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Friday, February 14, 2014

Shut up, stats nerds and haters: You’re wrong about Derek Jeter

If one had to synthesize most of the recent Jeter coverage under one headline, it would be: Is Derek Jeter a True Hall of Famer or Is He Overrated?

Let’s deal with the first question. There isn’t any doubt that he is going to get into the Hall of Fame. Only nine players in the history of baseball have more hits than Jeter. He’s a 13-time All-Star with five World Series rings. And he’s tremendously popular. If you put down a deposit on a hotel room in Cooperstown for July 2020, it’s good as gold.

Those who have cast doubts about his HOF worthiness have always stressed the lack of bold numbers on his statistics page on BaseballReference.com. In other words, he never led the league in many offensive categories. This is true. He only led the league in runs scored in 1998 and in hits in 1999 and 2012, and HOFers have usually topped the list in more stats than that.

He was never quite a match for the top superstars of his era. Or as Ted Berg put it in USA Today (in a piece titled “Derek Jeter is the most fervently overrated shoo-in for the Hall of Fame”), “In terms of overall value to his teams, Jeter just doesn’t stack up to recent historic greats like Albert Pujols and Barry Bonds, and can’t quite match great contemporaries like Chipper Jones and Jeff Bagwell either.”

This is also true, but not to the point.

madvillain Posted: February 14, 2014 at 02:40 PM | 124 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: derek jeter

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   1. Davo Dozier (Mastroianni) Posted: February 14, 2014 at 03:28 PM (#4657023)
So much cringe here! Let's take one silly one:

Let’s save time and compare Jeter to a hitter who everyone acknowledges as a legitimate Hall of Famer – or at least they would if Pete Rose hadn’t tarted betting on baseball games.

Jeter’s career batting average is .312 to Rose’s .303, and even if Derek played another five seasons to match Pete’s 24 years, and his skills declined over that time as Rose’s did late in his career, Jeter would still end up with a higher batting average.

Pete Rose through age 40 had a lifetime batting average of .310. What are the odds that Jeter's still ahead of that by the time 2014 is over? 50/50?
   2. Michael J. Binkley's anxiety closet Posted: February 14, 2014 at 03:30 PM (#4657026)
Unless you are a really hardcore believer in DRA, I'm pretty sure the answer for many "stat-nerds" is "he's both."
   3. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: February 14, 2014 at 03:31 PM (#4657027)
This is also true, but not to the point.

I read TFA and I still don't know what the point is other than this guy wants to get paid to write things
Not that Jeter was great at shortstop. I don’t trust any of the supposedly scientific measures of fielding ability, but here are two that surely have some measure of validity: Jeter’s career fielding percentage, going into the 2014 season, is .976, compared to the average for players at this position over the same period has been .972. His range in the field has been four chances per nine innings while other shortstops over the same span averaged 4.5. I’d say that on the whole this indicates that Jeter was an average fielding shortstop, perhaps a tad below average. But he hit and ran the bases well enough for the Yankees to keep him there regardless of his defensive deficiencies.
In any event, he isn’t going into the Hall of Fame because of his fielding – he’s going in because of his hitting and base running.

This is stupid. He doesn't trust science but he does trust irrelevant numbers, but in any event this thinks defense isn't relevant.
Unless you are a really hardcore believer in DRA, I'm pretty sure the answer for many "stat-nerds" is "he's both."

Even using TZ, his career bWAA is 35.8, which is excellent and possibly HOM-worthy but not an all-time great.
   4. Hang down your head, Tom Foley Posted: February 14, 2014 at 03:34 PM (#4657029)
This is also true, but not to the point. Jeter is a greater player than a Yankee shortstop of the 1940s and early 1950s, Phil Rizzuto, who is in the Hall of Fame. Nobody said Rizzuto should not be inducted because “He doesn’t quite stack up with Ted Williams and Stan Musial.”
Yes, everybody agreed that Rizzuto was a first-ballot Hall of Famer.
   5. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: February 14, 2014 at 03:37 PM (#4657033)
Oh, where have you gone King? Seriously, I've forgotten. Where is he now?

I seem to recall a time when Barra wasn't a hack. What happened?
   6. jmurph Posted: February 14, 2014 at 03:40 PM (#4657035)
Those who have cast doubts about his HOF worthiness


I'm genuinely not sure I've ever read or heard anyone cast doubts on his HOF worthiness.
   7. Tom Nawrocki Posted: February 14, 2014 at 03:46 PM (#4657039)
If one had to synthesize most of the recent Jeter coverage under one headline, it would be: Is Derek Jeter a True Hall of Famer or Is He Overrated?


He's pretty obviously both, isn't he? One can be well-qualified for the Hall of Fame, as Jeter is, without necessarily being the Greatest Player, No, Make That the Greatest Man Ever.

   8. James Newburg is in awe of Cespedes' CORE STRENGTH Posted: February 14, 2014 at 03:46 PM (#4657040)
Oh, where have you gone King? Seriously, I've forgotten. Where is he now?


Bleacher Report.
   9. Lassus Posted: February 14, 2014 at 03:47 PM (#4657041)
Echoing #6 - STFU Barra, you idiot. No one anywhere has said this.

   10. Random Transaction Generator Posted: February 14, 2014 at 03:48 PM (#4657044)
Pete Rose through age 40 had a lifetime batting average of .310. What are the odds that Jeter's still ahead of that by the time 2014 is over? 50/50?


Minimum batting average Jeter would need to have in 2014 to maintain a career +.310 AVG:
AB___AVG
_63_.000 (his total AB last year)
100_.060
200_.185
300_.227
400_.248
500_.260
600_.268
683_.274 (most AB in his career, 2012)

   11. Gonfalon B. Posted: February 14, 2014 at 03:49 PM (#4657045)
I've seen more writers implicitly cast doubts on whether the Hall of Fame is worthy of Derek Jeter.
   12. GuyM Posted: February 14, 2014 at 03:50 PM (#4657046)
His range in the field has been four chances per nine innings while other shortstops over the same span averaged 4.5. I’d say that on the whole this indicates that Jeter was an average fielding shortstop, perhaps a tad below average.

The gap between 4.5 and 4 plays hardly amounts to being "a tad" below average. That difference in plays made would translate into an extra 47 runs allowed per season (150 games). By comparison, as a hitter Jeter produced about 19 runs per season above an average hitter. Range factor is certainly a crude measure of fielding, and Jeter wasn't quite this bad, but you certainly can't use these figures to defend Jeter.
   13. AROM Posted: February 14, 2014 at 03:51 PM (#4657047)
His range in the field has been four chances per nine innings while other shortstops over the same span averaged 4.5. I’d say that on the whole this indicates that Jeter was an average fielding shortstop, perhaps a tad below average.


Incredibly stupid. Half a play per game over 2500 games - that is 1250 plays below average, over 900 runs. You have to explain away most of that gap (lots of strikeouts from the staff, fewer ground balls to left side, etc. fortunately for Jeter even the harshest defensive systems don't have him anywhere near 900 runs below average. But saying " only half a play per game, no big deal" is just incredibly ignorant.
   14. ASmitty Posted: February 14, 2014 at 03:55 PM (#4657051)
Echoing #6 - STFU Barra, you idiot. No one anywhere has said this.


Hating the hater of the haters only perpetuates the vicious cycle. Free thyself!
   15. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: February 14, 2014 at 03:56 PM (#4657052)
I'm genuinely not sure I've ever read or heard anyone cast doubts on his HOF worthiness.


Me neither. The only guy I can think of who might feel that way is the author of Post No. 12. So Guy, would you vote for Jeter?
   16. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: February 14, 2014 at 04:04 PM (#4657055)
Is Derek Jeter a True Hall of Famer or Is He Overrated?


Somebody send this guy a link to the definition of "false dichotomy" please.
   17. cardsfanboy Posted: February 14, 2014 at 04:09 PM (#4657059)
Okay...I'm going to read the article no matter how painful...

1st point.
Those who have cast doubts about his HOF worthiness have always stressed the lack of bold numbers on his statistics page on BaseballReference.com. In other words, he never led the league in many offensive categories.


Can someone point to someone somewhere saying this? I'm an avid baseball follower and have never ever heard someone say Jeter lacks bold numbers. Those who cast doubts about his hof worthiness(and there aren't many of them) stress that his putrid defense negates his quality offense. That is literally the only argument anyone has ever made against Jeter's hof case(at least the only rational argument)

Jeter has a higher on-base percentage than Rose, .381 to .375, and had a considerably better slugging percentage, .446 to .409. When you combine these two numbers into the stat beloved by so many analysts, on-base plus slugging, Jeter has an even bigger edge, .828 to .784.


When making up an argument from someone else's point of view, it should be a requirement that you attempt to accurately describe their argument. (yes republicans, I'm talking to you also) If you want to bring up ops, bring up ops+ also. As pointed out up thread, Rose had a five year decline that Jeter never had to figure into the equation after roughly 12000 pa Rose had an ops+ of 126 and an ops of .814 vs Jeter's .828 and 117. Jeter was never as good of a hitter as Rose, and it's silly to bring him into an argument about Jeter.

I “think Derek Jeter should win the MVP despite the pesky fact that Joe Mauer is a better candidate …”

Five years after the fact is probably a little late to say this, but lighten up, Deadspin. I never said Joe Mauer was a better MVP candidate than Jeter. What I said was that most of Mauer’s statistics were better and that “the case for Mr. Jeter” – the Wall Street Journal makes you refer to men who are living as “Mr.” – “as American League MVP is made by more subjective arguments.” Come on, are you going to tell me that Derek Jeter wasn’t a great teammate and that he didn’t contribute to his team in ways that don’t necessarily show up in a box score? Except maybe in the “win” category?


This whole rewarding a player with positive character traits just reeks. Basically you are saying guys like Joe Mauer, who have a good clubhouse reputation, aren't remotely comparable to Saint Jeter. To the tune that even though one player clearly had the better year, the other should get a bonus vaulting him over the other. I'm fine with saying Jeter is a +1 win teammate....but why is Mauer a +0 win teammate?

   18. Best Regards, President of Comfort Posted: February 14, 2014 at 04:11 PM (#4657061)
A couple of years ago I was wearing a Derek Jeter t-shirt and a guy at the store said, "That's the greatest Yankee of all time!"

I said, "Uh, no. Babe Ruth? Lou Gehrig? Mickey Mantle?" No, he said Jeter was the greatest.

See, that's what we're dealing with here.

Derek Jeter is one of the all-time great shortstops. He is the greatest shortstop in Yankees history. He is a clear first-ballot Hall of Famer. But he's not as good as *you* think he is.
   19. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: February 14, 2014 at 04:17 PM (#4657063)
As pointed out up thread, Rose had a five year decline that Jeter never had to figure into the equation after roughly 12000 pa Rose had an ops+ of 126 and an ops of .814 vs Jeter's .828 and 117. Jeter was never as good of a hitter as Rose, and it's silly to bring him into an argument about Jeter.

It's not just the decline phase. Rose was in a much different offensive environment. Adjusted to a 4.4 runs/game environment, Rose would have hit .312/.385/.420. Jeter's actual numbers? .312/.381/.446.
   20. jdennis Posted: February 14, 2014 at 04:26 PM (#4657067)
.976 > .972 given equal weight to 4 < 4.5, lol
   21. JE (Jason Epstein) Posted: February 14, 2014 at 04:29 PM (#4657068)
“Derek Jeter is the most fervently overrated shoo-in for the Hall of Fame”

Mo says hello.
   22. BDC Posted: February 14, 2014 at 04:30 PM (#4657071)
In terms of career, Wagner and Ripken might be the only unarguably superior shortstops, given Jeter's amazing longevity at the position. Ozzie Smith is arguable, but one does have to have the argument, even if it's a familiar argument.

Peak/prime is tougher company: Wagner and Ripken, AROD and Banks, Garciaparra, Vaughan, Trammell, George Davis, Larkin, Appling, Boudreau, Cronin. Tejada? Jeter is somewhere in the lower half of that group, but exactly where, who knows.

Jeter's postseason resumé should vault him over some of the peak candidates, if one must establish inner-circle HOF rankings. In any case, one of the handful of greatest SS careers and one of the economy-scoopful of greatest peak SS.

That's my impression. Am I underrating the guy? :)
   23. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: February 14, 2014 at 04:31 PM (#4657072)
I've seen more writers implicitly cast doubts on whether the Hall of Fame is worthy of Derek Jeter.


Brilliant.
   24. Walt Davis Posted: February 14, 2014 at 04:52 PM (#4657096)
I thought AROD was the greatest SS in Yankee history.:-)

Now, CFB, it makes perfect sense to comp Jeter to Rose, they're quite similar as hitters and Rose had a lot of defensive "flexibility" so it's not unreasonable to comp them as defenders. (Similar dWAR through age 39 too.) It's just silly to conclude that Jeter was better than Rose as a hitter, especially based on that analysis.

Gwynn's not a bad comp either although again one that Jeter comes up a bit short of as a hitter ... again, similar dWAR, Gwynn's being negative due to Rpos.

Jeter is #2 in career oWAR among SS ... or #3 if you want to pretend ARod spent his career there. The next two closest guys are Yount (12 oWAR behind, half his career not at SS) and Ripken (17 behind) both with more PA than Jeter. Even balancing peak and career, I don't think you can make him worse than the 4th-best hitting SS (OK, 1901 or later, MLB-only) -- Wagner, ARod, Vaughan.

It's odd in that for the first half of his career, he was generally no better than the 3rd and maybe sometimes 5th best-hitting SS -- ARod, Nomar and sometimes Tejada and Larkin. A testament to his in-season and across-season durability. (Larkin another good offensive comp for Jeter)

None of which really relates to this article which is just clickbait.
   25. Blackadder Posted: February 14, 2014 at 05:04 PM (#4657104)
I'm genuinely not sure I've ever read or heard anyone cast doubts on his HOF worthiness.


I would vote for him, basically because though I do find the Tango/Mike Humphreys/GuyM argument compelling, it still seems incredible that he could have been that bad, so I make some allowances for the chance that it is wrong; I do, however, think he's a below median Hall of Famer. Compared to this year's ballot, I would have him behind Bonds, Clemens, Maddux, Bagwell, Thomas, Piazza, Schilling, Glavine, Raines, Mussina, Trammell, Walker, and McGwire, maybe Edgar depending on the DH penalty, not really close to making the hypothetical ballot. If the glut hasn't cleared out in 6 years, there is going to be a very good case to leave him off the ballot.
   26. Moeball Posted: February 14, 2014 at 05:15 PM (#4657111)
Jeter’s career fielding percentage, going into the 2014 season, is .976


I believe his career "baskets sent" percentage is .990, which has got to be a record. I think he only missed sending a couple.
   27. Ron J2 Posted: February 14, 2014 at 05:23 PM (#4657113)
I've just finished the peak SS list. Precisely where Jeter ranks is unusually dependent on what you sort by. He does worst by prime (best 7 year stretch -- remove best and two worst seasons), but even then, the guys just in front of him are Luke Appling, Barry Larkin, Pee-Wee Resse and Bobby Wallace. And he's just ahead of Dave Bancroft.

By oWAR in 5 best seasons at SS he's 4th (Wagner, ARod, Vaughn), by WAR in his 5 best seasons he's 14th -- just behind Trammell, Appling and George Davis and just ahead of Ozzie Smith.

Of course he's not really a peak candidate.

EDIT: interestingly peak dWAR has a pretty decent correlation (40.2%) with prime age. That is to say the really good defenders were more likely to have a late peak. There's a much weaker (and negative) correlation between prime age and peak oWAR. Don't know what it means and I've only checked at SS. Just thought I'd mention it.
   28. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: February 14, 2014 at 05:34 PM (#4657115)
Hating the hater of the haters only perpetuates the vicious cycle. Free thyself!


You kid, of course, but there is actually a lot more than a grain of truth to this. Some folks on this here board are setting themselves up for a very long season if they can't learn to just let it go.
   29. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: February 14, 2014 at 05:52 PM (#4657121)
I would vote for him, basically because though I do find the Tango/Mike Humphreys/GuyM argument compelling, it still seems incredible that he could have been that bad, so I make some allowances for the chance that it is wrong; I do, however, think he's a below median Hall of Famer. Compared to this year's ballot, I would have him behind Bonds, Clemens, Maddux, Bagwell, Thomas, Piazza, Schilling, Glavine, Raines, Mussina, Trammell, Walker, and McGwire, maybe Edgar depending on the DH penalty, not really close to making the hypothetical ballot. If the glut hasn't cleared out in 6 years, there is going to be a very good case to leave him off the ballot.

And yet if he'd been on this year's ballot, only Maddux would have had even a ghost of a chance of outpolling him.

---------------------------------------------

Some folks on this here board are setting themselves up for a very long season if they can't learn to just let it go.

Hell, some people here still won't get over the fact that the writers treat steroids differently than greenies. (The shock! The nerve! The hypocrisy!) This recent flood of Jeter pinata posts is just the latest of their ulcer inducers.
   30. Sean Forman Posted: February 14, 2014 at 05:53 PM (#4657122)
If my math is right I may have an HOF vote in 2020 and I'd be tempted to list a ten-man ballot with Jeter not on it since some deserving players are criminally under voted, but I have some fear that I would be run out of business if I did that.
   31. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: February 14, 2014 at 06:04 PM (#4657126)
If my math is right I may have an HOF vote in 2020 and I'd be tempted to list a ten-man ballot with Jeter not on it since some deserving players are criminally under voted, but I have some fear that I would be run out of business if I did that.

If in 2020 you can think of 10 players on the cusp of either election or dropping off the ballot, then go for it and #### what anyone says. And if you want to throw your ballot away by voting for Bonds, then at least there's a principle involved that's worthy of respect.

But withholding a ballot from a slam dunk first ballot player just to boost some player from 30.2% to 30.6% isn't what I would call a great move. You'd be better than the writers who refuse to vote for a Ripken or a Maddux merely to keep him below 100%, but it'd still be seen as little more than a gratuitous bid for attention.
   32. BDC Posted: February 14, 2014 at 06:09 PM (#4657130)
I have some fear that I would be run out of business if I did that

JETER NAMED ON ALL BUT ONE BALLOT; WONDER WHO THAT COULD BE
   33. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: February 14, 2014 at 06:11 PM (#4657131)
And yet if he'd been on this year's ballot, only Maddux would have had even a ghost of a chance of outpolling him.

Yeah, that's because he's ... wait for it ... overrated.
   34. cmd600 Posted: February 14, 2014 at 06:16 PM (#4657135)
But withholding a ballot from a slam dunk first ballot player just to boost some player from 30.2% to 30.6% isn't what I would call a great move


How is bumping Jeter from from 98.2% to 98.4% any better a move? I'd say he's an ideal candidate to leave off to vote for the underrepresented, fully admitting I'm in the party that doesn't give a crap about first ballot distinctions or those who got 95% instead of 85% or 75%. Until they build a special wing for those who make it on the first ballot or who get some kind of supermajority percentage, it's meaningless.

And if/when the #### does hit the fan, Sean is an ideal candidate to state a defense for the underrepresented candidate, possibly leading to better voting numbers for that player in the future. He's not going to pull a Chass and go "suck it nerds, I do what I want!".
   35. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: February 14, 2014 at 06:16 PM (#4657136)
If in 2020 you can think of 10 players on the cusp of either election or dropping off the ballot, then go for it and #### what anyone says. And if you want to throw your ballot away by voting for Bonds, then at least there's a principle involved that's worthy of respect.

Or you could just vote for the best guys and resist the temptation to do the whole 'look at me, I'm votin' over here' routine. It's a lot to ask to be sure. It's exciting when the phone rings.

   36. TDF, situational idiot Posted: February 14, 2014 at 06:18 PM (#4657138)
Derek Jeter is clearly a HOFer. To not believe that, you either have to think (1) he was not just bad, but breathtakingly horrible at defense, which no defensive stat supports or (2) the HOF is too large by 50%.

He's also massively overrated. While he's #21 in oWAR (which rewards him for being a SS, but doesn't dock him for being a poor one), that's a counting stat (he's #19 in career PA) - placing him between Eddie Mathews and Jimmie Foxx (two greats to be sure, but neither is seen as nearly as good as Jeter by, well, almost everyone).
   37. KT's Pot Arb Posted: February 14, 2014 at 06:28 PM (#4657139)

I believe his career "baskets sent" percentage is .990, which has got to be a record. I think he only missed sending a couple.


My math is at that percentage he missed sending at least a dozen, perhaps over 20.
   38. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: February 14, 2014 at 06:31 PM (#4657142)
(1) he was not just bad, but breathtakingly horrible at defense, which no defensive stat supports

Multiple analyses cited in this very thread support exactly that.
   39. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: February 14, 2014 at 06:32 PM (#4657143)
But withholding a ballot from a slam dunk first ballot player just to boost some player from 30.2% to 30.6% isn't what I would call a great move

How is bumping Jeter from from 98.2% to 98.4% any better a move?


You're probably right, but it still seems silly to leave off the more obvious choice unless there's a significant strategic alternative.

And if/when the #### does hit the fan, Sean is an ideal candidate to state a defense for the underrepresented candidate, possibly leading to better voting numbers for that player in the future. He's not going to pull a Chass and go "suck it nerds, I do what I want!"

No argument there, but even Sean would run the risk of getting himself branded for trying to make a point that could have been equally made by omitting a less deserving player. By leaving off Jeter but continuing to vote for a player with no chance of getting elected, you're drawing more attention to yourself than to your point.

Not that it would matter to me, BTW, and if Sean's willing to take the heat, then more power to him.

----------------------------------------------------------

If in 2020 you can think of 10 players on the cusp of either election or dropping off the ballot, then go for it and #### what anyone says. And if you want to throw your ballot away by voting for Bonds, then at least there's a principle involved that's worthy of respect.

Or you could just vote for the best guys and resist the temptation to do the whole 'look at me, I'm votin' over here' routine.


That would be my inclination.

It's a lot to ask to be sure. It's exciting when the phone rings.

I doubt if that'd be Sean's main motivation. He's a pretty much under the radar guy.

----------------------------------------------------------------

He's also massively overrated. While he's #21 in oWAR (which rewards him for being a SS, but doesn't dock him for being a poor one), that's a counting stat (he's #19 in career PA) - placing him between Eddie Mathews and Jimmie Foxx (two greats to be sure, but neither is seen as nearly as good as Jeter by, well, almost everyone).

Well, it's also true that "almost everyone" thinks that the latest and hottest actress is greater than Barbara Stanwyck, if they even know who Barbara Stanwyck is. Current opinions of long gone ballplayers not named Babe Ruth or Ted Williams should always be taken with a grain of salt.
   40. bookbook Posted: February 14, 2014 at 06:34 PM (#4657144)
"Is Derek Jeter a True Hall of Famer or Is He Overrated?"



"Somebody send this guy a link to the definition of "false dichotomy" please."


I was going to go with "strawman", but yours will do.


Derek Jeter, a no doubt hall of famer, was also very bad at defense for a shortstop. I assume he would have been more valuable to the Yankees at second base for most of his career. Is there any way to run that hypothetical?
   41. this space for rent Posted: February 14, 2014 at 06:45 PM (#4657150)
But saying " only half a play per game, no big deal" is just incredibly ignorant.


Take away half a hit per game and Jeter would have a career batting average of .190.
   42. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: February 14, 2014 at 06:45 PM (#4657151)

I seem to recall a time when Barra wasn't a hack. What happened?

It wasn't until I read this post that I realized this was written by Barra and not one of those Yahoo "A Fan's View" articles.
   43. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: February 14, 2014 at 06:56 PM (#4657155)
It's certainly true that Jeter's career 117 OPS+ is unimpressive for the position(s) he could have played competently.(*) He gets a mental and reputational boost for having been a "shortstop," but upon any serious perusal, it's wholly unearned.

(*) Assuming there were any. Needless to say, a 117 OPS+ as a DH doesn't get you within sniffing distance of the HOF.
   44. JE (Jason Epstein) Posted: February 14, 2014 at 07:02 PM (#4657156)
I seem to recall a time when Barra wasn't a hack. What happened?

Some of Barra's later work at the Voice was hackish, although nothing as bad like this.
   45. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: February 14, 2014 at 07:03 PM (#4657157)
It's certainly true that Jeter's career 117 OPS+ is unimpressive for the position(s) he could have played competently.(*) He gets a mental and reputational boost for having been a "shortstop," but upon any serious perusal, it's wholly unearned.

(*) Assuming there were any. Needless to say, a 117 OPS+ as a DH doesn't get you within sniffing distance of the HOF.


Haters goin' to hate.
   46. GuyM Posted: February 14, 2014 at 07:04 PM (#4657159)
The only guy I can think of who might feel that way is the author of Post No. 12. So Guy, would you vote for Jeter?

Yes, I would vote for Jeter. the idea that he's an inner circle guy is absurd. I doubt he's eve a top 10 SS -- he pretty clearly ranks behind Ozzie and Trammell in career value, for example. But he'd get my vote.
   47. RMc's desperate, often sordid world Posted: February 14, 2014 at 07:13 PM (#4657160)
Kwik-kwiz: Only seven shortstops (at least 80% of their career games at SS) have at least 10 WAR as a Yankee. Name 'em.
   48. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: February 14, 2014 at 07:17 PM (#4657161)
I don't really even consider Jeter an SS. He happened to play in a big offensive environment, for a franchise swimming in money, wherein his massive defensive deficiencies at SS could be bludgeoned away.

Like Rivera, he's an accident of time and place -- not timeless and universal.

He's going to get elected to the HOF, and I suppose that's ok (*), but the idea that he's an inner circle great is preposterous.

(*) Even though his 117 OPS+ isn't HOF-competitive anywhere but middle infield.
   49. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: February 14, 2014 at 07:17 PM (#4657162)
Thanks for the reply, Guy.
   50. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: February 14, 2014 at 07:36 PM (#4657167)
(*) Even though his 117 OPS+ isn't HOF-competitive anywhere but middle infield.


What's your take on Rose (gambling notwithstanding)?
   51. Ill calla Tony you Colavito Posted: February 14, 2014 at 07:49 PM (#4657169)
Kwik-kwiz: Only seven shortstops (at least 80% of their career games at SS) have at least 10 WAR as a Yankee. Name 'em.


Jeter and Rizzuto for sure, possibly Kubek and Crosetti.

All I can think of without cheating.
   52. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: February 14, 2014 at 08:02 PM (#4657174)
Jeter and Rizzuto for sure, possibly Kubek and Crosetti.

Bucky Dent? Mark Koenig?
   53. Sweatpants Posted: February 14, 2014 at 08:19 PM (#4657177)
Roger Peckinpaugh?
   54. Hang down your head, Tom Foley Posted: February 14, 2014 at 08:22 PM (#4657180)
Roy Smalley?

No, Smalley missed the list for two reasons.
   55. simon bedford Posted: February 14, 2014 at 08:25 PM (#4657183)
gene michaels?

   56. cmd600 Posted: February 14, 2014 at 08:26 PM (#4657184)
No argument there, but even Sean would run the risk of getting himself branded for trying to make a point that could have been equally made by omitting a less deserving player. By leaving off Jeter but continuing to vote for a player with no chance of getting elected, you're drawing more attention to yourself than to your point.


Not if you come out and provide a reasoned defense of your point. I think an issue here is we're used to BBWAA members main defense as "it's my vote, I can do whatever the hell I want with it", with variations among that mindset ranging from the Chass, to the Gomez, to the Gurnick. In fact, if Sean did get criticized for his vote, I'd have no problem if his only response was "Chass, Gomez, Gurnick."
   57. RMc's desperate, often sordid world Posted: February 14, 2014 at 08:58 PM (#4657188)
Jeter, Rizzuto, Peckinpaugh, Crosetti, Kubek and Dent are correct.

Technically, the other one wasn't a Yankee, since he played from 1903-09.
   58. Best Regards, President of Comfort Posted: February 14, 2014 at 08:58 PM (#4657189)
While he's #21 in oWAR (which rewards him for being a SS, but doesn't dock him for being a poor one)


Well, oWAR *should* reward him for being a SS, without docking him for his defense. If it docked him for his defense, then combining it with his defense would double-count his defense.

It rewards him for playing SS because having Jeter at SS means that you don't need to use a lineup spot on a player who hits like a typical available SS. You can use it on a player who plays at a position where players hit better than shortstops (which is pretty much all of them). And then his shitty defense brings him back down.
   59. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: February 14, 2014 at 09:04 PM (#4657191)
Technically, the other one wasn't a Yankee, since he played from 1903-09.

I could be remembering his name or team wrong, but... Kid Elberfeld?

Edit: Elberfeld doesn't meet the 80% qualifier over his entire career, but he does meet it during his Yankee tenure.
   60. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: February 14, 2014 at 09:09 PM (#4657192)
If he'd played a passable LF his whole career (*), instead of an incompetent SS, would he be a deserving HOFer?

That's the essential question, and the only question.

(*) Let's assume he could have.
   61. RMc's desperate, often sordid world Posted: February 14, 2014 at 09:16 PM (#4657193)
Elberfield it is.
   62. Best Regards, President of Comfort Posted: February 14, 2014 at 09:18 PM (#4657194)
If he'd played a passable LF his whole career (*), instead of an incompetent SS, would he be a deserving HOFer?

That's the essential question, and the only question.


No it's not the only question, because he actually played shortstop. Replacement level is compared to other shortstops, players who can play the position. If you only put players who hit as well as Jeter or better at shortstop, Jeter would probably have been one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball.

Jeter was not by any measure an *incompetent* shortstop. He was an extremely inferior shortstop. If you want to see an incompetent shortstop, stick Prince Fielder at shortstop.
   63. Kiko Sakata Posted: February 14, 2014 at 09:37 PM (#4657197)
If he'd played a passable LF his whole career (*), instead of an incompetent SS, would he be a deserving HOFer?


This is essentially what something like WAR is intended to measure: what is the tradeoff of Jeter playing SS versus Jeter playing it terribly - or, alternately, how does terrible-SS Jeter compare to merely-bad-LF Jeter? According to BB-Ref, Jeter is 58th in career WAR among position players and 88th among all players. You can debate the precise value of Jeter's defense vis-a-vis BB-Ref's measure (-234 runs, career dWAR of -9.2) and you can take peak and prime into consideration in addition to career. But you have to downgrade him pretty far below what BB-Ref has already done and place a pretty heavy premium on peak vis-a-vis career (and/or drastically shrink the size of your personal HOF vis-a-vis the real one in Cooperstown) to push Jeter down below the HOF in/out line (counting active guys, there's probably 250-300 HOF-level MLB players in history).
   64. Kiko Sakata Posted: February 14, 2014 at 09:40 PM (#4657198)
Somebody mentioned Tony Gwynn upthread. BB-Ref is sort of neutral on Gwynn's defense (+6 for his career); with positional adjustments, that works out to a dWAR of -8.3. For his career, BB-Ref shows Jeter as +366 w/ the bat and +62 running (including DP-avoidance) in 11,968 PAs. Gwynn rates at +402/+29 in 10,232 PAs. Is Tony Gwynn in your Hall-of-Fame?
   65. AROM Posted: February 14, 2014 at 10:02 PM (#4657202)
I'll take a stab at how crowded the 2020 ballot will be. First, assume these guys get in before then:

2015 Randy, Pedro, Biggio
2016 Griffey, Bagwell, Piazza
2017 Raines, Schilling (I-Rod is top newcomer, so this year might be kind to some of the guys waiting for votes)
2018 Thome, Chipper
2019 Mo (Maybe Thome waits a year and goes here)

Now the 2020 candidates:

Slam dunk: Jeter
Good chance at some point: Halladay, Moose, Ivan Rodriguez
Moderate chance: Bonds, Clemens (ain't right but that's the reality of it), Walker, Smoltz, Edgar, Edmonds, Guerrero, Vizquel
Low chance: Pettitte, Rolen, Manny, McGwire, Sheffield, Kent, Sosa

Yeah, I could see a hardcore stat guy passing on Jeter, thinking his D is overrated by the stats and finding a bunch of other 60-70 WAR guys to vote for. Such people are a small enough part of the voting that they can't elect candidates opposed by the mainstream, but they will keep Jeter from challenging a record vote. My guess is he ends up closer to 90% than 100%.

   66. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: February 14, 2014 at 10:12 PM (#4657203)
I assume he would have been more valuable to the Yankees at second base for most of his career. Is there any way to run that hypothetical?
Not that this really matters, of course, but it seems to me that second base would be one of the worst places to move Jeter. You still have the range issues, and it would be wasteful of one his defensive strengths (his arm). If I could waive a wand and put Jeter anywhere, it would've been in CF. If you want to keep him in the infield, it seems like third base is the spot.
   67. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: February 14, 2014 at 10:34 PM (#4657207)
No argument there, but even Sean would run the risk of getting himself branded for trying to make a point that could have been equally made by omitting a less deserving player. By leaving off Jeter but continuing to vote for a player with no chance of getting elected, you're drawing more attention to yourself than to your point.

Not if you come out and provide a reasoned defense of your point. I think an issue here is we're used to BBWAA members main defense as "it's my vote, I can do whatever the hell I want with it", with variations among that mindset ranging from the Chass, to the Gomez, to the Gurnick. In fact, if Sean did get criticized for his vote, I'd have no problem if his only response was "Chass, Gomez, Gurnick."


Which would make him look as if he were either using ad hominem attacks against fellow writers, or using the lamest voters in the universe to wrap around himself. I doubt if Sean would exhibit cluelessness on that level just in order to be the object of one of Sugar Bear's boners.

We've come to expect that a handful of writers will make deliberately provocative votes (or abstentions) with the primary idea of gathering attention. And no matter how carefully Sean expresses his reasoning, he'd almost certainly wind up being lumped with the Chasses if he started making references to them.

This is about the only way I could see him "getting away" with not voting for Jeter, and obviously I don't mean that literally:

1. "Derek Jeter is a slam dunk Hall of Famer, and in the one in a million chance he doesn't deservedly get elected on the first ballot, of course I'll vote for him next year.

2. "That said, since we all know that he's going to be elected by a nearly unanimous vote, I intend to cast my "Jeter" ballot for Scott Rolen**, an unfairly neglected candidate whose skills have been overlooked because......"

3. "I'm doing this also to call attention to the silly 10-vote limitation on the ballot, which makes this vote the only way to call attention to Scott Rolen."

It may or may not work, but at least he wouldn't sound like Chass, or like some of the people posting here today, whose little girlish contempt for Jeter and the Yankees doesn't even have a fig leaf's worth of covering.

**Or whatever candidate Sean might feel needs this shout out the most by 2020.
   68. JJ1986 Posted: February 14, 2014 at 10:50 PM (#4657208)
There could easily be 10 candidates that a voter thinks are more deserving than Jeter still around on the 2020 ballot. Bonds, Clemens, A-Rod, Piazza, Mussina, Schilling, Smoltz, Chipper Jones, Thome and Bagwell.
   69. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: February 14, 2014 at 10:54 PM (#4657210)
There could easily be 10 candidates that a voter thinks are more deserving than Jeter still around on the 2020 ballot. Bonds, Clemens, A-Rod, Piazza, Mussina, Schilling, Smoltz, Chipper Jones, Thome and Bagwell.

Well, if he feels that's the case, then as I said, go for it. But then he'd be best to stress that the real problem is the ten vote limitation, not Derek Jeter's lack of qualifications.
   70. Howie Menckel Posted: February 14, 2014 at 11:01 PM (#4657211)

65: You are severely underestimating Smoltz's chances.
   71. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: February 14, 2014 at 11:25 PM (#4657213)
If you put down a deposit on a hotel room in Cooperstown for July 2020, it’s good as gold.


I wonder if you can actually do this, and if so how many people would. I know that some places in Gettysburg took nonrefundable deposits on rooms for last summer's 150th anniversary (what do they call that, a sesquicentennial or something?) three and four years in advance and at very high rates.
   72. bookbook Posted: February 15, 2014 at 12:06 AM (#4657218)
I'm sure you're right about Rolen, but he's got a better case than a number of the moderate case guys, kind of an opposite of Jeter case.

Edit: Also, slam dunk: Ichiro!
   73. Walt Davis Posted: February 15, 2014 at 12:19 AM (#4657220)
Yeah, I brought up Rose and Gwynn to get at those "what if Jeter played elsewhere" arguments. All through age 39

Jeter: 312/381/446, 117, 366 Rbat, -9.2 dWAR, 72 WAR in about 12000 PA at SS
Rose: 310/380/428, 124, 390 Rbat, -6.5 dWAR, 80 WAR in about 13000 PA at 2B/3B/LF/RF/1B
Gwynn: 339/389/459, 133, 395 Rbat, -7.7 dWAR, 68 WAR in about 10000 PA at RF and one season in CF
Raines: 295/385/427, 124, 292 Rbat, -9.4 dWAR, 69 WAR in about 10000 PA at LF and one season in CF
Murray: 290/362/482, 133, 415 Rbat, -11.2 dWAR, 69 WAR in about 12000 PA at 1B/DH
Alomar: 300/371/443, 116, 240 Rbat, 2.4 dWAR, 67 WAR in about 10000 PA at 2B
Dawson: 280/324/484, 120, 235 Rbat, 2.4 dWAR, 65 WAR in about 10500 PA at CF/RF
Winfield: 285/354/479, 133, 399 Rbat, -19.5 dWAR, 61 WAR in about 10500 PA at RF/LF/CF (not really a DH until 40)
Yount: 285/342/430, 115, 232 Rbat, 5.8 dWAR, 77 WAR in about 12000 PA at SS/CF
Molitor: 308/372/452, 125, 360 Rbat, -5.6 dWAR, 74 WAR in about 11000 PA at 3B/2B/1B/DH

That gives Molitor as the top comp. Yount is also a good comp -- 422 Rrep for Yount vs. 416 for Jeter but a higher run-win conversion for Yount. That's your better defense in exchange for better offense (OBP) comparison. Guys like Gwynn and Raines would be ahead with pro-rated PAs (Jeter's great durability, labor issues, etc.) but not necessarily massively so (depends on quality assumed for those PAs).

Now it's likely the perception of Jeter would have been a lot different as an OF -- but any of you who're gonna argue he wouldn't make it as an LF/RF, please remember those arguments when Ichiro hits the ballot. :-)

Gwynn, Raines, Molitor, Yount, Alomar -- not exactly borderline candidates by BBWAA standards except for Raines. With 3300 hits, nearly 1900 runs scored, I think Jeter makes it no matter where he played.

And one of the nice things about Jeter is we don't need to speculate about his durability. He's been incredibly durable while playing the toughest position. There's no reason to think he might have played less if he'd played elsewhere. Contrast to Molitor playing or Yount staying at SS.
   74. Walt Davis Posted: February 15, 2014 at 12:20 AM (#4657222)
If you put down a deposit on a hotel room in Cooperstown for July 2020, it’s good as gold.

As we know from the pension thread, you'd be a fool to believe they would ever honor a reservation made 6 years in advance.
   75. Howie Menckel Posted: February 15, 2014 at 12:36 AM (#4657226)

They are telling people to call back a year in advance.
   76. Best Regards, President of Comfort Posted: February 15, 2014 at 12:51 AM (#4657232)
I wonder if you can actually do this, and if so how many people would. I know that some places in Gettysburg took nonrefundable deposits on rooms for last summer's 150th anniversary (what do they call that, a sesquicentennial or something?) three and four years in advance and at very high rates.


Suckers. Get a place in York, and drive 45 minutes each day.
   77. Gonfalon B. Posted: February 15, 2014 at 01:21 AM (#4657236)
Where would Jeter rank among his fellow 3,000-hit players? Somewhere around 20th-23rd (of 28)?
   78. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: February 15, 2014 at 02:16 AM (#4657240)
Where would Jeter rank among his fellow 3,000-hit players? Somewhere around 20th-23rd (of 28)?

by WAR, he's 22nd out of 27
   79. bobm Posted: February 15, 2014 at 02:27 AM (#4657242)
Where would Jeter rank among his fellow 3,000-hit players? Somewhere around 20th-23rd (of 28)?

Yes, by WAR. 24th by OPS+, 10th by oWAR and 17th by PA.

                                                                                
Rk             Player WAR/pos    H  oWAR OPS+  dWAR   Age    G    PA         Pos
1         Willie Mays   155.9 3283 136.2  156  17.9 20-42 2992 12496   *8H/39675
2             Ty Cobb   151.2 4189 151.1  168 -10.8 18-41 3034 13082  *89/H73145
3          Hank Aaron   142.3 3771 131.5  155  -5.0 20-42 3298 13941  *9783DH/45
4        Tris Speaker   134.0 3514 123.6  157   2.3 19-40 2790 11992    *8/H3971
5        Honus Wagner   130.4 3420 122.4  151  21.4 23-43 2794 11748  *6935/8471
6         Stan Musial   128.2 3630 124.5  159  -9.2 20-42 3026 12717     3798H/1
7       Eddie Collins   123.9 3315 119.7  142   7.8 19-43 2825 12041   *4/H69875
8    Rickey Henderson   110.6 3055 104.1  127  -3.5 20-44 3081 13346     *78HD/9
9          Nap Lajoie   107.2 3243  97.6  150  10.0 21-41 2480 10460   *43/65987
10   Carl Yastrzemski    96.0 3419  77.7  130   0.3 21-43 3308 13992   *73D8/H59
11         Cal Ripken    95.5 3184  77.2  112  34.5 20-40 3001 12883      *65/DH
12   Roberto Clemente    94.4 3000  70.8  130  11.9 20-37 2433 10211    *9/H8745
13          Al Kaline    92.6 3007  78.0  134   2.4 18-39 2834 11596   *98HD3/75
14         Wade Boggs    91.0 3010  80.4  131  12.9 24-41 2440 10740    *5DH/317
15       George Brett    88.4 3154  84.0  135   1.2 20-40 2707 11625   *5D3/H796
16          Cap Anson    84.6 3012  81.6  141   4.5 24-45 2277 10123 *35/2746819
17          Rod Carew    81.0 3053  80.6  131  -2.4 21-39 2469 10550    34H/D657
18          Pete Rose    79.8 4256  82.5  118 -14.0 22-45 3562 15890    37549H/8
19        Robin Yount    77.0 3142  82.2  115   5.8 18-37 2856 12249    *68D/7H3
20       Paul Molitor    75.5 3319  74.9  122  -8.1 21-41 2683 12167  D543/68H79
21         Paul Waner    72.8 3152  71.5  134  -9.6 23-42 2550 10766     *9H/378
22    Rafael Palmeiro    71.8 3020  66.9  132 -11.6 21-40 2831 12046    *3D7/H98
23        Derek Jeter    71.5 3316  94.0  117  -9.2 21-39 2602 11968       *6/DH
24         Tony Gwynn    68.9 3141  66.4  132  -8.2 22-41 2440 10232     *98H/7D
25       Eddie Murray    68.0 3255  61.3  129 -12.8 21-41 3026 12817     *3D/H57
Rk             Player WAR/pos    H  oWAR OPS+  dWAR   Age    G    PA         Pos
26       Craig Biggio    64.8 3060  74.8  112  -3.9 22-41 2850 12504   *4287/HD9
27      Dave Winfield    63.9 3110  73.3  130 -23.8 21-43 2973 12358   *97D8H/35
28          Lou Brock    45.2 3023  48.5  109 -17.1 22-40 2616 11240       *79H8


EDIT: Half a Shirley Temple to Pasta-diving Jeter
   80. bobm Posted: February 15, 2014 at 02:34 AM (#4657245)
Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1876 to 2013, Played 50% of games at 2B or SS, (requiring H>=3000), sorted by smallest Defensive WAR

                                                             
Rk          Player dWAR    H  oWAR OPS+   Age    G        Pos
1      Derek Jeter -9.2 3316  94.0  117 21-39 2602      *6/DH
2     Craig Biggio -3.9 3060  74.8  112 22-41 2850  *4287/HD9
3      Robin Yount  5.8 3142  82.2  115 18-37 2856   *68D/7H3
4    Eddie Collins  7.8 3315 119.7  142 19-43 2825  *4/H69875
5       Nap Lajoie 10.0 3243  97.6  150 21-41 2480  *43/65987
6     Honus Wagner 21.4 3420 122.4  151 23-43 2794 *6935/8471
7       Cal Ripken 34.5 3184  77.2  112 20-40 3001     *65/DH


   81. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: February 15, 2014 at 07:58 AM (#4657255)
Derek Jeter -9.2 dWAR
Dave Winfield -23.8 dWAR.

No way.
   82. Michael J. Binkley's anxiety closet Posted: February 15, 2014 at 08:59 AM (#4657257)
Derek Jeter -9.2 dWAR
Dave Winfield -23.8 dWAR.

No way.


That's only because the positional adjustment is also included in dWAR. The difference between SS and RF basically switches their Rfield (Jeter:-234 and Winfield:-91.)
   83. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: February 15, 2014 at 09:18 AM (#4657261)
That's only because the positional adjustment is also included in dWAR. The difference between SS and RF basically switches their Rfield (Jeter:-234 and Winfield:-91.)

So it sounds like the logic goes something like:

"Jeter played shortstop way worse than Winfield played the outfield."

"Yeah, but Jeter played shortstop."

Um ... yeah??
   84. gehrig97 Posted: February 15, 2014 at 09:46 AM (#4657264)
I'll take a flyer on the statistical arguments. For me, it boils down to this: On a positional basis, he was a great hitter, sub-par defender, excellent baserunner, obviously a very high baseball IQ. He is not, as Verducci breathlessly claims, "the finest player of his generation" or "the best shortstop since Wagner" (not even close on both counts).

BUT... as someone who discounts things like "intangibles" and "character", I have to say, I've never seen such an overwhelming, universal outpouring of admiration for a player... by opposing players and coaches. I've been gorging myself on Jeter coverage the last few days and I simply can't believe the praise he's getting from people outside of the Yankees organization--this goes way beyond the typical "he played with class", "tough opponent"-type stuff attendant to every great player's retirement.

Pujols' beatification of Jeter aside, maybe there IS something to "intangibles" that non-players just can't/won't understand. The man has 3300+ hits, and all anyone is talking about is his leadership, character, and the myriad ways "he helped his team win". Everybody--everybody--is holding him up as the model for what "a player should be."

Does this make up for his terrible range at SS? Does it make him a more valuable player than WAR suggests? I just don't know--the empiricist in me wants quantifiable proof. But part of me wonders if there isn't an amplifier effect connected to his "intangibles." I KNOW that players understand the game in a much different, much deeper way than fans and writers -- maybe we ARE missing something here.
   85. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: February 15, 2014 at 09:51 AM (#4657266)
Suckers. Get a place in York, and drive 45 minutes each day.


Some people were staying in Lancaster and driving an hour 20 each day, which presumably means everywhere in York was sold out too.

And on that particular week it would have been more like an hour 15 from York because Gettysburg is, um, not designed for many thousands of vehicles trying to get there and park at once.
   86. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: February 15, 2014 at 09:56 AM (#4657269)
The real intangibles that helped Jeter's teams win were the Yankees' massive financial resources.

He's obviously a HOFer, but he also helps point out some circularities and tautologies with WAR. He really didn't belong at SS and it's unlikely that he would have been able to play the OF as well as Dave Winfield -- a great athlete and perennial Gold Glover in his prime. So it's hard to see why he would get so much relative credit for simply standing at a position where he didn't belong.

Winfield's probably not a good example because he's too tall(*), but there are clearly plenty of players who played the OF or 3B that could have played SS better than Derek Jeter. Why should Jeter get credit over them?

(*) But who knows? I can certainly conceive of the possibility that Winfield could have been a better SS than Jeter.
   87. gehrig97 Posted: February 15, 2014 at 10:16 AM (#4657272)
The real intangibles that helped Jeter's teams win were the Yankees' massive financial resources.


The Yanks' resources allowed them to keep their homegrown, elite players, add the right parts (Cone, O'Neill, Tino, etc) and sustain their dynasty... but they don't have a thing to do with how Jeter is perceived by his peers.

FWIW, dWAR thinks Winfield was a terrible (-23.7 wins!) outfielder. Like, historically bad. He was, of course, one of the best athletes to ever play baseball.
   88. JE (Jason Epstein) Posted: February 15, 2014 at 10:30 AM (#4657273)
The Yanks' resources allowed them to keep their homegrown, elite players, add the right parts (Cone, O'Neill, Tino, etc) and sustain their dynasty... but they don't have a thing to do with how Jeter is perceived by his peers.

The resources also enabled the club to sign Jeter to a very expensive 10-year contract extension without blinking an eyelash.
   89. gehrig97 Posted: February 15, 2014 at 11:12 AM (#4657302)
Yep--"allowed them to keep their homegrown players." Again, not sure what that has to do with how he's perceived by his peers.



   90. JE (Jason Epstein) Posted: February 15, 2014 at 11:21 AM (#4657312)
Again, not sure what that has to do with how he's perceived by his peers.

I don't doubt much of the popularity of Jeter is organic but the hype has snowballed over time, resulting in players trying to outdo one another with their praise.
   91. cmd600 Posted: February 15, 2014 at 12:26 PM (#4657327)
67 - Of course I agree with that, it's pretty much what I already said. Especially in that first line that you quoted then proceeded to ignore.

Referring to what you chose to respond to, my point was that if Sean used his position to point out the incompetence of other BBWAA voters, I would greatly enjoy it, not that it would be the most effective use of his chance to speak out.
   92. Publius Publicola Posted: February 15, 2014 at 12:32 PM (#4657329)
IMO, firsat ballot hall of famers should be complete players, like Mays and Speaker and Ripken. Jeter was not a complete player. His defense prevented him from being that.

Ozzie Smith has a whopping 614 RAA advantage on him.
   93. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: February 15, 2014 at 12:39 PM (#4657333)
IMO, firsat ballot hall of famers should be complete players, like Mays and Speaker and Ripken. Jeter was not a complete player. His defense prevented him from being that.

Ozzie Smith has a whopping 614 RAA advantage on him.


That would be first-ballot Hall of Famer and 87 OPS+ hitter Ozzie Smith.
   94. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: February 15, 2014 at 12:48 PM (#4657336)
IMO, firsat ballot hall of famers should be complete players, like Mays and Speaker and Ripken. Jeter was not a complete player.

"Complete players", eh? Please tell us about the marvelous fielding and / or baserunning talents of Ted Williams, Reggie Jackson, Willie Stargell, Brooks Robinson and a guy named Ruth. And you might also sing the virtues of an 87 OPS+ career average while you're at it.

(EDIT: coke to SoSH.)

And please don't try to change this into a point about overall value, because that's not the point you just raised. "Complete players" excel in hitting for average / OBP, power hitting, fielding, arm strength, and running speed / baserunning skills, not just two or three of them, and truly "complete" players are a lot rarer than is commonly supposed.
   95. AROM Posted: February 15, 2014 at 12:50 PM (#4657337)
Winfield's D rating was bad (-27) through age 34 but not horrible. When he was winning gold gloves with the Yankees Bill James, whose defensive stats also were not kind to Winfield, speculated that he was playing too deep. He was trading a bunch of hits in front of him so he could make a few spectacular HR saving catches per year.

Winfield's defensive stats are awful in his late 30's, especially his two years with the Angels. Considering he was 38 years old and coming back from missing a full season to back surgery, those numbers are very easy to believe. He should have been a DH a bit earlier than he was.
   96. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: February 15, 2014 at 12:55 PM (#4657340)
The problem is that WAR implicitly assumes that a SS could have played LF even better. But that assumption can only be valid for people that show some baseline competency at SS. Jeter never showed that he could play any position on the baseball field competently and therefore we shouldn't assume he could have. The fact that he was miscast as a SS instead of, say, a LF or 1B doesn't change that.
   97. BDC Posted: February 15, 2014 at 01:11 PM (#4657344)
Another way of looking at it: the most similar OPS+ to Jeter's 117 among long-career 1B and LF:

Player          WAR/pos    PA OPS+  SB       Pos
Ernie Banks        67.7 10394  122  50    36
/H57
Tony Perez         54.1 10861  122  49   
*35H/D4
Luis Gonzalez      51.3 10531  119 128 
*7H/D9835
Joe Judge          47.0  9178  114 213     
*3/H9
Mark Grace         46.1  9290  119  70    
*3H/1D
Al Oliver          43.1  9778  121  84   837DH
/9
Steve Garvey       37.5  9466  117  83 
*35/H7649
Mickey Vernon      34.6  9838  116 137    
*3H/79 


Banks is not really that apposite, since his career consists of a SS half where he hit much better than Jeter and a 1B half where he actually hit worse.

Peerz is the only other HOFer, and an outer-circle one, but in the Hall for his associations with a dynasty: Jeter has that factor going for him.

Jeter's also a better baserunner than the comps.

And you have to factor in that Jeter has almost 12,000 PAs, far more than the comps. He wouldn't have had a ton of oWAR in LF or 1B, but if he'd hit .312 over 17 full seasons, I really think he would have kept a job in one of those positions, where he'd have been adequate defensively. At 1B he'd have been a Joe Judge or a Mark Grace with several more seasons and tons more base hits. There aren't any players like that, but if there had been, he'd be a Hall of Famer, without a doubt.
   98. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: February 15, 2014 at 01:23 PM (#4657348)
At 1B he'd have been a Joe Judge or a Mark Grace with several more seasons and tons more base hits. There aren't any players like that, but if there had been, he'd be a Hall of Famer, without a doubt.

Defaulting to Mark Grace-caliber defense at 1B is a massive stretch. Which sort of proves up the point -- Jeter's career OPS+ is lower than Grace's, and Grace was almost certainly vastly superior defensively. Jeter does, obviously, have a baserunning and longevity advantage.
   99. Non-Youkilidian Geometry Posted: February 15, 2014 at 01:25 PM (#4657349)
Complete players", eh? Please tell us about the marvelous fielding and / or baserunning talents of Ted Williams, Reggie Jackson, Willie Stargell, Brooks Robinson and a guy named Ruth.

Fielding and baserunning may not have been the Babe's forte, but to me his pitching line makes him a lot more of a "complete player" than probably anyone else in the HoF.
   100. Ron J2 Posted: February 15, 2014 at 01:36 PM (#4657352)
#99 Pretty decent fielder when young. Played more than a little center in the early 20s.
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