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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Us SLOBS…forgotten again.
In fact, the above chart of walks per plate appearance below doesn’t support that line of thinking. While the amount of walks has fluctuated over the past 30 years, there’s certainly no evidence that walks are overrunning the game. Walk rates peaked in 2000—three years before Moneyball hit the shelves. Last season, seven years after the book’s debut, players walked no more than they did during parts of the mid-1980’s, when nobody had ever heard of OPS and Bill James was just an egghead who couldn’t know a thing about the game because he had never played it.
...In all, the fact that teams are now using more sophisticated statistical analysis has a very small effect on the look and feel of the game. For fans uninterested in sabermetric ideas, all of that statistical inside baseball can remain, well, inside baseball. The types of players who play the game and the way they perform on the field has remained remarkably constant in the face of this new style of thinking. While teams may now better understand the true value of Franklin Gutierrez’s defense in center field or the value of Kevin Youkilis’ walks, good players continue to come in all shapes and sizes. The main difference is that rather than being undervalued, these players now earn money in proportion to the value they bring to their club.
Regardless of current statistical thinking, the variety of types of players that populate the major leagues has not and will not change significantly. The only difference is that the advanced numbers have been able to more accurately assess the value of each player. While that’s useful, it’s not going to affect the view from grandstand. Juiced balls, a changing strike zone, artificial turf, steroids and the height of the mound all changed the aesthetics of the game far more dramatically than subtle shifts in statistical analysis ever will. While Moneyball may have changed the landscape of the game inside front offices and in the media, traditionalists can breathe easy that the sabermetric revolution has not dramatically changed the on-field product, and likely never will.
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1. AROM Posted: January 28, 2010 at 06:49 PM (#3448753)League walk rates tell you nothing about how walks are valued. 30 teams could, overnight, decide that walks are the greatest and try to get as many walk-takers in the lineup as possible. And those same teams would realize that walks by the other team hurt them, so they sign guys like Joel Piniero or emphasize getting ahead in the count to the pitchers they have.
The point of Moneyball is that at any given time, ASPECTS of the game will undervalued, and that if you can try to find players who are undervalued at a given time---at the time of Moneyball it was players who walked a lot---while other teams are focusing on other types of players, then in theory you can amass that asset more cheaply than other, possibly more expensive assets (like power, or speed, or groundball pitchers, etc.).
No one suggests that there aren't many types of good players, who each may have a different, equally productive (scoring or preventing runs) mix of skills, but Moneyball is about discerning within a market which of those skills can yield the most bang for the buck, and then trying to collect players with those undervalued skills.
I think that's the point that is easiest to crossover into non-sports-related fields of study.
No, if everyone started playing Moneyball -- which seems, in this instance, to be a euphemism for properly valuing players with OBP skills -- then the league's existing "nonathletic, one-dimensional fat guys" would eventually be equally dispersed throughout the league rather than concentrated on one team. And then those teams, like Oakland, which were able to find an edge in one place would have to start looking for an edge in another place, perhaps the pursuit of undervalued defensive whizzes.
And thank God. This is what sets baseball apart and, in my opinion, makes it much more interesting than the other majors.
"People in both fields operate with beliefs and biases. To the extent that you can eliminate both and replace them with data, you gain a clear advantage."
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