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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Not that there was much question anyway, but the Rays have already informed RHP James Shields they are picking up his $10.25-million option for next season, agent Page Odle said today.
Jim Furtado
Posted: October 31, 2012 at 09:53 AM | 7 comment(s)
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1. Mike Emeigh-- MWE
Assuming Jennings moves over to CF, they need to find production at LF, 1B, and DH. Which basically means they just need to get the best hitters they can dredge up, with little or no worries about defense. Plus Zobrist can be put anywhere, so if a new SS somehow falls in their lap they can do almost anything they want in the offseason. As problems go, they don't have problems.
(Oh, their catching sucks, but most MLB catching sucks right now.)
Doesn't Mike Napoli make a ton of sense for them? Are they going to spend any money?
Depends on the money yeah? And whether the Rays still believe in the uber-value of catcher defense, pitch-framing, etc ... and how Napoli ranks on the fancy measures which I really have no idea.
I find Napoli a hard guy to price:
1. Just how good of a hitter is he? Take his last 4 years and it's a 129 OPS+ which is really nice. His Marcel is a bit higher. But that's largely influenced by his insane 2011. Toss that out (obvious issues) and he's a 115 OPS+.
2. Obviously a 115 OPS+ (or better) plays great at C but it's underwhelming for 1B/DH so now we have to decide how good his C defense is and his injury history and ...
3. Even if we decide he can catch well enough, we can't help but notice that he has never had more than 82 starts and usually about 70 (partly related to injuries). Are we talking 70 starts at C and 60 starts at 1B/DH?
Simplify it all by looking at WAR but it's the same problem. He has 11.1 WAR over the last 4 years but again heavily influenced by 2011. Is he a 2 WAR, 2.5 WAR or 3 WAR player? Somewhere around 3/$40 is a tough over/under for Napoli.
Tampa has a ton of pitching depth, and they could very well roll the dice on trading Shields for offensive help.
-- MWE
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