“Our offense is fine, it doesn’t make any sense to allocate more dollars and risk there,” another official said. “Even if we lose CC [Sabathia], what sense would it make to spend the money on more offense when what we need would be starting pitching.”
In fact, despite all of the over-heated speculation about what the Yankees will do this offseason, a combination of reporting and instinct leads me to think they are going to push hard to retain Sabathia then do little beyond supplementary stuff. Believe me, as the baseball columnist for the New York Post, I wish I could tell you the Yankees’ plans were to do an Occupy Wall Street-like vigil outside the Mariners’ offices until Seattle capitulates and finally trades Felix Hernandez.
Or that some brilliant Yankees mind noticed that Mark Teixeira played 15 games at third base in 2003, instigating a domino effect in which he moved back to the hot corner, Rodriguez became the full-time DH and the Yankees signed Albert Pujols to play first base.
...The other obvious area in which the Yankees can get better internally is with a return to 30-100 land by A-Rod. He is 36, just had a career-worst season and you wonder about the lingering impact of steroid use: Can he not perform at a high level at this age without illegal performance enhancers or is his body deteriorating quicker because of past use?
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1. TerpNats Posted: October 16, 2011 at 12:51 PM (#3965157)See, it's things like that, that makes so many of us hate the Yankees. Like it is their right to be able to take the best players from other teams. And when teams refuse to do so, they are the bad guys and are hurting baseball.
With that said, I still wish Seattle had traded Cliff Lee to New York instead of Texas. I wanted Montero more than Smoak. But maybe it kept the Yankees from winning the Series in 2010, and if that was the case, it was a good trade.
C: Montero, club's best prospect, plays C
1B: Teixeira, 6.5 WAR last two years, under contract through 2016 for $115M
2B: Cano, 10.9 WAR last two years, under contract through 2013 for $29M
SS: Jeter, 2.0 WAR last two years, under contract through 2013 for $33M
3B: Rodriguez, 5.9 WAR last two years, under contract through 2017 for $144M
LF: Gardner, 9.6 WAR last two years, under arbitration control through 2014
CF: Granderson, 8.0 WAR last two years, under contract through 2013 for $23M
RF: Swisher, 7.7 WAR last two years, under contract through 2012 for $10M
DH: Montero, club's best prospect, plays DH if he can't catch
Basically, the Yankees could add a C or a DH, but they have eight slots in the batting order locked in, and the scored lots and lots of runs last year. Obviously their offseason will be focused on pitching.
Did anybody really believe Lee was going to be a Phillie this year?
EDIT: For example, is it unrealistic that Nolan Ryan, coming off a WS victory/loss, will offer CC $144-50M/6 to replace CJ?
That might not be unrealistic, but it would be rather unrealistic that the Yankees wouldn't crush that bid. Nobody said CC was going to be cheap to get for the Yankees.
You heard it here first: Sabathia will sign with the Phillies, who are the dark horse in the Sabathia sweepstakes.
Halladay
Sabathia
Lee
Oswalt
Hamels
hmmm....not bad...they should contend.
Sabathia
Lee
Oswalt
Hamels
hmmm....not bad...they should contend.
Well, it might at least stop them from continuing down the path they've taken since 2008, from WS winner to WS loser to LCS loser to WC loser to.....1964.....1961.....death.
Martin is still under arb control.
There's this new-fangled strategy teams are rumored to be trying out this winter ... it's called "trading." The way it works is, you take one or more of your players, and you offer them up to the GM on another team, and see if maybe he'll give you some of the players on his team in exchange! It could real spice up the winter if it catches on!
I jest, obviously -- because I actually agree with you the Yankees are going to stand pat with their line-up. But I could see them at least exploring the idea of seeing what Gardner might bring back by way of pitching help, and then maybe making a run at a FA outfielder. The very fact that Gardner is cheap makes him attractive, and relatively even more attractive to most other teams who have actual meaningful budgets than the Yankees.
It's an option, anyway.
It's an option, anyway.
The last thing they need to be doing is trading away one of their younger players. Also, the way Gardner produces his value will very likely cause him to be undervalued in the trade market.
A much better idea is swapping Gardner's and Granderson's positions in the OF.
Yeah, no way Gardner brings back anything near the value the Yankees receive from him, his baseball card stats look lousy and I doubt GM's are going to pony up for outfield defense. The Yankees would probably get a better return by picking up Nick Swisher's option and shopping him instead.
Perhaps, but OTOH he's cheap, and that has value, too. My guess is that the Yankees could probably get a good, but higher-priced, starting pitcher for Gardner.
They need cheap production somewhere too. In case no one has noticed, the Yankees show no inclination to raise payroll above the $200-210M range.
Rather than trade Gardner for an expensive SP and sign Beltran, they'd be better off just overpaying CJ Wilson. The combined price of Beltran + SP is almost certain to be >$20M. Just give Wilson the $20M and keep Gardner.
It is almost never worthwhile for the Yankees to trade cheap MBL talent for expensive MLB talent (a pure salary dump is different). Why give up talent and $$ when you can just spend $$?
Correct. Wandy is good, but if you're going to be paying him $13M, and then Beltran $12M to replace Gardner, just give CJ Wilson 5/100 or 6/120 and move on.
Your team is cheaper and better.
Carlos Zambrano for Brett Gardner. And we'll even spare you the trouble of having to buy a free-agent replacement for Gardner by throwing in Alfonso Soriano.
Posting fee doesn't count against the Tax, he doesn't cost a draft pick and his yearly salary will certainly be lower as well.
Plus, he's got a legendary nickname, "The Hurling Darvish" already waiting for him ...
I think you're right. I am recalling Maddux as the last guy who spurned them when they were clearly going all out for him. I think he took less money/years from Atlanta.
I'm all in on Darvish. After CC I think he should be their #1 target.
Posting fee doesn't count against the Tax, he doesn't cost a draft pick and his yearly salary will certainly be lower as well.
Makes sense to me.
also, if i'm not mistaken (and i may be a bit out of date with this), i thought darvish has stated in the past that he has no desire to play in america.
Gardner + Betances or something like that might get it done.
29--yeah, good point; he'd do better in a more cosmopolitan town like Philly...
I think you just took the Marcels and changed the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make Yu Darvish look better.
I absolutely love this idea! I'm sure that Mark will get the hang of third base this time around at 32 years old. I'm sure there's a ton of success stories like this; 23 year old rookie is so brutal at third base he needs to be moved to first, figures it out nine years later.
What makes you think you'd need to give up Gardner to get Wandy? If you're willing to pay the salary, I don't think you'd have to give up a meaningful player. In fact, I'm not sure why the Yankees didn't do this a couple months ago.
Welp, Youkilis did of course move to 3B this year at a similar age to accommodate Adrian Gonzalez, and there has been some crazy talk in Sox Therapy about the Red Sox signing Pujols.
Of course, Youk had been a decent defensive 3B and neither of these teams is signing Pujols, so, yeah.
The argument was trade Gardner for a good, but expensive SP. Someone mentioned Wandy, so just used him as an example.
If you can get Wandy for a B prospect, I'd certainly do that rather than give CJ Wilson a truckload of cash.
Of course you would, because it would be a horrible deal for the Astros. They're better off keeping him and taking the picks when he walks...
Not when you count the $25.5M saved. But it could be a B and a B-. That's better than the picks, plus they get the money.
That seems like too little to me, but if Cain can be had without giving up Montero Yankees should go for it.
Danks would be a great target too, and I wouldn't hesitate to deal Betances+ for him.
But you're ignoring the 2 years they get in return now, plus the value of the team option. The Astros signed the deal in January, and he he hasn't done anything that should make them regret signing that deal. If they weren't comfortable with paying him the high bucks at the end of the deal, they could have just gone y-t-y for a lower AV.
Giants are not in the market for Montero. They have Posey at C and Belt at 1b. Cain is available because the Giants do not have money for Lincecum and Cain both, and Cain is most likely gone after this year anyways. Plus, Sabes loves speed/base stealing guys at the top of the order.
For what it's worth, I am a Giants fan.
I would.
Sanchez? Yeah, I'd deal Sanchez. No way I'm touching Montero, Betances or Banuelos for Danks.
The Yankees have the pieces to do the deal without touching any of them ...
What's the most a GM would give up for Gardner in a straight trade? He's a 4.4 bWAR player this year and 5.2 last year based largely on defense and baserunning. You look at the pitchers who provided similar values over that period and they're names like Lester, Price, Wilson, Cain, and I can't imagine any GM sending one of those guys in a trade for Gardner straight-up.
If you believe the defensive metrics Gardner provides far more value to the Yankees than anything they'd be able to get back for him in a trade unless the Yankees went the lottery route and got back someone like Aroldis Chapman instead of a proven front-of-rotation starter (presuming that the Yankees would be asking for starting pitching in exchange for Gardner, which I think is a pretty safe bet). I think that if Mr. Cashman really went around the league offering up Brett Gardner for pitching the best offer he'd get would be someone along the lines of Wandy Rodriguez or Matt Garza. The Yankees almost certainly value Gardner above that - and he's cheap to boot.
Switch GGBG and Granderson in the OF next year and you're likely getting even more from both of them ...
They're in full salary shed mode. If they liked the contract, why they'd try to trade him this summer?
If they want immediate help, I'd offer Noesi and Nunez.
Yes, and Cliff Lee pitched for the Yankees in 2011.
EDIT: Drinks all around.
Because they think his contract had trade value, and they need to rebuild their system. The fact that he stayed in Houston tells you more about what they think about his contract than shopping it does. If they were willing to settle for a B, he wouldn't still be in Houston.
I'd say that whatever we think the Astros appeared to say about Rodriguez's contract in 2011 has almost NOTHING to say about what the Astros will think about Rodriguez's contact in 2012.
Unless, of course, the change in ownership fails to go through ...
I'm not a big fan of Betances. He still has awful command, and I expect if he makes it it will be as a reliever.
I still think Betances is too little, but Yankees could swap in Banuelos (though I would want an extension with Cain) or add another good prospect like Sanchez (catcher now but good chance he ends up elsewhere).
Trading Cain could make sense for the Giants from a pure baseball perspective. The Giants have a lot of starting pitching depth, right? And they're pretty weak on the hitting-the-ball side of things. So trading from their area of depth (starting pitching) to shore up their weakness (hitting) could make a lot of sense. Really quick and dirty: Gardner's been just under a 5 WAR guy for the last two years (per BB-Ref) and Cain's been about a 4 WAR guy. A straight Cain-for-Gardner could be a "win" for the Giants that the Yankees might be willing to do if they think they can just buy the extra WAR on the free-agent market.
Wait, why? A 5 WAR guy making nothing for a 4 WAR guy making $15-20M, and then more money to replace Gardner. That makes the Yankees worse, not better.
There are no good FA OF's. Beltran's the best, but he makes the Yankees older, more brittle, and much worse on D.
Again, just sign CJ Wilson. Trade Noesi and Romine for Wandy Rodriguez. Hell, signing Edwin Jackson is a better idea. Posting $60M for Yu Darvish is a way better idea.
These ideas to trade Gardner seem to be from non-Yankee fans who want them to get worse.
I was thinking more theoretically. That's certainly not a trade that I'd offer if I was Cashman. It was more a response to the idea that trading Cain would be a terrible thing for the Giants and obvious evidence that they're cheap bastards. I just mentioned Gardner because he was on topic here. In theory, if it was cheaper to get FA OF and Cain than Gardner and FA SP, the Yankees might want to make that trade. If Sabathia resigns with the Yankees fairly quickly, that leaves C.J. Wilson as by far the best FA SP, in which case, he could get really expensive, really quickly. If other teams shy away from Beltran because of age/injury concerns, maybe he ends up being cheap enough that such a swap makes sense.
But, no, I'm not a Yankees fan and have no particular interest in seeing them get better next year.
But, no, I'm not a Yankees fan and have no particular interest in seeing them get better next year.
Understood. At least your honest :-)
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