|
|
|
|
Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Tuesday, November 14, 2006
That’s why I say Heyman nice shot
Nice shot man
|
Support BBTF
Thanks to
Mike Emeigh
for his generous support.
Bookmarks
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
Hot Topics
Newsblog: OMNICHATTER for MAY 18, 2013 (55 - 6:22pm, May 18)Last: cardsfanboyNewsblog: SoE (Megdal): It's Time to Finally Believe in the Orioles (3 - 6:21pm, May 18)Last: AROMNewsblog: Holmes: Where does Miguel Cabrera rank among Tiger greats? (16 - 6:19pm, May 18)Last: Misirlou is bad, he's nationwideNewsblog: BBTF SOFTBALL GAME IN NEW YORK--AUG 17 (289 - 6:18pm, May 18)Last: Dock Ellis on AcidNewsblog: Pinstriped Bible: Albin: Is Ichiro done? (45 - 6:15pm, May 18)Last: Walt DavisNewsblog: Josh Hamilton's allergies not linked to drug use, doctors say (34 - 6:06pm, May 18)Last: ellsbury my heart at wounded kneeNewsblog: PressBox: Boog Powell: Meat Of The Order (8 - 5:57pm, May 18)Last: Misirlou is bad, he's nationwideNewsblog: Powerball odds? Juan Pierre's homers are long shots, too (10 - 5:43pm, May 18)Last: BhaakonNewsblog: Babcock: Can The 2013 Cubs Channel The Turnaround Artists Of 1967? (6 - 5:39pm, May 18)Last: BhaakonNewsblog: [OTP-May] Politico: Congressional baseball game, May 1, 1926 (3265 - 5:31pm, May 18)Last: Joe KehoskieHall of Merit: Most Meritorious Player: 1982 Discussion (46 - 5:07pm, May 18)Last: MontyNewsblog: Townsend: Troy Tulowitzki denies accusing Madison Bumgarner of doctoring baseballs (1 - 5:00pm, May 18)Last: KT's Pot ArbNewsblog: BPro: Listen to What the Heyman Said (186 - 3:15pm, May 18)Last: David Nieporent (now, with children)Newsblog: Generation K: Baseball’s strikeout trend is growing at record pace (57 - 2:55pm, May 18)Last: Mike EmeighNewsblog: MLB: Talking past, present and future with Ryne Sandberg (14 - 11:58am, May 18)Last: Karl from NY
|
|
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
Did I say they would be? I just said I'd rather do that than see Victor Zambrano back. But then, I'd rather see Craig Swan and Skip Lockwood in the rotation than Zambrano, and Lockwood wasn't even a starter (at least not when he was a Met).
In reality, I don't expect any of those things to happen. I hope Pelfrey is in the rotation, but if he is it'll be as the # 5 starter and Humber will be in the minors. Even more likely, I'm afraid, is that Pelfrey will start the year in New Orleans.
Correction, $48.9M for the Player Development Machine.
IF that were true, then their plan will backfire. Because it certainly appears, from all the rumors, that the Yankees were NOT the # 2 bidders, and the best way to keep Matsuzaka away from them would have been to let him sign with the Mets. If they blow it, he'll be a FA next year, and odds are he'll end up a Yankee. By blocking him for a year, they probably end up screwing themselves thereafter.
What I meant was - find out Yanks are no. 2 - offer big contract to D-Mat to make sure he's not a Yank.
Find out Yanks are not no.2 - make weird, certain to be rejected offer. Selig awards to no. 2 non-Yank team. Boston is free of any obligations.
It's the only way I can make sense of this.
We're moving into A-Rod salary territory now.
All told, if he gets 3/30, is any pitcher worth $80 million over 3 years? Clemens hasn't even gotten that kind of money.
I suspect that Boras would accept 3/30 with an unconditional release at the end of the contract. IOW, go directly to free agency again after the 2009 season; no arb years. I doubt the Red Sox would accept that, however, since it would mean that Matsuzaka was costing them a cool $27M per. This could be a very interesting 30 days, with the player and agent demanding a shorter contract for less money and the club insisting that they take more money for more years.
Good point. How they compete with the Yankees having to scrimp like that?
I agree that Zito is better than his FIP/xFIP numbers due to his high IF/FB% but I think the best guess it that his true quality has been somewhere between his DIPS and ERA numbers and that he's not a good bet for an expensive long-term contract. I'd rather the Mets stay away.
I'm done here. Got to go teach my son how to throw a frickin' gyro-ball.
Danny, you need to cut a good chunk off his FIP because of the lefty issue. This is something that DIPS 2.0 did, but that FIP does not.
A little help here. When I punch the numbers into my fancy-schmancy DIPS2 spreadsheet, a lefty with peripheral set Z will have an dERA about .05 higher than a RHP with the same peripheral set Z.
It's going through adjustments to expected BABIP. I assume it's subtracting for knuckleballers because they outperform DIPS, which would mean adding for LHP because they underperfrom DIPS. I don't have a nifty spreadsheet, though.
Philly, thanks for the list.
What about taking a flyer on Eric Gagne? Is he rotting PEDpwn3d corpse?
I heard it from you!
I would eat my hat if the Red Sox traded the rights to Matsuzaka after spending $51.1M on him.
It's pretty clear that the Red Sox are doing this because they think there is a ton of money that can be tapped in the Japanese market through this. The estimates I've heard say $6-10M per year above what is shared within MLB. Now I have no idea how reliable those estimates are - but the key point is that the Red Sox wouldn't do this without seeing a large amount of money to be made via this mechanism. No trade could reasonably compensate the Red Sox for this amount of money.
Seriously, try and come up with a trade that makes sense?
My guess is a week ago, you would have eaten your hat over the idea of the Red Sox spending $51.1 million for his rights. I don't mean I think a trade is likely- more like nothing would surprise me.
Your guess is mistaken.
I didn't expect this, but I can't say I'm shocked by it either. As I said, we have very little idea how much Japanese marketing is worth - making most bid sizes plausible.
I did expect the winning bid to be much larger than the 2nd place bid - that's how blind auctions turn out pretty frequently, and it's likely why Seibu did it this way.
I find Raskolnikov's Abramovich explanation more satisfying that this.
Fair enough. Perhaps I was thinking of a different, tastier hat.
Where did you see these? Where did they say the money was coming from? All the explanations I've heard so far sound like Kramer trying to explain how the Post Office "writes off" the cost of Jerry's broken stereo.
I find Raskolnikov's Abramovich explanation more satisfying that this.
Wow. Between Athletic Supporter's support of my Bill Hall trade proposal, and now greenback's support of my Henry-Abramovich theory (Henry waking up one morning and realizing that he's f****** rich), I might be gaining some credibility here in Primer. Now someone just has to agree with me that Fernando Martinez will be better than Reyes or Wright. Anyone?
Anyway, on to something more relevant to the Mets. Perhaps this implies that Theo is confident that he can dump Manny off on someone. As much as I fear it, this implies that Manny for Milledge and Heilman isn't that far off. (The optimist in me is praying that Theo will just sign Drew and trade Manny for Heilman straight-up).
Hey, I'm full of these spaced-out ideas. Stop encouraging me.
The Red Sox have a bunch of dough to play with without dealing Manny. I don't think this necessarily means they'll deal him.
The figure comes from a SoSH poster who said he works in the sports sponsorship industry. As for where the money would be coming from, well...
The Yankees have Japanese ads in Yankee stadium for instance. The Red Sox certainly do that(they sell out all their ad space already, but it lets them boost the price they charge for all ads by increasing the demand for ad space). Any increase in merchandise sales within 200 miles of Boston go to the Red Sox. Any Japanese people visiting Fenway because of Matsuzaka increase demand, and thus increase ticket prices. The actual money from showing the games is split among MLB teams, but other things like featurettes are not. If they do a show following Matsuzaka around Boston for instance, then NESN can sell that in Japan for advertising money. Running tours to Boston from Japan - they sell tickets and get a percentage of airline fare.
And that's just off the top of my head. If there's one thing the Red Sox are good at, it's making money in unlikely places. I don't know how much these things are worth, but the opportunities are significant.
That they could amount to $6-$10M per year is pretty reasonable. It could also amount to less than league minimum salary. I have no idea - just that the high end figures are plausible to me.
Someone get me that pail! You know, the one with the freezing cold water? Thanks. I've got a Primate who needs a dose poured all over him.
You're talking a newly-crowned Silver Slugger SS, with names like Joe Cronin and Lou Boudreau on his comp list. You're talking a 23-year old with back-to-back HOF-caliber seasons for a third-baseman, with names like Dick Allen, Scott Rolen, and Duke Snider on his comp list.
Talk to me about F-Mart maybe being better than either of them when he does something at AA, OK?
I've thought of that angle as well, but it still doesn't compute. Boston does not have a large Japanese population. NYC has a significant Japanese expatriate population. Furthermore, as a commercial center, there's a lot of traffic between Japan and NYC, as well as the tourist population. No doubt, that Matsui enhances the Yankees image within those interests.
Boston won't have that impact. Japanese tourists rarely come to visit Boston. There is no expatriate population. The impact won't be as strong as that for New York.
Is there an explanation yet for why Tabata profiles as a better prospect according to a lot of folks than Fernando does? It seems like Fernando hit better, and they're both toolsy off the charts.
Is Tabata just more toolsy than Martinez? Park effects?
It basicly comes down to how much of the posting fee is allocatable to a marketing expense, and how much to a marginal win expense, pardon the terms I don't know what better ones we have... Beyond that we are all just wasting bandwidth when trying to analyze if these dollar amounts make sense.
Who says it needs to be as strong as it is for New York?
This is pretty clearly true, and the annoying part is we likely won't ever know if this makes sense or not. It's not like four years down the line, the Red Sox are gonna open the books and tell us.
The only we find out if this made sense or not is if Matsuzaka is a complete bust.
Looking at that comp list, makes me think two things. One, I'm probably going to have to eat a lot of crow come the All-star break next year unless he falls off a cliff. Two, what the hell happened to Wil Cordero?
I don't know about that first part. I went to college in the Boston area and there were always tons of Japanese tourists walking around campus.
I'm spent considerable time in both cities. Boston's Japanese tourist population is a fraction of that of NYC. Not enough world famous sites (photo ops) and not enough shopping - the two key attractions for Asian tourists.
Well, I'd pay money to know how the heck they came up with that $51 point freaking 1. Maybe they were counting on that revenue stream.
Those aren't tourists, they're MIT grad students.
I think Tabata is just more fun to say.
Now if someone can just tell me why Tom Jeter's wrists made it clear he was driving 120 MPH so his brother could get back for his third tour of duty in Afghanistan, I'd be happy.
Fernando Martinez will be better than all of the players you just listed.
Combined, apparently.
Rask is absolutely sure that Fernando Martinez is going to become his generation's Frank Robinson.
No, I think he's absolutely sure that he's going to be better than Frank Robinson. I would name more names, but I'm deadly terrified that Rasky will then just trump those, too.
At least now, no one can accuse me of being the Mets' fan most in the tank for one of our prospects. I was never this over the moon for David Wright.
OK, bad choice of words . . . .
In honor of Rask, we could call him The Natural or Roy Hobbs.
I also like the Prodigy.
I think Fernando is a special player. I'll keep quiet for now, and we'll revisit this in mid-season after he's been through A+ ball.
(I'm not certain that he'll be Frank Robinson, that's *top* of the pyramid, but I do think he'll be better than Cronin, Boudreau, Allen, Rolen, and maybe Snider.)
In honor of Rask, we could call him The Natural or Roy Hobbs.
I also like the Prodigy.
In a few years, we'll be calling him the Franchise.
Make those "minus"es plusses. If they can earn even $10M over 3 years in overseas revenues, it looks like a better deal than signing Zito.
Aren't the Red Sox under the luxury tax threshold even with an additional free agent or two? Maybe they don't intend to stay under the threshold.
Well, that was my thinking. If they intend to go right upto/beyond the threshold, this makes sense.
Well, more sense than it does at face value I mean. Whether it makes more sense than signing Zito or Schmidt or somebody depends on whether (a) they think Matsu is a better risk than one of those guys and (b) how much overseas revenue they can make.
True. However, it all has to be paid now, which means it has a net present value of $51.1 million, unlike dollars spread over several years.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main