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Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Shysterball: Beanster: The Alyssa Milano Effect

BAH! The Maimed Van Doren Effect busted up a lot more pitchers!! Why…why..Gene Brabender was never the same again!

I don’t believe the Alyssa Effect has received sufficient attention by the statistical community. I took a closer look at the data based on dating information provided by this site.

While only 3 of her 26 documented relationships are major league starting pitchers, I think the results are interesting and reasonably predictive in the event she reneges on her 2008 pledge to swear off dating baseball players.

Exhibit A: Carl Pavano (2003)
During their 2003 relationship, Pavano made 33 starts and posting 12 wins with a 4.30 ERA (33/12/4.30). In 2004 after their breakup he improved dramatically to (31/18/3.00). However this euphoria proved short lived, as Yankee fans can attest, and he regressed in 2005 to (17/4/4.77).

Exhibit B: Barry Zito (2004-05)
Zito’s dating numbers averaged (34.5/12.5/4.53), remarkably similar to Pavano’s. After the breakup he also improved in 2006 to (34/16/3.83), nearly as big an improvement as Pavano’s. What happened the year after? You guessed it, regression to (33/11/4.53).

Exhibit C: Brad Penny (2006)
Penny’s dating year of 2006 was also an unspectacular (29/7/3.90). He then experienced what I am now terming the Milano Bounce with a nice (33/16/4.33) and continued this into 2008 with a (33/16/3.03). Because we are not using precise dates on the relationship, the numbers are only estimates but it appears Brad remained mentally strong for a longer period before succumbing to the inevitable Milano Meltdown with a 2009 line of (19/6/6.27).

Thanks to Rob Neyer.

Repoz Posted: February 25, 2009 at 07:06 PM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: fantasy baseball, history, projections, sabermetrics, zips

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. The elusive Robert Denby Posted: February 25, 2009 at 07:21 PM (#3086082)
Alyssa Milano - talent succubus.
   2. Mirabelli Dictu (Chris McClinch) Posted: February 25, 2009 at 07:49 PM (#3086137)
If this one doesn't merit the "Sabrmetrics" tag, then the tag has lost all meaning.
   3. UCCF Posted: February 25, 2009 at 07:55 PM (#3086148)
The Milano Bounce is maybe her best asset. Go rent Embrace of the Vampire and tell me I'm wrong.
   4. Alberto Gilardino Posted: February 25, 2009 at 07:57 PM (#3086156)
Alyssa, I'd like to you meet Timmy. He has a nice house by the bay.
   5. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: February 25, 2009 at 08:02 PM (#3086167)
So I guess Alyssa should be a controlled substance covered by the collective bargaining agreement.
   6. Swedish Chef Posted: February 25, 2009 at 08:05 PM (#3086171)
Bah, Alyssa better get to work establishing a statistically significant sample.
   7. Craig Calcaterra Posted: February 25, 2009 at 08:13 PM (#3086186)
I want Tom Glavine to have an affair with her right now and break it off by the time the Braves head north next month. That way, we'd get the bounce for 2009, and since he's only on a one-year deal, we don't care about the Milano Meltdown in 2010.

Of course, putting Glavine with Milano might just give the old guy a heart attack, so maybe that's not a great idea.
   8. Tripon Posted: February 25, 2009 at 08:29 PM (#3086216)
Alyssa Milano is now married.
   9. bfan Posted: February 25, 2009 at 08:34 PM (#3086226)
I would take an off-year for an on year, if you know what I mean.
   10. scotto Posted: February 25, 2009 at 08:36 PM (#3086227)
Tony Conigliaro had a couple of dates with Mamie Van Doren, according to his bio "Seeing It Through". As with most of his life, it didn't work out.

RIP, Tony.
   11. Francoeur Sans Gages (AlouGoodbye) Posted: February 25, 2009 at 08:38 PM (#3086237)
According to wikipedia, she's only engaged, so there's still hope. But didn't Glavine and Milano already have an affair? Why isn't he on this list?

And didn't she date Russel Martin? Maybe she just prefers pitchers to catchers.
   12. Styles P. Deadball Posted: February 25, 2009 at 08:39 PM (#3086238)
Bah, Alyssa better get to work establishing a statistically significant sample.


Geez, 26 documented relationships doesn't cut it? Or do you just want more ballplayers?
   13. Tripon Posted: February 25, 2009 at 08:44 PM (#3086249)
And didn't she date Russel Martin? Maybe she just prefers pitchers to catchers.

Apparently, they were just hanging out.
   14. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: February 25, 2009 at 08:48 PM (#3086256)
Tony Conigliaro had a couple of dates with Mamie Van Doren, according to his bio "Seeing It Through". As with most of his life, it didn't work out

Tony C? Really?

was this before or after Bo Belinsky?

EDIT: I should make it clear that I meant Belinsky-Van Doren and not Bo-Tony C
   15. Craig Calcaterra Posted: February 25, 2009 at 08:49 PM (#3086258)
I'm not sure where the Glavine rumor came from. I've heard it before, but hasn't Glavine been married since Milano was a minor? Maybe I'm wrong about that, though.
   16. scotto Posted: February 25, 2009 at 08:54 PM (#3086266)
I have no idea, jmac66. I had an autographed copy of his book when I was a kid, and remember his mentioning Mamie VD in it. I don't recall the date of the dates. He also mentioned going out with some chick who tied off and shot up in his car. He dropped her off immediately, according to the book.

My dad got me the autographed copy. The book got stolen along with a bunch of other books I owned when my college co-op was renovated. A first edition of the Lincoln-Douglas Senate debates that I was given by my grandfather was also lost.

That sucked, but it doesn't compare to what Tony C went through.
   17. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: February 25, 2009 at 09:06 PM (#3086275)
this site says that Tony C & Van Doren "had a few dates" in 1965
   18. Styles P. Deadball Posted: February 25, 2009 at 10:10 PM (#3086367)
A first edition of the Lincoln-Douglas Senate debates that I was given by my grandfather was also lost.


I guess I'll stop whining about those early nineties hockey cards that got destroyed in the flood...
   19. Mirabelli Dictu (Chris McClinch) Posted: February 25, 2009 at 10:32 PM (#3086399)
Bah, Alyssa better get to work establishing a statistically significant sample.


Dude, once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is a trend. Sounds statistically significant to me.
   20. zonk Posted: February 25, 2009 at 10:49 PM (#3086426)
The Milano Bounce is maybe her best asset. Go rent Embrace of the Vampire and tell me I'm wrong.


Rent? I own the special edition.
   21. Obama Bomaye Posted: February 25, 2009 at 10:59 PM (#3086450)
I seem to recall it was on one of those who's-dated-who websites that for some reason was linked here a year or so back. No one was sure where that info came from then, either.
   22. The District Attorney Posted: February 25, 2009 at 11:12 PM (#3086468)
I own the special edition.
What makes it so special?
   23. villageidiom Posted: February 25, 2009 at 11:19 PM (#3086480)
The only term I got straight A's in college was the one immediately after I broke up with my girlfriend.

EDIT: For the record, I did not date Alyssa Milano.
   24. Dr. House Posted: February 25, 2009 at 11:24 PM (#3086490)
What makes it so special?


Stain resistant DVD box.
   25. TerpNats Posted: February 25, 2009 at 11:34 PM (#3086501)
IIRC, the careers of Brady Anderson and Mark Langston tanked after appearing on "Sabrina." It's obvious ballplayers should have nothing to do with TV witches.
   26. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: February 25, 2009 at 11:48 PM (#3086525)
I seem to recall it was on one of those who's-dated-who websites that for some reason was linked here a year or so back. No one was sure where that info came from then, either.


Yes it was. And some SF Chronicle blog took the information from this extraordinarily loosely sourced blog as evidence of Glavine and Milano's past. As far as could be figured at the time, there really was no validity to it.
   27. zonk Posted: February 26, 2009 at 12:15 AM (#3086560)
What makes it so special?


Special behind the scenes looks at Milano's breasts.
   28. thread killer Posted: February 26, 2009 at 12:35 AM (#3086572)
I thought it was because they had a special audio commentary section by her breasts throughout the movie?
   29. The NeverEnding Torii (oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh) Posted: February 26, 2009 at 01:04 AM (#3086599)
Her breasts are the only things Alyssa Milano-related that HAVEN'T flopped yet.

Also, maybe I'm a weirdo but I think I'd pay money to see the Milano Bounce meet The Colbert Bump.
   30. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: February 26, 2009 at 01:36 AM (#3086621)
Tony Conigliaro had a couple of dates with Mamie Van Doren, according to his bio "Seeing It Through".

Back in the day, she could really knock your eye out.
   31. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: February 26, 2009 at 01:44 AM (#3086624)
you will burn in hell, GB

(but I spect you already knew that)

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