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Monday, January 30, 2012

Sickels: Career Prospect Retrospective: Pat Burrell

Pat Burrell announced his retirement today after a 13-year major league career.

Let’s take a look at what he was like as a prospect.

Pat Burrell was the first-overall pick in the 1998 draft. A star slugger at the University of Miami, Burrell hit .432 with 17 homers for the Hurricanes, although he was limited to 113 at-bats by a back injury. He was considered a top slugging prospect but his pure hitting skills were fairly respected as well, and he wasn’t expected to need long in the minors. The Phillies moved him from third base (his college position) over to first base in pro ball, partly because he wasn’t much of a fielder and partly because they already had Scott Rolen.

...His best season was at age 25 in 2002, when he hit .282/.376/.544 with 37 homers, 116 RBI, 145 OPS+, and a career-best 4.9 WAR. Overall, Burrell finished at 21.9 WAR with a career line of .253/.361/.472, 116 OPS+, with 292 career homers in 1640 games.

Most Similar Players to Burrell by Sim Score: Jeromy Burnitz, Matt Stairs, Jay Buhner, Greg Vaughn, Danny Tartabull, Roy Sievers, Troy Glaus, Jeff Burroughs, David Justice, and Tim Salmon. This group makes sense: productive sluggers with low batting averages. Burrell’s 21.9 WAR puts him in company with Joe Carter (22.2), Steve Kemp (22.1), Tito Francona (21.7), and Jeff Burroughs (21.6).

It is interesting that Jeff Burroughs shows up as a good comp for Burrell, given that Burroughs was also a first-overall pick (1969).

As for the Bagwell/Karros comp, Bagwell hit .297/.408/.540, OPS+149, 83.9 WAR, while Karros hit .268/.325/.454, OPS+107, 20.7 WAR. Obviously Burrell was closer to Karros, if slightly better.

Thanks to Sy..

Repoz Posted: January 30, 2012 at 06:14 PM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 30, 2012 at 06:45 PM (#4049873)
Really odd how quickly he fell off a cliff. Here's the Transaction Oracle on his signing and the response is overwhelmingly that it was a great signing.

Speaking of retrospectives, this recent post by John Sickels was very depressing to me as the fan of a team that has its future pegged to its prospects.
   2. Guapo Posted: January 30, 2012 at 06:46 PM (#4049875)
It is interesting that Jeff Burroughs shows up as a good comp for Burrell, given that Burroughs was also a first-overall pick (1969).


Coincidentally, Burroughs' son Sean was also a first round pick in 1998.

Drafted-and-signed in 1998, with over 15 career WAR:

1. C.C. Sabathia- 49.8
2. Mark Buehrle- 46.3 (38th round draft pick!)
3. J.D. Drew- 45.9
4. Matt Holliday- 30.9
5. Adam Dunn- 24
6. Aaron Rowand- 20.2
7. Pat Burrell-18.7
8. Brandon Inge- 17.9
9. Mark Mulder- 16.3
10. Austin Kearns- 15.8
11. Jack Wilson- 15.5
12. Carlos Pena- 15.2
   3. ValueArbitrageur Posted: January 30, 2012 at 06:53 PM (#4049878)
How can it be a career retrospective without mentioning his appearance as The Machine?
   4. OPS+ Posted: January 30, 2012 at 07:18 PM (#4049895)
Coincidentally, Burroughs' son Sean was also a first round pick in 1998.


Thank you for using coincidentally and not ironically. People use ironically in that circumstance so often these days and it drives me insane.
   5. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 30, 2012 at 07:27 PM (#4049899)
Burrell was the first prospect I ever went to a minor league game specifically to see.
   6. Walt Davis Posted: January 30, 2012 at 07:59 PM (#4049927)
1. C.C. Sabathia- 49.8
2. Mark Buehrle- 46.3 (38th round draft pick!)
3. J.D. Drew- 45.9
4. Matt Holliday- 30.9
5. Adam Dunn- 24
6. Aaron Rowand- 20.2
7. Pat Burrell-18.7
8. Brandon Inge- 17.9
9. Mark Mulder- 16.3
10. Austin Kearns- 15.8
11. Jack Wilson- 15.5
12. Carlos Pena- 15.2


Just think it's interesting to note how many BTF betes noires are in that list. Rowand, Inge, Kearns (a "flop"), Wilson. And those are guys in the top 12 careers from a year's draft. (OK, there may be some behind Pena still playing who could pass Kearns and Wilson.) So (a) don't be disappointed if some prospect's upside is Aaron Rowand -- that's a damn good player; and (b) don't get so excited when your team trades for somebody's #4 prospect.

Thank you for using coincidentally and not ironically. People use ironically in that circumstance so often these days and it drives me insane.

Blame Vin Scully. :-)
   7. thetailor Posted: January 30, 2012 at 11:37 PM (#4050078)
J.D. Drew has FIFTEEN more career WAR than Matt Holliday? Holy cow -- that's an easy $5 bucks earned if you can find a friend who knows WAR and is willing to bet you.
   8. Walt Davis Posted: January 31, 2012 at 12:12 AM (#4050089)
J.D. Drew has FIFTEEN more career WAR than Matt Holliday?

Understandably, Chone's algorithm deducts 10 WAR from anybody with the misfortune of being traded to or signed as an FA by Oakland.

Or ... Drew does have 1300 more PA (not sure I'd have guessed that) which adds about 5 WAR and Chone doesn't care much for Holliday's defense and loves Drew's which accounts for about 10 WAR. oWAR is 37 to 32.
   9. Eric J is Financed by a Rich Grandpa Posted: January 31, 2012 at 01:13 AM (#4050107)
J.D. Drew has FIFTEEN more career WAR than Matt Holliday? Holy cow -- that's an easy $5 bucks earned if you can find a friend who knows WAR and is willing to bet you.

In 2001, Drew hit .323/.414/.613, good for a 161 OPS+, in 109 games for the Cardinals, and posted 5.9 WAR; it was his third (somewhat) full season. Holliday, meanwhile, hit .275/.358/.475 in an injury-shortened second stint at high-A. His MLB debut wasn't until 3 years later.

I'm more shocked that Holliday and Drew were drafted in the same year than at the WAR difference between them.
   10. thetailor Posted: January 31, 2012 at 01:27 AM (#4050110)
Ah yes, no college for Holliday so there is a four year gap. Still though, Holliday only posted 5.0 WAR last year (but 6+ the year before) ... he may be hard pressed to match the much-maligned Drew even when he reached Drew's current age.

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