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Tuesday, November 14, 2006

SI: Heyman: With Matsuzaka gone, Mets now focusing on Zito

That’s why I say Heyman nice shot
Nice shot man

1k5v3L Posted: November 14, 2006 at 01:05 PM | 160 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. Sam M. Posted: November 15, 2006 at 02:51 AM (#2238010)
Sam. This is nuts. Humber has never pitched in the big leagues, and didn't pitch much in the minors last year. I think Oliver and John will be fine, but there is no way both Pelfrey and Humber are in the rotation at the start of the year. Maybe in August.

Did I say they would be? I just said I'd rather do that than see Victor Zambrano back. But then, I'd rather see Craig Swan and Skip Lockwood in the rotation than Zambrano, and Lockwood wasn't even a starter (at least not when he was a Met).

In reality, I don't expect any of those things to happen. I hope Pelfrey is in the rotation, but if he is it'll be as the # 5 starter and Humber will be in the minors. Even more likely, I'm afraid, is that Pelfrey will start the year in New Orleans.
   102. greenback calls it soccer Posted: November 15, 2006 at 02:52 AM (#2238014)
That only leaves $49M for the Player Development Machine.

Correction, $48.9M for the Player Development Machine.
   103. Raskolnikov Posted: November 15, 2006 at 02:53 AM (#2238015)

IF that were true, then their plan will backfire. Because it certainly appears, from all the rumors, that the Yankees were NOT the # 2 bidders, and the best way to keep Matsuzaka away from them would have been to let him sign with the Mets. If they blow it, he'll be a FA next year, and odds are he'll end up a Yankee. By blocking him for a year, they probably end up screwing themselves thereafter.


What I meant was - find out Yanks are no. 2 - offer big contract to D-Mat to make sure he's not a Yank.

Find out Yanks are not no.2 - make weird, certain to be rejected offer. Selig awards to no. 2 non-Yank team. Boston is free of any obligations.

It's the only way I can make sense of this.

We're moving into A-Rod salary territory now.
   104. sasquatch83 Posted: November 15, 2006 at 02:53 AM (#2238017)
$51.1 million is crazy. With the shorter deal that people are saying Boras is looking for (3-4 years) you're looking at an extra 12ish-17 million per year on top of any salary. I know it's not paid out that way, and Seibu is getting the $51 million, but still, you have to take it into account.

All told, if he gets 3/30, is any pitcher worth $80 million over 3 years? Clemens hasn't even gotten that kind of money.
   105. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: November 15, 2006 at 02:54 AM (#2238020)
it is very difficult to see how $51M to Seibu can make sense combined with a contract that Boras and Matsuzaka will accept

I suspect that Boras would accept 3/30 with an unconditional release at the end of the contract. IOW, go directly to free agency again after the 2009 season; no arb years. I doubt the Red Sox would accept that, however, since it would mean that Matsuzaka was costing them a cool $27M per. This could be a very interesting 30 days, with the player and agent demanding a shorter contract for less money and the club insisting that they take more money for more years.
   106. rr Posted: November 15, 2006 at 02:54 AM (#2238021)
Correction, $48.9M for the Player Development Machine.

Good point. How they compete with the Yankees having to scrimp like that?
   107. J. Cross Posted: November 15, 2006 at 02:56 AM (#2238026)
Yeah, both of these deals (Valentin and El Duque) would look fine as one year deals but look questionable as 2 yr. deals. Moving Valentin to LF would be truly idiotic.

I agree that Zito is better than his FIP/xFIP numbers due to his high IF/FB% but I think the best guess it that his true quality has been somewhere between his DIPS and ERA numbers and that he's not a good bet for an expensive long-term contract. I'd rather the Mets stay away.
   108. Dr. Vaux Posted: November 15, 2006 at 02:59 AM (#2238029)
They could sign him for $25 million a year and trade him straight-up for A-Rod!
   109. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: November 15, 2006 at 03:04 AM (#2238034)
OK, I've given it thirty seconds worth of thought. The Sox figure that Matsuzaka is better than Zito, and Zito's going to get something insane like 6/105. So they decide that they'll spend this much on matsuzaka instead; with 51 going to Seibu to be sure they win the rights, that leaves 54 for the contract. I imagine they'll agree on the dolars almost immediately. The sticking point will be Boston wanting it to be six year contract and Boras wanting it to be three.

I'm done here. Got to go teach my son how to throw a frickin' gyro-ball.
   110. greenback calls it soccer Posted: November 15, 2006 at 03:04 AM (#2238035)
Dialing past the latest outbreak of D-Mat Disease...

Danny, you need to cut a good chunk off his FIP because of the lefty issue. This is something that DIPS 2.0 did, but that FIP does not.

A little help here. When I punch the numbers into my fancy-schmancy DIPS2 spreadsheet, a lefty with peripheral set Z will have an dERA about .05 higher than a RHP with the same peripheral set Z.
   111. Rob Base Posted: November 15, 2006 at 03:04 AM (#2238036)
This offseason is already very weird.
   112. HowardMegdal Posted: November 15, 2006 at 03:06 AM (#2238039)
It still wouldn't shock me if the Red Sox trade the rights to Matsuzaka. Thanks for the compliment, TVErik. And Valentin will not be the every day left fielder unless they need him to move because the Mets traded for Bill Hall, and he'll still be a platoon player. But I expect Jose to be the left handed side of a 2B platoon.
   113. Rob Base Posted: November 15, 2006 at 03:08 AM (#2238042)
Where did we get the idea that Bill Hall was on the block?
   114. Darren Posted: November 15, 2006 at 03:08 AM (#2238043)
I don't think they're allowed to trade his rights.
   115. Randomly Fluctuating Defensive Metric Posted: November 15, 2006 at 03:13 AM (#2238051)
51.1 million? Shieeeeeettttttt....
   116. Rob Base Posted: November 15, 2006 at 03:14 AM (#2238052)
Omar must have been absolutely positive he has the winning bit at $38 million.
   117. Danny Posted: November 15, 2006 at 03:15 AM (#2238053)
Yeah, I had the same question, Greenback. From the DIPS 2.0 Formula:
Take the number .304396 and subtract .01083 if the pitcher is strictly a Knuckleball pitcher. If not keep the .304396 number.
Take the result from the last step and add .002321 if the pitcher is left handed, if not keep the number from the above step.

It's going through adjustments to expected BABIP. I assume it's subtracting for knuckleballers because they outperform DIPS, which would mean adding for LHP because they underperfrom DIPS. I don't have a nifty spreadsheet, though.

Philly, thanks for the list.
   118. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: November 15, 2006 at 03:15 AM (#2238054)
Shouldn't there be a thread devoted to Matsuzaka and the Seibu offer?
   119. Rob Base Posted: November 15, 2006 at 03:16 AM (#2238055)
"had", that should say
   120. Rob Base Posted: November 15, 2006 at 03:18 AM (#2238057)
Yeah, get out of our thread.

What about taking a flyer on Eric Gagne? Is he rotting PEDpwn3d corpse?
   121. HowardMegdal Posted: November 15, 2006 at 03:21 AM (#2238062)
"Where did we get the idea that Bill Hall was on the block?"

I heard it from you!
   122. Darren Posted: November 15, 2006 at 03:22 AM (#2238064)
Matsuzaka's right there in the headline, unlike all these crappy Mets players you guys are talking about! :)
   123. Rob Base Posted: November 15, 2006 at 03:23 AM (#2238065)
Liar!
   124. bibigon Posted: November 15, 2006 at 03:34 AM (#2238072)
It still wouldn't shock me if the Red Sox trade the rights to Matsuzaka.


I would eat my hat if the Red Sox traded the rights to Matsuzaka after spending $51.1M on him.

It's pretty clear that the Red Sox are doing this because they think there is a ton of money that can be tapped in the Japanese market through this. The estimates I've heard say $6-10M per year above what is shared within MLB. Now I have no idea how reliable those estimates are - but the key point is that the Red Sox wouldn't do this without seeing a large amount of money to be made via this mechanism. No trade could reasonably compensate the Red Sox for this amount of money.

Seriously, try and come up with a trade that makes sense?
   125. HowardMegdal Posted: November 15, 2006 at 03:38 AM (#2238078)
"I would eat my hat if the Red Sox traded the rights to Matsuzaka after spending $51.1M on him."

My guess is a week ago, you would have eaten your hat over the idea of the Red Sox spending $51.1 million for his rights. I don't mean I think a trade is likely- more like nothing would surprise me.
   126. bibigon Posted: November 15, 2006 at 03:41 AM (#2238082)
My guess is a week ago, you would have eaten your hat over the idea of the Red Sox spending $51.1 million for his rights.


Your guess is mistaken.

I didn't expect this, but I can't say I'm shocked by it either. As I said, we have very little idea how much Japanese marketing is worth - making most bid sizes plausible.

I did expect the winning bid to be much larger than the 2nd place bid - that's how blind auctions turn out pretty frequently, and it's likely why Seibu did it this way.
   127. greenback calls it soccer Posted: November 15, 2006 at 03:43 AM (#2238083)
It's pretty clear that the Red Sox are doing this because they think there is a ton of money that can be tapped in the Japanese market through this.

I find Raskolnikov's Abramovich explanation more satisfying that this.
   128. Darren Posted: November 15, 2006 at 03:45 AM (#2238084)
I like Rask's theory as well, but I don't see how the Red Sox will find out who's #2. The Yankees have kept their bid quiet so far, so they'll probably continue to do so.
   129. HowardMegdal Posted: November 15, 2006 at 03:48 AM (#2238089)
"Your guess is mistaken."

Fair enough. Perhaps I was thinking of a different, tastier hat.
   130. Darren Posted: November 15, 2006 at 03:49 AM (#2238093)
It's pretty clear that the Red Sox are doing this because they think there is a ton of money that can be tapped in the Japanese market through this. The estimates I've heard say $6-10M per year above what is shared within MLB

Where did you see these? Where did they say the money was coming from? All the explanations I've heard so far sound like Kramer trying to explain how the Post Office "writes off" the cost of Jerry's broken stereo.
   131. Raskolnikov Posted: November 15, 2006 at 03:50 AM (#2238095)

I find Raskolnikov's Abramovich explanation more satisfying that this.


Wow. Between Athletic Supporter's support of my Bill Hall trade proposal, and now greenback's support of my Henry-Abramovich theory (Henry waking up one morning and realizing that he's f****** rich), I might be gaining some credibility here in Primer. Now someone just has to agree with me that Fernando Martinez will be better than Reyes or Wright. Anyone?


Anyway, on to something more relevant to the Mets. Perhaps this implies that Theo is confident that he can dump Manny off on someone. As much as I fear it, this implies that Manny for Milledge and Heilman isn't that far off. (The optimist in me is praying that Theo will just sign Drew and trade Manny for Heilman straight-up).

Hey, I'm full of these spaced-out ideas. Stop encouraging me.
   132. Darren Posted: November 15, 2006 at 03:58 AM (#2238111)
Rask,

The Red Sox have a bunch of dough to play with without dealing Manny. I don't think this necessarily means they'll deal him.
   133. bibigon Posted: November 15, 2006 at 03:59 AM (#2238116)

Where did you see these? Where did they say the money was coming from? All the explanations I've heard so far sound like Kramer trying to explain how the Post Office "writes off" the cost of Jerry's broken stereo.


The figure comes from a SoSH poster who said he works in the sports sponsorship industry. As for where the money would be coming from, well...

The Yankees have Japanese ads in Yankee stadium for instance. The Red Sox certainly do that(they sell out all their ad space already, but it lets them boost the price they charge for all ads by increasing the demand for ad space). Any increase in merchandise sales within 200 miles of Boston go to the Red Sox. Any Japanese people visiting Fenway because of Matsuzaka increase demand, and thus increase ticket prices. The actual money from showing the games is split among MLB teams, but other things like featurettes are not. If they do a show following Matsuzaka around Boston for instance, then NESN can sell that in Japan for advertising money. Running tours to Boston from Japan - they sell tickets and get a percentage of airline fare.

And that's just off the top of my head. If there's one thing the Red Sox are good at, it's making money in unlikely places. I don't know how much these things are worth, but the opportunities are significant.

That they could amount to $6-$10M per year is pretty reasonable. It could also amount to less than league minimum salary. I have no idea - just that the high end figures are plausible to me.
   134. Sam M. Posted: November 15, 2006 at 04:07 AM (#2238125)
Now someone just has to agree with me that Fernando Martinez will be better than Reyes or Wright. Anyone?

Someone get me that pail! You know, the one with the freezing cold water? Thanks. I've got a Primate who needs a dose poured all over him.

You're talking a newly-crowned Silver Slugger SS, with names like Joe Cronin and Lou Boudreau on his comp list. You're talking a 23-year old with back-to-back HOF-caliber seasons for a third-baseman, with names like Dick Allen, Scott Rolen, and Duke Snider on his comp list.

Talk to me about F-Mart maybe being better than either of them when he does something at AA, OK?
   135. Raskolnikov Posted: November 15, 2006 at 04:10 AM (#2238126)
The Yankees have Japanese ads in Yankee stadium for instance. The Red Sox certainly do that(they sell out all their ad space already, but it lets them boost the price they charge for all ads by increasing the demand for ad space). Any increase in merchandise sales within 200 miles of Boston go to the Red Sox. Any Japanese people visiting Fenway because of Matsuzaka increase demand, and thus increase ticket prices. The actual money from showing the games is split among MLB teams, but other things like featurettes are not. If they do a show following Matsuzaka around Boston for instance, then NESN can sell that in Japan for advertising money. Running tours to Boston from Japan - they sell tickets and get a percentage of airline fare.


I've thought of that angle as well, but it still doesn't compute. Boston does not have a large Japanese population. NYC has a significant Japanese expatriate population. Furthermore, as a commercial center, there's a lot of traffic between Japan and NYC, as well as the tourist population. No doubt, that Matsui enhances the Yankees image within those interests.

Boston won't have that impact. Japanese tourists rarely come to visit Boston. There is no expatriate population. The impact won't be as strong as that for New York.
   136. bibigon Posted: November 15, 2006 at 04:11 AM (#2238130)
Now someone just has to agree with me that Fernando Martinez will be better than Reyes or Wright. Anyone?


Is there an explanation yet for why Tabata profiles as a better prospect according to a lot of folks than Fernando does? It seems like Fernando hit better, and they're both toolsy off the charts.

Is Tabata just more toolsy than Martinez? Park effects?
   137. Mister High Standards Posted: November 15, 2006 at 04:14 AM (#2238132)
Too many unknowns here for us "basement" analysts to have a clue if it makes sense or not.

It basicly comes down to how much of the posting fee is allocatable to a marketing expense, and how much to a marginal win expense, pardon the terms I don't know what better ones we have... Beyond that we are all just wasting bandwidth when trying to analyze if these dollar amounts make sense.
   138. bibigon Posted: November 15, 2006 at 04:14 AM (#2238133)
Boston won't have that impact. Japanese tourists rarely come to visit Boston. There is no expatriate population. The impact won't be as strong as that for New York.


Who says it needs to be as strong as it is for New York?
   139. bibigon Posted: November 15, 2006 at 04:17 AM (#2238136)
Too many unknowns here for us "basement" analysts to have a clue if it makes sense or not.


This is pretty clearly true, and the annoying part is we likely won't ever know if this makes sense or not. It's not like four years down the line, the Red Sox are gonna open the books and tell us.

The only we find out if this made sense or not is if Matsuzaka is a complete bust.
   140. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 15, 2006 at 04:21 AM (#2238140)
"You're talking a newly-crowned Silver Slugger SS, with names like Joe Cronin and Lou Boudreau on his comp list."

Looking at that comp list, makes me think two things. One, I'm probably going to have to eat a lot of crow come the All-star break next year unless he falls off a cliff. Two, what the hell happened to Wil Cordero?
   141. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: November 15, 2006 at 04:25 AM (#2238147)
They can't trade the rights. The agreement explicitly states that the rights are not transferrable. If they could, however, I imagine that Theo would be asking for $51.1M worth of player development.
   142. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: November 15, 2006 at 04:31 AM (#2238153)
Boston won't have that impact. Japanese tourists rarely come to visit Boston. There is no expatriate population. The impact won't be as strong as that for New York.

I don't know about that first part. I went to college in the Boston area and there were always tons of Japanese tourists walking around campus.
   143. Raskolnikov Posted: November 15, 2006 at 04:34 AM (#2238159)
I don't know about that first part. I went to college in the Boston area and there were always tons of Japanese tourists walking around campus.

I'm spent considerable time in both cities. Boston's Japanese tourist population is a fraction of that of NYC. Not enough world famous sites (photo ops) and not enough shopping - the two key attractions for Asian tourists.
   144. greenback calls it soccer Posted: November 15, 2006 at 04:35 AM (#2238160)
This is pretty clearly true, and the annoying part is we likely won't ever know if this makes sense or not. It's not like four years down the line, the Red Sox are gonna open the books and tell us.

Well, I'd pay money to know how the heck they came up with that $51 point freaking 1. Maybe they were counting on that revenue stream.
   145. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: November 15, 2006 at 04:41 AM (#2238172)
I went to college in the Boston area and there were always tons of Japanese tourists walking around campus.

Those aren't tourists, they're MIT grad students.
   146. HowardMegdal Posted: November 15, 2006 at 04:55 AM (#2238192)
"Is Tabata just more toolsy than Martinez?"

I think Tabata is just more fun to say.

Now if someone can just tell me why Tom Jeter's wrists made it clear he was driving 120 MPH so his brother could get back for his third tour of duty in Afghanistan, I'd be happy.
   147. Raskolnikov Posted: November 15, 2006 at 05:13 AM (#2238219)
You're talking a newly-crowned Silver Slugger SS, with names like Joe Cronin and Lou Boudreau on his comp list. You're talking a 23-year old with back-to-back HOF-caliber seasons for a third-baseman, with names like Dick Allen, Scott Rolen, and Duke Snider on his comp list.

Fernando Martinez will be better than all of the players you just listed.
   148. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: November 15, 2006 at 05:18 AM (#2238227)
Basically, Rask is absolutely sure that Fernando Martinez is going to become his generation's Frank Robinson.
   149. Sam M. Posted: November 15, 2006 at 05:34 AM (#2238252)
Fernando Martinez will be better than all of the players you just listed.

Combined, apparently.

Rask is absolutely sure that Fernando Martinez is going to become his generation's Frank Robinson.

No, I think he's absolutely sure that he's going to be better than Frank Robinson. I would name more names, but I'm deadly terrified that Rasky will then just trump those, too.

At least now, no one can accuse me of being the Mets' fan most in the tank for one of our prospects. I was never this over the moon for David Wright.

OK, bad choice of words . . . .
   150. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: November 15, 2006 at 05:42 AM (#2238260)
We need a nickname for Fernando. I like Fernando mania. I don't mind Fernandomania but we can do better I think.

In honor of Rask, we could call him The Natural or Roy Hobbs.

I also like the Prodigy.
   151. Raskolnikov Posted: November 15, 2006 at 05:42 AM (#2238262)
Basically, Rask is absolutely sure that Fernando Martinez is going to become his generation's Frank Robinson. No, I think he's absolutely sure that he's going to be better than Frank Robinson. I would name more names, but I'm deadly terrified that Rasky will then just trump those, too.

I think Fernando is a special player. I'll keep quiet for now, and we'll revisit this in mid-season after he's been through A+ ball.

(I'm not certain that he'll be Frank Robinson, that's *top* of the pyramid, but I do think he'll be better than Cronin, Boudreau, Allen, Rolen, and maybe Snider.)
   152. Raskolnikov Posted: November 15, 2006 at 05:44 AM (#2238264)
We need a nickname for Fernando. I like Fernando mania. I don't mind Fernandomania but we can do better I think.

In honor of Rask, we could call him The Natural or Roy Hobbs.

I also like the Prodigy.


In a few years, we'll be calling him the Franchise.
   153. Harold can be a fun sponge Posted: November 15, 2006 at 06:46 AM (#2238311)
Well, the big issue that has received relatively little attention is the luxury tax implication. The $51M doesn't count against the tax. So let's say the Sox actually agree to $30M/3yrs. What's the marginal tax rate? 40%? So that's a total of $51M + $30M*1.4 = $93M for 3 years. If they sign Zito for $80M/5yrs, with it all counting against the tax, that's really $112M after tax. So the difference is $19M over the last two years, minus whatever revenues they can get overseas, minus whatever goodwill they can build up to re-sign him, etc. It almost kinda makes sense.
   154. Harold can be a fun sponge Posted: November 15, 2006 at 06:48 AM (#2238312)
So the difference is $19M over the last two years, minus whatever revenues they can get overseas, minus whatever goodwill they can build up to re-sign him, etc.

Make those "minus"es plusses. If they can earn even $10M over 3 years in overseas revenues, it looks like a better deal than signing Zito.
   155. Harold can be a fun sponge Posted: November 15, 2006 at 06:54 AM (#2238319)
The next CBA negotiation is a long time away, but I wonder if it were just a year or two away, if some teams would be agitating to have posting fees counted against the luxury tax. I would guess the union wouldn't put up a fight on that one.
   156. J. Cross Posted: November 15, 2006 at 06:55 AM (#2238320)
Well, the big issue that has received relatively little attention is the luxury tax implication.

Aren't the Red Sox under the luxury tax threshold even with an additional free agent or two? Maybe they don't intend to stay under the threshold.
   157. Harold can be a fun sponge Posted: November 15, 2006 at 06:57 AM (#2238327)
Aren't the Red Sox under the luxury tax threshold even with an additional free agent or two? Maybe they don't intend to stay under the threshold.

Well, that was my thinking. If they intend to go right upto/beyond the threshold, this makes sense.
   158. Harold can be a fun sponge Posted: November 15, 2006 at 06:59 AM (#2238328)
Well, that was my thinking. If they intend to go right upto/beyond the threshold, this makes sense.

Well, more sense than it does at face value I mean. Whether it makes more sense than signing Zito or Schmidt or somebody depends on whether (a) they think Matsu is a better risk than one of those guys and (b) how much overseas revenue they can make.
   159. J. Michael Neal Posted: November 15, 2006 at 07:07 AM (#2238335)
The $51M doesn't count against the tax.

True. However, it all has to be paid now, which means it has a net present value of $51.1 million, unlike dollars spread over several years.
   160. shoewizard Posted: December 19, 2012 at 03:32 AM (#4328297)
Bumping this thread...because I can. Page 1 is a hoot.
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