Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Friday, September 11, 2009

S.I.: Marchman: All hail the Yankees’ new hit king; so what will Jeter do for an encore?

“Last night I dreamed
I died in my sleep
Only to awake
Laying in a coffin”

This brings us to our third question, which to my mind may be the least interesting in baseball. Jeter is never going to play for any team other than the Yankees. When the time comes they’ll sign him to a new contract for more money than his on-field contributions will be worth, and no one will think twice about it. I’d guess that Jeter will sign for an annual salary near the $22.5 million AAV that Manny Ramirez is making, and that he’ll get an extra year or two atop the two that Ramirez got from the Dodgers. Considering that the Yankees spent around $40 million on Kyle Farnsworth, Jason Giambi and Carl Pavano last year, it’s hard to see how the dollars matter much. They can afford it, and even if Jeter instantly turns into Skeeter Newsome upon signing a new deal it won’t keep the Yankees from doing other things to improve the team. It’s all a non-issue.

What is an issue, more than the hits record he isn’t going to break or the controversies over his inevitable move off of shortstop and his contract that aren’t going to materialize, is Jeter’s legacy. For such a revered winner, Jeter has presided over a lot of failure as captain, from the worst collapse in playoff history to a nearly decade-long run during which absurd payrolls that routinely neared or exceeded $200 million bought not one world championship.

All of this is less his fault than anyone’s, but there are probably college freshmen with no clear memories of the last time Jeter won a ring. It would be nice to think he doesn’t have anything left to prove. But is it really true?

Repoz Posted: September 11, 2009 at 12:12 PM | 38 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: history, projections, sabermetrics, yankees, zips

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 11, 2009 at 12:24 PM (#3319488)
As a huge Yankee fan, I firmly oppose paying Jeter anything close to a $22.5M AAV on a 3-4 year deal. I'd be happy to keep him at something somewaht above market; say 2 years, $15M per. But $20M+ is just crazy. He wasn't worth his last contract, to go higher is stupidity.

I just don't see the tragedy if he finishes his career elsewhere. Ruth and Berra did, and no one thinks they are any less Yankees for it.
   2. Rants Mulliniks (formerly Cold Prosimian) Posted: September 11, 2009 at 12:39 PM (#3319495)
Money is king more now than ever, so I don't see why its a foregone conclusion that he won't play anywhere else. Although I suppose the only way it could happen is if some dumb GM offers Jetes an above-market contract AND lets him continue to play SS when he should be PH. He might do something like that if the hit record is within reach.
   3. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: September 11, 2009 at 12:43 PM (#3319497)
When the time comes they’ll sign him to a new contract for more money than his on-field contributions will be worth, and no one will think twice about it. I’d guess that Jeter will sign for an annual salary near the $22.5 million AAV that Manny Ramirez is making, and that he’ll get an extra year or two atop the two that Ramirez got from the Dodgers. Considering that the Yankees spent around $40 million on Kyle Farnsworth, Jason Giambi and Carl Pavano last year, it’s hard to see how the dollars matter much


This is bunk.

Presently, the Yankees are not throwing money out the window - they didn't really sign any FAs (othern than their own) in 2007-2008, and they only went after prime-time FAs in 2008-2009.

Mentioning Giambi (signed WAY back in 2001-2002), Pavano (signed in 2004-2005) and Farns (signed in 2005-2006) is simply clouding the issue.


To start, I suspect the Yankees will DECREASE their payroll be anywhere from $15 to $20MM this year (by letting Matsui and Nady go, as well as re-signing Damon and Wang to cheaper contracts. The Yanks may also let Molina go, though they will probably end up paying a little more than they are now to Pettitte). I really don't see them going all in on any big-time FAs this year.

Contrary to what I expected during the trading season, the Yankees were not the recipients in an Abreu-like trade/salary dump, which tells me that either other teams were not in as dire straits financially as has been lead to believe or that the Yankees are unwilling (unable?) to take on more salary.

Also, as pointed out on a number of BTF threads, who, exactly is going to be offering Jeter $22.5MM AAV which will force the Yankees to do a Hicks and sign him for much more than he's worth?

I didn't read the full article, but the above quote was just not good.
   4. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 11, 2009 at 01:03 PM (#3319503)
Jeter's current contract is $189M over 10 years. It was backloaded so he earns $20M this year and $21M in 2010. My guess is that an extension will be closer to the average annual value of that contract than the 2010 salary, but does it really matter? The Yanks have the money and won't be precluded from making other moves if they sweeten the deal a bit. TV ratings alone make Jeter worth more than what his on-field performance would justify. You can't put a price on aura and mystique but a deal will get done.
   5. Craig Calcaterra Posted: September 11, 2009 at 01:08 PM (#3319506)
Yesterday I was reamed by readers after suggesting that Jeter's breaking of Gehrig's team hits record was being overhyped. I don't know the commenter demographics over at SI, but if they're anything like the NBC people, Marchman had better get a bodyguard for asking whether Jeter has anything left to prove.

Of course, Tim might be like me and absolutely love it when the Yankee fanboys go crazy, so it's all good.
   6. The Good Face Posted: September 11, 2009 at 01:09 PM (#3319507)
As a huge Yankee fan, I firmly oppose paying Jeter anything close to a $22.5M AAV on a 3-4 year deal. I'd be happy to keep him at something somewaht above market; say 2 years, $15M per. But $20M+ is just crazy. He wasn't worth his last contract, to go higher is stupidity.


Unless Jeter puts up another MVP type season or craters completely in 2010, I'm guessing they'll settle around 3 years/$45-50M.
   7. Bob Tufts Posted: September 11, 2009 at 01:14 PM (#3319509)
Until Jeter gets a disease or candy bar named after him, he hasn't truly joined the Yankee pantheon of immortals.
   8. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: September 11, 2009 at 01:26 PM (#3319512)
Contrary to what I expected during the trading season, the Yankees were not the recipients in an Abreu-like trade/salary dump, which tells me that either other teams were not in as dire straits financially as has been lead to believe or that the Yankees are unwilling (unable?) to take on more salary.
Perhaps the Yankees just weren't interested in picking those guys up. I'm sure they could have had Vernon Wells or Rios if they really wanted, but that doesn't really match their needs. They have added (minor) payroll, Hinske, Hairston etc. to fill spots, I think the reason has less to do with the financial situation of the Yankees or other teams as the talent situation of the Yankees.
   9. Big Train Posted: September 11, 2009 at 01:38 PM (#3319518)
For an encore, I would like him to play Freebird.
   10. Hack Wilson Posted: September 11, 2009 at 01:43 PM (#3319524)
Until Jeter gets a disease or candy bar named after him,


He has both, sort of:
Derek's Cotton Candy

Jeteritis: a disease in which people flail helplessly at objects on the ground.
   11. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: September 11, 2009 at 01:48 PM (#3319526)
RB,

Abreu (whom I mentioned) was a much better player than Wells or Rios currently are when he was traded (salary dumped) from the Phils to the Yankees in 2006. Yes, potential trading partners probably would have been willing to trade junk to the Yankees for salary relief.

The reason why I mentioned Abreu is because I was thinking of players of that level of talent who are salary dumped (in my scenario, to the Yankees).

Arguably, the Tigers did the same when they did the I-Rod for Farnsworth deal in 2008 (that didn't work out well for either team, but I-Rod was an OPS+ 98 hitter and a potential Class B FA when the trade versus Farnsworth, who had a decent looking ERA+ of 122 at the time of the trade, but was an odd man out with the Yankees).
   12. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: September 11, 2009 at 01:53 PM (#3319528)
The reason why I mentioned Abreu is because I was thinking of players of that level of talent who are salary dumped (in my scenario, to the Yankees).
I know what you meant, I'm just of the belief that the reason the Yankees didn't get anyone like that isn't because they didn't want to take on the salary, or because teams didn't want/need to dump the salary, but because they didn't have any hole worth spending the money on. In Abreu's case, he failed a giant hole in the team at the time. They didn't have this season, so they didn't add anyone.
   13. YR Denies Jesus Montero Posted: September 11, 2009 at 02:17 PM (#3319561)

Until Jeter gets a disease or candy bar named after him, he hasn't truly joined the Yankee pantheon of immortals.


If I close my eyes and think hard enough, I can still taste the sweet deliciousness of a Reggie Bar. Alas, I was too young to experience the true nectar and ambrosia of the age - a Reggie Bar washed down with a BillyBeer.
   14. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: September 11, 2009 at 02:28 PM (#3319579)
There's Jeter Flakes
   15. kubiwan Posted: September 11, 2009 at 02:52 PM (#3319605)
For such a revered winner, Jeter has presided over a lot of failure as captain, from the worst collapse in playoff history


It causes me no end of amusement that the worst playoff collapses/chokes in MLB (2004 ALCS) and NFL (AFC title game after the 2006 season) playoff history were both presided over by the men (Jeter and Brady) universally lauded as the "Ultimate Winners" in the respective sports.
   16. Smiling Joe Hesketh Posted: September 11, 2009 at 03:52 PM (#3319683)
It causes me no end of amusement that the worst playoff collapses/chokes in MLB (2004 ALCS) and NFL (AFC title game after the 2006 season) playoff history were both presided over by the men (Jeter and Brady) universally lauded as the "Ultimate Winners" in the respective sports.

It causes me no end of amusement that you got the NFL one dead wrong. By far the worst one was Houston blowing a 35-3 lead in Buffalo in 1993. The AFC title game you mention was only 21-3 at one point and 21-10 at the half, and was only the 4th largest playoff comeback in the NFL.
   17. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: September 11, 2009 at 03:57 PM (#3319690)
It causes me no end of amusement that the worst playoff collapses/chokes in MLB (2004 ALCS) and NFL (AFC title game after the 2006 season) playoff history were both presided over by the men (Jeter and Brady) universally lauded as the "Ultimate Winners" in the respective sports.


As the rare Red Sox/Colts fan, both of those were big favorites of mine as well. I don't really have anything against Brady, and it would be silly to fault him in any way for the loss, but it was nice to see Peyton end that stupid, "Can't win the big one" label that morons like the Sports Guy seemed to genuinely believe.
   18. RJ in TO Posted: September 11, 2009 at 04:03 PM (#3319693)
By far the worst one was Houston blowing a 35-3 lead in Buffalo in 1993.


No. That was the best one. The worst one was when the transplanted spirit of that Houston team got revenge with the Music City Miracle (which was a forward lateral, and the greatest miscarriage of justice in NFL history).
   19. Delorians Posted: September 11, 2009 at 04:20 PM (#3319700)
"By far the worst one was Houston blowing a 35-3 lead in Buffalo in 1993.

No. That was the best one. The worst one was when the transplanted spirit of that Houston team got revenge with the Music City Miracle (which was a forward lateral, and the greatest miscarriage of justice in NFL history)."

As a Houston fan who stopped rooting for the team after they moved, I got screwed both times. But I don't think it was a forward lateral.
   20. Bob Tufts Posted: September 11, 2009 at 04:36 PM (#3319712)
What's the UZR of a "Jeter Flake" in milk?

Did Famous Fixins stop making these in 2001 and cause a Yankee curse to begin?
   21. OCD SS Posted: September 11, 2009 at 05:00 PM (#3319734)
so what will Jeter do for an encore?


Come up with a cure for herpes?
   22. Smiling Joe Hesketh Posted: September 11, 2009 at 05:17 PM (#3319754)
No. That was the best one. The worst one was when the transplanted spirit of that Houston team got revenge with the Music City Miracle (which was a forward lateral, and the greatest miscarriage of justice in NFL history).

According to the wiki page on the game (and I know that's not the final word on anything), computer analysis was conducted on all films of the play afterwards and it was determined that it wasn't a forward lateral. I agree that when seeing it live, it certainly appeared to be a forward pass, however.
   23. PepTech Posted: September 11, 2009 at 05:39 PM (#3319774)
So what will Jeter do for an encore?


Save two women from drowning? No, that's taken (If Nomar Garciaparra had broken the record, ...)
   24. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: September 11, 2009 at 05:51 PM (#3319787)
Pilot down a plane on the Hudson River?
   25. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: September 11, 2009 at 06:14 PM (#3319819)
It causes me no end of amusement that you got the NFL one dead wrong. By far the worst one was Houston blowing a 35-3 lead in Buffalo in 1993.

Frank Reich! My dad and I were so excited about that game, but come halftime I didn't want to watch anymore. My dad, a die hard Bills fan, would have none of it and convinced me to continue watching. Needless to say, my Dad is totally awesome. A few weeks later, my he bought me the commemorative sweatshirt. I was the proudest damn Bills fan in California.
   26. RJ in TO Posted: September 11, 2009 at 06:19 PM (#3319824)
According to the wiki page on the game (and I know that's not the final word on anything), computer analysis was conducted on all films of the play afterwards and it was determined that it wasn't a forward lateral. I agree that when seeing it live, it certainly appeared to be a forward pass, however.


Can you give me a good reason as to why I should let what actually happened interfere with what I want to believe? I've already held this belief for a decade. I'm not going to change it just because of "evidence" or "truth."
   27. kubiwan Posted: September 11, 2009 at 06:19 PM (#3319826)
It causes me no end of amusement that you got the NFL one dead wrong. By far the worst one was Houston blowing a 35-3 lead in Buffalo in 1993. The AFC title game you mention was only 21-3 at one point and 21-10 at the half, and was only the 4th largest playoff comeback in the NFL.


Joe,
I am quite well aware that the AFC title game was not the biggest comeback. I know about the Bills/Oilers and watched the 49ers come back from 24 down to the Giants in 2002, though I am blanking on what the third one would be. But I do consider the Pats to be the greater choke given the circumstances -- it was a conference title game (and quasi-Super Bowl as either team would have been a solid fav over the Bears), while Bills/Oilers and 49ers/Giants were merely wildcard games (the third would have be either a wildcard or divisional game). Pats/Colts is the only time that a team blew a lead of more than 2 TDs in a game of that magnitude.

PS -- It was 21-6 at the half.
   28. Srul Itza Posted: September 11, 2009 at 06:37 PM (#3319854)
Of course, Tim might be like me and absolutely love it when the Yankee fanboys go crazy, so it's all good.


OMG! Craig's a troll.

Of course, since he's only trolling Yankee fans, it's all good.
   29. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: September 11, 2009 at 06:39 PM (#3319855)
According to the wiki page on the game (and I know that's not the final word on anything), computer analysis was conducted on all films of the play afterwards and it was determined that it wasn't a forward lateral.


Dear old dad would tell the computers to shove it.
   30. RJ in TO Posted: September 11, 2009 at 06:40 PM (#3319859)
Dear old me firmly agrees with dear old dad.
   31. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 11, 2009 at 07:21 PM (#3319899)
Unless Jeter puts up another MVP type season or craters completely in 2010, I'm guessing they'll settle around 3 years/$45-50M.

That seems about right.
   32. zack Posted: September 11, 2009 at 07:30 PM (#3319910)
The best part about Frank Reich (yearly early-playoff savior) was that, at the time, he held the record for greatest comeback in NCAA history as well.
   33. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral Idiot Posted: September 11, 2009 at 07:39 PM (#3319924)
The best part about Frank Reich (yearly early-playoff savior) was that, at the time, he held the record for greatest comeback in NCAA history as well.

Yep, the 1984 Maryland-Miami game. What are the odds against one Quarterback leading both of those comebacks---and a journeyman QB, no less?
   34. RJ in TO Posted: September 11, 2009 at 07:45 PM (#3319934)
and a journeyman QB, no less?


To be fair to Mr. Reich, there was a generally held belief that he could have started for a more than respectable number of teams in the NFL, and it was only because he was stuck behind Jim Kelly (and in Buffalo, due to the free agency rules at the time) that he never really got the chance.
   35. Doug's Hopkin off the band wagon Posted: September 11, 2009 at 09:42 PM (#3320046)
Until Jeter gets a disease or candy bar named after him, he hasn't truly joined the Yankee pantheon of immortals.


Or an ursine trencherman or the cracker race...
   36. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: September 11, 2009 at 09:53 PM (#3320058)
By far the worst one was Houston blowing a 35-3 lead in Buffalo in 1993.


That remains the largest deficit overcome, sure, but doesn't the loss of the undefeated, unstoppable, offensive monsters that were the 2007 Patriots in the SB count as the most shocking upset? **


Just a miserable game to watch as an Eagles fan living in VT (I equate the Patriots and Brady to the Yankees and Jeter, speaking as a Sox fan). I am still conflicted as to whether I should be *happy* that the ####### Giants won. My only real solace is that hopefully Manning's ridiculous contract he got this year will eff their salary cap.

**EDIT: Which ties that whole failure thing back to Mr. Goat-Boy Brady.
   37. bunyon Posted: September 11, 2009 at 09:59 PM (#3320063)
Can you give me a good reason as to why I should let what actually happened interfere with what I want to believe? I've already held this belief for a decade. I'm not going to change it just because of "evidence" or "truth."


It's good that you still have the fine memory of Norwood's Super Bowl winning kick to keep you warm.
   38. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral Idiot Posted: September 11, 2009 at 09:59 PM (#3320064)
doesn't the loss of the undefeated, unstoppable, offensive monsters that were the 2007 Patriots in the SB count as the most shocking upset?

Not really, since the Giants played the Patriots to a near standstill in Week 16 and had already won three tough road games in the playoffs. Though if the Super Bowl had been played in midseason I'd agree with you.

The only truly "shocking" Super Bowl upset remains the Jets and the Colts, and even there it was only shocking to NFL fans who hadn't realized how much the AFL had improved. And even at that, it took the Chiefs' easy win over the 16 point favored Vikings in SB IV to convince most NFL oldtimers that the AFL was for real.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Obi One Kenobi Nil
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Buy MLB playoff tickets, plus 2011 World Series, 2011 ALCS tickets and NLCS game tickets. We also have Texas Rangers playoff schedule, tickets to Red Sox games and Yankees game tickets. Plus, buy Phillies baseball tickets, Tigers playoff tickets and the biggies like ALDS baseball tickets and 2011 NLDS tickets.

Demarini, Easton and TPX Baseball Bats

 

 

 

AllianceTickets.com has cheap MLB Tickets. Get all your Colorado Rockies Tickets, Seattle Mariners Tickets, San Francisco Giants Tickets and all your favorite baseball tickets here. We also carry cheap Denver Broncos Tickets, Seattle Seahawks Tickets and Denver Nuggets Tickets.

Page rendered in 0.2890 seconds
54 querie(s) executed