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Thursday, September 06, 2018

Should We Adjust How We Evaluate Pitching Prospects? | FanGraphs Baseball

Each season I consolidate prospect ratings and rankings from multiple sources. The last two years, based on research about typical WAR yields, I’ve shifted most pitchers downward and now spend most of my top picks on position players and try to stock up on pitchers later in the drafts. My stockpile of position players is really growing, while I’m still occasionally hitting on pitchers later.

My interest in these three specific pitchers relates to my work on last winter’s top-100 list with Eric. He and I purposely moved pitchers, as a population, down our rankings a bit to better reflect how many wins pitchers create relative to position players. Traditionally, there appears to be too little consideration in these lists for pitcher attrition. (This is the case for our own old lists, as well.) It’s easy to downgrade the Cease/Manning types due to questions about their future roles, but it’s also just as easy to boost them on the grounds that they could be the power-over-feel types who turn into Max Scherzer.

Jim Furtado Posted: September 06, 2018 at 10:40 AM | 4 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: prospect rankings, prospects

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 06, 2018 at 11:20 AM (#5739702)
Interesting article. Pitchers are an enigma.
   2. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: September 06, 2018 at 08:52 PM (#5740243)
How can you evaluate something that does not exist?
   3. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: September 06, 2018 at 09:47 PM (#5740271)
How can you evaluate something that does not exist?


So what you are suggesting is that all pitching prospects are the devil?
   4. Rally Posted: September 07, 2018 at 10:02 AM (#5740414)
Out of curiosity, highest prospect ranking for 2018's best pitchers:

Nola #37, MLB 2015
Scherzer #66, BA 2008
deGrom, not ranked
Freeland #60, MLB 2015
Sale #19, BP 2011
Kluber, not ranked
Snell #12 BA 2016
Bauer #9, MLB 2012
Verlander #8 BA 2006
Clevinger not ranked
Cole #3, BP 2013
Corbin not ranked
Severino #23, MLB 2015
Kershaw #5, BP 2008



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