S.I.: Donovan: Which playoff teams have what it takes to win it all?

Or as King Donovan (as Ramblin’ Jack Belicec) said…“Stop trying to rationalize everything, will ya? Let’s face it, we have a mystery on our hands!”

Every time you think you have a handle on what it takes to win in baseball’s postseason, along comes, say, the 2006 Cardinals, the 1988 Dodgers or the ‘87 Twins, to prove there’s no sure-fire way to pick a World Series winner. Success in the playoffs, in many ways, comes down to a roll of the dice. Luck will play as big a part in the next three weeks as a clever manager, a deep bench or a slugger on a tear.

Still, there are smart ways to pick the teams that will fare best in the playoffs. Nate Silver and the hard-thinkers over at Baseball Prospectus have looked at tons of data and come up with a formula that identifies the three main characteristics of a successful playoff team. They are:

1. Pitchers that strike out batters.

2. A stud closer.

3. A good defense.

You might notice there’s no mention of home runs or the ability to squeeze a guy to second with one out against a left-hander. There’s not anything in there about crafty managers or experience or a versatile bench, either. Momentum? History? Don’t even bother. Speed? Pssh. Clutchness? Please, save it.