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Friday, December 08, 2017

Shohei Ohtani agrees to deal with Angels | Los Angeles Angels

An unexpected winner.

Jim Furtado Posted: December 08, 2017 at 02:40 PM | 60 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: angels, shohei ohtani

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   1. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: December 08, 2017 at 02:43 PM (#5588905)
Wow. Good for the Angels.
   2. Brian Posted: December 08, 2017 at 02:43 PM (#5588906)
Smart move. With the Angels he can pitch and play any position other than CF and shortstop.
   3. Greg Pope Posted: December 08, 2017 at 02:43 PM (#5588909)
Also, from Rotoworld:


Buster Olney of ESPN reports that teams are expecting scrutiny from Commissioner Rob Manfred and MLB officials involving possible infractions no matter what team Shohei Ohtani chooses to sign with.

Teams were warned by Manfred that they could only use the merits of the club to try and convince Ohtani to sign, and that no promises could be made about future contracts or any other financial business partnership. An unnamed source tells Olney that Manfred has given the issue an "unprecedented" amount of attention, knowing that there are several avenues teams could try and exploit to procure his services. This comes a few weeks after the unrivaled penalty Atlanta received that saw the loss of prospects and the banning of former General Manager John Coppolella. For whatever the reasons may be, it appears baseball is serious about keeping the international shenanigans out of the game.
   4. jmurph Posted: December 08, 2017 at 02:52 PM (#5588919)
I admittedly haven't paid much attention to the Angels in recent years, but is Scioscia not among the least creative managers in the game? Is that not a thing anymore (or was that always an unfair characterization)?
   5. charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: December 08, 2017 at 02:56 PM (#5588922)
I hate to say this, but he may add value to the Angels as a hitter simply by taking at bats away from Pujols.
   6. Rally Posted: December 08, 2017 at 02:59 PM (#5588925)
I'll give Scioscia the benefit of the doubt here and assume he'll figure out a way to get Ohtani some DH at bats between starts. It's not like this situation comes up all that often. Last Angel manager to deal with a 2 way player was Bill Rigney back in 1964.
   7. RMc Has Bizarre Ideas to Fix Baseball Posted: December 08, 2017 at 03:17 PM (#5588947)
The most recent stories on my MLB.com newsfeed:

"Shohei Ohtani agrees to sign with Los Angeles Angels"

"Tigers sign veteran right-hander Mike Fiers"

I hate my life.
   8. Greg Pope Posted: December 08, 2017 at 03:19 PM (#5588950)
I'll give Scioscia the benefit of the doubt here and assume he'll figure out a way to get Ohtani some DH at bats between starts.

I'd assume that it's all been worked out already. The team has most likely agreed to give him a certain number of starts at DH every week. Or something like that. I don't think Scioscia is going to have to do much thinking on this one.
   9. Greg K Posted: December 08, 2017 at 03:21 PM (#5588953)
Heh, I just watched the Mad Men episode where the Honda guys shop around a bunch of ad agencies by giving them strict rules everyone has to follow in their pitch.
   10. Endless Trash Posted: December 08, 2017 at 03:22 PM (#5588955)
This is one of the most exciting things that has happened in baseball in the last ten years. I am not an angels fan but I am so excited about this. Such an interesting couple weeks and the next season should be a lot of fun. I can't wait for the season to start.
   11. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: December 08, 2017 at 03:31 PM (#5588964)
So lets say Ohtani turns out to be as good as anyone could hope, and he's a 10 WAR pitcher/hitter. Is that enough to drag the Angels to the playoffs alongside Trout?
   12. Randomly Fluctuating Defensive Metric Posted: December 08, 2017 at 03:32 PM (#5588967)
This is one of the most exciting things that has happened in baseball in the last ten years. I am not an angels fan but I am so excited about this. Such an interesting couple weeks and the next season should be a lot of fun. I can't wait for the season to start.


Very much seconded, even as a Yankee fan who would have loved to see Ohtani on a daily basis. A part of me does feel that this experiment best play out in a less intense environment.
   13. Stormy JE Posted: December 08, 2017 at 03:37 PM (#5588972)
So lets say Ohtani turns out to be as good as anyone could hope, and he's a 10 WAR pitcher/hitter. Is that enough to drag the Angels to the playoffs alongside Trout?
More precisely: Does this mean Scioscia will be managing the Angels to 80-87-win seasons for another dozen years?
   14. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 08, 2017 at 03:42 PM (#5588982)
I hate to say this, but he may add value to the Angels as a hitter simply by taking at bats away from Pujols.

It's a bit strange that Ohtani went for the DH league but chose a team without an open DH slot. That seems to reinforce the idea that non-baseball lifestyle options were his prime factors. The Angels were 21 games back last season. That's a lot to make up even with a full-season of healthy Mike Trout, & Ohtani contributing in dual roles, but people will certainly watch.
   15. billyshears Posted: December 08, 2017 at 03:50 PM (#5588993)
The Angels are about the least annoying team Ohtani could have signed with.
   16. Astroenteritis Posted: December 08, 2017 at 04:01 PM (#5589000)
Somehow I knew he'd end up in the AL West. At least I'll get a chance to see him in person with the Angels in Houston regularly. It should be really fun to see how the Angels use him, and how he does attempting to pitch and play the field. One more thing to look forward to next year!
   17. Khrushin it bro Posted: December 08, 2017 at 04:05 PM (#5589001)
He was never signing with the A's, at least I can watch him play since I live in Southern California where the Angels are on TV locally.
   18. Random Transaction Generator Posted: December 08, 2017 at 04:08 PM (#5589005)
As someone online already said:

"This is the most Mariners thing since the last Mariners thing."

The Angels are about the least annoying team Ohtani could have signed with.


Padres would have been the most "meh" landing spot.
   19. Khrushin it bro Posted: December 08, 2017 at 04:26 PM (#5589020)
Ohtani must like fires (I've got the lights on and am working from home since it's snowing ash in Santa Barbara)
   20. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: December 08, 2017 at 04:30 PM (#5589021)
Best of luck to Mr. Ohtani, who has accepted a great deal of risk and pressure in order to pursue his dreams. I wish him great success in MLB and hope he inspires a new generation of players to emulate his historic efforts at pitching and hitting. Thus far I really appreciate the respectful way he's conducted his search and decision-making process.
   21. charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: December 08, 2017 at 04:47 PM (#5589029)
IF Garret Richards can stay healthy (big if, giant if, enormous if) a Richards/Ohtani 1-2 punch looks pretty good. I think they're an 85 win team now. On the cusp. But they could still sign Moustakis or another impact bat. They could end up as wild card favorites.
   22. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: December 08, 2017 at 04:48 PM (#5589030)
"This is the most Mariners thing since the last Mariners thing."


Actual post on LL:

"I don't see why anybody would blame Dipoto when it was obviously impossible to read the mind of Ohtani".

Well, maybe if it was impossible to read his mind then don't make a series of desperation moves as if you could.

The process was bad, the result was bad. Double whammy.
   23. Man o' Schwar Posted: December 08, 2017 at 05:09 PM (#5589039)
"I don't see why anybody would blame Dipoto when it was obviously impossible to read the mind of Ohtani".

Well, maybe if it was impossible to read his mind then don't make a series of desperation moves as if you could.

The process was bad, the result was bad. Double whammy.


But if you're Dipoto and you do nothing, and Ohtani signs elsewhere, then the fanbase rakes you over the coals for not going for it to sign a possible generational talent.

I'd rather have a GM that tried to bet big than one who sat there and just hoped it would all work out.
   24. Greg Pope Posted: December 08, 2017 at 05:14 PM (#5589041)
How will his WAR be calculated? Specifically, what's used for replacement level? I admit that I don't know how WAR works with a player who plays multiple positions.
   25. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: December 08, 2017 at 05:14 PM (#5589042)
I guess I'm an Angels fan now. Trout and Ohtani have got to be the most exciting pair of players on a single team.
   26. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: December 08, 2017 at 05:20 PM (#5589046)
I don't follow the Mariners at all but what was bad about the process? Have they given up any players or money that would be meaningfully useful trying to have the chance to sign Ohtani. It's not like they let another big name FA get away to put their eggs in the Ohtani basket. They still can sign J.D. Martinez or Jake Arrieta.
   27. asinwreck Posted: December 08, 2017 at 05:29 PM (#5589048)
Merry Christmas, Mike Trout.
   28. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: December 08, 2017 at 05:36 PM (#5589053)
I'm obviously excited by the signing. I was pleasantly surprised the Angels made the final cut, but had fully expected Ohtani to sign with Seattle. The upside to signing a 23-year-old talent to a league minimum contract with years of team control is obvious.

Beyond that, I'm just beyond thrilled that the Angels actually have someone that will bring (for now) positive attention to the team. For years, any national discussion around the Angels has been about how they're wasting Mike Trout and how awful Albert Pujols has been. It's awfully depressing, especially When the team just up the freeway is the Dodgers. This is the most exciting signing in Anaheim since Vlad, and the team had a few nice years after that. Hopefully, this one will pan out just as well. I'M SO FREAKING EXCITED!!!
   29. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 08, 2017 at 05:37 PM (#5589054)
NNNNNNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
   30. KronicFatigue Posted: December 08, 2017 at 05:40 PM (#5589057)
How will his WAR be calculated? Specifically, what's used for replacement level? I admit that I don't know how WAR works with a player who plays multiple positions.


Wouldn't the simplest solution be to treat him like two separate players and then add? This would slightly undervalue him b/c he's saving a roster spot in theory.
   31. eric Posted: December 08, 2017 at 05:43 PM (#5589059)
It's a bit strange that Ohtani went for the DH league but chose a team without an open DH slot. That seems to reinforce the idea that non-baseball lifestyle options were his prime factors.


Maybe they figure Ohtani can play RF? I assume LF and CF are out, as would be any IF position.

Or, perhaps they think they have a solution to Pujols, even if it's just releasing him? Or converting him to a $30MM/yr platoon DH with an 80 OPS+...
   32. bunyon Posted: December 08, 2017 at 05:50 PM (#5589066)
Sciosia: Look, Albert, all our DHs have to pitch one game per week now. It's just how we do things.
   33. Random Transaction Generator Posted: December 08, 2017 at 06:25 PM (#5589079)
I don't follow the Mariners at all but what was bad about the process? Have they given up any players or money that would be meaningfully useful trying to have the chance to sign Ohtani.


I think the idea is that the Mariners took on Dee Gordon's big contract (and real lack of position to play) to also get the $1million extra pool money, and gave up 3 prospects as well. The pool money put them at the top of the list for available funds for Ohtani (ahead of the Rangers).

Now that they don't get Ohtani (and a couple of the prime Braves prospects have already been snatched up), some people think the Mariners are in a worse position than when they started.
   34. RMc Has Bizarre Ideas to Fix Baseball Posted: December 08, 2017 at 06:51 PM (#5589087)
Trout and Ohtani have got to be the most exciting pair of players on a single team.

At least until they crash into each other and suffer career-ending injuries.
   35. Khrushin it bro Posted: December 08, 2017 at 07:03 PM (#5589092)
How dare Ohtani forgo extra money AND not go to the Yankees???!!11!

Is this the right thread for this?
   36. JJ1986 Posted: December 08, 2017 at 08:15 PM (#5589104)
It's a bit strange that Ohtani went for the DH league but chose a team without an open DH slot. That seems to reinforce the idea that non-baseball lifestyle options were his prime factors. The Angels were 21 games back last season. That's a lot to make up even with a full-season of healthy Mike Trout, & Ohtani contributing in dual roles, but people will certainly watch.
Must you be such a vermicious knid?
   37. Charlie Gibbs Fracture Zone Posted: December 08, 2017 at 08:40 PM (#5589116)
Scram.
   38. ReggieThomasLives Posted: December 08, 2017 at 09:44 PM (#5589134)
How long till Pujols is 86d?
   39. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: December 08, 2017 at 10:19 PM (#5589140)

At least until they crash into each other and suffer career-ending injuries.

If I were the Angels, I would be teaching Trout how to say "I got it" in Japanese right about now...
   40. Hank Gillette Posted: December 08, 2017 at 11:43 PM (#5589147)
I think they're an 85 win team now.


They could add a couple of more wins by releasing Pujols.
   41. Shredder Posted: December 09, 2017 at 12:40 AM (#5589152)
I think they're an 85 win team now.
I think they were an 85 win team with the upgrade to the rotation and left field before the Ohtani signing. The rotation is fragile, but add 50 starts from Richards and Heaney, and 20 from Skaggs and Shoemaker, and that's a big upgrade, but not one I'd bet my house on.

As to Pujols, no one is expecting a big bounce back, but he is actually working out right now, and this the first year in a while where he will actually go through a mostly full spring training. So either he a) finally gets a full March to prepare for the season, or b) gets hurt in March. Either of those are probably positives for the Angels. Sure, I'm a bright-sider, but there were a lot of reasons to be cautiously optimistic before signing Ohtani. This is just gravy.
   42. shoewizard Posted: December 09, 2017 at 09:01 AM (#5589175)
Just reading a tweet from Olberman, and I'm sure someone here has pointed it out, but even Babe Ruth abandoned being a two way player after only 2 years.

   43. Barnaby Jones Posted: December 09, 2017 at 09:20 AM (#5589185)
How will his WAR be calculated? Specifically, what's used for replacement level? I admit that I don't know how WAR works with a player who plays multiple positions.


On B-R, pitchers already get WAR credit for their hitting. The replacement level is so low that it never really hurts any of them, but good hitters definitely benefit. For example, Tom Glavine:

Pitching WAR: 74
Hitting WAR: 7.5
WAR at the top of the page: 81.5
   44. A triple short of the cycle Posted: December 09, 2017 at 09:44 AM (#5589198)
I will be surprised if he is league average at both hitting and pitching (by OPS+ and ERA+). But that's a still good player for the money.
   45. Textbook Editor Posted: December 09, 2017 at 09:53 AM (#5589202)
#43–wouldn’t his hitting as a P on an AL team (specifically when he starts) have to be calculated using the DH replacement level as the benchmark (instead of a P on a NL team)?

Because I’m assuming for the ~30 games he starts they won’t use a DH...
   46. Spahn Insane Posted: December 09, 2017 at 09:59 AM (#5589203)
38:

Couple years yet.

Oh, you said 86*D*...
   47. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: December 09, 2017 at 10:00 AM (#5589204)
Because I’m assuming for the ~30 games he starts they won’t use a DH...


Some of those will be interleague games in NL parks. IOW, AL pitchers also bat, just not nearly as much as NL pitchers. I don't think DH performance is used as their baseline.
   48. KronicFatigue Posted: December 09, 2017 at 10:02 AM (#5589205)
Because I’m assuming for the ~30 games he starts they won’t use a DH...


Quick edit: I'm a bit shocked that the rule says you can't use a DH on any player you want. That makes his value to an AL team even less, right? Because now he's only upgrading in hitting over the DH, whereas in the NL he'd be a huge offensive upgrade over his P counterparts.
   49. Hysterical & Useless Posted: December 09, 2017 at 10:05 AM (#5589206)
I'm sure someone here has pointed it out,


I'd guess Olbermann was channeling Walt Davis (sans attribution, of course).
   50. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: December 09, 2017 at 10:31 AM (#5589215)
I'm a bit shocked that the rule says you can't use a DH on any player you want.


You think it might have been done once or twice in 45 years if it was allowed?

Because now he's only upgrading in hitting over the DH, whereas in the NL he'd be a huge offensive upgrade over his P counterparts.


Well if he's a good enough hitter to DH, then he's his own personal replacement level batter when he's pitching. Also, his value to the Angels is increased because he's pushing a bad DH out of the lineup when he pitches.
   51. Khrushin it bro Posted: December 09, 2017 at 11:23 AM (#5589228)
Pujols will be hitting like a pitcher before his contract is over.
   52. grandcosmo Posted: December 09, 2017 at 02:52 PM (#5589347)
Because I’m assuming for the ~30 games he starts they won’t use a DH...
I doubt that because once they remove him from the game they won't have a DH anymore and their relief pitchers would have to bat.

I expect that he will be used occasionally as a DH in between starts but that he'll gradually move to pitcher only as he gets older.
   53. shoewizard Posted: December 09, 2017 at 03:04 PM (#5589354)
I'd guess Olbermann was channeling Walt Davis (sans attribution, of course).


that wouldn't surprise me. (that Walt might say that, or that Olberman wouldn't attribute)

Either way, it's a very good point.

He should have gone with an NL team, where his hitting would help his team win more games that he pitches.

Even if he has the talent to be a good hitter AND good pitcher at the MLB level, which he most likely does, I don't see how he holds up physically.
If it wasn't so hard on the body to try to do both, it would have been done more often. There have been plenty of guys that have had the talent to do both at MLB level. So why haven't they ?

   54. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: December 09, 2017 at 03:21 PM (#5589362)
I doubt that because once they remove him from the game they won't have a DH anymore and their relief pitchers would have to bat.


This is pretty much a non-issue unless he gets knocked out of the box early. And nobody gets lifted early in regular season games anymore, no matter how poorly he's pitching. You're basically talking about needing a pinch hitter for one AB in his starts, and that can be the guy you use to DH in games that Ohtani doesn't. You can also double switch and move him to a corner. It's not likely that he's going to hurt himself making a couple of throws from the OF even after he's thrown a hundred pitches.
   55. Walt Davis Posted: December 10, 2017 at 04:51 PM (#5589646)
I doubt Olbermann reads me ... maybe one of his interns. :-)

There have been plenty of guys that have had the talent to do both at MLB level. So why haven't they ?

I doubt that there have been many. There are possibly a couple of pitchers who could have managed a 100 OPS+ if given more opportunities to develop their hitting but it would be a short list (Ankiel did it so we assume he could have; various guys were two-way players in HS/college before being pushed into just one). There are probably some position players who could handle some relief work if given the opportunity to develop their pitching.

But it's not clear it's worth the risk. I've pointed out that unless you do hit the true double -- a guy who is good at both and can handle starting nearly every game in the field between starts on the mound -- the extra value is likely to be minimal. Presumably it also takes longer to develop such a player unless both skills magically develop simultaneously. That is, you have a 22-year-old prospect you think is a 4-WAR hitter but his pitching isn't there yet -- are you going to hold him back in the minors for another season or two to work on his pitching or are you going to bring him to the majors as a position player?

Ohtani is kind of a perfect storm as MLB didn't have to make those developmental decisions, they get to swoop in on the mostly finished product.

Back to the "how common is it?" question ... MLB doesn't even really try this in the minors. So the combo must be extremely rare and even when it does occur, it must almost always be the case that one skill is obviously better than the other so they take the safe bet. Possibly they've just convinced themselves it can't possibly be done and nobody's had the guts to buck convention.

   56. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: December 10, 2017 at 07:42 PM (#5589714)
Here's something I hadn't known: Dave Cameron said on the Fangraphs podcast today that Ohtani grades out with 80 speed according to scouts -- meaning he would be one of the fastest guys in the league, up there with Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton. If he blows out his arm, they were saying his second option is to be a good-glove outfielder.
   57. Ziggy's screen name Posted: December 10, 2017 at 09:18 PM (#5589783)
If he's a good enough hitter to DH, and he's got 80 speed, what's he doing pitching? Make him a center fielder all ready. Hamilton is a useful player who hits like Tommy Lasorda (not 1950s vintage Lasorda, I'm talking today's model). A version of Hamilton that could actually hit would be one hell of a player. If he insists on pitching also, let him be a reliever. Obviously you couldn't bring him in mid-inning, but he could still be a 2-way player.
   58. shoewizard Posted: December 10, 2017 at 09:32 PM (#5589799)

I doubt that there have been many.


Respectfully disagree. I'm talking about the TALENT to do both. But as we know, that talent must be developed and nurtured, and as you wisely point out, there are decisions to be made and the timing usually doesn't work out.

But in the 100 years since Babe Ruth did it a couple of years, there had to be a dozen guys out of the 20,000 or so that at least that had the talent to play both ways. yet no team saw fit to try it in any serious way. And it's obvious why. It's too demanding physically. There is no other reason NOT to try it.

   59. PreservedFish Posted: December 10, 2017 at 09:37 PM (#5589803)
Fascinating about the speed. I just googled it and there are slightly conflicting reports. MLB.com graded him as a 65 runner. Another MLB.com article notes that his fastest home to first time equalled Dee Gordon's average "max effort," but that seems to lack detail. Sounds like he's pretty damn fast but I'd be surprised if he's moving at 80. And he's a big fella too.

Of course it goes without saying that even elite speed doesn't necessarily create elite defense. I mean, Vince Coleman.

Re: Ziggy ... I think the jury is really out on his hitting. He throws 101, he could easily be a Syndergaard on the mound on day one.
   60. Rally Posted: December 11, 2017 at 09:59 AM (#5589935)
The position adjustment is where his WAR is differentiated. When he's batting as a pitcher, his position adjustment will be a big positive one. When he's batting as the DH, it will be a negative one. This is already set up in the calculations, Zobrist's position adjustment varies on how often he plays outfield vs. second base. Or historically, Wonderful Willie Smith's position adjustment takes into account whether he was pitching or playing outfield.

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