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Monday, December 17, 2012

Sickels:  New York Mets Top 20 Prospects for 2013

THIS LIST ASSUMES THE DICKEY TRADE GOES THROUGH AS PROJECTED.

1) Travis D’Arnaud, C, Grade A-: Borderline B+. ***
2) Zack Wheeler, RHP, Grade A-: Borderline B+.  ***
3) Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Grade A-: Borderline B+.  ***
4) Wilmer Flores, 3B-2B, Grade B+: Borderline B.  ***
5) Michael Fulmer, RHP, Grade B: Borderline B ***
6) Jeurys Familia, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline B.  ***
7) Luis Mateo, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline B.  ***
8) Brandon Nimmo, OF, Grade B ***
9) Gavin Cecchini, SS, Grade B ***
10) Rafael Montero, RHP, Grade B-:  ***
11) Domingo Tapia, RHP, Grade B-:  ***

 

Arbitol Dijaler Posted: December 17, 2012 at 08:52 AM | 78 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mets, prospect reports, prospects, scouting

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   1. PreservedFish Posted: December 17, 2012 at 12:46 PM (#4326701)
Love that the team finally has lots of hard throwers. It's been so many years since that's been the case.
   2. formerly dp Posted: December 17, 2012 at 12:52 PM (#4326713)
I'm pleased to see Sickels so high on Flores. If he can handle 2B, that will be huge going forward. Hoping he starts the season at AAA and can arrive for 2014.
   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 17, 2012 at 01:03 PM (#4326732)
Big improvement, but they still desperetely need some young bats.
   4. PreservedFish Posted: December 17, 2012 at 01:10 PM (#4326744)
Flores looks to me like one of those players that will get lost in between positions - not hit enough for OF, not field enough for IF. I guess that makes him similar to the guy in front of him, Daniel Murphy. They could make an awkward little platoon at 2B maybe.
   5. Conor Posted: December 17, 2012 at 01:13 PM (#4326748)
I'm not sure how often you see straight prospect for prospect trades but the Mets might want to see what they can flip two of their youngish arms for. Would Syndeergard and Familia or something bring back a B+ or A- OF bat?
   6. formerly dp Posted: December 17, 2012 at 01:18 PM (#4326759)
Flores looks to me like one of those players that will get lost in between positions - not hit enough for OF, not field enough for IF.
At age 20, he hit .300/.349/.479 split evenly between high-A and AA. Murphy didn't hit AA until age 23. Unlike previous Met prospects, Flores is we;;-rated, young *and* starting to back that up with his performance. It would be tough for him to look as uncomfortable at 2B as Murphy does.
   7. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: December 17, 2012 at 01:24 PM (#4326763)
6 posts in 4h20m for a Mets prospect report? Circa 2007, it would have been 4m20s for 6 posts.

Unfortunately, I fear that the 2016 Phillies prospect report will go uncommented on.

awkward little platoon

A fine handle if one were so inclined.
   8. AJMcCringleberry Posted: December 17, 2012 at 01:25 PM (#4326764)
With Matt Harvey that looks like a good collection of young players. I'm hopeful for the future.
   9. JJ1986 Posted: December 17, 2012 at 01:26 PM (#4326768)
I'm not sure how often you see straight prospect for prospect trades but the Mets might want to see what they can flip two of their youngish arms for. Would Syndeergard and Familia or something bring back a B+ or A- OF bat?


He's not a prospect, but I'd see if they can send pitching prospects to the Angels for Bourjos.
   10. PreservedFish Posted: December 17, 2012 at 01:29 PM (#4326772)
In a fantasy world where the Mets actually have the type of money to spend commiserate with being a NY team in a brand new stadium and with its own tv network, Josh Hamilton might have been a reasonable target. But now I'll feel happy if they sign Nyjer Morgan.
   11. TomH Posted: December 17, 2012 at 01:41 PM (#4326798)
lotsa of young arms! This as exciting as the days of Pulsipher, Isringhausen, and Wilson!!
   12. Conor Posted: December 17, 2012 at 01:49 PM (#4326822)
In a fantasy world where the Mets actually have the type of money to spend commiserate with being a NY team in a brand new stadium and with its own tv network, Josh Hamilton might have been a reasonable target. But now I'll feel happy if they sign Nyjer Morgan.


yeah, couldn't they pretty much have say, Hamilton, Reyes, Dickey, and another OF bat (Swisher?)

I think I read the payroll is around $90 million right now. The first three guys I listed would put them around $135 million. There were 4 teams with payrolls over $150 million last year, so it wouldn't be a big deal for them to spend something like $15 million on Swisher. (Or $8 million on Melky).

How good is that team?
C Thole
1B Davis
2B Tejada (or murph?)
SS Reyes
3B Wright
OF you could play Hamilton in CF, or put him in a corner with Swisher/Melky and play Kirk in CF or something

Rotation would be Dickey, Santana, Niese, Harvey, and Gee.

That's at least a contending team, no? The Mets won 74 games last year. They got, and I am not making this up, about 4 WAR from all of their OF last year. Hamilton has been a solid 4 win player at his worst. (I'm going with fangraphs here). Swisher
s WAR's are hilarious; in 5 of the last 7 years he has been between 3.8 and 4.1, so pencil him in for around 4 as well. Or Melky, 3-4 WAR seems like a reasonable projection for him as well. And hopefully they could cobble together a few more WAR from the third OF spot (would help if they didn't play Duda or if Duda hit like he did in 2011 instead of 2012).

Mets got about 4.5 WAR from their middle IF rotation last year (basically Tejada/Quintinilla/Murphy/Cedeno). Reyes was 4.5 WAR last year, with the upside for some more. Tejada had 2.1 WAR last year in 114 games at SS, if you had him at secnd with Murph spelling him I could see closer to 3 WAR over the course of a full season.

So you're probably picking up 3 wins on the IF, maybe another 5-6 in the OF. Still seems like there is a little ways to go. (Though in my scenario I had the Mets spending arounf $150 million; the Phillies and Sox were closer to $170 million so you should theoretically have some more room to go to get another actual ML OF'r. But I thought things might look a little better than this, though it's obviously a very simplistic way of looking at things.
   13. Benji Posted: December 17, 2012 at 01:56 PM (#4326831)
I want to be optimistic but I wonder if we will hear " well, we couldn't afford to keep Harvey and D'Arnaud so we moved them for these great prospects" in 2 years. I don't want us to be a permanent feeder team that constantly rebuilds. Please give this 50 year Met fan a reason to believe.
   14. PreservedFish Posted: December 17, 2012 at 02:00 PM (#4326835)
I don't think Hamilton + Reyes makes them instant contenders or anything, but it's something like a 6 win bump, which puts them in the .500 area, within sniffing distance of competing for the playoffs. Some other smart moves, some nice surprises from Wheeler and friends and maybe you can realistically talk about being a good team in 2014.
   15. PreservedFish Posted: December 17, 2012 at 02:05 PM (#4326845)
I don't want us to be a permanent feeder team that constantly rebuilds. Please give this 50 year Met fan a reason to believe.


I do believe that Wilpon doesn't want this to happen - he considers the team to be the family legacy and really does want to win. But right now he's being forced to burglarize the team for his financial sins. Who knows how long it will last?
   16. thetailor Posted: December 17, 2012 at 03:14 PM (#4326933)
This is the best Mets Prospect list that I can recall, ever. Very exciting.
   17. thetailor Posted: December 17, 2012 at 03:19 PM (#4326942)
For reference, some recent BA Mets prospect lists over three-year increments.

2002

1. Aaron Heilman
2. Alex Escobar
3. Jose Reyes
4. Pat Strange
5. Billy Traber
6. Jae Seo
7. David Wright
8. Grant Roberts
9. Jaime Cerda
10. Neal Musser

2005

1. Lastings Milledge, of
2. Yusmeiro Petit, rhp
3. Gaby Hernandez, rhp
4. Mike Jacobs, c/1b
5. Philip Humber, rhp
6. Carlos Gomez, of
7. Fernando Martinez, of
8. Anderson Hernandez, ss/2b
9. Brian Bannister, rhp
10. Alay Soler, rhp

2008

1. Fernando Martinez, of
2. Deolis Guerra, rhp
3. Carlos Gomez, of
4. Kevin Mulvey, rhp
5. Eddie Kunz, rhp
6. Brant Rustich, rhp
7. Philip Humber, rhp
8. Jon Niese, lhp
9. Nathan Vineyard, lhp
10. Robert Parnell, rhp
   18. Ravecc Posted: December 17, 2012 at 03:32 PM (#4326961)
Good lord -- there was a universe where Jae Seo was a better prospect than David Wright?
   19. Ravecc Posted: December 17, 2012 at 03:35 PM (#4326964)
Have they ever tried Wilmer in LF? Surely he can't be as bad as The Daniel Murphy Experiment.

   20. PreservedFish Posted: December 17, 2012 at 04:24 PM (#4327035)
The 2002 list has a lot of big prospect names, but they were mostly there at the wrong time. Roberts, Strange and Escobar were all getting worse as they moved through the system, whereas Reyes and Wright were too young to have really distinguished themselves. Heilman and Traber were products of the "only draft polished college pitchers" philosophy, a philosophy that was considered pretty sound.

The 2008 one is embarrassing. Eddie Kunz at #5 really stands out as ugly. He wouldn't get close to this year's top 10.
   21. Ellis Valentine's Bright Future Posted: December 17, 2012 at 04:38 PM (#4327051)
As a Blue Jays fan I am scanning this list to find who the unnamed "non-elite prospect" in the deal might be. If the deal is as rumoured, it would not surprise me if one of the people heading to Toronto is on this list.

Hard to put myself out there and guess, but Cecchinia for Sierra perhaps? Jays could use a position prospect that can play middle infiled. Sierra is non-elite and is now being pushed aside by Toronto but would serve as a useful piece or placeholder for New York. Would New York erupt if Flores was the equalizer or he would be universally considered elite?

I was only barely aware of Flores, which meets my exact definition of non-elite. Plus I sort of figure that the way the rest of the deal stacks up Toronto will get the better of the "non-elite" swap to even it out a bit.



   22. formerly dp Posted: December 17, 2012 at 04:38 PM (#4327052)
Have they ever tried Wilmer in LF? Surely he can't be as bad as The Daniel Murphy Experiment.
Why would they? Unless you think the Mets have a long-term solution at 2B in Daniel Murphy, Flores has more value to the organization if he can play a solid 2B than he would as a LF. I do think it was telling of their seriousness about signing David Wright that they pushed Flores off of 3B midseason. Unlike Murphy, Flores started off as a middle infielder, so it's not exactly uncharted waters out there for him.
   23. JJ1986 Posted: December 17, 2012 at 04:44 PM (#4327055)
Cecchinia


Can't be traded.
   24. Ellis Valentine's Bright Future Posted: December 17, 2012 at 04:47 PM (#4327065)
Ahh - thank you. Wish I hadnt guessed this on another thread.
   25. JJ1986 Posted: December 17, 2012 at 04:53 PM (#4327080)
Daniel Muno might fit the same role. He's a SS/2B guy, low ceiling, but decent bat.
   26. Conor Posted: December 17, 2012 at 04:59 PM (#4327087)
Why would they? Unless you think the Mets have a long-term solution at 2B in Daniel Murphy, Flores has more value to the organization if he can play a solid 2B than he would as a LF.


My feeling, though I don't follow the minor leaguers really intently, is that Flores won't be able to hack it at second
   27. JJ1986 Posted: December 17, 2012 at 05:04 PM (#4327090)
Flores would be quite tall for a second baseman. Last year, only Neil Walker, DJ LeMahieu and Ben Zobrist were as tall and most 2B are a good 3-4 inches shorter.
   28. Walt Davis Posted: December 17, 2012 at 05:14 PM (#4327100)
2005

1. Lastings Milledge, of
2. Yusmeiro Petit, rhp
3. Gaby Hernandez, rhp
4. Mike Jacobs, c/1b
5. Philip Humber, rhp
6. Carlos Gomez, of
7. Fernando Martinez, of
8. Anderson Hernandez, ss/2b
9. Brian Bannister, rhp
10. Alay Soler, rhp


Oh man, the days when Mets fans were smoking crack. Milledge, Petit, Humber, Gomez and FMart on one list.
   29. formerly dp Posted: December 17, 2012 at 05:18 PM (#4327106)
Oh man, the days when Mets fans were smoking crack. Milledge, Petit, Humber, Gomez and FMart on one list.
Still, better than the days when the Met players were smoking crack...though those were some winning teams...
   30. PreservedFish Posted: December 17, 2012 at 05:23 PM (#4327110)
28 = accurate
   31. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: December 17, 2012 at 06:21 PM (#4327185)
As a Blue Jays fan I am scanning this list to find who the unnamed "non-elite prospect" in the deal might be. If the deal is as rumoured, it would not surprise me if one of the people heading to Toronto is on this list.


No idea if it's actually true, but Mike Francesa just said that the final guy the Mets are giving up is Mike Nickeas. He at least fits the "non-elite" part of the description.
   32. formerly dp Posted: December 17, 2012 at 06:37 PM (#4327196)
No idea if it's actually true, but Mike Francesa just said that the final guy the Mets are giving up is Mike Nickeas. He at least fits the "non-elite" part of the description.
That would be **awesome**!

Edit: Confirmed. OF Wulimer Becerra to the Mets.
Becerra batted .250/.359/.375 with no homers in 39 plate appearances this summer in the Gulf Coast League. The 18-year-old outfielder is about as raw as it gets.
   33. Elvis Posted: December 17, 2012 at 06:45 PM (#4327203)
Becerra may be raw but he got a $1.3 million signing bonus so obviously he's got some tools. For a comparison the Mets signed Rosario for $1.7 million and he was Enrique Rojas' No. 2 Latin America prospect.

For a guy who was supposed to be non-elite, this sounds like a terrific get. Especially as it apparently cost Mike Nickeas.
   34. PreservedFish Posted: December 17, 2012 at 07:02 PM (#4327215)
Sweet!
   35. PreservedFish Posted: December 17, 2012 at 07:03 PM (#4327216)
Nice walk rate for a raw as it gets kid.
   36. Orange & Blue Velvet Posted: December 17, 2012 at 07:26 PM (#4327234)
Nice walk rate for a raw as it gets kid.

Klaw says he's got an idea at the plate and a good swing.
   37. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 17, 2012 at 07:49 PM (#4327241)
That's 39 plate appearances in the GCL for Becerra, folks. No one has any real idea what that means.

The reports I've seen suggest that he's going to end up in left field, he doesn't throw especially well, he's not likely to retain his speed, and that he's got "projectible" power. Whether that translates to real power remains to be seen, but it sounds very much like the ceiling isn't especially high.

-- MWE
   38. PreservedFish Posted: December 17, 2012 at 08:17 PM (#4327259)
That's 39 plate appearances in the GCL for Becerra, folks.


Yeah, I did not realize that at first.
   39. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 17, 2012 at 08:59 PM (#4327286)
Milledge just re-upped for another year in Japan. He was solid there last year - it's nice to see him doing well.
   40. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: December 17, 2012 at 09:59 PM (#4327319)
This team is going to suck for decades considering it doesn't seem to be able to afford a $60m roster in 2014. I expect Harvey and such to be traded away for new prospects once they start getting expensive. The Wilpons have destroyed this team for at least a decade to come.
   41. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: December 17, 2012 at 10:18 PM (#4327329)
considering it doesn't seem to be able to afford a $60m roster in 2014.


Baseless.
   42. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 17, 2012 at 10:38 PM (#4327343)
But I thought things might look a little better than this, though it's obviously a very simplistic way of looking at things.
It's always an interesting exercise. One reason the team would be even better than the 150m version you projected is that it's leas likely to waste money. When you have to go cheap, you get iffy relievers like Alderson picked up last offseason. When you have more to spend you can pick up more reliable guys at the margins, or pick up two iffy guys instead of one, with obvious improvements to your chances.

One reason the club isn't as good as you might have expected when you started spending 150m is that 20m and 16m were already in the toilet for Santana and Bay. That 150m was more like 115m. Big difference.
   43. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 17, 2012 at 10:43 PM (#4327347)
For reference, some recent BA Mets prospect lists over three-year increments.
[gags]

Are 2005 and 2008 at all typical? It's not typical that a team gets a Wright and Reyes out of its top ten, of course, but once they graduated the cupboard was incredibly bare.
   44. PreservedFish Posted: December 17, 2012 at 10:49 PM (#4327353)
For a while there the Mets always had one or two marquee prospects (Reyes, Wright, Milledge, Kazmir) and very poor depth.
   45. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 17, 2012 at 11:09 PM (#4327372)
@44--PF, that's consistent with something I've noticed about the team over the last decade. Most teams have a bunch of shitty, homegrown players in the minors they can call up in times of desperation. The Mets were often so thin they had to go outside the organization to get those shitty players to throw into the breach. That seems consistent with the top heaviness of the Minaya Mets.

I was never high on Milledge, but Kazmir was definitely the real thing.
   46. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 17, 2012 at 11:13 PM (#4327374)
How many here noticed Fernando! having himself a nice little bit of a year for Houston?

Mostly healthy, and while most of it was in the minors it was a solid season, and when he was up he showed a little punch at the plate. And still only 23. Not bad, and far from too late to put together a career. At 23 most players haven't reached the majors, and he's already got parts of four seasons in the bigs.
   47. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 18, 2012 at 02:10 AM (#4327453)
I was following Fernando loosely and his numbers were pretty bad at the MLB level but it looks like he had an excellent September. He still isn't displaying great plate discipline but the power's always been there. Good luck to him.
   48. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 18, 2012 at 06:40 AM (#4327489)
In the linked article, Sickels reports it's all over and done:

Mets Trade R.A. Dickey to Blue Jays for Prospects

The New York Mets and Toronto Blue Jays have reportedly completed their trade negotiations. As expected, the Mets are sending knuckleballing right-hander R.A Dickey north of the border, accompanied by catcher Josh Thole. In exchange, the Mets are receiving top catching prospect Travis D'Arnaud, top pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard, and veteran catcher John Buck.

The trade was completed on Monday. The Mets also sent veteran reserve catcher Mike Nickeas to Toronto, while the Blue Jays sent young outfielder Wuilmer Becerra to New York.
So it was Becerra, after all.

Sickels says,

Wuilmer Becerra, OF:The Blue Jays spent $1,300,000 to sign Wuilmer Becerra out of Venezuela in 2011. They brought him directly to North America in 2012, skipping the Latin American summer leagues. Unfortunately, he got into just 11 games in the Gulf Coast League, his season ending early after being hit in the face by a pitch.

Becerra is tall and lanky at 6-4, 190, but runs very well and could be a 20+ steal guy at higher levels if all goes well. He also has above-average power potential, and flashes good plate discipline. However, his swing mechanics are inconsistent and he may be more ripper than hitter. His arm isn't very good, so he profiles best at left field. At Becerra's age, anything can happen. Keep in mind that he wouldn't even be drafted until 2013 if he'd been born in the United States.He was born October 1st, 1994.


So, barely 18.

Ah, to be that young.

I'd rather players that young not already be limited to the corners, but if Johnny Damon's arm can spend time in CF, anyone's can.
   49. zack Posted: December 18, 2012 at 10:14 AM (#4327528)
If they're moving Nickeas, are they going to bring in another C? D'Arnaud doesn't start in the majors, right?
   50. Conor Posted: December 18, 2012 at 10:26 AM (#4327539)
@44--PF, that's consistent with something I've noticed about the team over the last decade. Most teams have a bunch of shitty, homegrown players in the minors they can call up in times of desperation. The Mets were often so thin they had to go outside the organization to get those shitty players to throw into the breach. That seems consistent with the top heaviness of the Minaya Mets.


That definitely seems right, from memory.

The way I look at the 2006-2008 Mets is this: If you use fWAR, over that period the Mets had 3 of the 8 best players in baseball; Wright was 4th, Beltran 5th, and Reyes 8th. No other team had more than 1 player in the top 10, and they made the playoffs in one of those three years and while they came close the other 2 years, they won below 90 games both years.

I'm not sure there is a better way to explain how bad Omar was at filling in the gaps of the roster.
   51. formerly dp Posted: December 18, 2012 at 10:37 AM (#4327545)
Mostly healthy, and while most of it was in the minors it was a solid season, and when he was up he showed a little punch at the plate. And still only 23. Not bad, and far from too late to put together a career. At 23 most players haven't reached the majors, and he's already got parts of four seasons in the bigs.
I still don't understand why it was necessary to cut him loose. He'd be the starting RF going into 2013 if he was still on the roster.

The scouting report on Becerra sounds pretty good-- of course, not a guy you're going to plan the future of the franchise around, but having talented OFs in the system is better than not.
   52. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: December 18, 2012 at 11:05 AM (#4327577)
If they're moving Nickeas, are they going to bring in another C? D'Arnaud doesn't start in the majors, right?


why the hell not? He'll be 24 in February and he's already played in AA and AAA
   53. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: December 18, 2012 at 11:15 AM (#4327590)
How many here noticed Fernando! having himself a nice little bit of a year for Houston?


Umm, no?
He had a real good 2+ weeks in September
His career MLB OPS+ is all the way up to a lofty 74

.314/.367/.507 in AAA looks nice, until you notice that the league hit .278/.345/.430, he was about the 4th best hitter on his own team. 44th in the PCl in OPS,

Not hopeless, but looking more and more like a 4th OF/ starter on a bad team type
   54. formerly dp Posted: December 18, 2012 at 11:27 AM (#4327606)
but looking more and more like a 4th OF/ starter on a bad team type
Sure. So he'd be a good fit for the current Met team. In fairness, I think there was some cause for hope with the Mets OF situation coming into 2012. No one really took a step forward though, and Puello stagnated. Den Dekker managed to take a step forward and then one back in the same season, as did Nieuwenhuis. Duda showed he can't hit enough to carry his glove, and Bay cratered even more than could be expected.
   55. PreservedFish Posted: December 18, 2012 at 11:29 AM (#4327609)
Jeff Francoeur would be our starting RF.
   56. zack Posted: December 18, 2012 at 11:37 AM (#4327618)
why the hell not? He'll be 24 in February and he's already played in AA and AAA


I'd give him at least a month in a AAA park that's not on the moon, he's only had 67 games there. That said, I just realized I have no idea where the Mets' AAA team is since they pissed off the Bisons, did they get banished to the PCL?

Oh, heh. Nevermind then, they're in Las Vegas now.
   57. formerly dp Posted: December 18, 2012 at 11:45 AM (#4327620)
Jeff Francoeur would be our starting RF.
He'd be starting in both RF and CF. At the same time.
   58. PreservedFish Posted: December 18, 2012 at 11:51 AM (#4327628)
D'Arnaud still needs to prove his health. Season ending injury. Set back the arb clock. No reason to rush him.
   59. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: December 18, 2012 at 11:55 AM (#4327633)
No one really took a step forward though


On the whole Den Dekker... didn't regress :-)

and... I really cannot find a Met minor league OF at any level who played better in 2012 than before...
not a one...

Not an OF but Aderlin R was showing signs of life...

and oh, lookie, they have the second coming of Thole already, Camden Maron...
   60. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: December 18, 2012 at 12:17 PM (#4327649)
Cory Vaughn was a bit better in 2012, but has a long way to go before he looks like a major leaguer.
   61. formerly dp Posted: December 18, 2012 at 12:24 PM (#4327653)
Cory Vaughn was a bit better in 2012, but has a long way to go before he looks like a major leaguer.
Where's Sam M. when we need him?
   62. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: December 18, 2012 at 12:59 PM (#4327682)
Cory Vaughn was a bit better in 2012, but has a long way to go before he looks like a major leaguer.


21st in the FSL in OPS at age 23, and I made fun of FMart for being 44th in the PCL at age 23...

Does anyone know anything about Wil Tovar, all I can see is that he's young and seems to have a decent eye...
   63. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 18, 2012 at 02:59 PM (#4327808)
How many here noticed Fernando! having himself a nice little bit of a year for Houston?

Umm, no?
He had a real good 2+ weeks in September
His career MLB OPS+ is all the way up to a lofty 74

.314/.367/.507 in AAA looks nice, until you notice that the league hit .278/.345/.430, he was about the 4th best hitter on his own team. 44th in the PCl in OPS,

Not hopeless, but looking more and more like a 4th OF/ starter on a bad team type
Hater.

So the 100 PAs he had with a 38 OPS+ as a 20 year old sits big with you, huh?

a nice little bit of a year
a 105 OPS+ fits that definition, for a 23 year old. Now tell us how his solid minor league OBP, long a weakness, is meaningless.

Fucking Mets fans. You guys have to piss all over prospects even after they leave the team and start picking up speed.
   64. formerly dp Posted: December 18, 2012 at 03:24 PM (#4327844)
####### Mets fans. You guys have to piss all over prospects even after they leave the team and start picking up speed.
Were you unable to read Russlan's #47?
   65. Dr. House Posted: December 18, 2012 at 03:24 PM (#4327845)
One of Fernando's biggest problems is that he hits a bunch of ground balls. It's hard to find very many batters that have above average power while showing a significant ground ball tendency. We know that as batters approach their offensive peaks their power increases along the way, and along with that comes an increased fly ball tendency. Fernando has shown no such increase in FBs as the years have gone by.

Players are capable of a sudden shift, and if Fernando has one while maintaining his extra-base rate per FB, he would be pretty interesting but you could say that about a whole lot of guys...
   66. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: December 18, 2012 at 03:35 PM (#4327861)
So the 100 PAs he had with a 38 OPS+ as a 20 year old sits big with you, huh?


no,

He's a corner OF whose brightest bright spot (statistically) of the past 3 years was a measly 130 PAs in Houston last year

Now tell us how his solid minor league OBP, long a weakness, is meaningless.

His walk rate still sucks, his 2012 OBP in AAA was driven by a BABIP spike.

Happy now?
You guys have to piss all over prospects even after they leave the team and start picking up speed.

I don't piss over all prospects, just the ones I think others are overrating, don't even get me started about Puello...

picking up speed? His time in AAA, adjusting for park/league does not show any improvement over 2009-2011
his k/bb/PA is remarkably consistent- unfortunately it's been consistently poor

OTOH, he's not obviously regressing like Marte was at the same age, but you really gotta worry about the stagnation
   67. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: December 18, 2012 at 03:44 PM (#4327873)
Oh, heh. Nevermind then, they're in Las Vegas now.


Most Met prospects have NEVER played in any offensive environment as hitter friendly as LV (NCAA not included) -
I mean we were in New Orleans a few years ago- but that is the absolute worst hitter's park in the PCL hands down- so that wasn't much better - from a raw numbers POV, than Norfolk

but Las Vegas?

Guys like Zack Lutz, Eric Campbell and Josh Satin could put up some real nice looking numbers there- it won't really mean anything of course...


The guy to really watch there is Flores of course (if he starts there)- he seems to have this even/good, odd/bad year [pattern going on, 2013 would be a real good time for him to break that pattern
   68. Yonder Alonso in misguided trousers (cardinal) Posted: December 18, 2012 at 03:56 PM (#4327885)
OTOH, he's not obviously regressing like Marte was at the same age, but you really gotta worry about the stagnation


Do you mean Jefry Marte who just got traded? If so he's Oakland's problem now.
   69. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 18, 2012 at 04:17 PM (#4327912)
I think he meant Andy Marte, the guy who was supposed to be the next great Braves star.

I don't like that Marte deal. Cowgill is just filler, someone you should be able to sign as a minor league free agent. Marte is not a great prospect at this point but he was 21 in AA ball last year. Ugh.
   70. formerly dp Posted: December 18, 2012 at 05:14 PM (#4327957)
I don't like that Marte deal. Cowgill is just filler, someone you should be able to sign as a minor league free agent. Marte is not a great prospect at this point but he was 21 in AA ball last year. Ugh.
My thoughts to the letter. Though I have a feeling Cowgill will get around 400 ABs for the 2013 Mets.
==
I mean we were in New Orleans a few years ago- but that is the absolute worst hitter's park in the PCL hands down- so that wasn't much better - from a raw numbers POV, than Norfolk
I don't like them being in an extreme hitter's environment-- it can't be good for the development of either the hitters or the pitchers. I've had this problem following the Jays' system since they relocated. That said, it would be awesome if Flores put up gaudy numbers there.

I sort of missed the story-- how did the Mets end up as the last one standing in AAA musical chairs? Seems like with the population density in the northeast they could find a closer home for their AAA squad. Kick the Nats out of Syracuse, or something.
I don't piss over all prospects, just the ones I think others are overrating, don't even get me started about Puello...
Puello's the future of the franchise. What's not to like?
   71. Walt Davis Posted: December 18, 2012 at 05:31 PM (#4327970)
####### Mets fans. You guys have to piss all over prospects

Huh? As a group, Mets fans around here are the biggest prospect fanboys we've got. In particular, FMart love was rampant.
   72. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: December 18, 2012 at 05:31 PM (#4327972)
Do you mean Jefry Marte who just got traded? If so he's Oakland's problem now.


no, I was talking about FMart who seems to have stagnated from 2009-2012...
I guess that could also apply to Marte, but Marte's on field performance has never been vaguely interesting-

If FMart improved by 10%- he might actually be an interesting young player- if Marte improved by 10% he'd, well he might be able to help a AA team...

Regarding Cowgill... did you know that league average in the PCL in 2011 was .286/.359/.448?
Did you know that Dan's minor league park multiplier fro Reno in 2011 was 1.13?
You have to take those factors into account when looking at Cowgills' 2011 line in Reno (.354/.430/.554)
basically adjusting for league and park he wasn't quite as good as FMart was in Oklahoma in 2012- and even adjusting for league and park 2011 was an outlier for Cowgill- whereas that's pretty much what FMart does in AAA.

So if someone wants me to say something good about FMart- here goes, he's much much much better than Cowgill


   73. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: December 18, 2012 at 05:33 PM (#4327973)
Puello's the future of the franchise. What's not to like?


He's a poor man's version of Carlos Gomez (and I still can't believe that CarGom was the centerpiece of the Johann deal- sure Santana's arm ended up falling off, but still...)
   74. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: December 18, 2012 at 05:34 PM (#4327975)
I think he meant Andy Marte, the guy who was supposed to be the next great Braves star.


yes, Jefry hasn't reached FMart's current age yet

   75. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: December 18, 2012 at 05:39 PM (#4327979)
Huh? As a group, Mets fans around here are the biggest prospect fanboys we've got. In particular, FMart love was rampant.


As a Mets fan I've always felt the need to rain on other Met fanboys' parades, since they are usually so irrationally exuberant- I particularly hate when the fanboys get all googly eyed at the speedy tools goof de jure...

Of course I'm not down on all Mets prospects, I was irrationally exuberant towards Milledge and Jacobs when they were prospects, Mike Carp...
   76. formerly dp Posted: December 18, 2012 at 05:43 PM (#4327988)
He's a poor man's version of Carlos Gomez (and I still can't believe that CarGom was the centerpiece of the Johann deal- sure Santana's arm ended up falling off, but still...)
That's the best you can do?

I think Puello has Carlos Beltran written all over him. Your turn.
   77. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 18, 2012 at 06:00 PM (#4328000)
I think Puello has Carlos Beltran written all over him. Your turn.

That was a strnge tatoo for him to get.
   78. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 19, 2012 at 02:38 AM (#4328281)
Were you unable to read Russlan's #47?
Not a fan of parody, I see.

####### Mets fans. You guys have to piss all over prospects

Huh? As a group, Mets fans around here are the biggest prospect fanboys we've got. In particular, FMart love was rampant.
So much for omitting the " /sarcasm " tag in the future. I did find the past adulation a bit much, but now that he just had, in light of his longstanding weaknesses (durability and getting on base), a season where he was mostly healthy, and where he improved his ability to get on base, it seemed odd to not acknowledge that, and odd to point to 100 terrible ML PAs at an age when most guys are in A ball as though those PAs had any bearing at all on his current status.

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