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Friday, June 19, 2009

S.I. : Marchman: A tale of two brothers: What’s the difference between the Uptons?

I see Hal Trosky mentioned, which reminds of the two ML broadcasters (don’t ask me who they were as I was repairing my legless Billholden end table) that came across his name yesterday…and didn’t know who he was.

The varying approaches that Tampa Bay and Arizona took with their wildly talented players show in some wildly varying results. More than his inconsistent hitting lines, B.J.‘s struggles are reflected in an inconsistent approach. In 2006, for instance, he swung at 14 percent of pitches outside the strike zone; the next year, it was 19 percent, an increase of more than 35 percent. In his three seasons Justin has ranged from 24 percent to 26 percent. B.J.‘s isolated power—slugging average minus batting average, a measure of pure extra-base hitting—dropped more than 100 points from his first to his second year, increased 150 points in his third year, and has dropped steadily since; Justin’s has increased each year.

Again, this is surely partly a reflection of talent, that slight and indiscernible difference in genetics that some genius some day may be able to isolate under an electron microscope. Blind as we may be to the specific mechanics, there is no mystery here. But if, injuries and early promotion aside, B.J.‘s fundamental problem has been an inability to fix on one aspect of his game and master it, it’s hard not to tie that to the inconsistent way in which he was treated in his formative days as a major leaguer, when no one even seemed quite able to decide what position he should play, let alone what style he should adopt at the plate.

Repoz Posted: June 19, 2009 at 11:07 AM | 13 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: arizona, projections, rays, sabermetrics

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   1. John DiFool2 Posted: June 19, 2009 at 02:17 PM (#3224717)
One thing I just noticed-they were born 4 calendar days apart (August 21/25, albeit with a 3 year gap).

I wonder what Mr. and Mrs. Upton do every year around Thanksgiving...
   2. gef the talking mongoose Posted: June 19, 2009 at 02:23 PM (#3224724)
I wonder what Mr. and Mrs. Upton do every year around Thanksgiving...


If you don't know, I certainly won't tell you.
   3. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: June 19, 2009 at 02:23 PM (#3224725)
I wonder what Mr. and Mrs. Upton do every year around Thanksgiving...

Well, turkey basters are handy then...
   4. MSalfino Posted: June 19, 2009 at 02:27 PM (#3224730)
Or all these things are completely random.
   5. MSalfino Posted: June 19, 2009 at 02:30 PM (#3224736)
Plus, I don't get it. B.J. is struggling because he swings at less bad pitches than Justin because Justin swings a more bad pitches more consistently? What am I missing?
   6. Steve Treder Posted: June 19, 2009 at 03:47 PM (#3224830)
Plus, I don't get it. B.J. is struggling because he swings at less bad pitches than Justin because Justin swings a more bad pitches more consistently? What am I missing?

Yeah, I got stumped right there too.
   7. Jeff K. Posted: June 19, 2009 at 04:08 PM (#3224853)
Well, for one you don't use your hands at all and for another...wait, what are we talking about exactly, here?
   8. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: June 19, 2009 at 04:21 PM (#3224868)
In 2014 Upton will be a free agent at 26
You may very well be right but still... bite me
   9. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: June 19, 2009 at 04:23 PM (#3224872)
His brother, by contrast, has always played one position, and once he was brought up to the majors he was up for good, through better play and worse.
Well, this is wrong. Justin was a centerfielder in the minors until about 2 weeks before his major league call up, when the Dbacks moved him to RF in Mobile. And his defense in RF his first season was a painful experience at times...
   10. phredbird Posted: June 19, 2009 at 04:32 PM (#3224881)
speaking of brothers, the weavers will be pitching against each other in L.A. this weekend, lord willing and the creek don't rise.
   11. MSalfino Posted: June 19, 2009 at 06:02 PM (#3225023)
Well I meant to say this:

Plus, I don't get it. B.J. is struggling because he swings at less bad pitches than Justin OR because Justin swings AT more bad pitches more consistently? What am I missing?

I need a 24-hour copy desk.
   12. ValueArb Posted: June 19, 2009 at 06:30 PM (#3225089)
And Justin hasn't slugged .560 yet, we aren't half into the season. I'm pretty sure he's going to slug over .500, maybe over .560, but he's been prone to big slumps too. I hope he is the next sure fire HOF'er, and I'm pretty sure he's going to be very, very, good either way. But I'm not going to let that over-rule my nittiness about anointing guys for a great season before the season is done.
   13. Walt Davis Posted: June 19, 2009 at 09:45 PM (#3225361)
J Upton 2009 Ks too much to maintain this level of production -- he's hitting 433/795 on contact. For his career, he sits at 380/690 which is already awfully darn good but only good for a 111 OPS+. I assume he'll slug over 700 on-contact through his prime but it's unlikely he'll top that 380 BA. So at his peak, I'll guesstimate a 125ish OPS+ -- think Ryan Braun 2008 with a lower BA. So a very nice player but not a superstar hitter (for RF) -- to be substantially better, he's gonna have to cut the K-rate.

Still only 21 of course so, sure, we could be looking at the next AROD.

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