re-sign Cano, move Gardner to CF and try and see what they can do in the OF corners.
   46. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 25, 2012 at 11:06 AM (#4245083)
Yes, exactly. And it counts against his overall value, which is moderate at best. Handing out 5 year FA contracts at market+ value to players in their 30s who are not stars is a lousy strategy.

And handing out 10 year contracts is far worse.

Swisher's probably worth $15-17M per. I don't mind a small overpay, if you can keep the years short.
   47. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 25, 2012 at 11:08 AM (#4245084)
Swisher's probably worth $15-17M per.
Swisher doesn't project as 3-WAR player next year. And then he's going to be turning 33 and 34. He's worth $12M per season, and then only over a relatively short contract.
   48. The Good Face Posted: September 25, 2012 at 11:13 AM (#4245088)
Swisher's probably worth $15-17M per.

Swisher doesn't project as 3-WAR player next year. And then he's going to be turning 33 and 34. He's worth $12M per season, and then only over a relatively short contract.


This. Swisher will probably only be an asset to a playoff team for another couple of seasons. 4/$50M would be an overpay, 5/$90M would be madness.

And handing out 10 year contracts is far worse.


What 10 year contracts am I pushing for?
   49. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 25, 2012 at 11:16 AM (#4245096)
Swisher doesn't project as 3-WAR player next year. And then he's going to be turning 33 and 34. He's worth $12M per season, and then only over a relatively short contract.

FWar has him at 3.2, 4.1, 3.8, 3.0 (YTD).

I think he's a 3 WAR player, and I think a win is worth more to the Yankees. I'd do 4/60 in a heart beat. I don't like giving the 5th year.
   50. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 25, 2012 at 11:17 AM (#4245098)
What 10 year contracts am I pushing for?

Cano's going to be close to 10, if not 10.
   51. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 25, 2012 at 11:19 AM (#4245099)
FWar has him at 3.2, 4.1, 3.8, 3.0 (YTD).
Yes, and a regressed, weighted average of fWAR and bWAR projects Swisher to:

+15 Bat - 2 Run + 1 Def - 8 Pos +21 Rep = +27 RAR
   52. GregD Posted: September 25, 2012 at 11:22 AM (#4245101)
But I'm guessing they'll eventually let Swisher and Granderson go, re-sign Cano, move Gardner to CF and try and see what they can do in the OF corners.
I would bet on this. The Yanks have crazily overspent but not in the outfield corners; I think they have a basic sense of where talent is wide and where it's narrow. I may not like all their moves, but spending on 2nd, SS, and 3B has some logic, as did paying Posada when he was passable. If you're paying a lot for a LF, he better be ridiculous.
   53. SG Posted: September 25, 2012 at 11:22 AM (#4245102)
Even if Swisher's a 3 WAR player next year, you have to generally assume a 0.5 win decline per season for a player in their 30s. So you're either signing him for 4 years and 9 WAR or 5 years and 10 WAR. He's probably not going to be worth anything close to $15M a year. More like $10-12M.
   54. The Good Face Posted: September 25, 2012 at 11:25 AM (#4245105)
What 10 year contracts am I pushing for?

Cano's going to be close to 10, if not 10.


Yeah, I don't think that's a great idea. I like Cano a lot; he's an excellent player and a legitimate star. But he's also not a historic superstar from the A-Rod/Pujols mold, he's entering his 30s, and he's a 2B. Other teams are also aware of this, and I'd be shocked if it took 10 years, or even 9, to sign him.
   55. Austin Posted: September 25, 2012 at 12:48 PM (#4245222)
I don't like how extremely streaky he is. When he is "off" he's useless, and stays that way for a long time. Now, you get the benefits when he's hot, but there are two things about it that bother me.


BtB had a series on hitter volatility last year, and Cano came out almost perfectly average. Personally, I trust this number over what Yankees fans say. Cano is such a lightning rod for criticism when he's playing poorly, so I think fans' eyes and memories exaggerate the depth and length of his slumps.

I also hadn't realized until I looked it up just now that Cano has been bad in his career in high leverage situations. He was quite good in those spots in 2010 and 2011, which is what I must have been remembering, but before then he was terrible, and it seems he's reverted this year. I don't know if there's a good reason for that or not.
   56. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 25, 2012 at 01:07 PM (#4245241)
55 - He discarded his blinders so he now can see the men on the basepaths.
   57. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: September 25, 2012 at 02:00 PM (#4245309)
Of 145 qualified batters on the Fangraphs leaderboard Cano is 55th in BB%.


This year. Is it more likely that he can suddenly control the strike zone, or that his career high in walks this year tells us nothing predictive about him, and more about the Yankee lineup around him?
   58. TomH Posted: September 25, 2012 at 03:54 PM (#4245446)
or that like some other players, he is grsadually increasing his BB rate, and this year like 2010 is a small uptick.
or that the career high in HR makes pitchers more careful
   59. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 25, 2012 at 04:10 PM (#4245468)
Hard to see Cano going any place. It's not easy to find his level of production, offensively and defensively, at 2nd base. He could hustle a bit more, but that isn't a reason not to pay the market rate to retain him.
   60. Walt Davis Posted: September 25, 2012 at 06:21 PM (#4245636)
The FA market price of a win is about to go through the roof (it may have already) so the numbers you guys are throwing around are obsolete.




   61. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: October 02, 2012 at 11:02 AM (#4250924)
This year. Is it more likely that he can suddenly control the strike zone, or that his career high in walks this year tells us nothing predictive about him, and more about the Yankee lineup around him?

You were referencing the slump Cano was presently going through. Why wouldn't his 2012 walk rate be relevant?

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Dingbat_Charlie
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogIvan Nova’s season in jeopardy after tearing elbow ligament
(3 - 12:58am, Apr 21)
Last: Shoebo

NewsblogOT: NBA Monthly Thread - April 2014
(381 - 12:55am, Apr 21)
Last: Tom Cervo, backup catcher

NewsblogVIDEO: Brewers, Pirates brawl after Carlos Gomez triple
(81 - 12:45am, Apr 21)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogOT: The NHL is finally back thread, part 2
(161 - 12:38am, Apr 21)
Last: Shredder

NewsblogZander Hollander, Sports Trivia Shepherd, Dies at 91
(11 - 12:21am, Apr 21)
Last: puck

NewsblogDoug Glanville: I Was Racially Profiled in My Own Driveway
(409 - 12:18am, Apr 21)
Last: Morty Causa

NewsblogDaniel Bryan's 'YES!' chant has spread to the Pirates' dugout
(132 - 12:15am, Apr 21)
Last: Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016

NewsblogBryce Harper benched for 'lack of hustle' despite quad injury
(101 - 11:50pm, Apr 20)
Last: Lassus

NewsblogChase Utley is the hottest hitter in baseball and has a shot at .400
(72 - 11:39pm, Apr 20)
Last: Lassus

NewsblogOMNICHATTER for April 20, 2014
(94 - 11:35pm, Apr 20)
Last: Dale Sams

NewsblogOT: The Soccer Thread March, 2014
(952 - 11:01pm, Apr 20)
Last: Jose Can Still Seabiscuit

NewsblogPirates Acquire Ike Davis From Mets
(54 - 9:15pm, Apr 20)
Last: Canker Soriano

NewsblogMinuteman News Center: Giandurco: This means WAR
(95 - 9:05pm, Apr 20)
Last: BDC

NewsblogJohn Torres: Baseball must bag sickening farewell tours
(50 - 8:43pm, Apr 20)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogChris Resop - The Most Interesting Reliever in the World
(22 - 8:13pm, Apr 20)
Last: CrosbyBird

Demarini, Easton and TPX Baseball Bats

 

 

 

 

Page rendered in 0.6986 seconds
52 querie(s) executed